ATL: Ex-DANIELLE - Advisories

[cycloneye]

Sandy, here is the first advisory.!!

CMAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010
2100 UTC SAT AUG 21 2010

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 32.1W AT 21/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 32.1W AT 21/2100Z
AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.8N 31.8W

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 11.5N 33.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 12.6N 35.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 13.6N 38.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 14.4N 41.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 105SE 75SW 105NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 17.5N 47.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 60SE 45SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 90SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 21.0N 52.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 24.5N 55.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.0N 32.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

WTNT41 KNHC 212031
TCDAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010
500 PM EDT SAT AUG 21 2010

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SOUTHWEST OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS BECOME CONSIDERABLY BETTER ORGANIZED
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE LOW APPEARS TO HAVE BECOME
MORE SEPARATED FROM THE LARGE AREA OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WHICH HAS
BEEN PRESENT OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC FOR THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS....THOUGH IT IS STILL A BIT ELONGATED TO THE NORTHEAST. A LONG
CURVED BAND OF CONVECTION ALSO WRAPS AROUND THE SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE 25 KT...WHICH
AGREES WITH DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB/SAB OF T1.5...25
KT...AND A 25 KT ASCAT PASS FROM THIS MORNING.

A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR THE
DEPRESSION...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE ONLY WEAK TO MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY
SHEAR FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. COMBINED WITH WARM SSTS...AT LEAST
STEADY STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED UNTIL THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. BY THAT TIME...SOME INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS
POSSIBLE AS THE CYCLONE APPROACHES THE MID-OCEANIC TROUGH. THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR SUCH A WEAK
SYSTEM WITH ALL RELIABLE GUIDANCE MAKING THE DEPRESSION A HURRICANE
WITHIN A FEW DAYS. THE NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS/LGEM
MODELS...SHOWING A LARGE POWERFUL HURRICANE OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC OCEAN IN A FEW DAYS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/7. A WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION WITH
INCREASING FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED AS THE DEPRESSION LEAVES THE
STRONG WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ENVIRONMENT OF THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC
AND BECOMES STEERED BY A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN.
MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW THE CYCLONE TURNING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
DUE TO A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE ALONG 50W IN ABOUT 3 DAYS. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CLUSTERED AROUND THIS SOLUTION...WITH THE BIG
OUTLIERS TO THE NORTHEAST BEING THE CMC AND THE ECMWF MODELS. THESE
MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM MOVING NORTHWEST SOON...WHICH ALLOWS THE
SYSTEM TO RECURVE TOWARD THE NORTH DUE TO A TROUGH ALONG 50W. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO...BUT SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF...THE
DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 21/2100Z 11.0N 32.1W 25 KT
12HR VT 22/0600Z 11.5N 33.2W 35 KT
24HR VT 22/1800Z 12.6N 35.4W 45 KT
36HR VT 23/0600Z 13.6N 38.2W 55 KT
48HR VT 23/1800Z 14.4N 41.4W 65 KT
72HR VT 24/1800Z 17.5N 47.5W 85 KT
96HR VT 25/1800Z 21.0N 52.0W 95 KT
120HR VT 26/1800Z 24.5N 55.5W 95 KT

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[cycloneye]

000
WTNT21 KNHC 220236
TCMAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010
0300 UTC SUN AUG 22 2010

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 32.6W AT 22/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 32.6W AT 22/0300Z
AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 32.3W

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 12.0N 33.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 12.9N 36.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 13.8N 38.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 14.7N 41.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 18.0N 47.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 55SE 40SW 55NW.
34 KT...140NE 110SE 80SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 21.5N 51.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 25.0N 55.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.3N 32.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN

[Chacor]

WTNT41 KNHC 220243
TCDAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010
1100 PM AST SAT AUG 21 2010

CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE AND A 2202 UTC SSMIS MICROWAVE OVERPASS SHOW
IMPROVED CURVED BANDING...PARTICULARLY OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE CYCLONE. ALTHOUGH DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS A BIT LIMITED OVER
THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE...A 2300 UTC ASCAT PASS INDICATED A MORE
SYMMETRIC CIRCULATION THAN EARLIER NOTED...AND BELIEVABLE 25 KT
WINDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. OUTFLOW OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
AREA OF THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE IMPROVING AND HAS BECOME MORE
DIFFLUENT. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 2.0
AND 1.5 RESPECTIVELY. BASED ON THE PREMISE THAT THE WINDS ARE
PROBABLY A LITTLE STRONGER IN THE CONVECTIVE BANDING TO THE WEST
AND NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED UP
TO 30 KT.

