TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102010
0300 UTC MON SEP 06 2010
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
COAST OF MEXICO FROM TAMPICO TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM TAMPICO TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24
TO 36 HOURS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 95.2W AT 06/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 5 DEGREES AT 6 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 95.2W AT 06/0300Z
AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 95.1W
FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 21.6N 95.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 45NE 45SE 0SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 23.3N 96.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 24.7N 98.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 26.4N 99.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 30.0N 100.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.7N 95.2W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0900Z
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BRENNAN
ATL: HERMINE - Advisories
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ATL: HERMINE - Advisories
Last edited by Brent on Mon Sep 06, 2010 3:49 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Depression Ten Advisories
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102010
1000 PM CDT SUN SEP 05 2010
...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF MEXICO...
SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.7N 95.2W
ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM SE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 200 MI...325 KM ESE OF TAMPICO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
COAST OF MEXICO FROM TAMPICO TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM TAMPICO TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24
TO 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.2 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED
BY LATE MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE
DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO
IN THE WARNING AREA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED PRIOR TO LANDFALL...AND THE
DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON MONDAY.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES...
BASED ON REPORTS FROM NOAA BUOY 42055.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE WARNING
AREA MONDAY NIGHT.
RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO INTO SOUTH
TEXAS WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOOD AND
MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEASTERN
MEXICO.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 AM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BRENNAN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102010
1000 PM CDT SUN SEP 05 2010
...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF MEXICO...
SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.7N 95.2W
ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM SE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 200 MI...325 KM ESE OF TAMPICO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
COAST OF MEXICO FROM TAMPICO TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM TAMPICO TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24
TO 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.2 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED
BY LATE MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE
DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO
IN THE WARNING AREA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED PRIOR TO LANDFALL...AND THE
DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON MONDAY.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES...
BASED ON REPORTS FROM NOAA BUOY 42055.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE WARNING
AREA MONDAY NIGHT.
RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO INTO SOUTH
TEXAS WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOOD AND
MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEASTERN
MEXICO.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 AM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BRENNAN
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Brent
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Re: ATL: Tropical Depression TEN - Advisories
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102010
1000 PM CDT SUN SEP 05 2010
THE SMALL LOW PRESSURE AREA IN THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO HAS DEVELOPED ENOUGH ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO WARRANT IT BEING
DECLARED A TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIS EVENING. CURVED BANDS ARE
READILY APPARENT ON THE ALVARADO MEXICO RADAR SITE...AND A 2340 UTC
WINDSAT PASS ALSO SHOWS A DISTINCT CURVED BAND SIGNATURE. SATELLITE
CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB/SAB ARE BOTH T1.5...25 KT...AND THIS WILL
BE USED AS THE INITIAL INTENSITY. CONDITIONS APPEAR QUITE FAVORABLE
FOR INTENSIFICATION UNTIL LANDFALL DUE TO VERY WARM WATER AND LIGHT
WIND SHEAR. ALL OF THE MODELS EXCEPT THE HWRF SHOW STRENGTHENING
AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 005/6. THE CYCLONE SHOULD
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST TOMORROW AND INCREASE
ITS FORWARD SPEED AS MIDDLE-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THIS SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES ON WHEN THE
LEFT TURN OCCURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES NEAR THE DYNAMICAL
MODEL CONSENSUS...AND IS A LITTLE NORTH OF THE GFS MODEL.
THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST REQUIRES THE ISSUANCE OF TROPICAL
STORM WARNINGS FOR A PORTION OF THE MEXICAN COAST AT THIS TIME.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 06/0300Z 20.7N 95.2W 25 KT
12HR VT 06/1200Z 21.6N 95.4W 35 KT
24HR VT 07/0000Z 23.3N 96.9W 45 KT
36HR VT 07/1200Z 24.7N 98.4W 30 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 08/0000Z 26.4N 99.9W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72HR VT 09/0000Z 30.0N 100.5W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96HR VT 10/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BRENNAN
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102010
1000 PM CDT SUN SEP 05 2010
THE SMALL LOW PRESSURE AREA IN THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO HAS DEVELOPED ENOUGH ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO WARRANT IT BEING
DECLARED A TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIS EVENING. CURVED BANDS ARE
READILY APPARENT ON THE ALVARADO MEXICO RADAR SITE...AND A 2340 UTC
WINDSAT PASS ALSO SHOWS A DISTINCT CURVED BAND SIGNATURE. SATELLITE
CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB/SAB ARE BOTH T1.5...25 KT...AND THIS WILL
BE USED AS THE INITIAL INTENSITY. CONDITIONS APPEAR QUITE FAVORABLE
FOR INTENSIFICATION UNTIL LANDFALL DUE TO VERY WARM WATER AND LIGHT
WIND SHEAR. ALL OF THE MODELS EXCEPT THE HWRF SHOW STRENGTHENING
AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 005/6. THE CYCLONE SHOULD
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST TOMORROW AND INCREASE
ITS FORWARD SPEED AS MIDDLE-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THIS SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES ON WHEN THE
LEFT TURN OCCURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES NEAR THE DYNAMICAL
MODEL CONSENSUS...AND IS A LITTLE NORTH OF THE GFS MODEL.
THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST REQUIRES THE ISSUANCE OF TROPICAL
STORM WARNINGS FOR A PORTION OF THE MEXICAN COAST AT THIS TIME.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 06/0300Z 20.7N 95.2W 25 KT
12HR VT 06/1200Z 21.6N 95.4W 35 KT
24HR VT 07/0000Z 23.3N 96.9W 45 KT
36HR VT 07/1200Z 24.7N 98.4W 30 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 08/0000Z 26.4N 99.9W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72HR VT 09/0000Z 30.0N 100.5W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96HR VT 10/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BRENNAN
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Brent
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Re: ATL: Tropical Depression TEN - Advisories
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102010
100 AM CDT MON SEP 06 2010
...DEPRESSION A LITTLE STRONGER...
SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.9N 95.0W
ABOUT 270 MI...430 KM SE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 205 MI...335 KM ESE OF TAMPICO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM TAMPICO TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
ABOUT 24 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.0 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED
BY LATE TODAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION
IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO IN THE
WARNING AREA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
DATA FROM A NOAA BUOY IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO INDICATE
THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH...
55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
EXPECTED PRIOR TO LANDFALL...AND THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE WARNING
AREA MONDAY NIGHT.
RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO INTO SOUTH
TEXAS WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOOD AND
MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEASTERN
MEXICO.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BERG
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102010
100 AM CDT MON SEP 06 2010
...DEPRESSION A LITTLE STRONGER...
SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.9N 95.0W
ABOUT 270 MI...430 KM SE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 205 MI...335 KM ESE OF TAMPICO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM TAMPICO TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
ABOUT 24 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.0 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED
BY LATE TODAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION
IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO IN THE
WARNING AREA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
DATA FROM A NOAA BUOY IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO INDICATE
THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH...
55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
EXPECTED PRIOR TO LANDFALL...AND THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE WARNING
AREA MONDAY NIGHT.
RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO INTO SOUTH
TEXAS WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOOD AND
MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEASTERN
MEXICO.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BERG
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Brent
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Re: ATL: Tropical Depression TEN - Advisories
TROPICAL STORM HERMINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102010
0900 UTC MON SEP 06 2010
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF SOUTH
TEXAS FROM THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO BAFFIN BAY.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM TAMPICO TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE
* THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO BAFFIN BAY
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
ABOUT 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 95.0W AT 06/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 95.0W AT 06/0900Z
AT 06/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 94.8W
FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 22.9N 95.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 24.9N 97.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 30SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 26.8N 98.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 28.8N 99.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 33.2N 99.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.6N 95.0W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/1500Z
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
NNNN
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102010
0900 UTC MON SEP 06 2010
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF SOUTH
TEXAS FROM THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO BAFFIN BAY.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM TAMPICO TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE
* THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO BAFFIN BAY
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
ABOUT 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 95.0W AT 06/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 95.0W AT 06/0900Z
AT 06/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 94.8W
FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 22.9N 95.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 24.9N 97.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 30SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 26.8N 98.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 28.8N 99.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 33.2N 99.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.6N 95.0W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/1500Z
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
NNNN
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Brent
- S2K Supporter
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm HERMINE - Advisories
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HERMINE ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102010
400 AM CDT MON SEP 06 2010
...DEPRESSION BECOMES THE EIGHTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE 2010 ATLANTIC
HURRICANE SEASON...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR SOUTH TEXAS...
SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.6N 95.0W
ABOUT 235 MI...375 KM SE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM ESE OF TAMPICO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF SOUTH
TEXAS FROM THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO BAFFIN BAY.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM TAMPICO TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE
* THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO BAFFIN BAY
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
ABOUT 24 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HERMINE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.0 WEST. HERMINE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED TODAY. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF HERMINE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH
THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO OR EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS IN THE
WARNING AREA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST PRIOR TO LANDFALL.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE WARNING
AREA TONIGHT.
STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1 TO
2 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE
NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO INTO SOUTH
TEXAS WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOOD AND
MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEASTERN
MEXICO.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 AM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BERG
TROPICAL STORM HERMINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102010
400 AM CDT MON SEP 06 2010
A SERIES OF MICROWAVE OVERPASSES AND ASCAT DATA SHOW THAT THE CENTER
OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS A LITTLE NORTHEAST OF EARLIER ESTIMATES.
ASCAT...WHICH HAS A WELL DOCUMENTED LOW BIAS...REVEALED SEVERAL
30-KT WIND VECTORS TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER...AND
NOAA BUOY 42055 HAS REPORTED PEAK 1-MINUTE SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN
30 AND 35 KT DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. BASED ON THESE DATA THE
SYSTEM IS UPGRADED TO A 35-KT TROPICAL STORM....THE EIGHTH OF THE
2010 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON. HERMINE IS FORECAST TO TRAVERSE
WARM WATER AND REMAIN IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT UNTIL LANDFALL. AS
A RESULT...STEADY STRENGTHENING IS PREDICTED AND THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST IS NEAR THE CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE.
THE SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/7. HERMINE IS
FORECAST TO TURN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TODAY AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. WHILE THE TRACK MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...THE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED
NORTHWARD WHICH HAS REQUIRED A NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THE TRACK
FORECAST. THERE ARE ALSO NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCES IN THE PREDICTED
FORWARD SPEED OF HERMINE...WITH THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOWING A FASTER
MOTION THAN THE GFDL/HWRF. FOR NOW...THE FORECAST FORWARD MOTION OF
THE CYCLONE IS CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS.
THE NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE TRACK FORECAST REQUIRED THE ISSUANCE
OF A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTH TEXAS COAST.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 06/0900Z 21.6N 95.0W 35 KT
12HR VT 06/1800Z 22.9N 95.8W 45 KT
24HR VT 07/0600Z 24.9N 97.2W 50 KT
36HR VT 07/1800Z 26.8N 98.4W 35 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 08/0600Z 28.8N 99.7W 25 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 09/0600Z 33.2N 99.6W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96HR VT 10/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
TROPICAL STORM HERMINE ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102010
400 AM CDT MON SEP 06 2010
...DEPRESSION BECOMES THE EIGHTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE 2010 ATLANTIC
HURRICANE SEASON...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR SOUTH TEXAS...
SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.6N 95.0W
ABOUT 235 MI...375 KM SE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM ESE OF TAMPICO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF SOUTH
TEXAS FROM THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO BAFFIN BAY.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM TAMPICO TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE
* THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO BAFFIN BAY
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
ABOUT 24 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HERMINE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.0 WEST. HERMINE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED TODAY. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF HERMINE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH
THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO OR EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS IN THE
WARNING AREA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST PRIOR TO LANDFALL.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE WARNING
AREA TONIGHT.
STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1 TO
2 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE
NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO INTO SOUTH
TEXAS WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOOD AND
MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEASTERN
MEXICO.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 AM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BERG
TROPICAL STORM HERMINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102010
400 AM CDT MON SEP 06 2010
A SERIES OF MICROWAVE OVERPASSES AND ASCAT DATA SHOW THAT THE CENTER
OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS A LITTLE NORTHEAST OF EARLIER ESTIMATES.
ASCAT...WHICH HAS A WELL DOCUMENTED LOW BIAS...REVEALED SEVERAL
30-KT WIND VECTORS TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER...AND
NOAA BUOY 42055 HAS REPORTED PEAK 1-MINUTE SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN
30 AND 35 KT DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. BASED ON THESE DATA THE
SYSTEM IS UPGRADED TO A 35-KT TROPICAL STORM....THE EIGHTH OF THE
2010 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON. HERMINE IS FORECAST TO TRAVERSE
WARM WATER AND REMAIN IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT UNTIL LANDFALL. AS
A RESULT...STEADY STRENGTHENING IS PREDICTED AND THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST IS NEAR THE CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE.
THE SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/7. HERMINE IS
FORECAST TO TURN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TODAY AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. WHILE THE TRACK MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...THE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED
NORTHWARD WHICH HAS REQUIRED A NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THE TRACK
FORECAST. THERE ARE ALSO NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCES IN THE PREDICTED
FORWARD SPEED OF HERMINE...WITH THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOWING A FASTER
MOTION THAN THE GFDL/HWRF. FOR NOW...THE FORECAST FORWARD MOTION OF
THE CYCLONE IS CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS.
THE NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE TRACK FORECAST REQUIRED THE ISSUANCE
OF A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTH TEXAS COAST.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 06/0900Z 21.6N 95.0W 35 KT
12HR VT 06/1800Z 22.9N 95.8W 45 KT
24HR VT 07/0600Z 24.9N 97.2W 50 KT
36HR VT 07/1800Z 26.8N 98.4W 35 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 08/0600Z 28.8N 99.7W 25 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 09/0600Z 33.2N 99.6W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96HR VT 10/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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-
WeatherGuesser
- Category 5
- Posts: 2672
- Joined: Tue Jun 29, 2010 6:46 am
OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
430 AM CDT MON SEP 06 2010
OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.
GMZ080-061530-
NW GULF N OF 25N W OF 90W
INCLUDING THE FLOWER GARDEN BANKS NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY
430 AM CDT MON SEP 06 2010
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING S OF 28N W OF 95W...
.TODAY THROUGH TUE...SE TO S WINDS 15 TO 20 KT INCREASING TO 20
TO 25 KT BY NOON...THEN INCREASING TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WITHIN 90 NM NE AND 60 NM SE QUADRANTS AND 30 NM W SEMICIRCLE OF
CENTER. HIGHEST WINDS 50 KT GUSTS 60 KT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER
WITHIN 180 NM NE AND 60 NM SE QUADRANTS AND 30 NM W SEMICIRCLE
WITH SEAS TO 15 FT. ELSEWHERE 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF 28N.
.TUE NIGHT...E TO SE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS W OF 94W EARLY.
.WED...E TO SE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT.
.THU AND FRI...E TO SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT.
$$
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
430 AM CDT MON SEP 06 2010
OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.
GMZ080-061530-
NW GULF N OF 25N W OF 90W
INCLUDING THE FLOWER GARDEN BANKS NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY
430 AM CDT MON SEP 06 2010
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING S OF 28N W OF 95W...
.TODAY THROUGH TUE...SE TO S WINDS 15 TO 20 KT INCREASING TO 20
TO 25 KT BY NOON...THEN INCREASING TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WITHIN 90 NM NE AND 60 NM SE QUADRANTS AND 30 NM W SEMICIRCLE OF
CENTER. HIGHEST WINDS 50 KT GUSTS 60 KT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER
WITHIN 180 NM NE AND 60 NM SE QUADRANTS AND 30 NM W SEMICIRCLE
WITH SEAS TO 15 FT. ELSEWHERE 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF 28N.
.TUE NIGHT...E TO SE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS W OF 94W EARLY.
.WED...E TO SE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT.
.THU AND FRI...E TO SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT.
$$
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139067
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ATL: Tropical Storm HERMINE - Advisories
WTNT35 KNHC 061140
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HERMINE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102010
700 AM CDT MON SEP 06 2010
...HERMINE A LITTLE STRONGER AS IT HEADS NORTHWARD...
SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.4N 95.3W
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM ESE OF TAMPICO MEXICO
ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM SSE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM TAMPICO TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE
* THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO BAFFIN BAY
ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN TEXAS LATER TODAY.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
ABOUT 24 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HERMINE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.3 WEST. HERMINE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF HERMINE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH
THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO OR EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS IN THE
WARNING AREA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST PRIOR TO LANDFALL.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE WARNING
AREA TONIGHT.
STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1 TO
2 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE
NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
RAINFALL...HERMINE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
4 TO 8 INCHES OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND SOUTH TEXAS WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS MAY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOOD AND MUDSLIDES...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/CANGIALOSI
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HERMINE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102010
700 AM CDT MON SEP 06 2010
...HERMINE A LITTLE STRONGER AS IT HEADS NORTHWARD...
SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.4N 95.3W
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM ESE OF TAMPICO MEXICO
ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM SSE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM TAMPICO TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE
* THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO BAFFIN BAY
ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN TEXAS LATER TODAY.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
ABOUT 24 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HERMINE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.3 WEST. HERMINE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF HERMINE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH
THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO OR EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS IN THE
WARNING AREA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST PRIOR TO LANDFALL.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE WARNING
AREA TONIGHT.
STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1 TO
2 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE
NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
RAINFALL...HERMINE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
4 TO 8 INCHES OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND SOUTH TEXAS WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS MAY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOOD AND MUDSLIDES...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/CANGIALOSI
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WeatherGuesser
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Advisories
Hurricane Local Statement for HERMINE
000
WTUS84 KBRO 061036
HLSBRO
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM HERMINE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
536 AM CDT MON SEP 6 2010
...DEPRESSION BECOMES THE EIGHTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE
2010 ATLANTIC
HURRICANE SEASON...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR SOUTH
TEXAS...
.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE AND MARINE INTERESTS IN SELECT
LOCATIONS AND COASTAL WATER LEGS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE GULF
OF MEXICO.
.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING
LOCATIONS...KENEDY...COASTAL WILLACY AND COASTAL CAMERON.
A TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING
LOCATIONS...ZAPATA...JIM HOGG...BROOKS...STARR...HIDALGO...INLAND
WILLACY AND INLAND CAMERON.
FOR MARINE INTERESTS...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
ALL OF GULF WATERS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.
ALTHOUGH TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE NOT IN EFFECT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...ZAPATA...JIM HOGG...BROOKS...
STARR...HIDALGO...INLAND WILLACY AND INLAND CAMERON...POSSIBLE
IMPACTS FROM RELATED HAZARDS ARE STILL A CONCERN.
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.
PLEASE LISTEN CLOSELY FOR ANY FLOOD WARNINGS THAT MIGHT BE IN
EFFECT FOR YOUR AREA.
Remainder (it's a bit long): http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/WTUS84-KBRO.shtml
000
WTUS84 KBRO 061036
HLSBRO
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM HERMINE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
536 AM CDT MON SEP 6 2010
...DEPRESSION BECOMES THE EIGHTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE
2010 ATLANTIC
HURRICANE SEASON...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR SOUTH
TEXAS...
.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE AND MARINE INTERESTS IN SELECT
LOCATIONS AND COASTAL WATER LEGS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE GULF
OF MEXICO.
.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING
LOCATIONS...KENEDY...COASTAL WILLACY AND COASTAL CAMERON.
A TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING
LOCATIONS...ZAPATA...JIM HOGG...BROOKS...STARR...HIDALGO...INLAND
WILLACY AND INLAND CAMERON.
FOR MARINE INTERESTS...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
ALL OF GULF WATERS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.
ALTHOUGH TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE NOT IN EFFECT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...ZAPATA...JIM HOGG...BROOKS...
STARR...HIDALGO...INLAND WILLACY AND INLAND CAMERON...POSSIBLE
IMPACTS FROM RELATED HAZARDS ARE STILL A CONCERN.
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.
PLEASE LISTEN CLOSELY FOR ANY FLOOD WARNINGS THAT MIGHT BE IN
EFFECT FOR YOUR AREA.
Remainder (it's a bit long): http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/WTUS84-KBRO.shtml
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Advisories
000
WTNT35 KNHC 061431
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HERMINE ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102010
1000 AM CDT MON SEP 06 2010
...HERMINE STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE...NEW WATCHES AND WARNINGS
ISSUED...
SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.4N 95.8W
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM ESE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 205 MI...325 KM SSE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FROM RIO SAN
FERNANDO NORTHWARD TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE...AND A HURRICANE
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE NORTHWARD TO
BAFFIN BAY TEXAS.
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO PORT
OCONNOR.
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
SOUTH OF LA CRUZ.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* RIO SAN FERNANDO MEXICO NORTHWARD TO BAFFIN BAY TEXAS
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LA CRUZ MEXICO NORTHWARD TO PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN ABOUT 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
ABOUT 24 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HERMINE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.8 WEST. HERMINE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF HERMINE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH
THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO OR EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS IN THE
WARNING AREA TONIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
AND HERMINE COULD APPROACH HURRICANE STRENGTH PRIOR TO LANDFALL.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE WARNING
AREA LATER TODAY.
STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2 TO
4 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE
NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
RAINFALL...HERMINE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
4 TO 8 INCHES OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND SOUTH TEXAS WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOOD AND MUDSLIDES.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 PM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/CANGIALOSI
000
WTNT45 KNHC 061431
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM HERMINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102010
1000 AM CDT MON SEP 06 2010
HERMINE HAS STRENGTHENED THIS MORNING. GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THAT VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS HAVE BECOME CONCENTRATED
NEAR THE ESTIMATED CENTER LOCATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET
AT 45 KT BASED ON THE LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB.
VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE 10 KT OR LESS TODAY AND TONIGHT
AND THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS FORECAST SHOWS THE CYCLONE
APPROACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 12 TO 24 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL
WIND SPEED FORECAST IS ADJUSTED UPWARD ACCORDINGLY. AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE
HERMINE IN A COUPLE OF HOURS...AND SHOULD PROVIDE A MORE ACCURATE
ASSESSMENT OF THE INTENSITY.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 340/11...A LITTLE FASTER THAN BEFORE. HERMINE
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD WITH A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS THE STORM MOVES ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE LATEST NHC TRACK FORECAST
IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
DUE TO THE LIMITATIONS IN FORECASTING TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY
CHANGE...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN TEXAS
COAST TO ACKNOWLEDGE THE POSSIBILITY THAT HERMINE COULD STRENGTHEN
MORE THAN EXPECTED.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 06/1500Z 23.4N 95.8W 45 KT
12HR VT 07/0000Z 24.9N 96.9W 60 KT
24HR VT 07/1200Z 27.0N 98.3W 55 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 08/0000Z 29.1N 99.6W 30 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 08/1200Z 31.4N 100.4W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72HR VT 09/1200Z 36.0N 99.0W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96HR VT 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/CANGIALOSI
WTNT35 KNHC 061431
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HERMINE ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102010
1000 AM CDT MON SEP 06 2010
...HERMINE STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE...NEW WATCHES AND WARNINGS
ISSUED...
SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.4N 95.8W
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM ESE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 205 MI...325 KM SSE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FROM RIO SAN
FERNANDO NORTHWARD TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE...AND A HURRICANE
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE NORTHWARD TO
BAFFIN BAY TEXAS.
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO PORT
OCONNOR.
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
SOUTH OF LA CRUZ.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* RIO SAN FERNANDO MEXICO NORTHWARD TO BAFFIN BAY TEXAS
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LA CRUZ MEXICO NORTHWARD TO PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN ABOUT 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
ABOUT 24 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HERMINE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.8 WEST. HERMINE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF HERMINE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH
THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO OR EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS IN THE
WARNING AREA TONIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
AND HERMINE COULD APPROACH HURRICANE STRENGTH PRIOR TO LANDFALL.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE WARNING
AREA LATER TODAY.
STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2 TO
4 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE
NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
RAINFALL...HERMINE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
4 TO 8 INCHES OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND SOUTH TEXAS WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOOD AND MUDSLIDES.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 PM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/CANGIALOSI
000
WTNT45 KNHC 061431
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM HERMINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102010
1000 AM CDT MON SEP 06 2010
HERMINE HAS STRENGTHENED THIS MORNING. GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THAT VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS HAVE BECOME CONCENTRATED
NEAR THE ESTIMATED CENTER LOCATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET
AT 45 KT BASED ON THE LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB.
VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE 10 KT OR LESS TODAY AND TONIGHT
AND THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS FORECAST SHOWS THE CYCLONE
APPROACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 12 TO 24 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL
WIND SPEED FORECAST IS ADJUSTED UPWARD ACCORDINGLY. AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE
HERMINE IN A COUPLE OF HOURS...AND SHOULD PROVIDE A MORE ACCURATE
ASSESSMENT OF THE INTENSITY.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 340/11...A LITTLE FASTER THAN BEFORE. HERMINE
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD WITH A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS THE STORM MOVES ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE LATEST NHC TRACK FORECAST
IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
DUE TO THE LIMITATIONS IN FORECASTING TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY
CHANGE...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN TEXAS
COAST TO ACKNOWLEDGE THE POSSIBILITY THAT HERMINE COULD STRENGTHEN
MORE THAN EXPECTED.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 06/1500Z 23.4N 95.8W 45 KT
12HR VT 07/0000Z 24.9N 96.9W 60 KT
24HR VT 07/1200Z 27.0N 98.3W 55 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 08/0000Z 29.1N 99.6W 30 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 08/1200Z 31.4N 100.4W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72HR VT 09/1200Z 36.0N 99.0W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96HR VT 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/CANGIALOSI
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139067
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ATL: HERMINE - Advisories
KNHC 061732
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HERMINE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102010
100 PM CDT MON SEP 06 2010
...HERMINE STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE AS IT HEADS FOR THE WESTERN
GULF COAST...
SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.1N 96.5W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM ENE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM SSE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* RIO SAN FERNANDO MEXICO NORTHWARD TO BAFFIN BAY TEXAS
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LA CRUZ MEXICO NORTHWARD TO PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN ABOUT 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
ABOUT 24 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HERMINE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.5 WEST. HERMINE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF HERMINE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH
THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO OR EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS IN THE
WARNING AREA TONIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
AND HERMINE COULD APPROACH HURRICANE STRENGTH PRIOR TO LANDFALL.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB...29.38 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE WARNING
AREA LATER TODAY.
STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2 TO
4 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE
NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
RAINFALL...HERMINE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
4 TO 8 INCHES OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND SOUTH TEXAS WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOOD AND MUDSLIDES.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/CANGIALOSI
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HERMINE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102010
100 PM CDT MON SEP 06 2010
...HERMINE STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE AS IT HEADS FOR THE WESTERN
GULF COAST...
SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.1N 96.5W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM ENE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM SSE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* RIO SAN FERNANDO MEXICO NORTHWARD TO BAFFIN BAY TEXAS
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LA CRUZ MEXICO NORTHWARD TO PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN ABOUT 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
ABOUT 24 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HERMINE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.5 WEST. HERMINE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF HERMINE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH
THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO OR EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS IN THE
WARNING AREA TONIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
AND HERMINE COULD APPROACH HURRICANE STRENGTH PRIOR TO LANDFALL.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB...29.38 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE WARNING
AREA LATER TODAY.
STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2 TO
4 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE
NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
RAINFALL...HERMINE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
4 TO 8 INCHES OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND SOUTH TEXAS WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOOD AND MUDSLIDES.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/CANGIALOSI
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Brent
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 37094
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Advisories
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HERMINE ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102010
400 PM CDT MON SEP 06 2010
...HERMINE NEARING THE COAST...SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL TONIGHT...
SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.5N 97.0W
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM NE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 100 MI...165 KM SSE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* RIO SAN FERNANDO MEXICO NORTHWARD TO BAFFIN BAY TEXAS
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LA CRUZ MEXICO NORTHWARD TO PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN ABOUT 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
ABOUT 24 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HERMINE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.0 WEST. HERMINE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER WILL MAKE LANDFALL ON THE COAST OF
NORTHEASTERN MEXICO OR EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS IN THE WARNING AREA
TONIGHT...AND MOVE INLAND OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS ON TUESDAY AND INTO
CENTRAL TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE...AND HERMINE COULD APPROACH
HURRICANE STRENGTH PRIOR TO LANDFALL.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER IS 992 MB...29.29 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE WARNING
AREA LATER TODAY.
STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2 TO
4 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE
NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
RAINFALL...HERMINE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
4 TO 8 INCHES OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND SOUTH TEXAS WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOOD AND MUDSLIDES.
TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE TEXAS COAST BEGINNING THIS EVENING...AND CONTINUING
OVERNIGHT.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 PM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/CANGIALOSI
TROPICAL STORM HERMINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102010
2100 UTC MON SEP 06 2010
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* RIO SAN FERNANDO MEXICO NORTHWARD TO BAFFIN BAY TEXAS
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LA CRUZ MEXICO NORTHWARD TO PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN ABOUT 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
ABOUT 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 97.0W AT 06/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 13 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 20SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 90SE 30SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 97.0W AT 06/2100Z
AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.1N 96.6W
FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 26.2N 98.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 0SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 28.5N 99.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 30.7N 100.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 33.0N 100.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.
FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 38.0N 98.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.5N 97.0W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0300Z
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/CANGIALOSI
TROPICAL STORM HERMINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102010
400 PM CDT MON SEP 06 2010
LATEST AIRCRAFT...RADAR...AND SATELLITE FIXES INDICATE THAT THE
MOTION OF HERMINE IS SLIGHTLY LEFT OF AND FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS
ESTIMATES...AROUND 330/13. THIS SUGGESTS THAT THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE
TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE STORM IS A LITTLE STRONGER THAN EARLIER
THOUGHT. HERMINE IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED A BIT TO THE WEST AND SHOWS THE CENTER
CROSSING THE COAST EARLIER THAN IN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. THIS IS
CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS TRACK.
THE AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTERS FOUND MAXIMUM
SFMR-OBSERVED WINDS OF 47 KT OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE
STORM...AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 50 KT.
BROWNSVILLE WSR-88D RADAR IMAGERY DOES SHOW AN EYE...BUT THE EYEWALL
IS NOT YET WELL DEFINED. ALTHOUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC
ENVIRONMENTS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING...BASED ON THE LATEST
TRACK FORECAST...THERE IS NOT MUCH TIME LEFT FOR HERMINE TO
INTENSIFY BEFORE THE CENTER CROSSES THE COASTLINE. HOWEVER THE
CYCLONE COULD STILL APPROACH HURRICANE INTENSITY BEFORE
LANDFALL...SO THE HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE EXTREME
NORTHEAST MEXICO AND EXTREME SOUTH TEXAS COAST.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 06/2100Z 24.5N 97.0W 50 KT
12HR VT 07/0600Z 26.2N 98.3W 55 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 07/1800Z 28.5N 99.6W 30 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 08/0600Z 30.7N 100.4W 25 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 08/1800Z 33.0N 100.5W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72HR VT 09/1800Z 38.0N 98.5W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96HR VT 10/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/CANGIALOSI
TROPICAL STORM HERMINE ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102010
400 PM CDT MON SEP 06 2010
...HERMINE NEARING THE COAST...SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL TONIGHT...
SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.5N 97.0W
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM NE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 100 MI...165 KM SSE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* RIO SAN FERNANDO MEXICO NORTHWARD TO BAFFIN BAY TEXAS
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LA CRUZ MEXICO NORTHWARD TO PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN ABOUT 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
ABOUT 24 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HERMINE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.0 WEST. HERMINE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER WILL MAKE LANDFALL ON THE COAST OF
NORTHEASTERN MEXICO OR EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS IN THE WARNING AREA
TONIGHT...AND MOVE INLAND OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS ON TUESDAY AND INTO
CENTRAL TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE...AND HERMINE COULD APPROACH
HURRICANE STRENGTH PRIOR TO LANDFALL.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER IS 992 MB...29.29 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE WARNING
AREA LATER TODAY.
STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2 TO
4 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE
NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
RAINFALL...HERMINE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
4 TO 8 INCHES OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND SOUTH TEXAS WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOOD AND MUDSLIDES.
TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE TEXAS COAST BEGINNING THIS EVENING...AND CONTINUING
OVERNIGHT.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 PM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/CANGIALOSI
TROPICAL STORM HERMINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102010
2100 UTC MON SEP 06 2010
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* RIO SAN FERNANDO MEXICO NORTHWARD TO BAFFIN BAY TEXAS
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LA CRUZ MEXICO NORTHWARD TO PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN ABOUT 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
ABOUT 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 97.0W AT 06/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 13 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 20SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 90SE 30SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 97.0W AT 06/2100Z
AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.1N 96.6W
FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 26.2N 98.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 0SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 28.5N 99.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 30.7N 100.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 33.0N 100.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.
FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 38.0N 98.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.5N 97.0W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0300Z
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/CANGIALOSI
TROPICAL STORM HERMINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102010
400 PM CDT MON SEP 06 2010
LATEST AIRCRAFT...RADAR...AND SATELLITE FIXES INDICATE THAT THE
MOTION OF HERMINE IS SLIGHTLY LEFT OF AND FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS
ESTIMATES...AROUND 330/13. THIS SUGGESTS THAT THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE
TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE STORM IS A LITTLE STRONGER THAN EARLIER
THOUGHT. HERMINE IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED A BIT TO THE WEST AND SHOWS THE CENTER
CROSSING THE COAST EARLIER THAN IN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. THIS IS
CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS TRACK.
THE AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTERS FOUND MAXIMUM
SFMR-OBSERVED WINDS OF 47 KT OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE
STORM...AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 50 KT.
BROWNSVILLE WSR-88D RADAR IMAGERY DOES SHOW AN EYE...BUT THE EYEWALL
IS NOT YET WELL DEFINED. ALTHOUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC
ENVIRONMENTS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING...BASED ON THE LATEST
TRACK FORECAST...THERE IS NOT MUCH TIME LEFT FOR HERMINE TO
INTENSIFY BEFORE THE CENTER CROSSES THE COASTLINE. HOWEVER THE
CYCLONE COULD STILL APPROACH HURRICANE INTENSITY BEFORE
LANDFALL...SO THE HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE EXTREME
NORTHEAST MEXICO AND EXTREME SOUTH TEXAS COAST.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 06/2100Z 24.5N 97.0W 50 KT
12HR VT 07/0600Z 26.2N 98.3W 55 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 07/1800Z 28.5N 99.6W 30 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 08/0600Z 30.7N 100.4W 25 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 08/1800Z 33.0N 100.5W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72HR VT 09/1800Z 38.0N 98.5W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96HR VT 10/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/CANGIALOSI
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#neversummer
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139067
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ATL: HERMINE - Advisories
000
WTNT35 KNHC 062345
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HERMINE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102010
700 PM CDT MON SEP 06 2010
...HERMINE STRENGTHENING AS IT NEARS THE COAST...
SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.8N 97.1W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM NNE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM SSE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* RIO SAN FERNANDO MEXICO NORTHWARD TO BAFFIN BAY TEXAS
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LA CRUZ MEXICO NORTHWARD TO PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES
...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HERMINE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.1 WEST. HERMINE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER WILL MAKE LANDFALL ON THE COAST OF
NORTHEASTERN MEXICO IN THE WARNING AREA TONIGHT...AND MOVE INLAND
OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS ON TUESDAY AND INTO CENTRAL TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY.
DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
POSSIBLE...AND HERMINE COULD APPROACH HURRICANE STRENGTH PRIOR TO
LANDFALL.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER IS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING IN THE WARNING AREA
AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.
STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2 TO
4 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE
NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
RAINFALL...HERMINE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
4 TO 8 INCHES OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND SOUTH TEXAS WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOOD AND MUDSLIDES.
TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE TEXAS COAST THIS EVENING...AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BRENNAN
WTNT35 KNHC 062345
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HERMINE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102010
700 PM CDT MON SEP 06 2010
...HERMINE STRENGTHENING AS IT NEARS THE COAST...
SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.8N 97.1W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM NNE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM SSE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* RIO SAN FERNANDO MEXICO NORTHWARD TO BAFFIN BAY TEXAS
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LA CRUZ MEXICO NORTHWARD TO PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES
...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HERMINE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.1 WEST. HERMINE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER WILL MAKE LANDFALL ON THE COAST OF
NORTHEASTERN MEXICO IN THE WARNING AREA TONIGHT...AND MOVE INLAND
OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS ON TUESDAY AND INTO CENTRAL TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY.
DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
POSSIBLE...AND HERMINE COULD APPROACH HURRICANE STRENGTH PRIOR TO
LANDFALL.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER IS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING IN THE WARNING AREA
AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.
STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2 TO
4 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE
NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
RAINFALL...HERMINE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
4 TO 8 INCHES OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND SOUTH TEXAS WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOOD AND MUDSLIDES.
TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE TEXAS COAST THIS EVENING...AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BRENNAN
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Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
000
WTNT65 KNHC 070138
TCUAT5
TROPICAL STORM HERMINE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102010
840 PM CDT MON SEP 06 2010
...HERMINE MAKES LANDFALL IN EXTREME NORTHEASTERN MEXICO...
DATA FROM THE NOAA DOPPLER RADAR IN BROWNSVILLE TEXAS INDICATE THAT
TROPICAL STORM HERMINE MADE LANDFALL AROUND 830 PM CDT...0130 UTC
...ALONG THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO ABOUT 40 MILES...65 KM
...SOUTH OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS AT LANDFALL
WERE ESTIMATED TO BE 65 MPH...100 KM/HR.
SUMMARY OF 830 PM CDT...0130 UTC...INFORMATION
--------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.3N 97.4W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM S OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM NNE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/BLAKE
WTNT65 KNHC 070138
TCUAT5
TROPICAL STORM HERMINE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102010
840 PM CDT MON SEP 06 2010
...HERMINE MAKES LANDFALL IN EXTREME NORTHEASTERN MEXICO...
DATA FROM THE NOAA DOPPLER RADAR IN BROWNSVILLE TEXAS INDICATE THAT
TROPICAL STORM HERMINE MADE LANDFALL AROUND 830 PM CDT...0130 UTC
...ALONG THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO ABOUT 40 MILES...65 KM
...SOUTH OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS AT LANDFALL
WERE ESTIMATED TO BE 65 MPH...100 KM/HR.
SUMMARY OF 830 PM CDT...0130 UTC...INFORMATION
--------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.3N 97.4W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM S OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM NNE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/BLAKE
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-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139067
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ATL: HERMINE - Advisories
000
WTNT35 KNHC 070233
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HERMINE ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102010
1000 PM CDT MON SEP 06 2010
...HERMINE MADE LANDFALL AS A STRONG TROPICAL STORM...PRODUCING
HEAVY RAINS OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND SOUTH TEXAS...
SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.5N 97.5W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM S OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM N OF LA PESCA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR
THE COAST OF MEXICO AND THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING SOUTH OF BAHIA
ALGODONES MEXICO.
THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE COAST OF TEXAS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BAHIA ALGODONES MEXICO NORTHWARD TO PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES
...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HERMINE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.5 WEST. HERMINE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...HERMINE WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE INLAND OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO TONIGHT...AND MOVE INTO
SOUTHERN TEXAS ON TUESDAY AND INTO CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY ON
WEDNESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR
...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST AND HERMINE
IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165
KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. A NATIONAL OCEAN SERVICE
OBSERVING SITE IN MALAQUITE BEACH TEXAS RECENTLY REPORTED A
SUSTAINED WIND OF 41 MPH...66 KM/HR...AND A PEAK GUST TO 47 MPH...
76 KM/HR.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING IN THE WARNING AREA
AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.
STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2 TO
4 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE
NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
RAINFALL...HERMINE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
4 TO 8 INCHES OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO...AND FROM SOUTHERN INTO
NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES
POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS.
TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE TEXAS COAST THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 AM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BRENNAN
WTNT45 KNHC 070235
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM HERMINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102010
1000 PM CDT MON SEP 06 2010
THE CENTER OF HERMINE MADE LANDFALL ON THE COAST OF NORTHEAST MEXICO
AROUND 0130 UTC. PRIOR TO LANDFALL...SATELLITE DATA SHOWED THE
FORMATION OF A CDO-LIKE FEATURE...WITH A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION
ALSO LOCATED NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE LAST AIRCRAFT FIX AT 2333
UTC SHOWED A PEAK 850-MB WIND OF 61 KT...WITH SFMR VALUES UP TO 56
KT. DATA FROM THE BROWNSVILLE WSR-88D RADAR EARLIER INDICATED PEAK
WINDS OF ABOUT 75 KT AT 4000 FT. THESE DATA SUGGEST THE LANDFALL
INTENSITY WAS ABOUT 55 KT. SINCE LANDFALL...THE VELOCITIES FROM THE
BROWNSVILLE RADAR HAVE DECREASED...AND THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS
LOWERED TO 50 KT. AS HERMINE WEAKENS...THE BIGGEST THREAT WILL
SHIFT TO FLASH FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAINS AS THE CYCLONE MOVES INTO
TEXAS.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 330/12. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST
REASONING FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. HERMINE SHOULD MOVE
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF A RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES FOR THE NEXT DAY OR
SO. THEREAFTER...THE REMNANTS OF HERMINE WILL LIKELY TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST AND EAST OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES IN A COUPLE
OF DAYS AS THE CYCLONE RIDES AROUND THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THAT
RIDGE. THE NHC FORECAST IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 07/0300Z 25.5N 97.5W 50 KT...INLAND
12HR VT 07/1200Z 27.1N 98.6W 40 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 08/0000Z 29.5N 99.8W 30 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 08/1200Z 32.1N 100.2W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48HR VT 09/0000Z 34.7N 99.5W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72HR VT 10/0000Z 39.5N 95.0W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96HR VT 11/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BRENNAN
WTNT35 KNHC 070233
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HERMINE ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102010
1000 PM CDT MON SEP 06 2010
...HERMINE MADE LANDFALL AS A STRONG TROPICAL STORM...PRODUCING
HEAVY RAINS OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND SOUTH TEXAS...
SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.5N 97.5W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM S OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM N OF LA PESCA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR
THE COAST OF MEXICO AND THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING SOUTH OF BAHIA
ALGODONES MEXICO.
THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE COAST OF TEXAS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BAHIA ALGODONES MEXICO NORTHWARD TO PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES
...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HERMINE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.5 WEST. HERMINE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...HERMINE WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE INLAND OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO TONIGHT...AND MOVE INTO
SOUTHERN TEXAS ON TUESDAY AND INTO CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY ON
WEDNESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR
...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST AND HERMINE
IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165
KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. A NATIONAL OCEAN SERVICE
OBSERVING SITE IN MALAQUITE BEACH TEXAS RECENTLY REPORTED A
SUSTAINED WIND OF 41 MPH...66 KM/HR...AND A PEAK GUST TO 47 MPH...
76 KM/HR.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING IN THE WARNING AREA
AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.
STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2 TO
4 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE
NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
RAINFALL...HERMINE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
4 TO 8 INCHES OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO...AND FROM SOUTHERN INTO
NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES
POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS.
TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE TEXAS COAST THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 AM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BRENNAN
WTNT45 KNHC 070235
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM HERMINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102010
1000 PM CDT MON SEP 06 2010
THE CENTER OF HERMINE MADE LANDFALL ON THE COAST OF NORTHEAST MEXICO
AROUND 0130 UTC. PRIOR TO LANDFALL...SATELLITE DATA SHOWED THE
FORMATION OF A CDO-LIKE FEATURE...WITH A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION
ALSO LOCATED NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE LAST AIRCRAFT FIX AT 2333
UTC SHOWED A PEAK 850-MB WIND OF 61 KT...WITH SFMR VALUES UP TO 56
KT. DATA FROM THE BROWNSVILLE WSR-88D RADAR EARLIER INDICATED PEAK
WINDS OF ABOUT 75 KT AT 4000 FT. THESE DATA SUGGEST THE LANDFALL
INTENSITY WAS ABOUT 55 KT. SINCE LANDFALL...THE VELOCITIES FROM THE
BROWNSVILLE RADAR HAVE DECREASED...AND THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS
LOWERED TO 50 KT. AS HERMINE WEAKENS...THE BIGGEST THREAT WILL
SHIFT TO FLASH FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAINS AS THE CYCLONE MOVES INTO
TEXAS.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 330/12. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST
REASONING FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. HERMINE SHOULD MOVE
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF A RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES FOR THE NEXT DAY OR
SO. THEREAFTER...THE REMNANTS OF HERMINE WILL LIKELY TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST AND EAST OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES IN A COUPLE
OF DAYS AS THE CYCLONE RIDES AROUND THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THAT
RIDGE. THE NHC FORECAST IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 07/0300Z 25.5N 97.5W 50 KT...INLAND
12HR VT 07/1200Z 27.1N 98.6W 40 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 08/0000Z 29.5N 99.8W 30 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 08/1200Z 32.1N 100.2W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48HR VT 09/0000Z 34.7N 99.5W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72HR VT 10/0000Z 39.5N 95.0W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96HR VT 11/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BRENNAN
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Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
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Brent
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 37094
- Age: 35
- Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
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- Contact:
Re: ATL: HERMINE - Advisories
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HERMINE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102010
100 AM CDT TUE SEP 07 2010
...CENTER OF HERMINE CROSSES THE RIO GRANDE...SUSTAINED TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS...
SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.1N 97.7W
ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM SSW OF HARLINGEN TEXAS
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM NW OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
SOUTH OF RIO SAN FERNANDO MEXICO.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* RIO SAN FERNANDO MEXICO NORTHWARD TO PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HERMINE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.7 WEST. HERMINE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...HERMINE WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE INLAND OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS TODAY AND INTO CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY
ON WEDNESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST...AND HERMINE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY THIS AFTERNOON.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165
KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. SUSTAINED TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS HAVE BEEN REPORTED OVER PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS. VERY RECENTLY...A SUSTAINED WIND OF 54 MPH...87 KM/HR...AND
A PEAK GUST OF 69 MPH...111 KM/HR...WERE REPORTED AT HARLINGEN
TEXAS WITHIN THE PAST HOUR. A SUSTAINED WIND OF 45 MPH...72
KM/HR...AND A PEAK GUST OF 69 MPH...111 KM/HR...WERE ALSO REPORTED
AT THE BROWNSVILLE/SOUTH PADRE ISLAND INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING IN THE WARNING AREA
AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING.
STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2 TO
4 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS.
RAINFALL...HERMINE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
4 TO 8 INCHES OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO...AND FROM SOUTHERN TEXAS
NORTHWARD INTO NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS
OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS.
TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE TEXAS COAST THROUGH THIS MORNING.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER BERG/BROWN
TROPICAL STORM HERMINE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102010
100 AM CDT TUE SEP 07 2010
...CENTER OF HERMINE CROSSES THE RIO GRANDE...SUSTAINED TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS...
SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.1N 97.7W
ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM SSW OF HARLINGEN TEXAS
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM NW OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
SOUTH OF RIO SAN FERNANDO MEXICO.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* RIO SAN FERNANDO MEXICO NORTHWARD TO PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HERMINE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.7 WEST. HERMINE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...HERMINE WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE INLAND OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS TODAY AND INTO CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY
ON WEDNESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST...AND HERMINE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY THIS AFTERNOON.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165
KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. SUSTAINED TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS HAVE BEEN REPORTED OVER PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS. VERY RECENTLY...A SUSTAINED WIND OF 54 MPH...87 KM/HR...AND
A PEAK GUST OF 69 MPH...111 KM/HR...WERE REPORTED AT HARLINGEN
TEXAS WITHIN THE PAST HOUR. A SUSTAINED WIND OF 45 MPH...72
KM/HR...AND A PEAK GUST OF 69 MPH...111 KM/HR...WERE ALSO REPORTED
AT THE BROWNSVILLE/SOUTH PADRE ISLAND INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING IN THE WARNING AREA
AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING.
STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2 TO
4 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS.
RAINFALL...HERMINE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
4 TO 8 INCHES OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO...AND FROM SOUTHERN TEXAS
NORTHWARD INTO NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS
OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS.
TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE TEXAS COAST THROUGH THIS MORNING.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER BERG/BROWN
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#neversummer
-
HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
708
WTNT35 KNHC 071154
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HERMINE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102010
700 AM CDT TUE SEP 07 2010
...HERMINE CONTINUES MOVING INLAND OVER SOUTH TEXAS...SPREADING VERY
HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG WINDS NORTHWARD...
SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.7N 98.2W
ABOUT 35 MI...60 KM SW OF MATHIS TEXAS
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM W OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE NORTHWARD TO PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HERMINE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 98.2 WEST. HERMINE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH AND THEN NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND HERMINE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION LATER TODAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165
KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. A WIND GUST OF 56
MPH...91 KM/HR...WAS REPORTED AT KINGSVILLE TEXAS JUST BEFORE 6 AM
CDT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB...29.38 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN TEXAS NEAR AND ALONG THE PATH OF
HERMINE THROUGH THIS MORNING.
STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1 TO
3 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF SOUTHERN
TEXAS. WATER LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO RECEDE LATER TODAY AS HERMINE
MOVES FARTHER INLAND.
RAINFALL...HERMINE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
12 INCHES POSSIBLE...FROM SOUTHERN TEXAS NORTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN TEXAS...AND OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA. THESE
RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
KANSAS...NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS...AND MISSOURI DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS.
TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS THROUGH TODAY.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/CANGIALOSI
WTNT35 KNHC 071154
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HERMINE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102010
700 AM CDT TUE SEP 07 2010
...HERMINE CONTINUES MOVING INLAND OVER SOUTH TEXAS...SPREADING VERY
HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG WINDS NORTHWARD...
SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.7N 98.2W
ABOUT 35 MI...60 KM SW OF MATHIS TEXAS
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM W OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE NORTHWARD TO PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HERMINE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 98.2 WEST. HERMINE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH AND THEN NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND HERMINE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION LATER TODAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165
KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. A WIND GUST OF 56
MPH...91 KM/HR...WAS REPORTED AT KINGSVILLE TEXAS JUST BEFORE 6 AM
CDT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB...29.38 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN TEXAS NEAR AND ALONG THE PATH OF
HERMINE THROUGH THIS MORNING.
STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1 TO
3 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF SOUTHERN
TEXAS. WATER LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO RECEDE LATER TODAY AS HERMINE
MOVES FARTHER INLAND.
RAINFALL...HERMINE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
12 INCHES POSSIBLE...FROM SOUTHERN TEXAS NORTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN TEXAS...AND OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA. THESE
RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
KANSAS...NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS...AND MISSOURI DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS.
TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS THROUGH TODAY.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/CANGIALOSI
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Advisories
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HERMINE ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102010
1000 AM CDT TUE SEP 07 2010
...HERMINE MOVING FARTHER INLAND OVER SOUTH TEXAS...STILL A TROPICAL
STORM...
SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.3N 98.2W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM NW OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED SOUTH OF BAFFIN
BAY TEXAS.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BAFFIN BAY NORTHWARD TO PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HERMINE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 98.2 WEST. HERMINE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR...AND A GENERAL NORTH
TO NORTH-NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND HERMINE IS LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER
TODAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER...MAINLY TO THE EAST.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTH TEXAS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TODAY.
STORM SURGE...WATER LEVELS ALONG THE TEXAS COAST WILL GRADUALLY
RECEDE...BUT REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
RAINFALL...HERMINE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES...FROM THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST NORTHWARD
THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS...AND OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
THESE RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS...NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS...AND MISSOURI DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS.
TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS TODAY.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 PM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/CANGIALOSI
000
WTNT45 KNHC 071441
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM HERMINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102010
1000 AM CDT TUE SEP 07 2010
HERMINE CONTINUES TO MOVE INLAND OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS BUT IS
MAINTAINING A WELL-DEFINED PRESENTATION ON RADAR IMAGERY. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SHOW WINDS IN THE 30 TO 35 KT RANGE OVER THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION...SO THE SYSTEM IS BEING MAINTAINED
AS A TROPICAL STORM FOR THIS ADVISORY. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED AS HERMINE IS FORECAST TO MOVE FARTHER INLAND...AND ALL
COASTAL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER
TODAY.
SURFACE AND RADAR DATA INDICATE THAT HERMINE HAS BEEN MOVING
SLIGHTLY RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ESTIMATES...350/15. A GENERAL
NORTH-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS BRINGING HERMINE...OR ITS REMNANTS...WELL INLAND
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS TRACK FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY TO THE
EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INITIAL MOTION AND
POSITION.
THE PRIMARY HAZARD ASSOCIATED WITH HERMINE WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL
THAT IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PART OF THE
UNITED STATES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 07/1500Z 28.3N 98.2W 35 KT
12HR VT 08/0000Z 30.1N 99.2W 25 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 08/1200Z 32.3N 99.9W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36HR VT 09/0000Z 34.9N 99.3W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48HR VT 09/1200Z 37.6N 97.7W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72HR VT 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/CANGIALOSI
TROPICAL STORM HERMINE ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102010
1000 AM CDT TUE SEP 07 2010
...HERMINE MOVING FARTHER INLAND OVER SOUTH TEXAS...STILL A TROPICAL
STORM...
SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.3N 98.2W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM NW OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED SOUTH OF BAFFIN
BAY TEXAS.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BAFFIN BAY NORTHWARD TO PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HERMINE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 98.2 WEST. HERMINE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR...AND A GENERAL NORTH
TO NORTH-NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND HERMINE IS LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER
TODAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER...MAINLY TO THE EAST.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTH TEXAS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TODAY.
STORM SURGE...WATER LEVELS ALONG THE TEXAS COAST WILL GRADUALLY
RECEDE...BUT REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
RAINFALL...HERMINE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES...FROM THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST NORTHWARD
THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS...AND OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
THESE RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS...NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS...AND MISSOURI DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS.
TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS TODAY.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 PM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/CANGIALOSI
000
WTNT45 KNHC 071441
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM HERMINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102010
1000 AM CDT TUE SEP 07 2010
HERMINE CONTINUES TO MOVE INLAND OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS BUT IS
MAINTAINING A WELL-DEFINED PRESENTATION ON RADAR IMAGERY. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SHOW WINDS IN THE 30 TO 35 KT RANGE OVER THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION...SO THE SYSTEM IS BEING MAINTAINED
AS A TROPICAL STORM FOR THIS ADVISORY. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED AS HERMINE IS FORECAST TO MOVE FARTHER INLAND...AND ALL
COASTAL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER
TODAY.
SURFACE AND RADAR DATA INDICATE THAT HERMINE HAS BEEN MOVING
SLIGHTLY RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ESTIMATES...350/15. A GENERAL
NORTH-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS BRINGING HERMINE...OR ITS REMNANTS...WELL INLAND
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS TRACK FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY TO THE
EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INITIAL MOTION AND
POSITION.
THE PRIMARY HAZARD ASSOCIATED WITH HERMINE WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL
THAT IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PART OF THE
UNITED STATES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 07/1500Z 28.3N 98.2W 35 KT
12HR VT 08/0000Z 30.1N 99.2W 25 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 08/1200Z 32.3N 99.9W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36HR VT 09/0000Z 34.9N 99.3W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48HR VT 09/1200Z 37.6N 97.7W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72HR VT 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/CANGIALOSI
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139067
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- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Advisories
WTNT35 KNHC 071740
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HERMINE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102010
100 PM CDT TUE SEP 07 2010
...HERMINE ...
SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.3N 98.4W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM SSE OF SAN ANTONIO TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HERMINE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 98.4 WEST. HERMINE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 20 MPH...31 KM/HR...AND A GENERAL NORTH
TO NORTH-NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND HERMINE IS LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER
TODAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER A SMALL
AREA NEAR THE CENTER OF HERMINE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WIND GUSTS
TO 45 MPH...72 KM/HR...WERE REPORTED NEAR SAN ANTONIO AROUND 1200
PM CDT.
STORM SURGE...WATER LEVELS ALONG THE TEXAS COAST ARE GRADUALLY
RECEDING..BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO.
RAINFALL...HERMINE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES...FROM THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST NORTHWARD
THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS...AND OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
THESE RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS...NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS...AND MISSOURI DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS.
TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS TODAY.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/CANGIALOSI
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HERMINE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102010
100 PM CDT TUE SEP 07 2010
...HERMINE ...
SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.3N 98.4W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM SSE OF SAN ANTONIO TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HERMINE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 98.4 WEST. HERMINE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 20 MPH...31 KM/HR...AND A GENERAL NORTH
TO NORTH-NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND HERMINE IS LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER
TODAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER A SMALL
AREA NEAR THE CENTER OF HERMINE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WIND GUSTS
TO 45 MPH...72 KM/HR...WERE REPORTED NEAR SAN ANTONIO AROUND 1200
PM CDT.
STORM SURGE...WATER LEVELS ALONG THE TEXAS COAST ARE GRADUALLY
RECEDING..BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO.
RAINFALL...HERMINE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES...FROM THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST NORTHWARD
THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS...AND OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
THESE RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS...NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS...AND MISSOURI DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS.
TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS TODAY.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/CANGIALOSI
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Advisories
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HERMINE ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102010
400 PM CDT TUE SEP 07 2010
...HERMINE STILL A TROPICAL STORM...PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL OVER
TEXAS...
SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.9N 98.7W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM WSW OF AUSTIN TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HERMINE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 98.7 WEST. HERMINE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR. A TURN TO
THE NORTH AND THEN NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST...AND HERMINE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TONIGHT.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS WERE REPORTED IN THE
SAN ANTONIO AREA DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER A SMALL AREA NEAR
THE CENTER OF HERMINE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
STORM SURGE...WATER LEVELS ALONG THE TEXAS COAST WILL GRADUALLY
RECEDE...BUT REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
RAINFALL...HERMINE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES...FROM THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST NORTHWARD
THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS...AND OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
THESE RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND MISSOURI DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE
HEAVY RAINFALL COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS.
TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS TODAY.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 PM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/PASCH
TROPICAL STORM HERMINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102010
400 PM CDT TUE SEP 07 2010
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND DOPPLER RADAR VELOCITY DATA INDICATE THAT
HERMINE IS STILL PRODUCING A SMALL AREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS NEAR THE CENTER. THEREFORE...HERMINE REMAINS CLASSIFIED AS A
TROPICAL STORM WITH AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KT. DESPITE
BEING WELL INLAND...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS MAINTAINED AN INNER
CORE AND RAINBANDS OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
HERMINE IS EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW IN THE NEXT 12
TO 24 HOURS AND THEN BECOME ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL ZONE WITHIN A FEW
DAYS.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 345/16...AND THE CENTER IS SLIGHTLY
TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. HERMINE IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE NORTHWARD FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO AND THEN TURN
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES. THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST IS AGAIN ADJUSTED
SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
THE PRIMARY HAZARD ASSOCIATED WITH HERMINE WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL
THAT WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PART
OF THE UNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 07/2100Z 29.9N 98.7W 35 KT
12HR VT 08/0600Z 31.5N 99.4W 25 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 08/1800Z 34.0N 99.2W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36HR VT 09/0600Z 36.6N 98.1W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48HR VT 09/1800Z 39.0N 95.5W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72HR VT 10/1800Z...DISSIPATED
TROPICAL STORM HERMINE ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102010
400 PM CDT TUE SEP 07 2010
...HERMINE STILL A TROPICAL STORM...PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL OVER
TEXAS...
SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.9N 98.7W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM WSW OF AUSTIN TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HERMINE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 98.7 WEST. HERMINE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR. A TURN TO
THE NORTH AND THEN NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST...AND HERMINE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TONIGHT.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS WERE REPORTED IN THE
SAN ANTONIO AREA DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER A SMALL AREA NEAR
THE CENTER OF HERMINE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
STORM SURGE...WATER LEVELS ALONG THE TEXAS COAST WILL GRADUALLY
RECEDE...BUT REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
RAINFALL...HERMINE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES...FROM THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST NORTHWARD
THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS...AND OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
THESE RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND MISSOURI DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE
HEAVY RAINFALL COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS.
TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS TODAY.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 PM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/PASCH
TROPICAL STORM HERMINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102010
400 PM CDT TUE SEP 07 2010
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND DOPPLER RADAR VELOCITY DATA INDICATE THAT
HERMINE IS STILL PRODUCING A SMALL AREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS NEAR THE CENTER. THEREFORE...HERMINE REMAINS CLASSIFIED AS A
TROPICAL STORM WITH AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KT. DESPITE
BEING WELL INLAND...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS MAINTAINED AN INNER
CORE AND RAINBANDS OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
HERMINE IS EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW IN THE NEXT 12
TO 24 HOURS AND THEN BECOME ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL ZONE WITHIN A FEW
DAYS.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 345/16...AND THE CENTER IS SLIGHTLY
TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. HERMINE IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE NORTHWARD FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO AND THEN TURN
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES. THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST IS AGAIN ADJUSTED
SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
THE PRIMARY HAZARD ASSOCIATED WITH HERMINE WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL
THAT WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PART
OF THE UNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 07/2100Z 29.9N 98.7W 35 KT
12HR VT 08/0600Z 31.5N 99.4W 25 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 08/1800Z 34.0N 99.2W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36HR VT 09/0600Z 36.6N 98.1W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48HR VT 09/1800Z 39.0N 95.5W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72HR VT 10/1800Z...DISSIPATED
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