ATL: HERMINE - Models

[southerngale]

Current link

[ColinDelia]

If a low center were to form in the middle of that deep convection it would have quite a bit more time over water than the models currently give it.

[ColinDelia]

6z GFS. 30 hours. Still over water

[ColinDelia]

42 hours

[ColinDelia]

54 hours. Still on coast.

[xironman]

Imaging if a model that had a clue showed this?

[cycloneye]

12z Tropical Models

Code: Select all

238
WHXX01 KWBC 051229
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1229 UTC SUN SEP 5 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL902010) 20100905 1200 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100905  1200   100906  0000   100906  1200   100907  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    19.4N  95.6W   20.3N  96.1W   21.4N  96.9W   22.7N  97.6W
BAMD    19.4N  95.6W   19.9N  96.3W   20.3N  97.0W   20.9N  97.8W
BAMM    19.4N  95.6W   20.2N  96.0W   20.8N  96.7W   21.7N  97.5W
LBAR    19.4N  95.6W   19.9N  96.1W   20.8N  97.1W   22.1N  98.5W
SHIP        25KTS          34KTS          42KTS          51KTS
DSHP        25KTS          34KTS          42KTS          41KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100907  1200   100908  1200   100909  1200   100910  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    24.2N  98.9W   27.5N 102.1W   31.9N 103.2W   38.0N  98.9W
BAMD    21.6N  99.0W   23.4N 101.8W   25.6N 103.9W   28.5N 104.1W
BAMM    22.8N  98.6W   25.3N 101.3W   28.6N 103.0W   33.2N 101.0W
LBAR    23.8N  99.9W   28.7N 101.9W   35.2N  99.5W   39.6N  89.3W
SHIP        60KTS          73KTS          77KTS          71KTS
DSHP        34KTS          27KTS          27KTS          27KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  19.4N LONCUR =  95.6W DIRCUR =   0DEG SPDCUR =   2KT
LATM12 =  18.9N LONM12 =  95.6W DIRM12 = 360DEG SPDM12 =   2KT
LATM24 =  18.6N LONM24 =  95.7W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   60NM WNDM12 =   20KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD =  160NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 


[srainhoutx]

12Z GFS suggests a low (maybe TD) moving NNW near the Coast to Tampico through 48 hours.

[Wx_Warrior]

18z NAM

[Wx_Warrior]

18z gfs

[southerngale]

NAM 24 hours - near Corpus

[redfish1]

does anyone think that the faster this develops more north it will go?

[Wx_Warrior]

0z NAM is weaker than 18z run.

[Florida1118]

does anyone think that the faster this develops more north it will go?

IMO No. I think It goes to Mexico as a weak storm. Not to bad accept for the rain

[ConvergenceZone]

2010 seems to be all about Mexico landfalling storms....I bet next year we won't be so lucky.

[Wx_Warrior]

0z GFS

[South Texas Storms]

00z gfs looks a little more north than its previous runs with a landfall into the tex/mex border right around brownsville/south padre island. could give texas even more rain.

[Wx_Warrior]

0z CMC sends North Mexico.

[WeatherGuesser]

I'll take the BAMMs if it doesn't rain out before it gets to the Ohio valley. We're about 10" down for the year.

[Wx_Warrior]

EURO 24 hrs