ATL: Ex-DANIELLE - Advisories

[cycloneye]

ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010
1100 PM AST TUE AUG 24 2010

A SERIES OF MICROWAVE PASSES DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS SHOW THAT
DANIELLE IS BECOMING BETTER-ORGANIZED...WITH HINTS OF AN EYE
FEATURE ON THE 37-GHZ CHANNELS. THIS IS ALSO SUGGESTED BY AN
INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER...ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM
APPEARS TO STILL BE EXPERIENCING NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR. SATELLITE
CLASSIFICATIONS ARE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN SIX HOURS AGO...AND THE
INITIAL WIND SPEED IS RAISED TO 65 KT.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A CHALLENGING ONE THIS EVENING. FOR THE
NEXT DAY OR SO...THE HURRICANE WILL BE INTERACTING WITH THE
MID-OCEANIC TROUGH TO ITS NORTHWEST AND EXPERIENCING MODERATE
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. DESPITE WARM SSTS...THESE UPPER-LEVEL
CONDITIONS USUALLY DO NOT FAVOR MUCH INTENSIFICATION.
HOWEVER...MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS FRACTURE THE TROUGH IN 36-48
HR...WHICH CAUSES A DECREASE IN SHEAR AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
CLOSER TO DANIELLE AND AN OPPORTUNITY FOR A MORE SIGNIFICANT
RESTRENGTHENING. THIS IS THE SCENARIO FOLLOWED IN THE NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST...AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A BLEND OF THE
GFDL/LGEM/SHIPS MODELS.

THE INITIAL MOTION OF THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT
ABOUT 16 KT. A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC SHOULD PROVIDE THE
STEERING FLOW FOR DANIELLE DURING MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS
THE RIDGE WEAKENS...A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED
TOMORROW...WITH THAT GENERAL MOTION AT A SLOWER SPEED CONTINUING
FOR A FEW DAYS AFTERWARD. THE BIGGEST QUESTION IN THE LONG-TERM IS
HOW MUCH A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFFSHORE OF
THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL AFFECT DANIELLE.
THE OVERALL TREND IN THE MODELS IS FOR A WEAKER TROUGH...WHICH
CAUSES A DELAYED NORTHWARD TURN OF THE CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS WEST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE INITIALLY...BUT ENDS UP SLOWER
THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AT 120 HOURS. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE
THAT THE MODEL SPREAD IS INCREASING AT THE LONG-RANGE...SO THE
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AT THAT TIME IS LOWER THAN AVERAGE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 25/0300Z 18.2N 49.8W 65 KT
12HR VT 25/1200Z 19.4N 51.5W 70 KT
24HR VT 26/0000Z 21.3N 53.5W 70 KT
36HR VT 26/1200Z 23.0N 55.3W 75 KT
48HR VT 27/0000Z 24.4N 57.0W 80 KT
72HR VT 28/0000Z 27.0N 60.0W 90 KT
96HR VT 29/0000Z 30.0N 61.5W 90 KT
120HR VT 30/0000Z 33.0N 61.5W 85 KT

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[cycloneye]

000
WTNT41 KNHC 250930
TCDAT1
HURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 15...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010
500 AM AST WED AUG 25 2010

CORRECTED 70 KT TO 75 KT IN FIRST PARAGRAPH

ALTHOUGH THE CLOUD PATTERN OF THE HURRICANE HAS NOT BECOME MUCH
BETTER ORGANIZED ON GEOSTATIONARY IMAGERY...AN AMSR-E PASS FROM
0516 UTC SUGGESTS AN EYE WITH FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED INNER CORE
CONVECTIVE BANDING ON THE 37-GHZ CHANNEL. CIRRUS-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS
BECOMING A LITTLE BETTER DEFINED TO THE NORTHWEST. USING A BLEND
OF DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB...THE
ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET TO 75 KT. AN UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE TO THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE HURRICANE HAS BEEN IMPARTING MODERATE
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ON DANIELLE. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT THIS UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE SOUTHWEST OVER
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. THIS EVOLUTION WOULD CAUSE THE SHEAR TO
WEAKEN AND BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY OR EVEN SOUTHEASTERLY. BOTH OF
THESE ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS SHOULD BE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
STRENGTHENING. NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...DYNAMICAL
GUIDANCE SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN SHEAR SO THE HURRICANE
WILL PROBABLY BE ON A WEAKENING TREND BY DAY 5. THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE NUMERICAL INTENSITY CONSENSUS.

THERE HAS BEEN A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND THE INITIAL
MOTION IS NOW ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT 300/15. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST IS LIKELY TO OCCUR VERY SOON IN RESPONSE TO A WEAKNESS IN
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF DANIEL. A SHORT WAVE
MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE WILL BE PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE
HURRICANE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WOULD TEMPORARILY HALT A
FURTHER TURN TO THE RIGHT...UNTIL THE RIDGE MOVES FARTHER EAST.
LATER ON...A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION IS LIKELY AS DANIELLE MOVES
AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND IS INFLUENCED BY A
TROUGH MOVING OFF THE NORTHEAST U.S. COAST. THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST IS QUITE CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE LATEST ECMWF FORECAST IS AN OUTLIER...
SHOWING A SHARPER TURN TO THE RIGHT THAN MOST OF THE MODELS...AND
IS SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER THAN THE OTHER TRACK GUIDANCE. IT WILL BE
INTERESTING TO SEE IF THAT MODEL TURNS OUT TO BE CORRECT.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 25/0900Z 18.8N 51.0W 75 KT
12HR VT 25/1800Z 20.1N 52.7W 70 KT
24HR VT 26/0600Z 21.8N 54.5W 70 KT
36HR VT 26/1800Z 23.3N 56.3W 75 KT
48HR VT 27/0600Z 24.5N 58.0W 80 KT
72HR VT 28/0600Z 27.0N 61.0W 90 KT
96HR VT 29/0600Z 30.0N 62.0W 95 KT
120HR VT 30/0600Z 33.0N 62.0W 85 KT

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[HURAKAN]

812
WTNT41 KNHC 251441
TCDAT1
HURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010
1100 AM AST WED AUG 25 2010

DANIELLE HAS A LARGE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST THIS MORNING WITH
CLOUD TOPS TO -80C. HOWEVER...RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT
THE CONVECTION IS ORGANIZED IN BANDS EAST OF THE CENTER WITH NO
EVIDENCE OF AN EYEWALL. UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH
A TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE HURRICANE ARE CAUSING 15-20 KT OF
WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR...AND THIS HAS LIKELY AFFECTED THE
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN 90 KT
FROM TAFB AND 65 KT FROM SAB. BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS 75 KT...AND THIS MIGHT BE A LITTLE GENEROUS. THE
CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS FAIR IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND RESTRICTED
ELSEWHERE.

THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 300/15. DANIELLE IS ON THE SOUTHWEST
SIDE OF A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...WHICH
SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE IN A GENERAL NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION WITH
SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 72 HR. AFTER
THAT...DANIELLE IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD INTO A WEAKNESS
BETWEEN THE ATLANTIC RIDGE AND A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE TRACK GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME SPREAD DURING
THIS TIME DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN HOW DANIELLE MAY INTERACT WITH A
WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST AND HOW MUCH MID-LEVEL RIDGING
MAY DEVELOP NORTH OF THE HURRICANE. THE NOGAPS SHOWS THE MOST
RIDGING...AND IN RESPONSE TURNS DANIELLE NORTHWESTWARD. THE
ECWMF SHOWS A STRONGER TROUGH AND LESS RIDGING...AND IN CONSEQUENCE
TURNS THE HURRICANE NORTHEASTWARD BY 120 HR. THE OTHER MODELS ARE
IN BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES...WITH THE VARIOUS CONSENSUS MODELS
FORECASTING A NORTHWARD MOTION. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS DOWN THE
MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOP AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

DANIELLE SHOULD PASS TO THE EAST AND NORTH OF THE NEARBY UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH IN ABOUT 24 HR...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A DECREASE IN
THE SHEAR. ALL GUIDANCE AGREES ON INTENSIFICATION DURING THE 24-72
HR PERIOD...WITH THE GFDL AND GFDN FORECASTING DANIELLE TO BECOME A
MAJOR HURRICANE. THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS ARE LESS AGGRESSIVE...
AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALL FOR A 95 KT PEAK INTENSITY THAT IS
CLOSE TO THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS. AFTER 72 HR...THE DYNAMICAL
MODELS AGREE THAT AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING WEST OF DANIELLE
SHOULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...AND THE INTENSITY
FORECAST FOR THIS TIME THUS CALLS FOR ARRESTED DEVELOPMENT FOLLOWED
BY WEAKENING.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 25/1500Z 19.6N 52.3W 75 KT
12HR VT 26/0000Z 20.8N 53.9W 75 KT
24HR VT 26/1200Z 22.3N 55.7W 80 KT
36HR VT 27/0000Z 23.7N 57.4W 80 KT
48HR VT 27/1200Z 24.9N 59.0W 85 KT
72HR VT 28/1200Z 27.5N 61.5W 95 KT
96HR VT 29/1200Z 30.5N 62.0W 95 KT
120HR VT 30/1200Z 34.0N 62.0W 85 KT

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[cycloneye]

000
WTNT41 KNHC 252030
TCDAT1
HURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010
500 PM AST WED AUG 25 2010

DANIELLE HAS DEVELOPED A CURVED BAND OF CONVECTION AROUND THE CENTER
WITH CLOUD TOPS TO -80C...AND A FAINT EYE-LIKE FEATURE HAS BEEN SEEN
IN VISIBLE IMAGERY. HOWEVER...A RECENT AMSU OVERPASS SUGGESTS THIS
IS DISPLACED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. ANALYSES
FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN SHOW THAT DANIELLE IS
STILL AFFECTED BY 10-15 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR...AND SEVERAL ARC CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SEEN JUST OUTSIDE THE
CENTRAL CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT.

THE HURRICANE HAS TURNED TO THE RIGHT DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS...LIKELY DUE TO INTERACTION WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW/TROUGH TO
ITS NORTHWEST. THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 315/15. FOR THE NEXT
48-72 HR...DANIELLE SHOULD BE STEERED BY THE FLOW BETWEEN THIS LOW
AND A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST...WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW A CONTINUED NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH SOME DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED. AFTER 72 HR...DANIELLE SHOULD TURN NORTHWARD INTO A
WEAKNESS BETWEEN THE ATLANTIC RIDGE AND A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE SPREAD OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE DURING
THIS TIME HAS INCREASED SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY...AND THE
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK HAS CORRESPONDINGLY DECREASED.
THE NOGAPS... HWRF...GFDN...AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS FORECAST A
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION BY 120 HR AND ARE ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THE ECMWF AND THE LBAR SHOW A QUICK RECURAVTURE
TO THE NORTHEAST AND ARE ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE. THE
OTHER DYNAMICAL AND CONSENSUS MODELS FORECAST A MEANDERING
NORTHWARD MOTION...AND THE 72-120 HR FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THIS
SCENARIO. OVERALL...THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE
RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH 48-72 HR AND A LITTLE TO THE
LEFT OF IT THEREAFTER.

DANIELLE SHOULD PASS TO THE EAST AND NORTH OF THE NEARBY UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH IN 12-18 HR...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A DECREASE IN
THE SHEAR. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
STRENGTH OF THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS NEAR DANIELLE DURING THE 24-72 HR
TIME FRAME...WITH THE UKMET SHOWING CONSISTENTLY STRONGER SHEAR
THAN THE OTHER GUIDANCE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL LEAN TOWARDS
THE LIGHTER-SHEAR SCENARIO AND CALL FOR A PEAK INTENSITY OF 95 KT
IN 72 HR. THIS IS AGAIN BETWEEN THE MORE AGGRESSIVE GFDL/GFDN AND
THE LESS AGGRESSIVE SHIPS/LGEM. AFTER 72 HR...THE DYNAMICAL
MODELS AGREE THAT AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING WEST OF DANIELLE
SHOULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...AND THE INTENSITY
FORECAST FOR THIS TIME THUS CALLS FOR ARRESTED DEVELOPMENT FOLLOWED
BY WEAKENING.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 25/2100Z 21.2N 53.1W 75 KT
12HR VT 26/0600Z 22.3N 54.5W 75 KT
24HR VT 26/1800Z 23.5N 56.4W 80 KT
36HR VT 27/0600Z 24.8N 58.3W 85 KT
48HR VT 27/1800Z 26.1N 60.2W 90 KT
72HR VT 28/1800Z 29.0N 62.5W 95 KT
96HR VT 29/1800Z 32.0N 62.5W 95 KT
120HR VT 30/1800Z 35.0N 62.5W 85 KT

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[cycloneye]

AT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010
1100 PM AST WED AUG 25 2010

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT DANIELLE HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. A LARGE CURVED BAND FEATURE EXTENDS
AROUND THE HURRICANE...AND THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST HAS BECOME
MORE CIRCULAR WITH SIGNS OF A RAGGED EYE. MICROWAVE PASSES FROM
2000-2200 UTC CONFIRM THIS TREND AND SHOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN
EYEWALL THAT IS MOSTLY CLOSED. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS RAISED TO
85 KT...AND IS A BLEND OF THE CI NUMBERS FROM TAFB/SAB. THE SIZE OF
THE HURRICANE APPEARS TO BE EXPANDING ON SATELLITE...AND WIND
ANALYSES FROM CSU/CIRA ALSO SHOW THIS GROWTH. BASED ON THE ABOVE
DATA...THE INITIAL AND FORECAST WIND RADII HAVE BEEN INCREASED.

IT IS A LITTLE SURPRISING THAT THE HURRICANE HAS BEEN INTENSIFYING
AS WIND SHEAR ANALYSES FROM UW-CIMSS SHOW ABOUT 15 KT OF
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. THIS SHEAR IS FORECAST TO ABATE BY LATE
TOMORROW AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW DROPS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF DANIELLE.
THIS IS A COMMON SYNOPTIC SITUATION THAT SUPPORTS INTENSIFICATION
AND NOW MOST OF THE GUIDANCE HAVE DANIELLE NEAR MAJOR HURRICANE
STRENGTH ON FRIDAY. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE HURRICANE
SHOULD BE WEAKENING AS IT ENCOUNTERS COOLER WATER AND AN INCREASE
IN SHEAR. THIS SCENARIO IS FOLLOWED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...AND
THE FORECAST INTENSITY IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT 320/15 DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS...AND
EVEN A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THAT RECENTLY. A LARGE TROUGH TO THE
NORTH OF THE HURRICANE HAS APPARENTLY BEEN CAUSING IT TO MOVE A
LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST PATH...BUT THE TROUGH IS
RAPIDLY MOVING AWAY FROM DANIELLE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW A RIDGE TO
REBUILD TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE AND A LEFTWARD BEND OF THE
TRACK BY TOMORROW NIGHT. IN A FEW DAYS...A TURN TO THE NORTH IS
ANTICIPATED AS THE CYCLONE MOVES BETWEEN A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC AND AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. GUIDANCE
REMAINS DIVERGENT ON WHETHER THE HURRICANE WILL SIMPLY RECURVE OUT
TO SEA WITH THAT TROUGH...OR WHETHER IT WILL BE LEFT BEHIND AND
RESUME A SLOWER MOTION TO THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH. THE MOST RELIABLE
MODELS ARE GENERALLY NEAR OR EAST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS...AND THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST WILL LEAN ON THAT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE...SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 26/0300Z 22.4N 54.1W 85 KT
12HR VT 26/1200Z 23.7N 55.6W 90 KT
24HR VT 27/0000Z 25.0N 57.4W 95 KT
36HR VT 27/1200Z 26.1N 59.3W 100 KT
48HR VT 28/0000Z 27.5N 60.8W 100 KT
72HR VT 29/0000Z 30.3N 62.3W 100 KT
96HR VT 30/0000Z 33.5N 62.0W 90 KT
120HR VT 31/0000Z 37.0N 61.5W 80 KT

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[HURAKAN]

490
WTNT41 KNHC 261440
TCDAT1
HURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010
1100 AM AST THU AUG 26 2010

DANIELLE HAS GONE THROUGH ANOTHER ROUND OF CHANGES IN ITS CONVECTIVE
STRUCTURE. THE EYE THAT WAS APPARENT FROM 05-07Z DISAPPEARED AT
ABOUT 10Z...ACCOMPANIED BY AN OVERALL DECREASE IN ORGANIZATION.
SINCE THEN...THE EYE HAS RE-APPEARED...EMBEDDED IN A RAGGED CENTRAL
DENSE OVERCAST. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 90 KT FROM TAFB
AND SAB...SO THAT REMAINS THE INITIAL INTENSITY. HOWEVER...THIS MAY
BE SMOOTHING THROUGH SOME SHORT-TERM FLUCTUATIONS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 320/13. IN THE FIRST 48 HR OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...DANIELLE SHOULD BE STEERED GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD BY A
LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE PASSING TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE
HURRICANE. AFTER THAT TIME...A LARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE DANIELLE TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND THE
NORTHEAST. THE GUIDANCE HAS MADE A MAJOR EASTWARD SHIFT SINCE THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND IT IS NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON RECURVATURE
INTO THE WESTERLIES WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AFTER 72 HR.
THE NEW FORECAST TRACK WILL ALSO BE SHIFTED EASTWARD DURING THIS
PERIOD...BUT NOT AS MUCH AS THE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED. THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE FOR THE
FIRST 48 HR...AND IS ALONG THE LEFT EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE
FROM 72-120 HR. ADDITIONAL EASTWARD ADJUSTMENTS OF THE FORECAST
TRACK MAY BE NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON IF THE CURRENT TRENDS IN THE
GUIDANCE CONTINUE.

ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN SUGGEST THAT
DANIELLE IS EXPERIENCING ABOUT 10 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. THE HURRICANE SHOULD CONTINUE IN A LIGHT/MODERATE SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT FOR 48 HR OR SO BEFORE ENCOUNTERING STRONGER SHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. ALL INTENSITY GUIDANCE
FORECAST STRENGTHENING FOR 24-48 HR AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST
FOLLOWS THAT SCENARIO...WITH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 100 KT IN 24 HR.
AFTER 48 HR...INCREASING SHEAR AND DECREASING SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CAUSE STEADY WEAKENING.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 26/1500Z 24.4N 55.9W 90 KT
12HR VT 27/0000Z 25.3N 57.3W 95 KT
24HR VT 27/1200Z 26.5N 59.1W 100 KT
36HR VT 28/0000Z 27.8N 60.4W 100 KT
48HR VT 28/1200Z 29.3N 61.2W 100 KT
72HR VT 29/1200Z 33.0N 60.5W 95 KT
96HR VT 30/1200Z 36.5N 58.5W 85 KT
120HR VT 31/1200Z 39.0N 55.0W 70 KT

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[cycloneye]

000
WTNT41 KNHC 262035
TCDAT1
HURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010
500 PM AST THU AUG 26 2010

SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON INDICATES THAT DANIELLE HAS
DEVELOPED A WELL-DEFINED 20 NM WIDE EYE WITH CLOUD TOPS TO -75C IN
THE NORTHWESTERN EYEWALL. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 18Z WERE
90 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND SINCE THAT TIME THE SATELLITE
APPEARANCE OF THE HURRICANE HAS IMPROVED. THUS...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 95 KT. THE CIRRUS IS FAIR TO GOOD IN ALL
DIRECTIONS EXCEPT TO THE SOUTH.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 315/13. FOR THE NEXT 36 HR...DANIELLE SHOULD
BE STEERED GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD BY A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE PASSING
TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE HURRICANE. AFTER THAT...A LARGE
MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE DANIELLE TO
RECURVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. WITH TWO EXCEPTIONS...THE TRACK
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THOSE
EXCEPTIONS ARE THE NOGAPS AND GFDN...WHICH FORECAST DANIELLE TO
MOVE NORTHWARD AND THEN STALL NORTH OF BERMUDA. THE NEW TRACK
FORECAST FOLLOWS THE RECURVATURE SCENARIO AND CALLS FOR DANIELLE
TO GRADUALLY ACCELERATE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AFTER 48 HR. THE NEW
TRACK IS STILL TO THE LEFT AND SLOWER THAN THE BULK OF THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS...AND ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED ON THE
NEXT ADVISORY.

ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN SUGGEST THAT
DANIELLE IS EXPERIENCING 10-15 KT OF SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. THE HURRICANE SHOULD CONTINUE IN A LIGHT/MODERATE SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT FOR 36-48 HR BEFORE ENCOUNTERING STRONGER SHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. ALL INTENSITY GUIDANCE
FORECAST STRENGTHENING FOR 24 HR OR SO AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST
FOLLOWS THAT SCENARIO...WITH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 105 KT IN 24 HR.
AFTER 48 HR...INCREASING SHEAR AND DECREASING SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CAUSE STEADY WEAKENING. EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION MAY BE UNDERWAY BY 120 HR...BUT IS EXPECTED TO BE
COMPLETED AFTER THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 26/2100Z 25.2N 57.0W 95 KT
12HR VT 27/0600Z 26.0N 58.3W 95 KT
24HR VT 27/1800Z 27.3N 60.0W 100 KT
36HR VT 28/0600Z 28.6N 61.1W 105 KT
48HR VT 28/1800Z 30.2N 61.2W 105 KT
72HR VT 29/1800Z 34.0N 59.5W 95 KT
96HR VT 30/1800Z 37.5N 56.5W 80 KT
120HR VT 31/1800Z 39.5N 51.0W 65 KT

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[cycloneye]

000
WTNT41 KNHC 270235
TCDAT1
HURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010
1100 PM AST THU AUG 26 2010

RECENT INFRARED IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE EYE OF DANIELLE HAS
CONTRACTED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS WITH AN INCREASE IN EYEWALL
CONVECTION. SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS FROM 0000Z WERE 90...90...
AND 102 KT FROM TAFB...SAB...AND THE UW-CIMSS ADT. ALTHOUGH THE
EYEWALL CONTRACTION IS USUALLY ASSOCIATED WITH AN INTENSIFYING
SYSTEM...IT IS PREFERABLE TO WAIT TO SEE IF THIS TREND CONTINUES
AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL CONSERVATIVELY REMAIN 95 KT.
DANIELLE HAS A COUPLE OF DAYS LEFT TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE WITH
LIGHT-TO- MODERATE SHEAR AND WARM WATER. AFTER THAT TIME...
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR FROM AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH IS LIKELY TO WEAKEN THE HURRICANE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND THE SHIPS MODEL.

DANIELLE HAS SLOWED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND THE INITIAL
MOTION IS 315/10. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT DAY
OR SO AS RIDGING REMAINS TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE.
THEREAFTER... THIS RIDGE ERODES AWAY DUE TO AN APPROACHING
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW IN UNANIMOUS AGREEMENT
THAT DANIELLE WILL BE PICKED UP BY THAT TROUGH AND RECURVED OUT TO
SEA. THE NHC FORECAST IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE
PREVIOUS ONE EARLY ON...THEN IS MUCH FASTER BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO THE RECURVATURE SCENARIO NOW BECOMING VERY
LIKELY. THE NEW TRACK IS STILL SLOWER THAN THE BULK OF THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS...AND ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED
ON THE NEXT ADVISORY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 27/0300Z 25.8N 57.6W 95 KT
12HR VT 27/1200Z 26.7N 59.0W 100 KT
24HR VT 28/0000Z 28.1N 60.4W 105 KT
36HR VT 28/1200Z 29.6N 60.9W 105 KT
48HR VT 29/0000Z 31.4N 60.3W 100 KT
72HR VT 30/0000Z 35.5N 56.5W 90 KT
96HR VT 31/0000Z 38.5N 50.5W 75 KT
120HR VT 01/0000Z 41.0N 42.0W 60 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[Brent]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE DANIELLE SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010
200 AM AST FRI AUG 27 2010

...DANIELLE REACHES MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.2N 58.1W
ABOUT 585 MI...940 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DANIELLE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DANIELLE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.1 WEST. DANIELLE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND NORTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF DANIELLE IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL EAST OF BERMUDA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 120 MPH...195
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DANIELLE IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE
ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 955 MB...28.20 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...LARGE AND DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN BERMUDA
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SWELLS FROM DANIELLE WILL BEGIN TO
ARRIVE ON THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES ON FRIDAY. LARGE
SURF AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE
WEEKEND. PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

HURRICANE DANIELLE SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010
0600 UTC FRI AUG 27 2010

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DANIELLE.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.2N 58.1W AT 27/0600Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 45NE 35SE 25SW 40NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 60SE 50SW 75NW.
34 KT.......180NE 120SE 105SW 135NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 240SE 250SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.2N 58.1W AT 27/0600Z
AT 27/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 57.2W

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 26.7N 59.0W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 35SE 25SW 40NW.
50 KT... 90NE 60SE 50SW 75NW.
34 KT...180NE 120SE 105SW 135NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 28.1N 60.4W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 35SW 40NW.
50 KT...100NE 75SE 60SW 75NW.
34 KT...180NE 150SE 120SW 135NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 29.6N 60.9W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 35SW 40NW.
50 KT...100NE 75SE 60SW 75NW.
34 KT...180NE 150SE 120SW 135NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 31.4N 60.3W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 75SW 75NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 120SW 135NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 35.5N 56.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 75SW 75NW.
34 KT...210NE 210SE 150SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 31/0000Z 38.5N 50.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 41.0N 42.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.2N 58.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

HURRICANE DANIELLE SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010
200 AM AST FRI AUG 27 2010

RECENT INFRARED IMAGERY HAS SHOWN THAT THE EYE OF DANIELLE HAS
CONTRACTED AND BECOME MORE DISTINCT...AND IS NOW EMBEDDED IN A RING
OF TOPS COLDER THAN -60C. A SPECIAL DVORAK CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB
AT 0415 UTC YIELDED A DATA-T NUMBER OF 6.0/115 KT. BASED ON A
BLEND OF THIS ESTIMATE AND AND RECENT ADT ESTIMATES OF 5.5/102
KT...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 105 KT. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD THROUGH 48 HOURS...SHOWING A PEAK
OF 115 KT AT 24 AND 36 HOURS. BEYOND 48 HOURS...THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS IDENTICAL TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

THE TRACK AND WIND RADII FORECASTS ARE UNCHANGED.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 27/0600Z 26.2N 58.1W 105 KT
12HR VT 27/1200Z 26.7N 59.0W 110 KT
24HR VT 28/0000Z 28.1N 60.4W 115 KT
36HR VT 28/1200Z 29.6N 60.9W 115 KT
48HR VT 29/0000Z 31.4N 60.3W 110 KT
72HR VT 30/0000Z 35.5N 56.5W 90 KT
96HR VT 31/0000Z 38.5N 50.5W 75 KT
120HR VT 01/0000Z 41.0N 42.0W 60 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[supercane]

00
FONT11 KNHC 270538
PWSAT1
HURRICANE DANIELLE SPECIAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010
0600 UTC FRI AUG 27 2010

AT 0600Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DANIELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
26.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
105 KTS...120 MPH...195 KM/HR.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME


I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE

CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.


- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -

VALID TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X X X X 1 3 9
TROP DEPRESSION X X X X 2 7 22
TROPICAL STORM X X 1 3 25 46 50
HURRICANE 99 99 99 97 72 45 19
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 1 3 6 15 37 30 16
HUR CAT 2 6 11 15 27 19 9 2
HUR CAT 3 74 54 49 36 12 4 1
HUR CAT 4 17 28 26 17 3 1 X
HUR CAT 5 1 3 4 3 1 X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 110KT 115KT 115KT 110KT 90KT 75KT 60KT


II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.


- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED

FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT

HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)

BERMUDA 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 6(12) 2(14) X(14) X(14)

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[HURAKAN]

Hurricane DANIELLE Forecast Discussion
Home Public Adv Fcst/Adv Discussion Wind Probs Maps/Charts Archive

000
WTNT41 KNHC 271451
TCDAT1
HURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010
1100 AM AST FRI AUG 27 2010

THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN OF DANIELLE HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THE
LAST ADVISORY. THE 15-20 NMI DIAMETER EYE REMAINS QUITE DISTINCT
AND EMBEDDED IN THE CENTER OF THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD MASS. CLOUD TOPS
HAVE STARTED TO COOL AND THE COLDEST CLOUD RING NOW ENCIRCLES THE
EYE ABOUT 75 PERCENT. THE SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM
TAFB WAS T6.0/115 KT. ADT ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS ARE T5.9/114 KT
AND AN ODT OF T6.1/117 KT FROM NHC. A BLEND OF THESE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES SUPPORTS MAINTAINING AN INTENSITY OF 115 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECON AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE
DANIELLE THIS AFTERNOON AND PROVIDE A MORE ACCURATE ASSESSMENT OF
THE INTENSITY.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS 305/10. DANIELLE HAS MADE A FEW
BRIEF WESTWARD WOBBLES DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT OVERALL THE
MOTION REMAINS UNCHANGED. THE TRACK WAS NUDGED SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST
THROUGH 36 HOURS MERELY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SLIGHT WESTWARD POSITION
AT 12Z. THE GUIDANCE MODELS REMAIN VERY TIGHTLY PACKED THROUGH 72
HOURS AND ARE CONSISTENT WITH DANIELLE BEGINNING RECURVATURE TO THE
NORTHEAST BY 24-36 HOURS AS THE HURRICANE ROUNDS THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SITUATED ALONG 30N
LATITUDE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE OUTFLOW OF DANIELLE ON THE EAST
SIDE THAT IS CONVERGING INTO A BROAD MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO ITS
NORTHEAST COULD BUILD THE RIDGE SLIGHTLY WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS. THE RESULT WOULD BE A MORE NORTHERLY MOTION AND SLOWER
RECURVATURE THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED. HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE IS
STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL TO THE EAST OF BERMUDA. AFTER
RECURVATURE OCCURS...A STRONG MID-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN U.S. IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE DANIELLE QUICKLY TO THE
NORTHEAST AND THEN CAPTURE THE SYSTEM AT HIGHER LATITUDES AND TURN
IT MORE POLEWARD AFTER 96 HOURS AS A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS...AND THEN A LITTLE FASTER
AND MORE POLEWARD AT DAYS 4 AND 5...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE
CONSENSUS MODEL...TVCN.

DANIELLE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO A REGION OF LOWER VERTICAL SHEAR
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT APPROACHES THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS.
OUTFLOW REMAIN QUITE IMPRESSIVE AND THE IS BEING ENHANCED TO THE
NORTH AND EAST AS THE FLOW INTERACTS WITH BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
LOCATED WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF DANIELLE. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN...DECREASING SHEAR...AND SSTS OF 29C...
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...BY 36-48 HOURS...SOUTHWESTERLY
VERTICAL SHEAR AHEAD OF THE U.S. EAST COAST TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO 25-30 KT. THE COMBINATION OF THE INCREASING SHEAR AND
DECREASING SSTS SHOULD INITIATE A STEADY WEAKENING TREND. IN THE
96-120 TIME PERIOD...DANIELLE IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION INTO A
POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE COLD WATERS OF THE NORTH
ATLANTIC. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE
SHIPS-GFDL-HWRF INTENSITY MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 27/1500Z 26.9N 59.8W 115 KT
12HR VT 28/0000Z 27.9N 60.8W 115 KT
24HR VT 28/1200Z 29.5N 61.2W 115 KT
36HR VT 29/0000Z 31.5N 60.3W 110 KT
48HR VT 29/1200Z 34.3N 57.6W 95 KT
72HR VT 30/1200Z 38.0N 52.0W 80 KT
96HR VT 31/1200Z 40.5N 43.0W 65 KT
120HR VT 01/1200Z 46.0N 28.0W 60 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[supercane]

000
WTNT31 KNHC 271453
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DANIELLE ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010
1100 AM AST FRI AUG 27 2010

...DANIELLE STILL A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.9N 59.8W
ABOUT 480 MI...770 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH...215 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...946 MB...27.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DANIELLE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DANIELLE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.8 WEST. DANIELLE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED BY TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH ON SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF DANIELLE IS EXPECTED TO PASS WELL TO THE EAST OF BERMUDA
SATURDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. DANIELLE IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
RECONNAISSANCE UNIT AIRCRAFT SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE DANIELLE THIS
AFTERNOON WILL PROVIDE A BETTER ESTIMATE OF THE EXACT STRENGTH OF
THE HURRICANE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 946 MB...27.94 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...LARGE WAVES AND DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT BERMUDA
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SWELLS FROM DANIELLE WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE
ON THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES ON SATURDAY. THESE SWELLS
ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART



000
WTNT21 KNHC 271454
TCMAT1
HURRICANE DANIELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010
1500 UTC FRI AUG 27 2010

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DANIELLE.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.9N 59.8W AT 27/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 946 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 45NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW.
34 KT.......180NE 120SE 110SW 140NW.
12 FT SEAS..330NE 270SE 250SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.9N 59.8W AT 27/1500Z
AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.6N 59.4W

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 27.9N 60.8W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 55NE 45SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT... 90NE 70SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT...180NE 140SE 120SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 29.5N 61.2W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 55NE 50SE 45SW 50NW.
50 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT...190NE 160SE 130SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 31.5N 60.3W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 55NE 50SE 45SW 50NW.
50 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT...190NE 160SE 130SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 34.3N 57.6W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT...190NE 160SE 130SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 38.0N 52.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 95SE 75SW 80NW.
34 KT...200NE 210SE 150SW 140NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 31/1200Z 40.5N 43.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 46.0N 28.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.9N 59.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

000
FONT11 KNHC 271454
PWSAT1
HURRICANE DANIELLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010
1500 UTC FRI AUG 27 2010

AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DANIELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
26.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
115 KTS...135 MPH...215 KM/HR.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME


I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE

CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.


- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -

VALID TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X X X X 1 4 8
TROP DEPRESSION X X X 1 5 13 20
TROPICAL STORM X X 2 12 37 53 51
HURRICANE 99 99 99 88 58 31 22
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 X 3 9 34 36 23 17
HUR CAT 2 3 12 23 28 13 5 3
HUR CAT 3 60 55 47 19 7 2 1
HUR CAT 4 36 27 17 5 1 X X
HUR CAT 5 2 3 3 1 X X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 115KT 115KT 110KT 95KT 80KT 65KT 60KT


II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.


- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED

FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT

BERMUDA 34 X 4( 4) 5( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[supercane]

000
WTNT41 KNHC 272043
TCDAT1
HURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010
500 PM AST FRI AUG 27 2010

THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD STRUCTURE OF DANIELLE HAS IMPROVED A LITTLE
DURING THE DAY AND THE 15-20 NMI DIAMETER EYE REMAINS VERY
DISTINCT. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN ALL QUADRANTS AND
CONTINUES TO IMPROVE TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE HURRICANE. AN AIR
FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATED DANIELLE EARLIER
THIS AFTERNOON AND FOUND A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 942 MB AND MAXIMUM
700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 119 KT...WHICH EQUATES TO ABOUT 107 KT
SURFACE WINDS. MAXIMUM SFMR WINDS WERE ONLY 101 KT...HOWEVER.
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM SAB AND TAFB WERE A CONSENSUS
T6.0/115 KT. UW-CIMSS ADT ESTIMATES ARE T6.4/125 KT... AND HAVE
BEEN INCREASING OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. A BLEND OF THESE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUPPORTS KEEPING THE INTENSITY AT 115 KT FOR
THIS ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 310/08. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS TIGHTLY PACKED THROUGH 48-72 HOURS...AND IS STILL
INDICATING SHARP RECURVATURE BY 24 HOURS AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE THAT LIES ALONG 29N-30N LATITUDE. AFTER RECURVATURE
OCCURS...A STRONG MID-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY PUSHING SOUTHEASTWARD
OFF THE EASTERN U.S. COAST AND CANADIAN MARITIMES REGION IS
FORECAST TO ACCELERATE DANIELLE QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST OR
EAST-NORTHEAST AND GRADUALLY CAPTURE THE CYCLONE AT HIGHER
LATITUDES BY 96 HOURS...AND THEN TURN IT SHARPLY POLEWARD BY 120
HOURS AS A STRONG AND DEEP EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK THROUGH 96
HOURS...AND THEN A MORE POLEWARD AT DAY 5...WHICH REMAINS
CONSISTENT WITH THE CONSENSUS MODELS...TVCN AND TVCC.

DANIELLE MAY STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS AS THE
HURRICANE MOVES INTO A REGION OF LOWER VERTICAL SHEAR AND OVER 29C
SSTS. BY 36 HOURS...HOWEVER...INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL
SHEAR AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH SHOULD COMBINE WITH
DECREASING SSTS TO INITIATE STEADY WEAKENING. AROUND 96 HOURS OR
SO...DANIELLE SHOULD BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT MERGES
WITH A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM AND BE FULLY EXTRATROPICAL BY 120
HOURS AS A VERY LARGE 60-KT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE FAR NORTH
ATLANTIC. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE VARIOUS
INTENSITY MODELS.

ALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF DANIELLE IS EXPECTED TO PASS WELL TO THE EAST
OF BERMUDA...THE LARGE AND EXPANDING WIND FIELD ON THE WEST SIDE OF
THE HURRICANE COULD BRING TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS CLOSE TO
BERMUDA ON SATURDAY. FOR THIS REASON...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR THAT ISLAND.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 27/2100Z 27.3N 60.3W 115 KT
12HR VT 28/0600Z 28.6N 61.0W 120 KT
24HR VT 28/1800Z 30.5N 60.8W 110 KT
36HR VT 29/0600Z 32.8N 59.0W 100 KT
48HR VT 29/1800Z 35.1N 56.3W 85 KT
72HR VT 30/1800Z 38.4N 49.7W 75 KT
96HR VT 31/1800Z 41.8N 39.1W 65 KT
120HR VT 01/1800Z 50.0N 28.0W 60 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER STEWART



000
WTNT31 KNHC 272043
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DANIELLE ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010
500 PM AST FRI AUG 27 2010

...DANIELLE GETTING A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED...TROPICAL STORM WATCH
ISSUED FOR BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.3N 60.3W
ABOUT 440 MI...705 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH...215 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...942 MB...27.82 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

AT 5 PM EDT...THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH FOR BERMUDA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DANIELLE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.3 WEST. DANIELLE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED BY TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH ON SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
DANIELLE IS EXPECTED TO PASS WELL TO THE EAST OF BERMUDA SATURDAY
NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. DANIELLE IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON RECENT AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT REPORTS IS 942 MB...27.82 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...LARGE WAVES AND DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT BERMUDA
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SWELLS FROM DANIELLE WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE
ON THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES ON SATURDAY. THESE SWELLS
ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

000
WTNT21 KNHC 272042
TCMAT1
HURRICANE DANIELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010
2100 UTC FRI AUG 27 2010

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

AT 5 PM EDT...THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH FOR BERMUDA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.3N 60.3W AT 27/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 942 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE 50SE 35SW 50NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 90SE 75SW 90NW.
34 KT.......180NE 150SE 130SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..330NE 270SE 250SW 250NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.3N 60.3W AT 27/2100Z
AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.1N 60.1W

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 28.6N 61.0W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 75SW 90NW.
34 KT...180NE 150SE 130SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 30.5N 60.8W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 55NE 50SE 45SW 50NW.
50 KT...100NE 90SE 75SW 90NW.
34 KT...190NE 160SE 130SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 32.8N 59.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 55NE 50SE 45SW 50NW.
50 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT...190NE 160SE 130SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 35.1N 56.3W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT...190NE 160SE 130SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 38.4N 49.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 95SE 75SW 80NW.
34 KT...200NE 210SE 150SW 140NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 31/1800Z 41.8N 39.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 50.0N 28.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.3N 60.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[cycloneye]

000
WTNT31 KNHC 272335
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DANIELLE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 26A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010
800 PM AST FRI AUG 27 2010

...DANIELLE EXPECTED TO TURN TO THE NORTH ON SATURDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.7N 60.4W
ABOUT 410 MI...660 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH...215 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...942 MB...27.82 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DANIELLE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.4 WEST. DANIELLE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH ON SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
DANIELLE IS EXPECTED TO PASS WELL TO THE EAST OF BERMUDA SATURDAY
NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. DANIELLE IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 942 MB...27.82 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...LARGE WAVES AND DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT BERMUDA
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SWELLS FROM DANIELLE WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE
ON THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES ON SATURDAY. THESE SWELLS
ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[HURAKAN]

177
WTNT21 KNHC 280234
TCMAT1
HURRICANE DANIELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010
0300 UTC SAT AUG 28 2010

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.1N 60.6W AT 28/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 942 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE 50SE 35SW 50NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 90SE 75SW 90NW.
34 KT.......180NE 150SE 130SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 240SE 270SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.1N 60.6W AT 28/0300Z
AT 28/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.7N 60.4W

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 29.2N 60.7W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 75SW 90NW.
34 KT...180NE 150SE 130SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 31.5N 59.4W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 55NE 50SE 45SW 50NW.
50 KT...100NE 90SE 75SW 90NW.
34 KT...190NE 160SE 130SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 34.2N 57.1W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 55SE 50SW 45NW.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 90SW 80NW.
34 KT...190NE 190SE 150SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 36.8N 53.9W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 90SW 80NW.
34 KT...190NE 190SE 150SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 40.0N 46.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 100SE 90SW 75NW.
34 KT...180NE 210SE 180SW 140NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 43.0N 37.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 51.5N 28.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.1N 60.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[HURAKAN]

085
WTNT31 KNHC 280242
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DANIELLE ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010
1100 PM AST FRI AUG 27 2010

...DANIELLE TURNS NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.1N 60.6W
ABOUT 385 MI...615 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH...215 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...942 MB...27.82 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DANIELLE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.6 WEST. DANIELLE IS
NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF DANIELLE IS EXPECTED TO PASS WELL TO THE EAST OF BERMUDA
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. DANIELLE IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY...WITH WEAKENING EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 942 MB...27.82 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS MAY SPREAD OVER BERMUDA ON
SATURDAY.

SURF...LARGE WAVES AND DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT BERMUDA
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SWELLS FROM DANIELLE WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE
ON THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES ON SATURDAY. THESE SWELLS
ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


421
WTNT41 KNHC 280245
TCDAT1
HURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010
1100 PM AST FRI AUG 27 2010

CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT DANIELLE
HAS STARTED AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS...WITH A 60 NM WIDE OUTER EYEWALL FORMING AROUND THE 15-20 NM
WIDE INNER EYEWALL. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 115 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY BASED ON SATELLITE ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB...BUT THIS
COULD BE A LITTLE GENEROUS DUE TO THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT. AN AIR
FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS ENROUTE TO INVESTIGATE
DANIELLE. THE HURRICANE REMAINS IN A LIGHT VERTICAL SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD TO EXCELLENT CIRRUS OUTFLOW IN ALL
DIRECTIONS.

THE HURRICANE HAS TURNED TO THE RIGHT DURING THE PAST 6 HR WITH THE
INITIAL MOTION NOW 335/8. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT DANIELLE SHOULD TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS AND ACCELERATE INTO THE WESTERLIES THEREAFTER. THERE IS SOME
SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE ON THE SPEED OF MOTION DURING EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION...WITH THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS SHOWING A FASTER
MOTION THAN THE EUROPEAN AND THE UKMET. THE TRACK FORECAST SPLITS
THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THOSE EXTREMES.

IT IS UNLIKELY THAT DANIELLE WILL HAVE TIME TO COMPLETE THE EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLE BEFORE IT ENCOUNTERS DECREASING SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING WIND SHEAR IN 24 HR OR SO. THE NEW
INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR A 115 KT INTENSITY FOR 12 HR...WITH
STEADY WEAKENING THEREAFTER. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SHOULD BEGIN
AT ABOUT 96 HR AND BE COMPLETE BY 120 HR. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS
FORECAST DANIELLE TO REMAIN A STRONG CYCLONE THROUGH TRANSITION...
AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 28/0300Z 28.1N 60.6W 115 KT
12HR VT 28/1200Z 29.2N 60.7W 115 KT
24HR VT 29/0000Z 31.5N 59.4W 110 KT
36HR VT 29/1200Z 34.2N 57.1W 100 KT
48HR VT 30/0000Z 36.8N 53.9W 85 KT
72HR VT 31/0000Z 40.0N 46.5W 70 KT
96HR VT 01/0000Z 43.0N 37.5W 65 KT
120HR VT 02/0000Z 51.5N 28.5W 65 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[cycloneye]

000
WTNT31 KNHC 280532
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DANIELLE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 27A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010
200 AM AST SAT AUG 28 2010

...DANIELLE WEAKENS A LITTLE...EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD LATER
TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.5N 61.0W
ABOUT 345 MI...560 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.05 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM AST...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DANIELLE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.0 WEST. DANIELLE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...
THE CENTER OF DANIELLE IS EXPECTED TO PASS WELL TO THE EAST OF
BERMUDA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 120 MPH...195 KM/HR
...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DANIELLE IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED
TODAY...WITH ADDITIONAL WEAKENING EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 950 MB...28.05 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS MAY SPREAD OVER BERMUDA LATER
TODAY.

SURF...LARGE WAVES AND DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT BERMUDA
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SWELLS FROM DANIELLE WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE
ON THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES LATER TODAY. THESE SWELLS
ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[Brent]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE DANIELLE ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010
500 AM AST SAT AUG 28 2010

...DANIELLE WEAKENS TO A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE...EXPECTED TO PASS
EAST OF BERMUDA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.6N 61.0W
ABOUT 340 MI...550 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.05 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DANIELLE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.0 WEST. DANIELLE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...
THE CENTER OF DANIELLE IS EXPECTED TO PASS WELL TO THE EAST OF
BERMUDA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 110 MPH...175
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DANIELLE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 950 MB...28.05 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS MAY SPREAD OVER BERMUDA LATER
TODAY.

SURF...LARGE WAVES AND DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT BERMUDA
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SWELLS FROM DANIELLE WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE
ON THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES LATER TODAY. THESE SWELLS
ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

HURRICANE DANIELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010
0900 UTC SAT AUG 28 2010

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.6N 61.0W AT 28/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 950 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE 50SE 35SW 50NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 80SE 75SW 80NW.
34 KT.......180NE 150SE 150SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..390NE 270SE 300SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.6N 61.0W AT 28/0900Z
AT 28/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.3N 61.1W

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 30.2N 60.6W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 75SW 80NW.
34 KT...180NE 150SE 150SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 33.2N 58.6W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 55NE 50SE 45SW 50NW.
50 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 90NW.
34 KT...190NE 170SE 150SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 36.7N 56.1W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 55SE 50SW 50NW.
50 KT...110NE 100SE 90SW 90NW.
34 KT...190NE 190SE 150SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 38.9N 54.3W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 100SE 90SW 80NW.
34 KT...190NE 190SE 150SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 41.5N 47.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 90SE 80SW 80NW.
34 KT...170NE 210SE 170SW 180NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 47.1N 32.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 54.5N 35.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.6N 61.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

HURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 28
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010
500 AM AST SAT AUG 28 2010

DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT DANIELLE HAS WEAKENED...LIKELY AS A RESULT OF AN EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLE. THE AIRCRAFT FOUND CONCENTRIC EYEWALLS WITH
RADII OF 20 AND 60 NM AROUND 0345 UTC...AND SUBSEQUENT SATELLITE
IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE INNER EYEWALL HAD CONTINUED TO ERODE. THE
AIRCRAFT MEASURED A MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WIND OF 100 KT AND A
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 950 MB. BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS DECREASED TO 95 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. WHILE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...DANIELLE WILL
NOT LIKELY HAVE ENOUGH TIME TO RESTRENGTHEN SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER THE
EYEWALL CYCLE COMPLETES. THE INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS LITTLE
CHANGE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND A SLOW WEAKENING IS INDICATED
BEYOND THAT TIME AS THE VERTICAL SHEAR INCREASES AND THE HURRICANE
BEGINS TO MOVE OVER COOLER WATERS. LATE IN THE PERIOD...DANIELLE
WILL LIKELY TRANSITION INTO A LARGE AND POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC...AND ONLY SLOW WEAKENING IS
INDICATED DURING THE TRANSITION PROCESS.

THE AIRCRAFT FIXED THE CENTER A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF PREVIOUS
ESTIMATES...AND SHOWED THAT DANIELLE HAS SLOWED A LITTLE. THE
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345/8. THE TRACK
GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED OVER THE FIRST 24 TO 36 HOURS...AS
DANIELLE WILL ACCELERATE TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST AS IT
INTERACTS WITH A LARGE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OFFSHORE
OF THE U.S. EAST COAST. BEYOND THAT TIME...DANIELLE WILL SLOW
TEMPORARILY FROM 48 TO 72 HOURS AS THE FIRST UPPER-TROUGH LIFTS
OUT...AND THEN ACCELERATE AGAIN TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST AS
ANOTHER TROUGH CAPTURES THE CYCLONE AND THEN PULLS IT SHARPLY
NORTHWARD BY DAY 5. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED A
LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH 24 HOURS DUE TO THE
MORE WESTERLY INITIAL POSITION OF THE CYCLONE. BEYOND THAT
TIME...A MORE SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENT TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS
TRACK WAS MADE TOWARD THE MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH 48 HOURS...AND
TOWARD A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF AT 72 HOURS AND BEYOND.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 28/0900Z 28.6N 61.0W 95 KT
12HR VT 28/1800Z 30.2N 60.6W 95 KT
24HR VT 29/0600Z 33.2N 58.6W 95 KT
36HR VT 29/1800Z 36.7N 56.1W 90 KT
48HR VT 30/0600Z 38.9N 54.3W 85 KT
72HR VT 31/0600Z 41.5N 47.0W 70 KT
96HR VT 01/0600Z 47.1N 32.4W 70 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120HR VT 02/0600Z 54.5N 35.5W 60 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[Brent]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE DANIELLE ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010
500 PM AST SAT AUG 28 2010

...DANIELLE WEAKENING A LITTLE...EXPECTED TO PASS WELL EAST
OF BERMUDA LATER TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.3N 59.7W
ABOUT 330 MI...535 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.64 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

AT 5 PM AST...THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS DISCONTINUED THE
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR BERMUDA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DANIELLE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.7 WEST. DANIELLE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. DANIELLE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 12 HOURS...AND GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO COMMENCE
ON SUNDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185
MILES...295 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...LARGE WAVES AND DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT BERMUDA
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SWELLS FROM DANIELLE WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE
ON THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES LATER TODAY. THESE SWELLS
ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA

HURRICANE DANIELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010
2100 UTC SAT AUG 28 2010

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

AT 5 PM AST...THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS DISCONTINUED THE
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR BERMUDA.

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.3N 59.7W AT 28/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB
EYE DIAMETER 45 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE 60SE 40SW 55NW.
50 KT....... 80NE 70SE 75SW 60NW.
34 KT.......160NE 140SE 140SW 130NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 300SE 400SW 330NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.3N 59.7W AT 28/2100Z
AT 28/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.6N 60.2W

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 32.3N 58.2W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 55NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 75SW 60NW.
34 KT...160NE 140SE 140SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 36.1N 55.6W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 65NE 65SE 40SW 60NW.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 140SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 38.8N 53.8W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 65NE 65SE 40SW 60NW.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 140SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 40.3N 50.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 90SE 80SW 80NW.
34 KT...170NE 210SE 170SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 45.0N 38.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 90SE 80SW 80NW.
34 KT...170NE 210SE 170SW 180NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 53.0N 33.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 54.0N 41.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.3N 59.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA

HURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 30
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010
500 PM AST SAT AUG 28 2010

VISIBLE IMAGERY AND A METOP-A AMSU OVERPASS INDICATE THAT ONLY A
FRAGMENT OF THE INNER EYEWALL EXISTS. THE AMSU IMAGE ALSO SHOWED
THAT THE 45 NMI DIAMETER OUTER CONCENTRIC RING HAS ERODED OVER THE
SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. THE DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE
DECREASED TO 90 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...AND SO HAS THE INITIAL
INTENSITY. SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR APPEARS TO BE IMPINGING THE OUTFLOW
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CYCLONE. THE SHEAR...ASSOCIATED WITH
AN APPROACHING MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...SHOULD INCREASE LATER
TONIGHT PREVENTING DANIELLE FROM RE-STRENGTHENING. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON THE ICON INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS AND
REFLECTS GRADUAL WEAKENING THROUGH DAY 4 AS THE SYSTEM COMPLETES
ITS TRANSITION INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
INTENSITY THEREAFTER.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OR 030/11.
DANIELLE HAS BEGUN TO ACCELERATE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IN
RESPONSE TO A DEEP LAYER BAROCLINIC SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN. A TEMPORARY DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST
NEAR THE 36 PERIOD AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE PASSES TO THE NORTH OF THE
CYCLONE. AT DAY 3...ANOTHER CANADIAN PULSE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...CAUSING DANIELLE TO AGAIN ACCELERATE
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD. THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD
INDUCE A SHARP TURN NORTHWARD TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST HAS AGAIN BEEN ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE
RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS...PRIMARILY THE GFS...ECMWF...AND THE CANADIAN.

INITIAL WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED USING A 1426 UTC ASCAT PASS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 28/2100Z 30.3N 59.7W 90 KT
12HR VT 29/0600Z 32.3N 58.2W 90 KT
24HR VT 29/1800Z 36.1N 55.6W 85 KT
36HR VT 30/0600Z 38.8N 53.8W 75 KT
48HR VT 30/1800Z 40.3N 50.5W 65 KT
72HR VT 31/1800Z 45.0N 38.0W 60 KT
96HR VT 01/1800Z 53.0N 33.0W 55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120HR VT 02/1800Z 54.0N 41.0W 55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA

[HURAKAN]

118
WTNT41 KNHC 290248
TCDAT1
HURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 31
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010
1100 PM AST SAT AUG 28 2010

CONVECTION IN THE OUTER EYEWALL OF DANIELLE HAS BECOME DEEPER DURING
THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH AN OCCASIONAL CELL EVEN FIRING NEAR
THE DECAYED INNER EYEWALL. SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS ARE THE
BASICALLY THE SAME AS BEFORE...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 90
KT. A SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER COOLER
WATERS AND INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. MOST OF THE GLOBAL
MODELS SHOW DANIELLE BECOMING A LARGE AND POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL
HURRICANE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC...AND THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST
IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION COULD BEGIN SOONER THAN SHOWN BELOW...AS
SUGGESTED BY A FEW MODELS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS FASTER THAN BEFORE...030/17. DANIELLE
IS CURRENTLY ACCELERATING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AS AN UPPER
TROUGH DIVES INTO THE WEST ATLANTIC OCEAN. IN 24-36 HOURS...THE
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD BRIEFLY SLOW DOWN DUE TO A FAST-MOVING
MID-LATITUDE RIDGE TO ITS NORTH. INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
BETWEEN A LARGE CENTRAL ATLANTIC RIDGE AND ANOTHER MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH SHOULD THEN CAUSE DANIELLE TO BEGIN MOVING RATHER QUICKLY TO
THE NORTHEAST IN A FEW DAYS. WHILE MOST OF THE MODELS ARE IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT BEFORE THE SYSTEM BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL...THEY
WILDLY DIVERGE FROM THAT POINT ONWARD. THE NHC FORECAST IS
ADJUSTED EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE
ECMWF/GFS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 29/0300Z 31.5N 58.8W 90 KT
12HR VT 29/1200Z 34.2N 56.8W 85 KT
24HR VT 30/0000Z 37.5N 54.7W 75 KT
36HR VT 30/1200Z 39.4N 52.5W 70 KT
48HR VT 31/0000Z 40.8N 48.7W 65 KT
72HR VT 01/0000Z 45.0N 34.0W 65 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96HR VT 02/0000Z 52.5N 30.0W 55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120HR VT 03/0000Z...ABSORBED

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE