WOCN31 CWHX 010000
Hurricane Earl information statement issued by the canadian
Hurricane centre of Environment Canada at 9.00 PM ADT Tuesday
31 August 2010.
...Hurricane Earl moving northwest off the Bahamas..Likely to
Impact Eastern Canada this weekend...
The next statement will be issued by 3.00 AM ADT
1. Current position, strength, central pressure and motion
At 9.00 PM ADT... Hurricane Earl was located near latitude 22.5 N
And longitude 69.1 W... About 630 nautical miles or 1150 km
south-southwest of Bermuda. Maximum sustained winds are
Estimated at 115 knots... 213 km/h... And central pressure at 940
MB. Earl is moving northwest at 13 knots... 24 km/h.
2. Forecast position, central pressure and strength
Date time lat lon MSLP Max wind
ADT MB kts kmh
Aug 31 9.00 PM 22.5N 69.1W 940 115 213
Sep 01 9.00 AM 24.3N 71.4W 942 115 213
Sep 01 9.00 PM 26.9N 74.0W 943 115 213
Sep 02 9.00 AM 29.5N 75.2W 944 115 213
Sep 02 9.00 PM 32.5N 74.8W 950 105 194
Sep 03 9.00 AM 35.7N 73.2W 962 95 176
Sep 03 9.00 PM 39.1N 70.6W 968 90 167
Sep 04 9.00 AM 42.7N 66.5W 974 75 139 transitioning
Sep 04 9.00 PM 47.0N 61.9W 983 65 120 transitioning
Sep 05 9.00 AM 52.1N 57.7W 987 60 111 post-tropical
Sep 05 9.00 PM 58.6N 54.9W 992 50 93 post-tropical
3. Public weather impacts and warnings summary
No warnings to speak of here as Earl is not expected to impact
Atlantic Canada for several days. However, given the current track
warnings are likely toward the end of the week. With the expected
Arrival of Earl or its remnants this weekend..The public should
certainly pay close attention regarding weekend plans that may be
sensitive to wind and rain conditions.
4. Marine weather impacts and warnings summary
Currently no warnings in effect. As Earl approaches the Maritimes,
Warnings will likely be issued later this week..And for portions
Of the Newfoundland marine district this coming weekend.
5. Technical discussion for meteorlogists
A. Analysis
Earl is moving to the west-northwest as it rounds the western
Edge of the sub-tropical ridge over the Atlantic ocean. The eye of
Earl continues to be somewhat obscured on infrared satellite imagery
due to the eyewall displacement cycle. Water vapor imagery northwest
of Earl shows an area of dry air which may inhibit further
intensification.
B. Prognostic
Our track and intensity forecast is a blend of nhc's update at 6 PM
ADT and our previous forecast.
Earl..Near the Bahamas..Is tracking west-northwestward as it
Is being steered by the ridge in the Atlantic. As it nears
The western edge of the ridge, Earl will begin to turn more northward
and then northeastward in a couple of days, in response to an
approaching trough to the west. Model guidance is tightly clustered
in the 48-72 hour timeframe, however they become divergent
thereafter. There remains a wide range of track scenerios later in
the week, ranging from a potential landfall as far west as Maine and
as far east as Newfoundland.
At this point...Probablistic computer models generally show about a
60 percent chance of at least gale-force winds (60-70 km/h) over
Land in Nova Scotia. Although the official track indicates a
Category-one hurricane landfall in Western Nova Scotia..This only
reflects the average of many scenarios and landfall locations 3 to
4 days away. The statistical guidance indicates about a 75 percent
chance of Earl entering canadian forecast waters as a hurricane and
30-40 percent chance of a land falling hurricane in Nova Scotia.
C. Public weather
Too early at this time to give detailed impacts due to uncertainty
In the current track and intensity trend. The public should
Certainly stay tuned for updated forecasts this week.
D. Marine weather
On Wednesday we will likely have some details on wave impacts from
wave models.
Predicted wind radii (NM)
Time gales storms hurricane
Ne se sw nw ne se sw nw ne se sw nw
01/00Z 175 175 90 175 120 120 60 90 80 80 30 60
01/12Z 175 175 90 175 120 120 60 90 80 80 30 60
02/00Z 210 150 100 120 120 110 55 70 70 60 30 60
02/12Z 210 150 100 120 120 110 40 60 70 50 30 60
03/00Z 210 150 100 120 120 100 30 60 70 50 10 30
03/12Z 210 150 100 120 120 100 30 60 70 50 10 30
04/00Z 210 190 100 120 120 110 30 60 70 50 10 30
04/12Z 210 210 100 120 120 120 30 60 70 50 10 30
05/00Z 210 230 100 120 120 140 30 60 35 25 5 15
05/12Z 210 240 100 120 120 140 30 60 0 0 0 0
06/00Z 210 280 100 120 120 120 30 60 0 0 0 0
End fogarty/campbell/khan
ATL: EARL - Advisories
Moderator: S2k Moderators
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139051
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ATL: EARL - Advisories
000
WTNT32 KNHC 010243
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
1100 PM AST TUE AUG 31 2010
...POWERFUL HURRICANE EARL CONTINUES MOVING NORTHWESTWARD...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.0N 69.9W
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM NE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 910 MI...1460 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH...215 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA
BORDER...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
* CAPE FEAR TO SURF CITY
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.
INTERESTS FROM VIRGINIA NORTHWARD TO NEW ENGLAND SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF EARL.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 23.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.9 WEST. EARL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST THEREAFTER. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF
THE HURRICANE WILL BE PASSING WELL EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE TURKS
AND CAICOS ISLANDS TONIGHT AND NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS TOMORROW.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. EARL IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
EARL IS A LARGE HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 90 MILES...150 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM. NOAA BUOY
41046...LOCATED ABOUT 85 MILES NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER OF
EARL...RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 57 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 67
MPH AND A PRESSURE OF 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 940 MB...27.76 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WINDS...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE PROBABLY OCCURRING IN THE
VICINITY OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY IMPROVE IN THESE ISLANDS ON WEDNESDAY.
STORM SURGE...ABOVE NORMAL TIDES...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS TONIGHT.
RAINFALL...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS AND FOR THE TURK AND CAICOS ISLANDS.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/KIMBERLAIN
000
WTNT42 KNHC 010248
TCDAT2
HURRICANE EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
1100 PM AST TUE AUG 31 2010
EARL REMAINS A WELL-ORGANIZED HURRICANE ON SATELLITE IMAGES. AN EYE
OF ABOUT 20 N MI IN DIAMETER IS EVIDENT ON THE INFRARED IMAGES...
AND THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS WELL-DEFINED OVER ALL BUT THE
SOUTHWEST PART OF THE CIRCULATION...AS CONFIRMED BY SURVELLIANCE
DATA FROM THE NOAA G-IV JET THIS EVENING. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
KEPT AT 115 KT BASED ON A DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM TAFB. THERE IS
CURRENTLY ABOUT 20 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER EARL AS DEPICTED
BY UW-CIMSS ANALYSES. THIS SHEAR SHOULD LESSEN AS AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH...JUST TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE HURRICANE...IS
PREDICTED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO SHIFT WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY
OR SO. THIS EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT SHOULD ALLOW
EARL TO MORE OR LESS MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY FOR ABOUT THE NEXT 36
HOURS. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS ONLY A LITTLE ABOVE THE
STATISTICAL/DYNAMICAL LGEM GUIDANCE AND A LITTLE BELOW THE GFDL
HURRICANE MODEL GUIDANCE. BY DAY 4...GLOBAL MODELS SHOW EARL
BECOME EMBEDDED WITHIN A BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH WELL-DEFINED THERMAL
ADVECTION SO EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SHOULD HAVE OCCURRED BY THAT
TIME.
THE TRACK HAS BEEN WOBBLING AS IS TYPICAL OF INTENSE HURRICANES BUT
THE MEAN MOTION OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS IS ABOUT 310/13. THERE HAS
BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE NHC FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. EARL IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN TO THE RIGHT AS IT MOVES AROUND THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AFTERWARDS...A VIGOROUS MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
AT 500 MB WILL APPROACH THE EAST COAST AND SHOULD CAUSE THE
HURRICANE TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. OF COURSE...THE
TIMING OF THIS TURN IS CRITICAL IN DETERMINING HOW CLOSE THE CENTER
WILL COME TO THE U.S. EAST COAST. ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE
EXACT FORECAST TRACK BECAUSE OF FORECAST UNCERTAINTY...AND ALSO
BECAUSE EARL IS A LARGE HURRICANE AND SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS CAN BE
WELL REMOVED FROM THE CENTER.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 01/0300Z 23.0N 69.9W 115 KT
12HR VT 01/1200Z 24.5N 71.6W 115 KT
24HR VT 02/0000Z 27.0N 73.5W 115 KT
36HR VT 02/1200Z 29.8N 75.0W 115 KT
48HR VT 03/0000Z 32.7N 75.2W 110 KT
72HR VT 04/0000Z 39.0N 70.5W 90 KT
96HR VT 05/0000Z 47.0N 62.0W 75 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120HR VT 06/0000Z 56.0N 58.0W 50 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/KIMBERLAIN
WTNT32 KNHC 010243
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
1100 PM AST TUE AUG 31 2010
...POWERFUL HURRICANE EARL CONTINUES MOVING NORTHWESTWARD...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.0N 69.9W
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM NE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 910 MI...1460 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH...215 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA
BORDER...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
* CAPE FEAR TO SURF CITY
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.
INTERESTS FROM VIRGINIA NORTHWARD TO NEW ENGLAND SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF EARL.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 23.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.9 WEST. EARL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST THEREAFTER. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF
THE HURRICANE WILL BE PASSING WELL EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE TURKS
AND CAICOS ISLANDS TONIGHT AND NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS TOMORROW.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. EARL IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
EARL IS A LARGE HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 90 MILES...150 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM. NOAA BUOY
41046...LOCATED ABOUT 85 MILES NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER OF
EARL...RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 57 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 67
MPH AND A PRESSURE OF 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 940 MB...27.76 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WINDS...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE PROBABLY OCCURRING IN THE
VICINITY OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY IMPROVE IN THESE ISLANDS ON WEDNESDAY.
STORM SURGE...ABOVE NORMAL TIDES...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS TONIGHT.
RAINFALL...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS AND FOR THE TURK AND CAICOS ISLANDS.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/KIMBERLAIN
000
WTNT42 KNHC 010248
TCDAT2
HURRICANE EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
1100 PM AST TUE AUG 31 2010
EARL REMAINS A WELL-ORGANIZED HURRICANE ON SATELLITE IMAGES. AN EYE
OF ABOUT 20 N MI IN DIAMETER IS EVIDENT ON THE INFRARED IMAGES...
AND THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS WELL-DEFINED OVER ALL BUT THE
SOUTHWEST PART OF THE CIRCULATION...AS CONFIRMED BY SURVELLIANCE
DATA FROM THE NOAA G-IV JET THIS EVENING. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
KEPT AT 115 KT BASED ON A DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM TAFB. THERE IS
CURRENTLY ABOUT 20 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER EARL AS DEPICTED
BY UW-CIMSS ANALYSES. THIS SHEAR SHOULD LESSEN AS AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH...JUST TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE HURRICANE...IS
PREDICTED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO SHIFT WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY
OR SO. THIS EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT SHOULD ALLOW
EARL TO MORE OR LESS MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY FOR ABOUT THE NEXT 36
HOURS. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS ONLY A LITTLE ABOVE THE
STATISTICAL/DYNAMICAL LGEM GUIDANCE AND A LITTLE BELOW THE GFDL
HURRICANE MODEL GUIDANCE. BY DAY 4...GLOBAL MODELS SHOW EARL
BECOME EMBEDDED WITHIN A BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH WELL-DEFINED THERMAL
ADVECTION SO EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SHOULD HAVE OCCURRED BY THAT
TIME.
THE TRACK HAS BEEN WOBBLING AS IS TYPICAL OF INTENSE HURRICANES BUT
THE MEAN MOTION OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS IS ABOUT 310/13. THERE HAS
BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE NHC FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. EARL IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN TO THE RIGHT AS IT MOVES AROUND THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AFTERWARDS...A VIGOROUS MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
AT 500 MB WILL APPROACH THE EAST COAST AND SHOULD CAUSE THE
HURRICANE TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. OF COURSE...THE
TIMING OF THIS TURN IS CRITICAL IN DETERMINING HOW CLOSE THE CENTER
WILL COME TO THE U.S. EAST COAST. ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE
EXACT FORECAST TRACK BECAUSE OF FORECAST UNCERTAINTY...AND ALSO
BECAUSE EARL IS A LARGE HURRICANE AND SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS CAN BE
WELL REMOVED FROM THE CENTER.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 01/0300Z 23.0N 69.9W 115 KT
12HR VT 01/1200Z 24.5N 71.6W 115 KT
24HR VT 02/0000Z 27.0N 73.5W 115 KT
36HR VT 02/1200Z 29.8N 75.0W 115 KT
48HR VT 03/0000Z 32.7N 75.2W 110 KT
72HR VT 04/0000Z 39.0N 70.5W 90 KT
96HR VT 05/0000Z 47.0N 62.0W 75 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120HR VT 06/0000Z 56.0N 58.0W 50 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/KIMBERLAIN
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
-
brunota2003
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 9476
- Age: 33
- Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2005 9:56 pm
- Location: Stanton, KY...formerly Havelock, NC
- Contact:
HURRICANE EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 27A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
200 AM AST WED SEP 01 2010
...POWERFUL HURRICANE EARL BEGINNING TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS...
SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.5N 70.7W
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM NNE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 860 MI...1385 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH...215 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...942 MB...27.82 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA
BORDER...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
* CAPE FEAR TO SURF CITY
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.
INTERESTS FROM VIRGINIA NORTHWARD TO NEW ENGLAND SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF EARL.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 23.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.7 WEST. EARL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST THEREAFTER. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF
THE HURRICANE WILL BE PASSING WELL EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE TURKS
AND CAICOS ISLANDS TONIGHT AND NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS TOMORROW.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. EARL IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
EARL IS A LARGE HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 90 MILES...150 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM. NOAA BUOY 41046
RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 72 MPH...115 KM/HR...WITH
GUSTS TO 85 MPH...137 KM/HR.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 942 MB...27.82 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WINDS...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE PROBABLY OCCURRING IN THE
VICINITY OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY IMPROVE IN THESE ISLANDS TODAY.
STORM SURGE...ABOVE NORMAL TIDES...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS THIS MORNING.
RAINFALL...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS AND FOR THE TURK AND CAICOS ISLANDS.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
200 AM AST WED SEP 01 2010
...POWERFUL HURRICANE EARL BEGINNING TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS...
SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.5N 70.7W
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM NNE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 860 MI...1385 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH...215 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...942 MB...27.82 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA
BORDER...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
* CAPE FEAR TO SURF CITY
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.
INTERESTS FROM VIRGINIA NORTHWARD TO NEW ENGLAND SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF EARL.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 23.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.7 WEST. EARL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST THEREAFTER. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF
THE HURRICANE WILL BE PASSING WELL EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE TURKS
AND CAICOS ISLANDS TONIGHT AND NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS TOMORROW.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. EARL IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
EARL IS A LARGE HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 90 MILES...150 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM. NOAA BUOY 41046
RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 72 MPH...115 KM/HR...WITH
GUSTS TO 85 MPH...137 KM/HR.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 942 MB...27.82 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WINDS...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE PROBABLY OCCURRING IN THE
VICINITY OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY IMPROVE IN THESE ISLANDS TODAY.
STORM SURGE...ABOVE NORMAL TIDES...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS THIS MORNING.
RAINFALL...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS AND FOR THE TURK AND CAICOS ISLANDS.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
0 likes
-
Brent
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 37090
- Age: 35
- Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
- Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
- Contact:
Re: ATL: EARL - Advisories
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
500 AM EDT WED SEP 01 2010
...EARL NOW A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE...HURRICANE WATCH EXTENDED
NORTHWARD ALONG THE VIRGINIA COAST...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.0N 71.2W
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM N OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 815 MI...1315 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...941 MB...27.79 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF VIRGINIA FROM THE
NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO PARRAMORE ISLAND.
THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR SAN SALVADOR ISLAND IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS.
THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS DISCONTINUED ALL WARNINGS AND
WATCHES FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA TO PARRAMORE ISLAND
VIRGINIA...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAN SALVADOR ISLAND IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST FROM CAPE FEAR TO SURF CITY
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE FROM VIRGINIA NORTHWARD TO NEW ENGLAND SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EARL.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 24.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.2 WEST. EARL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH-
NORTHWEST THEREAFTER. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF THE
HURRICANE WILL BE PASSING WELL EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS
TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND COULD APPROACH THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST BY
FRIDAY MORNING.
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW NEAR 125 MPH...205
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EARL IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN
STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200
MILES...325 KM. NOAA BUOY 41046 RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS
OF 78 MPH...126 KM/HR AND A GUST OF 94 MPH...151 KM/HR.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER IS 941
MB...27.79 INCHES. NOAA BUOY 41046 RECENTLY REPORTED A PRESSURE OF
943.1 MB...27.85 INCHES...AS THE EYE OF EARL PASSED OVER.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WINDS...TROPICAL STORM WINDS COULD SPREAD OVER SAN SALVADOR ISLAND
LATER TODAY.
STORM SURGE...ABOVE NORMAL TIDES IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND
THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS SHOULD SUBSIDE TODAY.
RAINFALL...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.
SURF...LARGE SWELLS FROM EARL SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT THE BAHAMAS
SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES TODAY. THESE SWELLS COULD
CAUSE DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND RIP CURRENTS.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
HURRICANE EARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
0900 UTC WED SEP 01 2010
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF VIRGINIA FROM THE
NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO PARRAMORE ISLAND.
THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR SAN SALVADOR ISLAND IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS.
THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS DISCONTINUED ALL WARNINGS AND
WATCHES FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA TO PARRAMORE ISLAND
VIRGINIA...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAN SALVADOR ISLAND IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST FROM CAPE FEAR TO SURF CITY
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE FROM VIRGINIA NORTHWARD TO NEW ENGLAND SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EARL.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.0N 71.2W AT 01/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 14 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 941 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 80NE 80SE 30SW 60NW.
50 KT.......120NE 120SE 75SW 90NW.
34 KT.......175NE 175SE 120SW 175NW.
12 FT SEAS..440NE 300SE 210SW 420NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.0N 71.2W AT 01/0900Z
AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 70.6W
FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 25.8N 72.9W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 80NE 80SE 30SW 60NW.
50 KT...120NE 120SE 75SW 90NW.
34 KT...175NE 175SE 120SW 175NW.
FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 28.5N 74.6W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 80NE 80SE 30SW 60NW.
50 KT...120NE 120SE 75SW 90NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 125SW 175NW.
FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 31.3N 75.2W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 80NE 80SE 30SW 60NW.
50 KT...120NE 120SE 75SW 90NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 125SW 175NW.
FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 34.6N 74.4W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT...120NE 120SE 75SW 90NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 140SW 175NW.
FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 42.0N 68.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT...100NE 140SE 100SW 90NW.
34 KT...175NE 200SE 175SW 150NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 50.0N 61.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 57.0N 58.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.0N 71.2W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/1500Z
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
HURRICANE EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
500 AM EDT WED SEP 01 2010
...EARL NOW A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE...HURRICANE WATCH EXTENDED
NORTHWARD ALONG THE VIRGINIA COAST...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.0N 71.2W
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM N OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 815 MI...1315 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...941 MB...27.79 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF VIRGINIA FROM THE
NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO PARRAMORE ISLAND.
THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR SAN SALVADOR ISLAND IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS.
THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS DISCONTINUED ALL WARNINGS AND
WATCHES FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA TO PARRAMORE ISLAND
VIRGINIA...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAN SALVADOR ISLAND IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST FROM CAPE FEAR TO SURF CITY
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE FROM VIRGINIA NORTHWARD TO NEW ENGLAND SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EARL.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 24.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.2 WEST. EARL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH-
NORTHWEST THEREAFTER. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF THE
HURRICANE WILL BE PASSING WELL EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS
TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND COULD APPROACH THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST BY
FRIDAY MORNING.
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW NEAR 125 MPH...205
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EARL IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN
STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200
MILES...325 KM. NOAA BUOY 41046 RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS
OF 78 MPH...126 KM/HR AND A GUST OF 94 MPH...151 KM/HR.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER IS 941
MB...27.79 INCHES. NOAA BUOY 41046 RECENTLY REPORTED A PRESSURE OF
943.1 MB...27.85 INCHES...AS THE EYE OF EARL PASSED OVER.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WINDS...TROPICAL STORM WINDS COULD SPREAD OVER SAN SALVADOR ISLAND
LATER TODAY.
STORM SURGE...ABOVE NORMAL TIDES IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND
THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS SHOULD SUBSIDE TODAY.
RAINFALL...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.
SURF...LARGE SWELLS FROM EARL SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT THE BAHAMAS
SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES TODAY. THESE SWELLS COULD
CAUSE DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND RIP CURRENTS.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
HURRICANE EARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
0900 UTC WED SEP 01 2010
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF VIRGINIA FROM THE
NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO PARRAMORE ISLAND.
THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR SAN SALVADOR ISLAND IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS.
THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS DISCONTINUED ALL WARNINGS AND
WATCHES FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA TO PARRAMORE ISLAND
VIRGINIA...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAN SALVADOR ISLAND IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST FROM CAPE FEAR TO SURF CITY
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE FROM VIRGINIA NORTHWARD TO NEW ENGLAND SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EARL.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.0N 71.2W AT 01/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 14 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 941 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 80NE 80SE 30SW 60NW.
50 KT.......120NE 120SE 75SW 90NW.
34 KT.......175NE 175SE 120SW 175NW.
12 FT SEAS..440NE 300SE 210SW 420NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.0N 71.2W AT 01/0900Z
AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 70.6W
FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 25.8N 72.9W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 80NE 80SE 30SW 60NW.
50 KT...120NE 120SE 75SW 90NW.
34 KT...175NE 175SE 120SW 175NW.
FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 28.5N 74.6W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 80NE 80SE 30SW 60NW.
50 KT...120NE 120SE 75SW 90NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 125SW 175NW.
FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 31.3N 75.2W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 80NE 80SE 30SW 60NW.
50 KT...120NE 120SE 75SW 90NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 125SW 175NW.
FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 34.6N 74.4W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT...120NE 120SE 75SW 90NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 140SW 175NW.
FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 42.0N 68.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT...100NE 140SE 100SW 90NW.
34 KT...175NE 200SE 175SW 150NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 50.0N 61.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 57.0N 58.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.0N 71.2W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/1500Z
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
0 likes
#neversummer
-
HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
HURRICANE EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 28A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
800 AM EDT WED SEP 01 2010
...LARGE HURRICANE EARL MOVING NORTHWESTWARD EAST OF THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS...
SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.5N 71.6W
ABOUT 180 MI...295 KM E OF SAN SALVADOR IN THE BAHAMAS
ABOUT 780 MI...1255 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...943 MB...27.85 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA TO PARRAMORE ISLAND
VIRGINIA...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAN SALVADOR ISLAND IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST FROM CAPE FEAR TO SURF CITY
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE FROM VIRGINIA NORTHWARD TO NEW ENGLAND SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EARL.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 24.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.6 WEST. EARL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH-
NORTHWEST THEREAFTER. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF THE
HURRICANE WILL BE PASSING WELL EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS
TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND COULD APPROACH THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST BY
FRIDAY MORNING.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. EARL IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
EARL IS A LARGE HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 90 MILES...150 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM.
LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY A NOAA HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 943 MB...27.85 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WINDS...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS MAINLY IN GUSTS COULD SPREAD OVER
SAN SALVADOR ISLAND LATER THIS MORNING.
STORM SURGE...ABOVE NORMAL TIDES IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD
SUBSIDE TODAY.
RAINFALL...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.
SURF...LARGE SWELLS FROM EARL SHOULD AFFECT THE BAHAMAS AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES TODAY. THESE SWELLS WILL
LIKELY CAUSE DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND RIP CURRENTS.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
800 AM EDT WED SEP 01 2010
...LARGE HURRICANE EARL MOVING NORTHWESTWARD EAST OF THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS...
SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.5N 71.6W
ABOUT 180 MI...295 KM E OF SAN SALVADOR IN THE BAHAMAS
ABOUT 780 MI...1255 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...943 MB...27.85 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA TO PARRAMORE ISLAND
VIRGINIA...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAN SALVADOR ISLAND IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST FROM CAPE FEAR TO SURF CITY
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE FROM VIRGINIA NORTHWARD TO NEW ENGLAND SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EARL.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 24.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.6 WEST. EARL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH-
NORTHWEST THEREAFTER. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF THE
HURRICANE WILL BE PASSING WELL EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS
TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND COULD APPROACH THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST BY
FRIDAY MORNING.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. EARL IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
EARL IS A LARGE HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 90 MILES...150 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM.
LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY A NOAA HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 943 MB...27.85 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WINDS...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS MAINLY IN GUSTS COULD SPREAD OVER
SAN SALVADOR ISLAND LATER THIS MORNING.
STORM SURGE...ABOVE NORMAL TIDES IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD
SUBSIDE TODAY.
RAINFALL...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.
SURF...LARGE SWELLS FROM EARL SHOULD AFFECT THE BAHAMAS AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES TODAY. THESE SWELLS WILL
LIKELY CAUSE DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND RIP CURRENTS.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
0 likes
WOCN31 CWHX 011200
Hurricane Earl information statement issued by the canadian
Hurricane centre of Environment Canada at 9.00 AM ADT Wednesday
01 September 2010.
...Hurricane Earl continuing on its forecast track..Expected
To impact Atlantic Canada this weekend...
The next statement will be issued by 3.00 PM ADT
1. Current position, strength, central pressure and motion
At 9.00 AM ADT... Hurricane Earl was located near latitude 24.6 N
And longitude 71.6 W... About 600 nautical miles or 1100 km
Southwest of Bermuda. Maximum sustained winds are estimated at 110
Knots... 204 km/h... And central pressure at 941 MB. Earl is moving
Northwest at 14 knots... 28 km/h.
2. Forecast position, central pressure and strength
Date time lat lon MSLP Max wind
ADT MB kts kmh
Sep 01 9.00 AM 24.6N 71.6W 943 110 204
Sep 01 9.00 PM 27.1N 73.6W 943 110 204
Sep 02 9.00 AM 29.8N 74.7W 945 110 204
Sep 02 9.00 PM 32.8N 74.8W 951 110 204
Sep 03 9.00 AM 35.8N 73.2W 961 100 185
Sep 03 9.00 PM 39.1N 70.2W 968 90 167
Sep 04 9.00 AM 43.6N 66.5W 974 75 139 transitioning
Sep 04 9.00 PM 48.0N 63.0W 984 65 120 transitioning
Sep 05 9.00 AM 51.8N 60.3W 982 60 111 post-tropical
Sep 05 9.00 PM 55.7N 58.3W 980 50 93 post-tropical
Sep 06 9.00 AM 60.2N 56.8W 980 40 74 post-tropical
3. Public weather impacts and warnings summary
It is still early to speak of details at this time since Earl is
2 to 3 days away from Atlantic Canada landfall. Official watches and
warnings will likely be necessary beginning late Thursday for Nova
Scotia.
The public should certainly pay close attention regarding weekend
plans that may be sensitive to high wind and heavy rain conditions.
It is emphasized that updated forecasts should be consulted for the
latest forecast decisions and rationale.
4. Marine weather impacts and warnings summary
Currently no warnings are in effect. As Earl approaches the
Maritimes..Warnings will likely be issued beginning early Thursday
for maritime waters. Ocean swell from Earl will reach Nova Scotia on
Thursday as well.
5. Technical discussion for meteorologists
A. Analysis
After the satellite imagery came out of the eclipse..It has become
evident that the dry air previously noted to the northwest of Earl
has wrapped itself around the west and south quadrants of the storm
as seen on the water vapour channel. The eye of Earl passed over bouy
41046 near 08Z. Just prior to the arrival of the eye the bouy
Reported a wind gust to 83 knots with seas of 14.8 metres..And with
the passage of the eye a pressure of 943 MB.
B. Prognostic
Earl continues to round the subtropical ridge entrenched over the
Atlantic. This means Earl will continue its northwestward track in
the near term before heading more northward thereafter. The
Approach of a trough from the west will cause Earl to accelerate as
it moves toward Atlantic Canada.
Slight adjustments have been made to the previous forecast track..
With a slight nudge to the west. Numerical model guidance shows a
majority of the model tracks becoming somewhat more divergent over
canadian territory. This is no surprise and this sort of
Uncertainty in predicting an exact track has been the empahsis of
The CHC since Earl was projected to move toward Atlantic Canada.
Again it is emphasized that there is a wide range of track scenarios
Over the weekend..From a potential landfall as far west as Maine and
as far east as Southwest Newfoundland.
The official track posted on our websites..Although specific in
Terms of a line with storm positions at specific times and a
Landfalling category-one hurricane..Simply represents the average of
many factors.
Probabilistic computer models generally show about a 75 percent
chance of at least gale-force winds (60 to 70 km/h) over land in
Nova Scotia. Our statistical guidance indicates about an 85 percent
Chance of Earl entering canadian forecast waters as a hurricane..And
40 to 50 percent chance of a land falling hurricane in Nova Scotia.
C. Public weather
See above.
D. Marine weather
Seas from Earl entering our waters Thursday morning are indicated
In the numerical wave guidance.
Predicted wind radii (NM)
Time gales storms hurricane
Ne se sw nw ne se sw nw ne se sw nw
01/12Z 175 175 95 175 120 120 60 90 80 80 30 60
02/00Z 175 175 110 175 120 120 60 90 80 80 30 60
02/12Z 180 180 125 175 120 120 60 90 75 65 20 45
03/00Z 180 180 135 175 120 120 60 90 70 50 10 30
03/12Z 190 190 140 175 120 120 60 90 70 50 10 30
04/00Z 205 205 130 160 120 120 55 80 50 40 10 30
04/12Z 210 215 110 135 120 125 35 65 20 25 10 20
05/00Z 210 225 110 150 125 125 30 60 0 10 0 0
05/12Z 210 245 130 210 120 125 30 60 0 0 0 0
06/00Z 210 280 145 270 60 60 15 30 0 0 0 0
06/12Z 210 320 155 330 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
End fogarty/borgel
Hurricane Earl information statement issued by the canadian
Hurricane centre of Environment Canada at 9.00 AM ADT Wednesday
01 September 2010.
...Hurricane Earl continuing on its forecast track..Expected
To impact Atlantic Canada this weekend...
The next statement will be issued by 3.00 PM ADT
1. Current position, strength, central pressure and motion
At 9.00 AM ADT... Hurricane Earl was located near latitude 24.6 N
And longitude 71.6 W... About 600 nautical miles or 1100 km
Southwest of Bermuda. Maximum sustained winds are estimated at 110
Knots... 204 km/h... And central pressure at 941 MB. Earl is moving
Northwest at 14 knots... 28 km/h.
2. Forecast position, central pressure and strength
Date time lat lon MSLP Max wind
ADT MB kts kmh
Sep 01 9.00 AM 24.6N 71.6W 943 110 204
Sep 01 9.00 PM 27.1N 73.6W 943 110 204
Sep 02 9.00 AM 29.8N 74.7W 945 110 204
Sep 02 9.00 PM 32.8N 74.8W 951 110 204
Sep 03 9.00 AM 35.8N 73.2W 961 100 185
Sep 03 9.00 PM 39.1N 70.2W 968 90 167
Sep 04 9.00 AM 43.6N 66.5W 974 75 139 transitioning
Sep 04 9.00 PM 48.0N 63.0W 984 65 120 transitioning
Sep 05 9.00 AM 51.8N 60.3W 982 60 111 post-tropical
Sep 05 9.00 PM 55.7N 58.3W 980 50 93 post-tropical
Sep 06 9.00 AM 60.2N 56.8W 980 40 74 post-tropical
3. Public weather impacts and warnings summary
It is still early to speak of details at this time since Earl is
2 to 3 days away from Atlantic Canada landfall. Official watches and
warnings will likely be necessary beginning late Thursday for Nova
Scotia.
The public should certainly pay close attention regarding weekend
plans that may be sensitive to high wind and heavy rain conditions.
It is emphasized that updated forecasts should be consulted for the
latest forecast decisions and rationale.
4. Marine weather impacts and warnings summary
Currently no warnings are in effect. As Earl approaches the
Maritimes..Warnings will likely be issued beginning early Thursday
for maritime waters. Ocean swell from Earl will reach Nova Scotia on
Thursday as well.
5. Technical discussion for meteorologists
A. Analysis
After the satellite imagery came out of the eclipse..It has become
evident that the dry air previously noted to the northwest of Earl
has wrapped itself around the west and south quadrants of the storm
as seen on the water vapour channel. The eye of Earl passed over bouy
41046 near 08Z. Just prior to the arrival of the eye the bouy
Reported a wind gust to 83 knots with seas of 14.8 metres..And with
the passage of the eye a pressure of 943 MB.
B. Prognostic
Earl continues to round the subtropical ridge entrenched over the
Atlantic. This means Earl will continue its northwestward track in
the near term before heading more northward thereafter. The
Approach of a trough from the west will cause Earl to accelerate as
it moves toward Atlantic Canada.
Slight adjustments have been made to the previous forecast track..
With a slight nudge to the west. Numerical model guidance shows a
majority of the model tracks becoming somewhat more divergent over
canadian territory. This is no surprise and this sort of
Uncertainty in predicting an exact track has been the empahsis of
The CHC since Earl was projected to move toward Atlantic Canada.
Again it is emphasized that there is a wide range of track scenarios
Over the weekend..From a potential landfall as far west as Maine and
as far east as Southwest Newfoundland.
The official track posted on our websites..Although specific in
Terms of a line with storm positions at specific times and a
Landfalling category-one hurricane..Simply represents the average of
many factors.
Probabilistic computer models generally show about a 75 percent
chance of at least gale-force winds (60 to 70 km/h) over land in
Nova Scotia. Our statistical guidance indicates about an 85 percent
Chance of Earl entering canadian forecast waters as a hurricane..And
40 to 50 percent chance of a land falling hurricane in Nova Scotia.
C. Public weather
See above.
D. Marine weather
Seas from Earl entering our waters Thursday morning are indicated
In the numerical wave guidance.
Predicted wind radii (NM)
Time gales storms hurricane
Ne se sw nw ne se sw nw ne se sw nw
01/12Z 175 175 95 175 120 120 60 90 80 80 30 60
02/00Z 175 175 110 175 120 120 60 90 80 80 30 60
02/12Z 180 180 125 175 120 120 60 90 75 65 20 45
03/00Z 180 180 135 175 120 120 60 90 70 50 10 30
03/12Z 190 190 140 175 120 120 60 90 70 50 10 30
04/00Z 205 205 130 160 120 120 55 80 50 40 10 30
04/12Z 210 215 110 135 120 125 35 65 20 25 10 20
05/00Z 210 225 110 150 125 125 30 60 0 10 0 0
05/12Z 210 245 130 210 120 125 30 60 0 0 0 0
06/00Z 210 280 145 270 60 60 15 30 0 0 0 0
06/12Z 210 320 155 330 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
End fogarty/borgel
0 likes
000
WTNT32 KNHC 011744
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 29A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
200 PM EDT WED SEP 01 2010
...LARGE HURRICANE EARL CONTINUES RELENTLESSLY TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST...POSES A THREAT TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...
SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.7N 72.7W
ABOUT 275 MI...440 KM E OF ABACO ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS
ABOUT 680 MI...1095 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...941 MB...27.79 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR SAN SALVADOR ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS
HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTH
CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE
SOUNDS.
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE HENLOPEN
DELAWARE.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FROM CAPE FEAR TO WEST OF BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA.
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE FROM NEW JERSEY TO NEW ENGLAND SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF EARL.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 25.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.7 WEST. EARL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH ON
THURSDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE WELL EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS TODAY AND
TONIGHT...AND WILL APPROACH THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST BY LATE
THURSDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. EARL IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. HOWEVER...PRELIMINARY DATA FROM
AN AIR FORCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE HURRICANE IS BEGINNING TO
STRENGTHEN AND EARL COULD AGAIN BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE
LATER TODAY.
EARL IS A LARGE HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 90 MILES...150 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM.
LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 941 MB...27.79 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WINDS...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OCCURRING BY LATE THURSDAY.
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER
LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
RAINFALL...ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE BAHAMAS AND
EXTREME EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA INCLUDING THE OUTER BANKS.
SURF...LARGE SWELLS FROM EARL SHOULD AFFECT THE BAHAMAS AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES TODAY. THESE SWELLS WILL
LIKELY CAUSE DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND RIP CURRENTS.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
WTNT32 KNHC 011744
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 29A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
200 PM EDT WED SEP 01 2010
...LARGE HURRICANE EARL CONTINUES RELENTLESSLY TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST...POSES A THREAT TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...
SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.7N 72.7W
ABOUT 275 MI...440 KM E OF ABACO ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS
ABOUT 680 MI...1095 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...941 MB...27.79 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR SAN SALVADOR ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS
HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTH
CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE
SOUNDS.
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE HENLOPEN
DELAWARE.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FROM CAPE FEAR TO WEST OF BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA.
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE FROM NEW JERSEY TO NEW ENGLAND SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF EARL.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 25.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.7 WEST. EARL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH ON
THURSDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE WELL EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS TODAY AND
TONIGHT...AND WILL APPROACH THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST BY LATE
THURSDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. EARL IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. HOWEVER...PRELIMINARY DATA FROM
AN AIR FORCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE HURRICANE IS BEGINNING TO
STRENGTHEN AND EARL COULD AGAIN BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE
LATER TODAY.
EARL IS A LARGE HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 90 MILES...150 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM.
LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 941 MB...27.79 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WINDS...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OCCURRING BY LATE THURSDAY.
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER
LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
RAINFALL...ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE BAHAMAS AND
EXTREME EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA INCLUDING THE OUTER BANKS.
SURF...LARGE SWELLS FROM EARL SHOULD AFFECT THE BAHAMAS AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES TODAY. THESE SWELLS WILL
LIKELY CAUSE DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND RIP CURRENTS.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
0 likes
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139051
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ATL: EARL - Advisories
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
500 PM EDT WED SEP 01 2010
...DANGEROUS AND LARGE HURRICANE EARL POSES A THREAT TO THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST...WATCHES AND WARNINGS EXTENDED NORTHWARD
THROUGH MASSACHUSETTS...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.3N 73.3W
ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM E OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 630 MI...1010 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH...215 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...941 MB...27.79 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE NORTH
CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY...INCLUDING
DELAWARE BAY SOUTH OF SLAUGHTER BEACH AND THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH
OF NEW POINT COMFORT.
A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM WOODS HOLE TO SAGAMORE BEACH
MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY TO
WOODS HOLE MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING BLOCK ISLAND AND LONG ISLAND
SOUND.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH OF SAGAMORE BEACH
TO THE MOUTH OF THE MERRIMACK RIVER MASSACHUSETTS.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTH
CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE
SOUNDS.
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE HENLOPEN
DELAWARE.
* WOODS HOLE TO SAGAMORE BEACH MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING MARTHAS
VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FROM CAPE FEAR TO WEST OF BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA.
* FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO SANDY HOOK NEW
JERSEY...INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY SOUTH OF SLAUGHTER BEACH AND THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY TO WOODS HOLE MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING
BLOCK ISLAND AND LONG ISLAND SOUND.
* NORTH OF SAGAMORE BEACH TO THE MOUTH OF THE MERRIMACK RIVER
MASSACHUSETTS.
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
INTERESTS IN NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN CANADA SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EARL.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE LARGE EYE OF HURRICANE EARL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.3 WEST. EARL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR. THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH ON
THURSDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL
APPROACH THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST BY LATE THURSDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 135 MPH...215
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EARL IS AGAIN A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE
ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN
INTENSITY ARE LIKELY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...BUT A GRADUAL WEAKENING
TREND IS ANTICIPATED THEREAFTER.
EARL IS STILL A LARGE HURRICANE AND GROWING. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM.
LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE A FEW HOURS AGO WAS 941 MB...27.79 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WINDS...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OCCURRING BY LATE THURSDAY. TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS WILL LIKELY REACH THE COAST FROM VIRGINIA NORTHWARD TO
NEW JERSEY BY EARLY FRIDAY.
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS
MUCH AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA. ELSEWHERE...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS
1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
AREA. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
RAINFALL...ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA INCLUDING THE OUTER BANKS.
SURF...LARGE SWELLS FROM EARL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE BAHAMAS
AND THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES THROUGH FRIDAY. THESE
SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND RIP
CURRENTS.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
012051
TCDAT2
HURRICANE EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 30
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
500 PM EDT WED SEP 01 2010
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE EYE HAS BECOME VERY
DISTINCT...WITH OJECTIVE T-NUMBERS OSCILLATING AROUND 6.0 FOR THE
PAST FEW HOURS. AN AIR FORCE PLANE MEASURED FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF
138 KNOTS AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 941 MB IN THE LAST FIX.
HOWEVER...SFMR MEASUREMENTS WERE A LITTLE LOWER. A COMPROMISE OF
THESE DATA SUPPORTS AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 115 KNOTS.
HOWEVER...EARL COULD FLUCTUATE IN INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT 12 TO
24 HOURS BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT REACHES
COOLER WATERS AND MOVES INTO HIGHER SHEAR BEYOND 36 HOURS. BY DAY 5
THE HURRICANE SHOULD HAVE BEEN ABSORBED BY A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE WELL NORTH OF CANADA.
SATELLITE AND RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FIXES INDICATE THAT EARL
HAS BEEN MOVING RELENTLESSLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES
AT 15 KNOTS. THE HURRICANE IS ABOUT TO REACH THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN MORE TO THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST AND NORTH LATER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. IN ABOUT 36
HOURS OR SO...THE HURRICANE WILL ENCOUNTER THE BASE OF THE
MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND SHOULD BEGIN TO RECURVE OR TURN TO THE
NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASING FORWARD SPEED. THIS IS THE SOLUTION
CONSISTENTLY PROVIDED BY TRACK MODELS...WHICH HAVE EARL PASSING TO
THE EAST BUT NOT FAR FROM THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA ON
THURSDAY NIGHT. ONLY A SMALL WESTWARD DEVIATION OF THE TRACK TO THE
WEST WOULD BRING THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE TO THE COAST.
GIVEN THE FORECAST TRACK...THE LARGE SIZE OF THE WIND FIELD...AND
THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED WATCHES AND WATCHES HAVE
BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 01/2100Z 26.3N 73.3W 115 KT
12HR VT 02/0600Z 28.4N 74.7W 115 KT
24HR VT 02/1800Z 31.7N 75.4W 110 KT
36HR VT 03/0600Z 35.1N 74.7W 100 KT
48HR VT 03/1800Z 38.5N 72.2W 90 KT
72HR VT 04/1800Z 46.5N 63.5W 60 KT
96HR VT 05/1800Z 58.0N 57.0W 40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120HR VT 06/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
HURRICANE EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
500 PM EDT WED SEP 01 2010
...DANGEROUS AND LARGE HURRICANE EARL POSES A THREAT TO THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST...WATCHES AND WARNINGS EXTENDED NORTHWARD
THROUGH MASSACHUSETTS...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.3N 73.3W
ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM E OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 630 MI...1010 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH...215 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...941 MB...27.79 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE NORTH
CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY...INCLUDING
DELAWARE BAY SOUTH OF SLAUGHTER BEACH AND THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH
OF NEW POINT COMFORT.
A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM WOODS HOLE TO SAGAMORE BEACH
MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY TO
WOODS HOLE MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING BLOCK ISLAND AND LONG ISLAND
SOUND.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH OF SAGAMORE BEACH
TO THE MOUTH OF THE MERRIMACK RIVER MASSACHUSETTS.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTH
CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE
SOUNDS.
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE HENLOPEN
DELAWARE.
* WOODS HOLE TO SAGAMORE BEACH MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING MARTHAS
VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FROM CAPE FEAR TO WEST OF BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA.
* FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO SANDY HOOK NEW
JERSEY...INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY SOUTH OF SLAUGHTER BEACH AND THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY TO WOODS HOLE MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING
BLOCK ISLAND AND LONG ISLAND SOUND.
* NORTH OF SAGAMORE BEACH TO THE MOUTH OF THE MERRIMACK RIVER
MASSACHUSETTS.
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
INTERESTS IN NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN CANADA SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EARL.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE LARGE EYE OF HURRICANE EARL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.3 WEST. EARL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR. THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH ON
THURSDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL
APPROACH THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST BY LATE THURSDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 135 MPH...215
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EARL IS AGAIN A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE
ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN
INTENSITY ARE LIKELY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...BUT A GRADUAL WEAKENING
TREND IS ANTICIPATED THEREAFTER.
EARL IS STILL A LARGE HURRICANE AND GROWING. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM.
LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE A FEW HOURS AGO WAS 941 MB...27.79 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WINDS...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OCCURRING BY LATE THURSDAY. TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS WILL LIKELY REACH THE COAST FROM VIRGINIA NORTHWARD TO
NEW JERSEY BY EARLY FRIDAY.
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS
MUCH AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA. ELSEWHERE...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS
1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
AREA. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
RAINFALL...ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA INCLUDING THE OUTER BANKS.
SURF...LARGE SWELLS FROM EARL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE BAHAMAS
AND THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES THROUGH FRIDAY. THESE
SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND RIP
CURRENTS.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
012051
TCDAT2
HURRICANE EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 30
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
500 PM EDT WED SEP 01 2010
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE EYE HAS BECOME VERY
DISTINCT...WITH OJECTIVE T-NUMBERS OSCILLATING AROUND 6.0 FOR THE
PAST FEW HOURS. AN AIR FORCE PLANE MEASURED FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF
138 KNOTS AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 941 MB IN THE LAST FIX.
HOWEVER...SFMR MEASUREMENTS WERE A LITTLE LOWER. A COMPROMISE OF
THESE DATA SUPPORTS AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 115 KNOTS.
HOWEVER...EARL COULD FLUCTUATE IN INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT 12 TO
24 HOURS BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT REACHES
COOLER WATERS AND MOVES INTO HIGHER SHEAR BEYOND 36 HOURS. BY DAY 5
THE HURRICANE SHOULD HAVE BEEN ABSORBED BY A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE WELL NORTH OF CANADA.
SATELLITE AND RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FIXES INDICATE THAT EARL
HAS BEEN MOVING RELENTLESSLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES
AT 15 KNOTS. THE HURRICANE IS ABOUT TO REACH THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN MORE TO THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST AND NORTH LATER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. IN ABOUT 36
HOURS OR SO...THE HURRICANE WILL ENCOUNTER THE BASE OF THE
MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND SHOULD BEGIN TO RECURVE OR TURN TO THE
NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASING FORWARD SPEED. THIS IS THE SOLUTION
CONSISTENTLY PROVIDED BY TRACK MODELS...WHICH HAVE EARL PASSING TO
THE EAST BUT NOT FAR FROM THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA ON
THURSDAY NIGHT. ONLY A SMALL WESTWARD DEVIATION OF THE TRACK TO THE
WEST WOULD BRING THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE TO THE COAST.
GIVEN THE FORECAST TRACK...THE LARGE SIZE OF THE WIND FIELD...AND
THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED WATCHES AND WATCHES HAVE
BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 01/2100Z 26.3N 73.3W 115 KT
12HR VT 02/0600Z 28.4N 74.7W 115 KT
24HR VT 02/1800Z 31.7N 75.4W 110 KT
36HR VT 03/0600Z 35.1N 74.7W 100 KT
48HR VT 03/1800Z 38.5N 72.2W 90 KT
72HR VT 04/1800Z 46.5N 63.5W 60 KT
96HR VT 05/1800Z 58.0N 57.0W 40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120HR VT 06/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
WOCN31 CWHX 011800
Hurricane Earl information statement issued by the canadian
Hurricane centre of Environment Canada at 3.00 PM ADT Wednesday
01 September 2010.
..Major hurricane Earl still churning northeast of the Bahamas..
Expected to impact the Maritimes on Saturday..
The next statement will be issued by 9.00 PM ADT
1. Current position, strength, central pressure and motion
At 3.00 PM ADT... Hurricane Earl was located near latitude 25.7 N
And longitude 72.7 W... About 680 nautical miles or 1095 km
South of Cape Hatteras. Maximum sustained winds are estimated
At 110 knots... 204 km/h... And central pressure at 941 MB. Earl is
Moving north northwest at 15 knots... 28 km/h.
2. Forecast position, central pressure and strength
Date time lat lon MSLP Max wind
ADT MB kts kmh
Sep 01 3.00 PM 25.7N 72.7W 941 110 204
Sep 02 3.00 AM 28.5N 74.2W 944 110 204
Sep 02 3.00 PM 31.4N 75.3W 948 110 204
Sep 03 3.00 AM 34.4N 74.5W 956 105 194
Sep 03 3.00 PM 37.6N 71.9W 965 95 176
Sep 04 3.00 AM 41.4N 68.1W 971 85 157
Sep 04 3.00 PM 47.0N 63.9W 980 65 120 transitioning
Sep 05 3.00 AM 51.0N 61.4W 982 60 111 transitioning
Sep 05 3.00 PM 56.5N 58.7W 981 50 93 post-tropical
Sep 06 3.00 AM 60.7N 57.5W 981 45 83 post-tropical
Sep 06 3.00 PM 64.8N 57.4W 983 35 65 post-tropical
3. Public weather impacts and warnings summary
It is still early to speak of details at this time since Earl is
still over 2 days away from Atlantic Canada landfall. Official
watches and warnings will likely be necessary beginning late
Thursday for Nova Scotia.
The public should certainly pay close attention regarding weekend
plans that may be sensitive to high wind and heavy rain conditions.
It is emphasized that updated forecasts should be consulted for the
latest forecast decisions and rationale.
4. Marine weather impacts and warnings summary
Currently no warnings are in effect. As Earl approaches the
Maritimes..Warnings will likely be issued beginning early Thursday
for maritime waters. Ocean swell from Earl will reach Nova Scotia on
Thursday as well.
5. Technical discussion for meteorologists
A. Analysis
Latest satellite imagery shows Earl is still well defined with
Good outflow in most quadrants and a well defined eye in both the
visible and ir imagery. The dry air to the northwest of Earl as seen
on the water vapour channel has wrapped itself around the west and
South quadrants of the storm.. But has had little apparent effect on
its intensity so far. Earlier this morning the eye of Earl passed
Over bouy 41046.. Which reported a wind gust to 83 knots with seas
Of 14.8 metres..And recorded a pressure of 943 MB.
