ATL: IGOR - Advisories

[cycloneye]

000
WTNT31 KNHC 111445
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IGOR ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
1100 AM AST SAT SEP 11 2010

...IGOR EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.4N 39.5W
ABOUT 1030 MI...1660 KM W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 1470 MI...2365 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...32 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IGOR WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 39.5 WEST. IGOR IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT
48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND
IGOR IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE THIS WEEKEND.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB...29.38 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
000
WTNT41 KNHC 111449
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM IGOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
1100 AM AST SAT SEP 11 2010

ALTHOUGH THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED...VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGES SHOW A BANDING EYE PRESENTATION WITH IGOR. WHILE THE
WEAKENING OF THE CONVECTION HAS LED TO A DECREASE IN DVORAK
T-NUMBERS...IT IS PREMATURE TO LOWER THE INTENSITY AND 60 KT WILL BE
KEPT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

ALTHOUGH EASTERLY SHEAR REMAINS PRESENT...IT HAS DECREASED SINCE
YESTERDAY AND IS FORECAST TO FURTHER DIMINISH DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR SO. AROUND THAT TIME...THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER
WATERS WARMER THAN 28C. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD PROMOTE GRADUAL
STRENGTHENING IN THE SHORT-TERM...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A MORE
SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. INTERESTINGLY...
WHILE THE STATISTICAL MODELS MAKE IGOR A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...THE
GFDL AND HWRF MODELS SHOW SOME WEAKENING WITH IGOR BEFORE
RESTRENGTHENING THE CYCLONE IN A FEW DAYS. AT THIS POINT...I AM
INCLINED TO LEAN ON THE STATISTICAL MODELS AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD GIVEN THE FORECAST UPPER-LEVEL WIND PATTERN...AND HAVE RAISED
THE WINDS FOR THAT TIME.

MICROWAVE AND VISIBLE IMAGES SUGGEST THE SYSTEM HAS SLOWED A BIT AND
IS MOVING 275/17. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A
WESTWARD TRACK OF IGOR FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS RIDGING REMAINS
ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH. IN ABOUT 3 DAYS...THE WESTERN PART OF THE
RIDGE WEAKENS DUE TO A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THIS PATTERN
SHOULD ALLOW IGOR TO GAIN A BIT MORE LATITUDE AND SLOW DOWN. WHILE
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...THERE ARE
SOME LARGE SPEED DIFFERENCES...AS THE ECMWF IS SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWER
THAN MOST OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE. THE NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS ONE...ON THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN SIDES OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE...ATTEMPTING TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MODEL TENDENCIES OF BEING
TOO SLOW AND POLEWARD WITH LOW-LATITUDE SYSTEMS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 11/1500Z 17.4N 39.5W 60 KT
12HR VT 12/0000Z 17.5N 42.0W 65 KT
24HR VT 12/1200Z 17.6N 44.9W 70 KT
36HR VT 13/0000Z 17.7N 47.5W 80 KT
48HR VT 13/1200Z 17.7N 49.7W 90 KT
72HR VT 14/1200Z 18.0N 53.5W 105 KT
96HR VT 15/1200Z 19.5N 56.5W 110 KT
120HR VT 16/1200Z 21.0N 59.5W 110 KT

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[cycloneye]

ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM IGOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
500 PM AST SAT SEP 11 2010

IGOR IS VERY CLOSE TO BECOMING A HURRICANE. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW
THAT CONVECTION HAS INCREASED AROUND THE CENTER AND HAVE RECENTLY
SUGGESTED THAT AN EYEWALL COULD BE FORMING. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE
INTENSITY ESTIMATION TECHNIQUES SUGGEST IGOR IS A HURRICANE...IT IS
PREFERABLE TO WAIT AND SEE IF THE CONVECTION STICKS AROUND AND TO
GET MICROWAVE CONFIRMATION OF THE INNER CORE STRUCTURE.

MOST OF THE ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS NEAR THE CYCLONE SEEM RATHER
CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING. GLOBAL MODELS ALL BUILD AN UPPER
ANTICYCLONE JUST TO THE NORTH OF IGOR...A RATHER FAVORABLE PATTERN
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MAJOR HURRICANE. SSTS AND OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT ALSO INCREASE STEADILY ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK. THE MOST
OBVIOUS INHIBITING FACTOR IS PERHAPS A WEDGE OF DRIER AIR THAT HAS
WORKED ITS WAY INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CIRCULATION.
HOWEVER...THAT DRY AIR PROBABLY WILL NOT BE ABLE TO MAKE IT INTO
THE INNER CORE WITHOUT SOME SHEAR...AND THAT DOES NOT SEEM LIKELY AT
THIS TIME. THUS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS RAISED FROM THE
PREVIOUS ONE...BUT PEAKS BELOW THE LGEM AND SHIPS MODELS. IT IS OF
NOTE THAT ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LARGE
AND POWERFUL HURRICANE...AND THE FORECAST WIND RADII HAVE BEEN
INCREASED.

IGOR REMAINS ON TRACK AND IS MOVING 275/16. THE SYNOPTIC STEERING
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS APPEARS WELL DEFINED WITH A RIDGE TO THE
NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDING THE CYCLONE GENERALLY
WESTWARD. HOWEVER...THE STRENGTH OF THIS RIDGE IS CRITICAL TO WHEN
IGOR BEGINS A MORE WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION. THE MODELS THAT MOVE THE
STORM FASTER TO THE WEST INITIALLY...SUCH AS THE NOGAPS OR
UKMET...ALLOW IGOR TO GET A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS BEFORE MAKING A WEST-NORTHWEST TURN IN TWO OR THREE DAYS.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER GROUP OF MODELS...INCLUDING THE GFS/GFDL
SOLUTIONS...SHOW THAT TURN OCCURRING IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THE
MODEL SPREAD HAS INCREASED SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY...AND I HAVE
ELECTED NOT TO CHANGE THE FORECAST MUCH...WHICH REMAINS TO THE
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS FOR NOW.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 11/2100Z 17.4N 41.2W 60 KT
12HR VT 12/0600Z 17.5N 43.6W 70 KT
24HR VT 12/1800Z 17.6N 46.4W 80 KT
36HR VT 13/0600Z 17.7N 48.8W 90 KT
48HR VT 13/1800Z 17.9N 51.0W 100 KT
72HR VT 14/1800Z 18.8N 54.8W 115 KT
96HR VT 15/1800Z 20.3N 57.7W 115 KT
120HR VT 16/1800Z 22.0N 60.5W 115 KT

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[cycloneye]

WTNT31 KNHC 120231
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IGOR ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
1100 PM AST SAT SEP 11 2010

...IGOR STRENGTHENS INTO A HURRICANE...THE FOURTH OF THE SEASON...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.7N 42.5W
ABOUT 1230 MI...1975 KM W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 1275 MI...2050 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IGOR WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 42.5 WEST. IGOR IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION
WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IGOR IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND
IGOR COULD REACH MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH BY LATE MONDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB...29.29 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

000
WTNT41 KNHC 120233
TCDAT1
HURRICANE IGOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
1100 PM AST SAT SEP 11 2010

THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH IGOR HAS INCREASED IN ORGANIZATION
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. A TIGHTLY-COILED BAND...WITH CLOUD
TOP TEMPERATURES TO -85C...WRAPS AROUND THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE INTO
A DEVELOPING CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. AN EYE FEATURE HAS ALSO BEEN
BRIEFLY INTERMITTENT IN CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND A
NUMBER OF MICROWAVE PASSES SEVERAL HOURS AGO REVEALED A DISTINCT
CONVECTIVE RING SURROUNDING THE CENTER. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBERS
AT 0000 UTC WERE A CONSENSUS 4.0 FROM BOTH SATELLITE AGENCIES...AND
3-HOURLY AVERAGED ADT VALUES FROM UW-CIMSS ARE 4.3. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 65 KT THIS ADVISORY...MAKING IGOR THE FOURTH
HURRICANE OF THE 2010 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON. THE UNDERLYING
OCEAN ONLY GETS WARMER ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK OF IGOR...PEAKING
AROUND 29C IN ABOUT 3 DAYS. THAT...COMBINED WITH A LIGHT SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT...WOULD FAVOR A STRENGTHENING TREND FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...AND NEARLY ALL THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE MAKES IGOR A MAJOR
HURRICANE BY 72 HOURS. THEREAFTER...WHILE FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY
MAY OCCUR...IGOR IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS AND
BE A LARGE HURRICANE OVER THE CENTRAL NORTH ATLANTIC.

IGOR HAS MAINTAINED ROUGHLY THE SAME MOTION...275/15...THOUGH
PERHAPS A TAD SLOWER THAN EARLIER. SUBTROPICAL RIDGING NORTH OF
THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE THE DOMINANT STEERING FEATURE FOR THE NEXT 2
TO 3 DAYS...CARRYING IGOR ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK. BEYOND THIS
TIME...DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW IGOR SLOWING AND TURNING WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AS IT APPROACHES AND THEN MOVES INTO A SUBSTANTIAL
BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. AS WAS THE CASE IN THE PREVIOUS
MODEL CYCLE...THERE CONTINUES TO BE CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE
TRACK GUIDANCE...WITH THE GFDL/HWRF THE RIGHTMOST OF MODEL
SOLUTIONS AND THE UKMET/NOGAPS THE LEFTMOST. THESE DIFFERENCES
SEEM TO HINGE ON THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE...WITH THE FORMER MODELS FORECASTING A WEAKER RIDGE DISPLACED
TO THE EAST WHILE LATTER INDICATE A MORE ROBUST RIDGE EXTENDING
FARTHER WEST. THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO
THE RIGHT...FOLLOWING THE TREND IN THE GUIDANCE... BUT IS NOT AS
FAR RIGHT AS THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 12/0300Z 17.7N 42.5W 65 KT
12HR VT 12/1200Z 17.8N 44.8W 75 KT
24HR VT 13/0000Z 17.9N 47.4W 80 KT
36HR VT 13/1200Z 18.1N 49.7W 90 KT
48HR VT 14/0000Z 18.4N 51.9W 100 KT
72HR VT 15/0000Z 19.5N 55.0W 110 KT
96HR VT 16/0000Z 21.5N 58.0W 115 KT
120HR VT 17/0000Z 23.5N 61.0W 115 KT

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

[cycloneye]

000
WTNT41 KNHC 120840
TCDAT1
HURRICANE IGOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
500 AM AST SUN SEP 12 2010

SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT IGOR HAS STRENGTHENED A LITTLE MORE
THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS WERE 65 KT FROM BOTH
TAFB AND SAB AT 0600 UTC...THE CURVED BAND OVER THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED AND THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN
IS NOW MORE SYMMETRIC. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED
TO 70 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE ADT
ESTIMATES.

CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS IGOR MOVES OVER STEADILY INCREASING SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND REMAINS IN A LOW WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. MOST OF
THE INTENSITY MODELS BRING IGOR TO MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS WITHIN A
COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS GUIDANCE.
BEYOND A FEW DAYS...THE MODELS ARE MIXED WITH SOME SHOWING LITTLE
CHANGE IN STRENGTH AND OTHERS GRADUAL WEAKENING. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND CLOSER TO THE LGEM
AND SHIPS MODELS...PREDICTING IGOR TO MAINTAIN MAJOR HURRICANE
STATUS.

IGOR CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD ABOUT THE SAME SPEED AS ESTIMATED
EARLIER...275/16. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE
HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP IGOR ON A WESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT
2 TO 3 DAYS. THEREAFTER...THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT IN
SHOWING THE RIDGE ERODE DUE TO PERSISTENT BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS FLOW PATTERN SHOULD ALLOW IGOR TO TURN
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD DURING THAT TIME PERIOD. THE
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH FROM THE LAST CYCLE...AND
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS GENERALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 12/0900Z 17.7N 44.4W 70 KT
12HR VT 12/1800Z 17.9N 46.5W 75 KT
24HR VT 13/0600Z 18.1N 49.1W 80 KT
36HR VT 13/1800Z 18.3N 51.3W 90 KT
48HR VT 14/0600Z 18.7N 53.2W 100 KT
72HR VT 15/0600Z 20.2N 56.3W 115 KT
96HR VT 16/0600Z 22.5N 59.0W 115 KT
120HR VT 17/0600Z 24.5N 62.0W 115 KT

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

[cycloneye]

000
WTNT31 KNHC 121455
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IGOR ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
1100 AM AST SUN SEP 12 2010

...IGOR BECOMES A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.7N 45.7W
ABOUT 1145 MI...1840 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.64 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IGOR WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 45.7 WEST. IGOR IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR
...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IGOR IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND
IGOR COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY MONDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BRENNAN

[cycloneye]

000
WTNT41 KNHC 121503
TCDAT1
HURRICANE IGOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
1100 AM AST SUN SEP 12 2010

CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT IGOR IS GOING THROUGH
A PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION. VISIBLE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
CLEARING EYE AND INFRARED IMAGERY AND AN SSMIS OVERPASS REVEAL AN
INTENSE FULLY-DEVELOPED INNER RING OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE OUTFLOW
HAS BECOME QUITE IMPRESSIVE...PARTICULARLY OVER THE EASTERN PORTION
OF THE CYCLONE WHERE THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS RESIDE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 90 KT IS BASED ON A COMPROMISE OF SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 77 AND 90 KT FROM SAB AND TAFB...RESPECTIVELY...A
UW-CIMSS ADT OF 107 KT...AND A SATELLITE CONSENSUS OF 86 KT...THAT
INCLUDES A BLEND OF AMSU MICROWAVE ESTIMATES. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE RI TREND...AND INDICATES STRENGTHENING TO A MAJOR
HURRICANE IN 12 HOURS...WITH FURTHER INTENSIFICATION TO A CATEGORY
FOUR HURRICANE BY DAY 2. THE FORECAST IS BASED ON THE ICON
CONSENSUS BUT IS HEDGED A BIT MORE TOWARD THE SHIPS AND LGEM BEYOND
48 HOURS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 270/11...WITHIN THE DEEP-LAYER
EASTERLY FLOW OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF IGOR. THE LARGE-
SCALE MODELS SUGGEST THAT A DEVELOPING WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL RESULT IN A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TURN
IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. AFTERWARD...A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS
INDICATED AS IGOR ROUNDS THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE
AND MOVES INTO THE WEAKNESS. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE
DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE BEYOND DAY 2. A CLUSTER THAT INCLUDES THE
GFDL...THE GFS AND THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SUGGESTS A WEAKER RIDGE
AND AN EARLIER TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
BASED ON PRIMARILY ON THE TVCN MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS BUT IS
ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BEYOND DAY 3
AND CLOSER TO THE UKMET...ECMWF...AND THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 12/1500Z 17.7N 45.7W 90 KT
12HR VT 13/0000Z 17.8N 47.5W 105 KT
24HR VT 13/1200Z 18.0N 49.8W 110 KT
36HR VT 14/0000Z 18.4N 51.8W 115 KT
48HR VT 14/1200Z 19.0N 53.6W 115 KT
72HR VT 15/1200Z 20.7N 56.7W 125 KT
96HR VT 16/1200Z 22.6N 59.6W 125 KT
120HR VT 17/1200Z 24.5N 62.5W 125 KT

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BRENNAN

[cycloneye]

WTNT31 KNHC 121806
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IGOR SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
230 PM AST SUN SEP 12 2010

...IGOR RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES INTO A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 230 PM AST...1830 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.7N 46.1W
ABOUT 1120 MI...1800 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH...215 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.05 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 230 PM AST...1830 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IGOR WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 46.1 WEST. IGOR IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IGOR IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...65 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160
MILES...260 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 950 MB...28.05 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BRENNAN

[Brent]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IGOR SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
230 PM AST SUN SEP 12 2010

...IGOR RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES INTO A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 230 PM AST...1830 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.7N 46.1W
ABOUT 1120 MI...1800 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH...215 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.05 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 230 PM AST...1830 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IGOR WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 46.1 WEST. IGOR IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IGOR IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...65 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160
MILES...260 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 950 MB...28.05 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BRENNAN

[cycloneye]

KNHC 122038
TCDAT1
HURRICANE IGOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
500 PM AST SUN SEP 12 2010

IGOR CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AT A RAPID PACE. DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES AND THE UW-CIMSS ADT HAVE INCREASED FURTHER...AND THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY UPWARD TO 120 KT BASED ON A
COMPROMISE OF THESE DATA AND THE LATEST SATCON INTENSITY ESTIMATE.
THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST HAS ALSO BEEN ADJUSTED TO SHOW SOME
FURTHER STRENGTHENING AND A PEAK INTENSITY AT DAY 3 OF 135
KT...SIMILAR TO SHIPS MODEL. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR SOME GRADUAL WEAKENING AND IS BASED
PRIMARILY ON THE ICON CONSENSUS MODEL. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT
FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH DUE TO EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES ARE
POSSIBLE...HOWEVER...THERE IS LITTLE SKILL IN FORECASTING THE
TIMING OF THESE CYCLES.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS 270/12. THE TRACK FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY REMAINS UNCHANGED FOR THIS ADVISORY...HOWEVER THERE IS
STILL CONSIDERABLE DYNAMICAL MODEL SPREAD AFTER 36 HOURS. THE
HWRF...UKMET AND ECMWF REMAIN TO THE LEFT OF THE CONSENSUS AND ARE
SLIGHTLY SLOWER...WHILE THE OTHER REGIONAL AND GLOBAL MODELS
SUGGEST A MORE PRONOUNCED WEAKNESS WITH TIME IN THE MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS NUDGED TO THE RIGHT OF
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AFTER DAY 3...CLOSER TO THE TVCN CONSENSUS
MODEL...BUT STILL TO THE LEFT OUT OF RESPECT TO THE RELIABLE ECMWF
MODEL.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 12/2100Z 17.7N 46.9W 120 KT
12HR VT 13/0600Z 17.8N 48.7W 125 KT
24HR VT 13/1800Z 18.1N 50.8W 125 KT
36HR VT 14/0600Z 18.7N 52.6W 130 KT
48HR VT 14/1800Z 19.4N 54.3W 130 KT
72HR VT 15/1800Z 21.3N 57.1W 135 KT
96HR VT 16/1800Z 23.5N 60.0W 125 KT
120HR VT 17/1800Z 25.8N 62.9W 120 KT

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BRENNAN

[Brent]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IGOR ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
500 PM AST SUN SEP 12 2010

...LARGE AND POWERFUL IGOR MOVING WESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL
ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.7N 46.9W
ABOUT 1065 MI...1715 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...942 MB...27.82 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IGOR WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 46.9 WEST. IGOR IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 140 MPH...220
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IGOR IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...65 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160
MILES...260 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 942 MB...27.82 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BRENNAN

HURRICANE IGOR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
2100 UTC SUN SEP 12 2010

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 46.9W AT 12/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 942 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE 30SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 55SE 45SW 60NW.
34 KT.......140NE 110SE 90SW 130NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 30SE 60SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 46.9W AT 12/2100Z
AT 12/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 46.3W

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 17.8N 48.7W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 35SE 35SW 40NW.
50 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT...180NE 150SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 18.1N 50.8W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 35SE 35SW 40NW.
50 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT...180NE 150SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 18.7N 52.6W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT...110NE 90SE 80SW 80NW.
34 KT...190NE 160SE 130SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 19.4N 54.3W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
50 KT...110NE 90SE 80SW 80NW.
34 KT...190NE 160SE 130SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 21.3N 57.1W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
50 KT...110NE 90SE 80SW 80NW.
34 KT...190NE 160SE 130SW 160NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 23.5N 60.0W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 25.8N 62.9W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.7N 46.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BRENNAN

HURRICANE IGOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
500 PM AST SUN SEP 12 2010

IGOR CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AT A RAPID PACE. DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES AND THE UW-CIMSS ADT HAVE INCREASED FURTHER...AND THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY UPWARD TO 120 KT BASED ON A
COMPROMISE OF THESE DATA AND THE LATEST SATCON INTENSITY ESTIMATE.
THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST HAS ALSO BEEN ADJUSTED TO SHOW SOME
FURTHER STRENGTHENING AND A PEAK INTENSITY AT DAY 3 OF 135
KT...SIMILAR TO SHIPS MODEL. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR SOME GRADUAL WEAKENING AND IS BASED
PRIMARILY ON THE ICON CONSENSUS MODEL. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT
FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH DUE TO EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES ARE
POSSIBLE...HOWEVER...THERE IS LITTLE SKILL IN FORECASTING THE
TIMING OF THESE CYCLES.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS 270/12. THE TRACK FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY REMAINS UNCHANGED FOR THIS ADVISORY...HOWEVER THERE IS
STILL CONSIDERABLE DYNAMICAL MODEL SPREAD AFTER 36 HOURS. THE
HWRF...UKMET AND ECMWF REMAIN TO THE LEFT OF THE CONSENSUS AND ARE
SLIGHTLY SLOWER...WHILE THE OTHER REGIONAL AND GLOBAL MODELS
SUGGEST A MORE PRONOUNCED WEAKNESS WITH TIME IN THE MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS NUDGED TO THE RIGHT OF
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AFTER DAY 3...CLOSER TO THE TVCN CONSENSUS
MODEL...BUT STILL TO THE LEFT OUT OF RESPECT TO THE RELIABLE ECMWF
MODEL.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 12/2100Z 17.7N 46.9W 120 KT
12HR VT 13/0600Z 17.8N 48.7W 125 KT
24HR VT 13/1800Z 18.1N 50.8W 125 KT
36HR VT 14/0600Z 18.7N 52.6W 130 KT
48HR VT 14/1800Z 19.4N 54.3W 130 KT
72HR VT 15/1800Z 21.3N 57.1W 135 KT
96HR VT 16/1800Z 23.5N 60.0W 125 KT
120HR VT 17/1800Z 25.8N 62.9W 120 KT

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BRENNAN

[Brent]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IGOR ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
1100 PM AST SUN SEP 12 2010

...IGOR STILL INTENSIFYING...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.6N 47.8W
ABOUT 1005 MI...1620 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...935 MB...27.61 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE IGOR WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 47.8 WEST. IGOR IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 150 MPH...240
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IGOR IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATION IN
INTENSITY IS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND IGOR COULD
BECOME A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON MONDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...65 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160
MILES...260 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 935 MB...27.61 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

HURRICANE IGOR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
0300 UTC MON SEP 13 2010

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 47.8W AT 13/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 935 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE 30SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 55SE 45SW 60NW.
34 KT.......140NE 110SE 90SW 130NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 60SE 90SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 47.8W AT 13/0300Z
AT 13/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 47.3W

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 17.8N 49.5W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 35SE 35SW 40NW.
50 KT... 75NE 60SE 50SW 75NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 105SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 18.2N 51.3W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 40SE 40SW 45NW.
50 KT... 90NE 75SE 60SW 75NW.
34 KT...180NE 150SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 18.9N 53.0W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 40SE 40SW 45NW.
50 KT... 90NE 75SE 60SW 75NW.
34 KT...180NE 150SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 19.8N 54.6W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 75SE 75SW 90NW.
34 KT...180NE 165SE 135SW 165NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 22.0N 57.5W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
50 KT...105NE 90SE 75SW 90NW.
34 KT...210NE 180SE 165SW 180NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 24.0N 60.0W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 27.0N 63.0W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.6N 47.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

HURRICANE IGOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
1100 PM AST SUN SEP 12 2010

IGOR HAS CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY WITH VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS...LOWER
THAN -70C...WRAPPING AROUND THE SLOWLY-SHRINKING EYE DURING THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS. ALTHOUGH THE TOPS HAVE RECENTLY WARMED A
LITTLE OVER THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT...SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES
FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE T6.5/127 KT AND OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES FROM THE
ADT AND HIE ALGORITHMS ARE T6.6/130 KT AND T6.9/137 KT...
RESPECTIVELY. AS A COMPROMISE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT
130 KT. AN EXPERIMENTAL PRODUCT FROM UW-CIMSS RUN AT NHC INDICATES
THAT THERE IS A 42 PERCENT CHANCE OF SECONDARY EYEWALL FORMATION
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS...AND A 90 PERCENT CHANCE WITHIN 24 HOURS.
THE PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS LIKELY TO END SOON...BUT THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SHIPS/LGEM MODELS BY SHOWING IGOR
REACHING THE THRESHOLD OF CATEGORY 5 STRENGTH BEFORE THAT HAPPENS.
SOME WEAKENING IS THEN INDICATED AFTER EYEWALL REPLACEMENT
OCCURS...BUT IGOR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A POWERFUL HURRICANE FOR
SEVERAL DAYS. AS IS ALWAYS THE CASE WITH STRONG HURRICANES LIKE
IGOR...FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY BUT ARE ALSO DIFFICULT
TO FORECAST.

THE MEAN MOTION IS 270/11...BUT IGOR HAS BEEN WOBBLING A LITTLE TO
THE SOUTH OF THAT VECTOR. IGOR IS MOVING INTO AN ENVIRONMENT WHERE
THE STEERING FLOW IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY DICTATED BY A LARGE
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...AND THE HURRICANE IS
EXPECTED TO RESPOND BY TURNING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITHIN THE
NEXT 24-48 HOURS. SOME OF THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE
TROUGH COULD FLATTEN A LITTLE BY DAY 3 AND ALLOW THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO BUILD WESTWARD...BUT AT THIS TIME THERE IS TOO MUCH
DISAGREEMENT TO INDICATE A WESTWARD TURN IN THE FORECAST. THE
TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE NORTH...BUT THE NEW
OFFICIAL FORECAST STILL LIES ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE UNTIL IT BECOMES CLEAR THAT IGOR IS READY TO TURN. THIS
SOLUTION ALSO GIVES CREDENCE TO THE MORE SOUTHERN ECMWF AND UKMET
MODELS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 13/0300Z 17.6N 47.8W 130 KT
12HR VT 13/1200Z 17.8N 49.5W 140 KT
24HR VT 14/0000Z 18.2N 51.3W 135 KT
36HR VT 14/1200Z 18.9N 53.0W 130 KT
48HR VT 15/0000Z 19.8N 54.6W 125 KT
72HR VT 16/0000Z 22.0N 57.5W 125 KT
96HR VT 17/0000Z 24.0N 60.0W 120 KT
120HR VT 18/0000Z 27.0N 63.0W 110 KT

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[WeatherGuesser]

000
WTNT31 KNHC 130832
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IGOR ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
500 AM AST MON SEP 13 2010

...CATEGORY FOUR IGOR CONTINUES WESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.7N 48.8W
ABOUT 940 MI...1515 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...935 MB...27.61 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IGOR WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 48.8 WEST. IGOR IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR TONIGHT OR TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 150 MPH...240 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. IGOR IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATION IN
INTENSITY IS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND IGOR COULD
BECOME A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE TODAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...65 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 935 MB...27.61 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

[cycloneye]

000
WTNT31 KNHC 131443
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IGOR ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
1100 AM AST MON SEP 13 2010

...CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE IGOR MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.5N 49.7W
ABOUT 880 MI...1420 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...933 MB...27.55 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IGOR WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.7 WEST. IGOR IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT OR TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 150 MPH...240 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. IGOR IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY
ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND IGOR IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN A POWERFUL HURRICANE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 933 MB...27.55 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[cycloneye]

000
WTNT41 KNHC 131448
TCDAT1
HURRICANE IGOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
1100 AM AST MON SEP 13 2010

IGOR CONTINUES TO HAVE A DISTINCT EYE SURROUNDED BY TOPS OF -60C TO
-70C. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE 6.5...AND THE
INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 130 KT. THE UW-CIMSS SECONDARY EYEWALL
FORMATION INDEX STRONGLY SUGGESTS THAT A SECONDARY EYEWALL WILL
FORM IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME
SHORT TERM INTENSITY FLUCTUATIONS THAT ARE NOT REPRESENTED IN THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST. ON LONGER TIME SCALES...ALL OF THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT IGOR IS NEAR PEAK INTENSITY...AND SHOW
GRADUAL WEAKENING THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...SINCE THE CYCLONE
REMAINS IN WHAT APPEARS TO BE AN IDEAL ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT 72
HOURS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED ONLY SLIGHTLY DOWNWARD
THROUGH THAT TIME. AT DAYS 4 AND 5...VERTICAL SHEAR MAY BEGIN TO
INCREASE OVER THE HURRICANE...HOWEVER...THIS INCREASE WILL BE
SENSITIVE TO THE VERY UNCERTAIN TRACK FORECAST AT THOSE TIME
RANGES. THEREFORE...AT THOSE TIMES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE
TO OR A LITTLE ABOVE THE STRONGEST MODEL...THE SHIPS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 265/9 KNOTS...A LITTLE SLOWER THAN
BEFORE...AND A BIT SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE UKMET...SHOWS IGOR TURNING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST BY TONIGHT AND THEN TURNING NORTHWESTWARD
BY 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES INTO A LARGE BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE
THROUGH 12 HOURS GIVEN THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION. FROM 12
THROUGH 48 HOURS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO BUT A LITTLE
SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND TRENDS TOWARD THE TVCN
CONSENSUS MODEL FORWARD SPEED. AT 72 HOURS AND BEYOND THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE-SCALE FLOW
AND THE TRACK OF IGOR. THE ECMWF AND UKMET SHOW MORE MID-LEVEL
RIDGING NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF IGOR OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND
MOVE IGOR SLOWER AND FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE AT
DAYS 3 THROUGH 5. THE GFS...GFDL...AND GFDN KEEP THIS RIDGE FARTHER
EAST AND ALLOW IGOR TO GAIN MORE LATITUDE AND RECURVE AHEAD OF A
LONGWAVE TROUGH SITUATED OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES. THE NOGAPS AND HWRF ARE BETWEEN THESE TWO CAMPS AND SHOW A
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT DAY 5. GIVEN THE INCREASING SPREAD OF THE
GUIDANCE LATE IN THE PERIOD...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMPLY AN
UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AT THESE TIMES AND IS OF LOWER
CONFIDENCE THAN NORMAL. THE NHC TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE NOGAPS AND
WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE UKMET AND ECMWF AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 13/1500Z 17.5N 49.7W 130 KT
12HR VT 14/0000Z 17.9N 50.8W 135 KT
24HR VT 14/1200Z 18.7N 52.3W 130 KT
36HR VT 15/0000Z 19.5N 53.7W 130 KT
48HR VT 15/1200Z 20.6N 55.2W 125 KT
72HR VT 16/1200Z 23.0N 58.0W 115 KT
96HR VT 17/1200Z 25.5N 60.5W 110 KT
120HR VT 18/1200Z 29.0N 63.5W 100 KT

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[Brent]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IGOR ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
500 PM AST MON SEP 13 2010

...IGOR CONTINUES WESTWARD...EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.7N 50.5W
ABOUT 830 MI...1335 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...933 MB...27.55 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE IGOR WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 50.5 WEST. IGOR IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 150 MPH...240 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT IGOR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A POWERFUL
HURRICANE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 195
MILES...315 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 933 MB...27.55 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY IGOR WILL BEGIN AFFECTING THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS ON TUESDAY...AND WILL REACH PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. Â PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

HURRICANE IGOR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
2100 UTC MON SEP 13 2010

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 50.5W AT 13/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 933 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT.
64 KT....... 45NE 35SE 30SW 45NW.
50 KT....... 85NE 65SE 55SW 85NW.
34 KT.......170NE 140SE 110SW 130NW.
12 FT SEAS..330NE 180SE 180SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 50.5W AT 13/2100Z
AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 50.1W

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 18.1N 51.7W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 35SE 35SW 45NW.
50 KT... 80NE 65SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...170NE 150SE 110SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 18.9N 53.2W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 45NW.
50 KT... 90NE 75SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...170NE 160SE 110SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 20.0N 54.7W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 45SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT... 90NE 75SE 65SW 85NW.
34 KT...180NE 160SE 110SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 21.1N 56.1W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
50 KT... 95NE 80SE 70SW 85NW.
34 KT...180NE 160SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 23.5N 58.5W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
50 KT...105NE 85SE 75SW 90NW.
34 KT...210NE 180SE 130SW 170NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 26.5N 61.5W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 30.0N 64.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.7N 50.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

HURRICANE IGOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
500 PM AST MON SEP 13 2010

THE STRUCTURE OF IGOR HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.
THE EYE REMAINS VERY DISTINCT IN IR AND VISIBLE IMAGERY...AND
ALTHOUGH THE TOPS SURROUNDING THE EYE HAVE WARMED A BIT...DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS STILL SUPPORT AN INTENSITY OF 130 KT. IGOR WILL
REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR MAINTAINING ITS CURRENT
INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
DOES NOT SHOW ANY WEAKENING UNTIL AFTER 48 HOURS. WHILE A 1640 UTC
AMSR-E PASS DOES NOT SHOW ANY EVIDENCE OF A SECONDARY EYEWALL
YET...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE WILL OCCUR
IN THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME INTENSITY
FLUCTUATIONS NOT REPRESENTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. BEYOND 36
HOURS...ALL OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT SLOW WEAKENING
SHOULD BEGIN...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE NO OVERLY NEGATIVE FACTORS UNTIL
THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD WHEN THE VERTICAL SHEAR MAY INCREASE.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A GRADUAL WEAKENING AT DAYS 3 THROUGH 5
BUT IS HIGHER THAN MOST OF THE GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS STILL DUE WEST...270 DEGREES...AT 9 KNOTS.
ALL OF THE GUIDANCE...EXCEPT THE UKMET...INSISTS ON A TURN TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS IGOR BEGINS TO MOVE INTO
A LARGE WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE
INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS AGAIN BEEN
ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH 48
HOURS. BEYOND THAT TIME...THERE IS STILL SOME SPREAD IN THE TRACK
GUIDANCE. THE ECMWF AND UKMET STILL SHOW A STRONGER RIDGE NORTH OF
IGOR THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...TAKING THE CYCLONE FARTHER WEST
THAN THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE. THE GFS AND GFDL CONTINUE TO SHOW
THE LEAST RIDGING AND TURN IGOR NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT THE END OF
THE PERIOD AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. WHILE CONFIDENCE IN THE
TRACK FORECAST LATE IN THE PERIOD REMAINS LOW...THE GUIDANCE SHOWS
A LITTLE LESS SPREAD NOW THAN EARLIER TODAY. THE NEW OFFICIAL
FORECAST SHOWS A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...AND IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THIS ENDS UP BEING VERY CLOSE TO
THE TVCN MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF
MODELS.

LARGE SWELLS FROM IGOR WILL BEGIN AFFECTING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
TOMORROW AND REACH PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS BY WEDNESDAY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 13/2100Z 17.7N 50.5W 130 KT
12HR VT 14/0600Z 18.1N 51.7W 130 KT
24HR VT 14/1800Z 18.9N 53.2W 130 KT
36HR VT 15/0600Z 20.0N 54.7W 130 KT
48HR VT 15/1800Z 21.1N 56.1W 130 KT
72HR VT 16/1800Z 23.5N 58.5W 120 KT
96HR VT 17/1800Z 26.5N 61.5W 110 KT
120HR VT 18/1800Z 30.0N 64.0W 105 KT

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[Brent]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IGOR ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
1100 PM AST MON SEP 13 2010

...IGOR WEAKENS A LITTLE BUT STILL AN INTENSE CATEGORY 4
HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.7N 51.2W
ABOUT 785 MI...1260 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...937 MB...27.67 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE IGOR WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 51.2 WEST. IGOR IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL SPEED WITH A
TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY
A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST EARLY WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 140 MPH...220
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IGOR IS STILL A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE
ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN
INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT IGOR IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN A POWERFUL HURRICANE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 195
MILES...315 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 937 MB...27.67 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY IGOR WILL BEGIN AFFECTING THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS ON TUESDAY...AND WILL REACH PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

HURRICANE IGOR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
0300 UTC TUE SEP 14 2010

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 51.2W AT 14/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 937 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT.
64 KT....... 45NE 35SE 30SW 45NW.
50 KT....... 85NE 65SE 55SW 85NW.
34 KT.......170NE 140SE 110SW 130NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 180SE 180SW 330NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 51.2W AT 14/0300Z
AT 14/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 50.9W

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 18.0N 52.3W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 40SE 35SW 45NW.
50 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 85NW.
34 KT...180NE 150SE 120SW 135NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 18.8N 53.7W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 45NW.
50 KT... 90NE 75SE 65SW 90NW.
34 KT...195NE 160SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 19.9N 55.2W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 45NW.
50 KT... 90NE 75SE 65SW 90NW.
34 KT...195NE 160SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 21.1N 56.6W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
50 KT... 95NE 80SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT...195NE 175SE 135SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 24.0N 59.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT...110NE 85SE 75SW 95NW.
34 KT...225NE 180SE 135SW 175NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 27.0N 62.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 30.5N 64.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.7N 51.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

HURRICANE IGOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
1100 PM AST MON SEP 13 2010

MICROWAVE AND GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT AN
EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE MAY HAVE BEGUN. TRMM...WINDSAT...AND
SSMIS PASSES FROM ABOUT 5-6 HOURS AGO ALL INDICATED THAT A
SECONDARY EYEWALL WAS BEGINNING TO FORM...AND MORE RECENTLY
CONVECTIVE TOPS AROUND THE EYE HAVE BEEN WARMING. SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK FINAL-T ESTIMATES HAD FALLEN TO T6.0 TAFB AND SAB AT 0000
UTC...AND THE LATEST OBJECTIVE ADT ESTIMATE IS T6.0/6.4. BASED ON
THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 120 KT. FOLLOWING
A CONSENSUS OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST KEEPS
IGOR AT THIS INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...BUT IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT ADDITIONAL WEAKENING COULD OCCUR WHILE THE EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT IS IN PROGRESS. SINCE IGOR IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE
OVER WARM OCEAN WATERS AND REMAIN IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...THE
FORECAST ALLOWS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME RE-STRENGTHENING
BETWEEN 36-48 HOURS...WHICH IS HINTED AT IN THE SHIPS OUTPUT.
WEAKENING IS THEN INDICATED DURING DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...BUT IT IS
CONSERVATIVE AND STILL LIES JUST ABOVE THE UPPER BOUND OF THE
GUIDANCE.

IGOR JUST WILL NOT BUDGE VERY MUCH TO THE NORTH AND IS MOVING 275
DEGREES AT 8 KT. THE UKMET MODEL HAS CAPTURED THIS MOTION WELL
OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS AND HAS CONSISTENTLY BEEN LOCATED ON
THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. SINCE THERE IS STILL
NO CLEAR EVIDENCE OF THE BEGINNING OF A TURN...THE NHC FORECAST
TRACK LIES ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE FOR
THE FIRST 24 HOURS...ALTHOUGH STILL NOT AS FAR SOUTH AS THE UKMET.
A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED BY 36 HOURS WHEN IGOR
SHOULD HAVE REACHED THE BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE SPREAD
IN THE MODELS FROM DAYS 3 THROUGH 5 HAS AGAIN TIGHTENED...AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CHANGED LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE. THIS
FORECAST ALSO LIES CLOSE TO A MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS THAT EXCLUDES
THE GFDN...WHICH HAS BEEN FASTER THAN THE OTHER GUIDANCE FOR
SEVERAL CYCLES.

LARGE SWELLS FROM IGOR WILL BEGIN AFFECTING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
TOMORROW AND REACH PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS BY WEDNESDAY.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 14/0300Z 17.7N 51.2W 120 KT
12HR VT 14/1200Z 18.0N 52.3W 120 KT
24HR VT 15/0000Z 18.8N 53.7W 120 KT
36HR VT 15/1200Z 19.9N 55.2W 125 KT
48HR VT 16/0000Z 21.1N 56.6W 125 KT
72HR VT 17/0000Z 24.0N 59.5W 115 KT
96HR VT 18/0000Z 27.0N 62.5W 105 KT
120HR VT 19/0000Z 30.5N 64.5W 95 KT

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[WeatherGuesser]

000
WTNT31 KNHC 140833
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IGOR ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
500 AM AST TUE SEP 14 2010

...CATEGORY 4 IGOR NOW MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.9N 51.7W
ABOUT 750 MI...1205 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH...215 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB...27.91 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IGOR WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 51.7 WEST. IGOR IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED A LITTLE MORE AND ARE NOW
NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IGOR IS STILL A
CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE.
SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS...BUT IGOR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A DANGEROUS HURRICANE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 195
MILES...315 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 945 MB...27.91 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY IGOR WILL BEGIN AFFECTING THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS TODAY...AND WILL REACH PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[lester]

WTNT31 KNHC 141443 TCPAT BULLETIN HURRICANE IGOR ADVISORY NUMBER 26 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010 1100 AM AST TUE SEP 14 2010...CATEGORY 4 IGOR MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.. SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.3N 52.3W ABOUT 710 MI...1140 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH...215 KM/HR PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/HR MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB...27.91 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IGOR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 52.3 WEST. IGOR IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IGOR IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT IGOR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A DANGEROUS HURRICANE THROUGH THURSDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 195 MILES...315 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 945 MB...27.91 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY IGOR WILL BEGIN AFFECTING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TODAY...AND WILL REACH PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION. NEXT ADVISORY------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

[cycloneye]

000
WTNT41 KNHC 142059
TCDAT1
HURRICANE IGOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
500 PM AST TUE SEP 14 2010

CLOUD TOPS SURROUNDING THE EYE HAVE COOLED CONSIDERABLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND THE EYE HAS ALSO WARMED AND BECOME MORE DISTINCT IN
BOTH VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. SEVERAL DISTINCT
VORTICES INSIDE THE EYE WERE ALSO NOTED...SIMILAR TO WHAT HAS BEEN
SEEN WITH PAST HURRICANES THAT WERE NEAR CATEGORY 5 STRENGTH. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 125 KT AND IS SUPPORTED BY
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T6.5/127 KT FROM SAB...3-HR
AVERAGE ODT VALUES OF T6.7/133 KT FROM TAFB...AND UW-CIMSS ADT
VALUES OF T6.5/127 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/07...BASED ON A 12-HR AVERAGE OF
SMOOTHING OUT THE MANY TROCHOIDAL WOBBLES IN THE TRACK. IGOR MAY
BRIEFLY WOBBLE BACK TO THE WEST DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...BUT
THE GENERAL MOTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS SHOULD BE TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AFTER THAT
THROUGH 72 HOURS. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING QUICKLY IN
THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S. AND THE NORTH
ATLANTIC IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
BETWEEN 60W-70W LONGITUDE ABOUT EVERY 24-36 HOURS. AS A RESULT...
IGOR IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD IN 96-120 HOURS AS DEEP-LAYER
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE EAST OF IGOR STRENGTHENS BETWEEN IT AND A
STRONG SUBTROPICAL HIGH FORECAST OT BE NEAR 30N/40W BY THAT TIME.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND
IS CLOSE TO THE MIDDLE OF THE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED MODEL GUIDANCE. BY
120 HOURS...IGOR IS EXPECTED TO BE A VERY LARGE HURRICANE AND BE
CLOSE ENOUGH TO BERMUDA TO BRING ADVERSE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THAT
ISLAND.

IGOR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR...WARM SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF NEAR 29C...AND MAINTAIN A
VERY FAVORABLE OUTFLOW PATTERN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS A
RESULT...THERE MAY BE SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT
12-24 HOURS...ESPECIALLY LATER TONIGHT DURING THE CONVECTIVE
MAXIMUM PERIOD. HOWEVER...OWING TO THE LARGE SIZE OF IGOR...ITS
STRONG CATEGORY 4 INTENSITY...AND ITS RELATIVELY SLOW FORWARD
MOTION OF LESS THAN 10 KT...SOME COLD UPWELLING MAY OCCUR BENEATH
THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE AND CAUSE SOME WEAKENING OF THE CYCLONE
DESPITE THE AFOREMENTIONED FAVORABLE CONDITIONS. EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLES ARE ALSO A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY. REGARDLESS...
IGOR IS STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE HIGHER
THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS SIMILAR TO A BLEND OF THE
SHIPS-LGEM INTENSITY MODELS THROUGH 72 HOURS. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH
THE SHIPS GUIDANCE AT FOUR AND FIVE DAYS MAY BE ADVERSELY AFFECTED
BY THE REPRESENTATION OF THE WARM CORE OF THE HURRICANE IN THE GFS
MODEL. IN ADDITION...ALL THE GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST A VERY
FAVORABLE OUTFLOW PATTERN THROUGH DAY FIVE...AND SO THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS HELD A LITTLE ABOVE THE GUIDANCE NEAR THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 14/2100Z 18.8N 53.1W 125 KT
12HR VT 15/0600Z 19.5N 54.3W 130 KT
24HR VT 15/1800Z 20.5N 55.6W 125 KT
36HR VT 16/0600Z 21.5N 57.2W 125 KT
48HR VT 16/1800Z 22.6N 58.8W 120 KT
72HR VT 17/1800Z 25.4N 62.1W 115 KT
96HR VT 18/1800Z 28.6N 64.5W 110 KT
120HR VT 19/1800Z 33.0N 65.5W 100 KT

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[cycloneye]

000
WTNT31 KNHC 150243
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IGOR ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
1100 PM AST TUE SEP 14 2010

...IGOR CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.0N 53.9W
ABOUT 605 MI...975 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 1140 MI...1835 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...925 MB...27.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IGOR WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 53.9 WEST. IGOR IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 155 MPH...250
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IGOR IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH
IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT SOME WEAKENING COULD
OCCUR ON THURSDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 225
MILES...360 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 925 MB...27.32 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IGOR ARE AFFECTING THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS...AND WILL REACH PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS
OVERNIGHT AND ON WEDNESDAY. THE SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THESE SWELLS
ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BERG