ATL: EARL - Advisories

[HURAKAN]

397
WTNT22 KNHC 251433
TCMAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
1500 UTC WED AUG 25 2010

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 30.8W AT 25/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 30.8W AT 25/1500Z
AT 25/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 30.3W

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 14.7N 33.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 15.2N 36.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 16.0N 39.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 16.5N 42.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT... 75NE 25SE 0SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 18.0N 48.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 50SE 25SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 19.0N 53.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 20.5N 57.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.3N 30.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA


487
WTNT42 KNHC 251434
TCDAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
1100 AM AST WED AUG 25 2010

THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER THAT MOVED OFF THE WEST COAST OF
AFRICA TWO DAYS AGO AND PASSED SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
YESTERDAY HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND IS NOW TROPICAL
DEPRESSION SEVEN. THE DEPRESSION HAS A LARGE CYCLONIC ENVELOPE WITH
WELL-DEFINED CYCLONICALLY-CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDS...AND AN
ESTABLISHED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.
T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB ARE 2.0...WITH DATA-T NUMBERS OF
2.5...ON THE DVORAK SCALE SUPPORT TROPICAL DEPRESSION STATUS AND
VERY CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY. THE DEPRESSION WILL LIKELY
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY AND THERE IS UNUSUALLY WARM
WATER OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...AND THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN LOW FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. THESE CONDITIONS WOULD FAVOR A
GRADUAL STRENGTHENING AND EVEN DESPITE THE SMALL INCREASE IN SHEAR
AT DAYS 4 AND 5...THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE
FOR INTENSIFICATION. BOTH CLIMATOLOGY AND DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE ON
THE SIDE OF STRENGTHENING AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR THE
DEPRESSION TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN THREE DAYS OR SO.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 KNOTS
TO THE SOUTH OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. THEREAFTER...THE
CYCLONE MOST LIKELY WILL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS IT REACHES A
WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LEFT BY DANIELLE. BY THEN...THE
CYCLONE SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASICALLY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE TIGHTLY
CLUSTERED GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. MOST OF THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS A
PERSISTENT TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. IF THIS PATTERN
MATERIALIZES...IT WOULD STEER THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AWAY
FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 25/1500Z 14.3N 30.8W 30 KT
12HR VT 26/0000Z 14.7N 33.7W 35 KT
24HR VT 26/1200Z 15.2N 36.5W 40 KT
36HR VT 27/0000Z 16.0N 39.5W 45 KT
48HR VT 27/1200Z 16.5N 42.5W 55 KT
72HR VT 28/1200Z 18.0N 48.5W 65 KT
96HR VT 29/1200Z 19.0N 53.5W 75 KT
120HR VT 30/1200Z 20.5N 57.0W 85 KT

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[cycloneye]

000
WTNT42 KNHC 252029
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
500 PM AST WED AUG 25 2010

THE FIFTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON...TROPICAL STORM EARL...HAS
FORMED IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...ONE WEEK EARLIER THAN CLIMATOLOGY.
HIGH RESOLUTION SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE CIRCULATION HAS
CONTINUE TO GROW AND THE CONVECTION...BOTH IN CLUSTERS AND CURVED
BANDS HAS CONTINUE TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB
AND SAB HAVE REACHED 3.0 AND 2.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE INDICATING
THAT THE WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO AT LEAST 35 KNOTS. MOST OF THE
GLOBAL MODELS AS WELL AS SHIPS GUIDANCE DEPICT AN ENVIRONMENT OF
RELATIVELY LOW SHEAR ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. THE LOW SHEAR
COMBINED WITH UNUSUALLY WARM OCEAN WOULD FAVOR A GRADUAL
STRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR EARL TO BECOME A
HURRICANE IN ABOUT TWO DAYS.

THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/14 KNOTS. MOST OF THE
GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A PERSISTENT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING
FROM AFRICA TO NEAR 60 DEGREES WEST. THIS STEERING PATTERN WILL
LIKELY KEEP THE CYCLONE ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT 3
TO 4 DAYS. A GRADUAL TURN MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST AT
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE CYCLONE REACHES THE WESTERN
EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL FIVE DAY FORECAST
POSITION WAS ADJUSTED SOUTHWARD A LITTLE BIT...AND IS BASICALLY ON
TOP OF THE GFS AND THE ECMWF LOCATION FOR THAT TIME PERIOD. THIS WAS
BASED ON THE REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT OF THESE TWO RELIABLE MODELS
IN FIVE DAYS. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD A
LITTLE BIT...THE CORE OF THE CYCLONE IS STILL FORECAST TO PASS TO
THE NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. LETS SEE WHAT HAPPENS IN THE
NEXT MODEL CYCLE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 25/2100Z 14.4N 32.2W 35 KT
12HR VT 26/0600Z 14.6N 34.6W 40 KT
24HR VT 26/1800Z 15.0N 38.0W 45 KT
36HR VT 27/0600Z 15.5N 41.0W 55 KT
48HR VT 27/1800Z 16.0N 44.0W 65 KT
72HR VT 28/1800Z 17.0N 50.0W 75 KT
96HR VT 29/1800Z 18.0N 55.0W 80 KT
120HR VT 30/1800Z 20.0N 60.0W 80 KT

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[hurricanefloyd5]

000
WTNT32 KNHC 252029
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
500 PM AST WED AUG 25 2010

...EARL...THE FIFTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON FORMS IN THE
EASTERN ATLANTIC AHEAD OF CLIMATOLOGY...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.4N 32.2W
ABOUT 520 MI...840 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EARL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 32.2 WEST. EARL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR. THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS KEEPING THE CYCLONE
OVER THE WATERS OF THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND EARL COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY FRIDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM
TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

I am sorry if I posted this and it has already been posted??!!!

[cycloneye]

WTNT42 KNHC 260241
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
1100 PM AST WED AUG 25 2010

THE OVERALL ORGANIZATION OF EARL HAS CHANGED LITTLE THIS EVENING.
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SEVERAL CURVED BANDS OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CYCLONE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 35 KT AND IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
LATEST SATELLITE ESTIMATES. THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF EARL APPEARS
CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL STRENGTHENING. BOTH THE STATISTICAL AND
DYNAMICAL MODELS INTENSIFY THE CYCLONE INTO A HURRICANE WITHIN A
COUPLE OF DAYS. THE LATEST ITERATIONS OF THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS
SHOW HIGHER WIND SPEEDS AT DAYS 4 AND 5 THAN BEFORE. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS NHC ADVISORY
THROUGH 72 HOURS...BUT IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE HIGHER THEREAFTER TO
BE MORE IN LINE WITH THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS...ICON.

SINCE THE CENTER HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO DISCERN IN INFRARED
IMAGERY...THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 275/14. EARL
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST
IS EXPECTED AROUND DAY 4 AS THE CYCLONE NEARS THE WESTERN PORTION
OF THE RIDGE. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS
SCENARIO THROUGH 72 HOURS AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE THROUGH THAT TIME. THEREAFTER...
THERE IS MORE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE WITH THE UKMET...NOGAPS...AND
GFDN SHOWING AN EARLIER TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. FOR NOW...
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL REMAIN ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AT DAYS 4 AND 5...CLOSER TO THE USUALLY
RELIABLE ECMWF...GFS...AND GFDL MODELS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 26/0300Z 14.7N 33.6W 35 KT
12HR VT 26/1200Z 15.0N 35.9W 40 KT
24HR VT 27/0000Z 15.5N 39.1W 45 KT
36HR VT 27/1200Z 16.0N 42.3W 55 KT
48HR VT 28/0000Z 16.4N 45.4W 65 KT
72HR VT 29/0000Z 17.4N 51.3W 75 KT
96HR VT 30/0000Z 19.0N 56.5W 85 KT
120HR VT 31/0000Z 21.5N 60.5W 90 KT

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[HURAKAN]

612
WTNT22 KNHC 261433
TCMAT2
TROPICAL STORM EARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
1500 UTC THU AUG 26 2010

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 37.1W AT 26/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 30SE 50SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 50NE 0SE 50SW 50NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 37.1W AT 26/1500Z
AT 26/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 36.3W

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 15.4N 39.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 15.7N 42.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT... 60NE 45SE 45SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 16.1N 46.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 45SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 16.5N 49.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 35SE 25SW 40NW.
34 KT... 85NE 75SE 60SW 85NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 17.8N 54.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 35SE 25SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 75SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 20.0N 58.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 31/1200Z 22.5N 61.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.9N 37.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART


939
WTNT32 KNHC 261434
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
1100 AM AST THU AUG 26 2010

...EARL MOVING WESTWARD OVER THE OPEN TROPICAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.9N 37.1W
ABOUT 1735 MI...2795 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EARL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 37.1 WEST. EARL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR...AND A WEST TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
AND EARL COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY EARLY SATURDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[cycloneye]

WTNT42 KNHC 261459
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
1100 AM AST THU AUG 26 2010

VISIBLE AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE EARL HAS NOT BECOME
ANY BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY. IN FACT...THE INNER
CORE CONVECTION HAS ERODED DUE TO DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT NOTED IN
CONVENTIONAL WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND IN A 0735Z SSMI WATER VAPOR
IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 40 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY
BASED ON A BLEND OF SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KT AND 35
KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...RESPECTIVELY.

THE CENTER OF EARL HAS BEEN REPOSITIONED ABOUT 30 NMI SOUTH OF THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND FORECAST TRACK BASED ON A BLEND OF VISIBLE
AND MICROWAVE FIXES. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A 24-HOUR
AVERAGE OF 275/15...AFTER SMOOTHING THROUGH ALL THE WIGGLES AND
WOBBLES IN THE FIXES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK WAS SHIFTED SOUTH
OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY DUE IN PART TO THE MORE SOUTHWARD INITIAL
POSITION. OTHERWISE...THERE REMAINS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE
PREVIOUS TRACK REASONING. EARL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE STEADILY WEST TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS AND THEN GRADUALLY TURN
NORTHWESTWARD AND SLOW DOWN AS THE CYCLONE APPROACHES A WEAKNESS IN
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THIS
WEAKNESS IN THE STEERING FLOW IS THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF HURRICANE
DANIELLE AND A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH FORECAST TO CAPTURE AND LIFT OUT
THAT HURRICANE TO THE NORTHEAST. IF DANIELLE RECURVES FASTER THAN
CURRENTLY EXPECTED...WHICH THE UKMET AND ECMWF ARE HINTING AT...
THEN THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF EARL COULD BUILD BACK IN SOONER AND
KEEP EARL ON A SLOWER WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THAN INDICATED BY
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK. THE ADVISORY TRACK LIES ALONG THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE TIGHTLY PACKED MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE AND
SIMILAR TO THE SPEED OF THE CONSENSUS MODEL...TVCN.

