WPAC: Ex-Typhoon KOMPASU (1007/08W)

[supercane]

JMA brings T number up to 5.5:
364
TCNA21 RJTD 310000
CCAA 31000 47644 KOMPASU(1007) 10251 11294 11244 255// 93110=

WTPQ22 RJTD 302100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1007 KOMPASU (1007)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 302100UTC 24.8N 129.7E GOOD
MOVE WNW 14KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 140NM NORTHEAST 100NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 312100UTC 29.6N 123.9E 75NM 70%
MOVE NW 19KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
45HF 011800UTC 34.3N 123.0E 140NM 70%
MOVE NNW 15KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
69HF 021800UTC 39.2N 127.2E 250NM 70%
MOVE NNE 15KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT =

[supercane]

TAF for Okinawa:
RODN 3022/3117 06010KT 9999 VCSH SCT015 BKN030 BKN080 BKN200 QNH2956INS
TEMPO 3022/3024 6000 -SHRA SCT015 BKN025
BECMG 3100/3101 02020G35KT 4800 -SHRA VCTS SCT010CB BKN015 OVC020 QNH2945INS
TEMPO 3104/3106 01055G75KT 0400 +TSRA BKN002 OVC010CB
BECMG 3107/3108 36075G90KT 1600 SHRA VCTS SCT010CB BKN015 OVC020 QNH2935INS
TEMPO 3108/3110 36095G105KT 0400 +TSRA BKN002 OVC005 QNH2959INS
BECMG 3116/3117 22025G35KT 3200 SHRA SCT015 BKN025 OVC080 QNH2965INS T28/3103Z T25/3117Z 2232

[StormingB81]

well that would be lower then what JTWC predicted

[supercane]

JMA 00Z advisory bumped up winds 15kt from 65kt to 80kt, which is more in line with JTWC.
WTPQ22 RJTD 310000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1007 KOMPASU (1007)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 310000UTC 25.1N 129.4E GOOD
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 140NM NORTHEAST 100NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 010000UTC 30.1N 123.7E 75NM 70%
MOVE NW 19KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
48HF 020000UTC 35.4N 123.2E 180NM 70%
MOVE N 13KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
72HF 030000UTC 41.5N 131.0E 250NM 70%
MOVE NE 22KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT =

[StormingB81]

Okinawa is now under TCCOR 1-C!

[StormingB81]

Just got update..They say Okinawa should be in TCCOR 1E by 1pm (midnight eastern) WHich means winds or 57 mpg or greater are occuring on island and shall be in there until 4 am tomorrow morning with the brunt of the storm being between 4-9 pm.

[Chacor]

This could get interesting after Okinawa; JTWC forecasting landfall on North Korea as a still-tropical typhoon.

[supercane]

WTPN32 PGTW 310300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 08W (KOMPASU) WARNING NR 010
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
310000Z --- NEAR 25.1N 129.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.1N 129.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 27.3N 127.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 29.8N 125.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 32.8N 124.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 36.0N 124.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 40.6N 131.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 41.6N 143.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
310300Z POSITION NEAR 25.6N 128.9E.
TYPHOON (TY) 08W (KOMPASU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 115 NM SOUTHEAST OF
KADENA AB, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 310000Z IS 18 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 310900Z, 311500Z, 312100Z AND 010300Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL STORM 07W (LIONROCK) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 09W (NAMTHEUN) WARNINGS (WTPN33
PGTW)FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[dhoeze]

Guys, seeing 3 systems near one another, any chance of a fujiwara effect?

[supercane]

Lionrock and Namtheun are undergoing DCI now, with Lionrock expected to be dominant.

[Infdidoll]

It's going to be really scary where we live. We live in an 8 story high rise which is a wind magnet, anyway - right on the seawall. Big, unobstructed view of the ocean. Since we've never had anything like this immediately threatening us, I'm wondering if I should be taping the windows or anything. We're on the 2nd floor and have big, picture windows in just about every room.

We're at TCOR1, now. Base is locked down...Man, sometimes I wish I lived on base. lol

Just at HK airport waiting for my flights to Indonesia - I could never have made it to Okinawa since the Taipei - Naha flight I was planning on is cancelled.

A few tips which our friends in Okinawa may already know but I'll add anyway. Big recommendation, move all stuff away from windows, because rain being blown at 100kts will make its way through window frame (get those spare towels handy!) Also try not to take elevators, if the power goes out you could be stuck in it for a while. I don't think taping windows will do a huge amount.

Filming wise have lots of kitchen tissue (not bathroom since that will leave residue on lens) to wipe off water drops on lens and if you have a small tripod that would be great!

Above all stay safe and enjoy the show. If a strong typhoon has to hit an island, Okinawa is probably the best spot due to it's tough infrastructure and experience with typhoons!

If I had an evil twin, he'd be on Okinawa right now!

Thank you for the tips! I went outside to see what I could get and there is so much rainy drizzle that it's hard to have much visibility. It's pouring down rain, right now. I was hoping it would stay clear a while longer so that I could go up on the roof of our building and get some good picture/video. If it lets up before it gets too crazy, I'm going to do it. I did get some picture, a small video clip of what's going on now...which isn't much. I've got a lot of cleaning to do. There is a piece missing from my tripod rendering it unusable and I'm infuriated about that.

I have a feeling I'm going to be spending the next hour looking for it. If I can do this, I can safely put the camera in the window and get nice, steady video from the window.

[HURAKAN]

Good luck to everyone in Okinawa. Stay safe.

[dhoeze]

stay safe please!

[Infdidoll]

Thanks, you guys! We'll do our best. I'm strangely calm, right now.

[StormingB81]

Rain is starting to become more frequent still havent had any winds yet..well to strong that is..

[temperature]

Beware that this typhoon has a rather small wind radius (at 11am JST, Naha city was only 160km - 100 miles - from the typhoon center, but the sustained wind was just 5m/s, which is negligible compared to the max sustained wind near center of 40-45m/s). A direct hit is possible in merely 4 hours, so the weather can deteriorate rapidly. For everyone on the island: don't get too far away from shelter, especially after 1pm. The wind can pick up anytime, and the situation can become extremely dangerous.

Good luck and enjoy this exciting experience~

[HurricaneBill]

This could get interesting after Okinawa; JTWC forecasting landfall on North Korea as a still-tropical typhoon.

It would be the first typhoon to hit NK since Prapiroon in 2000.



2 weeks later, SK got hit by Saomai.

[StormingB81]

Ive been in all day no plans to go anywhere dont need to go anywhere just gonna sit and watch

[theavocado]

Real RADAR (as opposed to the enhanced IR that is often mistaken for RADAR). The loop is stunning.