ATL: EARL - Advisories

[Brent]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 36
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
500 AM EDT FRI SEP 03 2010

...CENTER OF EARL PASSES EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.3N 74.0W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM E OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 465 MI...750 KM SSW OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

ALL WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED SOUTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH
CAROLINA...AND FOR THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE ABLEMARLE SOUND.

THE HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED NORTH OF THE NORTH
CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE HENLOPEN DELAWARE.

ENVIRONMENT CANADA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE COAST
OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM LISMORE SOUTHWARD AND EASTWARD TO ECUM
SECUM...AND FOR PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND.

ENVIRONMENT CANADA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR CAPE BRETON
ISLAND AND THE MAGDALEN ISLANDS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTH
CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND THE EASTERN
ALBEMARLE SOUNDS
* WESTPORT MASSACHUSETTS EASTWARD AROUND CAPE COD TO HULL
MASSACHUSETTS INCLUDING MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET ISLAND

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NOVA SCOTIA FROM MEDWAY HARBOUR TO DIGBY

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO SANDY HOOK NEW
JERSEY...INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY SOUTH OF SLAUGHTER BEACH AND THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT
* THE COAST OF LONG ISLAND NEW YORK FROM FIRE ISLAND INLET EASTWARD
ON THE SOUTH SHORE AND PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR EASTWARD ON THE NORTH
SHORE
* NEW HAVEN CONNECTICUT TO WEST OF WESTPORT MASSACHUSETTS...
INCLUDING BLOCK ISLAND
* NORTH OF HULL MASSACHUSETTS TO THE MERRIMACK RIVER
* STONINGTON MAINE EASTWARD TO EASTPORT MAINE
* THE COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM LISMORE SOUTHWARD AND EASTWARD TO
ECUM SECUM
* PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF THE MERRIMACK RIVER TO WEST OF STONINGTON MAINE
* THE COAST OF LONG ISLAND WEST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET ON THE SOUTH
SHORE AND WEST OF PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR ON THE NORTH SHORE
* NEW BRUNSWICK FROM THE U.S./CANADA BORDER EASTWARD TO FORT
LAWRENCE AND FROM TIDNISH WESTWARD TO SHEDIAC
* NOVA SCOTIA FROM ECUM SECUM NORTHEASTWARD TO POINT TUPPER...AND
EAST OF LISMORE TO POINT TUPPER
* CAPE BRETON ISLAND AND THE MAGDALEN ISLANDS

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 35.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.0 WEST. EARL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR. AN INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ARE EXPECTED IN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF EARL
WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS TODAY...AND WILL
APPROACH SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. EARL IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...BUT EARL IS EXPECTED REMAIN A LARGE
HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM. NOAA BUOY 41001 LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER
RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 59 MPH...94 KM/HR WITH A GUST
TO 72 MPH...115 KM/HR.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 955 MB...28.20 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WINDS...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING ALONG THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE OUTER BANKS DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS WILL LIKELY REACH THE COAST FROM
VIRGINIA NORTHWARD TO MASSACHUSETTS LATER TODAY...AND SPREAD OVER
THE COAST OF MAINE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA TONIGHT. HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN
MASSACHUSETTS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS
MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA OVER NORTH CAROLINA...AS WELL AS IN THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY.
STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE
GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA OVER MASSACHUSETTS.
ELSEWHERE WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA...STORM SURGE WILL
RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL.
NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

RAINFALL...EARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1
TO 2 INCHES...WITH STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...OVER
PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA INCLUDING THE OUTER BANKS.
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5
INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND. ACCUMULATIONS OF
1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA AND
ACROSS CENTRAL AND COASTAL MAINE.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS FROM EARL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE EAST COAST
OF THE UNITED STATES TODAY...AND BEGIN TO SUBSIDE IN THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS
AND RIP CURRENTS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

HURRICANE EARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 36
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
0900 UTC FRI SEP 03 2010

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

ALL WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED SOUTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH
CAROLINA...AND FOR THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE ABLEMARLE SOUND.

THE HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED NORTH OF THE NORTH
CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE HENLOPEN DELAWARE.

ENVIRONMENT CANADA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE COAST
OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM LISMORE SOUTHWARD AND EASTWARD TO ECUM
SECUM...AND FOR PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND.

ENVIRONMENT CANADA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR CAPE BRETON
ISLAND AND THE MAGDALEN ISLANDS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTH
CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND THE EASTERN
ALBEMARLE SOUNDS
* WESTPORT MASSACHUSETTS EASTWARD AROUND CAPE COD TO HULL
MASSACHUSETTS INCLUDING MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET ISLAND

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NOVA SCOTIA FROM MEDWAY HARBOUR TO DIGBY

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO SANDY HOOK NEW
JERSEY...INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY SOUTH OF SLAUGHTER BEACH AND THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT
* THE COAST OF LONG ISLAND NEW YORK FROM FIRE ISLAND INLET EASTWARD
ON THE SOUTH SHORE AND PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR EASTWARD ON THE NORTH
SHORE
* NEW HAVEN CONNECTICUT TO WEST OF WESTPORT MASSACHUSETTS...
INCLUDING BLOCK ISLAND
* NORTH OF HULL MASSACHUSETTS TO THE MERRIMACK RIVER
* STONINGTON MAINE EASTWARD TO EASTPORT MAINE
* THE COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM LISMORE SOUTHWARD AND EASTWARD TO
ECUM SECUM
* PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF THE MERRIMACK RIVER TO WEST OF STONINGTON MAINE
* THE COAST OF LONG ISLAND WEST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET ON THE SOUTH
SHORE AND WEST OF PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR ON THE NORTH SHORE
* NEW BRUNSWICK FROM THE U.S./CANADA BORDER EASTWARD TO FORT
LAWRENCE AND FROM TIDNISH WESTWARD TO SHEDIAC
* NOVA SCOTIA FROM ECUM SECUM NORTHEASTWARD TO POINT TUPPER...AND
EAST OF LISMORE TO POINT TUPPER
* CAPE BRETON ISLAND AND THE MAGDALEN ISLANDS

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.3N 74.0W AT 03/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE 60SE 60SW 45NW.
50 KT.......100NE 90SE 120SW 100NW.
34 KT.......180NE 180SE 150SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 420SE 300SW 220NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.3N 74.0W AT 03/0900Z
AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.6N 74.4W

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 37.8N 72.4W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 40NW.
50 KT...100NE 90SE 120SW 100NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 150SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 41.6N 68.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 40NW.
50 KT... 90NE 100SE 90SW 80NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 150SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 45.9N 64.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 90SE 80SW 70NW.
34 KT...190NE 180SE 140SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 50.7N 60.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 120SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z...ABSORBED BY LARGE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.3N 74.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 36A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
800 AM EDT FRI SEP 03 2010

...HURRICANE EARL CONTINUES TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST...WEATHER
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE IN THE OUTER BANKS LATER THIS MORNING...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.2N 73.6W
ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM ENE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 395 MI...640 KM SSW OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTH
CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND THE EASTERN
ALBEMARLE SOUNDS
* WESTPORT MASSACHUSETTS EASTWARD AROUND CAPE COD TO HULL
MASSACHUSETTS INCLUDING MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET ISLAND

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NOVA SCOTIA FROM MEDWAY HARBOUR TO DIGBY

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO SANDY HOOK NEW
JERSEY...INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY SOUTH OF SLAUGHTER BEACH AND THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT
* THE COAST OF LONG ISLAND NEW YORK FROM FIRE ISLAND INLET EASTWARD
ON THE SOUTH SHORE AND PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR EASTWARD ON THE NORTH
SHORE
* NEW HAVEN CONNECTICUT TO WEST OF WESTPORT MASSACHUSETTS...
INCLUDING BLOCK ISLAND
* NORTH OF HULL MASSACHUSETTS TO THE MERRIMACK RIVER
* STONINGTON MAINE EASTWARD TO EASTPORT MAINE
* THE COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM LISMORE SOUTHWARD AND EASTWARD TO
ECUM SECUM
* PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF THE MERRIMACK RIVER TO WEST OF STONINGTON MAINE
* THE COAST OF LONG ISLAND WEST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET ON THE SOUTH
SHORE AND WEST OF PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR ON THE NORTH SHORE
* NEW BRUNSWICK FROM THE U.S./CANADA BORDER EASTWARD TO FORT
LAWRENCE AND FROM TIDNISH WESTWARD TO SHEDIAC
* NOVA SCOTIA FROM ECUM SECUM NORTHEASTWARD TO POINT TUPPER...AND
EAST OF LISMORE TO POINT TUPPER
* CAPE BRETON ISLAND AND THE MAGDALEN ISLANDS

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 36.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.6 WEST. EARL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR. AN INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ARE EXPECTED IN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF EARL
WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS TODAY...AND WILL
APPROACH SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. EARL IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...BUT EARL IS EXPECTED REMAIN A LARGE
HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM. DARE COUNTY REGIONAL AIRPORT NORTH CAROLINA JUST
REPORTED A WIND GUST TO 70 MPH...113 KM/HR.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 955 MB...28.20 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WINDS...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE STILL OCCURRING ALONG THE
NORTH CAROLINA COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS MORNING. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS WILL
LIKELY REACH THE COAST FROM VIRGINIA NORTHWARD TO MASSACHUSETTS
LATER TODAY...AND SPREAD OVER THE COAST OF MAINE WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA TONIGHT. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN MASSACHUSETTS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS
MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA OVER NORTH CAROLINA...AS WELL AS IN THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY.
STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE
GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA OVER MASSACHUSETTS.
ELSEWHERE WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA...STORM SURGE WILL
RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL.
NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

RAINFALL...EARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1
TO 2 INCHES...WITH STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...OVER
PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA INCLUDING THE OUTER BANKS.
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5
INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND. ACCUMULATIONS OF
1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA AND
ACROSS CENTRAL AND COASTAL MAINE.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS FROM EARL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE EAST COAST
OF THE UNITED STATES TODAY...AND BEGIN TO SUBSIDE IN THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS
AND RIP CURRENTS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[HURAKAN]

370
WTNT42 KNHC 031459
TCDAT2
HURRICANE EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 37
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
1100 AM EDT FRI SEP 03 2010


SATELLITE IMAGES AND DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE
INDICATE THAT EARL HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
HAS BEEN REDUCED TO 75 KNOTS. THE HURRICANE IS ALREADY MOVING OVER
INCREASINGLY COOLER WATERS AND A CONTINUED WEAKENING IS
ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...EARL IS FORECAST TO PASS NEAR CAPE COD AS A
HURRICANE WITH A LARGE AREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WHICH
SHOULD AFFECT A LARGE PORTION OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND
COASTS. EARL SHOULD REACH CANADA AS A STRONG TROPICAL STORM AND
THEN BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN ABOUT 36 HOURS.

EARL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 030 DEGREES AT 18
KNOTS. THE HURRICANE HAS ALREADY RECURVED WHILE EMBEDDED IN THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH.
EARL SHOULD CONTINUE ON THIS GENERAL TRACK WITH AN INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED UNTIL DISSIPATION IN A FEW DAYS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 03/1500Z 36.8N 73.1W 75 KT
12HR VT 04/0000Z 39.7N 70.8W 70 KT
24HR VT 04/1200Z 43.8N 66.5W 60 KT
36HR VT 05/0000Z 49.0N 62.0W 45 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48HR VT 05/1200Z 52.0N 56.5W 45 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72HR VT 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[Brent]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 37A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
200 PM EDT FRI SEP 03 2010

...EARL CONTINUES TOWARD SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...37.5N 72.5W
ABOUT 290 MI...465 KM SSW OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...961 MB...28.38 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING SOUTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINA
BORDER HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WOODS HOLE EASTWARD AROUND CAPE COD TO SAGAMORE BEACH
MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET ISLAND

