EPAC: Ex Tropical Depression ELEVEN-E

[HURAKAN]

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_ep952010.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201009031629
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, EP, E, , , , , 95, 2010, DB, O, 2010090312, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , EP952010
EP, 95, 2010090212, , BEST, 0, 141N, 934W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 95, 2010090218, , BEST, 0, 144N, 935W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 95, 2010090300, , BEST, 0, 147N, 937W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 95, 2010090306, , BEST, 0, 150N, 940W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 95, 2010090312, , BEST, 0, 153N, 943W, 25, 1008, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 125, 60, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,

[HURAKAN]

Code: Select all

283
WHXX01 KMIA 031632
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1632 UTC FRI SEP 3 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP952010) 20100903 1200 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100903  1200   100904  0000   100904  1200   100905  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    15.3N  94.3W   15.6N  94.8W   16.2N  95.6W   16.9N  96.5W
BAMD    15.3N  94.3W   15.8N  95.4W   16.4N  96.6W   17.0N  97.9W
BAMM    15.3N  94.3W   15.9N  95.3W   16.6N  96.6W   17.3N  97.8W
LBAR    15.3N  94.3W   16.2N  95.5W   17.9N  96.8W   19.6N  97.9W
SHIP        25KTS          30KTS          36KTS          43KTS
DSHP        25KTS          30KTS          27KTS          27KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100905  1200   100906  1200   100907  1200   100908  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    17.7N  97.3W   19.7N  98.8W   21.9N 100.7W   23.7N 103.0W
BAMD    17.6N  99.0W   18.5N 100.6W   19.7N 102.5W   20.9N 105.2W
BAMM    17.9N  98.7W   19.0N 100.0W   20.5N 101.7W   21.8N 103.8W
LBAR    21.0N  98.7W   24.2N  99.6W   28.4N  98.4W   32.0N  96.2W
SHIP        51KTS          64KTS          65KTS          69KTS
DSHP        27KTS          27KTS          27KTS          27KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  15.3N LONCUR =  94.3W DIRCUR = 320DEG SPDCUR =   4KT
LATM12 =  14.7N LONM12 =  93.7W DIRM12 = 321DEG SPDM12 =   4KT
LATM24 =  14.1N LONM24 =  93.4W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   60NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD =  125NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 
$$
NNNN



[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT FRI SEP 3 2010

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON NEWLY FORMED
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E...LOCATED ABOUT 220 MI SOUTH OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IS NEARLY
STATIONARY. WHILE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE SOMEWHAT
CONDUCIVE...THE PROXIMITY OF THE SYSTEM TO LAND IS EXPECTED TO
LIMIT SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM
OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO AND GUATEMALA DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO
HEADER WTPZ35 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPEP5.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E ARE ISSUED UNDER
WMO HEADER WTPZ25 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMEP5.

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/BLAKE

[HURAKAN]

not much room for development

[HURAKAN]

latest

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT FRI SEP 3 2010

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TEN-E...LOCATED ABOUT 205 MILES SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN
TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAVE BECOME CONSIDERABLY BETTER
ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. WHILE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...THE PROXIMITY OF THE SYSTEM TO
LAND COULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMATION.
THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT DRIFTS NORTHWARD.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO AND GUATEMALA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...
WHICH MAY CAUSE FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO
HEADER WTPZ35 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPEP5.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E ARE ISSUED UNDER
WMO HEADER WTPZ25 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMEP5.

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/BLAKE

[Macrocane]

It may not be a tropical cyclone yet but it has already caused some troubles in Central America:

-In Guatemala at least 45 traffic accidents have been reported and several roads are blocked because of landslides.
-In El Salvador some landslides have been reported and a tree fell over a car killing three kids.

Some links (in Spanish):

http://www.prensalibre.com/noticias/comunitario/accidentes-derrumbes-lluvia-incesante_0_328767276.html

http://www.laprensagrafica.com/el-salvador/social/139994-proteccion-civil-emite-advertencia-por-lluvias.html

[HURAKAN]

18z

EP, 95, 2010090318, , BEST, 0, 148N, 942W, 30, 1006, DB

up to 35 mph

[cycloneye]

WTPZ31 KNHC 032255
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112010
400 PM PDT FRI SEP 03 2010

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...TROPICAL
STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM PDT...2300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.1N 94.3W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM SE OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO FROM BOCA DE PIJIJIAPAN WESTWARD TO PUERTO
ANGEL.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO FROM BOCA DE PIJIJIAPAN WESTWARD TO
PUERTO ANGEL

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO MEXICO...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND
WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF MEXICO.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 400 PM PDT...2300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
ELEVEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.3 WEST.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/HR.
THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF
THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE MOVING INLAND ON SATURDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA EARLY SATURDAY.

RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES OVER THE MEXICAN STATE OF OAXACA.
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...WHICH COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUD SLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BERG/BRENNAN




WTPZ21 KNHC 032247
TCMEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112010
2300 UTC FRI SEP 03 2010

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO FROM BOCA DE PIJIJIAPAN WESTWARD TO PUERTO
ANGEL.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO FROM BOCA DE PIJIJIAPAN WESTWARD TO
PUERTO ANGEL

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 94.3W AT 03/2300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 94.3W AT 03/2300Z
AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 94.1W

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 15.5N 94.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 45NE 45SE 30SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 16.8N 95.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.1N 94.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG/BRENNAN

[Florida1118]

According to track this is moving in the direction the BOC?

[HURAKAN]

Track

[cycloneye]

WTPZ41 KNHC 032310
TCDEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112010
400 PM PDT FRI SEP 03 2010

AN AMSR-E MICROWAVE IMAGE FROM 1920 UTC INDICATED THAT THE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAS DEVELOPED A
WELL-DEFINED CENTER THAT IS CLOSELY SURROUNDED BY SEVERAL CURVED
BANDS OF CONVECTION. ADVISORIES ARE THEREFORE BEING INITIATED ON
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E. THE SYSTEM IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
MONSOON TROUGH LOCATED SOUTH OF THE MEXICAN COAST...AND THE INITIAL
MOTION IS A SLOW 315/2 KT. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE CYCLONE MOVING
SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND THE SYSTEM WILL
LIKELY MOVE INLAND ACROSS THE COAST OF OAXACA IN MEXICO WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THE DEPRESSION IS THEN EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN MEXICO BY 36 HOURS.

ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM...IT
WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH OF AN INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION FOR THE
DEPRESSION TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE IT REACHES LAND. THE
SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS SHOW THE CYCLONE REACHING A MAXIMUM INTENSITY
OF 35-40 KT BEFORE MOVING ONSHORE...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
FOLLOWS THIS THINKING.

SINCE THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE MOVING
ONSHORE...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A PART OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO ALONG THE COAST OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. EVEN
THOUGH A WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT...THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY WILL TAKE
THE PLACE OF THE INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY THAT NORMALLY WOULD
HAVE BEEN ISSUED AT 0000 UTC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 03/2300Z 15.1N 94.3W 30 KT
12HR VT 04/0600Z 15.5N 94.6W 35 KT
24HR VT 04/1800Z 16.8N 95.6W 30 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BERG/BRENNAN

[supercane]

The AMSR-E image mentioned in the discussion:

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Saw a few of the models curve this to the NNE into the southern BOC. Any chance of this getting back into the gulf and moving north somewhere along the northern gulf coast states?

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112010
0300 UTC SAT SEP 04 2010

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO FROM BOCA DE PIJIJIAPAN WESTWARD TO
PUERTO ANGEL

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO MEXICO...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND
WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF MEXICO.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 95.2W AT 04/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 95.2W AT 04/0300Z
AT 04/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 94.5W

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 16.0N 95.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 45SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 16.8N 96.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.5N 95.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG/BRENNAN

[Brent]

EP, 11, 2010090406, , BEST, 0, 160N, 951W, 35, 1004, TS, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 75, 30, 0, 0,

TS Georgette

[WeatherGuesser]

I can't really tell if 11E is connect to the new 10% system in the Gulf or if they consider it completely different.

[Chacor]

Remains a TD at the 09z advisory but I do believe it was probably a TS at some point and will be upgraded in post-analysis.

[cycloneye]

Last Advisory

KNHC 041441
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112010
800 AM PDT SAT SEP 04 2010

...DEPRESSION WEAKENS TO A REMNANT LOW OVER SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.0N 95.8W
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM NW OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF THE REMNANT LOW OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 95.8 WEST. THE LOW IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8
MPH...13 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER EASTERN MEXICO DURING
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...THE REMNANTS OF THE DEPRESSION ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES OVER THE MEXICAN STATE OF
OAXACA. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WHICH COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN



TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112010
800 AM PDT SAT SEP 04 2010

SATELLITE IMAGERY...ALONG WITH MEXICAN RADAR AND SURFACE DATA...
INDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS WEAKENED TO A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE
AREA OVER SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
MOVE NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS UNTIL DISSIPATION.

ALTHOUGH THE LOW IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE...THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

SEVERAL LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE POSSIBILITY OF A TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMING IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO. IT IS UNCLEAR WHETHER THIS WOULD COME FROM THE
REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E OR A BRAND NEW
DEVELOPMENT.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 04/1500Z 17.0N 95.8W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12HR VT 05/0000Z 17.8N 96.4W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24HR VT 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN