CPAC: INVEST 95C

[Chacor]

CP, 95, 2010090800, , BEST, 0, 135N, 1434W, 20, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 70, 0, 0, C, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,

[Chacor]

1. AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS PERSISTS NEAR
A TROUGH LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
HILO.
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO
OCCUR WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT MEANDERS SLOWLY TO THE WEST
SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[cycloneye]

From which site you got the best track as the atcf one is not updating?

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/

[Chacor]

That's the tcweb folder which NRL gets its stuff from, hence this isn't on NRL yet either. The best-track folder is, unsurprisingly, called /btk.

[cycloneye]

Thank you Chacor.

[supercane]

[Chacor]

ACPN50 PHFO 081148
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 AM HST WED SEP 8 2010

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. A WEAK AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS ASSOCIATED
WITH A TROUGH LOCATED ABOUT 800 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII.
THE SYSTEM HAS MOVED TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR WITH
THE TROUGH AS IT HEADS SLOWLY TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS FEATURE
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

2. A TROUGH IS ABOUT 550 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HILO...AND HAS
MOVED SLOWLY WEST OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. A SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM.
THE FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE WEST AT ABOUT 10 MPH OVER
THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT.

$$

KINEL

[Chacor]

Yes, that's an invest.

[Chacor]

A SMALL LOW CLOUD SWIRL LOCATED ABOUT 825 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
HILO...HAWAII...IS MOVING SOUTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS DISTURBANCE...
BUT THE SYSTEM LACKS SIGNIFICANT ORGANIZATION. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS FEATURE BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[StormingB81]

So here is my question if it becomes Tropical Cyclone....Can this be compete with Marco (12 miles) or tracy(30 miles) as one of the smallest Cyclones recorded?

[supercane]

Nothing doing so far, but not sure that current tech good enough to find such a small system far from land even if it did occur.

[Chacor]

So here is my question if it becomes Tropical Cyclone....Can this be compete with Marco (12 miles) or tracy(30 miles) as one of the smallest Cyclones recorded?

Those distances have to do with wind radii. We'd have to see whether this becomes a TS and whether it grows in size first.

[Chacor]

On another note, the 00Z SHIPS run appears to like 95C.

Code: Select all

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    20    20    20    22    25    31    37    43    50    55    57    56    56
V (KT) LAND       20    20    20    22    25    31    37    43    50    55    57    56    56
V (KT) LGE mod    20    20    20    20    21    23    27    32    39    46    54    60    65


LGEM makes 95C a hurricane in five days.

The models also want to keep this at a very low latitude and far from land:

Code: Select all

LAND (KM)       1303  1236  1181  1121  1082  1069  1108  1198  1304  1420  1559  1734  1890
LAT (DEG N)     11.3  10.9  10.4  10.1   9.8   9.3   9.1   8.8   8.6   8.4   8.2   8.1   8.1
LONG(DEG W)    146.1 147.6 149.0 150.5 152.0 154.9 157.5 159.5 161.4 163.1 165.0 167.3 170.0


[dwsqos2]

Since I'm really bored, here's a completely index based guess. The PDO is quite negative, and the atmosphere is screaming Nina right now. Negative PDO plus negative ENSO tends to produce not much in the way of CPAC activity. I think it won't develop.



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Kingarabian]

The CPAC is doing pretty will this season with 6 invests.

[Chacor]

6 invests is nothing when there have been no tropical cyclones by September 9 for the first time since 1979...

[Kingarabian]

6 invests is nothing when there have been no tropical cyclones by September 9 for the first time since 1979...

Wow. I eat my words.

[Chacor]

ACPN50 PHFO 091154
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 AM HST THU SEP 9 2010

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED ABOUT 750 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
HILO...HAWAII. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR MORE FAVORABLE FOR
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT WITH THIS STILL DISORGANIZED SYSTEM AS IT MOVES
WEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS FEATURE BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT.


$$

BRENCHLEY

Up to 30% now. For some reason 06Z SHIPS wasn't run on 95C.

[Chacor]

Down to 20%.

ACPN50 PHFO 092347
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 PM HST THU SEP 9 2010

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED ABOUT 700 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST
OF HILO...HAWAII. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR WITH
THIS DISORGANIZED SYSTEM AS IT MOVES WEST NEAR 15 MPH. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS FEATURE BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.


$$

MORRISON

[Chacor]

Not looking that bad...