ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm FIONA - Discussion

[cycloneye]

This is the wave behind EARL.

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al972010.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201008261710
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 97, 2010, DB, O, 2010082612, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL972010
AL, 97, 2010082518, , BEST, 0, 112N, 150W, 15, 1011, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 850, 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010082600, , BEST, 0, 113N, 165W, 20, 1010, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 850, 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010082606, , BEST, 0, 114N, 175W, 20, 1010, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 850, 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010082612, , BEST, 0, 115N, 190W, 20, 1010, DB, 34
AL, 97, 2010082612, , BEST, 0, 115N, 190W, 20


ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

Thread where the members discussed about this system at Talking Tropics forum.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=109113&start=0

[CrazyC83]

Not even on the NHC site yet.

[KWT]

Looks like this will be a much slower system to evolve then the other two...the speed of this invest is key but it may well not track too differently to Earl.

Models don't seem to suggestive of this one doing much, staying weak mainly and going out to sea.

[HURAKAN]

It looks great at the moment

[Ivanhater]

My Fiona thread is now 97L

I'd wait on this before people start screaming fish like they have on the other ones

Earl has been moving faster than forecast and on the southern side of guidance. This also may take a bit to get going and could get some distance between Earl.

[Brent]

Looks better than Earl IMO.

[RL3AO]

Recuve. Next.










(sarcasm, folks)

[KWT]

Thats not fair RL3AO, thats meant to be my line!

Anyway it looks decent but the models aren't suggesting anything too quick to develop from this, but we may well see something get going in the Central Atlantic.

IMO the only way this threatens land is if it takes its sweet time developing, like a really long time not developing...otherwise it'll possibly be the same old story...

[CrazyC83]

I doubt this one is recurving, at least anytime soon (maybe if Earl speeds away, a second trough could open up later). However, I think it will struggle for a while, especially if Earl strengthens.

[HURAKAN]

923
ABNT20 KNHC 261729
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU AUG 26 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
DANIELLE...LOCATED ABOUT 630 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS...AND ON TROPICAL STORM EARL...LOCATED ABOUT 1735
MILES EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS
CENTERED ABOUT 450 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM SHOWS SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT
15 TO 20 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON EARL ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT32 KNHC
AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT2. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON EARL ARE
ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT22 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER
MIATCMAT2.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[cycloneye]

[Ivanhater]

Recuve. Next.










(sarcasm, folks)

Canadian disagrees



I know your just playing

[CrazyC83]

Quite the train there - Azores low (98L soon?), Danielle, Earl and 97L. But 97L/Fiona (unless the Azores low gets that name first) looks likely to have a fork in the tracks and the ridge will close its path. I smell a low rider here...

[OuterBanker]

Fiona, isn't that Shrek's wife?

[AdamFirst]

Future Fiona already on the horizon.

Fiona, isn't that Shrek's wife?

That's right.

Though the G storm wins the award for best hurricane name

[HURAKAN]

Fiona, isn't that Shrek's wife?

[plasticup]

I don't get the correlation between "recurve" and "boring"...

[ColinDelia]

Vorticity (orange) and divergence (yellow)

[trendal]

Fiona, isn't that Shrek's wife?

No!

Silly...she's my cat!

Hope this storm is like her size - rather small - and not like her temper!

[KWT]

Look how close it is though to Earl, I find it hard to believe this one won't get scooped up with Earl unless it doesn't develop barely if at all till the Caribbean and stays mainly a ITCZ feature...