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NOVA SCOTIA FROM ECUM SECUM WESTWARD TO DIGBY

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINA BORDER TO SANDY HOOK NEW
JERSEY...INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY SOUTH OF SLAUGHTER BEACH AND THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT
* THE COAST OF LONG ISLAND NEW YORK FROM FIRE ISLAND INLET EASTWARD
ON THE SOUTH SHORE AND PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR EASTWARD ON THE NORTH
SHORE
* NEW HAVEN CONNECTICUT TO WEST OF WOODS HOLE MASSACHUSETTS...
INCLUDING BLOCK ISLAND
* NORTH OF SAGAMORE BEACH TO HULL MASSACHUSETTS
* STONINGTON MAINE TO EASTPORT MAINE
* THE COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM FORT LAWRENCE SOUTHWARD AND EASTWARD
TO ECUM SECUM
* TIDNISH TO LISMORE
* PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAPE ELIZABETH TO WEST OF STONINGTON MAINE
* NEW BRUNSWICK FROM THE U.S./CANADA BORDER EASTWARD TO FORT
LAWRENCE
* NOVA SCOTIA FROM ECUM SECUM NORTHEASTWARD TO LISMORE
* THE MAGDALEN ISLANDS

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 37.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.5 WEST. EARL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/HR. AN INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ARE EXPECTED IN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK WILL BE VERY NEAR OR
JUST EAST OF CAPE COD TONIGHT AND ON THE COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA ON
SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH...130
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EARL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. WEAKENING IS FORECAST...BUT EARL IS EXPECTED
REMAIN A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT APPROACHES SOUTHEASTERN NEW
ENGLAND.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM.

LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE PLANE WAS
961 MB...28.38 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WINDS...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS COULD STILL OCCUR ALONG THE COAST
FROM VIRGINIA NORTHWARD AND REACH SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND LATER
TONIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...MOST OF THE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS
WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE OF CAPE COD...HOWEVER ONLY A SMALL DEVIATION
TO THE LEFT WOULD BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS TO THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS
MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AREA OVER NORTH CAROLINA...AS WELL AS IN THE LOWER
CHESAPEAKE BAY. STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2
TO 4 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA OVER
MASSACHUSETTS. ELSEWHERE WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
AREA...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3
FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

RAINFALL...EARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR SO OF
RAINFALL...WITH ISOLATED STORM TOTALS OF 5 INCHES OVER
PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA INCLUDING THE OUTER BANKS.
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5
INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND. ACCUMULATIONS
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER COASTAL PORTIONS OF
VIRGINIA...MARYLAND AND DELAWARE AND ALSO ACROSS CENTRAL AND
COASTAL MAINE.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS FROM EARL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE EAST COAST
OF THE UNITED STATES TODAY. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE DANGEROUS
SURF CONDITIONS AND RIP CURRENTS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[cycloneye]

WTNT32 KNHC 032036
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 38
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
500 PM EDT FRI SEP 03 2010

...HURRICANE EARL REMAINS LARGE BUT IS LOSING ITS PUNCH...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...38.2N 71.8W
ABOUT 230 MI...375 KM SSW OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...961 MB...28.38 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

ALL WARNINGS SOUTH OF SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED.

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM CAPE ELIZABETH TO WEST OF STONINGTON
MAINE HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

SEVERAL CHANGES TO CANADIAN WATCHES AND WARNINGS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WOODS HOLE EASTWARD AROUND CAPE COD TO SAGAMORE BEACH
MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET ISLAND

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NOVA SCOTIA FROM ECUM SECUM WESTWARD TO DIGBY

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF LONG ISLAND NEW YORK FROM FIRE ISLAND INLET EASTWARD
ON THE SOUTH SHORE AND PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR EASTWARD ON THE NORTH
SHORE
* NEW HAVEN CONNECTICUT TO WEST OF WOODS HOLE MASSACHUSETTS...
INCLUDING BLOCK ISLAND
* NORTH OF SAGAMORE BEACH TO HULL MASSACHUSETTS
* STONINGTON MAINE TO EASTPORT MAINE
* THE ENTIRE COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA
* PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
* NEW BRUNSWICK FROM THE U.S./CANADA BORDER EASTWARD TO FORT
LAWRENCE AND FROM SHEDIAC TO TIDNISH
* THE MAGDALEN ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* POINT ESCUMINAC TO SHEDIAC NEW BRUNSWICK


FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 38.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.8 WEST. EARL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 22 MPH...35 KM/HR. AN INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED IN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...EARL WILL BE VERY NEAR
OR JUST EAST OF CAPE COD LATER TONIGHT AND ON THE COAST OF NOVA
SCOTIA ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. EARL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST...BUT EARL IS EXPECTED
REMAIN A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT APPROACHES SOUTHEASTERN NEW
ENGLAND AND NOVA SCOTIA.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 961 MB...28.38 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WINDS...ON THE FORECAST TRACK...MOST OF THE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS
WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE OF CAPE COD...HOWEVER ONLY A SMALL DEVIATION
TO THE LEFT WOULD BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS TO THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA TONIGHT.

STORM SURGE...WATER LEVELS COULD RISE BY AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3
FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FROM NEW JERSEY NORTHWARD TO CAPE COD
INCLUDING LONG ISLAND SOUND. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. WATER LEVELS WILL
CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE FROM THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA TO
DELAWARE BAY.

RAINFALL...EARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 1 TO 3 INCHES RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OVER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES POSSIBLE.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS FROM EARL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE EAST COAST
OF THE UNITED STATES TONIGHT. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE
DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND RIP CURRENTS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

032037
TCDAT2
HURRICANE EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 38
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
500 PM EDT FRI SEP 03 2010

EARL HAS BEEN MOVING OVER COOLER WATER AND WEAKENING. BASED ON THE
SATELLITE PRESENTATION AND EARLIER RECONNAISSANCE DATA...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 70 KNOTS. ALTHOUGH CONTINUED
WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED...EARL IS FORECAST TO PASS NEAR CAPE COD
AS A HURRICANE WITH A LARGE AREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS.
THESE WINDS WILL LIKELY AFFECT A LARGE PORTION OF THE MID-ATLANTIC
AND NEW ENGLAND COASTS. EARL IS EXPECTED TO REACH CANADA AS A
STRONG TROPICAL STORM AND THEN BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN ABOUT 36
HOURS.

EARL IS STILL MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 030 DEGREES AT 18
KNOTS...BUT IT SHOULD SOON INCREASE ITS FORWARD SPEED. THE HURRICANE
HAS ALREADY RECURVED WHILE EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. EARL SHOULD CONTINUE ON THIS
GENERAL TRACK WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED UNTIL DISSIPATION
IN 36 TO 48 HOURS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 03/2100Z 38.2N 71.8W 70 KT
12HR VT 04/0600Z 41.2N 69.2W 60 KT
24HR VT 04/1800Z 46.5N 64.0W 50 KT
36HR VT 05/0600Z 51.5N 59.0W 40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48HR VT 05/1800Z...ABSORBED BY A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL LOW

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[HURAKAN]

227
WTNT32 KNHC 032340
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 38A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
800 PM EDT FRI SEP 03 2010

...EARL CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN...RAIN AND WIND SPREADING OVER
LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...39.1N 70.8W
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM SSW OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...961 MB...28.38 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WOODS HOLE EASTWARD AROUND CAPE COD TO SAGAMORE BEACH
MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET ISLAND

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NOVA SCOTIA FROM ECUM SECUM WESTWARD TO DIGBY

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF LONG ISLAND NEW YORK FROM FIRE ISLAND INLET EASTWARD
ON THE SOUTH SHORE AND PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR EASTWARD ON THE NORTH
SHORE
* NEW HAVEN CONNECTICUT TO WEST OF WOODS HOLE MASSACHUSETTS...
INCLUDING BLOCK ISLAND
* NORTH OF SAGAMORE BEACH TO HULL MASSACHUSETTS
* STONINGTON MAINE TO EASTPORT MAINE
* THE ENTIRE COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA
* PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
* NEW BRUNSWICK FROM THE U.S./CANADA BORDER EASTWARD TO FORT
LAWRENCE AND FROM SHEDIAC TO TIDNISH
* THE MAGDALEN ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* POINT ESCUMINAC TO SHEDIAC NEW BRUNSWICK

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES
...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO CANADA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 39.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.8 WEST. EARL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 23 MPH...37 KM/HR. AN INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED IN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...EARL WILL BE VERY NEAR
OR JUST EAST OF CAPE COD LATER TONIGHT AND REACH THE COAST OF NOVA
SCOTIA ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EARL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS
FORECAST...BUT EARL IS EXPECTED REMAIN A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE AS
IT APPROACHES SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND AND NOVA SCOTIA TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 961 MB...28.38 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WINDS...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD INTO THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING AREA FROM LONG ISLAND TO MASSACHUSETTS THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...MOST OF THE HURRICANE-FORCE
WINDS WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE OF CAPE COD...HOWEVER ONLY A SMALL
DEVIATION TO THE LEFT OF THE FORECAST TRACK WOULD BRING HURRICANE
CONDITIONS TO THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS WILL REACH THE WARNING AREA IN MAINE EARLY SATURDAY
...AND SPREAD ACROSS THE WARNING AREA IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON
SATURDAY.

STORM SURGE...WATER LEVELS COULD RISE BY AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 FEET
ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FROM NEW JERSEY NORTHWARD TO CAPE COD INCLUDING
LONG ISLAND SOUND. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. WATER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO
SUBSIDE FROM THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA TO DELAWARE BAY.

RAINFALL...EARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 1 TO 3 INCH RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OVER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES POSSIBLE.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS FROM EARL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE EAST COAST
OF THE UNITED STATES TONIGHT. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE
DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND RIP CURRENTS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL STORM EARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 39
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
0300 UTC SAT SEP 04 2010

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE HURRICANE WARNING FROM WOODS HOLE MASSACHUSETTS EASTWARD AROUND
CAPE COD TO SAGAMORE BEACH MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING MARTHAS
VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET ISLAND HAS BEEN CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING.

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED WEST OF WATCH HILL
RHODE ISLAND AND FOR ALL OF LONG ISLAND.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NOVA SCOTIA FROM ECUM SECUM WESTWARD TO DIGBY

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WATCH HILL RHODE ISLAND EASTWARD AROUND CAPE COD TO HULL
MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING MARTHAS VINEYARD...NANTUCKET ISLAND...AND
BLOCK ISLAND
* STONINGTON MAINE TO EASTPORT MAINE
* THE ENTIRE COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA
* PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
* NEW BRUNSWICK FROM THE U.S./CANADA BORDER EASTWARD TO FORT
LAWRENCE AND FROM SHEDIAC TO TIDNISH
* THE MAGDALEN ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* POINT ESCUMINAC TO SHEDIAC NEW BRUNSWICK

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.0N 69.7W AT 04/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 22 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 958 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT.......100NE 120SE 100SW 80NW.
34 KT.......160NE 180SE 150SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 470SE 470SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.0N 69.7W AT 04/0300Z
AT 04/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.9N 70.9W

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 43.1N 66.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT...100NE 110SE 80SW 60NW.
34 KT...160NE 180SE 150SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 48.2N 61.6W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...170NE 180SE 150SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 52.5N 56.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 60SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 55.5N 54.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...210NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 57.0N 57.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 120SE 120SW 240NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 40.0N 69.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[Brent]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 39A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
200 AM EDT SAT SEP 04 2010

...EARL ACCELERATING TO THE NORTHEAST...EXPECTED TO BRING
RAIN AND STRONG WINDS TO PORTIONS OF NOVA SCOTIA...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...40.6N 68.3W
ABOUT 105 MI...165 KM ESE OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
ABOUT 240 MI...390 KM SW OF CAPE SABLE NOVA SCOTIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 30 MPH...48 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NOVA SCOTIA FROM ECUM SECUM WESTWARD TO DIGBY

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WATCH HILL RHODE ISLAND EASTWARD AROUND CAPE COD TO HULL
MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING MARTHAS VINEYARD...NANTUCKET ISLAND...
AND BLOCK ISLAND
* STONINGTON MAINE TO EASTPORT MAINE
* THE ENTIRE COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA
* PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
* NEW BRUNSWICK FROM THE U.S./CANADA BORDER EASTWARD TO FORT
LAWRENCE...AND FROM SHEDIAC TO TIDNISH
* THE MAGDALEN ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* POINT ESCUMINAC TO SHEDIAC NEW BRUNSWICK

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EARL WAS
LOCATED WAS LOCTAED BY SATELLITE AND DOPPLER RADAR TO BE NEAR
LATITUDE 40.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.3 WEST. EARL IS MOVING TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST NEAR 30 MPH...48 KM/HR...AND A GENERAL NORTHEASTWARD
MOTION WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF EARL WILL
REACH THE COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA BY EARLY AFTERNOON TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS.

EARL IS A LARGE TROPICAL STORM. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 960 MB...28.35 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WINDS...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVER
EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS THIS MORNING. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL
REACH THE WARNING AREA IN DOWNEAST MAINE LATER THIS MORNING...AND
SPREAD INTO THE WARNING AREA IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY EARLY
AFTERNOON.

STORM SURGE...WATER LEVELS COULD RISE BY AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 FEET
ABOVE GROUND LEVEL AROUND CAPE COD...ESPECIALLY IN CAPE COD BAY.
NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

RAINFALL...EARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 1 TO 3 INCH RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OVER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES POSSIBLE.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS FROM EARL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE EAST COAST
OF THE UNITED STATES FROM NEW JERSEY NORTHWARD THROUGH TODAY.
THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND RIP
CURRENTS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[cycloneye]

000
WTNT32 KNHC 041145
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 40A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
800 AM EDT SAT SEP 04 2010

...EARL VERY NEAR NOVA SCOTIA...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...42.9N 65.8W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM S OF CAPE SABLE NOVA SCOTIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 30 MPH...48 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR MAINE FROM
STONINGTON TO EASTPORT.

THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR NOVA
SCOTIA FROM ECUM SECUM TO POINT TUPPER.

THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR NOVA SCOTIA FROM DIGBY TO PORT MAITLAND HAS
BEEN DISCONTINUED.

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR NEW BRUNSWICK FROM THE U.S./CANADA
BORDER TO FUNDY NATIONAL PARK HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FOR NOVA SCOTIA FROM PORT MAITLAND TO POINT TUPPER

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE ENTIRE COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA
* PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
* NEW BRUNSWICK FROM THE FUNDY NATIONAL PARK EASTWARD TO FORT
LAWRENCE...AND FROM SHEDIAC TO TIDNISH
* THE MAGDALEN ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* POINT ESCUMINAC TO SHEDIAC NEW BRUNSWICK

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EARL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 42.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.8 WEST. EARL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 30 MPH...48 KM/HR...AND A GENERAL
NORTHEASTWARD MOTION WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF EARL WILL MOVE NEAR OR OVER NOVA SCOTIA TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
HOWEVER...EARL IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A VERY LARGE AND STRONG
EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE CANADIAN
MARITIME PROVINCES.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM
FROM THE CENTER. BUOY 44024 LOCATED ABOUT 80 MILES SOUTH OF CAPE
SABLE REPORTED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 969 MB...28.61 INCHES.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 965 MB...28.50 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WINDS...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS HAVE REACHED THE WARNING
AREA IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
TODAY.

STORM SURGE...WATER LEVELS WILL RISE ABOVE NORMAL VALUES ALONG THE
SOUTH COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA. NEAR THE COASTS...THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

RAINFALL...EARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER EASTERN MAINE...NEW BRUNSWICK...NOVA
SCOTIA...AND PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS
OF 5 INCHES POSSIBLE.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS FROM EARL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE EAST COAST
OF THE UNITED STATES FROM NEW JERSEY NORTHWARD THROUGH TODAY.
THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND RIP
CURRENTS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[cycloneye]

WTNT32 KNHC 041448
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 41
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
1100 AM EDT SAT SEP 04 2010

...TROPICAL STORM EARL MADE LANDFALL NEAR WESTERN HEAD NOVA SCOTIA
AROUND 10 AM EDT...1400 UTC. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
AFFECTING A LARGE PORTION OF THE PROVINCE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...44.3N 64.5W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM WSW OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 36 MPH...57 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR NOVA SCOTIA FROM PORT MAITLAND TO PORT
LHEBERT HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FOR NOVA SCOTIA FROM PORT LHEBERT TO POINT TUPPER

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE ENTIRE COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA
* PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
* NEW BRUNSWICK FROM THE FUNDY NATIONAL PARK EASTWARD TO FORT
LAWRENCE...AND FROM SHEDIAC TO TIDNISH
* THE MAGDALEN ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* POINT ESCUMINAC TO SHEDIAC NEW BRUNSWICK

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM EARL MADE LANDFALL NEAR WESTERN HEAD NOVA
SCOTIA EARLIER THIS MORNING. AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER
OF EARL WAS LOCATED INLAND NEAR LATITUDE 44.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE
64.5 WEST. EARL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 36 MPH...57
KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION WILL BRING EARL ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA...PRINCE
EDWARD ISLAND AND THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND EARL
SHOULD BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM
MAINLY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. NUMEROUS STATIONS IN
NOVA SCOTIA ARE REPORTING SUSTAINED TROPICAL FORCE WINDS. MCNABS
ISLAND JUST REPORTED 56 MPH...90 KM/HR WITH GUSTS TO 68 MPH...109
KM/HR. LUNENBURG REPORTED GUSTS TO 69 MPH...111 KM/HR AND A MINIMUM
PRESSURE OF 971 MB...28.67 INCHES.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 962 MB...28.41 INCHES. THIS
IS BASED ON A 963 MB...28.44 INCHES...PRESSURE REPORT BY WESTERN
HEAD AS EARL WAS MAKING LANDFALL.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WINDS...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE SPREADING OVER NOVA SCOTIA AND
WILL SPREAD OVER A LARGE PORTION OF CANADIAN MARITIMES LATER TODAY.

STORM SURGE...WATER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE ABOVE NORMAL VALUES
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA. NEAR THE COASTS...THE SURGE
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

RAINFALL...AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED OVER
EASTERN MAINE ASSOCIATED WITH EARL. THE TROPICAL STORM IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER
NEW BRUNSWICK...NOVA SCOTIA AND PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES POSSIBLE.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS FROM EARL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE NORTHEAST
COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE
DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND RIP CURRENTS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/BLAKE

WTNT42 KNHC 041449
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 41
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
1100 AM EDT SAT SEP 04 2010

EARL HAS MAINTAINED SOME CIRCULAR CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATING THAT IT IS STILL A TROPICAL CYCLONE.
HOWEVER...MOST THE RAIN SHIELD HAS BEGUN TO SHIFT TOWARD THE
NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION...AND THE WIND FIELD IS
EXPANDING ON THE SOUTH SIDE. THIS SUGGESTS THAT EARL IS GRADUALLY
BEGINNING TO ACQUIRE SOME EXTRATROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. BEST
ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 60 KNOTS...BASED ON
SURROUNDING SURFACE DATA. EARL IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL
IN ABOUT 24 HOURS AND SHOULD CONTINUE AS A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE FOR 2 TO 3 DAYS.

