WPAC: Ex-Severe Tropical Storm MALOU (1009/10W)

[StormingB81]

Just recorded a gust of 38 MPH...

[StormingB81]

Looking at the Kadena weather page we are under a Tornado Advisory right now.


Plus thsi thing has slowed way down..was already supposed to be way past us..still south of us...wonder how the night will be and how close it will come..it has been an erratic track all day...


Edit again...The gusts are getting higher..ok by 1mph..39 mph now

[StormingB81]

Winds now gusting to over 43 mph...

[Infdidoll]

Yeah, I just saw the gust of 42.6 mph recorded. It looks REALLY ominous out there! Like something is trying to form right over us, doesn't it? Could this be the Invest 97W that I saw listed?

[StormingB81]

It could..They are side by side.....I am suprised how fast this storm was moving and how much it slowed down today....Its STILL south of us....and with Malou to teh west and 97W to the right...I think its gonna be a stormy night then sunday...I wonder when these winds were picking up if anyone was getting nervous since we just went back to TCCOR 4...LOL

[StormingB81]

How crazy does it look outside now..dark and light with an odd color...

[Infdidoll]

How crazy does it look outside now..dark and light with an odd color...

My husband was out taking pictures of it...It's that really odd yellowish color...the one you see in the Midwest right before a tornado. I'm wondering if that is dust that the winds have stirred up. Been fun to stand outside and watch it.

[Infdidoll]

Wow. Look at the convective flare up on radar right over us: http://www.goes.noaa.gov/guam/guamloops ... color.html

[StormingB81]

Ive been outside..lol Unfortunatly my wife has the camera in teh states..she comes abck next week so lets hope it stays quite till then..LOL I wonder have fast 97 is moving sicne these are both moving slow..how crazy would it be if it formed really quick and we have 2 storms on either side of us..lol

[StormingB81]

JMA believe it may get closer to Okinawa then first thought.....stormy nright ahead...

[StormingB81]

WOW IT TOOK A RIGHT TURN!!! Headed straight here..wonder what the winds are packing!!!

40-60 Knots...fun is about to happend!

[Infdidoll]

Okay, I haven't been watching the weather every second today because I thought Malou was going to go far to the south of us. Looks like that WAS Malou and it hit us after all and went with the original track they had forecasted.

JTWC shows it made a very sharp turn to the north (mad at me for the burrito comment yesterday)...but they still predicted that it was going to turn northwest before Okinawa. I don't think it has yet and I think it just went directly over us and is heading slightly more northward than northwest...but that's all strictly my opinion and observation from the ground. I think it broke sharply away from 97W causing it to go more towards the north.



Interesting...I was convinced the wind and rain we got this morning were from this storm and were all we were going to get. Winds were just about as strong as they were with Kompasu.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Infdidoll]

I think the worst part is past us now...but there are storms on the back end we could still be hit with.

[StormingB81]

Bck end is ussually the worst.....Looking at teh radar from Kadena we have some big storms headed this way in prolly about an hour or so this system is moving slow..and it is still south of us....JMA still says 40-60 knots...thats about 50-70 mph...lets hope power stays on..

[Chacor]

JMA agrees with the sudden northward jerk, and JMA's track appears to have its 09z position literally right off Okinawa.

[StormingB81]

If it still styas north and move the track over we maybe REALLY close to 50 knots..wonder if they may change the TCCOR.. we maybe close to 45 knots with gust at 65 (thats typhoon strength gust) these next couple of hours will be interesting

[Chacor]

JTWC:

REMARKS:
040900Z POSITION NEAR 25.5N 127.1E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 10W (MALOU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 70 NM
SOUTH OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) CENTERED BETWEEN TWO AREAS OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE LLCC
REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD CIRCULATION AREA. THERE IS FAIR
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLCC.
INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND
RJTD RANGING FROM 25 TO 35 KNOTS. NEARBY OBSERVATIONS ALSO INDICATE
PRESSURES OF 996 MB. TS 10W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE AND UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF DIRECT CYCLONE INTERACTION WITH A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
TO THE EAST. AN UPPER AIR SOUNDING FROM NAZE INDICATES EASTERLY FLOW
AND THAT THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE IS STILL STRONG. WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 HOURS TS 10W IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH THE AREA OF
CIRCULATION TO THE EAST AND TURN NORTHWESTWARD AS ONE CIRCULATION.
AN UPPER LEVEL MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER CHINA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
THE STEERING RIDGE AND TURN TS 10W NORTHWARD. AROUND TAU 72, TS 10W
WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND
EXPERIENCE INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AS WELL AS COOLER SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES, WHICH WILL CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN. TS
MALOU SHOULD REACH NORTH KOREA BY TAU 120. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL
MODELS ARE SPREAD IN THE TURN NORTHWARD, THEREFORE THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY IN THIS FORECAST TRACK. THIS FORECAST IS WESTWARD OF
MODEL CONSENSUS BASED ON THE UPPER LEVEL SOUNDINGS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040600Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
041500Z, 042100Z, 050300Z AND 050900Z.//

Of note: Another Fujiwhara expected, and another North Korea TC.

[Infdidoll]

Pressure has been steadily rising again and winds decreased to a steady 11-15 mph. I think the fun is over with this storm. They won't raise the TCOR if the storm has already passed.

[supercane]

WTPQ50 RJTD 041200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1009 MALOU (1009)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 041200UTC 27.0N 127.0E FAIR
MOVE N 20KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 220NM EAST 110NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 051200UTC 29.9N 125.9E 70NM 70%
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 061200UTC 32.1N 126.1E 160NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
72HF 071200UTC 34.2N 126.7E 220NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
96HF 081200UTC 36.8N 129.9E 280NM 70%
MOVE NE 09KT
120HF 091200UTC 38.6N 134.0E 375NM 70%
MOVE ENE 09KT =



WTPN33 PGTW 041500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 10W (MALOU) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
041200Z --- NEAR 26.9N 127.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 26.9N 127.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 28.5N 126.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 30.1N 126.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 31.4N 125.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 32.9N 125.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 36.1N 126.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 38.0N 129.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 39.1N 132.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
041500Z POSITION NEAR 27.3N 127.3E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 10W (MALOU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 35 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD
AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 041200Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 042100Z, 050300Z, 050900Z
AND 051500Z.//
NNNN



WDPN33 PGTW 041500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 10W WARNING NR 12//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 10W (MALOU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 35 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD
AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS DEVELOPING CENTRAL CONVECTION OVER A BROAD AREA OF
CIRCULATION. THE MAJORITY OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IS ON THE EASTERN
TO SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
EMBEDDED WITHIN A MONSOON GYRE-LIKE PATTERN. TS 10W APPEARS TO HAVE
MERGED WITH THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE PREVIOUSLY LOCATED TO THE EAST.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE PGTW AND RJTD SATELLITE FIX
ALONG WITH RADAR FROM JAPAN. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE
PGTW, RJTD, AND KNES DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 30 TO 35 KNOTS.
TS 10W IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF DIVERGENCE ALOFT, ALTHOUGH AN UPPER
LEVEL MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPEARS TO BE CAUSING SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM, LIMITING POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
HOWEVER, EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THE FORECAST HAS TRENDED EASTWARD BECAUSE TS 10W HAS TRACKED
NORTHWARD WITH THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE WEAKENING SOONER THAN
EXPECTED. HOWEVER, THE FUNDAMENTAL PHILOSOPHY OF THE TRACK AND
INTENSITY FORECASTS REMAINS THE SAME.
B. TS 10W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE. AN UPPER AIR OBSERVATION
FROM NAZE INDICATES MID-LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALSO SHOWING THE
STEERING RIDGE HAS WEAKENED. TS MALOU IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD. AROUND TAU 48, TS 10W WILL WEAKEN AS IT
INTERACTS WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND TRACKS OVER COOLER
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE YELLOW SEA. THE SYSTEM SHOULD REACH
SOUTH KOREA AFTER TAU 72.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TS MALOU IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING AS IT
TRACKS OVER LAND AND AS IT FURTHER INTERACTS WITH THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES. THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT, BUT
DEPICT VARYING RECURVATURE TIMING IN RESPONSE TO THE WEAKENING
STEERING RIDGE. THIS FORECAST IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE EGRR AND
ECMWF MODELS, WHICH CURVE THE SYSTEM INTO THE WESTERLIES LATER THAN
THE OTHER MODELS.//
NNNN

[supercane]

WTPQ20 RJTD 041500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1009 MALOU (1009)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 041500UTC 27.2N 126.8E FAIR
MOVE NNW 13KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 220NM EAST 110NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 051500UTC 30.1N 125.9E 70NM 70%
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 061200UTC 32.1N 126.1E 160NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
69HF 071200UTC 34.2N 126.7E 220NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT =