ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm FIONA - Discussion

[plasticup]

sheesh, that big

[KWT]

That probably easily deserves a 40-50% IMO based on what its doing right now Hurakan...its pretty deep but then again so was Danielle at one point and that was a good deal further west.

Track should remain near the west/WNW for the next few days at least until Danielle start to recurve, then the uncertainties kick in with the pattern.

[Aric Dunn]

Its is for sure is another very impressive way right up there with what formed danielle. the wave with earl was a little better but this wave will likely develop as there is no inhibiting factors. there is some evidence for a broad circulation in surface obs and satellite and convection is on the increase so all ingredients are present so just needs some time to get some pressure falls and bingo.. would say about 48 hours for the next TD

That'd much quicker then what the models are currently suggesting, would probably make the idea of this one following the others much more likely IMO....but not a certainty by any means.

It doesn't look bad though does it and its at a fairly deep latitude so if the subtropical high was to strengthen and stay strong like it does on the CMC (the GFS weakens it a fair amount by 144hrs) then things get interesting.

Whilst I think recurvature is more likely again like Earl its not a done deal any imagination...remember that people!!

it actually seems to be organizing faster than i though it would from early this morning. convection is looking more a more curved and just looked at a close up loop there is clearly a developing circ. and the models are more likely to miss something like this with 2 other fully developed systems. if you remember from years past when there are multiple systems the global models seem to under due development of any additional systems and strength. I remember 2005 was particularly troublesome getting the global models to track the smaller systems. the GFS was barely even showing full fledged TS that were near larger hurricanes.

[Aric Dunn]

like with EARL they started with 20% when the wave first moved off the coast then once the convection persisted they upped it to 40% then straight to 90% once the convection lasted for 24 hours and surface obs showed a closed circ. So this will likely hit 40% maybe 50% at 8pm then more than that at the 2am if convection continues to increase. If convection really increases between now and 8pm we could see code red. it all depends of convection at this point.

[Vortmax1]

That probably easily deserves a 40-50% IMO based on what its doing right now

It is extremely impressive KWT. It has been looking great most of the day.
But it has just emerged so I think the NHC is going to watch it for a while (as usual) before getting too excited about the percentages.

[KWT]

Yeah they may well hold back on going above 30% till the outlook after this one but then again as Aric said it does seem to be following the same developmental route that Earl took, so it equally may well be put upto 40-50%...who knows!

Aric, yeah I agree it seems to be getting better organised faster then expected, hopefully that would allow it to tap into the tug that Danielle will exert as it pulls eastwards in a few days time and the upper trough finishes the job but we will see, long way to go yet

[fci]

Barely off the coast of Africa and the pundits are calling for a recurve already.

I guess I was napping when 7-14 day forecasts became automatic!

I think your sarcasm meter must be broken or malfunctioning. Go directly to your nearest Ace harware for an upgrade.

Actually the meter on my sarcasm meter was bent far to the right and completely functional

[Aric Dunn]

Yeah they may well hold back on going above 30% till the outlook after this one but then again as Aric said it does seem to be following the same developmental route that Earl took, so it equally may well be put upto 40-50%...who knows!

Aric, yeah I agree it seems to be getting better organised faster then expected, hopefully that would allow it to tap into the tug that Danielle will exert as it pulls eastwards in a few days time and the upper trough finishes the job but we will see, long way to go yet

well im not going to speculate that far out .. you know that... lol you all can battle with the models I will chime in only out to 3 to 4 days out at most.

[Plant grower]

So, is this the monster of the midway that could be a serious problem down the road for the caribbean and the gulf. Hope so even fishes get boring after a while,and I am ready for a real long tracked cane.It has been about two years now since the last time I had a serious cane to track you know!

[SoupBone]

Barely off the coast of Africa and the pundits are calling for a recurve already.

I guess I was napping when 7-14 day forecasts became automatic!

I think your sarcasm meter must be broken or malfunctioning. Go directly to your nearest Ace harware for an upgrade.

Actually the meter on my sarcasm meter was bent far to the right and completely functional

Apparently mine was broken!

What concerns me about 97L is that it apprears to be coming together quicker than what models show although that wouldn't necessarily be a bad thing for recurve theories. I just gotta keep telling these storms to feel the weakness..go toward the white light to the north.

[Typhoon_Willie]

This system does look impressive from the get go. I would think that the NHC upgrades to around 40 to 60% myself based on the growth of convection. Remember this is just my opinion and nothing else.

[KWT]

So, is this the monster of the midway that could be a serious problem down the road for the caribbean and the gulf. Hope so even fishes get boring after a while,and I am ready for a real long tracked cane.It has been about two years now since the last time I had a serious cane to track you know!

Too early to know but if I had to jump on a bandwagon right now, I'd say its probably not all that surprising to what I'd side with...

Looking very good indeed right now, looks like there is some sort of broad circulation down there, wonder what will happen over the next 24hrs!

[supercane]

Not a bad start based on microwave:


First SAB Dvorak classification out:
DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
26/1800 UTC 10.4N 20.1W T1.0/1.0 97L

[cycloneye]

What, 10.4N? That is way south of Best Track at 11.5N. Which is right?

[KWT]

Looking at the microwave I'd think possibly 10.5N is a decent starting point for this one, its pretty far south thats for sure though its also wayyyy east!

[HURAKAN]

Latest microwave

[KWT]

Circulation looks maybe a little stretched north-south from the looks of that Hurakan but not bad for an invest for sure!

[Praxus]

I don't get the correlation between "recurve" and "boring"...

You're kidding, right?

[HURAKAN]

nice pic

[HurricaneMaster_PR]