ATL: EARL - Models

[shah8]

The CMC shows the second trough coming in nice and fast and doing a more emphathetic pickup of Earl and doing a sharp recurve.

[shah8]

00z HWRF makes landfall on the maine-canada border. Misses NC and MA by about 50-100 miles. Inclined to weaken the storm.

[shah8]

00z GFDL misses everyone by a good bit until the canadians get it on the atlantic side of the peninsula.

[weatherguy2]

Best of consensus models of the new 06z early cycle run have shifted about 50 miles west from 00z. They pass closest now at about 57 miles ESE of NC. (The 06z run was 103 miles ESE of NC yesterday at this time). A rare east shift occurred on the 00z to break the long pattern of about 25 mile westward shift per run. But the new 06z run makes up for that with the big 50 mile shift west (farthest west for them so far).

[brunota2003]

Oh goody...if they continue the shift, they'll be right on the edge of the coast in two model runs. Guessing the NHC shifts westward some at 5 am. Then the 06Z late cycle comes out.

[Brent]

12z GFS is west:

[ROCK]

Brent that is seriously close.....

[Stephanie]

Crap, NJ!

[BigB0882]

And it is deepening as it heads up the East Coast!

[Riptide]

Still worried about the models on the western-edge of the consensus. NOGAPS, NGFDL, UKMET...
The new GFS really backs them up.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

12z GFS is west:

Interesting, on this run the pressure starts to fall again by the mid-Atlantic. I wonder if Earl will start to transition to extratropical by then?

[HurrMark]

Looks more north than west...although the trough is a bit delayed compared to the 6Z run. Still no landfall according to this run...but a teensy closer.

[artist]

remember the Gulf Stream is out there and that could be what is strengthening it. Correct me if I am wrong someone!

[Riptide]

Looks more north than west...although the trough is a bit delayed compared to the 6Z run.

This weather event is so fragile that even the slightest deviation would change the impacts drastically. NHC has continuously stated this but these last-minute model trends are just ridiculous. Tropical Storm conditions are now almost certain for any location less than 20 miles from the coast, from Hatteras to Cape Cod and beyond.

[hurricaneCW]

The strengthening could be a combination of trough enhancement, the gulf stream, and a partial transition or transitioning to extra tropical as it heads to the NE. Is this just a blip or a trend? Still over 2 days for things to shift.

[ronjon]

Much closer to the coast on the 12Z GFS run - western eyewall close to OBs and moving toward a hit on RI, SE Mass after 54 hrs.

[artist]

blow up of the above posted by hybridstorm-

[ColinDelia]

Man, this is as close as u can get

[Riptide]

The strengthening could be a combination of trough enhancement, the gulf stream, and a partial transition or transitioning to extra tropical as it heads to the NE. Is this just a blip or a trend? Still over 2 days for things to shift.

Yes but if Earl is going to accelerate and the cold front is going to continue to slow down. The TC tracks will only trend farther west.
It is no surprise in a summer with multiple heatwaves and a nasty mid-latitude ridge.

[edgeblade]

I hope these ultra-close west runs don't pan out, that would really bad news for a lot of people all along the EC. Not only would people along the coast be affected, but perhaps people a little further inland too...