WPAC: Ex-Severe Tropical Storm MALOU (1009/10W)

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Latest ASCAT:

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WTPQ50 RJTD 041800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1009 MALOU (1009)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 041800UTC 27.5N 126.5E FAIR
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 240NM EAST 120NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 051800UTC 30.4N 125.9E 85NM 70%
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 061800UTC 32.9N 126.6E 160NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
72HF 071800UTC 35.0N 129.3E 220NM 70%
MOVE NE 08KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
96HF 081800UTC 37.9N 135.9E 280NM 70%
MOVE ENE 15KT
120HF 091800UTC 38.6N 145.1E 375NM 70%
MOVE E 18KT =




TXPN25 KNES 041631
SIMWIR
A. 10W (MALOU)
B. 04/1501Z
C. 27.4N
D. 127.1E
E. THREE/MTSAT
F. T2.5/2.5/S0.0/24HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS...SYSTEM HAS SHOWN LITTLE CHANGE OVER 24HRS WITH DT=2.5
BASED ON 5/10 BANDING. SOME INTERACTION WITH ISLANDS. MET AND PAT ALSO
2.5. FT BASED ON DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...SWANSON
=

936
TCNA21 RJTD 041800
CCAA 04180 47644 MALOU(1009) 12276 11265 14226 225// 93413=

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WTPN33 PGTW 042100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 10W (MALOU) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
041800Z --- NEAR 28.1N 126.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 28.1N 126.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 29.7N 125.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 31.1N 125.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 33.0N 125.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 34.5N 125.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 36.8N 127.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 38.1N 129.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 38.9N 132.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
042100Z POSITION NEAR 28.5N 126.0E.
TROPICAL STORM 10W (MALOU) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 320 NM SOUTH OF
CHEJU ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASED
DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH LOW LEVEL BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE SYSTEM FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST. A 041723Z TRMM 89H MICROWAVE PASS SUPPORTS
THE CURRENT POSITION WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. A 041305Z ASCAT PASS, AS
WELL AS THE CONVECTIVE ASYMMETRY OF THE SYSTEM, INDICATE STRONGER
WINDS ALONG THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, RJTD, AND KNES OF 35 KNOTS AS WELL AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT PASS SHOWING 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS AT THE SYSTEM
CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS TS 10W IS IN A REGION OF
ENHANCED DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH ITS PROXIMITY TO THE
DIFFLUENT REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER TAIWAN. TS 10W IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A WESTERN
EXTENSION OF A LOW TO MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE. TS MALOU IS FORECAST
TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 36, THEN BEGIN
TO TURN POLEWARD AS AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH ERODES THE
RIDGE. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 36,
THEN WEAKEN AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW NEAR
TAU 48. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL SOUTH OF SEOUL,
SOUTH KOREA, AND RAPIDLY WEAKEN AS IT BECOMES ABSORBED INTO THE
BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY. AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT. THIS FORECAST FAVORS A TRACK NORTH AND WEST OF MODEL
CONSENSUS, BASED ON UPPER AIR ANALYSIS OF THE STEERING RIDGE AND THE
PREVIOUS JTWC FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041800Z
IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050300Z, 050900Z, 051500Z AND 052100Z.//
NNNN



239
TCNA20 RJTD 042100
CCAA 04210 47644 MALOU(1009) 12281 11261 142/4 2//// 93309=

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WTPQ20 RJTD 042100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1009 MALOU (1009)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 042100UTC 27.8N 126.2E FAIR
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 240NM EAST 120NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 052100UTC 30.6N 125.9E 70NM 70%
MOVE N 07KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 061800UTC 32.9N 126.6E 160NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
69HF 071800UTC 35.0N 129.3E 220NM 70%
MOVE NE 08KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT =

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WTPQ50 RJTD 050000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1009 MALOU (1009)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 050000UTC 28.1N 126.1E FAIR
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 240NM EAST 120NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 060000UTC 31.1N 126.1E 85NM 70%
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 070000UTC 33.5N 127.3E 160NM 70%
MOVE NNE 07KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
72HF 080000UTC 35.8N 130.4E 220NM 70%
MOVE NE 09KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
96HF 090000UTC 38.1N 137.2E 280NM 70%
MOVE ENE 15KT
120HF 100000UTC 38.6N 146.5E 375NM 70%
MOVE E 18KT =



831
TCNA21 RJTD 050000
CCAA 05000 47644 MALOU(1009) 12286 11263 14224 225// 93510=

Exposed center on vis:


TXPN25 KNES 042200
SIMWIR
A. 10W (MALOU)
B. 04/2101Z
C. 28.4N
D. 124.6E
E. THREE/MTSAT
F. T2.5/2.5/S0.0/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/SWIR/AMSRE
H. REMARKS...SHEAR PATTERN YIELDS DT 3.0 WHILE BANDING GIVES DT 2.0. DT
OF 2.0 SUPPORTED BY RECENT CIMSS SATCON ESTIMATE OF 2.2 AT 17Z. MET AND
PT ARE 2.5. FT BASED ON MET.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
04/1723Z 28.4N 124.9E AMSRE
...SIMKO
=

[supercane]

WTPN33 PGTW 050300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 10W (MALOU) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
050000Z --- NEAR 28.3N 124.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 28.3N 124.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 29.6N 124.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 31.3N 123.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 33.1N 124.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 34.6N 124.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 36.7N 127.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 37.9N 129.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 38.6N 133.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
050300Z POSITION NEAR 28.6N 124.5E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 10W (MALOU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 320 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CHEJU ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 050000Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050900Z, 051500Z, 052100Z
AND 060300Z.//

[supercane]

WDPN33 PGTW 050300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 10W WARNING NR 14//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 10W (MALOU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 320 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CHEJU ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH DEEP CONVECTION FLARING APPROXIMATELY 125 NM TO THE NORTHEAST.
THIS CONVECTION MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH STRONGER GRADIENT FLOW ALONG
THE NORTHEASTERN FLANK OF THE LLCC, OR A POSSIBLE DEVELOPING LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BROAD GYRE-LIKE PATTERN. MSI
AND A 042317Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE PASS CONFIRM THE LOCATION OF
THE EXPOSED LLCC WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THE PEAK INTENSITY HAS BEEN WEAKENED SLIGHTLY FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST, HOWEVER THE FUNDAMENTAL PHILOSOPHY OF THE TRACK
AND INTENSITY FORECASTS REMAINS THE SAME.
B. TS 10W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A LOW TO MID-LEVEL EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL
STEERING RIDGE. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY AND
TRACK POLEWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. AFTER TAU
48, TS 10W IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN DUE TO INTERACTION WITH
THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT DIRECT
CYCLONE INTERACTION (DCI) WITH THE DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
NORTHEAST OF TS 10W WILL CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO LOOP CYCLONICALLY
BEFORE CONTINUING TO TRACK NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD.
C. TS 10W IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL NORTH OF KUNSAN AB, SOUTH
KOREA BETWEEN TAU 48 AND TAU 72. AFTER TAU 72, TS 10W WILL BE
ABSORBED BY THE BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GFS AND GFDN
WHICH LOSE THE SYSTEM AS IT WEAKENS AND TRACKS WESTWARD IN THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW. THIS FORECAST FAVORS A TRACK NORTH AND WEST OF MODEL
CONSENSUS, BASED ON UPPER AIR ANALYSIS OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL
STEERING RIDGE AND THE PREVIOUS JTWC FORECAST. //

To me, on vis system appears to be meandering, maybe slight E motion past few hours.

[supercane]

WTPQ20 RJTD 050300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1009 MALOU (1009)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 050300UTC 28.3N 126.0E FAIR
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 240NM EAST 120NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 060300UTC 31.3N 126.0E 85NM 70%
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
45HF 070000UTC 33.5N 127.3E 160NM 70%
MOVE NNE 07KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
69HF 080000UTC 35.8N 130.4E 220NM 70%
MOVE NE 09KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT =



473
TCNA20 RJTD 050300
CCAA 05030 47644 MALOU(1009) 12292 11263 142/4 2//// 90112=

TXPN25 KNES 050315
SIMWIR
A. 10W (MALOU)
B. 05/0232Z
C. 28.0N
D. 125.0E
E. THREE/MTSAT
F. T2.0/2.5/W0.5/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS
H. REMARKS... LESS THAN 1.25 DEGREE SHEAR FOR DT=1.5. MET=1.5 WITH
PT=2.0. FT BASED ON PT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...SALEMI
=

[phwxenthusiast]

disappointing this storm is...

just amazing how RP keeps dodging all these storms lol... how many landfalls do we have so far, 3??

[supercane]

WTPQ50 RJTD 050600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1009 MALOU (1009)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 050600UTC 28.6N 125.9E FAIR
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 240NM EAST 120NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 060600UTC 31.2N 126.0E 85NM 70%
MOVE N 07KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 070600UTC 33.9N 127.6E 160NM 70%
MOVE NNE 08KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
72HF 080600UTC 36.5N 130.9E 220NM 70%
MOVE NE 09KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
96HF 090600UTC 38.7N 137.9E 280NM 70%
MOVE ENE 15KT
120HF 100600UTC 38.7N 148.2E 375NM 70%
MOVE E 20KT =



339
TCNA21 RJTD 050600
CCAA 05060 47644 MALOU(1009) 12294 11263 14224 225// 93608=

[Chacor]

More than one circulation in this...

[supercane]

That has been Malou's problem throughout much of its life.

[supercane]

SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 10W (MALOU) WARNING NR 016
WTPN33 PGTW 051500
1. TROPICAL STORM 10W (MALOU) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
051200Z --- NEAR 30.5N 126.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 005 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 30.5N 126.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 31.8N 126.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 33.0N 126.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 34.5N 126.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 36.2N 127.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 38.0N 132.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 38.9N 140.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 39.1N 150.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
051500Z POSITION NEAR 30.8N 126.2E.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051200Z IS 21 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 052100Z, 060300Z, 060900Z AND 061500Z.
//
BT
#0001
NNNN

[supercane]

WTPQ50 RJTD 051200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1009 MALOU (1009)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 051200UTC 29.8N 126.0E FAIR
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 240NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 061200UTC 32.1N 126.1E 85NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 071200UTC 34.4N 127.2E 160NM 70%
MOVE NNE 06KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
72HF 081200UTC 37.0N 131.0E 220NM 70%
MOVE NE 10KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
96HF 091200UTC 39.1N 138.9E 280NM 70%
MOVE ENE 16KT
120HF 101200UTC 38.7N 150.8E 375NM 70%
MOVE E 23KT =



WTPN33 PGTW 051500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 10W (MALOU) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
051200Z --- NEAR 30.5N 126.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 005 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 30.5N 126.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 31.8N 126.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 33.0N 126.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 34.5N 126.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 36.2N 127.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 38.0N 132.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 38.9N 140.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 39.1N 150.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
051500Z POSITION NEAR 30.8N 126.2E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 10W (MALOU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 180 NM
SOUTH OF CHEJU ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051200Z IS 21
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 052100Z, 060300Z, 060900Z AND 061500Z.//
NNNN



WDPN33 PGTW 051500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 10W WARNING NR 16//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 10W (MALOU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 180 NM
SOUTH OF CHEJU ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD
AREA OF CIRCULATION, RESEMBLING A MONSOON GYRE PATTERN, WITH
MULTIPLE SMALLER VORTICES EMERGING FROM THE CENTER AND ROTATING
CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE GYRE. A 051037Z 37GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE
ALSO DEPICTS
A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION WRAPPING
AROUND FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN TO NORTHERN PERIPHERY. TS 10W HAS
MAINTAINED AN INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM
PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD. TS MALOU IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA OF
HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE.
ADDITIONALLY, AN UPPER LEVEL, MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE NORTH HAS
ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS FORECAST HAS BEEN RELOCATED FROM A SMALLER LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER TO THE BROAD CIRCULATION CENTER SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING. BASED ON THE NEW POSITIONING, THE
FORECAST TRACK HAS SHIFTED EAST.
B. TS 10W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE. IT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING
NORTHWARD, BEGIN TO ROUND THE STEERING RIDGE AFTER TAU 24, AND
BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AFTER MAKING
LANDFALL OVER SOUTH KOREA. DUE TO FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS,
TS 10W IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. BY TAU 24,
TS MALOU SHOULD WEAKEN DUE TO THE INTERACTION WITH LAND AND
INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES. AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH
THE NORTHWARD TRACK, HOWEVER THE MODELS RECURVE THE SYSTEM EASTWARD
AT DIFFERENT TIMES. THE ECMWF, WBAR, AND GFS MODELS RECURVE THE
SYSTEM SOONER. THE GFDN MODEL IS AN OUTLIER THAT TRACKS THE SYSTEM
WESTWARD. THIS FORECAST IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE JGSM AND UKMO
MODELS, WHICH RECURVE TS 10W AFTER REACHING SOUTH KOREA.
C. BY TAU 72, TS 10W IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ABSORBED BY THE
BAROCLINC ZONE OVER THE SEA OF JAPAN AND BECOME A FULLY
EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM.//
NNNN




TXPN25 KNES 051549
SIMWIR
A. 10W (MALOU)
B. 05/1501Z
C. 30.9N
D. 125.7E
E. THREE/MTSAT
F. T3.0/3.0/D0.5/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/SWIR/AMSU
H. REMARKS...SYSTEM SHOW SLIGHT INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION BUT CENTER
SLIGHTLY ELONGATED. DT=3.0 BASED ON 6/10 WRAP. MET=3.5 BUT PAT 3.0. FT
BASED ON PT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
05/1246Z 30.4N 125.5E AMSU
...SWANSON
=

Best it's ever looked on IR:


ASCAT whiffed.

[supercane]

WTPQ50 RJTD 051800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1009 MALOU (1009)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 051800UTC 30.5N 126.0E FAIR
MOVE N 07KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 240NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 061800UTC 33.3N 126.7E 85NM 70%
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
48HF 071800UTC 36.1N 130.0E 160NM 70%
MOVE NE 10KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
72HF 081800UTC 37.6N 136.5E 250NM 70%
MOVE ENE 14KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
96HF 091800UTC 38.5N 144.7E 280NM 70%
MOVE E 16KT
120HF 101800UTC 38.4N 155.1E 375NM 70%
MOVE E 20KT =



796
TCNA21 RJTD 051800
CCAA 05180 47644 MALOU(1009) 12305 11264 14324 225// 90103=

[supercane]

WTKO20 RKSL 051800
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 14
NAME TS 1009 MALOU
ANALYSIS
POSITION 051800UTC 30.8N 126.1E
MOVEMENT N 6KT
PRES/VMAX 994HPA 41KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 060600UTC 32.0N 126.2E WITHIN 55NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
24HR
POSITION 061800UTC 33.4N 126.4E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
36HR
POSITION 070600UTC 34.7N 127.3E WITHIN 110NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
48HR
POSITION 071800UTC 36.2N 129.7E WITHIN 135NM
PRES/VMAX 995HPA 39KT
60HR
POSITION 080600UTC 37.2N 133.6E WITHIN 160NM
PRES/VMAX 998HPA 35KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

[supercane]

WTPN33 PGTW 052100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 10W (MALOU) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
051800Z --- NEAR 31.6N 126.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 31.6N 126.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 33.2N 126.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 34.9N 127.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 36.3N 128.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 37.3N 131.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 38.3N 136.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 38.4N 143.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
052100Z POSITION NEAR 32.0N 126.2E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 10W (MALOU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 110 NM
SOUTH OF CHEJU ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE (IR) IMAGERY CONTINUES
TO SHOW MULTIPLE LOW LEVEL VORTICES CYCLONICALLY ROTATING INTO THE
MAIN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY, AS WELL AS A
051717Z TRMM 85 GHZ MICROWAVE PASS, AND A 061726Z AMSU 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE PASS, REVEAL A MAJORITY OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IS BEING
SHEARED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE MAIN LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON
THE LOW LEVEL CENTER EVIDENT IN THESE MICROWAVE IMAGES. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 35 TO 45 KNOTS
FROM PGTW, RJTD, AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS ENHANCED
POLEWARD OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE NORTH
OF THE SYSTEM. TS 10W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING POLEWARD ALONG THE
WESTERN EXTENT OF A LOW-TO MID LEVEL SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE. TS
10W IS FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS CHEJU ISLAND AND INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY
DUE TO FAVORABLE OUTFLOW CONDITIONS. NEAR TAU 24, TS 10W WILL MAKE
LANDFALL IN SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH KOREA AND WEAKEN AS IT BEGINS TO BE
ABSORBED INTO THE BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY. BY TAU 48, TS MALOU IS
FORECAST TO COMPLETE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GFDN AND NOGAPS
WHICH TRACK THE SYSTEM ERRONEOUSLY NORTHWESTWARD AND POLEWARD,
RESPECTIVELY, IN THE LATER TAUS. THIS FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051200Z IS
21 FEET. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051800Z IS 21 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 060300Z, 060900Z, 061500Z AND 062100Z.//

[supercane]

TXPN25 KNES 052112
SIMWIR
A. 10W (MALOU)
B. 05/2032Z
C. 31.1N
D. 126.1E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T3.0/3.0/D0.5/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/SWIR/TMI/AMSU
H. REMARKS...DT=3.0 BASED ON SHEAR PATTERN WITH LOW LEVEL CENTER WITHIN
.5 DEGREE OF CONVECTION. PT=3.5. MET=3.5. FT BASED ON DT. EARLIER
MICROWAVE FIXES IMPLY LOW LEVEL CENTER IS SOUTHWEST OF CONVECTION.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
05/1717Z 31.0N 125.8E TMI
05/1719Z 31.0N 126.0E AMSU
05/1855Z 31.0N 126.0E TMI
...SCHWARTZ
=

[supercane]

WTPQ50 RJTD 060000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1009 MALOU (1009)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 060000UTC 31.3N 126.0E FAIR
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 240NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 070000UTC 34.3N 127.3E 85NM 70%
MOVE NNE 08KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
48HF 080000UTC 37.1N 132.2E 180NM 70%
MOVE NE 12KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
72HF 090000UTC 37.8N 138.7E 250NM 70%
MOVE E 13KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
96HF 100000UTC 38.1N 147.5E 280NM 70%
MOVE E 17KT
120HF 110000UTC 38.6N 156.7E 375NM 70%
MOVE E 18KT =



050
TCNA21 RJTD 060000
CCAA 06000 47644 MALOU(1009) 12313 11260 14234 230// 93308=