ATL: GASTON - Models

[SootyTern]

Yeah, it is hard to imagine this taking the track the models are showing this time of year and doing nothing, unless that ULL is going to keep it in check somehow?

[ROCK]

maybe so, I thought for sure the 18z would have seen it....

[Ivanhater]

I'm in New Orleans this weekend so not much time to review this. but remember this is the storm that no model saw developing, yet it did. IMO, this will have nice conditions ahead...

[CalmBeforeStorm]

Yeah, it is hard to imagine this taking the track the models are showing this time of year and doing nothing, unless that ULL is going to keep it in check somehow?

I think the GFDL and HRWF represent the two most likely possibilities. If it stays weak going into the Caribbean it likely won't develope, like most systems, until the western caribbean as the GFDL depicts. If it developes at all, as the HWRF shows, before the Caribbean it will be influenced by the trough forecast to move off the Eastern U.S. in about 4 days and move north of Puerto Rico and the Islands.

[ColinDelia]

I think the gfs doesn't do anything with it because the upper level high never gets over it. A few days ago the gfs had gaston get north of the islands (targeting s fl) and get under the high that is currently north of it. The gfs intensified Gavin to a hurricane under that situation. In that run as soon as it was under the high it immediately began to intensify

In the recent runs the Upper level high stays north of gaston

[Vortex]

18Z Nogaps SE Bahamas in 6 days



https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[blazess556]

00z ships takes it to 112 knots while Lgem takes it to 131 knots.

ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES DATA AVAILABLE *
* OHC DATA AVAILABLE *
* GASTON AL092010 09/06/10 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 34 37 46 57 68 76 84 92 102 112
V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 34 37 46 57 68 76 84 92 102 112
V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 32 33 36 42 52 66 85 105 119 126 131

[ericinmia]

00z ships takes it to 112 knots while Lgem takes it to 131 knots.

ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES DATA AVAILABLE *
* OHC DATA AVAILABLE *
* GASTON AL092010 09/06/10 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 34 37 46 57 68 76 84 92 102 112
V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 34 37 46 57 68 76 84 92 102 112
V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 32 33 36 42 52 66 85 105 119 126 131

For whatever its worth... the two tracks for SHIPS and LGEM run the storm straight west for the entire period and their forecasts end it just off of Jamaica. That may be why it is seeing that ramp up in strength, as a trip just north of or through Hispanola will result in some weakening or worse...
-Eric

[Weatherfreak000]

I'm in New Orleans this weekend so not much time to review this. but remember this is the storm that no model saw developing, yet it did. IMO, this will have nice conditions ahead...

Why you in my parts this time of the year? Decadence fest is the only thing I know going on...

[Ikester]

A lot of my friends went to NOLA for Decadence.

[Wx_Warrior]

0z cmc nada

[ROCK]

0z cmc nada

two camps here some develop it some do not.....EURO out in a few...I am staying up for it....

[Wx_Warrior]

With the banks closed tomorrow, I figured you would!!! LOL

[ROCK]

00z ships takes it to 112 knots while Lgem takes it to 131 knots.

ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES DATA AVAILABLE *
* OHC DATA AVAILABLE *
* GASTON AL092010 09/06/10 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 34 37 46 57 68 76 84 92 102 112
V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 34 37 46 57 68 76 84 92 102 112
V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 32 33 36 42 52 66 85 105 119 126 131

For whatever its worth... the two tracks for SHIPS and LGEM run the storm straight west for the entire period and their forecasts end it just off of Jamaica. That may be why it is seeing that ramp up in strength, as a trip just north of or through Hispanola will result in some weakening or worse...
-Eric

very interesting the SHIPS is blowing this up in carib...none of the reliable globals are seeing it...

[ROCK]

With the banks closed tomorrow, I figured you would!!! LOL

ha ha...yes we are closed tomorrow....someone want my gut feeling?....this is GOM bound either as a TW to major....hows that for narrowing it down.....

[Wx_Warrior]

LOL same here!

[Florida1118]

With the banks closed tomorrow, I figured you would!!! LOL

ha ha...yes we are closed tomorrow....someone want my gut feeling?....this is GOM bound either as a TW to major....hows that for narrowing it down.....

How DO you do it? Man, you could be a 1-man NHC. lol

[Wx_Warrior]

nothing with euro thru 120 hrs

[Florida1118]

The models must be pretty blind to it if they cannot see Gaston sitting there. Or pretty confident it will never be Gaston again. I still think if it gets larger The models would be a bit less..blind. If that is the case.

[ROCK]

nothing with euro thru 120 hrs

yeah nothing there....IMO the ECM has been not as good at seeing development....