THE CYCLONE SHOULD GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN AS IT REMAINS OVER WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND WITHIN A RELATIVELY LOW NORTHEASTERLY
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT DURING...AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS. THE SHIPS
AND THE GFDL CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BECOME A
HURRICANE WITHIN 3 DAYS...AND THIS IS ALSO INDICATED IN THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST. THROUGH THE REMAINING PERIOD...INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED OVER THE TRACK IN RESPONSE TO A MID
TO UPPER TROUGH MOVING OFF OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AROUND DAY 5.
SUBSEQUENTLY...THE INTENSITY FORECAST INDICATES ONLY MODEST
STRENGTHENING DURING THIS TIME-FRAME.

THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...OR...290/7. THE DEEP
TRADES ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE
DEPRESSION NOW APPEAR TO BE THE MORE DOMINANT STEERING
MECHANISM...WITH LESS OF AN INFLUENCE FROM THE SOUTHWESTERLY
MONSOONAL FLOW. DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
RIDGE STEERING THE CYCLONE IN A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH
DAY 3. AFTERWARD...A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS INDICATED IN THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST AS A DEEP-LAYER MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVES OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND BREAKS DOWN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...AND IS BASED ON THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 22/0300Z 11.3N 32.6W 30 KT
12HR VT 22/1200Z 12.0N 33.9W 35 KT
24HR VT 23/0000Z 12.9N 36.0W 40 KT
36HR VT 23/1200Z 13.8N 38.4W 50 KT
48HR VT 24/0000Z 14.7N 41.3W 60 KT
72HR VT 25/0000Z 18.0N 47.0W 80 KT
96HR VT 26/0000Z 21.5N 51.5W 90 KT
120HR VT 27/0000Z 25.0N 55.0W 95 KT

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010
1100 PM AST SAT AUG 21 2010

CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE AND A 2202 UTC SSMIS MICROWAVE OVERPASS SHOW
IMPROVED CURVED BANDING...PARTICULARLY OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE CYCLONE. ALTHOUGH DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS A BIT LIMITED OVER
THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE...A 2300 UTC ASCAT PASS INDICATED A MORE
SYMMETRIC CIRCULATION THAN EARLIER NOTED...AND BELIEVABLE 25 KT
WINDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. OUTFLOW OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
AREA OF THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE IMPROVING AND HAS BECOME MORE
DIFFLUENT. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 2.0
AND 1.5 RESPECTIVELY. BASED ON THE PREMISE THAT THE WINDS ARE
PROBABLY A LITTLE STRONGER IN THE CONVECTIVE BANDING TO THE WEST
AND NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED UP
TO 30 KT.

THE CYCLONE SHOULD GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN AS IT REMAINS OVER WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND WITHIN A RELATIVELY LOW NORTHEASTERLY
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT DURING...AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS. THE SHIPS
AND THE GFDL CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BECOME A
HURRICANE WITHIN 3 DAYS...AND THIS IS ALSO INDICATED IN THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST. THROUGH THE REMAINING PERIOD...INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED OVER THE TRACK IN RESPONSE TO A MID
TO UPPER TROUGH MOVING OFF OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AROUND DAY 5.
SUBSEQUENTLY...THE INTENSITY FORECAST INDICATES ONLY MODEST
STRENGTHENING DURING THIS TIME-FRAME.

THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...OR...290/7. THE DEEP
TRADES ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE
DEPRESSION NOW APPEAR TO BE THE MORE DOMINANT STEERING
MECHANISM...WITH LESS OF AN INFLUENCE FROM THE SOUTHWESTERLY
MONSOONAL FLOW. DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
RIDGE STEERING THE CYCLONE IN A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH
DAY 3. AFTERWARD...A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS INDICATED IN THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST AS A DEEP-LAYER MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVES OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND BREAKS DOWN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...AND IS BASED ON THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 22/0300Z 11.3N 32.6W 30 KT
12HR VT 22/1200Z 12.0N 33.9W 35 KT
24HR VT 23/0000Z 12.9N 36.0W 40 KT
36HR VT 23/1200Z 13.8N 38.4W 50 KT
48HR VT 24/0000Z 14.7N 41.3W 60 KT
72HR VT 25/0000Z 18.0N 47.0W 80 KT
96HR VT 26/0000Z 21.5N 51.5W 90 KT
120HR VT 27/0000Z 25.0N 55.0W 95 KT

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN

[cycloneye]

For the record.

WTNT41 KNHC 220833
TCDAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010
500 AM AST SUN AUG 22 2010

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION IS GRADUALLY BECOMING
BETTER ORGANIZED...WITH THE DEVELOPMENT IN THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS
OF A DISTINCT CURVED BAND WRAPPING NEARLY HALFWAY AROUND THE WESTERN
SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. HOWEVER...THE CIRCULATION CENTER REMAINS
SEPARATED FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
ARE AT 2.0 AND 2.5 FROM SAB AND TAFB...RESPECTIVELY. WITH THE LACK
OF A CONSENSUS FROM BOTH SATELLITE AGENCIES AND LITTLE DEEP
CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER...THE INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT FOR
THIS ADVISORY.

RECENT CENTER FIXES ARE A BIT UNCERTAIN GIVEN A LACK OF MICROWAVE
DATA BUT YIELD AN INITIAL MOTION OF 295/08...A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT
AND FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ESTIMATE. A DEEP LAYER EAST-
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SHOULD STEER THE
CYCLONE ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD COURSE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS...WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR 27N41W THAT IS FORECAST BY
THE GLOBAL MODELS TO MOVE SOUTHWEST AND CAUSE A DEVELOPING WEAKNESS
IN THE RIDGE BETWEEN 45-50W IN ABOUT 72 HOURS. THE WEAKNESS IN THE
RIDGE BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED AS A LARGER MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO DIG OVER THE EAST CENTRAL ATLANTIC LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD. MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW A BIT MORE DIVERGENT BUT SHOWS THE
DEPRESSION MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD WITH A
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS IT MOVES INTO THE WEAKNESS. THE
OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST TRACK IS SLOWED AT LATER FORECAST TIMES AS A
RESULT OF A SLOWER TREND IN THE GUIDANCE AND INCREASING MODEL
SPREAD.

SHIPS MODEL OUTPUT AND UW-CIMSS SHEAR ANALYSES INDICATE MODERATE
EAST-NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE CYCLONE...SEEMINGLY
CONFIRMED BY THE EXPOSED NATURE OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER.
HOWEVER...THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE AS THE DEPRESSION MOVES
OUT OF THE LOW-LEVEL MONSOONAL FLOW OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL
ATLANTIC. THE LOWER SHEAR ENVIRONMENT ALONG WITH INCREASING SSTS
SHOULD FAVOR A GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION...AND THE DEPRESSION IS
FORECAST TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH WITHIN 3 DAYS. THEREAFTER...
AN INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH
THE DIGGING TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC COULD HAMPER FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION. THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS REDUCED ONLY
SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AND
IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE LGEM STATISTICAL INTENSITY GUIDANCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 22/0900Z 12.1N 33.4W 30 KT
12HR VT 22/1800Z 12.6N 34.6W 35 KT
24HR VT 23/0600Z 13.4N 36.6W 40 KT
36HR VT 23/1800Z 14.4N 39.2W 45 KT
48HR VT 24/0600Z 15.5N 42.0W 55 KT
72HR VT 25/0600Z 18.5N 47.5W 75 KT
96HR VT 26/0600Z 22.0N 52.0W 85 KT
120HR VT 27/0600Z 24.5N 55.0W 90 KT

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

[cycloneye]

WTNT21 KNHC 221448
TCMAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010
1500 UTC SUN AUG 22 2010

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 34.1W AT 22/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 34.1W AT 22/1500Z
AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 33.9W

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 13.0N 35.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 45SE 0SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 13.8N 38.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 45SE 30SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 14.7N 40.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 15SE 15SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 45SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 15.9N 43.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 30SE 15SW 45NW.
34 KT...105NE 75SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 19.0N 49.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 45SE 30SW 45NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 75SW 105NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 22.0N 53.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 24.5N 56.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.7N 34.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010
1100 AM AST SUN AUG 22 2010

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS NOT STRENGTHENED YET...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.7N 34.1W
ABOUT 665 MI...1075 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 34.1 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19
KM/HR...OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS BUT IS EXPECTED TO RESUME A MOTION
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED LATER
TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR
TONIGHT.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

221452
TCDAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010
1100 AM AST SUN AUG 22 2010

THE UPWARD TREND IN ORGANIZATION OF THE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO HAVE
STOPPED FOR THE TIME BEING. THE SYSTEM HAS A WELL-DEFINED
CENTER...BUT THE CIRCULATION IS A LITTLE STRETCHED FROM NORTHEAST
TO SOUTHWEST DUE TO ANOTHER DISTURBANCE LOCATED ABOUT 350 N MI TO
THE NORTHEAST. THIS HAS ALSO CAUSED THE CENTER TO MOVE ALMOST DUE
NORTH OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...PULLING IT FARTHER AWAY FROM THE
DEEP CONVECTION. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 30 KT AND 45 KT
FROM SAB AND TAFB...RESPECTIVELY...AND AN 1134 UTC ASCAT PASS
SHOWED A MAXIMUM OF 30 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE KEPT AT 30
KT SINCE THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN ORGANIZATION.

WITH THE RECENT NORTHWARD MOTION...THE SMOOTHED INITIAL MOTION IS
ROUGHLY 310/10. ONCE THE DEPRESSION ESCAPES THE INFLUENCE OF THE
DISTURBANCE TO ITS NORTHEAST...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED ALONG
26N SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH
INCREASING FORWARD SPEED THROUGH THE NEXT 72 HOURS. BY DAYS 4 AND
5 THERE IS GREATER UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK FORECAST DEPENDING ON
HOW THE MID-LATITUDE LONGWAVE PATTERN EVOLVES IN RELATION TO WHEN
THE DEPRESSION ACTUALLY BEGINS MOVING WESTWARD. THE GLOBAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH NEAR 45W
BY DAY 4...WHICH SHOULD BE TOO FAR EAST TO INDUCE SIGNIFICANT
RECURVATURE. THIS PATTERN...HOWEVER...SHOULD CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO
SLOW DOWN A LITTLE BY DAYS 4 AND 5 AS IT BECOMES TRAPPED TO THE
SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED
A LITTLE SOUTH AND WEST BY DAY 5...VERY CLOSE TO THE GFS...GFDL
...AND HWRF MODELS...AND LIES A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL
CONSENSUS TVCN.

THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MODERATE
EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...BUT
THEREAFTER THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT BECOMES MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
STRENGTHENING. HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM MAY STILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH
DRY AND RELATIVELY STABLE AIR TO ITS NORTH AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC...AND MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE NOW SHOWS A SLOWER
RATE OF INTENSIFICATION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED
DOWN A LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT IS STILL HIGHER THAN
EVERY INTENSITY MODEL AT DAY 5 EXCEPT FOR THE GFDL. BASED ON AN
EXPERIMENTAL INTENSITY PROBABILITY PRODUCT AT NHC...THE DEPRESSION
CURRENTLY HAS A 1 IN 5 CHANCE OF REACHING MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS AT
SOME POINT OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 22/1500Z 12.7N 34.1W 30 KT
12HR VT 23/0000Z 13.0N 35.6W 35 KT
24HR VT 23/1200Z 13.8N 38.1W 40 KT
36HR VT 24/0000Z 14.7N 40.8W 50 KT
48HR VT 24/1200Z 15.9N 43.7W 60 KT
72HR VT 25/1200Z 19.0N 49.0W 70 KT
96HR VT 26/1200Z 22.0N 53.0W 80 KT
120HR VT 27/1200Z 24.5N 56.0W 85 KT

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[cycloneye]

WTNT21 KNHC 222043
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010
2100 UTC SUN AUG 22 2010

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 35.1W AT 22/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 45SW 45NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 45SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 35.1W AT 22/2100Z
AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 34.6W

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 14.0N 36.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 45NE 30SE 0SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 14.9N 39.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 45SE 30SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 16.0N 42.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 15SE 15SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 45SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 17.3N 44.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 30SE 15SW 45NW.
34 KT...105NE 75SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 20.0N 50.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 45SE 30SW 45NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 75SW 105NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 23.0N 54.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 25.5N 57.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.4N 35.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[vacanechaser]

WTNT31 KNHC 222043
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010
500 PM AST SUN AUG 22 2010

...DEPRESSION BECOMES FOURTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.4N 35.1W
ABOUT 725 MI...1165 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
RECENT SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION OVER THE
EASTERN ATLANTIC HAS STRENGTHENED INTO TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE.

AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 35.1 WEST. DANIELLE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
LATER TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND DANIELLE COULD BE NEAR HURRICANE
INTENSITY BY LATE TUESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[vacanechaser]

discussion!!


WTNT41 KNHC 222044
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010
500 PM AST SUN AUG 22 2010

STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS TO NEAR
-85C...HAVE RECENTLY FORMED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE CYCLONE...AND
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS NOW EMBEDDED BENEATH THE CONVECTIVE CANOPY.
DVORAK FINAL T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE NOW BOTH 2.5...35
KT...AND THE MOST RECENT 3-HOUR AVERAGE ADT FROM UW-CIMSS IS 2.7.
THE DEPRESSION IS THEREFORE UPGRADED TO A 35-KT TROPICAL STORM.

GIVEN THE NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE CENTER OF DANIELLE THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY...THE ESTIMATED INITIAL MOTION IS 310/10. HOWEVER...
RECENT SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER IS TURNING BACK
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM IS STEERED BY THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO ITS NORTH. A BREAK IN THE RIDGE BY DAY 3 COULD ALLOW THE
CYCLONE TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...BUT DANIELLE IS EXPECTED TO
SLOW DOWN AS IT APPROACHES A NEW RIDGE TO ITS NORTH ON DAY 5. THE
NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
DURING THE FIRST 72 HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INITIAL POSITION...BUT
IT CONVERGES BACK WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST ON DAYS 4 AND 5. THERE
HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT SHIFT IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE SINCE THE LAST
ADVISORY...AND THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCN IS EXTREMELY CLOSE TO
OFCI.

WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFDL...THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE HAS
CONTINUED TO SCALE BACK ON THE INTENSIFICATION OF THE CYCLONE.
SLOW STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
SINCE VERTICAL SHEAR IS CURRENTLY NOT IDEAL...AND SOME DRY AIR
APPEARS TO SURROUND THE SYSTEM. THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE SEEMS TO
SUGGEST THAT THE VERTICAL SHEAR COULD INCREASE AGAIN AFTER DAY
3...AND THE LGEM DOES NOT EVEN STRENGTHEN THE CYCLONE TO A HURRICANE
DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. FOR NOW...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS LEFT UNCHANGED OUT OF RESPECT FOR CONTINUITY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 22/2100Z 13.4N 35.1W 35 KT
12HR VT 23/0600Z 14.0N 36.6W 35 KT
24HR VT 23/1800Z 14.9N 39.2W 40 KT
36HR VT 24/0600Z 16.0N 42.0W 50 KT
48HR VT 24/1800Z 17.3N 44.9W 60 KT
72HR VT 25/1800Z 20.0N 50.0W 70 KT
96HR VT 26/1800Z 23.0N 54.0W 75 KT
120HR VT 27/1800Z 25.5N 57.0W 85 KT

$$
FORECASTER BERG

WWWW

[cycloneye]

000
WTNT21 KNHC 230236
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010
0300 UTC MON AUG 23 2010

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 35.9W AT 23/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 60SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 30SE 30SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 35.9W AT 23/0300Z
AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 35.3W

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 14.9N 37.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
34 KT... 45NE 30SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 15.9N 40.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 17.1N 43.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 15SW 40NW.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 18.5N 46.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...105NE 75SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 21.7N 50.8W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 75SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 24.5N 54.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 27.0N 57.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.2N 35.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/HOGSETT

[supercane]

000
WTNT31 KNHC 230240
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010
1100 PM AST SUN AUG 22 2010

...DANIELLE STRENGTHENS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.2N 35.9W
ABOUT 770 MI...1240 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 35.9 WEST. DANIELLE
IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR. A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS...AND DANIELLE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY LATE TUESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/HOGSETT

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010
1100 PM AST SUN AUG 22 2010

DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OF DANIELLE...WHICH DEVELOPED AROUND
1900 UTC...HAS PERSISTED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS WITH CLOUD TOPS
AS COLD AS -90 C. AN SSMI/S MICROWAVE PASS AT 2151 UTC SUGGESTS
THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF DANIELLE REMAINS NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE
OF THE DEEP CONVECTIVE MASS...INDICATIVE OF PERSISTENT EASTERLY
SHEAR. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB ARE
3.0...AND SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 45 KT. A
RECENTLY ARRIVING ASCAT PASS SHOWED 35 TO 40 KT WINDS OVER THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION...WHICH ALSO SUPPORTS RAISING
THE INITIAL INTENSITY.

DANIELLE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD WITH AN INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE OF 315/11. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN DANIELLE TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS...WITH AN INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED. THEREAFTER...A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST
AS A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE DEVELOPS. THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST IS NUDGED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

EASTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR
SO. OTHER ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS ALSO SUPPORT ADDITIONAL
INTENSIFICATION AND THE NHC OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS STEADY
STRENGTHENING. THIS IS IN LINE WITH MUCH OF THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE...WHICH BRINGS DANIELLE TO HURRICANE STATUS WITHIN THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 23/0300Z 14.2N 35.9W 45 KT
12HR VT 23/1200Z 14.9N 37.6W 50 KT
24HR VT 24/0000Z 15.9N 40.3W 55 KT
36HR VT 24/1200Z 17.1N 43.3W 60 KT
48HR VT 25/0000Z 18.5N 46.2W 70 KT
72HR VT 26/0000Z 21.7N 50.8W 75 KT
96HR VT 27/0000Z 24.5N 54.5W 80 KT
120HR VT 28/0000Z 27.0N 57.0W 85 KT

$$
FORECASTER HOGSETT/CANGIALOSI

NNNN

[WeatherGuesser]

000
WTNT31 KNHC 230832
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010
500 AM AST MON AUG 23 2010

...DANIELLE STRENGTHENS SOME MORE...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.8N 37.1W
ABOUT 850 MI...1365 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 37.1 WEST. DANIELLE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND DANIELLE IS
LIKELY TO BECOME A HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

[cycloneye]

000
WTNT41 KNHC 231438
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010
1100 AM AST MON AUG 23 2010

AT 1028 UTC...AN SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS INDICATED THAT DANIELLE WAS
STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR WITH THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER LOCATED ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION. HOWEVER...THE SHEAR APPEARS TO BE SLOWLY DECREASING...
AND CURVED BANDING HAS BECOME MORE PROMINENT OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 55 KT BASED ON DVORAK
FINAL T-NUMBERS OF 3.5 FROM TAFB AND SAB.

A FEW RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS
A LITTLE SOUTH OF PREVIOUS ESTIMATES...THE THE INITIAL MOTION IS
NOW 290/14. THE LONGWAVE PATTERN OVER THE ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO
CHANGE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND A BREAK IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NEAR 45W SHOULD ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST WITHIN THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS. ONCE THIS HAPPENS...THE
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO BLOCK THE WESTWARD
MOVEMENT OF DANIELLE AND FORCE IT TO TURN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD BY
DAY 5. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH DAY 5...AND
LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS NEEDED. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT THE TIGHT CLUSTERING OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT
CONFIDENCE IN THIS TRACK FORECAST IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL.

THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW STEADY STRENGTHENING
OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS WITH THE HELP OF LOW VERTICAL SHEAR AND
WARM OCEAN WATERS. AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...HOWEVER...THE SHIPS
AND LGEM STATISTICAL MODELS NOW SHOW MORE INTENSIFICATION THAN THE
GFDL AND HWRF DYNAMICAL MODELS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO
THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS FOR THE FIRST 72 HOURS BUT THEN VERY
CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS AND PREVIOUS FORECAST THEREAFTER. THE RAPID
INTENSIFICATION INDEX IS CURRENTLY NEAR 40 PERCENT...SO THERE IS
SOME CHANCE THAT DANIELLE COULD STRENGTHEN A LITTLE FASTER DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS THAN INDICATED IN THE FORECAST. BY DAYS 3
THROUGH 5...VERTICAL SHEAR COULD INCREASE AS DANIELLE APPROACHES A
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC... SO FOR NOW THE
INTENSITY IS HELD NEAR THE LOWER END OF CATEGORY 2 STRENGTH. THERE
IS NOW A 1 IN 4 CHANCE...HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY...THAT DANIELLE
COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS BASED ON
HISTORICAL NHC INTENSITY ERRORS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 23/1500Z 15.1N 39.4W 55 KT
12HR VT 24/0000Z 16.0N 41.5W 65 KT
24HR VT 24/1200Z 17.3N 44.5W 75 KT
36HR VT 25/0000Z 18.9N 47.2W 80 KT
48HR VT 25/1200Z 20.8N 49.5W 85 KT
72HR VT 26/1200Z 24.5N 53.5W 90 KT
96HR VT 27/1200Z 27.0N 55.5W 90 KT
120HR VT 28/1200Z 29.5N 57.0W 90 KT

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[cycloneye]

2033
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DANIELLE ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010
500 PM AST MON AUG 23 2010

...DANIELLE BECOMES A HURRICANE...THE SECOND OF THE ATLANTIC
SEASON...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.4N 41.5W
ABOUT 1320 MI...2120 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DANIELLE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 41.5 WEST. DANIELLE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR...AND IS
EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST BY TUESDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DANIELLE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND DANIELLE IS FORECAST TO
BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY WEDNESDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 10 MILES...20 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70
MILES...110 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

000
WTNT41 KNHC 232033
TCDAT1
HURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010
500 PM AST MON AUG 23 2010

THE CONVECTIVE CANOPY OF DANIELLE HAS BECOME MORE AXISYMMETRIC OVER
THE PAST FEW HOURS...INDICATING THAT VERTICAL SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM
IS NOW RELAXING. A 1620 UTC AMSR-E MICROWAVE PASS SHOWED A DISTINCT
LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF CIRCULATION THAT IS DISPLACED A LITTLE TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE MID-LEVEL CENTER OF ROTATION. DESPITE THAT
STRUCTURE...DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE RISEN TO T4.0 FROM TAFB AND
SAB...AND DANIELLE IS UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE ON THAT BASIS. THE
CYCLONE APPEARS TO BE GOING THROUGH A PERIOD OF RAPID
INTENSIFICATION...AND THE SHIPS RI GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT IT COULD
CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER 12 TO 24 HOURS. THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST INDICATES A 25-KT INCREASE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS BUT THEN
LEVELS OFF THE INTENSITY TO THE THRESHOLD OF MAJOR HURRICANE BY 48
HOURS. THIS FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE SHIPS...LGEM...AND FSU
SUPERENSEMBLE AND SHOWS FASTER STRENGTHENING THAN THE GFDL AND
HWRF.

