ATL: IGOR - Advisories

[cycloneye]

000
WTNT41 KNHC 150257
TCDAT1
HURRICANE IGOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 28
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
1100 PM AST TUE SEP 14 2010

CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS HAVE CONTINUED TO COOL...AND A SOLID WHITE
RING ON THE DVORAK ENHANCEMENT HAS INTERMITTENTLY WRAPPED ENTIRELY
AROUND THE EYE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. DVORAK T-NUMBERS WERE UP
TO T7.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB AT 0000 UTC...AND T6.5 AND T7.0 FROM TWO
FORMS OF THE UW-CIMSS ADT. SINCE THE WHITE RING DOES NOT ENTIRELY
WRAP AROUND THE EYE AT THIS TIME...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING
RAISED TO 135 KT. IGOR REMAINS OVER WARM WATERS AND IS IN AN
ENVIRONMENT OF LOW VERTICAL SHEAR...SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
MAINTAINS THIS INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. GRADUAL
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED THEREAFTER WHEN IT IS LIKELY THAT INTERNAL
DYNAMICS...WHICH ARE NOT WELL UNDERSTOOD...WILL INFLUENCE THE
INTENSITY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS OF
THE STATISTICAL AND DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE THROUGH DAY 4 BUT IS A
LITTLE HIGHER THAN THAT GUIDANCE AT DAY 5 TO MAINTAIN CONTINUITY
WITH THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.

IGOR IS MOVING AT 295/8. THE HURRICANE HAS REACHED THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...AND IT SHOULD MAKE A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST SOON. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
FOR THE FIRST 3-4 DAYS BUT THEN SHOWS MORE DIVERGENCE ON DAY 5 WITH
THE GFDL WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA AND THE ECMWF WELL TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES VERY CLOSE TO THE
CONSENSUS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND ENDED UP BEING SIMILAR TO
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

REGARDLESS OF WHERE IGOR ENDS UP IN 5 DAYS...THE LARGE WIND FIELD OF
THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY CLOSE TO OR NEAR BERMUDA
WITHIN THE NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS. INTERESTS ON BERMUDA SHOULD CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IGOR.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/0300Z 19.0N 53.9W 135 KT
12HR VT 15/1200Z 19.8N 55.0W 135 KT
24HR VT 16/0000Z 20.7N 56.4W 130 KT
36HR VT 16/1200Z 21.7N 58.0W 125 KT
48HR VT 17/0000Z 22.8N 59.6W 125 KT
72HR VT 18/0000Z 25.5N 63.0W 115 KT
96HR VT 19/0000Z 29.0N 65.0W 105 KT
120HR VT 20/0000Z 33.5N 65.5W 95 KT

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[Brent]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IGOR ADVISORY NUMBER 29
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
500 AM AST WED SEP 15 2010

...IGOR WEAKENS A LITTLE BUT REMAINS A LARGE AND POWERFUL
HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.5N 54.5W
ABOUT 570 MI...915 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 1090 MI...1755 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...935 MB...27.61 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IGOR WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 54.5 WEST. IGOR IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. A GENERALLY
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 145 MPH...230 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IGOR IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE ANTICIPATED
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 225
MILES...360 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 935 MB...27.61 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IGOR ARE AFFECTING THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS...AND WILL REACH PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS
TODAY. THE SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

HURRICANE IGOR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
0900 UTC WED SEP 15 2010

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 54.5W AT 15/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 935 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 155 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT....... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT.......195NE 150SE 130SW 160NW.
12 FT SEAS..450NE 390SE 330SW 390NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 54.5W AT 15/0900Z
AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 54.1W

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 20.2N 55.6W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 40SE 35SW 45NW.
50 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...210NE 150SE 135SW 165NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 21.1N 57.0W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 45SE 35SW 45NW.
50 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 90NW.
34 KT...210NE 165SE 135SW 165NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 21.9N 58.4W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 45SE 40SW 45NW.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT...210NE 165SE 135SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 22.9N 60.2W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
50 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT...225NE 180SE 150SW 195NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 25.8N 63.3W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 100NW.
34 KT...225NE 195SE 165SW 195NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 29.5N 65.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 34.0N 64.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.5N 54.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

HURRICANE IGOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 29
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
500 AM AST WED SEP 15 2010

IGOR HAS WEAKENED A LITTLE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED OVER
THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE AND THE EYE HAS COOLED. IN ADDITION...AN
0352 UTC TRMM OVERPASS SHOWED THAT THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE
EYEWALL HAS ERODED. BASED ON THIS DEGRADED APPEARANCE AND A BLEND
OF SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES...THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS
LOWERED TO 125 KT. IGOR REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
STRENGTHENING...SO INTERNAL DYNAMICS WILL LIKELY BE THE DOMINANT
FACTOR FOR THE FUTURE INTENSITY OF IGOR FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THESE SMALL SCALE DYNAMICS...WHICH ARE NOT WELL
UNDERSTOOD...USUALLY CAUSE FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY...AND THAT IS
REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. SOUTHERLY WIND SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN 3 TO 4 DAYS...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE SOME
WEAKENING BY THAT TIME.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/8...AND THE EYE OF IGOR IS ON THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST TRACK. A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST MOTION IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE HURRICANE MOVES ALONG
THE SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. BEYOND THAT TIME...A
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST AS IGOR ROUNDS THE RIDGE AND MOVES INTO
A PRONOUNCED WEAKNESS. IN GENERAL...THE NEW TRACK GUIDANCE HAS
SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE EAST AT DAYS 4 AND 5...AND THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS NUDGED ONLY SLIGHTLY IN THAT DIRECTION.

REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK OF IGOR...THE LARGE WIND FIELD OF
THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY CLOSE TO OR NEAR BERMUDA
WITHIN THE NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS. INTERESTS ON BERMUDA SHOULD CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IGOR.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/0900Z 19.5N 54.5W 125 KT
12HR VT 15/1800Z 20.2N 55.6W 130 KT
24HR VT 16/0600Z 21.1N 57.0W 130 KT
36HR VT 16/1800Z 21.9N 58.4W 125 KT
48HR VT 17/0600Z 22.9N 60.2W 120 KT
72HR VT 18/0600Z 25.8N 63.3W 110 KT
96HR VT 19/0600Z 29.5N 65.0W 100 KT
120HR VT 20/0600Z 34.0N 64.5W 90 KT

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

[HURAKAN]

665
WTNT31 KNHC 151437
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IGOR ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
1100 AM AST WED SEP 15 2010

...IGOR WEAKENS A LITTLE FURTHER...STILL A LARGE AND POWERFUL
HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.8N 55.0W
ABOUT 540 MI...870 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 1055 MI...1700 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH...215 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...942 MB...27.82 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IGOR WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 55.0 WEST. IGOR IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. A GENERAL MOTION
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 135 MPH...215
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IGOR IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN
STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT OR TWO...BUT IGOR IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN A DANGEROUS HURRICANE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 225
MILES...360 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 942 MB...27.82 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IGOR WILL AFFECT THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TODAY AND THURSDAY.
THE SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SWELLS ASSOCIATED
WITH IGOR WILL ALSO REACH THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND CONTINUE OVER THE WEEKEND. THESE SWELLS ARE
LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

[cycloneye]

000
WTNT41 KNHC 152035
TCDAT1
HURRICANE IGOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 31
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
500 PM AST WED SEP 15 2010

INFRARED SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATE THAT IGOR IS MAINTAINING ITS
CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION...WITH INNER CORE CONVECTION MORE VIGOROUS
THAN EARLIER. HOWEVER...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE
EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE IGOR IS EXPERIENCING IS STILL OCCURRING.
A DISTINCT BUT PARTIAL INNER EYEWALL IS EVIDENT AND AN OUTER
EYEWALL NOW AT 30-40 NM RADIUS SEEMS TO BE GRADUALLY CONTRACTING.
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS ARE AT 5.5 AND 6.0 FROM SAB AND
TAFB...RESPECTIVELY...WHILE THE LATEST 3-HOURLY AVERAGED ADT VALUE
IS CLOSE TO 6.0. THESE ESTIMATES ARE THE BASIS FOR KEEPING THE
INITIAL INTENSITY AT 115 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THERE ARE NO OBVIOUS
LARGE-SCALE FACTORS THAT COULD CAUSE A SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING OF
IGOR DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. ANY CHANGES IN INTENSITY DURING THIS
TIME ARE MOST LIKELY TO BE RELATED TO INNER CORE DYNAMICS FOR WHICH
PREDICTABILITY IS LOW. IN 3-4 DAYS...GLOBAL DYNAMICAL MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW AN INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY SHEAR...AND IGOR SHOULD
REACH MARGINAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE END OF THE
PERIOD. THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE RESPONDS TO THESE
FACTORS BY SHOWING A GRADUAL WEAKENING BEYOND 72 HOURS. THE
OFFICIAL NHC INTENSITY IS BASICALLY UNCHANGED...WITH THE FORECAST
STILL INDICATING SOME POTENTIAL FOR RE-INTENSIFICATION IN THE SHORT
TERM AFTER THE CURRENT EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE ENDS.

THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE MOTION...AND THE LATEST ESTIMATE
IS 295/07. IGOR IS MOVING AROUND THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC AND IS GRADUALLY
ENTERING A PRONOUNCED WEAKNESS IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS
SYNOPTIC PATTERN SHOULD STEER IGOR ON A NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD COURSE DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. DURING THIS
TIME...SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE WEAKNESS IN THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC SHOULD HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON IGOR. HOWEVER...
DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN STATES/CANADIAN
MARITIMES IN ABOUT 4-5 DAYS SHOULD BEGIN TO INDUCE RECURVATURE. THE
GFS/HWRF/GFDL HAVE BEEN INDICATING A MORE ROBUST SHORTWAVE FEATURE
AND A SHARPER RECURVATURE DURING THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS. ON THE
OTHER HAND...THE UKMET...ECMWF...AND THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN HAVE
HAD A WEAKER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE THAT COULD DELAY
RECURVATURE AND ALLOW FOR A MORE WESTWARD TRACK. THE OFFICIAL NHC
TRACK FORECAST REMAINS ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE AND IS VERY NEAR THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...CONTINUING TO SHOW IGOR PASSING CLOSE TO
BERMUDA IN ABOUT 4 DAYS.




FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/2100Z 20.1N 55.6W 115 KT
12HR VT 16/0600Z 20.6N 56.7W 110 KT
24HR VT 16/1800Z 21.4N 58.2W 115 KT
36HR VT 17/0600Z 22.4N 59.8W 120 KT
48HR VT 17/1800Z 23.5N 61.5W 120 KT
72HR VT 18/1800Z 26.5N 64.0W 105 KT
96HR VT 19/1800Z 31.0N 65.0W 95 KT
120HR VT 20/1800Z 36.0N 61.5W 80 KT

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

[cycloneye]

000
WTNT41 KNHC 160242
TCDAT1
HURRICANE IGOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 32
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
1100 PM AST WED SEP 15 2010

BASED ON RECENT MICROWAVE DATA...IGOR APPEARS TO BE COMPLETING AN
EYEWALL REPLACEMENT. IN ADDITION...INFRARED GEOSTATIONARY
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE INNER CORE CONVECTION DIMINISHING WITH
AN OUTER RING OF CONVECTION BECOMING MORE PROMINENT. DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB REMAIN AT T6.0/6.5 AND HAVE FALLEN TO T5.0/5.5
FROM SAB...AND THE LATEST ADT ESTIMATE IS T6.3. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS HELD AT 115 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. IGOR IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW SHEAR FOR THE NEXT 60 HOURS OR
SO...AND LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED DURING THAT TIME.
FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE STILL POSSIBLE HOWEVER...ESPECIALLY
IF THE NEW OUTER EYEWALL CONTRACTS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
BY DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...SOUTHERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND
SHOULD INDUCE SOME WEAKENING. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THAT TIME...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL
SHOW WEAKENING TO CATEGORY 1 OR 2 STRENGTH BY DAYS 4 AND 5.

IGOR IS MOVING 295 DEGREES AT 8 KT. THE HURRICANE IS LOCATED NEAR
THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC AND IS BEING INCREASINGLY INFLUENCED BY A LARGE BUT FLAT
MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH NEAR THE U.S. EAST COAST. SINCE THE
TROUGH IS NOT THAT SHARP...IGOR IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT
MOTION FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO. IT SHOULD THEN BEGIN TO TURN
MORE SHARPLY ON DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...WITH ITS CENTER PASSING NEAR
BERMUDA IN ABOUT 96 HOURS. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED
BUT DOES SHOW SOME SPEED DIFFERENCES BY DAY 5. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS JUST A LITTLE TO THE WEST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS TVCN
SINCE THE USUALLY-RELIABLE ECMWF LIES ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 16/0300Z 20.2N 56.5W 115 KT
12HR VT 16/1200Z 20.8N 57.6W 115 KT
24HR VT 17/0000Z 21.7N 59.2W 115 KT
36HR VT 17/1200Z 22.6N 60.8W 115 KT
48HR VT 18/0000Z 24.0N 62.6W 115 KT
72HR VT 19/0000Z 27.5N 65.0W 105 KT
96HR VT 20/0000Z 31.5N 65.0W 95 KT
120HR VT 21/0000Z 36.5N 60.5W 80 KT

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[Crostorm]

000
WTNT31 KNHC 160241
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IGOR ADVISORY NUMBER 32
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
1100 PM AST WED SEP 15 2010

...IGOR STILL AT CATEGORY 4 STRENGTH...POSES A SIGNIFICANT RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST OVER THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.2N 56.5W
ABOUT 450 MI...730 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 980 MI...1580 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH...215 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...942 MB...27.82 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IGOR.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE IGOR WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 56.5 WEST. IGOR IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED LATER
ON FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. IGOR IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT IGOR IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN A LARGE AND DANGEROUS HURRICANE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 240
MILES...390 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 942 MB...27.82 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IGOR WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS OVERNIGHT AND
ON THURSDAY. THE SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH PORTIONS OF THE
BAHAMAS OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SWELLS WILL ALSO REACH THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AND CONTINUE OVER THE WEEKEND. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY
TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[abajan]

000
WTNT31 KNHC 160847
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IGOR ADVISORY NUMBER 33
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
500 AM AST THU SEP 16 2010

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS IGOR INTENSIFIES AGAIN...EXPECTED TO BE A
SIGNIFICANT HURRICANE FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.5N 56.8W
ABOUT 440 MI...710 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 955 MI...1535 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...929 MB...27.43 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IGOR.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IGOR WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 56.8 WEST. IGOR IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 145 MPH...230 KM/HR
...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IGOR IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY
FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE.
FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...BUT IGOR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A LARGE AND POWERFUL
HURRICANE.

IGOR IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275 MILES...445 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 929 MB...27.43 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IGOR WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TODAY. THE
SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS LATER TODAY
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SWELLS WILL ALSO REACH THE
EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES LATER TODAY AND FRIDAY AND CONTINUE
OVER THE WEEKEND. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR
LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

000
WTNT41 KNHC 160855
TCDAT1
HURRICANE IGOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 33
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
500 AM AST THU SEP 16 2010

MICROWAVE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT THE EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT WITH IGOR IS COMPLETE. THE NEW EYEWALL APPEARS TO BE
CONSOLIDATING AT A RADIUS OF ABOUT 30-35 N MI AND IS PRODUCING
RATHER DEEP CONVECTION...SUGGESTING THE INTENSITY IS INCREASING
AGAIN. A BLEND OF THE SATELLITE ESTIMATES GIVES AN INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 125 KT.

A LARGE-SCALE ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT SHEAR AND WARM WATER IS FAVORABLE
FOR THE MAINTENANCE OF AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THE EXACT INTENSITY OF IGOR WILL BE PRIMARILY
DICTATED BY EYEWALL CYCLES...WHICH ARE WELL BEYOND OUR FORECAST
ABILITIES. THE MAJORITY OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SLOW
WEAKENING IS THE MOST LIKELY SOLUTION...AND THE NHC FORECAST REFLECT
THIS. HOWEVER...IT IS MORE IMPORTANT TO RECOGNIZE THAT ALL OF THE
GUIDANCE...AND THE NHC FORECAST...KEEPS IGOR AS A LARGE AND
DANGEROUS HURRICANE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS AN UNSTEADY 300/6. IGOR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
SLOWLY AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC. WEAK TROUGHING ALONG ABOUT 70W SHOULD RECURVE
THE CYCLONE IN 3 OR 4 DAYS. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IN THE MODELS IS
HOW QUICKLY IGOR ACCELERATES TO THE NORTHEAST IN THE MID-LATITUDES.
SINCE THE TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS RATHER FLAT...
THERE HAS BEEN A TREND IN THE MODELS TO SHOW WEAKER FLOW NEAR
IGOR...AND CONSEQUENTLY DELAY THE INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BIT SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...
ESPECIALLY AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. WITH REGARDS TO HOW CLOSE
IGOR COMES TO BERMUDA...THE ECMWF IS NOW THE MOST EASTERN MODEL
AFTER BEING THE WESTERNMOST YESTERDAY. THIS APPEARS TO BE DUE TO
THAT MODEL SHOWING A SLIGHTLY WEAKER RIDGE TODAY...WHICH ALLOWS
IGOR TO GAIN A LITTLE MORE LATITUDE EARLY ON AND EVENTUALLY PASS A
LITTLE FARTHER EAST OF BERMUDA. HOWEVER...ALL OF THE GUIDANCE IS
WELL CLUSTERED ON A TRACK CLOSE TO THAT ISLAND...AND LITTLE CHANGE
HAS BEEN MADE TO THE OFFICIAL TRACK NEAR BERMUDA. SINCE THIS IS
SUCH A LARGE HURRICANE...SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED ON
BERMUDA...BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO TELL HOW CLOSE THE CORE OF THE
HURRICANE...AND THE STRONGEST WINDS...WILL COME TO THAT ISLAND.

SO FAR...NOAA BUOY 41044 HAS REPORTED A PEAK 1-MINUTE WIND OF 45
KT...GUSTING TO 56 KT...ALONG WITH A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 995
MB...AND A SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT OF 29 FT. HOWEVER...THE WORST
IS YET TO COME FOR THAT STATION...AS IGOR WILL MOVE VERY CLOSE TO
THE BUOY TONIGHT.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 16/0900Z 20.5N 56.8W 125 KT
12HR VT 16/1800Z 21.1N 57.8W 125 KT
24HR VT 17/0600Z 22.0N 59.4W 125 KT
36HR VT 17/1800Z 23.2N 61.1W 120 KT
48HR VT 18/0600Z 24.7N 62.7W 120 KT
72HR VT 19/0600Z 28.0N 65.0W 110 KT
96HR VT 20/0600Z 32.5N 64.5W 95 KT
120HR VT 21/0600Z 37.5N 59.0W 80 KT

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[cycloneye]

000
WTNT41 KNHC 162041
TCDAT1
HURRICANE IGOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 35
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
500 PM AST THU SEP 16 2010

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REACHED THE CENTER OF
IGOR AROUND 1600 UTC. THE HURRICANE HUNTERS MEASURED A MINIMUM
PRESSURE OF 940 MB AND MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL AND SFMR WINDS OF 130
AND 98 KT...RESPECTIVELY. SINCE THAT TIME..THE CLOUD PATTERN
ASSOCIATED WITH IGOR HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION...AND
DVORAK T-NUMBERS REMAIN AT 5.5 FROM SAB AND TAFB. BASED UPON THE
AIRCRAFT DATA AND THE LOWER SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 110 KT. THE EXTENSION OF AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PASSING NORTH OF IGOR IS STILL PRODUCING ABOUT
15 KT OF WESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE CYCLONE...ACCORDING TO THE LATEST
UW-CIMSS ANALYSES. THE SHIPS MODEL OUTPUT SHOWS A REDUCTION IN THE
SHEAR WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS THIS FEATURE MOVES AWAY...WHICH
COULD ALLOW AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME RE-INTENSIFICATION IN THE
SHORT-TERM. THE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT IGOR WILL BE MOVING INTO AN
ENVIRONMENT OF GRADUALLY INCREASING SOUTHERLY TO SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IN ABOUT TWO DAYS...AND OVER COOLER WATERS BY
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO
FACTORS SHOULD RESULT IN A SLOW WEAKENING BEYOND 48 HOURS...AND THE
NHC OFFICIAL FORECAST REFLECTS THIS. BY DAY 5...GLOBAL MODELS
INDICATE THAT IGOR WILL BE AT LEAST BEGINNING TO UNDERGO
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.

IGOR CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN ABOUT THE SAME MOTION...310/7. THE
REASONING FOR THE TRACK FORECAST IS UNCHANGED. THE HURRICANE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD WITH
SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AROUND THE WESTERN EXTENT OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DURING THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. BEYOND 72 HOURS...
IGOR SHOULD BEGIN ACCELERATING WHILE TURNING NORTH AND THEN
NORTHEAST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST U.S. AND CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED TO THE LEFT THIS CYCLE APPARENTLY
DUE TO TIMING DIFFERENCES ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFORMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE OFFICIAL NHC TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED
WESTWARD...FOLLOWING THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...AND LIES IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 16/2100Z 21.7N 58.1W 110 KT
12HR VT 17/0600Z 22.4N 59.2W 110 KT
24HR VT 17/1800Z 23.5N 61.0W 115 KT
36HR VT 18/0600Z 24.9N 62.7W 115 KT
48HR VT 18/1800Z 26.5N 64.0W 110 KT
72HR VT 19/1800Z 30.5N 65.5W 100 KT
96HR VT 20/1800Z 35.5N 62.5W 90 KT
120HR VT 21/1800Z 42.0N 53.0W 70 KT

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

[cycloneye]

000
WTNT41 KNHC 170259
TCDAT1
HURRICANE IGOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 36
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
1100 PM AST THU SEP 16 2010

THE CLOUD PATTERN OF IGOR HAS CHANGED LITTLE THIS EVENING. DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS FROM SAB AND TAFB ARE 5.5 AND 6.0...
RESPECTIVELY. THIS SUPPORTS MAINTAINING AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF
110 KT. THE EYE OF IGOR IS PASSING VERY NEAR NOAA BUOY 41044.
THROUGH 0200 UTC...THE 5-METER HIGH ANEMOMETER ON THE BUOY HAS
REPORTED PEAK 1-MINUTE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 69 KT WITH A GUST TO 91
KT. A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 940.3 MB WAS RECORDED AT 0050 UTC WITH
WINDS AROUND 60 KT. THIS SUGGESTS THAT THE MINIMUM PRESSURE IS
AROUND 935 MB. DUE TO THE LARGE SIZE AND RELATIVELY SLOW MOTION OF
THE HURRICANE...THE BUOY HAS NOW REPORTED TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS FOR 21 CONSECUTIVE HOURS.

IGOR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER WARM WATER AND IN A FAVORABLE
UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WITH SHEAR LESS THAN 15 KT DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO. SOME RE-STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THIS
TIME...AND THE SHORT-TERM INTENSITY WILL LIKELY BE DICTATED BY
EYEWALL CYCLES THAT ARE DIFFICULT TO PREDICT. AFTER 48 HOURS...
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY INCREASE AND IGOR
WILL BE MOVING OVER COOLER SSTS IN 4-5 DAYS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
GRADUAL WEAKENING...HOWEVER IGOR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A LARGE AND
POWERFUL HURRICANE FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS. BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD IGOR WILL BE UNDERGOING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.

IGOR HAS BEEN MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OR 310 DEGREES AT 7 KT. THE
HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO MOVE AROUND THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. THEREAFTER...IGOR
WILL ACCELERATE AND TURN NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHEAST UNITED
STATES IN A FEW DAYS. THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS CHANGED LITTLE AND
NEITHER HAS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...WHICH LIES NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 17/0300Z 22.0N 58.7W 110 KT
12HR VT 17/1200Z 23.0N 60.0W 115 KT
24HR VT 18/0000Z 24.2N 61.7W 115 KT
36HR VT 18/1200Z 25.7N 63.3W 115 KT
48HR VT 19/0000Z 27.3N 64.4W 110 KT
72HR VT 20/0000Z 31.7N 65.1W 100 KT
96HR VT 21/0000Z 37.5N 60.0W 85 KT
120HR VT 22/0000Z 45.5N 47.0W 70 KT

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[Brent]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IGOR INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 36A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
200 AM AST FRI SEP 17 2010

...IGOR CONTINUES MOVING NORTHWEST...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.2N 59.2W
ABOUT 375 MI...600 KM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 780 MI...1255 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...935 MB...27.61 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE IGOR WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 22.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.2 WEST. IGOR IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION
WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE WILL
BE APPROACHING BERMUDA ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IGOR IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT IGOR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A
POWERFUL HURRICANE.

IGOR IS A VERY LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290 MILES...465 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 935 MB...27.61 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN BERMUDA BY LATE
SATURDAY...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...
PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...HISPANIOLA...AND PORTIONS OF THE
BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE SWELLS WILL ALSO
CAUSE DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS IN BERMUDA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...WHICH WILL WORSEN AS IGOR APPROACHES. SWELLS WILL CONTINUE
TO AFFECT THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BRENNAN

[cycloneye]

000
WTNT31 KNHC 171132
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IGOR INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 37A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
800 AM AST FRI SEP 17 2010

...LARGE IGOR CONTINUES MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.7N 59.8W
ABOUT 730 MI...1180 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IGOR WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 22.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.8 WEST. IGOR IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION
WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
SO FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE WILL BE APPROACHING BERMUDA ON
SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 120 MPH...195 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. IGOR IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-
SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

IGOR IS A VERY LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290 MILES...465 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 940 MB...27.76 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN BERMUDA BY LATE
SATURDAY...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...
PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...HISPANIOLA...AND PORTIONS OF THE
BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE SWELLS WILL ALSO
CAUSE DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS IN BERMUDA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...WHICH WILL WORSEN AS IGOR APPROACHES. SWELLS WILL CONTINUE
TO AFFECT THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENTS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/PASCH

[cycloneye]

000
WTNT31 KNHC 171437
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IGOR ADVISORY NUMBER 38
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
1100 AM AST FRI SEP 17 2010

...HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE TO REACH IGOR IN A COUPLE OF HOURS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.1N 60.1W
ABOUT 695 MI...1120 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB...27.91 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IGOR WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 23.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.1 WEST. IGOR IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION
WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
SO FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE WILL BE APPROACHING BERMUDA ON
SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 120 MPH...195 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IGOR IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290
MILES...465 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 945 MB...27.91 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN BERMUDA BY LATE
SATURDAY...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...
PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...HISPANIOLA...AND PORTIONS OF THE
BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE SWELLS WILL ALSO
CAUSE DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS IN BERMUDA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...WHICH WILL WORSEN AS IGOR APPROACHES. SWELLS WILL CONTINUE
TO AFFECT THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENTS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN


WTNT41 KNHC 171512
TCDAT1
HURRICANE IGOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 38...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
1100 AM AST FRI SEP 17 2010

CORRECT SAB SATELLITE CLASSIFICATION

THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN OF IGOR HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...ALTHOUGH DVORAK CI NUMBERS HAVE
DECREASED TO 5.5 FROM SAB AND TAFB...RESPECTIVELY. BASED UPON THESE
DATA...THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS LOWERED TO 105 KT. AN 0915 UTC
SSMIS OVERPASS SHOWED THE EXISTENCE OF A NEW OUTER WIND MAXIMUM AT
ABOUT 90 NMI RADIUS...WITH AN INNER EYEWALL PARTIALLY BROKEN TO THE
WEST. INNER CORE DYNAMICS ASIDE...THERE IS STILL AN OPPORTUNITY
FOR RE-INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WHILE IGOR IS
LOCATED IN A LIGHT SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND MOVING OVER WARM WATERS.
GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST A GRADUAL INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE CYCLONE AFTER ABOUT 48 HOURS AND
WATERS GRADUALLY BECOME COOLER AFTER THAT. BOTH OF THESE FACTORS
SUGGEST A SLOW WEAKENING OF IGOR BEGINNING AFTER ABOUT TWO
DAYS...AND THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST IS ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE.
THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SHOULD BE
COMPLETED BETWEEN 96 AND 120 HOURS.