ALL OF THE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN
QUITE LOW THROUGH 72 HOURS OR SO...WHICH WOULD FAVOR SIGNIFICANT
INTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER...THE DRY MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT THAT EARL
IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH DURING THAT TIME IS EXPECTED TO RESULT
IN A SLOWER THAN NORMAL RATE OF INTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER...BY DAYS
4 AND 5...EARL IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWESTERLY PERIPHERY
OF SYNOPTIC-SCALE 200 MB ANTICYCLONE...WHICH GENERALLY FAVORS
DEVELOPMENT DUE TO ENHANCED OUTFLOW TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE
CYCLONE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT EARL COULD REACH MAJOR HURRICANE
STRENGTH BY THAT TIME...AS INDICATED BY THE HWRF MODEL. THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE VARIOUS INTENSITY
MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 26/1500Z 14.9N 37.1W 40 KT
12HR VT 27/0000Z 15.4N 39.4W 45 KT
24HR VT 27/1200Z 15.7N 42.6W 50 KT
36HR VT 28/0000Z 16.1N 46.0W 55 KT
48HR VT 28/1200Z 16.5N 49.1W 65 KT
72HR VT 29/1200Z 17.8N 54.4W 75 KT
96HR VT 30/1200Z 20.0N 58.5W 85 KT
120HR VT 31/1200Z 22.5N 61.0W 95 KT

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[HURAKAN]

735
WTNT32 KNHC 262048
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
500 PM AST THU AUG 26 2010

...EARL GETTING A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES WESTWARD
OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.2N 38.8W
ABOUT 1620 MI...2610 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EARL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 38.8 WEST. EARL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR...AND A WEST TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
AND EARL COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY SATURDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[supercane]

000
WTNT42 KNHC 262055
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
500 PM AST THU AUG 26 2010

INNER-CORE CONVECTION REMAINS SHALLOW AND LOOSELY ORGANIZED...BUT
THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN AND STRUCTURE HAS IMPROVED AND BECOME
MORE CIRCULAR IN VISIBLE IMAGERY. AN 1150Z ASCAT PASS EARLIER THIS
MORNING INDICATED EARL POSSESSED A LARGE SWATH OF 34-KT WINDS MORE
THAN 90 NMI NORTH OF THE CENTER...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT HIGHER
NEAR-SURFACE WINDS GIVEN THE LOW BIAS OF ASCAT WINDS. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 40 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY BASED ON A BLEND OF
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KT AND 35 KT FROM TAFB
AND SAB...RESPECTIVELY..AND THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT WINDS. EARL
ALSO PASSED JUST NORTH OF PIRATA BUOY 13008 AROUND 1800Z...WHICH
REPORTED A PRESSURE OF 1003 MB. THIS PRESSURE VALUE WOULD ALSO
SUPPORT AN INTENSITY OF ABOUT 40 KT.

EARL REMAINS ON TRACK WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 280/16. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK REMAINS UNCHANGED THROUGH 48 HOURS AS THE
STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH REMAINS IN PLACE. BY 72
HOURS...EARL IS FORECAST TO APPROACH A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE AXIS
INDUCED BY DANIELLE AND A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO
HELP RECURVE THAT HURRICANE TO THE NORTHEAST. AS EARL APPROACHES
THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE...IT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SLOW DOWN
AND TURN MORE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF MODELS
ARE NOW FORECASTING DANIELLE TO RECURVE TO THE NORTHEAST FASTER
THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...WHICH ALSO ALLOWS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
BETWEEN EARL AND DANIELLE TO BUILD BACK IN TO THE NORTH OF EARL.
THIS DEVELOPING FLOW PATTERN WOULD FORCE EARL MORE WESTWARD THAN
NORTHWARD AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED BY DAYS 4 AND 5. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH 72
HOURS...AND THEN A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
AFTER THAT. THE FORECAST REMAINS ON THE NORTHERN OR RIGHT EDGE OF
THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IN THE EVENT THE CIRCULATION CENTER
REDEVELOPS FARTHER NORTH WITHIN THE BROAD CONVECTIVE CLOUD MASS.

ALTHOUGH THE MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST LOW VERTICAL SHEAR ACROSS
EARL THROUGH THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...THE CYCLONE STILL HAS TO
TRAVERSE THROUGH AN ENVIRONMENT OF DRY MID-LEVEL AIR. BY 48
HOURS...SOME OF THE NORTHERLY OUTFLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF HURRICANE
DANIELLE IS EXPECTED TO CREATE SOME MODEST NORTHERLY SHEAR ACROSS
EARL...WHICH MAY INHIBIT THE DEVELOPMENT PROCESS. HOWEVER...BY DAYS
4 AND 5...THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS EARL MOVES INTO THE SOUTHWEST
PERIPHERY OF A LARGE SYNOPTIC-SCALE 200 MB ANTICYCLONE...WHICH
SHOULD ACT TO ENHANCE THE OUTFLOW TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE
CYCLONE. THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS ARE ALSO INDICATING DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS FAVORABLE OUTFLOW PATTERN AND STRENGTHEN EARL TO CATEGORY 4
INTENSITY BY 120 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE
LOWER THAN THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS THROUGH 72 HOURS AND THEN
HIGHER AT DAYS 4 AND 5...BUT NOT AS HIGH AS THE GFDL/HWRF MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 26/2100Z 15.2N 38.8W 40 KT
12HR VT 27/0600Z 15.6N 41.2W 45 KT
24HR VT 27/1800Z 15.9N 44.4W 55 KT
36HR VT 28/0600Z 16.3N 47.7W 60 KT
48HR VT 28/1800Z 16.7N 50.8W 65 KT
72HR VT 29/1800Z 18.2N 55.9W 75 KT
96HR VT 30/1800Z 20.6N 60.0W 85 KT
120HR VT 31/1800Z 23.0N 62.5W 100 KT

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[supercane]

000
WTNT32 KNHC 262048
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
500 PM AST THU AUG 26 2010

...EARL GETTING A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES WESTWARD
OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.2N 38.8W
ABOUT 1620 MI...2610 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EARL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 38.8 WEST. EARL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR...AND A WEST TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
AND EARL COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY SATURDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

000
FONT12 KNHC 262048
PWSAT2
TROPICAL STORM EARL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
2100 UTC THU AUG 26 2010

AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EARL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
15.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 38.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME


I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE

CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.


- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -

Code: Select all

VALID TIME   06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       X       1       1       1       1       1       1
TROP DEPRESSION  6       4       5       4       3       2       2
TROPICAL STORM  90      72      57      46      31      22      15
HURRICANE        5      24      38      49      65      75      83
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1        4      21      32      34      38      34      31
HUR CAT 2        X       2       4      11      16      23      23
HUR CAT 3        1       1       2       3       9      14      22
HUR CAT 4        X       X       1       1       2       4       7
HUR CAT 5        X       X       X       X       X       1       1
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND   45KT    55KT    60KT    65KT    75KT    85KT   100KT


II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS             

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING           
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)         
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)     

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                 
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                 


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - - 

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM
  TIME       18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO 
             06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION       KT                                                   

PONCE          34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)

SAN JUAN       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   6( 9)

SAINT THOMAS   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   7(12)
SAINT THOMAS   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
SAINT THOMAS   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)

SAINT CROIX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   6(10)
SAINT CROIX    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
SAINT CROIX    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)

SAINT MAARTEN  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)   9(19)
SAINT MAARTEN  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   4( 8)
SAINT MAARTEN  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)

ST KITTS-NEVIS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)   7(16)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)

BARBUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  14(15)   8(23)
BARBUDA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   4(10)
BARBUDA        64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)

ANTIGUA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  12(13)   5(18)
ANTIGUA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   3( 8)
ANTIGUA        64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)

GUADELOUPE     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  10(11)   3(14)
GUADELOUPE     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)
GUADELOUPE     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)

AVES           34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   2( 6)

DOMINICA       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   2( 9)
DOMINICA       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)

MARTINIQUE     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   1( 6)

SAINT LUCIA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[cycloneye]

000
WTNT42 KNHC 270232
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
1100 PM AST THU AUG 26 2010


AFTER LOSING MOST OF ITS DEEP CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON...EARL
HAS DEVELOPED NEW THUNDERSTORM CELLS AROUND THE LARGE AND
WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION TONIGHT. T-NUMBERS HAVE NOT CHANGED AND
STILL SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS. EARL IS MOVING
TOWARD A WARMER OCEAN AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE UNDER RELATIVELY
LIGHT SHEAR FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT
EARL WILL DEVELOP A DEEP CIRCULATION SURROUNDED BY A LARGE
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS NORMALLY IS AN INDICATION OF
STRENGTHENING AND IN FACT...BOTH THE HWRF AND GFDL MODELS DEVELOP
EARL INTO AN INTENSE HURRICANE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
ON THIS BASIS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR EARL TO BECOME A
HURRICANE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS WITH ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION
THEREAFTER.

ALTHOUGH THERE IS A LARGE CIRCULATION...THE CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO
LOCATE. USING ENHANCED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MICROWAVE DATA...THE
BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280 DEGREES AT 15 KNOTS.
EARL IS TRAPPED SOUTH OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM
AFRICA WESTWARD TO NEAR 60 DEGREES WEST. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP THE
CYCLONE ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS OR SO. EARL
SHOULD THEN BEGIN TO TURN MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST
AS IT APPROACHES 60W WHERE THERE IS A PERSISTENT WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS ARE IN REMARKABLY GOOD
AGREEMENT AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE...BUT BIASED TO THE RELIABLE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 27/0300Z 15.5N 40.2W 40 KT
12HR VT 27/1200Z 16.0N 42.8W 40 KT
24HR VT 28/0000Z 16.3N 46.0W 45 KT
36HR VT 28/1200Z 16.5N 49.3W 55 KT
48HR VT 29/0000Z 16.7N 52.5W 65 KT
72HR VT 30/0000Z 18.5N 58.0W 75 KT
96HR VT 31/0000Z 21.0N 62.0W 85 KT
120HR VT 01/0000Z 24.0N 65.0W 100 KT

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[supercane]

Tropical Storm EARL Public Advisory

Home Public Adv Fcst/Adv Discussion Wind Probs Maps/Charts Archive

000
WTNT32 KNHC 271431
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
1100 AM AST FRI AUG 27 2010

...EARL CONTINUES WESTWARD OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.7N 43.6W
ABOUT 1300 MI...2090 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

RESIDENTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF EARL.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EARL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 43.6 WEST. EARL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. EARL COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA


000
WTNT22 KNHC 271430
TCMAT2
TROPICAL STORM EARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
1500 UTC FRI AUG 27 2010

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

RESIDENTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF EARL.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 43.6W AT 27/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 75NE 60SE 0SW 75NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 30SE 0SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 43.6W AT 27/1500Z
AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 42.6W

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 15.8N 45.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 40SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 16.3N 49.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 16.8N 53.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 25NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 17.5N 56.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 35SE 25SW 40NW.
34 KT... 85NE 75SE 60SW 85NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 18.8N 60.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 75SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 31/1200Z 21.5N 64.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 25.0N 67.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.7N 43.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

000
WTNT42 KNHC 271431
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
1100 AM AST FRI AUG 27 2010

THE OVERALL PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS. EARL CONTINUES TO HAVE A LARGE CIRCULATION...MODERATE BANDS
OF DEEP CONVECTION AND FAIR OUTFLOW. DVORAK SATELLITE ESTIMATES
STILL SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS. THE OCEAN AND THE
ATMOSPHERE APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION...AND THIS IS
REFLECTED IN THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE WHICH ARE ALL SHOWING
STRENGTHENING. IN FACT...BOTH GFDL AND HWRF ARE AGGRESSIVE IN
MAKING EARL AN INTENSE HURRICANE IN 5 DAYS. ACCORDINGLY...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS EARL BECOMING A MAJOR HURRICANE BY THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

EARL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 KNOTS EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE EASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE SOUTH SIDE OF A NARROW
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THEREAFTER...THE CYCLONE WILL BEGIN TO
APPROACH A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND SHOULD BEGIN TO
TURN MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST FOR
THE FIRST 48 HOURS SINCE THE STEERING CURRENTS ARE WELL
ESTABLISHED. ONCE THE CYCLONE BEGINS TO APPROACH 60 DEGREES WEST...
THE TRACK MODELS ARE IN LESS AGREEMENT AND THERE IS LESS CONFIDENCE
IN THE FORECAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN BETWEEN THE GFS AND
THE ECMWF AND IS A LITTLE BIT SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.

A DEVIATION TO THE SOUTH OF THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING
EARL INTO THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. WITH THE WEEKEND
COMING...RESIDENTS IN THESE ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF EARL.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 27/1500Z 15.7N 43.6W 40 KT
12HR VT 28/0000Z 15.8N 45.8W 45 KT
24HR VT 28/1200Z 16.3N 49.5W 50 KT
36HR VT 29/0000Z 16.8N 53.0W 60 KT
48HR VT 29/1200Z 17.5N 56.0W 70 KT
72HR VT 30/1200Z 18.8N 60.5W 80 KT
96HR VT 31/1200Z 21.5N 64.0W 90 KT
120HR VT 01/1200Z 25.0N 67.0W 100 KT

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

000
FONT12 KNHC 271431
PWSAT2
TROPICAL STORM EARL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
1500 UTC FRI AUG 27 2010

AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EARL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
15.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 43.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME


I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE

CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.


- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -

VALID TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X 1 1 1 1 1 1
TROP DEPRESSION 6 7 5 2 3 2 2
TROPICAL STORM 90 78 56 38 25 18 17
HURRICANE 5 15 39 60 72 80 81
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 4 13 32 39 37 33 31
HUR CAT 2 X 1 4 14 19 23 23
HUR CAT 3 1 1 2 5 11 18 20
HUR CAT 4 X X 1 2 3 5 6
HUR CAT 5 X X X X 1 1 1
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 45KT 50KT 60KT 70KT 80KT 90KT 100KT


II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.


- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED

FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT

BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)

SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)

MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)

GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7)
GRAND TURK 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)

PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5)

SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)

PONCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 3(11)
PONCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)

SAN JUAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 4(18)
SAN JUAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6)
SAN JUAN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)

SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15(18) 4(22)
SAINT THOMAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8)
SAINT THOMAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4)

SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) 2(18)
SAINT CROIX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6)
SAINT CROIX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3)

SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 18(33) 2(35)
SAINT MAARTEN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) X(15)
SAINT MAARTEN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8)

ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 12(25) 1(26)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) X(10)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5)

BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 25(26) 12(38) X(38)
BARBUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 9(17) 1(18)
BARBUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9)

ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) 10(30) 1(31)
ANTIGUA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) X(11)
ANTIGUA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5)

GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 6(20) X(20)
GUADELOUPE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5)
GUADELOUPE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)

AVES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7)

DOMINICA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) X(10)

MARTINIQUE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7)

SAINT LUCIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)

BARBADOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[supercane]

000
WTNT42 KNHC 272030
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
500 PM AST FRI AUG 27 2010

EARL CONTINUES TO HAVE A LARGE CIRCULATION AND THE ASSOCIATED DEEP
CONVECTION HAS BEEN PULSATING DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
CURRENTLY...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW SEVERAL CONVECTIVE
CYCLONICALLY CURVED BANDS DEVELOPING ON ITS WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. AN
EARLIER ASCAT PASS AS WELL AS THE LATEST SATELLITE ESTIMATES
INDICATE THAT THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 40 KNOTS. GIVEN THE
CURRENT POORLY ORGANIZED PATTERN...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IS
ANTICIPATED TONIGHT. HOWEVER...EARL WILL BE MOVING SOON OVER AN
EVEN WARMER OCEAN AND UNDER AN UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT MORE
FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR EARL
TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY SUNDAY AND BECOME AN INTENSE ONE BY DAY
FIVE. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH GUIDANCE WHICH HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY
FORECASTING INTENSIFICATION.

ALTHOUGH THE CIRCULATION IS LARGE THE CENTER HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO
LOCATE. IT APPEARS THAT I WAS EITHER SLOW THIS MORNING OR EARL HAS
ACCELERATED A LITTLE BIT. THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION
IS 270 DEGREES OR WESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS. EARL IS EXPECTED TO BE
STEERED BY THE EASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FOR THE
NEXT DAY OR SO. THEREAFTER...THE CYCLONE WILL REACH THE WESTERN
EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN MORE TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST. I FEEL A LITTLE MORE CERTAIN WITH THE
NORTHWESTWARD TURN IN THIS FORECAST SINCE ALL TRACK GUIDANCE
UNANIMOUSLY BEGIN TO MOVE EARL ON A MORE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY COURSE
BY 48 HOURS. HOWEVER...A DEVIATION TO THE SOUTH OF THE CURRENT
FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING EARL INTO THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.
WITH THE WEEKEND COMING...RESIDENTS IN THESE ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF EARL.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 27/2100Z 15.8N 46.0W 40 KT
12HR VT 28/0600Z 15.9N 48.7W 40 KT
24HR VT 28/1800Z 16.3N 52.2W 50 KT
36HR VT 29/0600Z 17.0N 55.5W 60 KT
48HR VT 29/1800Z 17.5N 58.0W 70 KT
72HR VT 30/1800Z 19.5N 62.2W 80 KT
96HR VT 31/1800Z 23.0N 65.0W 90 KT
120HR VT 01/1800Z 27.0N 68.0W 100 KT

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

000
WTNT32 KNHC 272030
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
500 PM AST FRI AUG 27 2010

...EARL RACING WESTWARD OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH NO CHANGE IN
STRENGTH YET...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.8N 46.0W
ABOUT 1140 MI...1835 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...32 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
FRENCH SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY. THIS TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 72 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FRENCH SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY

RESIDENTS IN THE REMAINDER OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EARL.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EARL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 46.0 WEST. EARL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. EARL IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA


000
WTNT22 KNHC 272030
TCMAT2
TROPICAL STORM EARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
2100 UTC FRI AUG 27 2010

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
FRENCH SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY. THIS TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 72 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FRENCH SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY

RESIDENTS IN THE REMAINDER OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EARL.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 46.0W AT 27/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......100NE 75SE 0SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..135NE 30SE 15SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 46.0W AT 27/2100Z
AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 45.1W

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 15.9N 48.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 0SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 16.3N 52.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 0SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 17.0N 55.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 17.5N 58.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 85NE 75SE 60SW 85NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 19.5N 62.2W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 31/1800Z 23.0N 65.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 27.0N 68.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N 46.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[cycloneye]

KNHC 272335
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
800 PM AST FRI AUG 27 2010

...EARL MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.9N 46.9W
ABOUT 1080 MI...1735 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...32 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FRENCH SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY

THIS TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN 72 HOURS.

RESIDENTS IN THE REMAINDER OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EARL.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EARL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 46.9 WEST. EARL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. EARL IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BEVEN

[HURAKAN]

340
WTNT32 KNHC 280250
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
1100 PM AST FRI AUG 27 2010

...EARL CONTINUES WESTWARD...A LITTLE STRONGER...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 47.9W
ABOUT 1015 MI...1635 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...32 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FRENCH SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY

THIS TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN 72 HOURS.

RESIDENTS IN THE REMAINDER OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EARL. WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS
OF THESE ISLANDS TOMORROW.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EARL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 47.9 WEST. EARL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION WITH A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE
WEEKEND. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER OF EARL COULD APPROACH
THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS ON SUNDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AND EARL
COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[HURAKAN]

365
WTNT42 KNHC 280255
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
1100 PM AST FRI AUG 27 2010

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN THE
WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF EARL. BANDING FEATURES ARE BECOMING BETTER
DEFINED...AND A THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER IS LOCATED NEAR OR JUST
SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER. SATELLITE ESTIMATES ARE A CONSENSUS 45 KT
FROM TAFB/SAB...AND THAT WILL BE THE INITIAL INTENSITY. THE CLOUD
PATTERN SUGGESTS THAT NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR HAS INCREASED DURING THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THIS SHEAR WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THERE IS ALSO EVIDENCE THAT SOME
DRIER AIR IS LURKING NEAR THE CYCLONE. THUS THE INTENSITY FORECAST
WILL BE A BIT BELOW MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE FOR THE FIRST 36
HOURS. THEREAFTER...EARL WILL BE MOVING CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF A
LARGE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE NORTHEAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.
THIS PATTERN IS QUITE FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION...ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING THE 29C PLUS SSTS IN THE PATH OF THE HURRICANE. THE
GFDL/GFDN RESPOND TO THESE CONDITIONS BY FORECASTING EARL TO BECOME
A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE IN THE LONG-RANGE. WHILE THE NEW NHC
FORECAST WILL NOT BE THAT AGGRESSIVE...IT IS INCREASED FROM THE
PREVIOUS ONE AND IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE ABOVE DYNAMICAL
GUIDANCE AND THE LGEM MODEL.

A SERIES OF MICROWAVE PASSES SUGGESTS THE CENTER REMAINS A BIT
ELONGATED...THUS CONFIDENCE IN MY INITIAL MOTION OF 275/18 IS LOWER
THAN AVERAGE. A STRONG RIDGE BETWEEN EARL AND DANIELLE IS EXPECTED
TO KEEP THE TROPICAL STORM MOVING GENERALLY WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT
DAY OR SO. AFTER THAT TIME...EARL WILL REACH THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE RIDGE AND IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST.
ALTHOUGH ALL OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE CENTER NORTHEAST OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS...THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW CLOSE EARL
WILL COME. THE GFS HAS THE STRONGEST RIDGE IN THE GLOBAL MODELS
AND MOVES THE CYCLONE CLOSER TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS THAN MOST OF
THE OTHER GUIDANCE. AT THIS POINT...IT IS PRUDENT NOT TO MAKE ANY
CHANGES IN THE TRACK FORECAST IN THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS...
ESPECIALLY SINCE THE CYCLONE HAS MOVED FASTER TOWARDS THE WEST THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THE NHC FORECAST REMAINS ON THE LEFT EDGE OF
THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE THROUGH THE FIRST THREE DAYS...THEN IS JUST
LEFT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS AT THE END.

RESIDENTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF EARL THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED AS EARLY
AS SATURDAY MORNING.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 28/0300Z 16.0N 47.9W 45 KT
12HR VT 28/1200Z 16.2N 50.7W 50 KT
24HR VT 29/0000Z 16.6N 54.0W 55 KT
36HR VT 29/1200Z 17.3N 56.8W 65 KT
48HR VT 30/0000Z 18.1N 59.1W 80 KT
72HR VT 31/0000Z 20.5N 63.0W 100 KT
96HR VT 01/0000Z 24.5N 66.0W 110 KT
120HR VT 02/0000Z 29.0N 68.5W 105 KT

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[cycloneye]

000
WTNT32 KNHC 280535
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 11A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
200 AM AST SAT AUG 28 2010

...EARL CONTINUES QUICKLY WESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.1N 48.6W
ABOUT 965 MI...1560 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...32 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FRENCH SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY

THIS TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN 72 HOURS.

RESIDENTS IN THE REMAINDER OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EARL. WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS
OF THESE ISLANDS AS EARLY AS THIS MORNING.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EARL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 48.6 WEST. EARL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A TURN TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER OF EARL COULD
APPROACH THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS ON SUNDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AND EARL COULD BECOME A
HURRICANE BY SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BRENNAN

[Brent]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
500 AM AST SAT AUG 28 2010

...EARL STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY...NEW TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.7N 50.1W
ABOUT 875 MI...1410 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR THE ISLANDS OF ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS
...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH FOR THE ISLANDS OF ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND
ST. EUSTATIUS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY
* ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA
* ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EARL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 50.1 WEST. EARL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/HR. A TURN TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
EARL COULD APPROACH THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS ON SUNDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AND EARL
COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY TONIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA
BY SUNDAY NIGHT.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BRENNAN

TROPICAL STORM EARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
0900 UTC SAT AUG 28 2010

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR THE ISLANDS OF ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS
...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH FOR THE ISLANDS OF ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND
ST. EUSTATIUS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY
* ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA
* ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 50.1W AT 28/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 18 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 75NE 45SE 45SW 75NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 45SE 15SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 50.1W AT 28/0900Z
AT 28/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 49.2W

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 16.0N 52.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 35NE 20SE 0SW 35NW.
34 KT... 80NE 55SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 16.5N 55.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 45NE 30SE 20SW 35NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 17.2N 58.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 35SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT...120NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 18.2N 60.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 35SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT...120NE 80SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 20.8N 64.2W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 45SE 35SW 45NW.
34 KT...150NE 100SE 75SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 24.5N 67.5W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 29.5N 69.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.7N 50.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BRENNAN

TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
500 AM AST SAT AUG 28 2010

EARL HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. THE CLOUD PATTERN
CONSISTS OF A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST WITH CLOUD TOPS TO -80 C AND A
LARGE CURVED BAND OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE STORM. THE
CIRRUS OUTFLOW HAS IMPROVED TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CENTER BUT
REMAINS RESTRICTED OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS ARE 45 KT AND 55 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...
RESPECTIVELY. ON THIS BASIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO
50 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

A 0413 UTC TRMM OVERPASS INDICATED THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF EARL
WAS LOCATED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ESTIMATES. USING
A COMBINATION OF THIS OVERPASS AND SATELLITE FIXES YIELDS AN
INITIAL MOTION OF 270/18. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE
SUBTROPICAL CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO KEEP EARL ON A RATHER
QUICK WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD COURSE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO. THEREAFTER...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO NEAR A BREAK IN THE
RIDGE...AND THAT SHOULD CAUSE A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST. WHILE THE
GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON THE GENERAL EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE SCALE
PATTERN...THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES ON THE DETAILS OF THE
TIMING...LOCATION AND SHARPNESS OF THE TURN. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
IS NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION AND TRENDS TOWARD THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS.

ALL OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS EARL MOVES OVER EVEN WARMER WATERS AND
INTO A MORE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WIND ENVIRONMENT. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS ADJUSTED UPWARD FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS AND NOW
BRINGS EARL TO HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 24 HOURS AND TO MAJOR
HURRICANE STATUS IN 3 DAYS. BEYOND 72 HOURS...SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR
IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE...WHICH SHOULD HALT INTENSIFICATION AND
POSSIBLY INDUCE GRADUAL WEAKENING. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST...WHICH IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE INTENSITY
MODEL CONSENSUS.

THE FORECAST NECESSITATES THE ISSUANCE OF TROPICAL STORM WATCHES FOR
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 28/0900Z 15.7N 50.1W 50 KT
12HR VT 28/1800Z 16.0N 52.7W 60 KT
24HR VT 29/0600Z 16.5N 55.7W 65 KT
36HR VT 29/1800Z 17.2N 58.3W 75 KT
48HR VT 30/0600Z 18.2N 60.5W 85 KT
72HR VT 31/0600Z 20.8N 64.2W 100 KT
96HR VT 01/0600Z 24.5N 67.5W 110 KT
120HR VT 02/0600Z 29.5N 69.5W 100 KT

$$

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
800 AM AST SAT AUG 28 2010

...EARL CONTINUES HEADING WESTWARD AT A GOOD CLIP...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.8N 51.2W
ABOUT 800 MI...1290 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY
* ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA
* ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EARL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 51.2 WEST. EARL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/HR. A TURN TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
EARL COULD APPROACH THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS ON SUNDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. EARL COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY TONIGHT OR SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA
BY SUNDAY NIGHT.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[cycloneye]

000
WTNT32 KNHC 281435
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
1100 AM AST SAT AUG 28 2010

...EARL HAS NOT STRENGTHENED YET...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 51.8W
ABOUT 760 MI...1225 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY
* ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA
* ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EARL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 51.8 WEST. EARL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR. A TURN TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
EARL COULD APPROACH THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS ON SUNDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ALTHOUGH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY TODAY....EARL COULD
STILL BECOME A HURRICANE ON SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA
BY SUNDAY NIGHT.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[cycloneye]

000
WTNT42 KNHC 281436
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
1100 AM AST SAT AUG 28 2010

ALTHOUGH THE CIRCULATION CONTINUES TO BE LARGE AND VIGOROUS AND THE
AMOUNT OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED SINCE YESTERDAY...VISIBLE
IMAGES INDICATE THAT CENTER HAS BECOME EXPOSED AND IS LOCATED ON
THE NORTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. THIS HAS RESULTED
FROM SOME MODEST NORTHERLY SHEAR CAUSED BY THE OUTFLOW OF LARGER
HURRICANE DANIELLE. ALTHOUGH THE CYCLONE IS LESS ORGANIZED THAN
EARLIER TODAY...T-NUMBERS HAVE NOT CHANGED MUCH AND THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 50 KNOTS...BUT THE INTENSITY COULD BE LOWER.
THE CURRENT NORTHERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO ABATE SOON AS DANIELLE
MOVES NORTHWARD AND...IN FACT...MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION BY
SUNDAY. THIS FLOW PATTERN...IN COMBINATION WITH A WARM OCEAN ALONG
THE TRACK...WOULD RESULT IN INTENSIFICATION. EARL IS FORECAST TO
BECOME A HURRICANE BY SUNDAY WITH A STEADY INTENSIFICATION
THEREAFTER.

EARL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT ABOUT 16 OR 17
KNOTS STEERED BY THE FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
HOWEVER...IN A DAY OR SO...EARL WILL BE APPROACHING THE WESTERN
EDGE OF THE RIDGE AND THE CYCLONE SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN MORE TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST. THE TRACK MODELS DIVERGE BEYOND 48
HOURS BUT ONCE AGAIN...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AND THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE HAVE SHIFTED A LITTLE BIT SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD.
NEVERTHELESS...THE EXPECTED STEERING PATTERN STILL FAVORS A
GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. AT
THIS TIME...IT IS NOT NECESSARY TO CHANGE THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
FOR THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS BUT A DEVIATION OF THE TRACK TO
THE WEST WOULD REQUIRE ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS.

A NOAA-P3 AIRCRAFT RESEARCH MISSION WILL PROBABLY CHECK THE SYSTEM
LATER TODAY WHILE A NOAA GULFSTREAM JET SAMPLES THE ENVIRONMENT.
THE FIRST AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INTO EARL IS SCHEDULED
FOR EARLY SUNDAY.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 28/1500Z 16.0N 51.8W 50 KT
12HR VT 29/0000Z 16.1N 54.3W 55 KT
24HR VT 29/1200Z 17.0N 57.5W 65 KT
36HR VT 30/0000Z 17.8N 60.0W 75 KT
48HR VT 30/1200Z 18.7N 62.0W 85 KT
72HR VT 31/1200Z 21.5N 66.0W 95 KT
96HR VT 01/1200Z 25.0N 69.0W 100 KT
120HR VT 02/1200Z 30.0N 71.0W 100 KT

$$
FORECASTER AVILA