ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm HERMINE - Discussion

[cycloneye]

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al902010.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201009050513
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 90, 2010, DB, O, 2010090500, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL902010
AL, 90, 2010090406, , BEST, 0, 184N, 958W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2010090412, , BEST, 0, 186N, 958W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2010090418, , BEST, 0, 189N, 958W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2010090500, , BEST, 0, 193N, 958W, 20, 1007, DB

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

Thread at Talking Tropics where the members discussed about this system.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=109221&st=0&sk=t&sd=a

[fci]

Long time since an Invest that was not coming off Africa.

[WeatherGuesser]

[WeatherGuesser]

[Migle]

Took long enough for this one to get tagged. Might make a run at a low-end Tropical Storm.

[southerngale]

Some gray tops...

[Florida1118]

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR IMAGERY FROM MEXICO INDICATE THAT A
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS FORMED OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY
DISORGANIZED...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THERE IS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO
10 MPH.

[HouTXmetro]

That's some really deep convection in the BOC

[supercane]

[WeatherGuesser]

Since nobody answered on the other thread, is this the former 11E crossing over?

[PauleinHouston]

I believe 11E is still there...this looks like a spin off of a sort along the elongated trough axis in the GOM/BOC

[ColinDelia]

Buoy in Bay of Campeche

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42055

[dixiebreeze]

Dr. Jeff Masters: Gulf of Mexico disturbance
A concentrated area of heavy thunderstorms has developed over the extreme southwestern Gulf of Mexico, in the Bay of Campeche. This disturbance is under a low 5 - 10 knots of wind shear, and has a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday, according to NHC. The disturbance is headed northwest at 5 - 10 mph, but could turn more to the north-northwest and bring heavy rains to the Texas/Mexico border region on Monday, according to the latest run of the GFS model.

[PauleinHouston]

Looks like plenty of moisture to work with.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-wv.html

Steering layers appears to support a NW movement as well, assuming it can get organized.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm1.html

[cycloneye]

8 AM TWO=Up to 60%

RADAR IMAGERY FROM MEXICO INDICATES THAT A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO HAS
CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO BEFORE THE SYSTEM MOVES INLAND. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

[WeatherGuesser]

No floater yet?

[PauleinHouston]

Haven't seen floater up either...

Interesting...looks like movement due North and pressure falling

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al902010.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201009051226
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 90, 2010, DB, O, 2010090500, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL902010
AL, 90, 2010090406, , BEST, 0, 184N, 958W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2010090412, , BEST, 0, 186N, 957W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2010090418, , BEST, 0, 187N, 956W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2010090500, , BEST, 0, 189N, 956W, 20, 1007, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2010090506, , BEST, 0, 191N, 956W, 20, 1007, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 180, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 90, 2010090512, , BEST, 0, 194N, 956W, 25, 1005, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 160, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,

[HURAKAN]

Floater http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/float1.html

[Macrocane]

It looks like some banding features are developing, IMO it already looks better than TD2

[TexWx]

By my untrained eye, (and I'm a little hungover) any "low" would appear to be moving in a WNW direction.
But the clouds are getting shot off to the north.