ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm GASTON - Discussion

[Shuriken]

Maybe it's just my lyin' eyes deceiving me, but there appears to have been a mid-level circulation associated with the convection south of Haiti. You can see it twisting as the anvils thin a bit: http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurr.html

[Sanibel]

No lack of convection. Relocation over Haiti?

[chrisnnavarre]

Last visual before dark maybe indicated circulation just south of Haiti with convection building over the center of the country. Lots of convection I might add...

[KWT]

Certainly is alot of convection there if nothing else, though I can't help but feel it maybe possibly because of Hispaniola itself that is helping to cause lift and spark cells off.

[fasterdisaster]

Oh gosh, I hope everything's okay in Haiti!

[fasterdisaster]

This low is absolutely mind-boggling. Chances will likely go up some in the next TWO, but who knows what will happen next with Gaston.

[chrisnnavarre]

Overall the low maintains a counter-clockwise turning over the entire area of Haiti..convection waning over the central part of the country but maintaining a burst just on the SW edge. If this ever gets completely away from land, i.e south of Cuba and stays away from the mountains of Jamaica it could stack rapidly in the western Caribbean.

[psyclone]

that convection over haiti was probably enhanced by daytime heating. if so it should wane tonight although a similar convective blowup could happen tomorrow over eastern cuba and jamaica. my guess is gaston's chances for regeneration remain near 0.

[abajan]

I think it is important to note that the TWO states ... THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. It is possible that the chances for re-development beyond 48 hours are higher.

[AdamFirst]

Higher by what percentage? 1 percent?

Former Gaston should be into the Yucatan in 48 hours...

[chrisnnavarre]

Visible circulation at about 18N 75W between Haiti and Jamaica... heading due west towards Jamaica. Small burst of convection starting to appear SW of the circulation...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/flash-vis.html

Looks to be still heading due west...

[ColinDelia]

Not even mentioned in the TWD. No "remnants". No nothing.

[ColinDelia]

No real vorticity at 850 mb. A little vorticity at 500 mb. Gaston appears to have left this world.

[Migle]

Well, Gaston has been taken off the TWO and looks like this one is now officially dead.

[Aric Dunn]

Still keep an eye on it... some interesting things may happen today...

[chrisnnavarre]

Well they can take it off the Two but it's still there, a blind man could see it on visible. Convection burst also building to the north and the south of the circulation now which is located directly between Haiti and Jamaica. Interesting to see if they assign a new invest number to it once it gets west of Jamaica. Then IF he becomes a tropical storm I guess they would give him the name Julia right? If that happens we can say we had the first storm that underwent a sex change in the Western Caribbean.

[HurricaneBelle]

Well they can take it off the Two but it's still there, a blind man could see it on visible. Convection burst also building to the north and the south of the circulation now which is located directly between Haiti and Jamaica. Interesting to see if they assign a new invest number to it once it gets west of Jamaica. Then IF he becomes a tropical storm I guess they would give him the name Julia right? If that happens we can say we had the first storm that underwent a sex change in the Western Caribbean.

It would still be Gaston as it's been a distinct entity - it hasn't merged with another system.

[tailgater]

Too funny.
I also think this needs to be watched as the ULL to west looks to be weakening and every T-storm seems want to develop now along with the amount TCHP it is about to encounter.

[chrisnnavarre]

From where it's at now there's still about 780 to 800 miles distance I think to the Yucatan... traveling at due west at fastest speed 20mph that would give him about another 40 hours for him to do something...plenty of time over very warm water.

[Sanibel]

There's a slight twist SE of Jamaica but from this disturbance's behavior it probably won't form.

Dry air victim in the mid-Atlantic from a post-Earl return of negativity and having the MJO rug pulled out from under it.