WPAC: Ex-Tropical Storm MERANTI (1010/11W)

[StormingB81]

[img][/img]

[StormingB81]

[img][/img]

[supercane]

[StormingB81]

looks a little better...but with it being so close to land proly wont do much but yet it isnt really movign either..what do u think?

[supercane]

There is some model support, but nothing that well organized (microwave not impressive), so still has a way to go.

[StormingB81]

I think this thing is just staying stationary..which I dont know if it will help it or hurt it

[StormingB81]

Looking at the radar....Looks like we may have some convection in there but still doesnt look good..But thats my opinion.. I am just looking at a radar

[StormingB81]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA AT 23N 124E ALMOST STATIONARY.


JMA has it as a Tropical Depression

[StormingB81]

Latest..

[img][/img]

[supercane]

Good catch, StormingB81, and nice work with including the images.

12Z JMA analysis:
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA AT 23N 124E ALMOST STATIONARY.

JTWC also added it to the significant tropical weather advisory:
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 24.6N 124.4E,
APPROXIMATELY 210 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF OKINAWA, JAPAN. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FLARING CONVECTION OVER A
DISORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS DECREASE AS THE
TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH, PREVIOUSLY DIRECTLY ALOFT, HAS
BEEN MOVING NORTHWARD. ADDITIONALLY, THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN AN
AREA OF HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT. NEARBY
OBSERVATIONS ARE REPORTING PRESSURES 0F 1005 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. DUE TO THE FAVORABLE UPPER
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, BUT ONLY A DEVELOPING LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS POOR.

Latest IR:


ASCAT shows a broad elongated area of cyclonic spin associated with the monsoon trough.

[StormingB81]

Looks like it is moving SSW...And with the wind shear that is probably the only place it could go if it wants to develop but seeing how it is so close to land whereever it moves I dont see that much stregnthening at all..

[dhoeze]

for the past 3 hours, my amateur eyes is telling me this going south south east

[supercane]

Center exposed:


Latest microwave:

[StormingB81]

for the past 3 hours, my amateur eyes is telling me this going south south east

Now I look at it you are right....It still looks very poor with it right near land I think the rain will be a problem more then anything but I seen these things do crazy stuff before so..

[StormingB81]

SUpercane Thanks...once I found out to do it it was muc heasier then I though and it is much clearer with images then a link.

[supercane]

Quasi-stationary now. As long as it doesn't go over Taiwan, land may not be much of a factor (see Namtheun last month). Models suggest a general westward drift, as seen below, including the ECMWF (go to this link).

[supercane]

00Z JMA analysis:
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA AT 23N 124E ALMOST STATIONARY.

And KNES Dvorak:TXPN26 KNES 070350
SIMWIR
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (90W)
B. 07/0232Z
C. 22.5N
D. 123.5E
E. THREE/MTSAT
F. T1.5/1.5/D1.5/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/SSMIS
H. REMARKS...BANDING MEASURES 3/10 FOR DT OF 1.5. MET IS 1.0. PT IS
1.5. FT BASED ON DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
06/2253Z 22.8N 123.8E SSMIS
...MS
=

[StormingB81]

WOnder where it will move... NOAA says west that wil lbe bad for tawian

[supercane]

ABPW10 PGTW 070600
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/070600Z-080600ZSEP2010//
REF/A/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/070159ZSEP2010//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 070000Z, TROPICAL STORM 10W (MALOU)
<snip>
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 24.6N
124.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 123.4E, APPROXIMATELY 130 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF ISHIGAKIJIMA, JAPAN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A FULLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH DISORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED ABOUT 100 NM SOUTHWEST OF
THE CENTER. OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS, THE LLCC HAS BECOME SLIGHTLY
WEAKER AND CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED. A 070048Z ASCAT IMAGE
AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM ROIG INDICATE 10-15 KNOT WINDS NEAR
THE CENTER AND SLP NEAR 1005 MB (24-HOUR PRESSURE DECREASE OF 1 MB).
ADDITIONAL OBSERVATIONS INDICATE 15-20 KNOT WINDS ON THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH MODERATE (20 KNOTS) NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE
ENVIRONMENT IS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPROVE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO
AN APPROACHING (LARGE) TUTT CELL EVIDENT ON ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.

[KWT]

Hmmm yep a nice and exposed circulation there but I can understand the JMA upgrading it to TD status.