DANIELLE CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE AND NOW HAS AN INITIAL MOTION OF
290/15. A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS LOCATED NORTH OF THE
HURRICANE...AND THIS FEATURE WILL ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS
TIGHTLY-CLUSTERED...AND AGAIN...LITTLE CHANGE WAS REQUIRED FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL
CONSENSUS TVCN AND CURRENTLY LIES A LITTLE TO THE WEST OF THE
GFDL...HWRF...AND ECMWF AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 23/2100Z 15.4N 41.5W 65 KT
12HR VT 24/0600Z 16.3N 43.6W 80 KT
24HR VT 24/1800Z 17.8N 46.2W 90 KT
36HR VT 25/0600Z 19.6N 48.8W 95 KT
48HR VT 25/1800Z 21.6N 51.3W 100 KT
72HR VT 26/1800Z 25.0N 55.0W 100 KT
96HR VT 27/1800Z 27.5N 57.0W 95 KT
120HR VT 28/1800Z 30.5N 58.5W 95 KT

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[cycloneye]

KNHC 240235
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DANIELLE ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010
1100 PM AST MON AUG 23 2010

...DANIELLE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.6N 43.2W
ABOUT 1205 MI...1940 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...32 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DANIELLE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 43.2 WEST. DANIELLE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED BY LATE TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. DANIELLE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AND
DANIELLE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY LATE TUESDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85
MILES...140 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB...29.00 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010
1100 PM AST MON AUG 23 2010

DANIELLE HAS STRENGTHENED SOME MORE THIS EVENING. A 2148 UTC SSMIS
OVERPASS SHOWED THE PRESENCE OF AN EYE WITH LITTLE OR NO VERTICAL
TILT...BUT THIS FEATURE HAS NOT YET BECOME APPARENT ON
GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGES. THE CLOUD PATTERN IS MORE
SYMMETRIC THAN IT WAS EARLIER AND CONSISTS OF A CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST AND SPIRAL BANDS WITH CLOUD TOPS AS COLD AS -80 C. DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 4.5/77 KT AND 4.0/65
KT...RESPECTIVELY AND OBJECTIVE SATELLITE ESTIMATES FROM CIMSS AT
THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN ARE NEAR 4.5/77 KT. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY FOLLOWS THE HIGHER ESTIMATES AND IS SET AT 75 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY.

THE HURRICANE IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING. THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS THE SHEAR REMAINING LESS THAN
10 KT FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS...COMBINED WITH A WARM OCEAN
ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK SHOULD SUPPORT STEADY...OR EVEN
RAPID...INTENSIFICATION. SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS
ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE IN ABOUT 36 HOURS AND THAT WILL
LIKELY INHIBIT ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING DURING THAT TIME PERIOD.

DANIELLE CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...AND THE INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE IS 285/17. THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY IS UNCHANGED FROM
EARLIER. A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AS A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
AMPLIFIES NEAR THE AZORES. THIS PATTERN SHOULD CAUSE DANIELLE TO
MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THE BREAK IN THE RIDGE THEN BECOMES REINFORCED BY ANOTHER TROUGH
THAT MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IN 4 TO 5 DAYS. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND
LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 24/0300Z 15.6N 43.2W 75 KT
12HR VT 24/1200Z 16.7N 45.0W 90 KT
24HR VT 25/0000Z 18.3N 47.5W 100 KT
36HR VT 25/1200Z 20.1N 49.9W 100 KT
48HR VT 26/0000Z 22.2N 52.0W 100 KT
72HR VT 27/0000Z 25.5N 55.5W 95 KT
96HR VT 28/0000Z 28.0N 57.5W 95 KT
120HR VT 29/0000Z 31.0N 59.0W 95 KT

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

[WeatherGuesser]

000
WTNT31 KNHC 240832
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DANIELLE ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010
500 AM AST TUE AUG 24 2010

...DANIELLE REACHES CATEGORY TWO STATUS...FAR OUT AT SEA...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.9N 44.6W
ABOUT 1110 MI...1790 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...32 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.73 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DANIELLE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 44.6 WEST. DANIELLE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED BY EARLY WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH...160
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DANIELLE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...
AND DANIELLE COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY EARLY WEDNESDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 973 MB...28.73 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

[cycloneye]

WTNT41 KNHC 241442
TCDAT1
HURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010
1100 AM AST TUE AUG 24 2010

THE PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION HAS ENDED WITH A THUD. THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF DANIELLE HAS BECOME EXPOSED BETWEEN A RAGGED
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST TO ITS EAST...AND A BROKEN CONVECTIVE BAND
TO ITS WEST. ALL ALONG...MICROWAVE IMAGERY SINCE ABOUT 0300 UTC
SHOWED A DRY SLOT WRAPPING AROUND THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SIDE OF
THE CIRCULATION...AND AS A RESULT THE EYEWALL BECAME ERODED. DATA
T-NUMBERS HAVE FALLEN QUICKLY AND ARE NOW AS LOW AS T3.9 FROM THE
HURRICANE INTENSITY ESTIMATE...AN EXPERIMENTAL FORM OF THE UW-CIMSS
ADT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 70 KT AT THIS TIME...
WHICH COULD STILL BE GENEROUS. SHIPS GUIDANCE SHOWS WESTERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR INCREASING TO BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KT OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...AND IT IS UNCLEAR HOW WELL DANIELLE WILL BE
ABLE TO MIX OUT THE DRY AIR. ONLY SLOW STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED
IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...AND THE INTENSITY AT DAYS 4 AND 5 IS
HELD JUST BELOW MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH TO MAINTAIN SOME SORT OF
CONTINUITY...BUT THIS IS NOW ABOVE MANY OF THE INTENSITY MODELS.

MICROWAVE FIXES INDICATE THAT DANIELLE HAS BEEN MOVING QUICKLY WITH
AND A AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 290/17. THIS MOTION IS A
LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE FORECAST TRACK. LITTLE CHANGE IS
REQUIRED IN THE FORECAST...AND DANIELLE IS STILL EXPECTED TO TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST THROUGH A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
THE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK LIES A LITTLE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INITIAL MOTION
BUT THEN REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE EARLIER FORECASTS FOR DAYS 3
THROUGH 5. THIS SOLUTION IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS TVCN AND STILL A LITTLE LEFT OF THE GFS...GFDL...AND
HWRF...WHICH SEAMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE CONTINUED LEFT-OF-TRACK
MOTION.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 24/1500Z 16.6N 46.5W 70 KT
12HR VT 25/0000Z 17.5N 48.3W 75 KT
24HR VT 25/1200Z 19.1N 50.4W 80 KT
36HR VT 26/0000Z 21.0N 52.3W 85 KT
48HR VT 26/1200Z 22.8N 53.8W 90 KT
72HR VT 27/1200Z 26.0N 56.5W 90 KT
96HR VT 28/1200Z 28.5N 58.5W 95 KT
120HR VT 29/1200Z 32.0N 59.5W 95 KT

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[cycloneye]

TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010
500 PM AST TUE AUG 24 2010

WITH JUST A LITTLE BIT OF UNEXPECTED WESTERLY SHEAR...DANIELLE HAS
UNRAVELED DURING THE DAY. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS OCCASIONALLY
BEEN EXPOSED TO THE WEST OF A DISORGANIZED CLUSTER OF DEEP
CONVECTION...AND THE DVORAK ESTIMATES HAVE DECREASED ACCORDINGLY.
FINAL-T AND CI ESTIMATES FROM THE UW-CIMSS ADT ARE NOW NEAR
T3.5/4.5 AND SUPPORT DOWNGRADING DANIELLE TO A 60-KT TROPICAL
STORM. WITHOUT SUFFICIENT OBSERVATIONAL DATA IN THE CYCLONE
ENVIRONMENT...OPERATIONALLY WE CAN NOT SPECULATE WITH CERTAINTY WHY
DANIELLE WEAKENED TODAY.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SUPPORT DANIELLE RE-INTENSIFYING INTO A
HURRICANE SOON...AND THAT IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE...EXCEPT FOR THE GFDL WHICH SHOWS DANIELLE
BECOMING AN INTENSE HURRICANE IN ABOUT 4 DAYS...INDICATES GRADUAL
STRENGTHENING DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE NEW OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS HIGHER THAN THE STATISTICAL MODELS...WHICH ARE STRONGLY
AFFECTED BY PERSISTENCE...BUT IT REMAINS MUCH LOWER THAN THE GFDL
AT THIS TIME.

DANIELLE IS STILL MOVING QUICKLY WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 295/16.
THE TRACK GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE CYCLONE SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOW
DOWN SOON AND TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS
IT MOVES INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE MODELS HAVE
SHIFTED SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE WEST...HOWEVER...AND THE DAY 5
OFFICIAL FORECAST POSITION ENDS UP BEING 2 DEGREES FARTHER WEST
THAN IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THIS NEW FORECAST IS STILL TO THE
RIGHT OF THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS...AND IT LIES CLOSE TO THE MODEL
CONSENSUS OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE SHARPER-TURNING ECMWF.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 24/2100Z 17.5N 48.2W 60 KT
12HR VT 25/0600Z 18.5N 49.9W 70 KT
24HR VT 25/1800Z 20.2N 51.9W 75 KT
36HR VT 26/0600Z 22.0N 53.8W 80 KT
48HR VT 26/1800Z 23.7N 55.3W 85 KT
72HR VT 27/1800Z 26.5N 58.5W 90 KT
96HR VT 28/1800Z 29.5N 61.0W 95 KT
120HR VT 29/1800Z 33.0N 61.5W 95 KT

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[cycloneye]

AT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DANIELLE ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010
1100 PM AST TUE AUG 24 2010

...DANIELLE A HURRICANE AGAIN...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.2N 49.8W
ABOUT 795 MI...1275 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DANIELLE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.8 WEST. DANIELLE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR...BUT IS
EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DANIELLE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH
IS EXPECTED TOMORROW...WITH SOME STRENGTHENING POSSIBLE BY
THURSDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

NNNN