CPAC: INVEST 95C

[Kingarabian]

Yeah it appears very small tho. I think they may raise it to 30%.

[Chacor]

You're right.

ACPN50 PHFO 100547
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 PM HST THU SEP 9 2010

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED ABOUT 650 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST
OF HILO...HAWAII. ENVIRONMENT CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES WEST NORTHWEST NEAR
15 MPH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT...OF THIS FEATURE BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING.


$$

BRENCHLEY

[Chacor]

Chances continue to improve...

ACPN50 PHFO 101155
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 AM HST FRI SEP 10 2010

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED ABOUT 650 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST
OF HILO...HAWAII. ENVIRONMENT CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES WEST NORTHWEST NEAR
15 MPH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40
PERCENT...OF THIS FEATURE BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT.


$$

BRENCHLEY

[Chacor]

SHIPS no longer as optimistic as before, now calling for peak at 36 knots.

Code: Select all

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    20    20    21    24    27    33    36    36    36    31    26    19    17
V (KT) LAND       20    20    21    24    27    33    36    36    36    31    26    19    17
V (KT) LGE mod    20    20    21    21    22    24    27    29    29    28    26    22    19


[Kingarabian]

Looks okay for now has to keep it up...

[Chacor]

Nice recent blowup of convection. Definitely the CPac's best chance yet this season.

[Kingarabian]

[Macrocane]

It looks good, especially for being in the Central Pacific and in a La Niña year.

[Chacor]

And... back down to 20%.

ACPN50 PHFO 102347
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 PM HST FRI SEP 10 2010

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER 650 MILES SOUTH OF HILO HAWAII IS
MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MILES AN HOUR. THERE IS A LOW...20
PERCENT CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY MOVE INTO AN AREA OF
UNFAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT THIS
WEEKEND.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

[Chacor]

Still doesn't look horrible.

[Kingarabian]

Ships still develops this into a low end tropical storm...

[Chacor]

ACPN50 PHFO 120545
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 PM HST SAT SEP 11 2010

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ABOUT 820 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
HONOLULU IS MOVING WEST AT 10 MILES AN HOUR. THE SYSTEM IS
UNORGANIZED...AND THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS LONG SINCE DISSIPATED.
FURTHER MORE...THE AREA WILL BE IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE
PERCENT IS NEAR ZERO.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING.

$$

LAU


There goes another CPac invest.

[KWT]

Yep it was looking promising at one point but thats another invest gone, the Pacific has not been too kind this year overall...