ATL: IGOR - Ex Hurricane - Discussion

[Ivanhater]

000
WHXX01 KWBC 071856
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1856 UTC TUE SEP 7 2010

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL912010) 20100907 1800 UTC

[southerngale]

Link to the thread in Talkin' Tropics about this disturbance.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=31&t=109229&st=0&sk=t&sd=a

[cycloneye]

Is weird that the models came out first than Best Track.

[Migle]

It is also some weird model runs with the turn to the NW at the end. But, it was the BAM.

Anyone have a satellite picture of it right now?

[Brent]

Those are some strange models.

[Weatherfreak000]

MIMIC imagery suggests this has quite an impressive circulation. I am liking this area even though it has lost convection, the structure is improving. I think it may re-fire convection again and maybe lose some size. TWs that look like this coming off Africa are nothing but a gamble it seems. I tend to gravitate towards the MIMIC, and i'd suggest everyone look at it regarding 91L as well

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... /main.html

[ColinDelia]

From the TWD
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC
BASIN...ANALYZED ALONG 21W S OF 18N MOVING WEST 10-15 KT.
SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATE BROAD CYCLONIC TURNING AROUND
THE WAVE AXIS CENTERED NEAR 14N. THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A
SURGE OF DEEP LEVEL MOISTURE AS INDICATED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY.

850 mb vorticity

[Cryomaniac]

Some major vorticity there.

[cycloneye]

Will the dry air cause the same problems that Gaston had to this one?

[Vortex]

this could be a very large hurricane noting the large envelope currently...

[Vortex]

It should be interesting to see how the GFDL/HWRF handle "IGORr" on the first run out in about an hour...

[cycloneye]

8 PM TWO:

A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS
PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS. DEVELOPMENT...IF
ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS
A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[bvigal]

This is never going to appear on the navy sites until someone at NCEP updates the /tcweb directory that the automated system uses.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

This is never going to appear on the navy sites until someone at NCEP updates the /tcweb directory that the automated system uses.

This is a serious error that they need to fix. The ATCF system this year has been prone to all sorts of errors. I'm trying to fix my site and it may take days or weeks to code around the NHC error as best that I can. I've had to shut down some areas of my site because of this.

[cycloneye]

No wonder Best Track has been absent from the start as the atcf site is not updating.

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/

[Chris_in_Tampa]

No wonder Best Track has been absent from the start as the atcf site is not updating.

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/

The "btk" directory is okay along with the "aidpublic" directory. For sites that use the "tcweb" directory though, like NRL (who created the system) and CIMSS for example, old storm data exists. Any new storms are not added. It's just causing all sorts of problems. And of course you have to use the "tcweb" directory to some extent to know when an invest gets renumbered into a depression or higher.

[bvigal]

This is never going to appear on the navy sites until someone at NCEP updates the /tcweb directory that the automated system uses.

This is a serious error that they need to fix. The ATCF system this year has been prone to all sorts of errors. I'm trying to fix my site and it may take days or weeks to code around the NHC error as best that I can. I've had to shut down some areas of my site because of this.

Chris, you are right about this year being the worst. I've written letters and sent screen shots and had replies (from public relations people) and had to re-write and explain further, over and over. I don't think anybody who reads emails knows how this really works. Those who really do are insulated and difficult for everyone to communicate with. I'm not even sure it's in Miami, something one guy told me made me believe the big problem is in Maryland.

[Ptarmigan]

These tropical disturbances are like cockroaches. They keep coming at ya. Them cockroach tropical disturbances.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Chris, you are right about this year being the worst. I've written letters and sent screen shots and had replies (from public relations people) and had to re-write and explain further, over and over. I don't think anybody who reads emails knows how this really works. Those who really do are insulated and difficult for everyone to communicate with. I'm not even sure it's in Miami, something one guy told me made me believe the big problem is in Maryland.

I receive this message when logging in with a FTP program about how contact them:

"This server is not considered operational. It is only supported Monday thru Friday between 0700 and 1600 EST. Report any problems to ncep.helpdesk@noaa.gov."

I don't even bother reporting the errors though. With as many sites that use the data I find it hard to believe they don't notice the errors. I have to believe they would double check each time they make updates and that when there is an actual error the time it takes to fix it is getting a tech person to work it out.

I think it is Washington where the servers are. I notice the NHC's seem to be there as well, or at least that is where my trace route ended up.

I know NRL developed the ATCF system so I don't know how it works to actually fix errors. When you design a program it helps fixing the errors when you were the one that designed the program. I'm not sure if the NHC, or a NOAA server rather, runs the software NRL developed and they need to work with NRL on errors or if NRL runs it and takes care of maintenance. So maybe getting a tech person to work out the problems can be a problem.

[Brent]

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1050 PM EDT TUE SEP 7 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS ISSUED THE LAST ADVISORY ON
TROPICAL DEPRESSION HERMINE...LOCATED INLAND OVER CENTRAL TEXAS
ABOUT 30 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BROWNWOOD.

A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE...ACCOMPANIED BY A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...
IS LOCATED NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR THE CENTER OF THE
LOW DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN DISORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE REMNANTS OF GASTON LOCATED ABOUT 60 MILES SOUTH OF PONCE PUERTO
RICO. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW
TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
ABOUT 450 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE NORTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS REMAINS MINIMAL. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS
THE LOW MOVES WESTWARD NEAR 10 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART