WPAC: Ex-Tropical Storm LIONROCK (1006/07W)

[supercane]

WDPN31 PGTW 300300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 07W WARNING NR 12//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 07W (LIONROCK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
170 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED,
PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE
CURRENT POSITION IS SUPPORTED BY MSI AND A 292255Z 37V SSMIS
IMAGE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF
35 TO 45 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND KNES. TS 07W APPEARS TO BE
INTERACTING WITH THE TROPICAL LOW (92W) LOCATED ABOUT 460
NM NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. DUE TO THE WEAK INTERACTION, THE FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN
SHIFTED EAST AND EXTENDED TO TAU 72.
B. TS 07W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH TAU 24 BUT IS FORECAST TO TURN NORTHWARD AND THEN
NORTHWESTWARD AS IT TRACKS OVER LAND. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN POOR
AGREEMENT WITH WIDE DISAGREEMENT AMONGST THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC
AIDS DUE TO THE COMPLEX SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND POSSIBLE INTERACTION.
THE ECMWF AND JGSM ARE THE EASTERN MOST OUTLIERS AND INDICATE
SIGNIFICANT BINARY INTERACTION WITH 92W (NEAR TAIWAN). GFS AND
UKMO ARE THE WESTERN MOST OUTLIERS AND INDICATE A SHARP WESTWARD
TURN SUPPORTED BY THE LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER SOUTHEAST
CHINA. THIS FORECAST FAVORS WEAK INTERACTION WITH 92W AND IS
POSITIONED WEST OF THE CONSENSUS. TS 07W IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY
SLOWLY UP TO A PEAK OF 50 KNOTS BY TAU 24. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO DISSIPATE OVER LAND BY TAU 72 BUT THERE IS A HIGH DEGREE OF
UNCERTAINTY AND MARGINAL CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.//
NNNN

[supercane]

WTPQ21 RJTD 300300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1006 LIONROCK (1006)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 300300UTC 20.8N 116.6E FAIR
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 110NM
FORECAST
24HF 310300UTC 21.2N 118.3E 85NM 70%
MOVE E SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
45HF 010000UTC 22.3N 119.5E 160NM 70%
MOVE NE SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
69HF 020000UTC 24.0N 119.5E 220NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT =


WTSS20 VHHH 300145
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
AT 300000 UTC, TROPICAL STORM LIONROCK (1006) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 992 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL
MILES OF TWO ZERO POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (20.7 N) ONE
ONE SIX POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (116.5 E) AND IS FORECAST
TO MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST SLOWLY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 35 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 90 NAUTICAL MILES.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 310000 UTC
TWO ONE POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (21.1 N)
ONE ONE SEVEN POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (117.4 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 010000 UTC
TWO ONE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (21.8 N)
ONE ONE NINE POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (119.1 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 020000 UTC
TWO THREE POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (23.3 N)
ONE ONE NINE POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (119.4 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS.


WTKO20 RKSL 300000
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 6
NAME TS 1006 LIONROCK
ANALYSIS
POSITION 300000UTC 20.8N 116.6E
MOVEMENT NW 3KT
PRES/VMAX 992HPA 43KT
FORECAST
24HR
POSITION 310000UTC 22.0N 118.1E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
48HR
POSITION 010000UTC 23.4N 118.6E WITHIN 135NM
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 60KT
72HR
POSITION 020000UTC 25.0N 117.9E WITHIN 215NM
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 60KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

[supercane]

WTPQ21 RJTD 300600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1006 LIONROCK (1006) UPGRADED FROM TS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 300600UTC 20.8N 116.7E FAIR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 110NM
FORECAST
24HF 310600UTC 21.0N 118.5E 85NM 70%
MOVE E SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 010600UTC 22.3N 119.9E 160NM 70%
MOVE NE SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
72HF 020600UTC 24.1N 119.7E 220NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT =



Dvorak classifications:
SAB
DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
30/0232 UTC 21.2N 116.7E T3.5/3.5 LIONROCK
29/2032 UTC 20.7N 115.9E T3.0/3.0 LIONROCK

TXPN21 KNES 300315
SIMWIR

A. 07W (LIONROCK)
B. 30/0232Z
C. 21.2N
D. 116.7E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T3.5/3.5/D0.5/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/SSMI/SSMIS
H. REMARKS...VERY STRONG HARD CONVECTIVE BAND MEASURES ABOUT .8 ON LOG10
OR USING THE SHEAR METHOD IS WITHIN DG FOR DT OF 3.5 IN EACH METHOD. MET
IS SLOW TREND AT 3.5...PT IS 3.5 FT BASED ON CONCENSUS.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
29/2201Z 20.9N 116.6E SSMI
29/2255Z 21.0N 116.7E SSMIS

...GALLINA

JMA also at 3.5:
880
TCNA21 RJTD 300600 CCA
CCAA 30060 47644 KOMPASU(1007) 10233 11318 12244 235// 93208=
LIONROCK(1006) 09208 11167 13234 235// 90000=

6-hr vis loop:

[Chacor]

Could we get a change of topic title to STS? Thanks.

JMA continues to trend eastward with Lionrock, might well not make landfall and end up getting Fujiwhara'd into 92W and Kompasu.

[supercane]

WTSS20 VHHH 300445
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
AT 300300 UTC, TROPICAL STORM LIONROCK (1006) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 990 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL
MILES OF TWO ZERO POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (20.7 N) ONE
ONE SIX POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (116.7 E) AND IS FORECAST
TO MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST SLOWLY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 40 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 90 NAUTICAL MILES.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 310300 UTC
TWO ONE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (21.2 N)
ONE ONE SEVEN POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (117.6 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 010300 UTC
TWO TWO POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (22.0 N)
ONE ONE NINE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (119.2 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 020300 UTC
TWO THREE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (23.5 N)
ONE ONE NINE POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (119.4 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS.


TPPN10 PGTW 300610
A. TROPICAL STORM 07W (LIONROCK)
B. 30/0532Z
C. 21.0N
D. 117.1E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/06HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 49A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAP OF .50 ON
LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDS A DT OF 2.5. MET AGREES. PT YIELDS A 3.0.
DBO PT DUE TO SYSTEM HAVING SHOWED IMPROVING ORGANIZATION OVER
THE PAST 06 HOURS.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
UEHARA


WTKO20 RKSL 300600
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 7
NAME STS 1006 LIONROCK
ANALYSIS
POSITION 300600UTC 20.8N 116.7E
MOVEMENT ESE 1KT
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
FORECAST
24HR
POSITION 310600UTC 21.9N 118.4E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
48HR
POSITION 010600UTC 23.6N 118.8E WITHIN 135NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
72HR
POSITION 020600UTC 25.2N 117.9E WITHIN 215NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.


WTPQ20 BABJ 300700
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
STS LIONROCK 1006 (1006) INITIAL TIME 300700 UTC
00HR 21.0N 116.8E 985HPA 25M/S
30KTS 200KM
P12HR NE 3KM/H=

[supercane]

WTPN31 PGTW 300900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 07W (LIONROCK) WARNING NR 013
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300600Z --- NEAR 21.1N 116.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 025 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.1N 116.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 21.4N 117.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 21.8N 117.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 22.4N 118.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 23.3N 117.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 24.7N 116.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
300900Z POSITION NEAR 21.2N 117.0E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 07W (LIONROCK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 165 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HONG-KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT
02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM HAS SLIGHTLY DEEPENED. THE
SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE IN A DIRECT CYCLONE INTERACTION (DCI) WITH TD
09W TO THE NORTHEAST, ACCOUNTING FOR THE POLEWARD STORM MOTION,
CONTRARY TO THE SYNOPTIC STEERING FLOW. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED
ON MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE ANIMATION AND RADAR FIXES FROM HONG KONG.
THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SUPPORTED BY DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW,
RJTD, AND KNES. TS 07W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DRIFTING SLOWLY
NORTHWARD DUE TO DCI OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS BEFORE IT TURNS
NORTHWESTWARD AS IT GETS RELEASED FROM THE DCI AND A MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER EASTERN CHINA ASSUMES STEERING. THE AVAILABLE
NUMERIC GUIDANCE ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT DUE TO VARIABLE HANDLING OF
THE DCI. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300600Z IS 15 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 301500Z, 302100Z, 310300Z AND 310900Z. REFER TO
TYPHOON 08W (KOMPASU) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 09W (NINE) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW) FOR
SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//



Edited to include proper updated 09Z advisory

[senorpepr]

TCNA20 RJTD 300900 CCA
CCAA 30090 47644 LIONROCK(1006) 09208 11168 132/4 2//// 90000=
KOMPASU(1007) 10235 11315 122/4 2//// 93108=

Lionrock at 20.8N 116.8E. Being a 09Z SAREP, no intensity assigned.

[supercane]

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
30/0832 UTC 21.0N 116.8E T3.5/3.5 LIONROCK
30/0232 UTC 21.2N 116.7E T3.5/3.5 LIONROCK

TXPN21 KNES 300904
SIMWIR
A. 07W (LIONROCK)
B. 30/0832Z
C. 21.0N
D. 116.8E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T3.5/3.5/D0.5/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/AMSU
H. REMARKS...VERY LITTLE HAS CHANGED OVER LAST 6HRS AS BAND OF
CONVECTION CAN STILL BE BEST SEEN IN VISIBLE BANDING .85 ON LOG10 FOR DT
OF 3.5. SHEAR METHOD WOULD YIELD SAME NUMBER. MET IS 4.0. PT IS 3.5. FT
BASED ON DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
30/0558Z 21.0N 116.7E AMSU
...GALLINA
=

[oaba09]

I think it's interacting w/ Kompasu....Things are getting interesting...Anybody from Taiwan here? How's the weather there?

[windysocks]

I'm in Hong Kong, and it's deathly still and hot here....it certainly feels like a typhoon is coming, but I don't think this one is going to affect us much.

[Typhoon10]

I'm in Hong Kong, and it's deathly still and hot here....it certainly feels like a typhoon is coming, but I don't think this one is going to affect us much.

Welcome Windy, myself, Mesovortex and Typhoon Hunter also reside in HK.

Appears this one is heading up closer to Taiwan than us

[windysocks]

Nice to see there are other folk on the forum in Hong Kong. Disappointing season...not that I'm wishing floods and disruption on anyone, but I do like a good typhoon.

[zaqxsw75050]

Typhoon10, Mesovortex is my name on MSN

It is going to be interesting to see interaction between those storms out in NW Pacific. It is still hard to say where Lionrock will end up making landfall since the interaction between them can make the forecast complex.

[dexterlabio]

Could it be that Lionrock does not only interact with Namtheun, but also with Kompasu? This kind of situation is interesting. DCI also happened with Parma and Melor of 2009, where after Parma's weakening and Melor being at its peak strength, Parma appeared to have been sucked in towards Melor, then got back towards its original track westwards.

[senorpepr]

TCNA21 RJTD 301200 CCA
CCAA 30120 47644 KOMPASU(1007) 10237 11312 12244 240// 93107=
LIONROCK(1006) 09207 11168 13234 235// 90000=

20.7N 116.8E, T3.5/55 kt

[senorpepr]

WTPQ21 RJTD 301500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1006 LIONROCK (1006)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 301500UTC 20.6N 116.9E FAIR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 110NM
FORECAST
24HF 311500UTC 20.9N 118.5E 85NM 70%
MOVE E SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
45HF 011200UTC 22.1N 119.5E 160NM 70%
MOVE NE SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
69HF 021200UTC 23.7N 119.6E 220NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT =

[supercane]

WTPN31 PGTW 301500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 07W (LIONROCK) WARNING NR 014
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
301200Z --- NEAR 21.3N 117.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 045 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.3N 117.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 21.6N 117.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 21.9N 118.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 22.5N 118.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 23.5N 119.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 24.5N 118.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 25.0N 116.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
301500Z POSITION NEAR 21.4N 117.2E.
TROPICAL STORM 07W (LIONROCK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 175 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301200Z
IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 302100Z, 310300Z, 310900Z AND 311500Z.
REFER TO TYPHOON 08W (KOMPASU) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W (NINE) WARNINGS (WTPN33
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN



WDPN31 PGTW 301500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 07W WARNING NR 14//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 07W (LIONROCK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 175 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS STORM MOTION APPEARS TO BE DUE TO
DIRECT CYCLONE INTERACTION (DCI) WITH TROPICAL STORM 09W, LOCATED
JUST NORTH OF TAIWAN. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH TS 07W CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS
RELATIVELY ABATED. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A 301106Z AMSU-B
MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON A T3.5 DVORAK
ESTIMATE FROM PGTW, KNES AND RJTD. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
SYSTEM IS UNDER A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED RIDGE AXIS.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING.
B. TS 07W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH TAU 36 DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED DCI. AFTER TAU 36, TS 07W
WILL ABSORB THE REMNANTS OF TS 09W THEN BEGIN TO TURN WESTWARD AS A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER EASTERN CHINA ASSUMES STEERING OF THE SYSTEM.
DURING THIS COALITION PHASE, TS 07W WILL PEAK AT 70 KNOTS BEFORE IT
MAKES LANDFALL INTO EASTERN CHINA NEAR XIAMEN.
C. AFTER TAU 72, LIONROCK WILL DETERIORATE RAPIDLY AS IT
ENCOUNTERS RUGGED TERRAIN, THEN DISSIPATE BY TAU 96. THE AVAILABLE
NUMERIC GUIDANCE ALL AGREE ON AN EVENTUAL TURN INTO CHINA WITH
VARYING DEGREE OF TURN, WITH JGSM ON THE EXTREME RIGHT OF THE MODEL
ENVELOPE FAVORING THE WIDEST TRACK. THIS TRACK FORECAST IS TO THE
LEFT OF THE MEDIAN AND JTWC CONSENSUS.//
NNNN




WTSS20 VHHH 301345
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
THE TROPICAL STORM LIONROCK (1006) HAS INTENSIFIED INTO A
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 982
HECTOPASCALS. AT 301200 UTC, IT WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60
NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO ZERO POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (20.8
N) ONE ONE SEVEN POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (117.0 E) AND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE EAST SLOWLY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 50 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 45 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 120 NAUTICAL MILES.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 311200 UTC
TWO ONE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (21.2 N)
ONE ONE EIGHT POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (118.7 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 011200 UTC
TWO THREE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (23.0 N)
ONE ONE EIGHT POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (118.7 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 021200 UTC
TWO FOUR POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (24.1 N)
ONE ONE SIX POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (116.3 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS.

[supercane]

Latest IR:


KNES Dvorak:
TXPN21 KNES 301512
SIMWIR
A. 07W (LIONROCK)
B. 30/1332Z
C. 20.8N
D. 116.8E
E. THREE/MTSAT
F. T3.5/3.5/D0.5/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/SSMIS
H. REMARKS...CENTER IS 1/3 INTO DG RESULTING IN A DT OF 3.5. MET =
4.0 AND PT = 3.5. FT BASED ON DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
30/0902Z 20.9N 116.8E SSMIS
30/0915Z 20.9N 116.9E SSMI
...KIBLER
=

Microwave still shows shear with center on east side of convection:



ASCAT finally caught the storm:

[supercane]

Lionrock downgraded by JMA:

WTPQ21 RJTD 301800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1006 LIONROCK (1006) DOWNGRADED FROM STS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 301800UTC 20.8N 117.0E FAIR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 90NM
FORECAST
24HF 311800UTC 21.2N 118.8E 85NM 70%
MOVE E SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 011800UTC 22.3N 119.0E 160NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
72HF 021800UTC 23.4N 119.0E 220NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT =

[supercane]

WTPN31 PGTW 302100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 07W (LIONROCK) WARNING NR 015 RELOCATED
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
301800Z --- NEAR 20.4N 117.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.4N 117.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 20.5N 117.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 20.9N 117.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 21.8N 118.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 22.8N 119.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 24.4N 118.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 25.3N 115.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
302100Z POSITION NEAR 20.4N 117.4E.
TROPICAL STORM 07W (LIONROCK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 215 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) HAS BEEN RELOCATED SOUTHEAST OF THE PREVIOUS WARNING POSITION
BASED ON RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 301618Z
TRMM PASS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 55 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT
WITH A PGTW DVORAK T-NUMBER ESTIMATE OF 3.5 AND STRUCTURE EVIDENT IN
THE RECENT TRMM IMAGE. THE RELOCATION OF THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT EFFECT
THE OVERALL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. TS 07W IS STILL EXPECTED TO TRACK
GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU 48 AS ITS CIRCULATION INTERACTS
WITH THAT OF TS 09W. LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR MARGINAL INTENSIFICATION DURING THIS
PERIOD. THERAFTER, SUBTROPICAL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO THE
NORTH OF TS 07W AND TURN THE SYSTEM TOWARD LANDFALL IN SOUTHEASTERN
CHINA. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301800Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 310300Z, 310900Z, 311500Z AND 312100Z. REFER TO TYPHOON
08W (KOMPASU) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER
TO TROPICAL STORM 09W (NAMTHEUN) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES.//


RJTD location from 21Z sarep:
737
TCNA20 RJTD 302100 CCB
CCAA 30210 47644 KOMPASU(1007) 10249 11298 122/4 2//// 93112=
LIONROCK(1006) 09206 11174 142/4 2//// 91104=
NAMTHEUN(1008) 11258 11210 132/4 2//// 92709=

and from KNES:

TXPN21 KNES 302107
SIMWIR
A. 07W (LIONROCK)
B. 30/2032Z
C. 20.4N
D. 117.7E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T3.0/3.5/W0.5/06HRS
G. IR/EIR/SWIR/TMI/AMSU
H. REMARKS...DT=2.5 BASED ON .5 BANDING ON LOG10 SPIRAL. PT=2.5.
MET=3.0. BASED ON MET.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
30/1618Z 20.5N 117.9E TMI
30/1826Z 20.5N 117.7E AMSU
...SCHWARTZ
=