000
WTNT34 KNHC 011453
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092010
1100 AM AST WED SEP 01 2010
...ANOTHER TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.4N 35.8W
ABOUT 830 MI...1335 KM WSW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 1720 MI...2770 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 35.8 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR. THE
CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT A SLOWER
FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AND IT IS LIKELY THAT THE
CYCLONE WILL BECOME A TROPICAL STORM DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/BLAKE
ATL: GASTON - Advisories
Moderator: S2k Moderators
ATL: GASTON - Advisories
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: GASTON- Advisories
000
WTNT34 KNHC 012040
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GASTON ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092010
500 PM AST WED SEP 01 2010
...THE SEVENTH NAMED STORM OF THE SEASON FORMS...THE FOURTH TROPICAL
STORM IN THE LAST ELEVEN DAYS...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.9N 37.0W
ABOUT 895 MI...1440 KM WSW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 1635 MI...2635 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GASTON WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 37.0 WEST. GASTON IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR. A WEST OR
WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION WITH A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
WTNT34 KNHC 012040
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GASTON ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092010
500 PM AST WED SEP 01 2010
...THE SEVENTH NAMED STORM OF THE SEASON FORMS...THE FOURTH TROPICAL
STORM IN THE LAST ELEVEN DAYS...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.9N 37.0W
ABOUT 895 MI...1440 KM WSW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 1635 MI...2635 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GASTON WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 37.0 WEST. GASTON IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR. A WEST OR
WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION WITH A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: GASTON- Advisories
TROPICAL STORM GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092010
500 PM AST WED SEP 01 2010
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CONSOLIDATED NEAR THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH AN INTENSE CONVECTIVE BAND IN THE WESTERN
SEMICIRCLE. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 45
KT AND 30 KT...RESPECTIVELY...WITH AMSU ESTIMATES FROM CIRA AND CSU
INDICATING 50 KT AND 37 KT. OVERALL THIS SYSTEM APPEARS BETTER
ORGANIZED THAN SIX HOURS AGO...AND A BLEND OF THESE DATA GIVES AN
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KT...MAKING GASTON THE SEVENTH NAMED STORM
OF THE ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON.
THERE IS STILL A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF DRY AIR TO THE WEST AND NORTH
OF THE TROPICAL STORM...WHICH MAY HINDER STRENGTHENING. HOWEVER...
ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THAT A RELATIVELY LIGHT SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT WILL BE PRESENT NEAR GASTON FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THE GUIDANCE NOW INDICATES CONSIDERABLY MORE INTENSIFICATION OF
GASTON...WITH THE NORMALLY CONSERVATIVE LGEM SHOWING THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A MAJOR HURRICANE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE NHC
FORECAST IS RAISED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT REMAINS LOWER THAN
THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
AN AMSR-E PASS AT 1613 UTC HELPED WITH THE INITIAL POSITION AND
MOTION...WHICH IS A BIT SLOWER THAN BEFORE AT 280/13. A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF GASTON IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SOON AS A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH PASSES BY...WHICH WOULD CAUSE THE STORM TO SLOW
DOWN. THIS RIDGE SHOULD REBUILD IN A FEW DAYS AND STEER THE
TROPICAL STORM AT AN INCREASINGLY FASTER RATE TO THE WEST OR WEST-
NORTHWEST. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE COME INTO SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT
NOW THAT MOST OF THEM ARE INITIALIZING THE STORM...BUT THERE ARE
STILL SOME SIGNIFICANT SPEED DIFFERENCES. THE NHC FORECAST IS
FASTER THAN ALL OF THE GUIDANCE IN THE SHORT TERM AS IT SEEMS LIKE
THE MODELS ARE GENERALLY SHOWING TOO MUCH INTERACTION BETWEEN THE
ITCZ AND GASTON. THE NEW FORECAST DOES END UP CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
ONE BY DAY 5...AND IS NEAR A BLEND OF THE GFS/UKMET/HWRF/GFDL
MODELS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 01/2100Z 12.9N 37.0W 35 KT
12HR VT 02/0600Z 13.1N 38.3W 40 KT
24HR VT 02/1800Z 13.4N 39.9W 40 KT
36HR VT 03/0600Z 13.7N 41.2W 45 KT
48HR VT 03/1800Z 14.0N 42.5W 50 KT
72HR VT 04/1800Z 15.0N 45.5W 55 KT
96HR VT 05/1800Z 15.5N 50.0W 65 KT
120HR VT 06/1800Z 16.5N 54.5W 75 KT
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092010
500 PM AST WED SEP 01 2010
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CONSOLIDATED NEAR THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH AN INTENSE CONVECTIVE BAND IN THE WESTERN
SEMICIRCLE. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 45
KT AND 30 KT...RESPECTIVELY...WITH AMSU ESTIMATES FROM CIRA AND CSU
INDICATING 50 KT AND 37 KT. OVERALL THIS SYSTEM APPEARS BETTER
ORGANIZED THAN SIX HOURS AGO...AND A BLEND OF THESE DATA GIVES AN
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KT...MAKING GASTON THE SEVENTH NAMED STORM
OF THE ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON.
