ATL: IGOR - Models

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ROCK
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Re: ATL: IGOR - Models

#341 Postby ROCK » Mon Sep 13, 2010 10:51 pm

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_030l.gif

that sure is not a big window between those 2 ridges..... :D
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#342 Postby BigA » Mon Sep 13, 2010 11:24 pm

00Z GFS: Direct strike on Bermuda.
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#343 Postby ROCK » Mon Sep 13, 2010 11:26 pm

BigA wrote:00Z GFS: Direct strike on Bermuda.


yep and he is gone after that.....
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Re:

#344 Postby hurricaneCW » Mon Sep 13, 2010 11:27 pm

BigA wrote:00Z GFS: Direct strike on Bermuda.


Just an awful hit, and the worst part is that it's moving rather slowly over the island, Bermuda would be lashed from 12-18 hours by hurricane force winds. Thank god for those building codes.
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#345 Postby KWT » Tue Sep 14, 2010 6:18 am

00z GFDL to the east of Bermuda but more then close enough for hurricane warnings, thankfully a much weaker system, barely a 2 according to the GFDL!
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Re: ATL: IGOR - Models

#346 Postby floridasun78 » Tue Sep 14, 2010 9:39 am

it look on this gfs run that high close down to north of igor by thur http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... SLoop.html
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#347 Postby blazess556 » Tue Sep 14, 2010 1:30 pm

12z EURO is ridiculously far sw of its 00z by over 400 miles.
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Re: ATL: IGOR - Models

#348 Postby cpdaman » Tue Sep 14, 2010 1:33 pm

12z Euro pushes igor well SW of bermuda

builds in a north atlantic high that noses way SW out ahead of igor....on thrus nite....thru sat ....it merges this high with the southern states high at 500mb....

it's only out to 120 hrs...but a new weakness forms in the ridge at this time and looks like a N component would resume from a starting point around 32/68 or so
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Re: ATL: IGOR - Models

#349 Postby cpdaman » Tue Sep 14, 2010 1:37 pm

hr 144 euro says NC pay attention.....

position approx 34.5/ 69.5 w smack between bermuda and outer banks
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Re: ATL: IGOR - Models

#350 Postby cpdaman » Tue Sep 14, 2010 1:42 pm

hr 168 shows igor out to sea ENE .....

with closest pass around 34.5 /69.5 day 6 hr 144 BIG SHIFT WEST
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#351 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Sep 14, 2010 8:27 pm

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That wouldn't be good for Bermuda
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Re:

#352 Postby plasticup » Tue Sep 14, 2010 8:38 pm

HURAKAN wrote:http://freeuploadimages.org/images/dhjr5cawaktyvcv5aeu9.jpg

That wouldn't be good for Bermuda

No... no it wouldn't.

But has anyone got an interpretation of why the 12z Euro has shifted so far? It looks to me as if the model pushes the second trough through so quickly that Igor can't make the turn, then the building ridge forces him west until a third trough opens the door.
Yes? No? Maybe so?
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Re: ATL: IGOR - Models

#353 Postby cpdaman » Tue Sep 14, 2010 8:38 pm

hurakan verbatim (that graphic) they would see....probably similiar to what we got in wilma

plastic models have sped up the short wave moving thru new england on thursday pm and scooting out thurs late nite.....also they shifted it to the north..

so that may allow the ridge to build back in over the central-west atlantic i.e north and then NW of igor for a time early fri...thru late sat....at least
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#354 Postby WilmingtonSandbar » Wed Sep 15, 2010 9:02 am

Does anyone foresee the rapid intensification of Julia affecting Igor's model? If so, which direction do you predict?
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Re:

#355 Postby artist » Wed Sep 15, 2010 10:31 am

WilmingtonSandbar wrote:Does anyone foresee the rapid intensification of Julia affecting Igor's model? If so, which direction do you predict?


I have wondered this as well. It seems all talk about their interacting has gotten quiet so I am assuming that means there will be none? Help us amateurs here guys! lol
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#356 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Sep 15, 2010 10:43 am

My thinking is not really, but the size of Igor played a role in Julia's rapid deepening. I think Igor is just sucking all the dry air out of the tropical Atlantic pretty much and gave Julia an environment to rapidly deepen.

As for the track, I don't see it making much different since Julia is far away and much smaller.
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#357 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Sep 15, 2010 11:24 am

Image

HWRF
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#358 Postby BigB0882 » Wed Sep 15, 2010 11:31 am

That's gonna hurt!
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Re:

#359 Postby warmer » Wed Sep 15, 2010 3:59 pm

WilmingtonSandbar wrote:Does anyone foresee the rapid intensification of Julia affecting Igor's model? If so, which direction do you predict?


I don't know anything about this, but I did some research, here is my finding:

Fujiwhara effect

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fujiwhara_effect

The effect is often mentioned in relation to the motion of tropical cyclones, although the final merging of the two storms is uncommon. The effect becomes pronounced in these storms when they approach within about 1,450 km (900 mi) of each other and are at tropical storm strength or stronger.

Current distance Igor, Julia using:
http://jan.ucc.nau.edu/~cvm/latlongdist.html

Distance between 19.8N 55.0W and 18.2N 32.7W is
1461.5784 statute miles

Distance between 20.1N 55.6W and 19.2N 33.5W is
1439.9202 statute miles
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#360 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Sep 16, 2010 1:42 pm

Image

Ouch!
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