ATL: Ex Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

[Terry]

I'd like to make a suggestion about this. I think that you guys have some legitimate questions concerning Earl. Email the NHC and tell them what you think and why and ask them why they ended the advisories. I would be interested in their response. They are always open to questions and generally will respond.

Done

Category5 - please let us know the response.

[CrazyC83]

I'd guess that would be gusts, not sustained. That's in hurricane strength territory.

Indeed those were gusts. The highest sustained winds I believe were around 110 km/h (70 mph).

If those were sustained, that would support an 80 kt intensity since it is highly unlikely the highest winds were recorded given the large RMW.

[CrazyC83]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

This is NOT official, but here is what I would do for the best track of Earl:

August 25

0000 - 14.0N / 25.8W - 30 kt - 1005mb - Tropical depression
0600 - 14.1N / 28.1W - 30 kt - 1004mb
1200 - 14.2N / 30.3W - 35 kt - 1003mb - Tropical storm
1800 - 14.4N / 31.8W - 35 kt - 1003mb

August 26

0000 - 14.6N / 33.0W - 35 kt - 1003mb
0600 - 14.8N / 34.1W - 35 kt - 1003mb
1200 - 15.0N / 35.5W - 40 kt - 1001mb
1800 - 15.2N / 37.4W - 40 kt - 999mb

August 27

0000 - 15.4N / 39.6W - 40 kt - 1000mb
0600 - 15.6N / 41.2W - 35 kt - 1002mb
1200 - 15.7N / 43.2W - 35 kt - 1002mb
1800 - 15.7N / 45.1W - 40 kt - 999mb

August 28

0000 - 15.8N / 47.2W - 45 kt - 996mb
0600 - 15.8N / 49.2W - 50 kt - 994mb
1200 - 15.9N / 51.0W - 50 kt - 993mb
1800 - 16.3N / 53.3W - 50 kt - 993mb

August 29

0000 - 16.5N / 54.6W - 55 kt - 990mb
0600 - 16.7N / 56.2W - 60 kt - 987mb
1200 - 17.1N / 57.7W - 65 kt - 985mb - Hurricane
1800 - 17.4N / 59.0W - 70 kt - 977mb

August 30

0000 - 17.7N / 60.4W - 80 kt - 971mb
0600 - 18.1N / 61.8W - 85 kt - 969mb
1200 - 18.5N / 63.0W - 95 kt - 961mb
1800 - 19.0N / 64.2W - 105 kt - 948mb

August 31

0000 - 19.6N / 65.2W - 110 kt - 938mb
0600 - 20.0N / 66.3W - 115 kt - 931mb
1200 - 20.8N / 67.4W - 110 kt - 935mb
1800 - 21.6N / 68.3W - 110 kt - 940mb

September 1

0000 - 22.6N / 69.2W - 110 kt - 941mb
0600 - 23.5N / 70.6W - 105 kt - 941mb
1200 - 24.5N / 71.6W - 105 kt - 943mb
1800 - 25.7N / 72.7W - 115 kt - 939mb

September 2

0000 - 27.1N / 73.4W - 120 kt - 931mb
0600 - 28.6N / 74.4W - 125 kt - 927mb - Minimum pressure
1200 - 30.1N / 74.8W - 115 kt - 936mb
1800 - 31.7N / 75.2W - 105 kt - 945mb

September 3

0000 - 33.0N / 74.7W - 95 kt - 950mb
0600 - 34.6N / 74.4W - 85 kt - 956mb
1200 - 36.2N / 73.5W - 75 kt - 959mb
1800 - 37.5N / 72.5W - 70 kt - 961mb

September 4

0000 - 39.0N / 70.8W - 60 kt - 961mb - Tropical storm
0600 - 40.8N / 68.3W - 65 kt - 962mb - Hurricane
1200 - 43.0N / 65.7W - 70 kt - 960mb
1430 - 43.7N / 65.1W - 70 kt - 959mb - Landfall, Western Head NS
1800 - 46.0N / 63.3W - 65 kt - 964mb

September 5

0000 - 49.5N / 60.3W - 55 kt - 971mb - Tropical storm
0600 - 51.1N / 58.0W - 45 kt - 980mb - Extratropical
1200 - 53.1N / 55.7W - 40 kt - 984mb
1800 - Absorbed in larger low

[CrazyC83]

Some notes in there:

1) I brought it down to 35 kt for a bit in the long stretch at 40 kt, when it appeared to weaken a bit.

2) The intensity in its first strengthening episode appears to be too high based on aircraft data (Dvorak given extra weight then). During that long stretch at Cat 4, I brought it down to Cat 3 for all but 6 hours (when it was 931mb).

3) The apparent slow strengthening up to landfall was taken into account. I made the assumption it weakened to a TS when Recon left, then quickly bounced back. That has some uncertainty though, it may have remained a hurricane.

4) Recon gaps were smoothed out and pressures adjusted, especially before the first Recon flight.

5) For the most part, track points are unchanged.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

My final blog post regarding this event. The official summary of the effects Earl had on Atlantic Canada:

http://hybridstorm-weatherblog.blogspot.com/2010/09/summary-effects-of-earl-on-atlantic.html

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

CBC story says they clocked winds at 135Km/H

http://www.cbc.ca/canada/nova-scotia/st ... -hits.html

Yeah, at Beaver Island in Nova Scotia which would be 85 mph a gust of course. Check out my last blog post, as noted above, it contains the official summary of Earl in Atlantic Canada.

[Category 5]

From Dennis Feltgen

"Earl strongest winds were removed from the center, and the storm's
profile was becoming baroclinic, marking the transition from tropical to
extratropical/post-tropical."

I didn't get a in depth look at the exact wind profile but that is indicative of an ET/PT system.