WPAC: Ex-Tropical Storm MERANTI (1010/11W)

[KWT]

Looks like the convection is trying to wrap itself around the systems circulation looking at that image there Supercane, at least on the eastern side of the LLC.

[Chacor]

Going to be short-lived, but we have number 10.

WTPQ21 RJTD 090000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1010 MERANTI (1010) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 090000UTC 21.1N 119.1E FAIR
MOVE N 07KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 120NM SOUTHEAST 60NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 100000UTC 24.2N 118.5E 70NM 70%
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 110000UTC 29.0N 119.3E 180NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

[supercane]

WTPN31 PGTW 090300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 11W (ELEVEN) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090000Z --- NEAR 21.3N 119.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 055 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 21.3N 119.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 22.3N 119.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 24.0N 119.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 25.7N 118.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 27.5N 118.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
090300Z POSITION NEAR 21.6N 119.4E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 11W (ELEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 250 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
090000Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090900Z, 091500Z, 092100Z AND
100300Z.//
NNNN

[supercane]

From HKO:
WTSS20 VHHH 090145
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION NEAR THE LUZON STRAIT (1010) WITH
CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 HECTOPASCALS WAS NAMED AS MERANTI. AT
090000 UTC, IT WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO
ONE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (21.0 N) ONE ONE NINE POINT
TWO DEGREES EAST (119.2 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE
NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 100000 UTC
TWO FIVE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (25.0 N)
ONE ONE SEVEN POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (117.0 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 110000 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.



From CWB (Taiwan):
07fW40092
WTCI RCTP 090000 =
WARNING VALID 100000Z =
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 3 HOURS =
TROPICAL STORM 201010 (MERANTI 201010) WARNING =
POSITION 090000Z AT TWO ONE POINT TWO NORTH ( 21.2N ) ONE ONE NINE POINT THREE EAST ( 119.3E ) =
MOVEMENT NEXT 24HRS NNW 12KM/HR
MIN SURFACE PRESSURE 998 HPA =
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR CENTER 18 METER PER SECOND GUST 25 METER PER SECOND =
RADIUS OF OVER 15M/S WINDS 80 KM =
FORECAST POSITION =
12HRS VALID AT 091200Z AT TWO TWO POINT FOUR NORTH ( 22.4N ) ONE ONE EIGHT POINT EIGHT EAST ( 118.8E )=
24HRS VALID AT 100000Z AT TWO THREE POINT SIX NORTH ( 23.6N ) ONE ONE EIGHT POINT THREE EAST ( 118.3E )=
48HRS VALID AT 110000Z AT TWO SEVEN POINT ONE NORTH ( 27.1N ) ONE ONE SEVEN POINT ONE EAST ( 117.1E )=
72HRS VALID AT 120000Z Tropical Depression.=



TXPN26 KNES 090320
SIMWIR
A. 11W (NONAME)
B. 09/0232Z
C. 21.7N
D. 119.1E
E. THREE/MTSAT
F. T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/SSMIS
H. REMARKS...6/10 BANDING YIELDS A DT=3.0 BASED ON MEASUREMENT USING
LOG10 SPIRAL. MET=2.5 AND PT=3.0. FT BASED ON DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
08/2229Z 21.2N 119.1E SSMIS
...EVANS
=

Microwave showing what you suggested, KWT. Trying to make a run toward typhoon status, but probably not enough time, as convection still largely removed from center.

[supercane]

WTPQ21 RJTD 090300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1010 MERANTI (1010)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 090300UTC 21.7N 119.2E FAIR
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 120NM SOUTHEAST 60NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 100300UTC 25.1N 118.4E 70NM 70%
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
45HF 110000UTC 29.0N 119.3E 180NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

WTKO20 RKSL 090000
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 1
NAME TS 1010 MERANTI
ANALYSIS
POSITION 090000UTC 21.1N 119.1E
MOVEMENT N 7KT
PRES/VMAX 1000HPA 35KT
FORECAST
24HR
POSITION 100000UTC 23.9N 118.1E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 998HPA 37KT
48HR
POSITION 110000UTC 27.7N 117.4E WITHIN 0NM
PRES 1000HPA
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

Last cycle model guidance from Kerry Emanuel's page:

[supercane]

WDPN31 PGTW 090300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 11W WARNING NR 05//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 11W (ELEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 250 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) INDICATES A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION FLARING OVER THE
CENTER AND BEING SHEARED EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. DIRECT
CYCLONE INTERACTION (DCI) WITH A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH
(TUTT) CELL, WHICH HAS REFLECTED DOWN TO THE SURFACE, HAS CAUSED TS
11W TO SLOW AND MAKE AN ABRUPT NORTHEASTWARD TURN FROM WHAT WAS
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT
POSITION AND PAST SIX HOUR MOTION BASED ON MSI, THE TAIWAN RADAR
LOOP, AND A 082332Z AMSU 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THE CURRENT FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS SHIFTED FROM A
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK ALONG A LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL STEERING
RIDGE TO A POLEWARD TRACK BASED ON RECENT MSI DEPICTING BINARY
INTERACTION WITH A SURFACE REFLECTION OF THE TUTT CELL NORTHWEST OF
THE SYSTEM.
B. TS 11W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD DUE TO DCI WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED TUTT CELL. BY TAU 12, TS 11W IS EXPECTED TO TURN
POLEWARD, THEN SLIGHTLY NORTHWESTWARD, NEAR TAU 24, AS THE TUTT CELL
MOVES FURTHER OVER EASTERN CHINA AND INDUCES A SLIGHT CYCLONIC
ROTATION. TS 11W IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL BY TAU 36. AFTER TAU
36, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TURN BACK POLEWARD AS IT BEGINS TO
INTERACT WITH AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH, AND RAPIDLY
DISSIPATE DUE TO INTERACTION WITH MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN ALONG THE
COAST OF EASTERN CHINA. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GFDN WHICH IS AN OUTLIER AND TRACKS
THE SYSTEM ERRONEOUSLY WESTWARD. THIS FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY EAST OF
CONSENSUS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS GFDN, AND IS WITHIN THE TIGHT MODEL
PACKING OF WBAR, NGPS, JGSM, ECMWF, AND GFS.//
NNNN

[supercane]

Shear analysis shows less shear than I was anticipating based on prior microwave imagery:


Looks to be intensifying, but don't want to call an eye too early:


BTW, looking at HKO, Meranti, contributed from Malaysia, is "A type of tree, which is tall and big and yield good soft wood, is often used as building materials."

[Chacor]

WTPQ21 RJTD 090600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1010 MERANTI (1010)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 090600UTC 22.1N 119.1E FAIR
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 140NM SOUTHEAST 70NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 100600UTC 26.5N 118.4E 75NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

[Typhoon Hunter]

The eye is certainly there - looks good on radar:

[Chacor]

Permanent link to above radar image.

Clear eye there, nicely defined eyewall closed off now. 40 kt at 06z now appears way too low.

[KWT]

Yeah thats probably swomething between 60-65kts with the 1 min means maybe even higher, not sure what that'd work out as with regards to the 10 min wind speeds.

Very impressive how quickly its wrapped itself up though thats for sure!

[Chacor]

JTWC had it at just 45 knots at 09z:

WTPN31 PGTW 090900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 11W (MERANTI) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090600Z --- NEAR 22.2N 119.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 355 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.2N 119.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 23.6N 119.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 25.8N 118.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 27.9N 118.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
090900Z POSITION NEAR 22.5N 119.2E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 11W (MERANTI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 210 NM
SOUTHWEST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND
A 090533Z AMSRE MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING
EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A RADAR FIX FROM TAIWAN AND
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON KNES AND RJTD DVORAK ESTIMATE OF
45 KNOTS. A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELL HAS
CONTINUED TO MOVE FARTHER NORTHWESTWARD, WHICH HAS ALLOWED IMPROVED
POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND DECREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TS 11W IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-
LEVEL STEERING RIDGE AND SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL OVER SOUTHEASTERN
CHINA BY TAU 24. BY TAU 36, TS MERANTI IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER
THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF CHINA. UNDER THE INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, TS 11W SHOULD INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY BEFORE
REACHING LAND. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF THE UKMO MODEL WHICH ERRONEOUSLY TRACKS THE SYSTEM
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS TAIWAN. THIS FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY WEST OF
CONSENSUS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UKMO MODEL AND IS WITHIN THE TIGHT
MODEL PACKING OF WBAR, ECMWF, NOGAPS, GFDN, JGSM, AND GFS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
091500Z, 092100Z, 100300Z AND 100900Z.//

So they pretty much ignored the eye despite acknowledging its existence and went with Dvorak.

[Chacor]

Yep, that's a 45 knot storm all right... </sarcasm>

[Chacor]

JMA holding at 40 knots; Taiwan's CWB up to 23 m/s (44 kt).

WTPQ21 RJTD 091200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1010 MERANTI (1010)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 091200UTC 23.0N 118.9E FAIR
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 140NM SOUTHEAST 70NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 101200UTC 27.2N 119.0E 85NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Tropical Storm MERANTI (1010)
1200UTC 09 September 2010
Center Location 23.1N 118.9E
Movement NNW 19km/hr
Minimum Pressure 990hPa
Maximum Wind Speed 23m/s
Gust 30m/s
Radius of 15m/s 100km
Radius of 25m/s -km

[KWT]

45kts!!

Jeez talk about an underestimate, no doubt thats closer to 65kts then 45kts right now, thats probably a Minimal Typhoon IMO!

[HURAKAN]

latest

[HURAKAN]

eye visible

[Macrocane]

No way this is 45 kt, it is at least 70 kt with that structure.

[Chacor]

Pinhole-like eye on IR?


Thankfully, JTWC/NRL are up to 65 knots.

[KWT]

Yeah its probably undergoing RI right now given the pinhole eye that has developed.