ATL: IGOR - Models

[Ivanhater]

000
WHXX01 KWBC 071856
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1856 UTC TUE SEP 7 2010

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL912010) 20100907 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100907 1800 100908 0600 100908 1800 100909 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.1N 20.5W 14.5N 22.7W 14.5N 25.4W 14.2N 28.5W
BAMD 14.1N 20.5W 14.7N 23.0W 15.4N 25.7W 15.9N 28.6W
BAMM 14.1N 20.5W 14.6N 22.5W 15.0N 25.1W 15.2N 28.0W
LBAR 14.1N 20.5W 14.8N 22.2W 15.7N 24.5W 16.6N 27.4W
SHIP 25KTS 27KTS 30KTS 35KTS
DSHP 25KTS 27KTS 30KTS 35KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100909 1800 100910 1800 100911 1800 100912 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.7N 31.9W 12.5N 38.6W 11.0N 42.1W 11.7N 41.2W
BAMD 16.4N 31.7W 17.1N 37.9W 16.5N 44.0W 15.0N 49.3W
BAMM 15.4N 31.2W 15.5N 37.8W 14.2N 43.7W 12.8N 46.9W
LBAR 17.9N 30.7W 20.2N 37.4W 21.0N 42.8W 16.0N 43.7W
SHIP 40KTS 58KTS 70KTS 78KTS
DSHP 40KTS 58KTS 70KTS 78KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.1N LONCUR = 20.5W DIRCUR = 310DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 13.2N LONM12 = 19.5W DIRM12 = 308DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 11.9N LONM24 = 17.9W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[otowntiger]

So is this one likely to re-curve? I'm unable to dicipher all the info above but I did see where some other posters were mentioning a weakness at 60w.

[cycloneye]

The BAMS do the contrary.

[SouthFLTropics]

[quote="cycloneye"]The BAMS do the contrary.

[img]http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_91.gif

What exactly is the opposite of "recurve"???

SFT

[ROCK]

The BAMS do the contrary.

[img]http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_91.gif

What exactly is the opposite of "recurve"???

SFT

uncurve? looks like a player as model support is all over this one....

[BigA]

My guess is the opposite of recurve is "be pushed south by the subtropical high" but in any case that's what it looks like is happening, according to the BAMs, though I have no idea what is going on in the last few data points.

[barometerJane61]

The early models look like a bouncing ball track

[bvigal]

How can the motion be 310degrees?

[BigA]

How can the motion be 310degrees?

Probably just imperfect initialization due to it not having a well-defined center yet.

[KWT]

GFS has been very keen on taking this north of west till about 50W then lifting this into a recurve somewhere between 50-60W.

There is a pretty sizeable upper trough progged as well to be fair but still a little far out to have huge faith in the models.

[Vortex]

18Z GFS a little further west than prior runs...Get's pretty close to the 20/60 mark. This time of year with the changing seasons can make a mid range forecast much more difficult with the more progressive nature of stronger troughs/highs...It certainly appears it may make a run at the northern islands again....

[blazess556]

18Z GFS a little further west than prior runs...Get's pretty close to the 20/60 mark. This time of year with the changing seasons can make a mid range forecast much more difficult with the more progressive nature of stronger troughs/highs...It certainly appears it may make a run at the northern islands again....

yeah, the gfs really strengthens the azores high on this run. its goes straight northwest towards bermuda.

[Ivanhater]

GFS hits the U.S this run..Maine

Much further west

[Vortex]

wow your right ivan...trending west....

[Ivanhater]

HWRF 112 KNOTS

[lonelymike]

18zGFS always seems to want to destroy something. I wonder if anyones ever done an analysis to see which model runs 00 6z 12z 18 etc are the most accurate. I've always heard the 00's. Anyone know?

[Ivanhater]

GFDL 117 KNOTS

[img][/img]

[hurricaneCW]

I'm 99.99% it recurves east of Bermuda. The latest gfs run is most likely a big fluke, there's no way a storm is still heading NW while its near 30N all the way to Maine in mid September. The other models show a quick recurve as well. At least it will be a big ACE producer and it's fairly likely we'll have Igor since most of the models strongly develop it, unlike Ex-Gaston.

[Wthrman13]

18zGFS always seems to want to destroy something. I wonder if anyones ever done an analysis to see which model runs 00 6z 12z 18 etc are the most accurate. I've always heard the 00's. Anyone know?

In general, the "synoptic" runs, initialized at 00 and 12 UTC, are more accurate than their 06Z and 18Z counterparts because they contain more upper-air sounding observations in the initial conditions. By convention, these are launched twice a day all over the world near 00 and 12 UTC. Contrary to popular belief, though, the 6Z and 18Z runs still contain plenty of data, including upper air data (satellite derived observations, aircraft obs, etc.), just not the usual upper air balloon soundings.

IIRC, there are studies that show that the the 0Z and 12Z runs are overall the best, but I don't know any off the top of my head; I could go look them up.

[cycloneye]

00z Tropical Models

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 080059
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0059 UTC WED SEP 8 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL912010) 20100908 0000 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100908  0000   100908  1200   100909  0000   100909  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    14.2N  21.3W   14.4N  23.3W   14.1N  25.9W   13.6N  28.7W
BAMD    14.2N  21.3W   14.7N  23.9W   15.1N  26.7W   15.5N  29.7W
BAMM    14.2N  21.3W   14.6N  23.4W   14.8N  26.0W   15.0N  28.9W
LBAR    14.2N  21.3W   14.8N  23.1W   15.5N  25.6W   16.5N  28.5W
SHIP        25KTS          28KTS          32KTS          38KTS
DSHP        25KTS          28KTS          32KTS          38KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100910  0000   100911  0000   100912  0000   100913  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    13.2N  31.5W   13.5N  35.6W   15.5N  38.0W   19.1N  41.9W
BAMD    15.8N  32.8W   16.1N  39.1W   15.9N  45.1W   15.2N  49.6W
BAMM    15.3N  31.9W   15.5N  38.0W   15.5N  43.2W   15.8N  46.7W
LBAR    17.7N  31.8W   19.6N  38.7W   16.3N  41.9W   17.1N  46.8W
SHIP        46KTS          61KTS          71KTS          80KTS
DSHP        46KTS          61KTS          71KTS          80KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  14.2N LONCUR =  21.3W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR =   7KT
LATM12 =  13.7N LONM12 =  20.1W DIRM12 = 313DEG SPDM12 =   7KT
LATM24 =  12.8N LONM24 =  18.9W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   60NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD =  150NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM