ATL: GASTON - Models

[Ivanhater]

Luis, that is not Gaston. It is the wave being discussed here

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=109304

[ROCK]

Luis, that is not Gaston. It is the wave being discussed here

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=109304

what wave? NOGAPS and ECM bring this up out of SA?

sorry OT

[cycloneye]

Oh ok Ivan.

[Ivanhater]

Luis, that is not Gaston. It is the wave being discussed here

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=109304

what wave? NOGAPS and ECM bring this up out of SA?

sorry OT

No, Euro develops from a wave coming into the eastern Caribbean. Getting OT, so head on over to talking tropics

[cycloneye]

18z Tropical Models

Code: Select all

351
WHXX01 KWBC 071837
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1837 UTC TUE SEP 7 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE GASTON (AL092010) 20100907 1800 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100907  1800   100908  0600   100908  1800   100909  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    16.8N  64.6W   16.6N  67.3W   16.6N  69.7W   16.5N  71.7W
BAMD    16.8N  64.6W   16.7N  67.4W   16.7N  69.6W   16.5N  71.3W
BAMM    16.8N  64.6W   16.6N  67.3W   16.7N  69.7W   16.6N  71.6W
LBAR    16.8N  64.6W   16.7N  67.6W   16.8N  70.4W   16.9N  72.8W
SHIP        25KTS          30KTS          37KTS          50KTS
DSHP        25KTS          30KTS          37KTS          50KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100909  1800   100910  1800   100911  1800   100912  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    16.5N  73.2W   16.4N  76.5W   16.6N  80.9W   16.7N  86.0W
BAMD    16.1N  72.8W   15.6N  76.5W   15.6N  81.3W   16.0N  86.3W
BAMM    16.6N  73.1W   16.6N  76.4W   16.9N  80.7W   17.5N  85.6W
LBAR    17.0N  75.0W   17.2N  79.0W   17.6N  83.1W   17.8N  87.4W
SHIP        63KTS          81KTS          97KTS         118KTS
DSHP        63KTS          81KTS          97KTS         118KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  16.8N LONCUR =  64.6W DIRCUR = 265DEG SPDCUR =  18KT
LATM12 =  17.1N LONM12 =  60.8W DIRM12 = 259DEG SPDM12 =  18KT
LATM24 =  17.5N LONM24 =  57.2W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   75NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD =  120NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 


[Ivanhater]

SHIPS 118 knots!

[blazess556]

SHIPS 118 knots!

LGEM 141 knots

[artist]

let's just hope this system never comes about. With those types of winds, it would not be pretty anywhere.

[Ivanhater]

SHIPS 118 knots!

LGEM 141 knots

LGEM makes it a CAT 5. This just shows the potential a system has in the Western Caribbean. Amazing.

[lonelymike]

SHIPS 118 knots!

LGEM 141 knots

LGEM makes it a CAT 5. This just shows the potential a system has in the Western Caribbean. Amazing.

Wonder where the LGEM comes up with this? HRWF and GFDL weren't run for the 18Z. Only the Bamms from what the map shows.

[KWT]

Looks like we have a battle against the statistical models and the dynamic models, with the two differing views coming up with totally differing ideas of how this set-up will eventually develop.

[deltadog03]

I think that is Gaston...**I think** (over the SW GOM)



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[blazess556]

I think that is Gaston...**I think** (over the SW GOM)



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

no its not. its a wave that is east of the antilles right now and then develops.

[deltadog03]

Ah, gotcha! Thx

[cycloneye]

Ah, gotcha! Thx

I said the same earlier. But Ivan told me it was another wave.

[Dean4Storms]

Someone point out to me where this tropical wave is currently located that the ECM develops in the western Carib. and depicted above in the SW GOM in 8-9 days?????

This is the only Tropical Wave depicted in the 2pm TWD from TPC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC
BASIN...ANALYZED ALONG 21W S OF 18N MOVING WEST 10-15 KT.
SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATE BROAD CYCLONIC TURNING AROUND
THE WAVE AXIS CENTERED NEAR 14N. THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A
SURGE OF DEEP LEVEL MOISTURE AS INDICATED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
BETWEEN THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA AND 26W FROM 8N TO 18N.

[Ivanhater]

00z GFS holds on to ex Gaston a lot longer through 54 hours

[ROCK]

looks like it buries whats left in the sw corner of the carib...I see our TT friend coming into view...

interesting to see the SHIPS and LGEM bombing this out. The Carib has been untouched as well as the GOM to some extent....easily could support a major...

http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#ATL