ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm GASTON - Discussion

[MGC]

Lets just hope that what is left of Gaston stays that way......MGC

[ColinDelia]

Gaston is a strange breed. There he goes. One of God's own prototypes. Some kind of high powered mutant never even considered for mass production. Too weird to live, and too rare to die.

[SootyTern]

Would we have paid this much attention to him if he had never been named? Another one of those potentials that never gets realized.

(off to the Igor thread now..)

[lrak]

Watch the visible loop and tell me "stick a fork in it." Its not time for Bones!

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=10

[cycloneye]

SSD took off the floater, a telling sign.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters.html

[emeraldislencguy]

I agree still not time for bones
it just keeps on teasing
almost can detect a small rotation

[terrapintransit]

Strangely...this would also be TD12 correct? And if I'm not mistaken TD12 (5 years ago) was Ms. K Correct...

[Sanibel]

I wish the Floater was still on this because there still seems to be some twist to the central round convection.

[Aric Dunn]

this is not a floater but it will work

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/pr/flash-rgb.html

.. and dont give up on this system yet.. its actually in a increasing good environment !! excellent upper high over it still some vorticity and come the western Caribbean should be quite favorable..

[Shuriken]

The floater is off the front-page, but the direst URL is still being updated (for the time being).

[ColinDelia]

Can also get updated images and loops here
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... r=AL092010

and animated images here:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/predict/

[ColinDelia]

Heat Content

[jlauderdal]

time to shutdown this thread and send it to the archives

We always let the threads in this forum for a few days after the last Tropical Weather Outlooks or last advisories are issued,before they go to the archieves.

good idea, thx

[chrisnnavarre]

Watch the visible loop and tell me "stick a fork in it." Its not time for Bones!

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=10

Gezz on that visual, if my eyes are not tricking me that circulation looks a lot farther south of Hispanola/Haiti than I would have thought it to be. I think this will even pass south of Jamaica. It's deffinently going into the western carribean that's for sure, and it's going in still twisting.

[ColinDelia]

[ColinDelia]

Extremely weak vorticity now. An elongated area of mostly 10x10^-6/s vorticity.

[Steve]

Fair enough tolakram, and great work. I know I get crusader sometime on this stuff, but I want to know why. And your post makes it clear why you think why. I actually agree with you about 98%, but I don't think seasonal forecasts are taken by the averge Joe except at face value. Half the time you hear Joe Public saying (for instance), "That's what they said last year, and there weren't any storms" - when in fact maybe it was a down year or whatever. I think people remember what they want to remember and how they want to remember it sometimes. Now as far as this year, I don't know if ex-Gaston is an anomaly or a sign of stuff to come that just isn't gonna develop. But it appears 2010 is different than some of those years with very marked and pronounced signals or strong markers.

5KO,

Yeah, it has been trotted out in a hyped up way. But what, these days, isn't the media hyping? I think it's the nature of the beast. I didn't get the opinion from CSU that 2005 was an exact match, but some of the water temperature profiles (among other things) have some similarities. I don't know how it's going to end up (still thinking mid-teens) but I never thought we were on track for a 28 named storm year. I don't think many people are. But at the "I" storm on 9/8, that's not that bad compared to a lot of the seasons I like as analogs (including 1998). We're ahead of some, behind others, but we've still got 11+ weeks to go. If we average a storm a week, that would put us at 20 (which I think is high). And 20 storms, even if nothing else landfalls (which I don't agree with), is a lot of storms.

VB,

Sorry. Saw your post after I started typing.

[Migle]

Strangely...this would also be TD12 correct? And if I'm not mistaken TD12 (5 years ago) was Ms. K Correct...

Different situation with Hurricane Katrina. TD10 interacted with another wave and became TD12, which was Katrina. Gaston has stayed the same wave this whole time.

[Shuriken]

NHC writing it off, calling it a "near-zero" now. (Forecasts of such certainty just beg the Gods of Fate, however.)

The one thing Gaston has lacked ever since falling apart is any upper-air support, as the system has essentially been capped, preventing any convection which does manage to fire from sustaining itself. It'd be ironic if orographic convergence over Hispaniola this evening finally generated a convective blob big enough to blast out an anti-cyclone aloft, and a tiny little surface curl popped up near the southwest end of Haiti tomorrow.

[LSU2001]

I know it's a little off topic but Is the spin off the western tip of cuba a ULL? and is this feature helping to keep the "Gaston" wave from developing?
Thanks,
Tim