IGOR IS MAINTAINING A FAIRLY STEADY MOTION OF 305/08. THE STEERING
FLOW AROUND THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SHOULD GUIDE
IGOR ON A NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD COURSE DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AFTER THAT...THE APPROACH OF A VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN
THE HURRICANE NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD WITH A SUBSTANTIAL
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE OFFICIAL NHC TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE
TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...EXCEPT FOR BEING SOMEWHAT SLOWER AT
96 AND 120 HOURS IN LINE WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 17/1500Z 23.1N 60.1W 105 KT
12HR VT 18/0000Z 24.0N 61.5W 105 KT
24HR VT 18/1200Z 25.4N 63.2W 105 KT
36HR VT 19/0000Z 27.0N 64.5W 100 KT
48HR VT 19/1200Z 28.8N 65.1W 100 KT
72HR VT 20/1200Z 34.0N 63.5W 90 KT
96HR VT 21/1200Z 41.0N 55.0W 75 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120HR VT 22/1200Z 51.0N 44.5W 60 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

[cycloneye]

1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IGOR INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 38A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
200 PM AST FRI SEP 17 2010

...HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE FINDS IGOR SLIGHTLY WEAKER...HURRICANE
WARNING ISSUED FOR BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.4N 60.7W
ABOUT 665 MI...1070 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...946 MB...27.93 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR
BERMUDA AT 2 PM AST...1800 UTC.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36
HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IGOR WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 23.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.7 WEST. IGOR IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION
WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
SO...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE WILL BE APPROACHING BERMUDA ON
SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 115 MPH...185
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IGOR IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN
STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290
MILES...465 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 946 MB...27.93 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN BERMUDA BY LATE
SATURDAY...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...
PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...HISPANIOLA...AND PORTIONS OF THE
BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE SWELLS WILL ALSO
CAUSE DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS IN BERMUDA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...WHICH WILL WORSEN AS IGOR APPROACHES. SWELLS WILL CONTINUE
TO AFFECT THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENTS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

[cycloneye]

000
WTNT31 KNHC 172042
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IGOR ADVISORY NUMBER 39
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
500 PM AST FRI SEP 17 2010

...HURRICANE IGOR HEADING NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.7N 61.1W
ABOUT 635 MI...1025 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB...27.96 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36
HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IGOR WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 23.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.1 WEST. IGOR IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION
WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST LATE
FRIDAY OR EARLY SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
THE HURRICANE WILL BE APPROACHING BERMUDA ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 105 MPH...165
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IGOR IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL
WEAKENING.

IGOR IS AN UNUSUALLY LARGE HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 345 MILES...555 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 947 MB...27.96 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN BERMUDA BY LATE
SATURDAY...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.

RAINFALL...IGOR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 5 TO 8 INCHES OVER BERMUDA.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...
PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...HISPANIOLA...AND PORTIONS OF THE
BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE SWELLS WILL ALSO
CAUSE DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS IN BERMUDA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...WHICH WILL WORSEN AS IGOR APPROACHES. SWELLS WILL CONTINUE
TO AFFECT THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENTS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN





KNHC 172040
TCDAT1
HURRICANE IGOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 39
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
500 PM AST FRI SEP 17 2010

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING IGOR
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON MEASURED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 946 MB. THE
HURRICANE HUNTER ALSO MEASURED MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL AND SFMR WINDS
OF 102 AND 79 KT...RESPECTIVELY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED
TO 90 KT BASED UPON THE AIRCRAFT OBSERVATIONS. DATA FROM THE PLANE
ALSO INDICATED A RATHER BROAD WIND FIELD...WITH THE PRESENCE OF A
DOUBLE WIND MAXIMA. SINCE THE PLANE DEPARTED...THE CLOUD PATTERN OF
IGOR HAS INCREASED IN ORGANIZATION...WITH COLDER CLOUD TOPS
DEVELOPING WITHIN THE INNER CORE AND THE EYE BECOMING VISIBLE
AGAIN. INNER CORE DYNAMICS NOTWITHSTANDING...THERE APPEARS TO BE A
FINAL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR RE-INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO AS IGOR REMAINS IN A LIGHT SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND MOVES
OVER WARM WATERS. AFTER ABOUT 36 HOURS...A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND COOLER WATERS ALONG THE
FORECAST TRACK SHOULD PROMOTE A WEAKENING OF IGOR. THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD A BIT IN THE SHORT
TERM BASED UPON CURRENT TRENDS BUT IS NEARLY THE SAME LATER IN THE
PERIOD. IN AGREEMENT WITH THE GUIDANCE...IGOR IS FORECAST TO BECOME
A LARGE AND STRONG EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE FAR NORTH
ATLANTIC BEYOND 96 HOURS.

IGOR APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS
305/09. THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS NOT CHANGED. IGOR
SHOULD BE STEERED NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND
THE WESTERN SIDE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
AFTER THAT...A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN U.S. SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN THE HURRICANE NORTHWARD IN
THE VICINITY OF BERMUDA...AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD WITH A SUBSTANTIAL
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE OFFICIAL NHC TRACK FORECAST IS VERY
CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND REMAINS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED BASED UPON DATA FROM THE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND AN EARLIER ASCAT OVERPASS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 17/2100Z 23.7N 61.1W 90 KT
12HR VT 18/0600Z 24.8N 62.4W 95 KT
24HR VT 18/1800Z 26.2N 64.0W 100 KT
36HR VT 19/0600Z 27.9N 64.9W 95 KT
48HR VT 19/1800Z 30.0N 65.1W 90 KT
72HR VT 20/1800Z 35.5N 62.0W 85 KT
96HR VT 21/1800Z 43.5N 52.5W 75 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120HR VT 22/1800Z 52.0N 44.0W 65 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

[cycloneye]

000
WTNT31 KNHC 172349
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IGOR INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 39A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
800 PM AST FRI SEP 17 2010

...LARGE HURRICANE IGOR MARCHING STEADILY NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.2N 61.3W
ABOUT 600 MI...965 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB...27.96 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IGOR WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 24.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.3 WEST. IGOR IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION
WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST LATE
SATURDAY OR EARLY SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
THE HURRICANE WILL BE APPROACHING BERMUDA BY LATE SUNDAY. HOWEVER...
ADVERSE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT BERMUDA AS EARLY AS
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 105 MPH...165
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IGOR IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL WEAKENING.

IGOR IS A PARTICULARLY LARGE HURRICANE. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-
STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 345 MILES...555 KM. DURING
THE PAST HOUR...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS NEAR 40 MPH WERE
REPORTED AT NOAA BUOY 41049 LOCATED 245 MI...395 KM...NORTHWEST OF
THE CENTER OF IGOR...AND ALSO AT NOAA BUOY 41044 LOCATED THE SAME
DISTANCE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 947 MB...27.96 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN BERMUDA BY LATE
SATURDAY...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.

RAINFALL...IGOR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 5 TO 8 INCHES OVER BERMUDA.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING ON BERMUDA. THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
SOUTHERN COAST.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...
PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...HISPANIOLA...AND PORTIONS OF THE
BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE SWELLS WILL ALSO
CAUSE DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS IN BERMUDA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...WHICH WILL WORSEN AS IGOR APPROACHES. SWELLS WILL CONTINUE
TO AFFECT THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENTS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[cycloneye]

000
WTNT31 KNHC 180234
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IGOR ADVISORY NUMBER 40
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
1100 PM AST FRI SEP 17 2010

...LARGE HURRICANE IGOR GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED AGAIN AS IT
CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.6N 62.0W
ABOUT 560 MI...900 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB...27.96 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IGOR WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 24.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.0 WEST. IGOR IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST LATE SATURDAY...AND A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH ON SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF LARGE
HURRICANE IGOR WILL BE APPROACHING BERMUDA BY LATE SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...ADVERSE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT BERMUDA
AS EARLY AS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IGOR IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY...AND IGOR COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE AGAIN. GRADUAL
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY EARLY SUNDAY.

IGOR IS A PARTICULARLY LARGE HURRICANE. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-
STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 345 MILES...555 KM. DURING
THE PAST HOUR...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...
WERE REPORTED AT NOAA BUOY 41049 LOCATED ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM...
NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER OF IGOR.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 947 MB...27.96 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN BERMUDA BY LATE
SATURDAY...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.

RAINFALL...IGOR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 5 TO 8 INCHES OVER BERMUDA.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING ON BERMUDA. THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES...ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE SOUTHERN COAST.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...
PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...HISPANIOLA...AND PORTIONS OF THE
BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE SWELLS WILL ALSO
CAUSE DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS IN BERMUDA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...WHICH WILL WORSEN AS IGOR APPROACHES. SWELLS WILL CONTINUE
TO AFFECT THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENTS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[Brent]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IGOR INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 40A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
200 AM AST SAT SEP 18 2010

...LARGE HURRICANE IGOR CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.9N 62.4W
ABOUT 530 MI...855 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...942 MB...27.82 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IGOR WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 24.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.4 WEST. IGOR IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST LATE SATURDAY...AND A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH ON SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF LARGE
HURRICANE IGOR WILL BE APPROACHING BERMUDA BY LATE SUNDAY. HOWEVER
...ADVERSE WEATHER CONDITIONS COULD BEGIN TO AFFECT BERMUDA SATURDAY
EVENING OR SATURDAY NIGHT.

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. IGOR IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS
POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY...AND IGOR COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE
AGAIN. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY EARLY SUNDAY.

IGOR IS A VERY LARGE HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD
UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 345 MILES...555 KM. NOAA BUOY
41049...LOCATED ABOUT 185 MILES...295 KM...NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE
CENTER OF IGOR...RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 43 MPH...
70 KM/HR...AND A GUST OF 51 MPH...83 KM/HR.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 942 MB...27.82 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN BERMUDA BY LATE
SATURDAY...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.

RAINFALL...IGOR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 5 TO 8 INCHES OVER BERMUDA.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING ON BERMUDA. THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
SOUTHERN COAST.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...
PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...HISPANIOLA...AND PORTIONS OF THE
BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE SWELLS WILL ALSO
CAUSE DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS IN BERMUDA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...WHICH WILL WORSEN AS IGOR APPROACHES. SWELLS WILL CONTINUE
TO AFFECT THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENTS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[cycloneye]

WTNT31 KNHC 181141
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IGOR INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 41A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
800 AM AST SAT SEP 18 2010

...LARGE HURRICANE IGOR EXPECTED TO APPROACH BERMUDA ON SUNDAY...
...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE THIS EVENING...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.6N 63.2W
ABOUT 475 MI...765 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...939 MB...27.73 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IGOR WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 25.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.2 WEST. IGOR IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TODAY FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH ON SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF IGOR WILL
APPROACH BERMUDA LATE SUNDAY. HOWEVER...ADVERSE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT BERMUDA THIS EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. IGOR IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-
SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TODAY...AND GRADUAL
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...IGOR IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN A DANGEROUS HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES BERMUDA.

IGOR IS A VERY LARGE HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUT
UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUT UP TO 345 MILES...555 KM. NOAA BUOY 41049
...LOCATED ABOUT 135 MILES...270 KM...NORTH OF THE CENTER OF IGOR
...RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 58 MPH...94 KM/HR...AND A
GUST OF 72 MPH...115 KM/HR.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 939 MB...27.73 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN BERMUDA BY THIS
EVENING...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING.

RAINFALL...IGOR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 5 TO 8 INCHES OVER BERMUDA.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING ON BERMUDA. THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
SOUTHERN COAST.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...
PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...HISPANIOLA...AND PORTIONS OF THE
BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENTS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[cycloneye]

000
WTNT31 KNHC 181445
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IGOR ADVISORY NUMBER 42
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
1100 AM AST SAT SEP 18 2010

...NEW HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT EN ROUTE TO IGOR...
...CONDITIONS ON BERMUDA ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE THIS EVENING...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.0N 63.6W
ABOUT 440 MI...710 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...939 MB...27.73 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IGOR WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 26.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.6 WEST. IGOR IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH ON SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF IGOR WILL PASS NEAR OR OVER BERMUDA LATE SUNDAY OR EARLY
MONDAY. HOWEVER...ADVERSE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT
BERMUDA THIS EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IGOR IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND IGOR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A
DANGEROUS HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES BERMUDA.

IGOR REMAINS A VERY LARGE HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 345 MILES...555 KM. NOAA
BUOY 41049...LOCATED ABOUT 115 MILES...185 KM...NORTH OF THE CENTER
OF IGOR...RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 60 MPH...97 KM/HR...
AND A GUST OF 67 MPH...108 KM/HR.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 939 MB...27.73 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN BERMUDA BY THIS
EVENING...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING.

RAINFALL...IGOR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 5 TO 8 INCHES OVER BERMUDA.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING ON BERMUDA. THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
SOUTHERN COAST.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS WILL AFFECT AFFECT THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LARGE SWELLS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE IN
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...
HISPANIOLA...AND PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND
RIP CURRENTS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

000
WTNT41 KNHC 181448
TCDAT1
HURRICANE IGOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 42
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
1100 AM AST SAT SEP 18 2010

THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE STRUCTURE OF IGOR DURING THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS. RECENT MICROWAVE OVERPASSES SUGGEST THE
HURRICANE IS UNDERGOING AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE...WITH THE
20 NM WIDE INNER EYE SEEN IN THE PREVIOUS AIRCRAFT MISSION GRADUALLY
WEAKENING. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB REMAIN
102 KT...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 95 KT. AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY EN ROUTE TO
INVESTIGATE IGOR.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 310/10. DURING THE NEXT 36-72 HR...IGOR WILL
ROUND THE WESTERN END OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ATLANTIC AND ENTER THE WESTERLIES TO THE EAST OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OFF THE COAST OF EASTERN NORTH AMERICA.
THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO AND
HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THIS PART OF THE
THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS THUS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...WITH
THE CENTER OF IGOR PASSING NEAR OR OVER BERMUDA IN 36-48 HR. AFTER
72 HR...THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE AS IGOR UNDERGOES
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE ECMWF TURNS THE CYCLONE SHARPLY TO
THE NORTH...WHILE THE OTHER DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW A MORE
NORTHEASTWARD TO EASTWARD MOTION. THIS PART OF THE TRACK IS SHIFTED
TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BASED ON A BLEND OF THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS...BUT LIES TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

IGOR IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT SOUTHERLY VERTICAL SHEAR...AND
THIS IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HR OR SO. AFTER
THAT...THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO ENCOUNTER INCREASING SHEAR. IT
IS UNCERTAIN IF THE CURRENT EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE WILL BE
COMPLETE ENOUGH TO ALLOW STRENGTHENING BEFORE THE SHEAR
INCREASES...BUT CURRENT TRENDS SUGGEST IT WILL NOT. MOST OF THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE NOW SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH OR SLOW
WEAKENING DURING THE FIRST 36 HR...WITH ONLY THE SHIPS MODEL
SHOWING MODEST STRENGTHENING. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR
IGOR TO MAINTAIN A 95 KT INTENSITY FOR 36 HR OR SO...FOLLOWED BY
WEAKENING DUE TO SHEAR. IT CANNOT BE RULED OUT THAT IGOR COULD
REGAIN MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS BEFORE REACHING BERMUDA...BUT IT
APPEARS LESS LIKELY THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION SHOULD BE UNDERWAY BY 72 HR AND BE COMPLETE BY 96 HR.
IGOR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A LARGE AND POWERFUL CYCLONE AFTER
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.

IGOR CONTINUES TO HAVE A VERY LARGE WIND FIELD...AND CONDITIONS WILL
BEGIN TO DETERIORATE ON BERMUDA BY TONIGHT WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE
CENTER.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 18/1500Z 26.0N 63.6W 95 KT
12HR VT 19/0000Z 27.1N 64.6W 95 KT
24HR VT 19/1200Z 28.9N 65.3W 95 KT
36HR VT 20/0000Z 31.1N 65.2W 95 KT
48HR VT 20/1200Z 33.9N 64.2W 90 KT
72HR VT 21/1200Z 40.5N 56.0W 75 KT
96HR VT 22/1200Z 47.5N 44.0W 65 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120HR VT 23/1200Z 50.0N 36.5W 50 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Brent]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IGOR INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 42A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
200 PM AST SAT SEP 18 2010

...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS IGOR SLIGHTLY WEAKER...
...CONDITIONS ON BERMUDA ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE THIS EVENING...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.6N 64.1W
ABOUT 400 MI...645 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...170 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB...27.91 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IGOR WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 26.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.1 WEST. IGOR IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH ON SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF IGOR WILL PASS NEAR OR OVER BERMUDA LATE SUNDAY OR EARLY
MONDAY. HOWEVER...ADVERSE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT
BERMUDA THIS EVENING.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW NEAR 105 MPH...170 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IGOR IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH
ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND IGOR IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN A DANGEROUS HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES BERMUDA.

IGOR REMAINS A VERY LARGE HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 345 MILES...555 KM. NOAA
BUOY 41049...LOCATED ABOUT 90 MILES...185 KM...NORTHEAST OF THE
CENTER OF IGOR...RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 65 MPH...
105 KM/HR...AND A GUST OF 74 MPH...119 KM/HR.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER
IS 945 MB...27.91 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN BERMUDA BY THIS
EVENING...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING.

RAINFALL...IGOR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 5 TO 8 INCHES OVER BERMUDA.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING ON BERMUDA. THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
SOUTHERN COAST.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS WILL AFFECT AFFECT THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LARGE SWELLS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE IN
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...
HISPANIOLA...AND PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND
RIP CURRENTS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN