ATL: IGOR - Models

[Stephanie]

If some of these models verify then Bermuda could be absolutely devastated.

If anywhere in the world can handle direct hit from a Category 4 storm, it is Bermuda.

??? Please explain.

[BigA]

If some of these models verify then Bermuda could be absolutely devastated.

If anywhere in the world can handle direct hit from a Category 4 storm, it is Bermuda.

??? Please explain.

Bermuda has a reputation for being very well-built with sturdy structures. That said, I think that Taiwan might be best able to handle a storm of that Magnitude. They seem to get hit by major typhoons every year or two, but bounce back relatively well.

(I originally said "bounce back without issue" but this is extremely insensitive to people in Taiwan who have been killed or had their livelihoods ruined by typhoons)

[shah8]

Morakot just killed them last year.

That being said. Nothing really survives a true high end cat4 cat5 strikes. Nuke bunkers. maybe.

[CrazyC83]

SHIPS now brings it up to Cat 5...

[Stephanie]

Morakot just killed them last year.

That being said. Nothing really survives a true high end cat4 cat5 strikes. Nuke bunkers. maybe.

There certainly will be devastation, regardless of the building codes. The stricter building codes I'm sure will help, but there will be devastation.

[plasticup]

If some of these models verify then Bermuda could be absolutely devastated.

If anywhere in the world can handle direct hit from a Category 4 storm, it is Bermuda.

??? Please explain.

There is a solid reef and a good elevation to prevent too much damage from waves and surge. Per capita, it is the wealthiest country in the world, so the infrastructure is in great shape. There are no mobile homes. The houses are all made of stone, which obviously hold up better than the wooden-frame houses you see elsewhere. The roofs are made of solid limestone, not roofing tiles, so you don't get billions of projectiles. The people remember recent storms like Fabian, Felix, and Emily, so they take the big ones seriously; they are experienced and know how the hurricane-proof their homes.

In terms of post-storm recovery, the island has three large ship-landings. The airport is one of the largest in the world. There is compulsory military service, which ensures a large group of me can be called upon to clear the roads. Generators are common, so critical electricity needs (such as refrigeration of insulin) can be met by someone nearby. The water supply is completely decentralized with each house collecting its own rainwater into an underground tank, so that's one fewer utility to worry about.

Cat 4/5 would be a big deal, but better Bermuda than somewhere less hardy.

[Stephanie]

Cat 4/5 would be a big deal, but better Bermuda than somewhere less hardy.

Good stats and I'm glad that you ended with this above.

[gatorcane]

Models are in close agreement on a curve away from the united states. There is a threat to Bermuda but just about no chance of a united states threat here no matter how strong igor gets. The trough extends well up into the atmosphere.

[Florida1118]

At the end of the models some are still headed NW not NE...

[hurricaneCW]

Obviously if you're a tourist type island that is very vulnerable to hurricanes, you'll get the best protection you could possibly get. If you're not very vulnerable to hurricanes or very rarely see them, like New England, the building codes and preparations are far more lenient. In other words a Cat 3 to Bermuda and a Cat 3 to New England would be as different as black and white.

[terrapintransit]

[shah8]

Okay...

Someone needs to have a good look at what the Caymans looked like after Ivan just *brushed* them. Those guys don't have any less strong building codes.

[LarryWx]

Fwiw, the 12Z Sun JMA per Accuwx, has Igor at:

~25.3N, 72.8W day 7
~27.5N, 75.0W day 8

With no strong trough at 500 mb at that time nearby and upper ridging over the E US per this JMA model run, this would imho imply a U.S. east coast hit later on this run most likely...probably around day 10-11 (9/22-3) based on ths run.

[baitism]

Okay...

Someone needs to have a good look at what the Caymans looked like after Ivan just *brushed* them. Those guys don't have any less strong building codes.

Huge elevation difference....

[BigA]

Fwiw, the 12Z Sun JMA per Accuwx, has Igor at:

~25.3N, 72.8W day 7
~27.5N, 75.0W day 8

With no strong trough at 500 mb at that time nearby and upper ridging over the E US per this JMA model run, this would imho imply a U.S. east coast hit later on this run most likely...probably around day 10-11 (9/22-3) based on ths run.

I'm not familiar with this model. Is it only on Accuweather's pro site?

[LarryWx]

Fwiw, the 12Z Sun JMA per Accuwx, has Igor at:

~25.3N, 72.8W day 7
~27.5N, 75.0W day 8

With no strong trough at 500 mb at that time nearby and upper ridging over the E US per this JMA model run, this would imho imply a U.S. east coast hit later on this run most likely...probably around day 10-11 (9/22-3) based on ths run.

I'm not familiar with this model. Is it only on Accuweather's pro site?

Days 7-8 are available from only Accuwx as far as I know.

[SFLcane]

Fwiw, the 12Z Sun JMA per Accuwx, has Igor at:

~25.3N, 72.8W day 7
~27.5N, 75.0W day 8

With no strong trough at 500 mb at that time nearby and upper ridging over the E US per this JMA model run, this would imho imply a U.S. east coast hit later on this run most likely...probably around day 10-11 (9/22-3) based on ths run.

Here it is @ 168hrs... Not buying into that though.

[BigA]

Thanks, not sure I buy it, but this + CMC is indicative that the turn north is not automatic.

[Ivanhater]

Models are in close agreement on a curve away from the united states. There is a threat to Bermuda but just about no chance of a united states threat here no matter how strong igor gets. The trough extends well up into the atmosphere.

Could you elaborate what you mean my close agreement on recurve among the models and almost a 0 percent of hitting the U.S? Odds are for a recurve but I would advise taking a closer look at the models because your analysis would be incorrect.

[ROCK]

Thanks, not sure I buy it, but this + CMC is indicative that the turn north is not automatic.

Julia off to the east of Igor.....interaction induces a westward trek.....would be interesting...that has got to be what its seeing because that weakness if pretty pronounced.