B. Prognostic
Earl continues to round the subtropical ridge entrenched over the
Atlantic. This means Earl will continue its northwestward track in
the near term before heading more northward thereafter. The
Approach of a trough from the west will cause Earl to accelerate as
it moves toward Atlantic Canada.
No significant changes to the previous forecast track.. Numerical
model guidance shows a majority of the model tracks in better
Agreement over canadian territory. However...It is emphasized
That there is still a wide range of track scenarios..From a
Potential landfall as far west as Maine and as far east as Cape
Breton Island.
The official track posted on our websites..Although specific in
Terms of a line with storm positions at specific times and a
Landfalling category-one hurricane..Simply represents the average of
many factors.
Water temperatures south of Nova Scotia are above normal by 2 to 4
degrees and have been persistently warm during the latter part of
August. This factor will play into our forecast of intensity as the
storm moves over those waters. Also Earl will be moving into a
pre-existing tropical airmass as is being experienced over Eastern
Canada recently. That could permit Earl to retain more tropical
characteristics as it enters our region.
Probabilistic computer models generally show about a 80 percent
chance of at least gale-force winds (60 to 70 km/h) over land in
Nova Scotia. Our statistical guidance indicates about an 85 percent
Chance of Earl entering canadian forecast waters as a hurricane..And
40 to 50 percent chance of a land falling hurricane in Nova Scotia.
Landfall time could be as early as overnight Friday into Saturday
Morning..To sometime Saturday afternoon.
C. Public weather
See above.
D. Marine weather
Seas from Earl entering our waters Thursday morning are indicated
In the numerical wave guidance.
Predicted wind radii (NM)
Time gales storms hurricane
Ne se sw nw ne se sw nw ne se sw nw
01/18Z 175 175 100 175 120 120 60 90 80 80 30 60
02/06Z 175 175 115 175 120 120 60 90 75 70 25 50
02/18Z 180 180 130 175 120 120 60 90 70 55 15 35
03/06Z 185 185 135 175 120 120 60 90 70 50 10 30
03/18Z 195 195 135 165 120 120 55 85 60 45 10 30
04/06Z 205 210 120 145 120 120 45 70 35 30 10 25
04/18Z 210 220 110 140 120 125 30 60 10 20 10 0
05/06Z 210 235 120 180 120 125 30 60 0 0 0 0
05/18Z 210 260 135 240 90 90 20 45 0 0 0 0
06/06Z 210 300 150 300 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
06/18Z 210 340 160 360 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
End fogarty/borgel
Hurricane Earl information statement issued by the canadian
Hurricane centre of Environment Canada at 3.00 PM ADT Wednesday
01 September 2010.
..Major hurricane Earl still churning northeast of the Bahamas..
Expected to impact the Maritimes on Saturday..
The next statement will be issued by 9.00 PM ADT
1. Current position, strength, central pressure and motion
At 3.00 PM ADT... Hurricane Earl was located near latitude 25.7 N
And longitude 72.7 W... About 680 nautical miles or 1095 km
South of Cape Hatteras. Maximum sustained winds are estimated
At 110 knots... 204 km/h... And central pressure at 941 MB. Earl is
Moving north northwest at 15 knots... 28 km/h.
2. Forecast position, central pressure and strength
Date time lat lon MSLP Max wind
ADT MB kts kmh
Sep 01 3.00 PM 25.7N 72.7W 941 110 204
Sep 02 3.00 AM 28.5N 74.2W 944 110 204
Sep 02 3.00 PM 31.4N 75.3W 948 110 204
Sep 03 3.00 AM 34.4N 74.5W 956 105 194
Sep 03 3.00 PM 37.6N 71.9W 965 95 176
Sep 04 3.00 AM 41.4N 68.1W 971 85 157
Sep 04 3.00 PM 47.0N 63.9W 980 65 120 transitioning
Sep 05 3.00 AM 51.0N 61.4W 982 60 111 transitioning
Sep 05 3.00 PM 56.5N 58.7W 981 50 93 post-tropical
Sep 06 3.00 AM 60.7N 57.5W 981 45 83 post-tropical
Sep 06 3.00 PM 64.8N 57.4W 983 35 65 post-tropical
3. Public weather impacts and warnings summary
It is still early to speak of details at this time since Earl is
still over 2 days away from Atlantic Canada landfall. Official
watches and warnings will likely be necessary beginning late
Thursday for Nova Scotia.
The public should certainly pay close attention regarding weekend
plans that may be sensitive to high wind and heavy rain conditions.
It is emphasized that updated forecasts should be consulted for the
latest forecast decisions and rationale.
4. Marine weather impacts and warnings summary
Currently no warnings are in effect. As Earl approaches the
Maritimes..Warnings will likely be issued beginning early Thursday
for maritime waters. Ocean swell from Earl will reach Nova Scotia on
Thursday as well.
5. Technical discussion for meteorologists
A. Analysis
Latest satellite imagery shows Earl is still well defined with
Good outflow in most quadrants and a well defined eye in both the
visible and ir imagery. The dry air to the northwest of Earl as seen
on the water vapour channel has wrapped itself around the west and
South quadrants of the storm.. But has had little apparent effect on
its intensity so far. Earlier this morning the eye of Earl passed
Over bouy 41046.. Which reported a wind gust to 83 knots with seas
Of 14.8 metres..And recorded a pressure of 943 MB.
B. Prognostic
Earl continues to round the subtropical ridge entrenched over the
Atlantic. This means Earl will continue its northwestward track in
the near term before heading more northward thereafter. The
Approach of a trough from the west will cause Earl to accelerate as
it moves toward Atlantic Canada.
No significant changes to the previous forecast track.. Numerical
model guidance shows a majority of the model tracks in better
Agreement over canadian territory. However...It is emphasized
That there is still a wide range of track scenarios..From a
Potential landfall as far west as Maine and as far east as Cape
Breton Island.
The official track posted on our websites..Although specific in
Terms of a line with storm positions at specific times and a
Landfalling category-one hurricane..Simply represents the average of
many factors.
Water temperatures south of Nova Scotia are above normal by 2 to 4
degrees and have been persistently warm during the latter part of
August. This factor will play into our forecast of intensity as the
storm moves over those waters. Also Earl will be moving into a
pre-existing tropical airmass as is being experienced over Eastern
Canada recently. That could permit Earl to retain more tropical
characteristics as it enters our region.
Probabilistic computer models generally show about a 80 percent
chance of at least gale-force winds (60 to 70 km/h) over land in
Nova Scotia. Our statistical guidance indicates about an 85 percent
Chance of Earl entering canadian forecast waters as a hurricane..And
40 to 50 percent chance of a land falling hurricane in Nova Scotia.
Landfall time could be as early as overnight Friday into Saturday
Morning..To sometime Saturday afternoon.
C. Public weather
See above.
D. Marine weather
Seas from Earl entering our waters Thursday morning are indicated
In the numerical wave guidance.
Predicted wind radii (NM)
Time gales storms hurricane
Ne se sw nw ne se sw nw ne se sw nw
01/18Z 175 175 100 175 120 120 60 90 80 80 30 60
02/06Z 175 175 115 175 120 120 60 90 75 70 25 50
02/18Z 180 180 130 175 120 120 60 90 70 55 15 35
03/06Z 185 185 135 175 120 120 60 90 70 50 10 30
03/18Z 195 195 135 165 120 120 55 85 60 45 10 30
04/06Z 205 210 120 145 120 120 45 70 35 30 10 25
04/18Z 210 220 110 140 120 125 30 60 10 20 10 0
05/06Z 210 235 120 180 120 125 30 60 0 0 0 0
05/18Z 210 260 135 240 90 90 20 45 0 0 0 0
06/06Z 210 300 150 300 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
06/18Z 210 340 160 360 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
End fogarty/borgel
0 likes
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139051
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ATL: EARL - Advisories
WTNT32 KNHC 012347
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 30A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
800 PM EDT WED SEP 01 2010
...LARGE AND DANGEROUS HURRICANE EARL THREATENING THE U.S.
MID-ATLANTIC COAST...
SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.2N 73.5W
ABOUT 565 MI...910 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH...215 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...941 MB...27.79 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTH
CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE
SOUNDS.
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE HENLOPEN
DELAWARE.
* WOODS HOLE TO SAGAMORE BEACH MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING MARTHAS
VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAPE FEAR TO WEST OF BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA.
* NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO SANDY HOOK NEW
JERSEY...INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY SOUTH OF SLAUGHTER BEACH AND THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY TO WOODS HOLE MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING
BLOCK ISLAND AND LONG ISLAND SOUND.
* NORTH OF SAGAMORE BEACH TO THE MOUTH OF THE MERRIMACK RIVER
MASSACHUSETTS.
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
INTERESTS IN NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN CANADA SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EARL.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 27.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.5 WEST. EARL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR. THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH A TURN TO THE NORTH ON THURSDAY.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL APPROACH THE
NORTH CAROLINA COAST BY LATE THURSDAY...AND MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE
OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY NIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. EARL IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...BUT A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND IS ANTICIPATED
THEREAFTER.
EARL IS A LARGE HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 90 MILES...150 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 941 MB...27.79 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WINDS...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OCCURRING BY LATE THURSDAY. TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS WILL LIKELY REACH THE COAST FROM VIRGINIA NORTHWARD TO
NEW JERSEY BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY.
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS
MUCH AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA AND THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY. ELSEWHERE WITHIN THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING AREA...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH
AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
RAINFALL...ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA INCLUDING THE OUTER BANKS.
SURF...LARGE SWELLS FROM EARL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE BAHAMAS
AND THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES THROUGH FRIDAY. THESE
SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND RIP
CURRENTS.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 30A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
800 PM EDT WED SEP 01 2010
...LARGE AND DANGEROUS HURRICANE EARL THREATENING THE U.S.
MID-ATLANTIC COAST...
SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.2N 73.5W
ABOUT 565 MI...910 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH...215 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...941 MB...27.79 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTH
CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE
SOUNDS.
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE HENLOPEN
DELAWARE.
* WOODS HOLE TO SAGAMORE BEACH MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING MARTHAS
VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAPE FEAR TO WEST OF BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA.
* NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO SANDY HOOK NEW
JERSEY...INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY SOUTH OF SLAUGHTER BEACH AND THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY TO WOODS HOLE MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING
BLOCK ISLAND AND LONG ISLAND SOUND.
* NORTH OF SAGAMORE BEACH TO THE MOUTH OF THE MERRIMACK RIVER
MASSACHUSETTS.
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
INTERESTS IN NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN CANADA SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EARL.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 27.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.5 WEST. EARL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR. THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH A TURN TO THE NORTH ON THURSDAY.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL APPROACH THE
NORTH CAROLINA COAST BY LATE THURSDAY...AND MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE
OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY NIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. EARL IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...BUT A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND IS ANTICIPATED
THEREAFTER.
EARL IS A LARGE HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 90 MILES...150 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 941 MB...27.79 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WINDS...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OCCURRING BY LATE THURSDAY. TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS WILL LIKELY REACH THE COAST FROM VIRGINIA NORTHWARD TO
NEW JERSEY BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY.
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS
MUCH AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA AND THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY. ELSEWHERE WITHIN THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING AREA...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH
AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
RAINFALL...ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA INCLUDING THE OUTER BANKS.
SURF...LARGE SWELLS FROM EARL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE BAHAMAS
AND THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES THROUGH FRIDAY. THESE
SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND RIP
CURRENTS.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139051
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ATL: EARL - Advisories
ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 31
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
1100 PM EDT WED SEP 01 2010
...EARL A LITTLE STRONGER...THREATENING THE U.S. MID-ATLANTIC
COAST...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.8N 73.8W
ABOUT 520 MI...840 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...932 MB...27.52 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTH
CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE
SOUNDS.
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE HENLOPEN
DELAWARE.
* WOODS HOLE TO SAGAMORE BEACH MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING MARTHAS
VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAPE FEAR TO WEST OF BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA.
* NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO SANDY HOOK NEW
JERSEY...INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY SOUTH OF SLAUGHTER BEACH AND THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY TO WOODS HOLE MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING
BLOCK ISLAND AND LONG ISLAND SOUND.
* NORTH OF SAGAMORE BEACH TO THE MOUTH OF THE MERRIMACK RIVER
MASSACHUSETTS.
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
INTERESTS IN NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN CANADA SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EARL.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 27.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.8 WEST. EARL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR. THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH A TURN TO THE NORTH ON THURSDAY.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL APPROACH THE
NORTH CAROLINA COAST BY LATE THURSDAY...AND MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE
OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY NIGHT. THE CENTER IS
EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR OFFSHORE OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA ON
FRIDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 140 MPH...220
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EARL IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN
INTENSITY ARE LIKELY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...BUT A GRADUAL WEAKENING
TREND IS ANTICIPATED THEREAFTER.
EARL IS A LARGE HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 90 MILES...150 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT OBSERVATIONS IS 932 MB...27.52 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WINDS...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OCCURRING BY LATE THURSDAY. TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS WILL LIKELY REACH THE COAST FROM VIRGINIA NORTHWARD TO
NEW JERSEY BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY.
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS
MUCH AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA AND THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY. ELSEWHERE WITHIN THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING AREA...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH
AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
RAINFALL...ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA INCLUDING THE OUTER BANKS. ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FARTHER TO THE NORTH ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
SURF...LARGE SWELLS FROM EARL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE BAHAMAS
AND THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES THROUGH FRIDAY. THESE
SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND RIP
CURRENTS.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
000
WTNT42 KNHC 020259
TCDAT2
HURRICANE EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 31
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
1100 PM EDT WED SEP 01 2010
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE EYE OF EARL HAS
BECOME MORE WELL-DEFINED AND THE CLOUD TOPS IN THE EYEWALL HAVE
COOLED. A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE
HURRICANE FOUND THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS FALLEN
SIGNIFICANTLY...AND THEY MEASURED WINDS TO 137 KT JUST NORTH OF THE
CENTER AT A FLIGHT LEVEL JUST BELOW 7000 FT. REDUCING THIS WIND
SPEED FROM THE AIRCRAFT FLIGHT LEVEL TO THE SURFACE YIELDS ABOUT
120 KT...AND THAT WILL BE THE ADVISORY INTENSITY. SOME
FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY DUE TO INNER CORE CHANGES ARE LIKELY ON
THURSDAY. EARL SHOULD REMAIN IN A LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR ABOUT
ANOTHER 24 HOURS...THEREFORE GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD COMMENCE IN A
DAY OR SO. HOWEVER...EARL IS LIKELY TO MAINTAIN MAJOR HURRICANE
STATUS WHEN IT IS NEAREST TO...OR POSSIBLY OVER...THE OUTER BANKS.
THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS RATHER CLOSE TO THE LATEST
STATISTICAL/DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE.
THE EYE OF THE HURRICANE WOBBLED NORTHWARD A COUPLE OF HOURS
AGO...HOWEVER THE MEAN MOTION APPEARS TO BE ABOUT 330/16. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST TRACK OR
SYNOPTIC REASONING FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY PACKAGE...ALTHOUGH
THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS FORECAST HAS NUDGED EASTWARD ABOUT 20 N
MI ON THIS CYCLE. EARL IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH AND SLIGHTLY EAST OF NORTH AS IT MOVES ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
THEREAFTER...A STRONG 500 MB TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
SHOULD CAUSE THE HURRICANE TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND
ACCELERATE. ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK OF
THIS LARGE AND INTENSE HURRICANE. SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE LIKELY
TO BE FELT WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 02/0300Z 27.8N 73.8W 120 KT
12HR VT 02/1200Z 30.0N 75.1W 120 KT
24HR VT 03/0000Z 33.2N 75.2W 110 KT
36HR VT 03/1200Z 36.5N 73.7W 100 KT
48HR VT 04/0000Z 40.0N 70.7W 85 KT
72HR VT 05/0000Z 48.5N 61.5W 55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96HR VT 06/0000Z 57.0N 57.0W 40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120HR VT 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 31
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
1100 PM EDT WED SEP 01 2010
...EARL A LITTLE STRONGER...THREATENING THE U.S. MID-ATLANTIC
COAST...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.8N 73.8W
ABOUT 520 MI...840 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...932 MB...27.52 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTH
CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE
SOUNDS.
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE HENLOPEN
DELAWARE.
* WOODS HOLE TO SAGAMORE BEACH MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING MARTHAS
VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAPE FEAR TO WEST OF BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA.
* NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO SANDY HOOK NEW
JERSEY...INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY SOUTH OF SLAUGHTER BEACH AND THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY TO WOODS HOLE MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING
BLOCK ISLAND AND LONG ISLAND SOUND.
* NORTH OF SAGAMORE BEACH TO THE MOUTH OF THE MERRIMACK RIVER
MASSACHUSETTS.
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
INTERESTS IN NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN CANADA SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EARL.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 27.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.8 WEST. EARL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR. THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH A TURN TO THE NORTH ON THURSDAY.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL APPROACH THE
NORTH CAROLINA COAST BY LATE THURSDAY...AND MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE
OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY NIGHT. THE CENTER IS
EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR OFFSHORE OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA ON
FRIDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 140 MPH...220
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EARL IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN
INTENSITY ARE LIKELY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...BUT A GRADUAL WEAKENING
TREND IS ANTICIPATED THEREAFTER.
EARL IS A LARGE HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 90 MILES...150 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT OBSERVATIONS IS 932 MB...27.52 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WINDS...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OCCURRING BY LATE THURSDAY. TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS WILL LIKELY REACH THE COAST FROM VIRGINIA NORTHWARD TO
NEW JERSEY BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY.
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS
MUCH AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA AND THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY. ELSEWHERE WITHIN THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING AREA...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH
AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
RAINFALL...ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA INCLUDING THE OUTER BANKS. ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FARTHER TO THE NORTH ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
SURF...LARGE SWELLS FROM EARL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE BAHAMAS
AND THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES THROUGH FRIDAY. THESE
SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND RIP
CURRENTS.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
000
WTNT42 KNHC 020259
TCDAT2
HURRICANE EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 31
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
1100 PM EDT WED SEP 01 2010
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE EYE OF EARL HAS
BECOME MORE WELL-DEFINED AND THE CLOUD TOPS IN THE EYEWALL HAVE
COOLED. A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE
HURRICANE FOUND THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS FALLEN
SIGNIFICANTLY...AND THEY MEASURED WINDS TO 137 KT JUST NORTH OF THE
CENTER AT A FLIGHT LEVEL JUST BELOW 7000 FT. REDUCING THIS WIND
SPEED FROM THE AIRCRAFT FLIGHT LEVEL TO THE SURFACE YIELDS ABOUT
120 KT...AND THAT WILL BE THE ADVISORY INTENSITY. SOME
FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY DUE TO INNER CORE CHANGES ARE LIKELY ON
THURSDAY. EARL SHOULD REMAIN IN A LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR ABOUT
ANOTHER 24 HOURS...THEREFORE GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD COMMENCE IN A
DAY OR SO. HOWEVER...EARL IS LIKELY TO MAINTAIN MAJOR HURRICANE
STATUS WHEN IT IS NEAREST TO...OR POSSIBLY OVER...THE OUTER BANKS.
THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS RATHER CLOSE TO THE LATEST
STATISTICAL/DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE.
THE EYE OF THE HURRICANE WOBBLED NORTHWARD A COUPLE OF HOURS
AGO...HOWEVER THE MEAN MOTION APPEARS TO BE ABOUT 330/16. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST TRACK OR
SYNOPTIC REASONING FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY PACKAGE...ALTHOUGH
THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS FORECAST HAS NUDGED EASTWARD ABOUT 20 N
MI ON THIS CYCLE. EARL IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH AND SLIGHTLY EAST OF NORTH AS IT MOVES ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
THEREAFTER...A STRONG 500 MB TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
SHOULD CAUSE THE HURRICANE TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND
ACCELERATE. ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK OF
THIS LARGE AND INTENSE HURRICANE. SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE LIKELY
TO BE FELT WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 02/0300Z 27.8N 73.8W 120 KT
12HR VT 02/1200Z 30.0N 75.1W 120 KT
24HR VT 03/0000Z 33.2N 75.2W 110 KT
36HR VT 03/1200Z 36.5N 73.7W 100 KT
48HR VT 04/0000Z 40.0N 70.7W 85 KT
72HR VT 05/0000Z 48.5N 61.5W 55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96HR VT 06/0000Z 57.0N 57.0W 40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120HR VT 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
-
Brent
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 37090
- Age: 35
- Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
- Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
- Contact:
Re: ATL: EARL - Advisories
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 31A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
200 AM EDT THU SEP 02 2010
...CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE EARL MOVING QUICKLY
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...
SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.6N 74.4W
ABOUT 460 MI...740 KM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...930 MB...27.46 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTH
CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE
SOUNDS.
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE HENLOPEN
DELAWARE.
* WOODS HOLE TO SAGAMORE BEACH MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING MARTHAS
VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAPE FEAR TO WEST OF BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA.
* NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO SANDY HOOK NEW
JERSEY...INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY SOUTH OF SLAUGHTER BEACH AND THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY TO WOODS HOLE MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING
BLOCK ISLAND AND LONG ISLAND SOUND.
* NORTH OF SAGAMORE BEACH TO THE MOUTH OF THE MERRIMACK RIVER
MASSACHUSETTS.
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
INTERESTS IN NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN CANADA SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EARL.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 28.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.4 WEST. EARL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR. THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING WITH A TURN TO THE NORTH LATER
TODAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL
APPROACH THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST BY LATE THURSDAY...AND MOVE NEAR
OR OVER THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY NIGHT. THE
CENTER IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR OFFSHORE OF THE DELMARVA
PENINSULA ON FRIDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 140 MPH...220 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. EARL IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...BUT A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND IS ANTICIPATED
THEREAFTER.
EARL IS A LARGE HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 90 MILES...150 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST EXTRAPOLATED BY AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 930 MB...27.46 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WINDS...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OCCURRING BY THURSDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS WILL LIKELY REACH THE COAST FROM VIRGINIA NORTHWARD TO
NEW JERSEY BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY.
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS
MUCH AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA AND THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY. ELSEWHERE WITHIN THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING AREA...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH
AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
RAINFALL...ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA INCLUDING THE OUTER BANKS. ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FARTHER TO THE NORTH ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
SURF...LARGE SWELLS FROM EARL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE BAHAMAS
AND THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES THROUGH FRIDAY. THESE
SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND RIP
CURRENTS.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
HURRICANE EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 31A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
200 AM EDT THU SEP 02 2010
...CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE EARL MOVING QUICKLY
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...
SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.6N 74.4W
ABOUT 460 MI...740 KM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...930 MB...27.46 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTH
CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE
SOUNDS.
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE HENLOPEN
DELAWARE.
* WOODS HOLE TO SAGAMORE BEACH MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING MARTHAS
VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAPE FEAR TO WEST OF BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA.
* NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO SANDY HOOK NEW
JERSEY...INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY SOUTH OF SLAUGHTER BEACH AND THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY TO WOODS HOLE MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING
BLOCK ISLAND AND LONG ISLAND SOUND.
* NORTH OF SAGAMORE BEACH TO THE MOUTH OF THE MERRIMACK RIVER
MASSACHUSETTS.
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
INTERESTS IN NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN CANADA SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EARL.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 28.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.4 WEST. EARL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR. THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING WITH A TURN TO THE NORTH LATER
TODAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL
APPROACH THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST BY LATE THURSDAY...AND MOVE NEAR
OR OVER THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY NIGHT. THE
CENTER IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR OFFSHORE OF THE DELMARVA
PENINSULA ON FRIDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 140 MPH...220 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. EARL IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...BUT A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND IS ANTICIPATED
THEREAFTER.
EARL IS A LARGE HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 90 MILES...150 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST EXTRAPOLATED BY AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 930 MB...27.46 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WINDS...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OCCURRING BY THURSDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS WILL LIKELY REACH THE COAST FROM VIRGINIA NORTHWARD TO
NEW JERSEY BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY.
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS
MUCH AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA AND THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY. ELSEWHERE WITHIN THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING AREA...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH
AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
RAINFALL...ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA INCLUDING THE OUTER BANKS. ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FARTHER TO THE NORTH ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
SURF...LARGE SWELLS FROM EARL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE BAHAMAS
AND THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES THROUGH FRIDAY. THESE
SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND RIP
CURRENTS.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
0 likes
#neversummer
-
Brent
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 37090
- Age: 35
- Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
- Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
- Contact:
Re: ATL: EARL - Advisories
HURRICANE EARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 32
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
0900 UTC THU SEP 02 2010
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED NORTH OF SAGAMORE BEACH
MASSACHUSETTS TO PLYMOUTH MASSACHUSETTS...AND WEST OF WOODS HOLE
MASSACHUSETTS TO WESTPORT MASSACHUSETTS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF LONG
ISLAND NEW YORK FROM FIRE ISLAND INLET NORTHWARD AND EASTWARD TO
PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED NORTH OF PLYMOUTH
MASSACHUSETTS TO EASTPORT MAINE.
ENVIRONMENT CANADA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE COAST
OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM PORT MAITLAND TO MEDWAY HARBOUR.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTH
CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE
SOUNDS.
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE HENLOPEN
DELAWARE.
* WESTPORT TO PLYMOUTH MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING MARTHAS
VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAPE FEAR TO WEST OF BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA.
* NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO SANDY HOOK NEW
JERSEY...INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY SOUTH OF SLAUGHTER BEACH AND THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT.
* THE COAST OF LONG ISLAND NEW YORK FROM FIRE ISLAND INLET NORTHWARD
AND EASTWARD TO PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY TO WOODS HOLE MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING
BLOCK ISLAND AND LONG ISLAND SOUND.
* THE COAST OF LONG ISLAND NEW YORK WEST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET AND
PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR.
* NORTH OF PLYMOUTH MASSACHUSETTS TO EASTPORT MAINE.
* THE COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM PORT MAITLAND TO MEDWAY HARBOUR.
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN CANADA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EARL.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.3N 74.7W AT 02/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 16 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 928 MB
EYE DIAMETER 25 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT.
64 KT....... 80NE 70SE 40SW 60NW.
50 KT.......120NE 120SE 90SW 100NW.
34 KT.......200NE 180SE 120SW 180NW.
12 FT SEAS..420NE 300SE 300SW 320NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.3N 74.7W AT 02/0900Z
AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.6N 74.4W
FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 31.7N 75.3W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
64 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 60NW.
50 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 100NW.
34 KT...200NE 180SE 120SW 180NW.
FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 34.8N 74.6W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 60NW.
50 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 100NW.
34 KT...200NE 180SE 120SW 180NW.
FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 38.1N 72.6W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 75NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 140SW 150NW.
FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 41.6N 69.2W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 60NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 140SW 120NW.
FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 50.5N 62.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT...150NE 150SE 120SW 60NW.
34 KT...240NE 240SE 180SW 120NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.3N 74.7W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 32
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
500 AM EDT THU SEP 02 2010
...EARL STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE...NEW WARNINGS AND WATCHES
ISSUED...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.3N 74.7W
ABOUT 410 MI...660 KM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 870 MI...1400 KM SSW OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...928 MB...27.40 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED NORTH OF SAGAMORE BEACH
MASSACHUSETTS TO PLYMOUTH MASSACHUSETTS...AND WEST OF WOODS HOLE
MASSACHUSETTS TO WESTPORT MASSACHUSETTS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF LONG
ISLAND NEW YORK FROM FIRE ISLAND INLET NORTHWARD AND EASTWARD TO
PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED NORTH OF PLYMOUTH
MASSACHUSETTS TO EASTPORT MAINE.
ENVIRONMENT CANADA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE COAST
OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM PORT MAITLAND TO MEDWAY HARBOUR.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTH
CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE
SOUNDS.
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE HENLOPEN
DELAWARE.
* WESTPORT TO PLYMOUTH MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING MARTHAS
VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAPE FEAR TO WEST OF BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA.
* NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO SANDY HOOK NEW
JERSEY...INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY SOUTH OF SLAUGHTER BEACH AND THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT.
* THE COAST OF LONG ISLAND NEW YORK FROM FIRE ISLAND INLET NORTHWARD
AND EASTWARD TO PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY TO WOODS HOLE MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING
BLOCK ISLAND AND LONG ISLAND SOUND.
* THE COAST OF LONG ISLAND NEW YORK WEST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET AND
PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR.
* NORTH OF PLYMOUTH MASSACHUSETTS TO EASTPORT MAINE.
* THE COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM PORT MAITLAND TO MEDWAY HARBOUR.
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN CANADA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EARL.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 29.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.7 WEST. EARL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST AND A FASTER FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF EARL WILL PASS NEAR THE NORTH
CAROLINA OUTER BANKS TONIGHT...AND APPROACH SOUTHEASTERN NEW
ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT.
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW NEAR 145 MPH...230 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EARL IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED TO START LATER TODAY.
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230
MILES...370 KM.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTER
DATA IS 928 MB...27.40 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WINDS...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OCCURRING BY THURSDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS WILL LIKELY REACH THE COAST FROM VIRGINIA NORTHWARD TO
NEW JERSEY BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY.
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS
MUCH AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA AND THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY. ELSEWHERE WITHIN THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING AREA...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH
AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
RAINFALL...ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA INCLUDING THE OUTER BANKS. ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FARTHER TO THE NORTH ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
SURF...LARGE SWELLS FROM EARL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE BAHAMAS
AND THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES THROUGH FRIDAY. THESE
SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND RIP
CURRENTS.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
0900 UTC THU SEP 02 2010
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED NORTH OF SAGAMORE BEACH
MASSACHUSETTS TO PLYMOUTH MASSACHUSETTS...AND WEST OF WOODS HOLE
MASSACHUSETTS TO WESTPORT MASSACHUSETTS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF LONG
ISLAND NEW YORK FROM FIRE ISLAND INLET NORTHWARD AND EASTWARD TO
PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED NORTH OF PLYMOUTH
MASSACHUSETTS TO EASTPORT MAINE.
ENVIRONMENT CANADA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE COAST
OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM PORT MAITLAND TO MEDWAY HARBOUR.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTH
CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE
SOUNDS.
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE HENLOPEN
DELAWARE.
* WESTPORT TO PLYMOUTH MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING MARTHAS
VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAPE FEAR TO WEST OF BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA.
* NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO SANDY HOOK NEW
JERSEY...INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY SOUTH OF SLAUGHTER BEACH AND THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT.
* THE COAST OF LONG ISLAND NEW YORK FROM FIRE ISLAND INLET NORTHWARD
AND EASTWARD TO PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY TO WOODS HOLE MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING
BLOCK ISLAND AND LONG ISLAND SOUND.
* THE COAST OF LONG ISLAND NEW YORK WEST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET AND
PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR.
* NORTH OF PLYMOUTH MASSACHUSETTS TO EASTPORT MAINE.
* THE COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM PORT MAITLAND TO MEDWAY HARBOUR.
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN CANADA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EARL.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.3N 74.7W AT 02/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 16 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 928 MB
EYE DIAMETER 25 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT.
64 KT....... 80NE 70SE 40SW 60NW.
50 KT.......120NE 120SE 90SW 100NW.
34 KT.......200NE 180SE 120SW 180NW.
12 FT SEAS..420NE 300SE 300SW 320NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.3N 74.7W AT 02/0900Z
AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.6N 74.4W
FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 31.7N 75.3W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
64 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 60NW.
50 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 100NW.
34 KT...200NE 180SE 120SW 180NW.
FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 34.8N 74.6W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 60NW.
50 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 100NW.
34 KT...200NE 180SE 120SW 180NW.
FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 38.1N 72.6W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 75NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 140SW 150NW.
FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 41.6N 69.2W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 60NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 140SW 120NW.
FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 50.5N 62.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT...150NE 150SE 120SW 60NW.
34 KT...240NE 240SE 180SW 120NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.3N 74.7W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 32
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
500 AM EDT THU SEP 02 2010
...EARL STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE...NEW WARNINGS AND WATCHES
ISSUED...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.3N 74.7W
ABOUT 410 MI...660 KM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 870 MI...1400 KM SSW OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...928 MB...27.40 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED NORTH OF SAGAMORE BEACH
MASSACHUSETTS TO PLYMOUTH MASSACHUSETTS...AND WEST OF WOODS HOLE
MASSACHUSETTS TO WESTPORT MASSACHUSETTS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF LONG
ISLAND NEW YORK FROM FIRE ISLAND INLET NORTHWARD AND EASTWARD TO
PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED NORTH OF PLYMOUTH
MASSACHUSETTS TO EASTPORT MAINE.
ENVIRONMENT CANADA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE COAST
OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM PORT MAITLAND TO MEDWAY HARBOUR.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTH
CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE
SOUNDS.
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE HENLOPEN
DELAWARE.
* WESTPORT TO PLYMOUTH MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING MARTHAS
VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAPE FEAR TO WEST OF BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA.
* NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO SANDY HOOK NEW
JERSEY...INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY SOUTH OF SLAUGHTER BEACH AND THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT.
* THE COAST OF LONG ISLAND NEW YORK FROM FIRE ISLAND INLET NORTHWARD
AND EASTWARD TO PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY TO WOODS HOLE MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING
BLOCK ISLAND AND LONG ISLAND SOUND.
* THE COAST OF LONG ISLAND NEW YORK WEST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET AND
PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR.
* NORTH OF PLYMOUTH MASSACHUSETTS TO EASTPORT MAINE.
* THE COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM PORT MAITLAND TO MEDWAY HARBOUR.
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN CANADA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EARL.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 29.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.7 WEST. EARL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST AND A FASTER FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF EARL WILL PASS NEAR THE NORTH
CAROLINA OUTER BANKS TONIGHT...AND APPROACH SOUTHEASTERN NEW
ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT.
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW NEAR 145 MPH...230 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EARL IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED TO START LATER TODAY.
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230
MILES...370 KM.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTER
DATA IS 928 MB...27.40 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WINDS...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OCCURRING BY THURSDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS WILL LIKELY REACH THE COAST FROM VIRGINIA NORTHWARD TO
NEW JERSEY BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY.
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS
MUCH AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA AND THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY. ELSEWHERE WITHIN THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING AREA...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH
AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
RAINFALL...ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA INCLUDING THE OUTER BANKS. ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FARTHER TO THE NORTH ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
SURF...LARGE SWELLS FROM EARL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE BAHAMAS
AND THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES THROUGH FRIDAY. THESE
SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND RIP
CURRENTS.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
0 likes
#neversummer
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139051
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ATL: EARL - Advisories
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 32A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
800 AM EDT THU SEP 02 2010
...INTENSE HURRICANE EARL CONTINUES ON A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
TRACK...EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR THE OUTER BANKS TONIGHT...
SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.1N 74.8W
ABOUT 355 MI...575 KM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 820 MI...1315 KM SSW OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...932 MB...27.52 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTH
CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE
SOUNDS.
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE HENLOPEN
DELAWARE.
* WESTPORT TO PLYMOUTH MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING MARTHAS
VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAPE FEAR TO WEST OF BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA.
* NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO SANDY HOOK NEW
JERSEY...INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY SOUTH OF SLAUGHTER BEACH AND THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT.
* THE COAST OF LONG ISLAND NEW YORK FROM FIRE ISLAND INLET NORTHWARD
AND EASTWARD TO PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY TO WOODS HOLE MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING
BLOCK ISLAND AND LONG ISLAND SOUND.
* THE COAST OF LONG ISLAND NEW YORK WEST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET AND
PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR.
* NORTH OF PLYMOUTH MASSACHUSETTS TO EASTPORT MAINE.
* THE COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM PORT MAITLAND TO MEDWAY HARBOUR.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 30.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.8 WEST. EARL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR BUT A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH IS EXPECTED SOON. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND
AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF EARL WILL PASS NEAR THE NORTH
CAROLINA OUTER BANKS TONIGHT...AND BE VERY NEAR SOUTHEASTERN NEW
ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 145 MPH...230 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. EARL IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED TO START LATER TODAY...BUT EARL IS EXPECTED TO BE A MAJOR
HURRICANE WHEN IT PASSES NEAR THE OUTER BANKS.
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230
MILES...370 KM.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTER
DATA IS 932 MB...27.52 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WINDS...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN IF
THE CENTER OF EARL REMAINS OFFSHORE...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO OCCUR ON THE OUTER BANKS BY THURSDAY NIGHT.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS WILL LIKELY REACH THE COAST FROM
VIRGINIA NORTHWARD TO NEW JERSEY BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
FRIDAY.
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS
MUCH AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA AND THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY. ELSEWHERE WITHIN THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING AREA...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH
AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
RAINFALL...ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA INCLUDING THE OUTER BANKS. ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FARTHER TO THE NORTH ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
SURF...LARGE SWELLS FROM EARL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE BAHAMAS
AND THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES THROUGH FRIDAY. THESE
SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND RIP
CURRENTS.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
HURRICANE EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 32A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
800 AM EDT THU SEP 02 2010
...INTENSE HURRICANE EARL CONTINUES ON A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
TRACK...EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR THE OUTER BANKS TONIGHT...
SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.1N 74.8W
ABOUT 355 MI...575 KM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 820 MI...1315 KM SSW OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...932 MB...27.52 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTH
CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE
SOUNDS.
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE HENLOPEN
DELAWARE.
* WESTPORT TO PLYMOUTH MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING MARTHAS
VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAPE FEAR TO WEST OF BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA.
* NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO SANDY HOOK NEW
JERSEY...INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY SOUTH OF SLAUGHTER BEACH AND THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT.
* THE COAST OF LONG ISLAND NEW YORK FROM FIRE ISLAND INLET NORTHWARD
AND EASTWARD TO PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY TO WOODS HOLE MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING
BLOCK ISLAND AND LONG ISLAND SOUND.
* THE COAST OF LONG ISLAND NEW YORK WEST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET AND
PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR.
* NORTH OF PLYMOUTH MASSACHUSETTS TO EASTPORT MAINE.
* THE COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM PORT MAITLAND TO MEDWAY HARBOUR.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 30.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.8 WEST. EARL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR BUT A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH IS EXPECTED SOON. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND
AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF EARL WILL PASS NEAR THE NORTH
CAROLINA OUTER BANKS TONIGHT...AND BE VERY NEAR SOUTHEASTERN NEW
ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 145 MPH...230 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. EARL IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED TO START LATER TODAY...BUT EARL IS EXPECTED TO BE A MAJOR
HURRICANE WHEN IT PASSES NEAR THE OUTER BANKS.
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230
MILES...370 KM.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTER
DATA IS 932 MB...27.52 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WINDS...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN IF
THE CENTER OF EARL REMAINS OFFSHORE...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO OCCUR ON THE OUTER BANKS BY THURSDAY NIGHT.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS WILL LIKELY REACH THE COAST FROM
VIRGINIA NORTHWARD TO NEW JERSEY BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
FRIDAY.
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS
MUCH AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA AND THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY. ELSEWHERE WITHIN THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING AREA...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH
AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
RAINFALL...ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA INCLUDING THE OUTER BANKS. ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FARTHER TO THE NORTH ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
SURF...LARGE SWELLS FROM EARL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE BAHAMAS
AND THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES THROUGH FRIDAY. THESE
SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND RIP
CURRENTS.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Re: ATL: EARL - Advisories
WOCN31 CWHX 020600
Hurricane Earl information statement issued by the canadian
Hurricane centre of Environment Canada at 1.23 AM ADT Thursday
02 September 2010.
The next statement will be issued by 9.00 AM ADT
1. Current position, strength, central pressure and motion
At 3.00 AM ADT... Hurricane Earl was located near latitude 28.6 N
And longitude 74.4 W... About 400 nautical miles or 740 km south
southeast of Cape Hatteras. Maximum sustained winds are estimated at
120 knots... 222 km/h... And central pressure at 932 MB. Earl is
Moving north northwest at 17 knots... 31 km/h.
2. Forecast position, central pressure and strength
Date time lat lon MSLP Max wind
ADT MB kts kmh
Sep 02 3.00 AM 28.6N 74.4W 930 120 222
Sep 02 3.00 PM 31.7N 75.3W 943 115 213
Sep 03 3.00 AM 34.8N 74.5W 950 105 194
Sep 03 3.00 PM 38.5N 72.2W 959 95 176
Sep 04 3.00 AM 42.6N 67.4W 969 85 157
Sep 04 3.00 PM 47.1N 63.5W 979 65 120 transitioning
Sep 05 3.00 AM 51.7N 60.4W 981 60 111 post-tropical
Sep 05 3.00 PM 56.6N 57.3W 980 50 93 post-tropical
Sep 06 3.00 AM 60.5N 53.6W 980 45 83 post-tropical
3. Public weather impacts and warnings summary
Currently no public warnings are in effect.
Possible landfall of Earl in Atlantic Canada is still over
48 hours away. Therefore the details of the public impacts will
Be more accurately assessed later today and tonight. It is likely
that high wind and heavy rain will affect portions of Atlantic
Canada on Saturday. Official watches and warnings will likely be
issued later this afternoon.
The public should certainly pay close attention regarding weekend
plans that may be sensitive to high wind and heavy rain conditions.
It is emphasized that updated forecasts should be consulted for the
latest forecast decisions and rationale. These are issued 4
Times daily.
4. Marine weather impacts and warnings summary
Gale warnings have been issued for Browns Bank and Georges Bank
With the approach of Earl Friday evening. It is very likely
That these gales will be expanded to other marine areas
And that storm warnings and hurricane force wind warnings will
Be required for portions of the Atlantic canadian marine district.
These warnings would be issued early Friday morning.
Ocean swell will begin to reach the Nova Scotia coast today well
ahead of Earl.
With the arrival of Earl high waves and pounding surf can
Expected along the coast of the southern Maritimes Friday night and
Saturday morning and along the gulf of st. Lawrence coastlines
Saturday afternoon and evening.
5. Technical discussion for meteorlogists
A. Analysis
Satellite imagery is now lost as the goes satellite enters its
Eclipse mode but up to that time.. Earl had slight northward wobbles
on its northwestward track toward the United States. Earl is a
Large cat 4 and is showing off as a text book perfect example of
A full blown hurricane in all satellite channels. Bouy 41047
Located about 100 NM to the east of Earl recorded gusts to 60 knots
hence hurricane winds extending 70 or 80 miles out at the present
time are certainly reasonable.
B. Prognostic
Earl is now rounding the westernmost flank of the subtropical ridge
hence will take on an more northward motion through the day.
Thereafter it will be increasingly guided by an upper trough moving
through the Great Lakes. This will cause it to accelerate through
Atlantic Canada as it weakens. Given the high potential temperatures
Of the airmass over the Maritimes.. Earl will continue to hold onto
its tropical characteristics for a long time as it loses its
Symmetry. As pointed out in previous messages.. Water temperatures
south of Nova Scotia are above normal by 2 to 4 degrees and have
Been persistently warm during the latter part of August. This
Factor will play into our forecast of intensity as the
Storm moves over those waters.
Ultimately.. The Great Lakes trough will advance through Eastern
Canada and steadily rob Earl of its energy as Earl becomes gradually
incorporated into this feature. Frictional degradation is another
factor which will weaken Earl.
A multitude of numerical models continue to show little
Significant change on Earl's forecast track toward Atlantic Canada.
As a result our confidence is increasing that Earl will move into
Southern Nova Scotia Saturday morning. However.. Our experience
shows that we must cautious at the same time. Though our envelope
Of possibiliies on Earl's track is diminishing.. Earl could end
Up as far west as the Bay of Fundy or as far east as Cape Breton
Island.
The official track map posted on our websites.. Although specific in
terms of a line marked with storm positions at specific times and
Showing Earl as a landfalling category-one hurricane..Simply
represents the average of many factors.
At issue time.. An analysis of the probabilistic computer models
Can not be completed. The next issue of our message
Will likely show an increase in the statistical probabilities
assocated with Earl. The exact numbers will be fleshed out in the
next bulletin.
C. Public weather
Asymmetries in the wind and rain fields will develop as the storm
moves toward the Maritimes. Heaviest rain will likely move toward
The front side of the storm and highest winds concentrated to the
right of the storm track. This is important to keep in mind when
considering the track forecast relative to your location. Highest
rainfalls with storms like this will likely be to the left (west) of
the storm track. Later today we will introduce estimates of wind
Speeds and rainfall in a track-relative sense..Then establish
geographically-specific details going into Friday.
D. Marine weather
Swells from Earl will begin reaching the Nova Scotia coast today.
Gale warnings are now in effect for Browns Bank and Georges Bank.
These gales will very likely be expanded and/or upgraded to storm
warnings or hurricane force wind warnings with the marine forecasts
early Friday morning.
The details about wave heights and storm surge arriving at Atlantic
canadian coastlines will be worked out later today and tonight. Heavy
pounding surf is very likely over the southern Maritimes starting
Friday night and persisting Saturday. Wave action will likely
Build over the gulf of st. Lawrence Saturday afternoon and evening.
Predicted wind radii (NM)
Time gales storms hurricane
Ne se sw nw ne se sw nw ne se sw nw
02/06Z 200 180 120 180 120 120 90 100 80 70 40 60
02/18Z 200 180 120 180 120 120 90 100 80 70 40 55
03/06Z 200 190 130 160 120 120 90 90 80 70 40 50
03/18Z 200 200 140 135 120 120 90 70 65 65 30 40
04/06Z 210 210 140 130 120 120 75 60 35 30 15 25
04/18Z 225 230 130 120 120 120 40 60 10 20 10 0
05/06Z 240 240 140 150 120 120 40 60 0 0 0 0
05/18Z 240 260 150 200 75 75 40 30 0 0 0 0
06/06Z 240 300 160 220 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
End campbell/hatt
Hurricane Earl information statement issued by the canadian
Hurricane centre of Environment Canada at 1.23 AM ADT Thursday
02 September 2010.
The next statement will be issued by 9.00 AM ADT
1. Current position, strength, central pressure and motion
At 3.00 AM ADT... Hurricane Earl was located near latitude 28.6 N
And longitude 74.4 W... About 400 nautical miles or 740 km south
southeast of Cape Hatteras. Maximum sustained winds are estimated at
120 knots... 222 km/h... And central pressure at 932 MB. Earl is
Moving north northwest at 17 knots... 31 km/h.
2. Forecast position, central pressure and strength
Date time lat lon MSLP Max wind
ADT MB kts kmh
Sep 02 3.00 AM 28.6N 74.4W 930 120 222
Sep 02 3.00 PM 31.7N 75.3W 943 115 213
Sep 03 3.00 AM 34.8N 74.5W 950 105 194
Sep 03 3.00 PM 38.5N 72.2W 959 95 176
Sep 04 3.00 AM 42.6N 67.4W 969 85 157
Sep 04 3.00 PM 47.1N 63.5W 979 65 120 transitioning
Sep 05 3.00 AM 51.7N 60.4W 981 60 111 post-tropical
Sep 05 3.00 PM 56.6N 57.3W 980 50 93 post-tropical
Sep 06 3.00 AM 60.5N 53.6W 980 45 83 post-tropical
3. Public weather impacts and warnings summary
Currently no public warnings are in effect.
Possible landfall of Earl in Atlantic Canada is still over
48 hours away. Therefore the details of the public impacts will
Be more accurately assessed later today and tonight. It is likely
that high wind and heavy rain will affect portions of Atlantic
Canada on Saturday. Official watches and warnings will likely be
issued later this afternoon.
The public should certainly pay close attention regarding weekend
plans that may be sensitive to high wind and heavy rain conditions.
It is emphasized that updated forecasts should be consulted for the
latest forecast decisions and rationale. These are issued 4
Times daily.
4. Marine weather impacts and warnings summary
Gale warnings have been issued for Browns Bank and Georges Bank
With the approach of Earl Friday evening. It is very likely
That these gales will be expanded to other marine areas
And that storm warnings and hurricane force wind warnings will
Be required for portions of the Atlantic canadian marine district.
These warnings would be issued early Friday morning.
Ocean swell will begin to reach the Nova Scotia coast today well
ahead of Earl.
With the arrival of Earl high waves and pounding surf can
Expected along the coast of the southern Maritimes Friday night and
Saturday morning and along the gulf of st. Lawrence coastlines
Saturday afternoon and evening.
5. Technical discussion for meteorlogists
A. Analysis
Satellite imagery is now lost as the goes satellite enters its
Eclipse mode but up to that time.. Earl had slight northward wobbles
on its northwestward track toward the United States. Earl is a
Large cat 4 and is showing off as a text book perfect example of
A full blown hurricane in all satellite channels. Bouy 41047
Located about 100 NM to the east of Earl recorded gusts to 60 knots
hence hurricane winds extending 70 or 80 miles out at the present
time are certainly reasonable.
B. Prognostic
Earl is now rounding the westernmost flank of the subtropical ridge
hence will take on an more northward motion through the day.
Thereafter it will be increasingly guided by an upper trough moving
through the Great Lakes. This will cause it to accelerate through
Atlantic Canada as it weakens. Given the high potential temperatures
Of the airmass over the Maritimes.. Earl will continue to hold onto
its tropical characteristics for a long time as it loses its
Symmetry. As pointed out in previous messages.. Water temperatures
south of Nova Scotia are above normal by 2 to 4 degrees and have
Been persistently warm during the latter part of August. This
Factor will play into our forecast of intensity as the
Storm moves over those waters.
Ultimately.. The Great Lakes trough will advance through Eastern
Canada and steadily rob Earl of its energy as Earl becomes gradually
incorporated into this feature. Frictional degradation is another
factor which will weaken Earl.
A multitude of numerical models continue to show little
Significant change on Earl's forecast track toward Atlantic Canada.
As a result our confidence is increasing that Earl will move into
Southern Nova Scotia Saturday morning. However.. Our experience
shows that we must cautious at the same time. Though our envelope
Of possibiliies on Earl's track is diminishing.. Earl could end
Up as far west as the Bay of Fundy or as far east as Cape Breton
Island.
The official track map posted on our websites.. Although specific in
terms of a line marked with storm positions at specific times and
Showing Earl as a landfalling category-one hurricane..Simply
represents the average of many factors.
At issue time.. An analysis of the probabilistic computer models
Can not be completed. The next issue of our message
Will likely show an increase in the statistical probabilities
assocated with Earl. The exact numbers will be fleshed out in the
next bulletin.
C. Public weather
Asymmetries in the wind and rain fields will develop as the storm
moves toward the Maritimes. Heaviest rain will likely move toward
The front side of the storm and highest winds concentrated to the
right of the storm track. This is important to keep in mind when
considering the track forecast relative to your location. Highest
rainfalls with storms like this will likely be to the left (west) of
the storm track. Later today we will introduce estimates of wind
Speeds and rainfall in a track-relative sense..Then establish
geographically-specific details going into Friday.
D. Marine weather
Swells from Earl will begin reaching the Nova Scotia coast today.
Gale warnings are now in effect for Browns Bank and Georges Bank.
These gales will very likely be expanded and/or upgraded to storm
warnings or hurricane force wind warnings with the marine forecasts
early Friday morning.
The details about wave heights and storm surge arriving at Atlantic
canadian coastlines will be worked out later today and tonight. Heavy
pounding surf is very likely over the southern Maritimes starting
Friday night and persisting Saturday. Wave action will likely
Build over the gulf of st. Lawrence Saturday afternoon and evening.
Predicted wind radii (NM)
Time gales storms hurricane
Ne se sw nw ne se sw nw ne se sw nw
02/06Z 200 180 120 180 120 120 90 100 80 70 40 60
02/18Z 200 180 120 180 120 120 90 100 80 70 40 55
03/06Z 200 190 130 160 120 120 90 90 80 70 40 50
03/18Z 200 200 140 135 120 120 90 70 65 65 30 40
04/06Z 210 210 140 130 120 120 75 60 35 30 15 25
04/18Z 225 230 130 120 120 120 40 60 10 20 10 0
05/06Z 240 240 140 150 120 120 40 60 0 0 0 0
05/18Z 240 260 150 200 75 75 40 30 0 0 0 0
06/06Z 240 300 160 220 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
End campbell/hatt
0 likes
-
Brent
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 37090
- Age: 35
- Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
- Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
- Contact:
Re: ATL: EARL - Advisories
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 33A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
200 PM EDT THU SEP 02 2010
...EARL EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR THE OUTER BANKS AS A LARGE AND
POWERFUL HURRICANE TONIGHT...
SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.7N 75.2W
ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 720 MI...1155 KM SSW OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...943 MB...27.85 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR NOVA
SCOTIA FROM MEDWAY HARBOUR TO DIGBY...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
FOR NOVA SCOTIA FROM ECUM SECUM TO MEDWAY HARBOUR AND FROM DIGBY TO
FORT LAWRENCE.
THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE HAS ALSO ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
FOR NEW BRUNSWICK FROM JUST WEST OF FORT LAWRENCE WESTWARD TO THE
U.S./CANADA BORDER.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTH
CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE
SOUNDS.
* WESTPORT MASSACHUSETTS EASTWARD AROUND CAPE COD TO HULL INCLUDING
MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET ISLAND
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE HENLOPEN
DELAWARE.
* NOVA SCOTIA FROM MEDWAY HARBOUR TO DIGBY
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAPE FEAR TO WEST OF BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA.
* NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO SANDY HOOK NEW
JERSEY...INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY SOUTH OF SLAUGHTER BEACH AND THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT.
* THE EASTERN PORTION OF LONG ISLAND NEW YORK FROM FIRE ISLAND INLET
TO PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR.
* NEW HAVEN CONNECTICUT TO WEST OF WESTPORT MASSACHUSETTS...
INCLUDING BLOCK ISLAND.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF HULL MASSACHUSETTS TO EASTPORT MAINE.
* THE COAST OF LONG ISLAND WEST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET AND PORT
JEFFERSON HARBOR.
* NOVA SCOTIA FROM ECUM SECUM TO MEDWAY HARBOUR AND FROM DIGBY TO
FORT LAWRENCE.
* NEW BRUNSWICK FROM JUST WEST OF FORT LAWRENCE WESTWARD TO THE
U.S./CANADA BORDER.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 31.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.2 WEST. EARL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF EARL WILL PASS NEAR
THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS TONIGHT...AND APPROACH SOUTHEASTERN
NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT.
DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT EARL HAS BEGUN TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH...205
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EARL IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD
CONTINUE TODAY AND FRIDAY...BUT EARL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A
POWERFUL HURRICANE AS IT PASSES NEAR THE OUTER BANKS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230
MILES...370 KM.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE PLANE
WAS 943 MB...27.85 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WINDS...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN IF
THE CENTER OF EARL REMAINS OFFSHORE...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN THE OUTER BANKS BY TONIGHT. TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS WILL LIKELY REACH THE COAST FROM VIRGINIA NORTHWARD TO
NEW JERSEY TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY.
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS
MUCH AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN BOTH HURRICANE WARNING
AREAS AND THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY. ELSEWHERE WITHIN THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING AREA...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH
AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
RAINFALL...ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA INCLUDING THE OUTER BANKS. ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FARTHER TO THE NORTH ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
SURF...LARGE SWELLS FROM EARL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE BAHAMAS
AND THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES THROUGH FRIDAY. THESE
SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND RIP
CURRENTS.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
HURRICANE EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 33A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
200 PM EDT THU SEP 02 2010
...EARL EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR THE OUTER BANKS AS A LARGE AND
POWERFUL HURRICANE TONIGHT...
SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.7N 75.2W
ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 720 MI...1155 KM SSW OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...943 MB...27.85 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR NOVA
SCOTIA FROM MEDWAY HARBOUR TO DIGBY...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
FOR NOVA SCOTIA FROM ECUM SECUM TO MEDWAY HARBOUR AND FROM DIGBY TO
FORT LAWRENCE.
THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE HAS ALSO ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
FOR NEW BRUNSWICK FROM JUST WEST OF FORT LAWRENCE WESTWARD TO THE
U.S./CANADA BORDER.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTH
CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE
SOUNDS.
* WESTPORT MASSACHUSETTS EASTWARD AROUND CAPE COD TO HULL INCLUDING
MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET ISLAND
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE HENLOPEN
DELAWARE.
* NOVA SCOTIA FROM MEDWAY HARBOUR TO DIGBY
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAPE FEAR TO WEST OF BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA.
* NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO SANDY HOOK NEW
JERSEY...INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY SOUTH OF SLAUGHTER BEACH AND THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT.
* THE EASTERN PORTION OF LONG ISLAND NEW YORK FROM FIRE ISLAND INLET
TO PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR.
* NEW HAVEN CONNECTICUT TO WEST OF WESTPORT MASSACHUSETTS...
INCLUDING BLOCK ISLAND.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF HULL MASSACHUSETTS TO EASTPORT MAINE.
* THE COAST OF LONG ISLAND WEST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET AND PORT
JEFFERSON HARBOR.
* NOVA SCOTIA FROM ECUM SECUM TO MEDWAY HARBOUR AND FROM DIGBY TO
FORT LAWRENCE.
* NEW BRUNSWICK FROM JUST WEST OF FORT LAWRENCE WESTWARD TO THE
U.S./CANADA BORDER.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 31.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.2 WEST. EARL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF EARL WILL PASS NEAR
THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS TONIGHT...AND APPROACH SOUTHEASTERN
NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT.
DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT EARL HAS BEGUN TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH...205
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EARL IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD
CONTINUE TODAY AND FRIDAY...BUT EARL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A
POWERFUL HURRICANE AS IT PASSES NEAR THE OUTER BANKS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230
MILES...370 KM.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE PLANE
WAS 943 MB...27.85 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WINDS...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN IF
THE CENTER OF EARL REMAINS OFFSHORE...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN THE OUTER BANKS BY TONIGHT. TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS WILL LIKELY REACH THE COAST FROM VIRGINIA NORTHWARD TO
NEW JERSEY TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY.
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS
MUCH AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN BOTH HURRICANE WARNING
AREAS AND THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY. ELSEWHERE WITHIN THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING AREA...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH
AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
RAINFALL...ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA INCLUDING THE OUTER BANKS. ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FARTHER TO THE NORTH ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
SURF...LARGE SWELLS FROM EARL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE BAHAMAS
AND THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES THROUGH FRIDAY. THESE
SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND RIP
CURRENTS.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
0 likes
#neversummer
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139051
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ATL: EARL - Advisories
000
WTNT42 KNHC 022039
TCDAT2
HURRICANE EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 34
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
500 PM EDT THU SEP 02 2010
DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT EARL HAS WEAKENED A
LITTLE BIT THIS AFTERNOON. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE ROSE TO 947
MB...AND A BLEND OF THE SFMR MEASUREMENTS AND FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS
SUGGEST THAT THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS DECREASED TO 100 KNOTS. EARL
SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY AS THE SHEAR INCREASES AND THE
HURRICANE SHOULD WEAKEN EVEN FASTER AFTER 24 HOURS AS IT MOVES OVER
A COLDER OCEAN. AFTER CROSSING CANADA IN 48 HOURS...EARL SHOULD
BECOME POST-TROPICAL/EXTRATROPICAL AND THEN DISSIPATE AS IT IS
ABSORBED BY A MUCH LARGER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE.
SATELLITE AND RECONNAISSANCE FIXES SHOW...AS ANTICIPATED...THAT EARL
HAS TURNED NORTHWARD AND IS MOVING 360 DEGREES AT 16 KNOTS. THE
STEERING PATTERN CONTROLLING THE MOTION OF EARL...AND THE
CONSISTENCY IN TRACK GUIDANCE...HAVE BEEN ADEQUATELY DESCRIBED IN
PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS. EARL IS ABOUT TO BECOME EMBEDDED IN THE
MID-LATITUDE FLOW AND IT IS READY TO GRADUALLY TURN TO THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST AND NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.
ALTHOUGH THE MAXIMUM WINDS IN THE CORE HAVE DECREASED...EARL
CONTINUES TO BE A LARGE AND POWERFUL HURRICANE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 02/2100Z 32.5N 75.2W 100 KT
12HR VT 03/0600Z 34.8N 74.8W 95 KT
24HR VT 03/1800Z 38.0N 72.7W 85 KT
36HR VT 04/0600Z 41.7N 69.0W 75 KT
48HR VT 04/1800Z 46.5N 64.5W 50 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72HR VT 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
WTNT42 KNHC 022039
TCDAT2
HURRICANE EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 34
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
500 PM EDT THU SEP 02 2010
DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT EARL HAS WEAKENED A
LITTLE BIT THIS AFTERNOON. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE ROSE TO 947
MB...AND A BLEND OF THE SFMR MEASUREMENTS AND FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS
SUGGEST THAT THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS DECREASED TO 100 KNOTS. EARL
SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY AS THE SHEAR INCREASES AND THE
HURRICANE SHOULD WEAKEN EVEN FASTER AFTER 24 HOURS AS IT MOVES OVER
A COLDER OCEAN. AFTER CROSSING CANADA IN 48 HOURS...EARL SHOULD
BECOME POST-TROPICAL/EXTRATROPICAL AND THEN DISSIPATE AS IT IS
ABSORBED BY A MUCH LARGER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE.
SATELLITE AND RECONNAISSANCE FIXES SHOW...AS ANTICIPATED...THAT EARL
HAS TURNED NORTHWARD AND IS MOVING 360 DEGREES AT 16 KNOTS. THE
STEERING PATTERN CONTROLLING THE MOTION OF EARL...AND THE
CONSISTENCY IN TRACK GUIDANCE...HAVE BEEN ADEQUATELY DESCRIBED IN
PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS. EARL IS ABOUT TO BECOME EMBEDDED IN THE
MID-LATITUDE FLOW AND IT IS READY TO GRADUALLY TURN TO THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST AND NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.
ALTHOUGH THE MAXIMUM WINDS IN THE CORE HAVE DECREASED...EARL
CONTINUES TO BE A LARGE AND POWERFUL HURRICANE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 02/2100Z 32.5N 75.2W 100 KT
12HR VT 03/0600Z 34.8N 74.8W 95 KT
24HR VT 03/1800Z 38.0N 72.7W 85 KT
36HR VT 04/0600Z 41.7N 69.0W 75 KT
48HR VT 04/1800Z 46.5N 64.5W 50 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72HR VT 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139051
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ATL: EARL - Advisories
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 34A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
800 PM EDT THU SEP 02 2010
...HURRICANE EARL CONTINUES NORTHWARD...RAINBANDS MOVING ONTO THE
COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA...
SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.0N 74.7W
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 625 MI...1005 KM SSW OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...165 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 010 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...27.99 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTH
CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE
SOUNDS
* WESTPORT MASSACHUSETTS EASTWARD AROUND CAPE COD TO HULL
MASSACHUSETTS INCLUDING MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET ISLAND
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE HENLOPEN
DELAWARE
* NOVA SCOTIA FROM MEDWAY HARBOUR TO DIGBY
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA TO WEST OF BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA
* NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO SANDY HOOK NEW
JERSEY...INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY SOUTH OF SLAUGHTER BEACH AND THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT
* THE COAST OF LONG ISLAND NEW YORK FROM FIRE ISLAND INLET EASTWARD
ON THE SOUTH SHORE AND PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR EASTWARD ON THE NORTH
SHORE
* NEW HAVEN CONNECTICUT TO WEST OF WESTPORT MASSACHUSETTS...
INCLUDING BLOCK ISLAND
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF HULL MASSACHUSETTS TO EASTPORT MAINE
* THE COAST OF LONG ISLAND WEST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET ON THE SOUTH
SHORE AND WEST OF PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR ON THE NORTH SHORE
* NOVA SCOTIA FROM ECUM SECUM TO MEDWAY HARBOUR AND FROM DIGBY TO
FORT LAWRENCE
* NEW BRUNSWICK FROM JUST WEST OF FORT LAWRENCE WESTWARD TO THE
U.S./CANADA BORDER
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES
...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED
BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR LATITUDE
33.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.7 WEST. EARL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH
NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH AN
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF EARL WILL PASS NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER
BANKS TONIGHT...AND APPROACH SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/HR
...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EARL IS NOW A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...BUT EARL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A
LARGE AND STRONG HURRICANE AS IT PASSES NEAR THE OUTER BANKS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM. THE DIAMOND SHOALS BUOY...LOCATED ABOUT 20
MILES...30 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS...RECENTLY REPORTED A
WIND GUST TO 38 MPH...60 KM/HR.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A NOAA HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 948 MB...27.99 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WINDS...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA SOON. EVEN IF THE CENTER OF
EARL REMAINS OFFSHORE...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR
IN THE OUTER BANKS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS
WILL LIKELY REACH THE COAST FROM VIRGINIA NORTHWARD TO
MASSACHUSETTS ON FRIDAY. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN MASSACHUSETTS FRIDAY NIGHT.
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS
MUCH AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA OVER NORTH CAROLINA AND THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY. STORM SURGE
WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE GROUND
LEVEL WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA OVER MASSACHUSETTS.
ELSEWHERE WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA...STORM SURGE WILL
RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL.
NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
RAINFALL...EARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2
TO 4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES...OVER
PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...THE OUTER BANKS AND SOUTHEAST
NEW ENGLAND. ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM
EXTREME SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA NORTHWARD ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST...AS WELL AS OVER DOWNEAST MAINE.
SURF...LARGE SWELLS FROM EARL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE BAHAMAS
AND THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES THROUGH FRIDAY. THESE
SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND RIP
CURRENTS.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/BERG
HURRICANE EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 34A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
800 PM EDT THU SEP 02 2010
...HURRICANE EARL CONTINUES NORTHWARD...RAINBANDS MOVING ONTO THE
COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA...
SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.0N 74.7W
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 625 MI...1005 KM SSW OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...165 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 010 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...27.99 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTH
CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE
SOUNDS
* WESTPORT MASSACHUSETTS EASTWARD AROUND CAPE COD TO HULL
MASSACHUSETTS INCLUDING MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET ISLAND
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE HENLOPEN
DELAWARE
* NOVA SCOTIA FROM MEDWAY HARBOUR TO DIGBY
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA TO WEST OF BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA
* NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO SANDY HOOK NEW
JERSEY...INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY SOUTH OF SLAUGHTER BEACH AND THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT
* THE COAST OF LONG ISLAND NEW YORK FROM FIRE ISLAND INLET EASTWARD
ON THE SOUTH SHORE AND PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR EASTWARD ON THE NORTH
SHORE
* NEW HAVEN CONNECTICUT TO WEST OF WESTPORT MASSACHUSETTS...
INCLUDING BLOCK ISLAND
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF HULL MASSACHUSETTS TO EASTPORT MAINE
* THE COAST OF LONG ISLAND WEST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET ON THE SOUTH
SHORE AND WEST OF PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR ON THE NORTH SHORE
* NOVA SCOTIA FROM ECUM SECUM TO MEDWAY HARBOUR AND FROM DIGBY TO
FORT LAWRENCE
* NEW BRUNSWICK FROM JUST WEST OF FORT LAWRENCE WESTWARD TO THE
U.S./CANADA BORDER
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES
...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED
BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR LATITUDE
33.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.7 WEST. EARL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH
NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH AN
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF EARL WILL PASS NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER
BANKS TONIGHT...AND APPROACH SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/HR
...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EARL IS NOW A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...BUT EARL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A
LARGE AND STRONG HURRICANE AS IT PASSES NEAR THE OUTER BANKS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM. THE DIAMOND SHOALS BUOY...LOCATED ABOUT 20
MILES...30 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS...RECENTLY REPORTED A
WIND GUST TO 38 MPH...60 KM/HR.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A NOAA HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 948 MB...27.99 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WINDS...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA SOON. EVEN IF THE CENTER OF
EARL REMAINS OFFSHORE...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR
IN THE OUTER BANKS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS
WILL LIKELY REACH THE COAST FROM VIRGINIA NORTHWARD TO
MASSACHUSETTS ON FRIDAY. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN MASSACHUSETTS FRIDAY NIGHT.
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS
MUCH AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA OVER NORTH CAROLINA AND THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY. STORM SURGE
WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE GROUND
LEVEL WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA OVER MASSACHUSETTS.
ELSEWHERE WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA...STORM SURGE WILL
RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL.
NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
RAINFALL...EARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2
TO 4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES...OVER
PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...THE OUTER BANKS AND SOUTHEAST
NEW ENGLAND. ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM
EXTREME SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA NORTHWARD ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST...AS WELL AS OVER DOWNEAST MAINE.
SURF...LARGE SWELLS FROM EARL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE BAHAMAS
AND THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES THROUGH FRIDAY. THESE
SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND RIP
CURRENTS.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/BERG
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139051
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ATL: EARL - Advisories
2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 35
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
1100 PM EDT THU SEP 02 2010
...CENTER OF EARL PASSING JUST EAST OF THE OUTER BANKS...NEW
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR NEW ENGLAND...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.8N 74.4W
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 570 MI...915 KM SSW OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...951 MB...28.08 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF MASSACHUSETTS
FROM NORTH OF HULL TO THE MERRIMACK RIVER...AND FOR THE COAST OF
MAINE FROM STONINGTON TO EASTPORT.
ENVIRONMENT CANADA HAS EXPANDED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO INCLUDE
PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND...THE COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM ECUM SECUM
NORTHWARD TO POINT TUPPER...AND FROM AULDS COVE IN NOVA SCOTIA
WESTWARD TO SHEDIAC IN NEW BRUNSWICK.
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM CAPE FEAR TO WEST OF SURF CITY NORTH
CAROLINA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTH
CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE
SOUNDS
* WESTPORT MASSACHUSETTS EASTWARD AROUND CAPE COD TO HULL
MASSACHUSETTS INCLUDING MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET ISLAND
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE HENLOPEN
DELAWARE
* NOVA SCOTIA FROM MEDWAY HARBOUR TO DIGBY
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA TO WEST OF BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA
* NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO SANDY HOOK NEW
JERSEY...INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY SOUTH OF SLAUGHTER BEACH AND THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT
* THE COAST OF LONG ISLAND NEW YORK FROM FIRE ISLAND INLET EASTWARD
ON THE SOUTH SHORE AND PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR EASTWARD ON THE NORTH
SHORE
* NEW HAVEN CONNECTICUT TO WEST OF WESTPORT MASSACHUSETTS...
INCLUDING BLOCK ISLAND
* NORTH OF HULL MASSACHUSETTS TO THE MERRIMACK RIVER
* STONINGTON MAINE EASTWARD TO EASTPORT MAINE
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF THE MERRIMACK RIVER TO WEST OF STONINGTON MAINE
* THE COAST OF LONG ISLAND WEST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET ON THE SOUTH
SHORE AND WEST OF PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR ON THE NORTH SHORE
* NEW BRUNSWICK FROM THE U.S./CANADA BORDER EASTWARD TO FORT
LAWRENCE AND FROM TIDNISH WESTWARD TO SHEDIAC
* NOVA SCOTIA FROM FORT LAWRENCE SOUTHWESTWARD TO DIGBY...MEDWAY
HARBOUR NORTHEASTWARD TO POINT TUPPER...AND AULDS COVE WESTWARD TO
TIDNISH
* PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO CANADA...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 33.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.4 WEST. EARL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR. AN INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ARE EXPECTED IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF EARL
WILL PASS NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS TONIGHT...AND WILL
APPROACH SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT.
DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 105 MPH...165
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EARL IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
24 TO 36 HOURS...BUT EARL IS EXPECTED REMAIN A LARGE HURRICANE AS IT
PASSES NEAR THE OUTER BANKS AND APPROACHES SOUTHEASTERN NEW
ENGLAND.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
205 MILES...335 KM.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 951 MB...28.08 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WINDS...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING ALONG THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED IN THE OUTER BANKS OVERNIGHT. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS WILL LIKELY REACH THE COAST FROM VIRGINIA NORTHWARD TO
MASSACHUSETTS ON FRIDAY...AND SPREAD OVER THE COAST OF MAINE WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN MASSACHUSETTS FRIDAY NIGHT.
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS
MUCH AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA OVER NORTH CAROLINA...AS WELL AS IN THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY.
STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE
GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA OVER MASSACHUSETTS.
ELSEWHERE WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA...STORM SURGE WILL
RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL.
NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
RAINFALL...EARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2
TO 4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES...OVER
PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA INCLUDING THE OUTER BANKS.
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5
INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND. ACCUMULATIONS OF
1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA
NORTHWARD ALONG THE IMMEDIATE MID-ATLANTIC COAST...AS WELL AS OVER
DOWNEAST MAINE.
SURF...LARGE SWELLS FROM EARL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE EAST COAST
OF THE UNITED STATES THROUGH FRIDAY...AND BEGIN TO SUBSIDE IN THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS OVERNIGHT. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE
DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND RIP CURRENTS.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/BERG
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 35
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
1100 PM EDT THU SEP 02 2010
...CENTER OF EARL PASSING JUST EAST OF THE OUTER BANKS...NEW
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR NEW ENGLAND...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.8N 74.4W
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 570 MI...915 KM SSW OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...951 MB...28.08 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF MASSACHUSETTS
FROM NORTH OF HULL TO THE MERRIMACK RIVER...AND FOR THE COAST OF
MAINE FROM STONINGTON TO EASTPORT.
ENVIRONMENT CANADA HAS EXPANDED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO INCLUDE
PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND...THE COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM ECUM SECUM
NORTHWARD TO POINT TUPPER...AND FROM AULDS COVE IN NOVA SCOTIA
WESTWARD TO SHEDIAC IN NEW BRUNSWICK.
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM CAPE FEAR TO WEST OF SURF CITY NORTH
CAROLINA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTH
CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE
SOUNDS
* WESTPORT MASSACHUSETTS EASTWARD AROUND CAPE COD TO HULL
MASSACHUSETTS INCLUDING MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET ISLAND
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE HENLOPEN
DELAWARE
* NOVA SCOTIA FROM MEDWAY HARBOUR TO DIGBY
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA TO WEST OF BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA
* NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO SANDY HOOK NEW
JERSEY...INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY SOUTH OF SLAUGHTER BEACH AND THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT
* THE COAST OF LONG ISLAND NEW YORK FROM FIRE ISLAND INLET EASTWARD
ON THE SOUTH SHORE AND PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR EASTWARD ON THE NORTH
SHORE
* NEW HAVEN CONNECTICUT TO WEST OF WESTPORT MASSACHUSETTS...
INCLUDING BLOCK ISLAND
* NORTH OF HULL MASSACHUSETTS TO THE MERRIMACK RIVER
* STONINGTON MAINE EASTWARD TO EASTPORT MAINE
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF THE MERRIMACK RIVER TO WEST OF STONINGTON MAINE
* THE COAST OF LONG ISLAND WEST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET ON THE SOUTH
SHORE AND WEST OF PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR ON THE NORTH SHORE
* NEW BRUNSWICK FROM THE U.S./CANADA BORDER EASTWARD TO FORT
LAWRENCE AND FROM TIDNISH WESTWARD TO SHEDIAC
* NOVA SCOTIA FROM FORT LAWRENCE SOUTHWESTWARD TO DIGBY...MEDWAY
HARBOUR NORTHEASTWARD TO POINT TUPPER...AND AULDS COVE WESTWARD TO
TIDNISH
* PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO CANADA...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 33.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.4 WEST. EARL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR. AN INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ARE EXPECTED IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF EARL
WILL PASS NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS TONIGHT...AND WILL
APPROACH SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT.
DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 105 MPH...165
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EARL IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
24 TO 36 HOURS...BUT EARL IS EXPECTED REMAIN A LARGE HURRICANE AS IT
PASSES NEAR THE OUTER BANKS AND APPROACHES SOUTHEASTERN NEW
ENGLAND.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
205 MILES...335 KM.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 951 MB...28.08 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WINDS...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING ALONG THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED IN THE OUTER BANKS OVERNIGHT. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS WILL LIKELY REACH THE COAST FROM VIRGINIA NORTHWARD TO
MASSACHUSETTS ON FRIDAY...AND SPREAD OVER THE COAST OF MAINE WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN MASSACHUSETTS FRIDAY NIGHT.
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS
MUCH AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA OVER NORTH CAROLINA...AS WELL AS IN THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY.
STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE
GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA OVER MASSACHUSETTS.
ELSEWHERE WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA...STORM SURGE WILL
RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL.
NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
RAINFALL...EARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2
TO 4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES...OVER
PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA INCLUDING THE OUTER BANKS.
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5
INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND. ACCUMULATIONS OF
1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA
NORTHWARD ALONG THE IMMEDIATE MID-ATLANTIC COAST...AS WELL AS OVER
DOWNEAST MAINE.
SURF...LARGE SWELLS FROM EARL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE EAST COAST
OF THE UNITED STATES THROUGH FRIDAY...AND BEGIN TO SUBSIDE IN THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS OVERNIGHT. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE
DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND RIP CURRENTS.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/BERG
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
-
Brent
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 37090
- Age: 35
- Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
- Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
- Contact:
Re: ATL: EARL - Advisories
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 35A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
200 AM EDT FRI SEP 03 2010
...CENTER OF EARL NOW EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS...TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS AFFECTING THE OUTER BANKS...
SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.6N 74.3W
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM ESE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 515 MI...830 KM SSW OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTH
CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE
SOUNDS
* WESTPORT MASSACHUSETTS EASTWARD AROUND CAPE COD TO HULL
MASSACHUSETTS INCLUDING MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET ISLAND
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE HENLOPEN
DELAWARE
* NOVA SCOTIA FROM MEDWAY HARBOUR TO DIGBY
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA TO WEST OF BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA
* NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO SANDY HOOK NEW
JERSEY...INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY SOUTH OF SLAUGHTER BEACH AND THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT
* THE COAST OF LONG ISLAND NEW YORK FROM FIRE ISLAND INLET EASTWARD
ON THE SOUTH SHORE AND PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR EASTWARD ON THE NORTH
SHORE
* NEW HAVEN CONNECTICUT TO WEST OF WESTPORT MASSACHUSETTS...
INCLUDING BLOCK ISLAND
* NORTH OF HULL MASSACHUSETTS TO THE MERRIMACK RIVER
* STONINGTON MAINE EASTWARD TO EASTPORT MAINE
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF THE MERRIMACK RIVER TO WEST OF STONINGTON MAINE
* THE COAST OF LONG ISLAND WEST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET ON THE SOUTH
SHORE AND WEST OF PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR ON THE NORTH SHORE
* NEW BRUNSWICK FROM THE U.S./CANADA BORDER EASTWARD TO FORT
LAWRENCE AND FROM TIDNISH WESTWARD TO SHEDIAC
* NOVA SCOTIA FROM FORT LAWRENCE SOUTHWESTWARD TO DIGBY...MEDWAY
HARBOUR NORTHEASTWARD TO POINT TUPPER...AND AULDS COVE WESTWARD TO
TIDNISH
* PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 34.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.3 WEST. EARL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR. AN INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ARE EXPECTED IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF EARL
WILL PASS NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...AND WILL APPROACH SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT.
DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. EARL IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-
SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...BUT EARL IS EXPECTED REMAIN A LARGE
HURRICANE AS IT PASSES NEAR THE OUTER BANKS AND APPROACHES
SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
205 MILES...335 KM. THE NATIONAL OCEAN SERVICE STATION AT HATTERAS
NORTH CAROLINA RECENTLY REPORTED SIX-MINUTE MEAN WINDS OF 56 MPH...
90 KM/HR...AND A WIND GUST OF 66 MPH...107 KM/HR.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 955 MB...28.20 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WINDS...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING ALONG THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED IN THE OUTER BANKS DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS WILL LIKELY REACH THE COAST FROM
VIRGINIA NORTHWARD TO MASSACHUSETTS ON FRIDAY...AND SPREAD OVER THE
COAST OF MAINE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN
MASSACHUSETTS FRIDAY NIGHT.
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS
MUCH AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA OVER NORTH CAROLINA...AS WELL AS IN THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY.
STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE
GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA OVER MASSACHUSETTS.
ELSEWHERE WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA...STORM SURGE WILL
RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL.
NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
RAINFALL...EARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2
TO 4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES...OVER
PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA INCLUDING THE OUTER BANKS.
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5
INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND. ACCUMULATIONS OF
1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA
NORTHWARD ALONG THE IMMEDIATE MID-ATLANTIC COAST...AS WELL AS OVER
DOWNEAST MAINE.
SURF...LARGE SWELLS FROM EARL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE EAST COAST
OF THE UNITED STATES THROUGH FRIDAY...AND BEGIN TO SUBSIDE IN THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS OVERNIGHT. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE
DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND RIP CURRENTS.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
HURRICANE EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 35A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
200 AM EDT FRI SEP 03 2010
...CENTER OF EARL NOW EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS...TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS AFFECTING THE OUTER BANKS...
SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.6N 74.3W
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM ESE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 515 MI...830 KM SSW OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTH
CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE
SOUNDS
* WESTPORT MASSACHUSETTS EASTWARD AROUND CAPE COD TO HULL
MASSACHUSETTS INCLUDING MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET ISLAND
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE HENLOPEN
DELAWARE
* NOVA SCOTIA FROM MEDWAY HARBOUR TO DIGBY
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA TO WEST OF BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA
* NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO SANDY HOOK NEW
JERSEY...INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY SOUTH OF SLAUGHTER BEACH AND THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT
* THE COAST OF LONG ISLAND NEW YORK FROM FIRE ISLAND INLET EASTWARD
ON THE SOUTH SHORE AND PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR EASTWARD ON THE NORTH
SHORE
* NEW HAVEN CONNECTICUT TO WEST OF WESTPORT MASSACHUSETTS...
INCLUDING BLOCK ISLAND
* NORTH OF HULL MASSACHUSETTS TO THE MERRIMACK RIVER
* STONINGTON MAINE EASTWARD TO EASTPORT MAINE
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF THE MERRIMACK RIVER TO WEST OF STONINGTON MAINE
* THE COAST OF LONG ISLAND WEST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET ON THE SOUTH
SHORE AND WEST OF PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR ON THE NORTH SHORE
* NEW BRUNSWICK FROM THE U.S./CANADA BORDER EASTWARD TO FORT
LAWRENCE AND FROM TIDNISH WESTWARD TO SHEDIAC
* NOVA SCOTIA FROM FORT LAWRENCE SOUTHWESTWARD TO DIGBY...MEDWAY
HARBOUR NORTHEASTWARD TO POINT TUPPER...AND AULDS COVE WESTWARD TO
TIDNISH
* PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 34.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.3 WEST. EARL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR. AN INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ARE EXPECTED IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF EARL
WILL PASS NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...AND WILL APPROACH SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT.
DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. EARL IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-
SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...BUT EARL IS EXPECTED REMAIN A LARGE
HURRICANE AS IT PASSES NEAR THE OUTER BANKS AND APPROACHES
SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
205 MILES...335 KM. THE NATIONAL OCEAN SERVICE STATION AT HATTERAS
NORTH CAROLINA RECENTLY REPORTED SIX-MINUTE MEAN WINDS OF 56 MPH...
90 KM/HR...AND A WIND GUST OF 66 MPH...107 KM/HR.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 955 MB...28.20 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WINDS...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING ALONG THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED IN THE OUTER BANKS DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS WILL LIKELY REACH THE COAST FROM
VIRGINIA NORTHWARD TO MASSACHUSETTS ON FRIDAY...AND SPREAD OVER THE
COAST OF MAINE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN
MASSACHUSETTS FRIDAY NIGHT.
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS
MUCH AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA OVER NORTH CAROLINA...AS WELL AS IN THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY.
STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE
GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA OVER MASSACHUSETTS.
ELSEWHERE WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA...STORM SURGE WILL
RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL.
NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
RAINFALL...EARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2
TO 4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES...OVER
PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA INCLUDING THE OUTER BANKS.
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5
INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND. ACCUMULATIONS OF
1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA
NORTHWARD ALONG THE IMMEDIATE MID-ATLANTIC COAST...AS WELL AS OVER
DOWNEAST MAINE.
SURF...LARGE SWELLS FROM EARL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE EAST COAST
OF THE UNITED STATES THROUGH FRIDAY...AND BEGIN TO SUBSIDE IN THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS OVERNIGHT. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE
DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND RIP CURRENTS.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
0 likes
#neversummer
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 44 guests