ATL: IGOR - Models

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#361 Postby artist » Thu Sep 16, 2010 7:18 pm

I'm really surprised noone is updating the models threads lately really. What's up with that guys? :lol:
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#362 Postby WilmingtonSandbar » Thu Sep 16, 2010 11:07 pm

I thought about this for a few minutes and came to the conclusion that the models have been tightly packed and show very little change over the past day or two. There just isn't anything new to talk about. Now if a few model runs were to show a huge push west, I am sure you will see this page light up.
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Re: ATL: IGOR - Models

#363 Postby artist » Fri Sep 17, 2010 2:49 pm

Sep 17 15:34:24 EDT 2010
WHXX01 KWBC 171931

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1931 UTC FRI SEP 17 2010

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE IGOR (AL112010) 20100917 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100917 1800 100918 0600 100918 1800 100919 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 23.4N 60.7W 24.3N 62.4W 25.7N 63.5W 26.9N 64.3W
BAMD 23.4N 60.7W 24.4N 62.3W 26.0N 63.8W 27.6N 65.2W
BAMM 23.4N 60.7W 24.2N 62.4W 25.6N 63.8W 26.7N 64.7W
LBAR 23.4N 60.7W 24.7N 62.1W 26.1N 63.6W 27.4N 65.0W
SHIP 95KTS 98KTS 102KTS 101KTS
DSHP 95KTS 98KTS 102KTS 101KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100919 1800 100920 1800 100921 1800 100922 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 28.3N 64.8W 30.8N 63.0W 33.0N 52.0W 32.7N 43.2W
BAMD 29.1N 66.5W 33.0N 66.1W 39.3N 50.7W 48.3N 34.8W
BAMM 27.9N 65.6W 30.9N 64.9W 34.9N 51.3W 39.1N 33.5W
LBAR 28.8N 65.9W 32.5N 65.9W 36.8N 59.1W 39.3N 43.1W
SHIP 100KTS 87KTS 77KTS 46KTS
DSHP 100KTS 87KTS 77KTS 46KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 23.4N LONCUR = 60.7W DIRCUR = 305DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 22.2N LONM12 = 59.1W DIRM12 = 306DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 21.4N LONM24 = 57.8W
WNDCUR = 95KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 110KT
CENPRS = 947MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 400NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 300NM RD34SE = 210NM RD34SW = 200NM RD34NW = 240NM

WHXX01 KWBC 170612

CHGHUR
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#364 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Sep 17, 2010 3:57 pm

The BAMM seems to make this a repeat of Hurricane Carrie (1957) which so far seems to have been a good analog...that one remained a hurricane for days as it turned eastward into the Azores.
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#365 Postby WilmingtonSandbar » Fri Sep 17, 2010 5:30 pm

Any input on at least one model from both Igor and Julia having both storms do a complete re curve and make a circle in the Atlantic? With Igor dropping to a cat 2, it would seem that Igor and Julia are not that far off in power. So could these models be playing with some type of Fujiwara effect?
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Re: ATL: IGOR - Models

#366 Postby TheDreamTraveler » Fri Sep 17, 2010 6:22 pm

WilmingtonSandbar wrote:Any input on at least one model from both Igor and Julia having both storms do a complete re curve and make a circle in the Atlantic? With Igor dropping to a cat 2, it would seem that Igor and Julia are not that far off in power. So could these models be playing with some type of Fujiwara effect?


The Bam models seem to be the only models that are whacked out on both Julia and Igor. I still think its weird how much agreement the models are in concerning both storms. It's also weird how the Bam shows both of them straying off from the models completely. Exactly the type of thing that can happen when you have two hurricanes interacting with eachother.

It's silly to say that these two hurricanes won't have any effect on eachother. I believe it was Brian Norcross on the Weather Channel that said the interaction between them could offset Igor's models. Jeff Masters on wunderground.com even hinted at this a while ago. We'll just have to wait and see.
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#367 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Sep 17, 2010 9:06 pm

I'm thinking that Julia opens up a path eastward and the Azores will have to watch out in the end...
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Re: ATL: IGOR - Models

#368 Postby cpdaman » Sat Sep 18, 2010 7:52 am

6z gfs takes igor about 30 miles west of 0z.....a little more west per 12z and bermuda could escaped the worst to the west...hopefully

6z nam shifted about 50-75 miles west depending on where you look in latitude..(pretty much same as the 18z yesterday)..and brings igor in a bad path just over or to the left of bermuda
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#369 Postby supercane » Sat Sep 18, 2010 2:00 pm

18Z tropical models:

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 181843

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1843 UTC SAT SEP 18 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
TROPICAL CYCLONE IGOR (AL112010) 20100918 1800 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100918  1800   100919  0600   100919  1800   100920  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    26.7N  64.0W   27.6N  64.9W   28.6N  65.4W   29.7N  64.8W
BAMD    26.7N  64.0W   28.4N  65.1W   30.2N  66.3W   32.3N  66.7W
BAMM    26.7N  64.0W   27.7N  64.9W   28.8N  65.7W   30.2N  65.6W
LBAR    26.7N  64.0W   28.4N  65.1W   30.5N  65.9W   32.8N  66.0W
SHIP        85KTS          84KTS          87KTS          86KTS
DSHP        85KTS          84KTS          87KTS          86KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100920  1800   100921  1800   100922  1800   100923  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    31.2N  62.6W   33.7N  52.7W   32.0N  43.5W   29.3N  42.9W
BAMD    35.1N  65.3W   40.9N  53.1W   44.8N  40.3W   49.0N  34.3W
BAMM    32.3N  63.9W   36.4N  52.8W   36.1N  39.0W   33.0N  30.6W
LBAR    35.4N  64.7W   41.2N  54.0W   47.3N  42.8W     .0N    .0W
SHIP        83KTS          71KTS          43KTS          19KTS
DSHP        83KTS          71KTS          43KTS          19KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  26.7N LONCUR =  64.0W DIRCUR = 320DEG SPDCUR =  12KT
LATM12 =  24.8N LONM12 =  62.5W DIRM12 = 311DEG SPDM12 =  10KT
LATM24 =  23.4N LONM24 =  60.7W
WNDCUR =   85KT RMAXWD =   45NM WNDM12 =   95KT
CENPRS =  945MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD =  410NM SDEPTH =   D
RD34NE =  300NM RD34SE =  225NM RD34SW =  200NM RD34NW = 240N


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