THERE IS STILL A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF DRY AIR TO THE WEST AND NORTH
OF THE TROPICAL STORM...WHICH MAY HINDER STRENGTHENING. HOWEVER...
ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THAT A RELATIVELY LIGHT SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT WILL BE PRESENT NEAR GASTON FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THE GUIDANCE NOW INDICATES CONSIDERABLY MORE INTENSIFICATION OF
GASTON...WITH THE NORMALLY CONSERVATIVE LGEM SHOWING THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A MAJOR HURRICANE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE NHC
FORECAST IS RAISED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT REMAINS LOWER THAN
THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
AN AMSR-E PASS AT 1613 UTC HELPED WITH THE INITIAL POSITION AND
MOTION...WHICH IS A BIT SLOWER THAN BEFORE AT 280/13. A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF GASTON IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SOON AS A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH PASSES BY...WHICH WOULD CAUSE THE STORM TO SLOW
DOWN. THIS RIDGE SHOULD REBUILD IN A FEW DAYS AND STEER THE
TROPICAL STORM AT AN INCREASINGLY FASTER RATE TO THE WEST OR WEST-
NORTHWEST. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE COME INTO SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT
NOW THAT MOST OF THEM ARE INITIALIZING THE STORM...BUT THERE ARE
STILL SOME SIGNIFICANT SPEED DIFFERENCES. THE NHC FORECAST IS
FASTER THAN ALL OF THE GUIDANCE IN THE SHORT TERM AS IT SEEMS LIKE
THE MODELS ARE GENERALLY SHOWING TOO MUCH INTERACTION BETWEEN THE
ITCZ AND GASTON. THE NEW FORECAST DOES END UP CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
ONE BY DAY 5...AND IS NEAR A BLEND OF THE GFS/UKMET/HWRF/GFDL
MODELS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 01/2100Z 12.9N 37.0W 35 KT
12HR VT 02/0600Z 13.1N 38.3W 40 KT
24HR VT 02/1800Z 13.4N 39.9W 40 KT
36HR VT 03/0600Z 13.7N 41.2W 45 KT
48HR VT 03/1800Z 14.0N 42.5W 50 KT
72HR VT 04/1800Z 15.0N 45.5W 55 KT
96HR VT 05/1800Z 15.5N 50.0W 65 KT
120HR VT 06/1800Z 16.5N 54.5W 75 KT
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: GASTON - Advisories
WTNT34 KNHC 020248
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GASTON ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092010
1100 PM AST WED SEP 01 2010
...GASTON BEGINS TO SLOW DOWN OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.4N 37.7W
ABOUT 935 MI...1500 KM W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 1585 MI...2550 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GASTON WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 37.7 WEST. GASTON IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BERG
TROPICAL STORM GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092010
1100 PM AST WED SEP 01 2010
GASTON HAS MAINTAINED A WELL-DEFINED CURVED BAND OF CONVECTION THAT
WRAPS FROM THE WESTERN TO NORTHERN SIDES OF THE CIRCULATION...AND
DVORAK FINAL-T NUMBERS ARE T2.5/35 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB. THE
OBJECTIVE ADT ESTIMATE FROM UW-CIMSS IS CURRENTLY T3.3/51 KT...BUT
A RECENT 0013 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWS WINDS NO HIGHER THAN 25-30 KT.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 35 KT AS A BLEND OF THESE
ESTIMATES.
THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST HAS AGAIN BEEN INCREASED A BIT FROM
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME DRY AIR SURROUNDING
THE CYCLONE...GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE VERTICAL
SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN LOW...AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS...AND THIS
COULD PREVENT THE DRY AIR FROM HAVING A SIGNIFICANT EFFECT.
STILL...THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST
GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL MODELS.
OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS...THE GFDL AND HWRF ONLY STRENGTHEN GASTON TO
A STRONG TROPICAL STORM OR MINIMAL HURRICANE...THE SHIPS MODEL
MAKES IT A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE...AND THE LGEM BRINGS IT TO
CATEGORY 4 INTENSITY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE ABOVE THE
INTENSITY CONSENSUS FOR THE FIRST 48 HOURS WHEN ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MOST IDEAL AND THEN VERY CLOSE TO THE
CONSENSUS THEREAFTER WHEN EASTERLY SHEAR COULD INCREASE A BIT.
THE LATEST SATELLITE FIXES INDICATE THAT GASTON HAS BEGUN TO SLOW
DOWN...POSSIBLY DUE TO A MID-LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED TO ITS
NORTHWEST. IT IS ALSO A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUSLY
ESTIMATED AND HAS AN INITIAL MOTION OF 280/10 KT. WITH THE BREAK
IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...GASTON IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
SLOW DOWN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS
TVCN IS SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...SO THE NEW OFFICIAL
FORECAST SHOWS A SLOWER MOTION OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS...BUT IS
STILL ON THE SAME GENERAL TRACK AS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. BY DAYS
4 AND 5...THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN...AND THE CYCLONE
SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE FASTER TO THE WEST.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 02/0300Z 13.4N 37.7W 35 KT
12HR VT 02/1200Z 13.5N 38.5W 40 KT
24HR VT 03/0000Z 13.7N 39.7W 45 KT
36HR VT 03/1200Z 13.8N 40.8W 50 KT
48HR VT 04/0000Z 14.0N 42.1W 55 KT
72HR VT 05/0000Z 14.5N 45.5W 65 KT
96HR VT 06/0000Z 15.0N 49.5W 75 KT
120HR VT 07/0000Z 16.0N 54.5W 85 KT
$$
FORECASTER BERG
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GASTON ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092010
1100 PM AST WED SEP 01 2010
...GASTON BEGINS TO SLOW DOWN OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.4N 37.7W
ABOUT 935 MI...1500 KM W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 1585 MI...2550 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GASTON WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 37.7 WEST. GASTON IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BERG
TROPICAL STORM GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092010
1100 PM AST WED SEP 01 2010
GASTON HAS MAINTAINED A WELL-DEFINED CURVED BAND OF CONVECTION THAT
WRAPS FROM THE WESTERN TO NORTHERN SIDES OF THE CIRCULATION...AND
DVORAK FINAL-T NUMBERS ARE T2.5/35 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB. THE
OBJECTIVE ADT ESTIMATE FROM UW-CIMSS IS CURRENTLY T3.3/51 KT...BUT
A RECENT 0013 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWS WINDS NO HIGHER THAN 25-30 KT.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 35 KT AS A BLEND OF THESE
ESTIMATES.
THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST HAS AGAIN BEEN INCREASED A BIT FROM
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME DRY AIR SURROUNDING
THE CYCLONE...GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE VERTICAL
SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN LOW...AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS...AND THIS
COULD PREVENT THE DRY AIR FROM HAVING A SIGNIFICANT EFFECT.
STILL...THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST
GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL MODELS.
OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS...THE GFDL AND HWRF ONLY STRENGTHEN GASTON TO
A STRONG TROPICAL STORM OR MINIMAL HURRICANE...THE SHIPS MODEL
MAKES IT A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE...AND THE LGEM BRINGS IT TO
CATEGORY 4 INTENSITY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE ABOVE THE
INTENSITY CONSENSUS FOR THE FIRST 48 HOURS WHEN ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MOST IDEAL AND THEN VERY CLOSE TO THE
CONSENSUS THEREAFTER WHEN EASTERLY SHEAR COULD INCREASE A BIT.
THE LATEST SATELLITE FIXES INDICATE THAT GASTON HAS BEGUN TO SLOW
DOWN...POSSIBLY DUE TO A MID-LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED TO ITS
NORTHWEST. IT IS ALSO A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUSLY
ESTIMATED AND HAS AN INITIAL MOTION OF 280/10 KT. WITH THE BREAK
IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...GASTON IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
SLOW DOWN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS
TVCN IS SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...SO THE NEW OFFICIAL
FORECAST SHOWS A SLOWER MOTION OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS...BUT IS
STILL ON THE SAME GENERAL TRACK AS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. BY DAYS
4 AND 5...THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN...AND THE CYCLONE
SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE FASTER TO THE WEST.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 02/0300Z 13.4N 37.7W 35 KT
12HR VT 02/1200Z 13.5N 38.5W 40 KT
24HR VT 03/0000Z 13.7N 39.7W 45 KT
36HR VT 03/1200Z 13.8N 40.8W 50 KT
48HR VT 04/0000Z 14.0N 42.1W 55 KT
72HR VT 05/0000Z 14.5N 45.5W 65 KT
96HR VT 06/0000Z 15.0N 49.5W 75 KT
120HR VT 07/0000Z 16.0N 54.5W 85 KT
$$
FORECASTER BERG
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Re: ATL: GASTON - Advisories
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GASTON ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092010
500 AM AST THU SEP 02 2010
...GASTON MOVING SLOWLY OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH NO
CHANGE IN STRENGTH...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 38.2W
ABOUT 965 MI...1550 KM W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 1550 MI...2495 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GASTON WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 38.2 WEST. GASTON IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/KIMBERLAIN
TROPICAL STORM GASTON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092010
0900 UTC THU SEP 02 2010
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 38.2W AT 02/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 38.2W AT 02/0900Z
AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 38.0W
FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 13.6N 39.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 20SE 0SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 13.8N 40.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 45SE 30SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 14.0N 41.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 45SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 14.2N 42.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 15SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 45SW 80NW.
FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 14.6N 45.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 30SE 30SW 45NW.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 60SW 90NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 15.0N 50.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 16.0N 55.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.5N 38.2W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/KIMBERLAIN
TROPICAL STORM GASTON ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092010
500 AM AST THU SEP 02 2010
...GASTON MOVING SLOWLY OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH NO
CHANGE IN STRENGTH...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 38.2W
ABOUT 965 MI...1550 KM W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 1550 MI...2495 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GASTON WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 38.2 WEST. GASTON IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/KIMBERLAIN
TROPICAL STORM GASTON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092010
0900 UTC THU SEP 02 2010
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 38.2W AT 02/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 38.2W AT 02/0900Z
AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 38.0W
FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 13.6N 39.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 20SE 0SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 13.8N 40.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 45SE 30SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 14.0N 41.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 45SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 14.2N 42.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 15SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 45SW 80NW.
FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 14.6N 45.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 30SE 30SW 45NW.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 60SW 90NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 15.0N 50.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 16.0N 55.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.5N 38.2W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/KIMBERLAIN
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cycloneye
- Admin
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- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ATL: GASTON - Advisories
WTNT34 KNHC 021437
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION GASTON ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092010
1100 AM AST THU SEP 02 2010
...GASTON WEAKENS...NOW A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.0N 38.9W
ABOUT 970 MI...1565 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 1500 MI...2415 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION GASTON
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 38.9 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11
KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME RESTRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH
000
WTNT44 KNHC 021438
TCDAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092010
1100 AM AST THU SEP 02 2010
METEOSAT-9 VISIBLE AND INFRARED IMAGES SHOW THAT DEEP CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH GASTON HAS DECREASED CONSIDERABLY AND IS LIMITED TO
A FRAGMENTED BAND OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
CIRCULATION. THE PIRATA PREDICTION AND RESEARCH BUOY 13008 LOCATED
ABOUT 80 N MI NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER HAS BEEN ONLY AVERAGING
AROUND 17 KT DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES HAVE DECREASED TO 30 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB. BASED ON
THESE DATA...GASTON IS LOWERED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION STATUS.
ALTHOUGH THE UPPER WIND PATTERN IS FORECAST TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR
STRENGTHENING...THE RATHER DRY AND STABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT
DOMINATING THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC SHOULD ONLY PERMIT SLOW
INTENSIFICATION. A NATIONAL SCIENCE FOUNDATION G-V AIRCRAFT IS
CURRENTLY ENROUTE ON A PREDICT RESEARCH MISSION TO SAMPLE THE
SURROUNDING ENVIRONMENT. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS
THE ICON CONSENSUS MODEL...AND IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS AND LGEM
MODELS AT DAYS 4 AND 5.
GASTON IS MOVING A LITTLE SLOWER AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...AROUND 290/6...IN RESPONSE TO A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL HIGH
AMPLITUDE TROUGH SITUATED ALONG 38W AND TO THE NORTH OF THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS AGREE ON A CONTINUED
SLOW WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITHIN THE WEAK EASTERLY STEERING
FLOW INFLUENCED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH THROUGH ABOUT 36
HOURS. AFTERWARDS...THE DYNAMICAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BUILD EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD WHICH WOULD INFLUENCE GASTON TO MOVE
GENERALLY WESTWARD AT A SLIGHTLY QUICKER PACE. THE NHC OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS BASED
ON A COMPROMISE OF ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 02/1500Z 14.0N 38.9W 30 KT
12HR VT 03/0000Z 14.1N 39.7W 30 KT
24HR VT 03/1200Z 14.3N 40.7W 35 KT
36HR VT 04/0000Z 14.5N 42.0W 45 KT
48HR VT 04/1200Z 14.7N 43.3W 50 KT
72HR VT 05/1200Z 15.0N 46.5W 60 KT
96HR VT 06/1200Z 15.5N 51.0W 70 KT
120HR VT 07/1200Z 16.0N 56.0W 85 KT
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION GASTON ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092010
1100 AM AST THU SEP 02 2010
...GASTON WEAKENS...NOW A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.0N 38.9W
ABOUT 970 MI...1565 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 1500 MI...2415 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION GASTON
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 38.9 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11
KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME RESTRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH
000
WTNT44 KNHC 021438
TCDAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092010
1100 AM AST THU SEP 02 2010
METEOSAT-9 VISIBLE AND INFRARED IMAGES SHOW THAT DEEP CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH GASTON HAS DECREASED CONSIDERABLY AND IS LIMITED TO
A FRAGMENTED BAND OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
CIRCULATION. THE PIRATA PREDICTION AND RESEARCH BUOY 13008 LOCATED
ABOUT 80 N MI NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER HAS BEEN ONLY AVERAGING
AROUND 17 KT DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES HAVE DECREASED TO 30 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB. BASED ON
THESE DATA...GASTON IS LOWERED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION STATUS.
ALTHOUGH THE UPPER WIND PATTERN IS FORECAST TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR
STRENGTHENING...THE RATHER DRY AND STABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT
DOMINATING THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC SHOULD ONLY PERMIT SLOW
INTENSIFICATION. A NATIONAL SCIENCE FOUNDATION G-V AIRCRAFT IS
CURRENTLY ENROUTE ON A PREDICT RESEARCH MISSION TO SAMPLE THE
SURROUNDING ENVIRONMENT. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS
THE ICON CONSENSUS MODEL...AND IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS AND LGEM
MODELS AT DAYS 4 AND 5.
GASTON IS MOVING A LITTLE SLOWER AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...AROUND 290/6...IN RESPONSE TO A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL HIGH
AMPLITUDE TROUGH SITUATED ALONG 38W AND TO THE NORTH OF THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS AGREE ON A CONTINUED
SLOW WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITHIN THE WEAK EASTERLY STEERING
FLOW INFLUENCED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH THROUGH ABOUT 36
HOURS. AFTERWARDS...THE DYNAMICAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BUILD EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD WHICH WOULD INFLUENCE GASTON TO MOVE
GENERALLY WESTWARD AT A SLIGHTLY QUICKER PACE. THE NHC OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS BASED
ON A COMPROMISE OF ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 02/1500Z 14.0N 38.9W 30 KT
12HR VT 03/0000Z 14.1N 39.7W 30 KT
24HR VT 03/1200Z 14.3N 40.7W 35 KT
36HR VT 04/0000Z 14.5N 42.0W 45 KT
48HR VT 04/1200Z 14.7N 43.3W 50 KT
72HR VT 05/1200Z 15.0N 46.5W 60 KT
96HR VT 06/1200Z 15.5N 51.0W 70 KT
120HR VT 07/1200Z 16.0N 56.0W 85 KT
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139008
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ATL: GASTON - Advisories
Last Advisory
WTNT34 KNHC 022032
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION GASTON ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092010
500 PM AST THU SEP 02 2010
...GASTON BECOMES A REMNANT LOW OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL TROPICAL
ATLANTIC...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 39.5W
ABOUT 1015 MI...1635 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 1465 MI...2355 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE REMNANT LOW OF GASTON WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 13.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 39.5 WEST. THE LOW IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR...AND A CONTINUED WESTWARD
MOTION WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON GASTON...UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS.
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH
000
WTNT44 KNHC 022033
TCDAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092010
500 PM AST THU SEP 02 2010
CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DROPSONDES FROM THE NATIONAL
SCIENCE FOUNDATION G-V AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT GASTON HAS
DEGENERATED INTO A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE AREA. THE SYSTEM CONSISTS
OF A WEAK LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITHOUT ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION.
MAXIMUM WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 KT...AND THESE WINDS ARE LIKELY
OCCURRING ONLY IN A SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE
CENTER.
THE REMNANT LOW IS SITUATED TO THE SOUTH OF A WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...AND IS DRIFTING WESTWARD. THE LARGE-SCALE
MODELS PREDICT SOME BUILDING OF RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK
INDICATES A CONTINUED GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.
ALTHOUGH NOT EXPLICITLY INDICATED HERE...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT
GASTON COULD REGENERATE INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THIS IS THE SCENARIO THAT IS BEING SUGGESTED BY SOME OF THE
GLOBAL MODELS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 02/2100Z 13.5N 39.5W 25 KT
12HR VT 03/0600Z 13.5N 40.4W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24HR VT 03/1800Z 13.7N 41.7W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36HR VT 04/0600Z 14.0N 43.0W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48HR VT 04/1800Z 14.2N 44.4W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72HR VT 05/1800Z 14.5N 48.0W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96HR VT 06/1800Z 15.0N 52.5W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120HR VT 07/1800Z 15.5N 57.5W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH
WTNT34 KNHC 022032
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION GASTON ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092010
500 PM AST THU SEP 02 2010
...GASTON BECOMES A REMNANT LOW OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL TROPICAL
ATLANTIC...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 39.5W
ABOUT 1015 MI...1635 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 1465 MI...2355 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE REMNANT LOW OF GASTON WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 13.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 39.5 WEST. THE LOW IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR...AND A CONTINUED WESTWARD
MOTION WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON GASTON...UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS.
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH
000
WTNT44 KNHC 022033
TCDAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092010
500 PM AST THU SEP 02 2010
CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DROPSONDES FROM THE NATIONAL
SCIENCE FOUNDATION G-V AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT GASTON HAS
DEGENERATED INTO A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE AREA. THE SYSTEM CONSISTS
OF A WEAK LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITHOUT ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION.
MAXIMUM WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 KT...AND THESE WINDS ARE LIKELY
OCCURRING ONLY IN A SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE
CENTER.
THE REMNANT LOW IS SITUATED TO THE SOUTH OF A WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...AND IS DRIFTING WESTWARD. THE LARGE-SCALE
MODELS PREDICT SOME BUILDING OF RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK
INDICATES A CONTINUED GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.
ALTHOUGH NOT EXPLICITLY INDICATED HERE...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT
GASTON COULD REGENERATE INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THIS IS THE SCENARIO THAT IS BEING SUGGESTED BY SOME OF THE
GLOBAL MODELS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 02/2100Z 13.5N 39.5W 25 KT
12HR VT 03/0600Z 13.5N 40.4W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24HR VT 03/1800Z 13.7N 41.7W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36HR VT 04/0600Z 14.0N 43.0W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48HR VT 04/1800Z 14.2N 44.4W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72HR VT 05/1800Z 14.5N 48.0W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96HR VT 06/1800Z 15.0N 52.5W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120HR VT 07/1800Z 15.5N 57.5W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH
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