EARL HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE ITS FORWARD SPEED AND IS NOW MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OF 035 DEGREES AT 30 KNOTS. THIS GENERAL
TRACK WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 04/1500Z 44.3N 64.5W 60 KT
12HR VT 05/0000Z 48.0N 60.7W 50 KT...OVER WATER
24HR VT 05/1200Z 52.5N 56.0W 45 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36HR VT 06/0000Z 55.5N 53.5W 40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48HR VT 06/1200Z 57.0N 54.0W 40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72HR VT 07/1200Z 56.0N 53.0W 40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96HR VT 08/1200Z...ABSORBED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[cycloneye]

000
WTNT32 KNHC 041744
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 41A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
200 PM EDT SAT SEP 04 2010

...TROPICAL STORM EARL RAKING NOVA SCOTIA...WIND INCREASING ON
PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND...

SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...45.8N 63.2W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM S OF CHARLOTTETOWN PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 40 MPH...65 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THERE ARE SEVERAL CHANGES TO THE CANADIAN WATCHES AND WARNINGS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PORTERS LAKE TO POINT TUPPER

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NOVA SCOTIA FROM FORT LAWRENCE TO MARGARETSVILLE
* MEDWAY HARBOUR AROUND THE EAST AND NORTH SIDE OF NOVA SCOTIA TO
TIDNISH
* THE EASTERN PORTION OF PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND FROM VICTORIA TO LOWER
DARNLEY
* THE MAGDALEN ISLANDS

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EARL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 45.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.2 WEST. EARL HAS
CONTINUED TO INCREASE ITS FORWARD SPEED AND IS MOVING TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR. THIS MOTION WILL BRING EARL
ACROSS PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND AND THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE VERY
SOON.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. EARL IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL TONIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM
MAINLY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. NUMEROUS STATIONS IN
EASTERN NOVA SCOTIA ARE STILL REPORTING SUSTAINED TROPICAL FORCE
WINDS. BEAVER ISLAND ON THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA
RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 65 MPH...104 KM/HR AND GUSTS
TO 76 MPH...123 KM/HR.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 965 MB...28.50 INCHES


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WINDS...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE STILL SPREADING OVER EASTERN
NOVA SCOTIA AND PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND. THESE CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD
OVER A LARGE PORTION OF CANADIAN MARITIMES LATER TODAY.

STORM SURGE...WATER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE ABOVE NORMAL VALUES
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

RAINFALL...THE TROPICAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER NEW BRUNSWICK...NOVA SCOTIA AND
PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES POSSIBLE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/BLAKE

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 42
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
500 PM EDT SAT SEP 04 2010

...LARGE TROPICAL STORM EARL OVER THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...47.5N 62.2W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM WNW OF THE MAGDALEN ISLANDS QUEBEC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 40 MPH...65 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FROM BURGEO WESTWARD TO BOAT HARBOUR NEWFOUNDLAND.

THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WATCH
FROM PORTERS LAKE TO POINT TUPPER...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
NOVA SCOTIA FROM FORT LAWRENCE TO MARGARETSVILLE...MEDWAY HARBOUR
TO POINT TUPPER...AND TIDNISH TO BRULE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* NOVA SCOTIA FROM POINT TUPPER AROUND CAPE BRETON TO BRULE
* THE EASTERN PORTION OF PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND FROM VICTORIA TO LOWER
DARNLEY
* THE MAGDALEN ISLANDS
* NEWFOUNDLAND FROM BURGEO WESTWARD TO BOAT HARBOUR

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EARL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 47.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.2 WEST. EARL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR. THIS
MOTION WILL BRING EARL ACROSS THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE AND
NEWFOUNDLAND TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. EARL IS FORECAST TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL TONIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 966 MB...28.53 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WINDS...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE STILL OCCURRING OVER EASTERN
NOVA SCOTIA AND PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND. THESE CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD
OVER WESTERN NEWFOUNDLAND TONIGHT.

RAINFALL...RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH EARL SHOULD DECREASE TONIGHT OVER
THE REGION.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/BLAKE

000
WTNT42 KNHC 042033
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 42
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
500 PM EDT SAT SEP 04 2010

LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE EARL HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 35 KNOTS PRODUCING SUSTAINED TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE
CYCLONE IS BECOMING A LITTLE BIT ASYMMETRIC AND THE WIND FIELD IS
EXPANDING...BUT THERE IS PLENTY OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION NEAR THE
CENTER FOR SUCH A HIGH LATITUDE CYCLONE. THIS MEANS THAT EARL STILL
IS RETAINING ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST
TO MOVE OVER THE COLD WATERS OF THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE AND
BECOME POST-TROPICAL LATER TONIGHT.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 04/2100Z 47.5N 62.2W 60 KT
12HR VT 05/0600Z 52.0N 58.5W 45 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24HR VT 05/1800Z 55.0N 55.0W 40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36HR VT 06/0600Z 55.7N 51.0W 40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48HR VT 06/1800Z 57.0N 51.0W 35 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72HR VT 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[cycloneye]

Last Advisory

000
WTNT32 KNHC 050232
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 43
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
1100 PM EDT SAT SEP 04 2010

...EARL BECOMES POST-TROPICAL AS IT RACES ACROSS ATLANTIC CANADA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...50.7N 59.2W
ABOUT 180 MI...295 KM SW OF MARYS HARBOUR LABRADOR
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 46 MPH...74 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.64 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR THE MAGDALEN ISLANDS...PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND AND NOVA
SCOTIA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* NEWFOUNDLAND FROM STONES COVE TO BOAT HARBOUR

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN CANADA...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL STORM EARL
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 50.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.2 WEST. EARL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 46 MPH...74 KM/HR. THIS
MOTION WILL BRING EARL ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN QUEBEC...
SOUTHEASTERN LABRADOR AND INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TONIGHT. A
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH ARE EXPECTED
IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. EARL IS NOW POST-TROPICAL...AND WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 240 MILES...390 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WINDS...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE STILL OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS
OF WESTERN NEWFOUNDLAND.

RAINFALL...RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH EARL SHOULD DECREASE TONIGHT OVER
THE REGION.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON EARL. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON EARL CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH
SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

000
WTNT42 KNHC 050235
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 43
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
1100 PM EDT SAT SEP 04 2010

OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS THE WIND FIELD OF EARL HAS BECOME
INCREASINGLY ELONGATED AND THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE NOW WELL REMOVED
FROM THE CENTER. DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH
INTERACTING WITH EARL HAS BEEN ENTRAINED THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
SEMICIRCLE OF THE CYCLONE. ALSO...THE EASTERN PORTION OF EARL/S
CIRCULATION IS NOW INVOLVED WITH A FRONTAL ZONE. BASED ON ALL
OF THIS...EARL IS NOW DECLARED POST-TROPICAL...AND THIS WILL BE THE
LAST NHC ADVISORY ON EARL. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 55 KT
BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS EARL
COMPLETES THE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION PROCESS.

THE FORWARD SPEED HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE...AND IS NOW 030/40.
THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF
POST-TROPICAL EARL NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS LABRADOR AND INTO THE
ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. EARL WILL THEN MOVE SLOWLY
NORTHWARD AND NORTHWESTWARD FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT BECOMES A
VERTICALLY STACKED COLD CORE CYCLONE BEFORE ACCELERATING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC AND DISSIPATING IN 4 OR 5 DAYS. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF.

EARL IS STILL PRODUCING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS OF
ATLANTIC CANADA. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON POST-TROPICAL EARL IN
CANADA...SEE PRODUCTS FROM ENVIRONMENT CANADA.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON POST-TROPICAL EARL CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH
SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 05/0300Z 50.7N 59.2W 55 KT...POST-TROPICAL
12HR VT 05/1200Z 52.9N 55.4W 40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24HR VT 06/0000Z 55.0N 52.0W 35 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36HR VT 06/1200Z 57.0N 53.0W 35 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48HR VT 07/0000Z 57.0N 55.0W 35 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72HR VT 08/0000Z 54.0N 50.0W 35 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96HR VT 09/0000Z 52.0N 36.0W 25 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120HR VT 10/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[Chacor]

CHC 0300 UTC:

WOCN31 CWHX 050300
POST-TROPICAL STORM EARL INTERMEDIATE INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA
AT 12.30 AM NDT SATURDAY 05 SEPTEMBER 2010.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3.30 AM NDT

AT MIDNIGHT ADT... POST-TROPICAL STORM EARL WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 51.4 N AND LONGITUDE 57.6 W... ABOUT 55 NAUTICAL MILES
OR 100 KM WEST OF ST ANTHONY.

EARL IS MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTH NORTHEAST AT 24 KNOTS... 45
KM/H. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 55 KNOTS... 102
KM/H AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 974 MB.

IN ADDITION TO THE STRONG WINDS WHICH WERE OBSERVED IN NOVA SCOTIA,
HERE WERE THE RECORDED PEAK WAVE HEIGHTS FROM A FEW OF OUR REPORTING
BOUYS:

EAST SCOTIAN SLOPE 18.3 M
HALIFAX HARBOUR 23.3 M
LAHAVE BANK 25.1 M

PUBLIC AND MARINE INTERESTS ARE ADVISED TO MONITOR FORECASTS
AND WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THEIR REGION BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA.

END MARCH/BORGEL

[tropicana]

Post-tropical storm Earl information statement issued by the
Canadian Hurricane Centre of Environment Canada at 3.30 AM NDT
Sunday 05 September 2010.

1. Current position, strength, central pressure and motion

At 3.00 AM ADT... Post-tropical storm Earl was located near
Latitude 51.7 N and longitude 56.9 W... About 40 nautical miles
Or 75 km ( 45miles) northwest of st anthony NL . Maximum sustained winds are
Estimated at 50 knots... 93 km/h...60mph... And central pressure
At 976 MB. Earl is moving northeast at 18 knots... 33 km/h./ 21mph

2. Forecast position, central pressure and strength

Date time lat lon MSLP Max wind
ADT MB kts kmh
Sep 05 3.00 AM 51.7N 56.9W 976 50 93 post-tropical
Sep 05 9.00 AM 54.1N 54.5W 980 45 83 post-tropical
Sep 05 3.00 PM 55.1N 52.6W 985 40 74 post-tropical
Sep 05 9.00 PM 55.5N 50.7W 990 35 65 post-tropical
Sep 06 3.00 AM 55.2N 48.9W 992 35 65 post-tropical
Sep 06 9.00 AM 55.0N 47.1W 994 35 65 post-tropical
Sep 06 3.00 PM 55.0N 45.4W 995 35 65 post-tropical
Sep 06 9.00 PM 54.9N 43.8W 996 35 65 post-tropical
Sep 07 3.00 AM 54.8N 42.0W 998 35 65 post-tropical
Sep 07 9.00 AM 54.7N 40.1W 999 35 65 post-tropical
Sep 07 3.00 PM 54.6N 39.6W 999 35 65 post-tropical

3. Public weather impacts and warnings summary
Tropical storm warnings remain in effect for western portions of
Newfoundland. These should be lifted in the coming hours.

4. Marine weather impacts and warnings summary
Gale warnings are in effect for portions of the Newfoundland
Marine district. Gales are in effect for some maritime waters
But are not associated with post-tropical Earl.

5. Technical discussion for meteorologists

A. Analysis
The centre of Earl has been a challenge to locate. Based on
Analyzed surface data and satellite imagery it appears the center
Is just moving inland near Blanc Sablon Québec. The initial intensity
for this forecast is 50 knots.

B. Prognostic
Earl is now slowing down considerably after rapidly moving through
the gulf of st. Lawrence last evening as it enters a weakness in
Mid and upper level flow. Numerical model early-track guidance is
unanimous in Earl slowly drifting eastward through the northern
Belle Isle Bank Sunday then east of Newfoundland waters by Monday.
Canadian Gem reg model develops a deep low over the Labrador Sea,
however we feel it is in response to a separate vorticity maximum
And not the circulation of post-tropical Earl.

C. Public weather
A band of rain continues to affect the Northern Peninsula, however
this should come to an end shortly. Very strong winds along Western
Newfoundland will ease as Earl moves northeastward.

D. Marine weather

Predicted wind radii (NM)
Time gales storms hurricane
Ne se sw nw ne se sw nw ne se sw nw
05/06Z 250 250 250 250 100 100 100 100 0 0 0 0
05/12Z 250 250 250 250 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
05/18Z 250 250 250 250 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
06/00Z 250 250 250 250 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
06/06Z 250 250 250 250 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
06/12Z 250 250 250 250 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
06/18Z 250 250 250 250 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
07/00Z 250 250 250 250 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
07/06Z 250 250 250 250 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
07/12Z 250 250 250 250 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
07/18Z 250 250 250 250 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

End March/borgel

[tropicana]

Post-tropical storm Earl intermediate information statement
Issued by the Canadian Hurricane Centre of Environment Canada
At 6.30 AM NDT Sunday 05 September 2010.


At 6.30 AM NDT... Post-tropical storm Earl was located near
Latitude 52.1 N and longitude 56.5 W... About 45 nautical miles
Or 80 km(50miles) north northwest of st anthony.

Earl is moving towards the north northeast at 31 knots... 57
Km/h (35mph) . Maximum sustained winds are estimated at 48 knots... 89
Km/h ( 55mph) and central pressure at 980 MB.

Public and marine interests are advised to monitor forecasts
And warnings issued for their region by Environment Canada.

[tropicana]

Post-tropical storm Earl information statement issued by the
Canadian Hurricane Centre of Environment Canada at 9.30 AM NDT
Sunday 05 September 2010.

The next statement will be issued by 3.30 PM NDT
1. Current position, strength, central pressure and motion

At 9.30 AM NDT... Post-tropical storm Earl was located near
Latitude 53.1 N and longitude 55.7 W... About 105 nautical miles
Or 190 km ( 120 miles) north of st anthony NL . Maximum sustained winds are
Estimated at 40 knots... 74 km/h...45mph And central pressure at 984 MB.
Earl is moving northeast at 14 knots... 26 km/h/16mph.

2. Forecast position, central pressure and strength

Date time lat lon MSLP Max wind
NDT MB kts kmh
Sep 05 9.30 AM 53.1N 55.7W 984 40 74 post-tropical
Sep 05 3.30 PM 54.2N 54.1W 985 40 74 post-tropical
Sep 05 9.30 PM 54.8N 52.4W 990 35 65 post-tropical
Sep 06 3.30 AM 55.1N 50.3W 992 35 65 post-tropical
Sep 06 9.30 AM 55.1N 48.2W 994 35 65 post-tropical
Sep 06 9.30 PM .............................Dissipated

3. Public weather impacts and warnings summary
Nil

4. Marine weather impacts and warnings summary
Some gales over Newfoundland and Labrador marine areas.

5. Technical discussion for meteorologists

A. Analysis
Surface data indicates that post tropical Earl is moving off the
coast of Southern Labrador. The cloud mass on satellite imagery
Is well north of this location indicating a strongly sheared
environment. Earl is also becoming absorbed into a larger
Mid latitude low pressure system.

B. Prognostic
Earl continues to slow down as it enters the weakness in the mid and
upper atmospheric flow. Model guidance is diverged between two
scenerios, Earl bends to the north and eventually northwest in
response to the upper low over Central Québec, or simply drifts off
to the east. In any event Earl is now forecast to be absorbed in 24
to 36 hours. This latest track is similar to the previous one, but
It is possible Earl could move more north instead of northeast.

C. Public weather
Nil

D. Marine weather

Predicted wind radii (NM)
Time gales storms hurricane
Ne se sw nw ne se sw nw ne se sw nw
05/12Z 120 150 150 120 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
05/18Z 120 150 150 120 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
06/00Z 120 150 150 120 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
06/06Z 120 150 150 120 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
06/12Z 120 150 150 120 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

End March/miller

[tropicana]

Post-tropical storm Earl intermediate information statement
Issued by the Canadian Hurricane Centre of Environment Canada
At 12.30 PM NDT Sunday 05 September 2010.

The next statement will be issued by 3.30 PM NDT

At 12.30 PM NDT... Post-tropical storm Earl was located near
Latitude 53.6 N and longitude 54.9 W... About 140 nautical miles or
260 km (160 miles) north northeast of st anthony NL

Earl is moving towards the northeast at 15 knots... 28 km/h/ 17mph.
Maximum sustained winds are estimated at 40 knots... 74 km/h / 45mph and
central pressure at 984 MB.

Marine interests are advised to monitor forecasts
And warnings issued for their region by Environment Canada

[tropicana]

FINAL STATEMENT ON EARL BY CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE

WOCN31 CWHX 051800
Post-tropical storm Earl information statement issued by the
Canadian Hurricane Centre of Environment Canada at 3.30 PM NDT
Sunday 05 September 2010.

This is the final statement on post-tropical storm Earl
1. Current position, strength, central pressure and motion

At 3.30 PM NDT... Post-tropical storm Earl has been absorbed by
A mid latitude low pressure centre located near latitude
54.2 N and longitude 54.1 W... About 180 nautical miles
Or 340 km/ 210 miles north northeast of st anthony . Maximum sustained
Winds are estimated at 40 knots... 74 km/h...45mph... And central pressure
At 990 MB.

2. Forecast position, central pressure and strength

Date time lat lon MSLP Max wind
NDT MB kts kmh
Sep 05 3.30 PM 54.5N 55.1W 985 40 74 post-tropical

3. Public weather impacts and warnings summary
Nil

4. Marine weather impacts and warnings summary
Some gales over Newfoundland and Labrador marine areas.

5. Technical discussion for meteorlogists

A. Analysis
The surface position of post-tropical Earl has become
Impossible to differentiate from the centre of a mid
Latitude cold core low off the coast of Labrador. Surface
Pressures from coastal Labrador and a drifting buoy have
Been used to estimate this final location and central
Pressure of Earl.

B. Prognostic
Future forecasts for Labrador marine and public areas will
Be based on the motion and development of the mid
Latitude low.

End miller