ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm GASTON - Discussion

[tolakram]

Near the peak of the hurricane season, wave passing south of Hispaniola, little chance of development.

Speaks volumes.

[Sanibel]

The islands disrupted the inflow and broke up what weak structure it had. I think that could be it for the Gaston remnant Low (maybe not though):

[Steve]

>>Speaks volumes.

Volumes of what? Sighs of relief for those of us who don't have to scramble to evacuate and get stuff in order? You better believe it. If you are making some kind of comment on the "season", I'm all ears and open to discussion.

[tolakram]

>>Speaks volumes.

Volumes of what? Sighs of relief for those of us who don't have to scramble to evacuate and get stuff in order? You better believe it. If you are making some kind of comment on the "season", I'm all ears and open to discussion.

It speaks volumes about what we don't know about forecasting tropical storms. The way this season was advertised this is exactly the type of disturbance you would expect to develop. I'm glad it's not, I hope it continues, and I hope we learn why and how to better forecast in the future.

Like it or not seasonal forecasts that portend hyper activity, that doesn't come true, seriously undermines the ability of forecasters to get people to listen the next time. There is no fault here, just a hope we can get better at it. And it's a La Nina year, so my words could be meaningless if the season really does go hyper in a few weeks. This could also develop closer to Cuba or in the gulf, and could still be a real threat to the Yucatan and the gulf coast.

I really hope it doesn't develop, and I don't think it will, but I'm no forecaster, only an observer who can't help but think we've missed something important. Years ago we had no clue about La Nina and El Nino and how they effected the tropics. Now we think we know, but maybe we latched onto the wrong sign. Maybe La Nina almost always includes _____ but in the years it doesn't it offers no increased threat of tropical activity. Fill in the blank.

I've probably doomed us to another storm now, as I'm almost always, but not quite, 100% wrong.

[5KOVERLIBOR]

>>Speaks volumes.

Volumes of what? Sighs of relief for those of us who don't have to scramble to evacuate and get stuff in order? You better believe it. If you are making some kind of comment on the "season", I'm all ears and open to discussion.

Not to aggravate a tense subject, but the 2010 season was prognosticated by many elements of the forecasting community to rival 2005. We were on "O" at this point in 2005. We're seven storms behind. Seven of fifteen. As for what a failing system in the ECAR in the second week of Sep means, I will leave that to the far more talented minds, like yourself, to hash out.

[vbhoutex]

>>Speaks volumes.

Volumes of what? Sighs of relief for those of us who don't have to scramble to evacuate and get stuff in order? You better believe it. If you are making some kind of comment on the "season", I'm all ears and open to discussion.

Not to aggravate a tense subject, but the 2010 season was prognosticated by many elements of the forecasting community to rival 2005. We were on "O" at this point in 2005. We're seven storms behind. Seven of fifteen. As for what a failing system in the ECAR in the second week of Sep means, I will leave that to the far more talented minds, like yourself, to hash out.

I have two comments to make here.
1. I have yet to see anyone predict this season would/will be like 2005. Hyperactive, yes, 2005, no.
2. The subject of this thread is Ex-Gaston. Let's get back to discussing that.

[AussieMark]

when will Ex-Gaston have his last rights read

[chrisnnavarre]

I really don't think this cat is done yet....maybe when he passes just south of Jamaica regenerates, and bombs into a major and then starts moving past western Cuba they can rename him Igor (that is if he's really a open wave now)...get it.... Ivan/Igor.

[SouthFLTropics]

when will Ex-Gaston have his last rights read

At the rate we are going we won't see Bones declare it is dead until it buries itself into Central America...

SFT

[SouthFLTropics]

I really don't think this cat is done yet....maybe when he passes just south of Jamaica regenerates, and bombs into a major and then starts moving past western Cuba they can rename him Igor (that is if he's really a open wave now)...get it.... Ivan/Igor.

Igor already has already been born in the East Atlantic...

SFT

[AussieMark]

I really don't think this cat is done yet....maybe when he passes just south of Jamaica regenerates, and bombs into a major and then starts moving past western Cuba they can rename him Igor (that is if he's really a open wave now)...get it.... Ivan/Igor.

Igor is off the coast of Africa

[chrisnnavarre]

I really don't think this cat is done yet....maybe when he passes just south of Jamaica regenerates, and bombs into a major and then starts moving past western Cuba they can rename him Igor (that is if he's really a open wave now)...get it.... Ivan/Igor.

Igor is off the coast of Africa

Oh, great I can sleep better now...I'm just glad it's not 2011 because Katia runs chills up my back too...

[5KOVERLIBOR]

>>Speaks volumes.

Volumes of what? Sighs of relief for those of us who don't have to scramble to evacuate and get stuff in order? You better believe it. If you are making some kind of comment on the "season", I'm all ears and open to discussion.

Not to aggravate a tense subject, but the 2010 season was prognosticated by many elements of the forecasting community to rival 2005. We were on "O" at this point in 2005. We're seven storms behind. Seven of fifteen. As for what a failing system in the ECAR in the second week of Sep means, I will leave that to the far more talented minds, like yourself, to hash out.

I have two comments to make here.
1. I have yet to see anyone predict this season would/will be like 2005. Hyperactive, yes, 2005, no.
2. The subject of this thread is Ex-Gaston. Let's get back to discussing that.

I will refrain from posting about this on this thread following my defense here.

From "EXTENDED-RANGE FORECAST OF ATLANTIC SEASONAL HURRICANE ACTIVITY AND LANDFALL STRIKE PROBABILITY FOR 2010" authored by Gray and Klotzbach, issued 2 June 2010. Page 30

"The best analog years that we could find for the 2010 hurricane season were 1958, 1966, 1969, and 2005. We anticipate that 2010 seasonal hurricane activity will have activity in line with what was experienced in the average of these four years. We believe that 2010 will thus be a very active hurricane season."

Perhaps the language there suggests that isolating 2005 is in error, but 2005 has certainly been highlighted by numerous organizations as at least a partial analog through June of this year. CSU themselves use 2005 as a partial analog. So, you have now seen 2010 seasonal predictions explicitly using 2005 as an analog, and CSU at that.

That is all on this here.

[jlauderdal]

time to shutdown this thread and send it to the archives

[Comanche]

I also remember vividly, many talking about a rival to 2005 in forecasting this year.

[rog]

Gaston, is done stick a fork in him and lets move on to Igor.

[psyclone]

uh 1958, another analog mentioned, only had 10 storms. does it not count?

[AussieMark]

surprised none of the analogs were developing La Nina years like this year is.

I thought 1998 would be the better analog to use

[cycloneye]

time to shutdown this thread and send it to the archives

We always let the threads in this forum for a few days after the last Tropical Weather Outlooks or last advisories are issued,before they go to the archieves.

[ColinDelia]

It's a little early to know how the season will end but 15 named storms would be a top 10 year. 16 would be tied for 6th. So we'll just have to see. A top 10 season seems quite realistic at this point.

My one and only post on this as it's off-topic but feel free to start another thread.