WPAC: Ex-Tropical Storm NAMTHEUN (1008/09W)

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WPAC: Ex-Tropical Storm NAMTHEUN (1008/09W)

#1 Postby StormingB81 » Sat Aug 28, 2010 9:27 am

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

The photo wont show up so I cannot tell you where it is at. But if I had to guess it is South Of Okinawa and East of Taiwan.
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#2 Postby supercane » Sat Aug 28, 2010 10:08 am

Don't see it listed on my computer.
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#3 Postby Chacor » Sat Aug 28, 2010 10:11 am

It went up earlier but appears to have been removed. An error, probably.
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#4 Postby StormingB81 » Sat Aug 28, 2010 10:39 am

Well Sorry about that I saw it and posted it. Maybe it will come back...lol
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#5 Postby supercane » Sat Aug 28, 2010 2:57 pm

92W is back, east of Taiwan

.92WINVEST.15kts-1010mb-239N-1223E

Image

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#6 Postby supercane » Sat Aug 28, 2010 4:04 pm

JMA following TS Lionrock and what their designating as 3 TDs (99W, 98W, and now 92W). 92W also listed as a TD in the 18Z analysis:
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 24N 125E NORTH SLOWLY.
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#7 Postby supercane » Sat Aug 28, 2010 10:10 pm

00Z JMA analysis:
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 25N 125E NORTH 10 KT.

From JTWC's significant weather advisory:
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR 24.8N 124.9E,
APPROXIMATELY 190 NM EAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS LOOSELY-ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION
PERSISTING OVER/NEAR A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). A 282159Z SSMIS 91H IMAGE SHOWS FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE
BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS NEAR THE
LLCC INDICATE 10-15 KNOT WINDS AND SLP NEAR 1006 MB. THE UPPER-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINAL WITH NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH A TUTT CELL LOCATED JUST NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.
THE PROXIMITY OF THE TUTT CELL IS HINDERING CONVECTION OVER THE
NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.

Image
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#8 Postby senorpepr » Sun Aug 29, 2010 3:23 am

WWJP25 RJTD 290600
WARNING AND SUMMARY 290600.
WARNING VALID 300600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1002 HPA
AT 21.1N 135.3E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 14 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXPECTED MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 300600UTC AT 22.9N 133.0E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK SEA OF JAPAN.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 36N 141E 42N 141E
47N 152E 55N 162E 60N 163E 60N 180E 45N 180E 40N 160E 39N 150E 36N
141E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1004 HPA AT 43N 127E NE 25 KT.
LOW 1006 HPA AT 32N 166E EAST 15 KT.
LOW 1010 HPA AT 56N 175E EAST 10 KT.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 25N 124E NW SLOWLY.
HIGH 1016 HPA AT 31N 142E WEST SLOWLY.
HIGH 1018 HPA AT 41N 153E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1018 HPA AT 47N 171E ENE 10 KT.
WARM FRONT FROM 43N 127E TO 44N 132E 44N 137E.
COLD FRONT FROM 43N 127E TO 38N 126E 33N 123E.
REMARKS.
TROPICAL STORM 1006 LIONROCK (1006) 998 HPA AT 20.2N 116.1E : SEE
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=
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#9 Postby senorpepr » Sun Aug 29, 2010 5:17 am

430
TXPN23 KNES 290957
SIMWIR

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (92W)

B. 29/0901Z

C. 25.0N

D. 124.2E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T1.5/1.5/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...5/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 2.5. MET IS A 1.0. PT IS
A 1.5. DT IS NOT CLEAR CUT SO FT BASED ON PT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...NEWHARD
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#10 Postby supercane » Sun Aug 29, 2010 11:05 am

JMA 12Z analysis:
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 25N 124E WNW SLOWLY.

JTWC significant tropical weather advisory:
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 24.8N
124.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 124.1E, APPROXIMATELY 195 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF OKINAWA, JAPAN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY
SHOWS THE BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER PARTIALLY EXPOSED
NORTHEAST OF THE MAIN CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
SYSTEM IS JUST TO THE EAST OF A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED RIDGE AXIS WITH
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. FURTHERMORE, AN ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTH AND
A TUTT CELL TO THE EAST ARE ENHANCING POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW. SEA LEVEL PRESSURE OBSERVATIONS FROM ISHIGAKI-JIMA,
APPROXIMATELY 65 NM TO THE SOUTH, INDICATES A 3 MB DROP IN THE PAST
24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 17 TO 22
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB.
DUE TO THE IMPROVED UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.[/b]
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#11 Postby supercane » Sun Aug 29, 2010 11:58 am

IR:
Image
Microwave:
Image
ASCAT:
Image
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#12 Postby supercane » Sun Aug 29, 2010 9:35 pm

WTPN21 PGTW 300000
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 180 NM RADIUS OF 25.7N 123.5E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 17 TO 22 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA AT 292330Z
INDICATE THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 25.7N 123.5E.
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 25.5N
124.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 25.7N 123.5E, APPROXIMATELY 225 NM
WEST OF OKINAWA, JAPAN. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED, WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH A LARGE CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE. JAPAN RADAR AND A 291800Z AMSR-E IMAGE INDICATE
FORMATIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS DECREASED AND
SHOWS SLIGHTLY IMPROVED OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY A TUTT CELL LOCATED
NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE QUASI-
STATIONARY AND MAY BE INTERACTING WEAKLY WITH TS 07W, THEREFORE,
THE TRACK IS UNCERTAIN AS THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN A WEAK
STEERING ENVIRONMENT. FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE IN THE
NEXT 24-36 HOURS BUT MORE UNLIKELY AS TS 08W APPROACHES THE
OKINAWA REGION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 17 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR
CANCELLED BY 310000Z.//
NNNN

Image

00Z JMA analysis:
WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1000 HPA
AT 26.2N 123.1E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHWEST SLOWLY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 92W

#13 Postby Typhoon10 » Sun Aug 29, 2010 9:39 pm

Question for all the experts, we have the 2 TS's and 92W. Is it normal or possible for 3 systems to merge or is it more likely they "push" each other away?
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 92W

#14 Postby theavocado » Sun Aug 29, 2010 9:49 pm

Typhoon10 wrote:Question for all the experts, we have the 2 TS's and 92W. Is it normal or possible for 3 systems to merge or is it more likely they "push" each other away?


They actually do attract to some degree. They don't so much merge, but the dominate one will suck in the less dominate one. Once a smaller one gets close to a larger one, the outflow from the larger one will either shear off the top of the smaller one or suffocate the outflow of the smaller one.

In this case, there is some indication that 92W and 08W are attracting 07W, and we are starting to see a hump to the West on the 07W track. It will probably be a "capture and release" situation like 19W and 20W from last year where it sucks in, but then goes back to it's original path.

When they really do suck in at close range, they start to orbit each other...see Fujiwhara Effect
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#15 Postby supercane » Sun Aug 29, 2010 9:56 pm

Great analysis! I agree that the flow about 92W is dominated by Lionrock (07W), but you would really call Lionrock "dominant" over Kompasu (08W)?
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 92W

#16 Postby Infdidoll » Sun Aug 29, 2010 10:19 pm

Thanks theavocado! Answered the questions I was beginning to have...Great analysis!
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#17 Postby supercane » Mon Aug 30, 2010 12:02 am

Latest ASCAT shows well-defined circulation with peak winds of 25kt (30kt if you count the orange flags):
Image

Dvorak classification up to T2.5, which would correspond to 35kt:
30/0232 UTC 26.0N 123.0E T2.5/2.5 92W
29/2032 UTC 25.4N 123.4E T2.0/2.0 92W

TXPN23 KNES 300309
SIMWIR

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (92W)
B. 30/0232Z
C. 26.0N
D. 123.0E
E. THREE/MTSAT
F. T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/SSMIS/TMI
H. REMARKS...WELL DEFINED BUT EXPOSED LLC CONTINUES TO DEVELOP
CONVECTION ON THE SOUTH SIDE THAT IS APPROX .5 DEGREES FROM LLC YIELDING
UNREPRESENTATIVE 3.0 FOR DT. BANDING IS .35 ON LOG10 BUT NEARLY ALL
WHITE FOR DT OF 2.0 OR 2.5. MET IS 2.5. PT IS 2.5. FT BASED ON CONSENSUS.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
29/2253Z 26.0N 123.4E SSMIS
29/2347Z 26.1N 123.2E TMI

...GALLINA

Image

Looks good enough for a TD upgrade by JTWC to me.
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#18 Postby supercane » Mon Aug 30, 2010 2:37 am

TPPN11 PGTW 300607
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 92W (NE OF TAIWAN)
B. 30/0532Z
C. 26.0N
D. 122.8E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/06HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 49A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAP OF .30 ON
LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDS A DT OF 2.0. PT AGREES. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
UEHARA
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#19 Postby supercane » Mon Aug 30, 2010 3:27 am

Looking at 09Z advisories for Kompasu (08W) looks like JTWC is going to upgrade this to 09W. Relevant excerpts:
WTPN32 PGTW 300900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 08W (KOMPASU) WARNING NR 007
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 08W
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
<snip>
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 07W (LIONROCK) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR
SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 09W (NINE) WARNINGS
(WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
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#20 Postby supercane » Mon Aug 30, 2010 3:38 am

And here it is:

WTPN33 PGTW 300900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W (NINE) WARNING NR 001
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300600Z --- NEAR 26.0N 122.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 26.0N 122.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 25.9N 122.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 25.8N 121.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 25.9N 121.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 26.6N 121.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
300900Z POSITION NEAR 26.0N 122.8E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 09W (NINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 90 NM
NORTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS A PARTIALLY
EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) NORTHEAST OF THE MAIN
CONVECTION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON A 300154Z ASCAT PASS
SHOWING 25-KNOT WIND BARBS ALONG THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE LLCC. TD
09W APPEARS TO BE EXPERIENCING DIRECT CYCLONE INTERACTION (DCI) WITH
TS 07W IN THE NORTHERN SOUTH CHINA SEA, ACCOUNTING FOR THE WESTWARD
DEFLECTION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO DRIFT SLOWLY WESTWARD DUE TO DCI THEN CURVE POLEWARD BY TAU 36 IN
RESPONSE TO A SECONDARY DCI WITH TY 08W WHICH AT THAT POINT WILL BE
PAST OKINAWA AND IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO TD 09W. TD 09W IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN AT TD INTENSITY BEFORE IT DISSIPATES AT TAU 48 AS ITS
FORMATIVE ENERGY GETS ABSORBED BY TY 08W. THE LIMITED NUMERIC
GUIDANCE ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS
REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 292351ZAUG 10 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT

Image

JMA 06Z analysis:
WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1000 HPA
AT 26.1N 122.7E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING WESTSOUTHWEST SLOWLY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
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