WPAC: Ex-Severe Tropical Storm MALOU (1009/10W)

[supercane]

NRL added 93W near Chuuk SE of Guam.

93WINVEST.15kts-1010mb-80N-1518E

Link on NRL page

[StormingB81]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

Another one pops up. It showed up with the red X though SO i dunno where it is or if it is a mistake I dont know.

[StormingB81]

My Appoligies, And I looked through the threads and didn;t see it. although I just woke up and it was 7 am..lol Ill beat myself up dont worry

[supercane]

No worries. Not much there now as seen on vis:

[supercane]

00Z JMA analysis:
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1010 HPA NEAR 10N 146E ALMOST STATIONARY.

NWS Guam from satellite interpretation message:
A WEAK CIRCULATION IS CENTERED JUST NORTHWEST OF CHUUK NEAR 10N150E.
CONVERGING WINDS NEAR THE CIRCULATION ARE GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS JUST NORTH OF CHUUK WITHIN 80 MILES
OF A LINE FROM 8N147E TO 10N153E.

and AFD:
.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
IR IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION REDEVELOPING NEAR A WEAK CIRCULATION
JUST TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF CHUUK (JTWC 93W INVEST). GFS
INITIALIZED THIS FEATURE FAIRLY WELL AND KEEPS SHOWERS JUST TO
THE NORTH. HOWEVER...THE CIRCULATION REMAINS ALMOST STATIONARY SO
SHOWERS COULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP TO THE SOUTH.


More convection than this time yesterday:

Microwave:

[supercane]

From JTWC's significant weather advisory, updated at 06Z 08/30/10:
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 8.8N 147.0E,
APPROXIMATELY 300 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH POORLY ORGANIZED
CONVECTION. SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A SURGE OF SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
INTO TO THE SYSTEM OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
REVEALS A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH THAT IS HELPING WITH
EQUATORIAL OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, THIS IS OFFSET BY A TROUGH TO THE
NORTHWEST THAT IS IMPINGING THE POLEWARD VENTILATION. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. DUE TO THE MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.

[StormingB81]

Fro NWS Guam: I am guesing it is from 93W

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
654 AM CHST WED SEP 1 2010

GUZ001-PMZ151-312300-
GUAM-GUAM COASTAL WATERS-
654 AM CHST WED SEP 1 2010

.NOW...
THROUGH 900 AM...AN AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN HAS DEVELOPED
OVER ALL OF GUAM AND THE WATERS SOUTH OF GUAM. THE AREA WAS MOVING
NORTHWARD AT AROUND 20 MPH. RAINFALL RATES OF UP TO AN INCH PER
HOUR CAN BE EXPECTED. RUSH HOUR MOTORISTS WILL BE CHALLENGED IN
MANY LOCATIONS BY REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN HEAVY RAIN...ALONG WITH
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS AND IN LOW LYING AREAS. MARINERS COULD
EXPERIENCE VISIBILITIES AT OR BELOW ONE NAUTICAL MILE.

$$

MCELROY

[StormingB81]

Now this is moving Nortwest. If it moves in the Same water as Kompasu wouldnt that hinder any development because Kompasu already shurned the waters or not it can still developin ths waters?

[StormingB81]

UPGRADED TO FAIR:

I hope this is right Ive been confused on these..lol

(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.1N
145.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 142.8E, APPROXIMATELY 135 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION BEGINNING TO ORGANIZE AROUND A DEVELOPING
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAT IS EVIDENT IN 312336Z
METOPA MICROWAVE IMAGE. A PARTIAL 312337Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS A 10 TO
15 KNOT LLCC WITH WEAK SUPPORTING WESTERLIES TO THE SOUTH. DROPSONDE
DATA COLLECTED OVER THE PAST 08 HOURS INDICATES AN OUTERMOST
PRESSURE OF 1010 TO 1013 MB. PGUA IS CURRENTLY REPORTING
WINDS FROM THE SOUTH AT 10 KNOTS AND SEA LEVEL PRESSURE AT 1013 MB.
UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. OUTFLOW HAS
IMPROVED ON THE EQUATORWARD SIDE WITH THE PASSAGE OF A TROPICAL
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH CELL TO THE WEST. EQUATORWARD VENTING IS
ALSO VIGOUROUS AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS LOW TO MODERATE. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.

[supercane]

93WINVEST.15kts-1010mb-128N-1428E.



Not listed on JMA's 00Z analysis, but on the map shows a 1012 mb low.

[supercane]

From JTWC's updated significant tropical weather advisory:
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.1N
145.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 142.8E, APPROXIMATELY 135 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION BEGINNING TO ORGANIZE AROUND A DEVELOPING
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAT IS EVIDENT IN 312336Z
METOPA MICROWAVE IMAGE. A PARTIAL 312337Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS A 10 TO
15 KNOT LLCC WITH WEAK SUPPORTING WESTERLIES TO THE SOUTH. DROPSONDE
DATA COLLECTED OVER THE PAST 08 HOURS INDICATES AN OUTERMOST
PRESSURE OF 1010 TO 1013 MB. PGUA IS CURRENTLY REPORTING
WINDS FROM THE SOUTH AT 10 KNOTS AND SEA LEVEL PRESSURE AT 1013 MB.
UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. OUTFLOW HAS
IMPROVED ON THE EQUATORWARD SIDE WITH THE PASSAGE OF A TROPICAL
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH CELL TO THE WEST. EQUATORWARD VENTING IS
ALSO VIGOUROUS AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS LOW TO MODERATE. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.

000
FXPQ60 PGUM 010652
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
452 PM CHST WED SEP 1 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
DEVELOPING TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 93W IS CENTERED NEAR 14N142E
BASED ON RADAR AND SATELLITE. RADAR ALSO SHOWS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
ACROSS THE MARIANAS...WITH SEVERAL N-S BANDS OF SHOWERS FORMING
SOUTH AND EAST OF GUAM. WITH THE CIRCULATION CENTERED WNW OF
GUAM...LOCAL SURFACE WINDS ARE FROM THE SOUTH...BACKING SLOWLY TO
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE OVERNIGHT AS 93W MOVES BRISKLY AWAY
TO THE NW. SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...AND EASTERLY TRADE
WINDS SHOULD BE BACK BY MORNING.

[StormingB81]

If this moved NW I stl dont see it amounting to anything since it will follow the same path as KONPASU...that being said I have been wrong before and I am no expert..lol But I believe I have heard before if 1 tropical cyclone follows another then one behind it ussually doesnt last long..can anyone confirm or correct me on this? Thank you

[StormingB81]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/

According to NOAA good percentage for 93 to develop..lets see what happends

[StormingB81]

http://www.maybagyo.com/t2kgraphsat.gif

This site says 50% it will be he next system based on models going NW...If it keeps going that way Okinawa has another one to watch. See what happends

[Infdidoll]

JTWC upgrades to GOOD and puts out a tropical cyclone formation alert:

WTPN21 PGTW 011500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.6N 142.3E TO 20.4N 136.3E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 17 TO 22 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 011200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 15.2N 142.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
09 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.8N
142.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 142.1E, APPROXIMATELY 190 NM
NORTHWEST OF GUAM. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
INCREASED CENTRAL CONVECTION OVER A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) AND A 010941Z SSMIS MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWS
IMPROVED LOW LEVEL INFLOW. THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 17 TO
22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007
MB. DUE TO THE IMPROVED UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND INCREASE IN
CENTRAL CONVECTION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
021500Z.//
NNNN

[StormingB81]

Since this storm is looking good and now has a TCFA issued on it. WHat does the shear and everything look liek especially to since it is moving NW toward the general area of OKinawa.

[StormingB81]

JMA already has it as a Tropical Depression

TROPPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA
AT 16.3N 139.7E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 15KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

[Infdidoll]

Official name should be <female dog>-Slap Part II

[Chacor]

10W already? That was quick.

[StormingB81]

There goes my long weekend..lol