ATL: IGOR - Models

[BigA]

Thanks, not sure I buy it, but this + CMC is indicative that the turn north is not automatic.

Julia off to the east of Igor.....interaction induces a westward trek.....would be interesting...that has got to be what its seeing because that weakness if pretty pronounced.

I don't understand how a possible Fujiwara effect would push Igor westward. Wouldn't it cause the two storms to rotate about a common point between the two, which would cause Julia to move more west than it ordinarily would, and would cause Igor to move more east than it ordinarily would?

[dexterlabio]

Thanks, not sure I buy it, but this + CMC is indicative that the turn north is not automatic.

Julia off to the east of Igor.....interaction induces a westward trek.....would be interesting...that has got to be what its seeing because that weakness if pretty pronounced.

I don't understand how a possible Fujiwara effect would push Igor westward. Wouldn't it cause the two storms to rotate about a common point between the two, which would cause Julia to move more west than it ordinarily would, and would cause Igor to move more east than it ordinarily would?

Yeah that's what I think, I thought Fujiwara effect would cause a counterclockwise rotation about a common point.

[Angferba]

The Japanese model is available for free, out to T+192, on one of our French weather sites. Use the NH view if the link does not go there automatically.

http://www.meteociel.com/modeles/jma.ph ... &archive=0

[KWT]

Most models do recurve out though the CMC doesn't quite get the job...though most models do suggest this maybe a real threat to Bermuda down the line...

Keep an eye on it for that!

[cycloneye]

12z Tropical Models Suite

Code: Select all

849
WHXX01 KWBC 131237
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1237 UTC MON SEP 13 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
TROPICAL CYCLONE IGOR (AL112010) 20100913 1200 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100913  1200   100914  0000   100914  1200   100915  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    17.6N  49.2W   17.8N  51.2W   18.0N  52.4W   19.1N  52.7W
BAMD    17.6N  49.2W   18.3N  50.6W   19.2N  52.0W   20.3N  53.4W
BAMM    17.6N  49.2W   18.1N  50.8W   18.8N  51.9W   19.9N  53.0W
LBAR    17.6N  49.2W   18.0N  50.7W   18.6N  52.4W   19.3N  54.2W
SHIP       130KTS         128KTS         130KTS         130KTS
DSHP       130KTS         128KTS         130KTS         130KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100915  1200   100916  1200   100917  1200   100918  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    20.9N  53.6W   24.7N  57.0W   26.2N  60.8W   29.1N  59.5W
BAMD    21.5N  55.0W   24.1N  57.6W   27.7N  60.1W   32.6N  61.5W
BAMM    21.2N  54.2W   24.3N  56.8W   27.6N  59.9W   31.3N  60.8W
LBAR    19.9N  56.1W   21.5N  59.9W   24.1N  63.8W   27.3N  66.0W
SHIP       127KTS         116KTS         108KTS          93KTS
DSHP       127KTS         116KTS         108KTS          93KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  17.6N LONCUR =  49.2W DIRCUR = 265DEG SPDCUR =   9KT
LATM12 =  17.7N LONM12 =  47.3W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 =  11KT
LATM24 =  17.7N LONM24 =  44.9W
WNDCUR =  130KT RMAXWD =   20NM WNDM12 =  130KT
CENPRS =  933MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD =  300NM SDEPTH =   D
RD34NE =  150NM RD34SE =  140NM RD34SW =  100NM RD34NW = 130NM
 


[KWT]

Very interesting, looks like the system is following the UKMO model which takes it ever so slightly WSW in the first 12hrs...any westward motion probably gives a higher threat to at least Bermuda.

[deltadog03]

I think the models are on crack...jmo I DONT think this goes E of bermuda. Its either over or to the west of Bermuda.

[Aquawind]

Agreed..I would be very concerned if in Bermuda with a slab cleaner like Igor so close..

[jhpigott]

when does the new CMC come out? Be interested to see if it holds onto a similar projected path as last run

[x-y-no]

12z GFS seems to be a bust ... it's taking Igor distinctly north of west in even the first six hours, that doesn't look likely at this point.

By 96-120 hours, it's moving him NNW, about to pass well east of Bermuda.

[KWT]

Yeah though wouldn't take much in the way of westerly motion for Igor's western side to hit Bermuda on the 12z GFS...

Looks to me like its a bit agressive on the northerly turn as well, which would really put Bermuda at risk for sure...

[deltadog03]

Your right guys!! The 12z GFS will bust again in the short term. Its a proven fact that the GFS is down right horrible with ridges/trofs. Whats interesting is that the ridge to the NW of Igor is holding pretty tough right now.

[brunota2003]

The models are showing their right of track bias way out in the middle of the ocean, just like with Earl. Sure, the break will probably come, but where at exactly? In such a data sparse area, it is hard to say.

[cycloneye]

18z Tropical Models Suite

Code: Select all

982
WHXX01 KWBC 131832
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1832 UTC MON SEP 13 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
TROPICAL CYCLONE IGOR (AL112010) 20100913 1800 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100913  1800   100914  0600   100914  1800   100915  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    17.6N  50.1W   17.7N  51.9W   18.5N  52.5W   20.1N  52.9W
BAMD    17.6N  50.1W   18.3N  51.6W   19.3N  53.2W   20.3N  54.8W
BAMM    17.6N  50.1W   18.2N  51.6W   19.1N  52.9W   20.3N  53.9W
LBAR    17.6N  50.1W   17.9N  51.7W   18.5N  53.3W   19.1N  55.2W
SHIP       130KTS         130KTS         133KTS         131KTS
DSHP       130KTS         130KTS         133KTS         131KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100915  1800   100916  1800   100917  1800   100918  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    22.4N  54.4W   25.0N  58.7W   25.8N  61.4W   29.7N  60.1W
BAMD    21.4N  56.3W   23.6N  58.6W   26.2N  61.2W   30.0N  63.0W
BAMM    21.9N  55.2W   24.6N  57.9W   27.0N  60.9W   30.7N  61.9W
LBAR    19.8N  57.0W   21.1N  60.8W   23.3N  64.3W   26.0N  66.5W
SHIP       128KTS         114KTS         107KTS          92KTS
DSHP       128KTS         114KTS         107KTS          92KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  17.6N LONCUR =  50.1W DIRCUR = 265DEG SPDCUR =   9KT
LATM12 =  17.7N LONM12 =  48.4W DIRM12 = 267DEG SPDM12 =   9KT
LATM24 =  17.7N LONM24 =  46.1W
WNDCUR =  130KT RMAXWD =   15NM WNDM12 =  130KT
CENPRS =  933MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD =  300NM SDEPTH =   D
RD34NE =  150NM RD34SE =  140NM RD34SW =  100NM RD34NW = 130NM
 


[SunnyThoughts]

wow 909?

[CrazyC83]

909 over Bermuda too - that would be total devastation.

[BigA]

18z seems to have corrected some of the eastern excesses of the 12Z. GFS is unfortunately right over Bermuda, perhaps a bit to the east.

[KWT]

Yeah I think the 18z GFS looks more realistic with how it portrays Igor to be honest...clearly heading west of the 12z GFS...

[cycloneye]

UKMET has been the #1 model that has so far nailed the more west motion.

[ROCK]

UKMET has been the #1 model that has so far nailed the more west motion.

you dont see that happen very often....UKMET is right down there with the NOGAPS and NAM for the tropics, IMO....got to give it credit though...