000
WTNT43 KNHC 030236
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM FIONA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082010
1100 PM AST THU SEP 02 2010
FIONA REMAINS A SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONE...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER EXPOSED TO THE NORTH OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 45 KT...BASED ON A DVORAK T-NUMBER OF 3.0 FROM
TAFB AND SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM EARLIER TODAY. THE NORTH-
NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG DURING THE NEXT
24-36 HOURS. TYPICALLY ONE WOULD EXPECT SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING DUE
TO THE ANTICIPATED SHEAR. HOWEVER...FIONA HAS BEEN WITHSTANDING THE
SHEAR DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS...SO ONLY GRADUAL WEAKENING IS
FORECAST UNTIL DISSIPATION. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE.
FIONA IS NOW MOVING NORTHWARD OR 355/14 KT. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED
TO TURN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND
HURRICANE EARL TO ITS NORTHWEST. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NEAR THE
MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF FIONA
IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR OVER BERMUDA IN AROUND 36 HOURS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 03/0300Z 26.9N 66.8W 45 KT
12HR VT 03/1200Z 28.7N 66.7W 40 KT
24HR VT 04/0000Z 30.8N 65.9W 40 KT
36HR VT 04/1200Z 32.7N 64.8W 35 KT
48HR VT 05/0000Z 34.8N 63.6W 35 KT
72HR VT 06/0000Z 39.5N 60.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
96HR VT 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
ATL: FIONA - Advisories
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Advisories
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Advisories
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FIONA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 14A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082010
200 AM AST FRI SEP 03 2010
...FIONA MOVING NORTHWARD AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED...
SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.5N 66.8W
ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ON BERMUDA WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS IN THIS CASE.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO BERMUDA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FIONA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.8 WEST. FIONA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR. THIS MOTION IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST EXPECTED BY THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF FIONA IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR
BERMUDA LATER THIS EVENING OR EARLY SATURDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...
165 KM...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH BERMUDA
BY LATE THIS EVENING OR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
RAINFALL...STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE ON BERMUDA.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
TROPICAL STORM FIONA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 14A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082010
200 AM AST FRI SEP 03 2010
...FIONA MOVING NORTHWARD AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED...
SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.5N 66.8W
ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ON BERMUDA WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS IN THIS CASE.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO BERMUDA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FIONA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.8 WEST. FIONA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR. THIS MOTION IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST EXPECTED BY THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF FIONA IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR
BERMUDA LATER THIS EVENING OR EARLY SATURDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...
165 KM...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH BERMUDA
BY LATE THIS EVENING OR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
RAINFALL...STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE ON BERMUDA.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Advisories
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FIONA ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082010
500 AM AST FRI SEP 03 2010
...FIONA MOVING NORTHWARD...NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.1N 66.7W
ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ON BERMUDA WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS IN THIS CASE.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO BERMUDA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FIONA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.7 WEST. FIONA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR. THIS MOTION IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST EXPECTED BY THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF FIONA IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR
BERMUDA LATER THIS EVENING OR EARLY SATURDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH BERMUDA
BY LATE THIS EVENING OR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
RAINFALL...STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE ON BERMUDA.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
TROPICAL STORM FIONA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082010
0900 UTC FRI SEP 03 2010
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ON BERMUDA WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS IN THIS CASE.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO BERMUDA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.1N 66.7W AT 03/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 11 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 75NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 150SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.1N 66.7W AT 03/0900Z
AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.5N 66.8W
FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 29.8N 66.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 32.0N 65.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 75SE 0SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 34.2N 63.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 36.4N 62.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 41.5N 58.5W...DISSIPATING
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.1N 66.7W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/1500Z
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
TROPICAL STORM FIONA DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082010
500 AM AST FRI SEP 03 2010
FIONA REMAINS A SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH DEEP CONVECTION
DISPLACED OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KT IS BASED ON A SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATE OF T3.0/45 KT FROM TAFB...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY A 3-HR
AVERAGE ADT OF T3.3/51 KT FROM UW-CIMSS.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 010/11 KT...WHICH IS BASED MAINLY ON
CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE
PREVIOUS TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST REASONINGS. FIONA IS FORECAST
TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD TODAY AND THEN TURNS
NORTHEASTWARD BY SATURDAY...WITH THE CENTER OF FIONA EXPECTED TO
PASS NEAR OR OVER BERMUDA IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS IN THE MIDDLE OF
THE NHC MODEL SUITE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 03/0900Z 28.1N 66.7W 45 KT
12HR VT 03/1800Z 29.8N 66.1W 40 KT
24HR VT 04/0600Z 32.0N 65.0W 40 KT
36HR VT 04/1800Z 34.2N 63.7W 35 KT
48HR VT 05/0600Z 36.4N 62.0W 35 KT
72HR VT 06/0600Z 41.5N 58.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
96HR VT 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
TROPICAL STORM FIONA ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082010
500 AM AST FRI SEP 03 2010
...FIONA MOVING NORTHWARD...NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.1N 66.7W
ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ON BERMUDA WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS IN THIS CASE.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO BERMUDA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FIONA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.7 WEST. FIONA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR. THIS MOTION IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST EXPECTED BY THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF FIONA IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR
BERMUDA LATER THIS EVENING OR EARLY SATURDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH BERMUDA
BY LATE THIS EVENING OR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
RAINFALL...STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE ON BERMUDA.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
TROPICAL STORM FIONA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082010
0900 UTC FRI SEP 03 2010
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ON BERMUDA WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS IN THIS CASE.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO BERMUDA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.1N 66.7W AT 03/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 11 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 75NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 150SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.1N 66.7W AT 03/0900Z
AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.5N 66.8W
FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 29.8N 66.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 32.0N 65.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 75SE 0SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 34.2N 63.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 36.4N 62.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 41.5N 58.5W...DISSIPATING
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.1N 66.7W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/1500Z
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
TROPICAL STORM FIONA DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082010
500 AM AST FRI SEP 03 2010
FIONA REMAINS A SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH DEEP CONVECTION
DISPLACED OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KT IS BASED ON A SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATE OF T3.0/45 KT FROM TAFB...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY A 3-HR
AVERAGE ADT OF T3.3/51 KT FROM UW-CIMSS.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 010/11 KT...WHICH IS BASED MAINLY ON
CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE
PREVIOUS TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST REASONINGS. FIONA IS FORECAST
TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD TODAY AND THEN TURNS
NORTHEASTWARD BY SATURDAY...WITH THE CENTER OF FIONA EXPECTED TO
PASS NEAR OR OVER BERMUDA IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS IN THE MIDDLE OF
THE NHC MODEL SUITE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 03/0900Z 28.1N 66.7W 45 KT
12HR VT 03/1800Z 29.8N 66.1W 40 KT
24HR VT 04/0600Z 32.0N 65.0W 40 KT
36HR VT 04/1800Z 34.2N 63.7W 35 KT
48HR VT 05/0600Z 36.4N 62.0W 35 KT
72HR VT 06/0600Z 41.5N 58.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
96HR VT 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Advisories
WTNT33 KNHC 031155
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FIONA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082010
800 AM AST FRI SEP 03 2010
...AIR FORCE RESERVE AIRCRAFT REACHES FIONA...
SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.5N 66.7W
ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.82 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED...WITHIN ABOUT 24 HOURS IN THIS CASE.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO BERMUDA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FIONA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.7 WEST. FIONA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR. THIS MOTION IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST EXPECTED BY THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF FIONA IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR
BERMUDA LATER THIS EVENING OR EARLY SATURDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. PRELIMINARY REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER INDICATE THAT FIONA COULD BE STARTING TO WEAKEN. SOME
GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE LATEST CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER IS 1010 MB...29.82 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH BERMUDA
BY LATE THIS EVENING OR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
RAINFALL...STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE ON BERMUDA.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FIONA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082010
800 AM AST FRI SEP 03 2010
...AIR FORCE RESERVE AIRCRAFT REACHES FIONA...
SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.5N 66.7W
ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.82 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED...WITHIN ABOUT 24 HOURS IN THIS CASE.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO BERMUDA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FIONA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.7 WEST. FIONA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR. THIS MOTION IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST EXPECTED BY THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF FIONA IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR
BERMUDA LATER THIS EVENING OR EARLY SATURDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. PRELIMINARY REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER INDICATE THAT FIONA COULD BE STARTING TO WEAKEN. SOME
GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE LATEST CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER IS 1010 MB...29.82 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH BERMUDA
BY LATE THIS EVENING OR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
RAINFALL...STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE ON BERMUDA.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA
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295
WTNT43 KNHC 031442
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM FIONA DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082010
1100 AM AST FRI SEP 03 2010
AIRCRAFT DATA FROM THIS MORNING SHOWED PEAK SFMR WINDS OF 39 KT AND
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 48 KT...SUPPORTING AN INITIAL WIND SPEED OF
ABOUT 40 KT. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT CONVECTION HAS BECOME
RATHER THIN NEAR THE CENTER...WITH THE CIRCULATION OF FIONA ALSO
TAKING ON AN ELONGATED APPEARANCE. SLOW WEAKENING SEEMS LIKELY
GIVEN THE PERSISTENT NORTHERLY SHEAR AND MODEL GUIDANCE IS ON GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THE NHC FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN
UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. ALL MODELS WEAKEN THE SYSTEM
DRAMATICALLY IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...AND DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED
AFTER THAT TIME. GIVEN THE LATEST SATELLITE PRESENTATION...IT WOULD
NOT BE A SURPRISE IF FIONA DECAYED FASTER THAN THE FORECAST BELOW.
FIONA HAS TURNED TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND IS MOVING 020/11 KT. THE
MODELS ARE WELL CLUSTERED NOW ON BRINGING THE CENTER NEAR BERMUDA
IN ABOUT 18 HOURS. THEREAFTER...SOME ACCELERATION IS ANTICIPATED AS
THE STORM ENCOUNTERS INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THE NHC
FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND THE DYNAMICAL MODEL
CONSENSUS.
THE INITIAL WIND RADII HAVE BEEN REDUCED BASED ON AIRCRAFT
DATA...AND STILL MIGHT BE A LITTLE GENEROUS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 03/1500Z 29.0N 66.4W 40 KT
12HR VT 04/0000Z 30.6N 65.7W 35 KT
24HR VT 04/1200Z 32.7N 64.6W 35 KT
36HR VT 05/0000Z 35.2N 63.1W 30 KT
48HR VT 05/1200Z 38.1N 61.2W 25 KT
72HR VT 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
WTNT43 KNHC 031442
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM FIONA DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082010
1100 AM AST FRI SEP 03 2010
AIRCRAFT DATA FROM THIS MORNING SHOWED PEAK SFMR WINDS OF 39 KT AND
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 48 KT...SUPPORTING AN INITIAL WIND SPEED OF
ABOUT 40 KT. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT CONVECTION HAS BECOME
RATHER THIN NEAR THE CENTER...WITH THE CIRCULATION OF FIONA ALSO
TAKING ON AN ELONGATED APPEARANCE. SLOW WEAKENING SEEMS LIKELY
GIVEN THE PERSISTENT NORTHERLY SHEAR AND MODEL GUIDANCE IS ON GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THE NHC FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN
UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. ALL MODELS WEAKEN THE SYSTEM
DRAMATICALLY IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...AND DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED
AFTER THAT TIME. GIVEN THE LATEST SATELLITE PRESENTATION...IT WOULD
NOT BE A SURPRISE IF FIONA DECAYED FASTER THAN THE FORECAST BELOW.
FIONA HAS TURNED TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND IS MOVING 020/11 KT. THE
MODELS ARE WELL CLUSTERED NOW ON BRINGING THE CENTER NEAR BERMUDA
IN ABOUT 18 HOURS. THEREAFTER...SOME ACCELERATION IS ANTICIPATED AS
THE STORM ENCOUNTERS INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THE NHC
FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND THE DYNAMICAL MODEL
CONSENSUS.
THE INITIAL WIND RADII HAVE BEEN REDUCED BASED ON AIRCRAFT
DATA...AND STILL MIGHT BE A LITTLE GENEROUS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 03/1500Z 29.0N 66.4W 40 KT
12HR VT 04/0000Z 30.6N 65.7W 35 KT
24HR VT 04/1200Z 32.7N 64.6W 35 KT
36HR VT 05/0000Z 35.2N 63.1W 30 KT
48HR VT 05/1200Z 38.1N 61.2W 25 KT
72HR VT 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139067
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ATL: FIONA - Advisories
000
WTNT33 KNHC 031748
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FIONA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 16A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082010
200 PM AST FRI SEP 03 2010
...FIONA CONTINUES MOVING TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST...SHOWING SIGNS OF
WEAKENING...
SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.5N 65.9W
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO BERMUDA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FIONA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.9 WEST. FIONA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO WITH
SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ANTICIPATED ON SUNDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF FIONA SHOULD BE NEAR BERMUDA EARLY
SATURDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS... AND FIONA
COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY LATE SATURDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB...29.83 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH BERMUDA
BY LATE THIS EVENING OR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
RAINFALL...STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE ON BERMUDA.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
WTNT33 KNHC 031748
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FIONA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 16A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082010
200 PM AST FRI SEP 03 2010
...FIONA CONTINUES MOVING TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST...SHOWING SIGNS OF
WEAKENING...
SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.5N 65.9W
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO BERMUDA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FIONA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.9 WEST. FIONA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO WITH
SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ANTICIPATED ON SUNDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF FIONA SHOULD BE NEAR BERMUDA EARLY
SATURDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS... AND FIONA
COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY LATE SATURDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB...29.83 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH BERMUDA
BY LATE THIS EVENING OR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
RAINFALL...STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE ON BERMUDA.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139067
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ATL: FIONA - Advisories
000
WTNT43 KNHC 032035
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM FIONA DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082010
500 PM AST FRI SEP 03 2010
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT FIONA IS WEAKENING. THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION IS BECOMING DISTORTED WITH MULTIPLE SWIRLS...AND ONLY A
MEAGER AMOUNT OF CONVECTION REMAINS. SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS ARE
DROPPING...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 35 KT. FURTHER
WEAKENING IS LIKELY DUE TO STRONG NORTHERLY SHEAR. DISSIPATION IS
PROBABLE BY SUNDAY...IF NOT SOONER...OR THE SYSTEM COULD DEGENERATE
INTO A REMNANT LOW AS EARLY AS TONIGHT IF CONVECTION DOES NOT
REDEVELOP SOON. THE CHANCES OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS
OCCURRING IN BERMUDA APPEAR TO BE DROPPING.
FIONA HAS TURNED A LITTLE MORE TO THE RIGHT AND IS NOW MOVING
030/12. A SMALL SHIFT IN THE GUIDANCE HAS OCCURRED...WITH ALL OF THE
MODELS NOW SHOWING THE CENTER PASSING JUST TO THE EAST OF BERMUDA.
THIS APPEARS TO BE DUE TO FIONA BECOMING A RATHER SHALLOW SYSTEM
THAT IS BEING PRIMARILY STEERED BY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AROUND EARL.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE
PREVIOUS ONE...BUT STILL PASSES CLOSE TO BERMUDA. GLOBAL MODELS
INDICATE THAT THE WEAK SYSTEM SHOULD INCREASE ITS FORWARD SPEED AS
IT MOVES AWAY FROM BERMUDA AND DECAYS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 03/2100Z 30.0N 65.5W 35 KT
12HR VT 04/0600Z 31.6N 64.7W 30 KT
24HR VT 04/1800Z 33.6N 63.5W 25 KT
36HR VT 05/0600Z 36.4N 61.7W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48HR VT 05/1800Z 39.6N 59.6W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72HR VT 06/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
WTNT43 KNHC 032035
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM FIONA DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082010
500 PM AST FRI SEP 03 2010
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT FIONA IS WEAKENING. THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION IS BECOMING DISTORTED WITH MULTIPLE SWIRLS...AND ONLY A
MEAGER AMOUNT OF CONVECTION REMAINS. SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS ARE
DROPPING...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 35 KT. FURTHER
WEAKENING IS LIKELY DUE TO STRONG NORTHERLY SHEAR. DISSIPATION IS
PROBABLE BY SUNDAY...IF NOT SOONER...OR THE SYSTEM COULD DEGENERATE
INTO A REMNANT LOW AS EARLY AS TONIGHT IF CONVECTION DOES NOT
REDEVELOP SOON. THE CHANCES OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS
OCCURRING IN BERMUDA APPEAR TO BE DROPPING.
FIONA HAS TURNED A LITTLE MORE TO THE RIGHT AND IS NOW MOVING
030/12. A SMALL SHIFT IN THE GUIDANCE HAS OCCURRED...WITH ALL OF THE
MODELS NOW SHOWING THE CENTER PASSING JUST TO THE EAST OF BERMUDA.
THIS APPEARS TO BE DUE TO FIONA BECOMING A RATHER SHALLOW SYSTEM
THAT IS BEING PRIMARILY STEERED BY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AROUND EARL.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE
PREVIOUS ONE...BUT STILL PASSES CLOSE TO BERMUDA. GLOBAL MODELS
INDICATE THAT THE WEAK SYSTEM SHOULD INCREASE ITS FORWARD SPEED AS
IT MOVES AWAY FROM BERMUDA AND DECAYS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 03/2100Z 30.0N 65.5W 35 KT
12HR VT 04/0600Z 31.6N 64.7W 30 KT
24HR VT 04/1800Z 33.6N 63.5W 25 KT
36HR VT 05/0600Z 36.4N 61.7W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48HR VT 05/1800Z 39.6N 59.6W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72HR VT 06/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
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- Contact:
195
WTNT33 KNHC 032339
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIONA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082010
800 PM AST FRI SEP 03 2010
...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS FIONA WEAKER...NOW A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION...
SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.9N 65.2W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1013 MB...29.91 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR BERMUDA.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNING IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIONA
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.2 WEST. FIONA
IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH
SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
DEPRESSION OR REMNANT LOW IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR EAST OF
BERMUDA EARLY SATURDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR
...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AND FIONA
COULD DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW TONIGHT OR TOMORROW MORNING.
THE LATEST CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS 1013 MB...29.91 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 INCH OR LESS ARE
POSSIBLE ON BERMUDA.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BRENNAN
WTNT33 KNHC 032339
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIONA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082010
800 PM AST FRI SEP 03 2010
...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS FIONA WEAKER...NOW A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION...
SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.9N 65.2W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1013 MB...29.91 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR BERMUDA.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNING IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIONA
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.2 WEST. FIONA
IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH
SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
DEPRESSION OR REMNANT LOW IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR EAST OF
BERMUDA EARLY SATURDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR
...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AND FIONA
COULD DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW TONIGHT OR TOMORROW MORNING.
THE LATEST CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS 1013 MB...29.91 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 INCH OR LESS ARE
POSSIBLE ON BERMUDA.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BRENNAN
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
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- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
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- Contact:
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIONA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082010
0300 UTC SAT SEP 04 2010
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNING IN EFFECT.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.4N 64.9W AT 04/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 12 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1013 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.4N 64.9W AT 04/0300Z
AT 04/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.9N 65.2W
FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 33.0N 64.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 35.2N 62.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 38.2N 60.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.
FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.4N 64.9W
THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BRENNAN
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082010
0300 UTC SAT SEP 04 2010
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNING IN EFFECT.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.4N 64.9W AT 04/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 12 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1013 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.4N 64.9W AT 04/0300Z
AT 04/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.9N 65.2W
FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 33.0N 64.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 35.2N 62.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 38.2N 60.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.
FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.4N 64.9W
THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BRENNAN
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