ATL: IGOR - Advisories

[cycloneye]

WTNT31 KNHC 182039
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IGOR ADVISORY NUMBER 43
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
500 PM AST SAT SEP 18 2010

...IGOR WEAKENS A LITTLE MORE BUT STILL LARGE AND DANGEROUS...
...CONDITIONS ON BERMUDA ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE THIS EVENING...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.1N 64.3W
ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB...27.91 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IGOR WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 27.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.3 WEST. IGOR IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST
IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH ON
SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF IGOR WILL PASS NEAR
OR OVER BERMUDA LATE SUNDAY OR EARLY MONDAY. HOWEVER...ADVERSE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT BERMUDA THIS EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. IGOR IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH
ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND IGOR IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN A DANGEROUS HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES BERMUDA.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
345 MILES...555 KM. NOAA BUOY 41049...LOCATED ABOUT 80 MILES...
130 KM...NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER OF IGOR...RECENTLY REPORTED A
SUSTAINED WIND OF 62 MPH...100 KM/HR...AND A GUST OF 76 MPH...
122 KM/HR.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 945 MB...27.91 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN BERMUDA BY THIS
EVENING...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING.

RAINFALL...IGOR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 6 TO 9 INCHES OVER BERMUDA.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING ON BERMUDA. THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
SOUTHERN COAST.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS WILL AFFECT AFFECT THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LARGE SWELLS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE IN
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...
HISPANIOLA...AND PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND
RIP CURRENTS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

000
WTNT41 KNHC 182039
TCDAT1
HURRICANE IGOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 43
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
500 PM AST SAT SEP 18 2010

IGOR CONTINUES WORKING ITS WAY THROUGH AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE.
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING IGOR
FOUND A FRAGMENT OF THE INNER EYEWALL REMAINING INSIDE AN 85 N MI
WIDE OUTER EYEWALL. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 945 MB. THE MAXIMUM
700-MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 113 KT...WHILE THE MAXIMUM ESTIMATED
SURFACE WINDS FROM THE SFMR WERE 73 KT. SURFACE WIND ESTIMATES
FROM TWO EYEWALL DROPSONDES WERE NEAR 70 KT AND CONSISTENT WITH THE
COINCIDENT SFMR READINGS. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 85 KT...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS IS A
LITTLE GENEROUS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 320/12. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY...AND ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST TRACK FROM THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY. DURING THE NEXT 36-72 HR...IGOR WILL ROUND THE
WESTERN END OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
ATLANTIC AND ENTER THE WESTERLIES TO THE EAST OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING OFF THE COAST OF EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. THE TRACK GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...WITH THE CENTER OF
IGOR PASSING NEAR OR OVER BERMUDA IN ABOUT 36 HR. AFTER 72 HR...
THERE REMAINS SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE AS IGOR UNDERGOES
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THIS PART OF THE TRACK IS SHIFTED A
LITTLE TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BASED ON A BLEND OF THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS...AND IT NOW LIES NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE.

IT APPEARS UNLIKELY THAT IGOR WILL COMPLETE THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT
CYCLE IN TIME TO SIGNIFICANTLY STRENGTHEN GIVEN THE CURRENT
INTERNAL TRENDS AND THE EXPECTATION OF INCREASED VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AFTER 24 HR. NONE OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTHENING...AND THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR LITTLE
CHANGE IN STRENGTH DURING THE NEXT 36 HR. AFTER THAT...IGOR SHOULD
WEAKEN DUE TO INCREASING SHEAR. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SHOULD BE
UNDERWAY BY 72 HR AND BE COMPLETE BY 96 HR. IGOR IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN A LARGE AND POWERFUL CYCLONE AFTER EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION...AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE 96-120 HR INTENSITY
FORECAST.

IGOR CONTINUES TO HAVE A VERY LARGE WIND FIELD...AND CONDITIONS WILL
BEGIN TO DETERIORATE ON BERMUDA TONIGHT WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE
CENTER.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 18/2100Z 27.1N 64.3W 85 KT
12HR VT 19/0600Z 28.4N 65.0W 85 KT
24HR VT 19/1800Z 30.5N 65.4W 85 KT
36HR VT 20/0600Z 33.1N 64.9W 85 KT
48HR VT 20/1800Z 36.1N 62.6W 80 KT
72HR VT 21/1800Z 42.5N 52.5W 75 KT
96HR VT 22/1800Z 48.0N 42.0W 75 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120HR VT 23/1800Z 50.0N 35.0W 60 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[cycloneye]

000
WTNT31 KNHC 182330
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IGOR INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 43A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
800 PM AST SAT SEP 18 2010


...LARGE IGOR HEADING TOWARD BERMUDA...SQUALLS ALREADY SPREADING
ACROSS THE ISLAND...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.7N 64.5W
ABOUT 325 MI...520 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB...27.91 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IGOR WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 27.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.5 WEST. IGOR IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST
IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH ON
SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF IGOR WILL PASS NEAR
OR OVER BERMUDA LATE SUNDAY OR EARLY MONDAY. HOWEVER...WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY WORSEN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. IGOR IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH
ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...BUT IGOR IS STILL EXPECTED
TO REMAIN A DANGEROUS HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES BERMUDA. AN AIR
FORCE PLANE WILL BE INVESTIGATING IGOR LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY.

IGOR IS A VERY LARGE HURRICANE. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD
UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 345 MILES...555 KM. NOAA BUOY
41049...LOCATED ABOUT 90 MILES...150 KM...EAST OF THE CENTER OF
IGOR...RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 80 MPH...130 KM/HR.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 945 MB...27.91 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN BERMUDA LATER
TONIGHT...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING.

RAINFALL...IGOR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 6 TO 9 INCHES OVER BERMUDA.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING ON BERMUDA. THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
SOUTHERN COAST.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS WILL AFFECT AFFECT THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LARGE SWELLS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE IN
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...
HISPANIOLA...AND PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND
RIP CURRENTS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[cycloneye]

000
WTNT31 KNHC 190232
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IGOR ADVISORY NUMBER 44
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
1100 PM AST SAT SEP 18 2010

...LARGE IGOR FORECAST TO BE NEAR BERMUDA ON SUNDAY...WEATHER SHOULD
WORSEN MUCH EARLIER...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.2N 64.7W
ABOUT 285 MI...455 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB...27.91 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IGOR WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 28.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.7 WEST. IGOR IS NOW MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...AND A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH SHOULD BEGIN SOON. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF IGOR WILL PASS NEAR OR OVER BERMUDA LATE SUNDAY OR EARLY
MONDAY. HOWEVER...WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO WORSEN
SOONER.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IGOR IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY BETWEEN NOW AND
THE TIME THE HURRICANE MOVES NEAR OR OVER BERMUDA...BUT IGOR IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN A DANGEROUS HURRICANE DURING THAT PERIOD.
THEREAFTER...A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN. AN AIR FORCE PLANE
WILL BE INVESTIGATING IGOR SHORTLY.

IGOR REMAINS A LARGE HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 345 MILES...555 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 945 MB...27.91 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN BERMUDA SOON
...AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING.

RAINFALL...IGOR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 6 TO 9 INCHES OVER BERMUDA.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING ON BERMUDA. THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
SOUTHERN COAST.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS WILL AFFECT AFFECT THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LARGE SWELLS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE IN
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...
HISPANIOLA...AND PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND
RIP CURRENTS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

000
WTNT41 KNHC 190233
TCDAT1
HURRICANE IGOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 44
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
1100 PM AST SAT SEP 18 2010

THE CLOUD PATTERN IS NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS IT WAS 12 HOURS AGO AND IT
APPEARS THAT IGOR COULD BE A LITTLE BIT WEAKER TONIGHT. THE AREA OF
DEEP CONVECTION HAS DECREASED AND THERE IS NO EYE OBSERVED ON
CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. A MICROWAVE PASS A FEW HOURS AGO
SHOWS A PARTIAL RING OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH WHAT IS LEFT OF
THE EYEWALL. DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE DECREASED...BUT STILL SUPPORT AN
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 85 KNOTS. I WAS TEMPTED TO LOWER THE INTENSITY
JUST A LITTLE BIT GIVEN THE CURRENT SATELLITE PRESENTATION...BUT I
WOULD RATHER WAIT FOR DATA FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT...WHICH
WILL BE IN THE AREA SOON. FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...IGOR WILL BE
WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE TO MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY
AND IN FACT...THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS MODEL KEEPS IGOR WITH NO
CHANGE FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. ALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
SHOWS IGOR WITH 85 KNOTS AS IT PASSES NEAR OR OVER BERMUDA...THE
HURRICANE COULD EASILY EXPERIENCE SOME MINOR FLUCTUATIONS IN
INTENSITY. THEREAFTER...ONCE IGOR BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW WELL NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA...IT SHOULD
BEGIN TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL/EXTRATROPICAL.

THE STEERING FLOW HAS BEEN WELL ESTABLISHED AND WELL DEPICTED BY
GLOBAL MODELS SINCE IGOR FORMED MANY DAYS AGO...AND IT HAS BEEN
DESCRIBED IN DETAIL IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS. IGOR IS NOW MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 11 KNOTS...AND A TURN
TO THE NORTH AROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
SHOULD BEGIN SOON. IN 36 HOUR...THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD FULLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE FLOW AHEAD OF
A LARGE TROUGH. GIVEN THE WELL ESTABLISHED STEERING CURRENTS
FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS...TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 36 HOURS...INCREASING THE CONFIDENCE
IN THE FORECAST DURING THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER...THERE IS A LARGE
SPREAD IN MODELS BEYOND 48 HOURS AS IGOR BECOMES POST-TROPICAL/
EXTRATROPICAL AND MOVES RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NORTH
ATLANTIC.

IGOR CONTINUES TO HAVE A VERY LARGE WIND FIELD...AND CONDITIONS
SHOULD DETERIORATE ON BERMUDA SOON WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE
CENTER.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 19/0300Z 28.2N 64.7W 85 KT
12HR VT 19/1200Z 29.7N 65.4W 85 KT
24HR VT 20/0000Z 32.0N 65.1W 85 KT
36HR VT 20/1200Z 35.0N 64.0W 80 KT
48HR VT 21/0000Z 38.5N 60.5W 80 KT
72HR VT 22/0000Z 46.0N 50.0W 70 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96HR VT 23/0000Z 49.5N 40.0W 60 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120HR VT 24/0000Z 53.0N 35.5W 45 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[Florida1118]

000
WTNT31 KNHC 190540
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IGOR INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 44A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
200 AM AST SUN SEP 19 2010

...LARGE IGOR A LITTLE WEAKER...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS BEGINNING
TO SPREAD OVER BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.3N 65.1W
ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...949 MB...28.02 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IGOR WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 28.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.1 WEST. IGOR IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH SHOULD BEGIN SOON. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF IGOR WILL PASS NEAR OR OVER BERMUDA LATE SUNDAY OR EARLY
MONDAY.

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 90 MPH...150
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE
LIKELY BETWEEN NOW AND THE TIME THE HURRICANE MOVES NEAR OR OVER
BERMUDA...BUT IGOR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A DANGEROUS HURRICANE
DURING THAT PERIOD. GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN BY LATE MONDAY
OR TUESDAY.

IGOR IS A VERY LARGE HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 345 MILES...555 KM.
OBSERVING SITES IN BERMUDA HAVE REPORTED PEAK WINDS OF TROPICAL
STORM FORCE IN THE LAST HOUR...INCLUDING A PEAK WIND OF 54 MPH...
87 KM/HR...AT COMMISSIONERS POINT.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT WAS 949 MB...28.02 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY SPREADING OVER
BERMUDA...AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
OR EVENING.

RAINFALL...IGOR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 6 TO 9 INCHES OVER BERMUDA.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING ON BERMUDA. THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
SOUTHERN COAST.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE EAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LARGE SWELLS WILL GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS
...HISPANIOLA...AND PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF
AND RIP CURRENTS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

[abajan]

000
WTNT31 KNHC 190842
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IGOR ADVISORY NUMBER 45
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
500 AM AST SUN SEP 19 2010

...IGOR WILL APPROACH BERMUDA LATER TODAY...BRINGING STRONG WINDS
AND RAIN TO THE ISLAND...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.9N 65.3W
ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...949 MB...28.02 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IGOR WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 28.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.3 WEST. IGOR IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF IGOR WILL PASS NEAR OR OVER
BERMUDA THIS EVENING OR TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND IGOR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A DANGEROUS HURRICANE AS IT
MOVES NEAR OR OVER BERMUDA.

IGOR IS A VERY LARGE HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD
UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 345 MILES...555 KM. BERMUDA
RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST TO 43 MPH...69 KM/HR.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 949 MB...28.02 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY SPREADING OVER
BERMUDA...AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY THIS AFTERNOON
OR THIS EVENING.

RAINFALL...IGOR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 6 TO 9 INCHES OVER BERMUDA.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING ON BERMUDA. THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
SOUTHERN COAST.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE EAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES THROUGH MONDAY. LARGE SWELLS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...
HISPANIOLA...AND PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF
AND RIP CURRENTS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
_____________________________________________________________________

000
WTNT41 KNHC 190853
TCDAT1
HURRICANE IGOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 45
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
500 AM AST SUN SEP 19 2010

DATA FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATE THAT IGOR HAS CONTINUED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN. THE AIRCRAFT
DID NOT REPORT AN EYEWALL...AND SOME DRY AIR ALSO APPEARS TO BE
WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE CIRCULATION...PARTICULARLY OVER THE
WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 75 KT
BASED ON A BLEND OF THE FLIGHT LEVEL MAXIMUM WIND OF 91 KT AND A
MAXIMUM SFMR READING OF 68 KT. WHILE THE STRONGEST WINDS HAVE
DECREASED...THE SFMR DATA SHOWS THAT THE WIND FIELD OF IGOR
CONTINUES TO BROADEN...AND THE 50-KT AND 64-KT WIND RADII HAVE BEEN
INCREASED. LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...AND IGOR WILL BE A LARGE HURRICANE AS IT PASSES BY
BERMUDA IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND SUBJECTS THAT ISLAND TO A LONG
PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS LIKELY
LASTING AT LEAST 24 HOURS. BY 72 HOURS...IGOR WILL TRANSITION TO A
POWERFUL AND LARGE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE AND THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 340/10. THE LATEST AIRCRAFT FIXES
WERE LOCATED A LITTLE TO THE WEST OF THE APPARENT CENTER IN
GEOSTATIONARY IMAGERY...AND ALSO A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. THE OVERALL TRACK FORECAST REASONING
REMAINS UNCHANGED...AS IGOR WILL TURN NORTHWARD SOON AS IT MOVES
AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...AND THEN
ACCELERATE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY AS IT RECURVES AHEAD
OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVING OFF THE COAST OF NORTH AMERICA.
THROUGH 36 HOURS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED A LITTLE
TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INITIAL POSITION
AND LIES ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE. THE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE INCREASES BEYOND 48 HOURS DUE
TO VARIATIONS IN THE DETAILS OF HOW IGOR INTERACTS WITH THE
MID-LATITUDE FLOW DURING AND AFTER EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED NORTHWARD AT DAYS 3 AND 4 AND
IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS MODEL. AT DAY 5 THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST SHOWS POST-TROPICAL IGOR SLOWING AND TURNING MORE NORTHWARD
...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS SCENARIO AS THE SPREAD IN THE
GUIDANCE IS VERY LARGE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 19/0900Z 28.9N 65.3W 75 KT
12HR VT 19/1800Z 30.5N 65.5W 75 KT
24HR VT 20/0600Z 33.4N 64.9W 75 KT
36HR VT 20/1800Z 37.0N 62.5W 75 KT
48HR VT 21/0600Z 41.0N 57.5W 75 KT
72HR VT 22/0600Z 49.0N 47.0W 70 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96HR VT 23/0600Z 53.0N 38.0W 45 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120HR VT 24/0600Z 56.5N 36.5W 35 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[cycloneye]

WTNT31 KNHC 191149
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IGOR INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 45A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
800 AM AST SUN SEP 19 2010

...CENTER OF IGOR MOVING CLOSER TO BERMUDA...TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS AND SQUALLS BEING REPORTED ON THE ISLAND...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.6N 65.3W
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...949 MB...28.02 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO BERMUDA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IGOR WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 29.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.3 WEST. IGOR IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH
SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT...
FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK... THE CENTER OF IGOR WILL PASS NEAR OR OVER BERMUDA THIS
EVENING OR TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND IGOR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A DANGEROUS HURRICANE AS IT
MOVES NEAR OR OVER BERMUDA.

IGOR IS A VERY LARGE HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD
UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 345 MILES...555 KM. BERMUDA
RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST TO 51 MPH...81 KM/HR.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 949 MB...28.02 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER BERMUDA...AND
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS
EVENING.

RAINFALL...IGOR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 6 TO 9 INCHES OVER BERMUDA.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING ON BERMUDA. THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
SOUTHERN COAST.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE EAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES THROUGH MONDAY. LARGE SWELLS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...
HISPANIOLA...AND PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF
AND RIP CURRENTS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[cycloneye]

000
WTNT31 KNHC 191452
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IGOR ADVISORY NUMBER 46
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
1100 AM AST SUN SEP 19 2010

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS REPORTED ON BERMUDA...STRONGER WINDS
YET TO COME...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.4N 65.4W
ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...949 MB...28.02 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO BERMUDA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IGOR WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 30.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.4 WEST. IGOR IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH
SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT OR MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK... THE CENTER OF IGOR WILL PASS NEAR OR OVER BERMUDA THIS
EVENING OR TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND IGOR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A DANGEROUS HURRICANE AS IT
MOVES NEAR OR OVER BERMUDA.

IGOR IS A VERY LARGE HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD
UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 345 MILES...555 KM. THE OFFICIAL
WEATHER OBSERVING SITE IN BERMUDA RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED
WIND OF 46 MPH...74 KM/HR...WITH A GUST TO 71 MPH...115 KM/HR. AN
ELEVATED OBSERVING SITE IN BERMUDA RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST
TO 89 MPH...143 KM/HR.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 949 MB...28.02 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER BERMUDA...AND
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.

RAINFALL...IGOR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 6 TO 9 INCHES OVER BERMUDA.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING ON BERMUDA. THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
SOUTHERN COAST.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE EAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES THROUGH MONDAY. LARGE SWELLS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...
HISPANIOLA...AND PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF
AND RIP CURRENTS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[Andrew92]

000
WTNT31 KNHC 191751
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IGOR INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 46A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
200 PM AST SUN SEP 19 2010

...IGOR LASHING BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.8N 65.7W
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.11 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO BERMUDA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IGOR WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 30.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.7 WEST. IGOR IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH
SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT OR MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK... THE CENTER OF IGOR WILL PASS NEAR OR OVER BERMUDA THIS
EVENING OR TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND IGOR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A HURRICANE AS IT MOVES
NEAR OR OVER BERMUDA.

IGOR IS A VERY LARGE HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD
UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 345 MILES...555 KM. THE OFFICIAL
WEATHER OBSERVING SITE IN BERMUDA RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED
WIND OF 53 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH A GUST TO 74 MPH...119 KM/HR.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT DATA IS 952 MB...28.11 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER BERMUDA...AND
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

RAINFALL...IGOR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 6 TO 9 INCHES OVER BERMUDA.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING ON BERMUDA. THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
SOUTHERN COAST.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE EAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES THROUGH MONDAY. LARGE SWELLS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...HISPANIOLA...AND PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[Florida1118]

000
WTNT31 KNHC 192045
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IGOR ADVISORY NUMBER 47
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
500 PM AST SUN SEP 19 2010

...LARGE IGOR CONTINUES TO LASH BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.5N 65.9W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM SW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...951 MB...28.08 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO BERMUDA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IGOR WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 31.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.9 WEST. IGOR IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT OR MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK... THE CENTER OF IGOR
WILL PASS NEAR OR JUST WEST OF BERMUDA THIS EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS. IGOR IS FORECAST TO BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IN A
COUPLE OF DAYS.

IGOR IS A VERY LARGE HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 345 MILES...555 KM. THE
OFFICIAL WEATHER OBSERVING SITE IN BERMUDA RECENTLY REPORTED A
SUSTAINED WIND OF 61 MPH...98 KM/HR...WITH A GUST TO 76 MPH...122
KM/HR.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 951 MB...28.08 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER BERMUDA THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT.

RAINFALL...IGOR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 6 TO 9 INCHES OVER BERMUDA.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING ON BERMUDA. THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
SOUTHERN COAST.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE EAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES THROUGH MONDAY. LARGE SWELLS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
IN PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...HISPANIOLA...AND PORTIONS OF
THE BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE
LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[cycloneye]

000
WTNT41 KNHC 192046
TCDAT1
HURRICANE IGOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 47
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
500 PM AST SUN SEP 19 2010

THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT HAS MEASURED PEAK
FLIGHT-LEVEL AND SFMR WINDS OF 82 KT AND 68 KT...RESPECTIVELY.
BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED SLIGHTLY
TO 70 KT. THE WIND FIELD REMAINS QUITE LARGE AND SOME OF THE WIND
RADII HAVE BEEN EXPENDED OUTWARD BASED ON THE AIRCRAFT AND EARLIER
ASCAT DATA. LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED WHILE IGOR
REMAINS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SHOULD BEGIN ON MONDAY...AND BE
COMPLETED IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS SHOWN BY THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS AFTER IGOR BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL...AND THIS IS
REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

THE AIRCRAFT FIXES WERE A FEW TENTHS OF A DEGREE WEST OF THE EARLIER
SATELLITE ESTIMATES. THIS HAS REQUIRED A LITTLE ADJUSTMENT TO THE
INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION. THE UPDATED POSITION HAS ALSO REQUIRED
A SMALL WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE EARLY PORTION OF THE FORECAST TRACK.
THERE HAVE BEEN NO CHANGES TO THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY...
HOWEVER...AND IGOR IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHEAST TONIGHT AHEAD OF A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVING OFF THE COAST OF NORTH AMERICA. THE
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY INCONSISTENT IN THE EXTRATROPICAL
PORTION OF THE TRACK AND THERE REMAINS A VERY LARGE SPREAD IN THE
GUIDANCE AT 3 TO 5 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED A
LITTLE EASTWARD AT 72 HOURS AND BEYOND...TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

ALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF IGOR IS LIKELY TO PASS WEST OF
BERMUDA...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND A LARGE DISTANCE FROM THE
CENTER AND SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE BEING FELT ON THE ISLAND.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 19/2100Z 31.5N 65.9W 70 KT
12HR VT 20/0600Z 33.6N 65.3W 70 KT
24HR VT 20/1800Z 36.9N 62.8W 70 KT
36HR VT 21/0600Z 40.6N 58.1W 70 KT
48HR VT 21/1800Z 45.0N 52.0W 65 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72HR VT 22/1800Z 51.0N 41.0W 55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96HR VT 23/1800Z 55.0N 37.5W 50 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120HR VT 24/1800Z 60.0N 37.5W 45 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[cycloneye]

000
WTNT31 KNHC 192338
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IGOR INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 47A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
800 PM AST SUN SEP 19 2010

...LARGE IGOR HEADED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...CENTER WILL PASS NEAR OR
OVER BERMUDA SOON...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.9N 65.7W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM WSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 015 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...953 MB...28.14 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO BERMUDA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IGOR WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 31.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.7 WEST. IGOR IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT OR MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF IGOR
WILL PASS NEAR OR OVER OF BERMUDA IN A FEW HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS. IGOR IS FORECAST TO BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IN A
COUPLE OF DAYS.

IGOR IS A VERY LARGE HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 345 MILES...555 KM. THE
OFFICIAL WEATHER OBSERVING SITE IN BERMUDA RECENTLY REPORTED A
SUSTAINED WIND OF 54 MPH...87 KM/HR...WITH A GUST TO 67 MPH...107
KM/HR.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 953 MB...28.14 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER BERMUDA THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT.

RAINFALL...IGOR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 6 TO 9 INCHES OVER BERMUDA.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING ON BERMUDA. THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
SOUTHERN COAST.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE EAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES THROUGH MONDAY. LARGE SWELLS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
IN PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...HISPANIOLA...AND PORTIONS OF
THE BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE
LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[cycloneye]

WTNT31 KNHC 200235
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IGOR ADVISORY NUMBER 48
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
1100 PM AST SUN SEP 19 2010

...CENTER OF HURRICANE IGOR PASSING JUST WEST OF BERMUDA...93 MPH
WIND GUST REPORTED ON THE ISLAND...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.4N 65.5W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM W OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO BERMUDA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IGOR WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 32.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.5 WEST. IGOR IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON
MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF IGOR WILL BE PASSING
JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND
BEGIN TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE ISLAND LATER ON MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IGOR IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS. IGOR IS FORECAST TO BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

IGOR IS A VERY LARGE HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 345 MILES...555 KM. THE
OFFICIAL WEATHER OBSERVING SITE IN BERMUDA RECENTLY REPORTED A
SUSTAINED WIND OF 74 MPH...119 KM/HR...WITH A GUST TO 93 MPH...150
KM/HR.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 955 MB...28.20 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER BERMUDA THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATER ON MONDAY MORNING.

RAINFALL...IGOR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO AN INCH OVER BERMUDA THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY.
THIS WILL BRING STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS TO BETWEEN 6 AND 9 INCHES OVER
BERMUDA.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING ON BERMUDA. THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
SOUTHERN COAST.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE EAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES THROUGH MONDAY. LARGE SWELLS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
IN PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...HISPANIOLA...AND PORTIONS OF
THE BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE
LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH



000
WTNT41 KNHC 200235
TCDAT1
HURRICANE IGOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 48
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
1100 PM AST SUN SEP 19 2010

THE LAST OBSERVATIONS FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT SHOWED THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS SLOWLY RISING AND
MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS HAD DECREASED TO 68 KT. THERE WERE A
FEW SFMR-OBSERVED SURFACE WINDS OF 65 TO 69 KT ABOUT 90 N MI TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER BUT MOST OF THESE WERE FLAGGED AS
QUESTIONABLE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 65 KT...WHICH IS
REMARKABLY LOW FOR THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 955 MB. NOT
MUCH ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
BY 36 HOURS...THE GFS SHOWS WELL-DEFINED THERMAL ADVECTION WITHIN
THE CIRCULATION AND THEREFORE IGOR IS LIKELY TO HAVE BEEN
TRANSFORMED INTO A VIGOROUS EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE AROUND THAT TIME.

THE LATEST CENTER FIXES INDICATE THAT THE TRACK IS BEGINNING TO
BEND TO THE RIGHT AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 015/12.
NOT MUCH CHANGE IS MADE TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK FOR THE NEXT
24 TO 36 HOURS. IGOR IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD ON MONDAY
AND ACCELERATE AHEAD OF A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD FROM
THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. IN THE LATTER HALF
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...POST-TROPICAL IGOR IS LIKELY TO TURN BACK
TO THE NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHWEST AS IT INTERACTS WITH ANOTHER
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE AT HIGH LATITUDES.

SUSTAINED WINDS OF 64 KT WITH GUSTS TO 81 KT WERE REPORTED AT
BERMUDA DURING THE PAST HOUR. SINCE IGOR HAS A VERY LARGE
CIRCULATION...SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON THE ISLAND WILL PROBABLY
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 20/0300Z 32.4N 65.5W 65 KT
12HR VT 20/1200Z 34.6N 64.4W 65 KT
24HR VT 21/0000Z 38.1N 60.9W 65 KT
36HR VT 21/1200Z 42.5N 55.5W 70 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48HR VT 22/0000Z 46.5N 49.0W 70 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72HR VT 23/0000Z 49.5N 38.0W 50 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96HR VT 24/0000Z 58.0N 37.0W 40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120HR VT 25/0000Z 62.0N 42.0W 30 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[HURAKAN]

434
WTNT31 KNHC 201151
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IGOR INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 49A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
800 AM AST MON SEP 20 2010

...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS STILL OCCURRING ON BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.2N 64.0W
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM N OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 975 MI...1565 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB...28.26 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND FROM STONES COVE NORTHWARD AND WESTWARD
TO JONES HARBOUR

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IGOR WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 35.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.0 WEST. IGOR IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...IGOR WILL CONTINUE
MOVING AWAY FROM BERMUDA AND PASS OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHEASTERN TIP
OF NEWFOUNDLAND ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IGOR IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND IGOR IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A STRONG
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

IGOR IS A LARGE HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 90 MILES...150 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 345 MILES...555 KM. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS ARE STILL OCCURRING ON BERMUDA. A 10-MINUTE WIND OF 46
MPH...74 KM/HR...AND A GUST TO 59 MPH...94 KM/HR WERE RECENTLY
REPORTED ON THE ISLAND.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 957 MB...28.26 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE STILL OCCURRING IN BERMUDA.
THESE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATER TODAY.

RAINFALL...SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH IGOR IN BERMUDA HAS
ENDED.

STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE SHOULD BE SUBSIDING BUT COULD STILL
PRODUCE SOME COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE COAST OF BERMUDA TODAY.
THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DAMAGING WAVES.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE EAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES THROUGH TUESDAY. LARGE SWELLS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
IN PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...HISPANIOLA...AND PORTIONS OF
THE BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE
LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[yzerfan]

WOCN31 CWHX 201200
Hurricane igor information statement issued by the canadian
Hurricane centre of Environment Canada at 9.00 AM ADT Monday
20 September 2010.

The next statement will be issued by 3.00 PM ADT

...Igor north of Bermuda...Expected to cross the Grand Banks and
Give heavy rain and gusty winds to Newfoundland on Tuesday...

1. Current position, strength, central pressure and motion

At 9.00 AM ADT... Hurricane igor was located near latitude 35.2 N
And longitude 64.0 W... About 175 nautical miles or 320 km
North northeast of Bermuda. Maximum sustained winds are
Estimated at 65 knots... 120 km/h... And central pressure at 957
MB. Igor is moving north northeast at 18 knots... 33 km/h.

2. Forecast position, central pressure and strength

Date time lat lon MSLP Max wind
ADT MB kts kmh
Sep 20 9.00 AM 35.2N 63.7W 957 65 120
Sep 20 9.00 PM 38.8N 60.1W 955 65 120 transitioning
Sep 21 9.00 AM 42.5N 55.2W 953 70 130 transitioning
Sep 21 9.00 PM 46.0N 49.5W 956 70 130 post-tropical
Sep 22 9.00 AM 48.5N 43.9W 960 65 120 post-tropical
Sep 22 9.00 PM 51.0N 39.3W 964 60 111 post-tropical


3. Public weather impacts and warnings summary

While the centre of igor is expected to pass well southeast of the
Avalon Peninsula later on Tuesday, it is expected to spread heavy
rain across central and eastern portions of the province Tuesday
morning. In addition, a trough of low pressure unrelated to igor will
cross Newfoundland today and tonight and spread periods of rain to
the south coast. The nlwo has issued rainfall warnings for parts of
Southern Newfoundland associated with this trough. On Tuesday this
trough is expected to interact with the moisture from igor and
intensify the heavy rain over Eastern Newfoundland. Total potential
rainfall from these systems are expected to generally run from 50 to
100 millimeters to most of Central and Eastern Newfoundland. The
Avalon Peninsula will likely see the highest rainfall amounts from
igor and 100 to 150 millimeters is expected with local amounts
possibly exceeding 150 millimetres (6 inches). As a result the nlwo
has extended their rainfall warnings to Central and Eastern
Newfoundland.

In areas where rainfall is heaviest localized flooding due to streams
and rivers coming over their banks is likely. Interests in
Flood prone areas should be prepared for excessive rain runoff.

In addition, wind gusts possibly exceeding 90 km/h could also affect
parts of the Avalon Peninsula and Burin Peninsula Tuesday afternoon
and evening. As a result the CHC has issued tropical storm watches
for these areas. The watch area may need to be extended to the
Bonavista Peninsula later today.

Long period swells of up to 2 to 3 metres spreading out ahead of
Igor will continue to affect the Atlantic coast of Nova Scotia
And southern-facing coastlines of Newfoundland. In addition higher
than normal water levels and rough pounding
Surf can be expected along the northeast and east coasts of
Newfoundland later in the day Tuesday as igor moves east of the
Grand Banks.

4. Marine weather impacts and warnings summary

Hurricane force winds are expected close to igor's track as
It clips Laurentian fan Tuesday morning and crosses the Grand Banks
later on Tuesday. Storm force winds will affect most offshore waters
and gales are expected to extend well outward into all quadrants
surrounding igor as it passes on Tuesday. Hurricane force wind
warnings have been issued for the southeastern half of Laurentian fan
and most of the Grand Banks. Storm warnings have been issued for
adjacent waters. Gale warnings have also been posted for all
remaining maritime slope waters, and a swath from Eastern Sable
through to the south and east coasts of Newfoundland.

A swath of 9 to 10 metre significant wave heights can be expected
near and close to the right-hand-side of igors track.

5. Technical discussion for meteorologists

A. Analysis

Satellite imagery still shows igor as a large
Hurricane with good outflow to the north and west. However, water
vapour imagery indicates some dry air has wrapped into the system.
Also, convection has decreased overall with igor, with the southern
side of igor becoming nearly completely exposed. The most recent
radar imagery from Bermuda seems to show this as well. Despite
This, igor will remain over 26c ssts and thus is forecast to
Maintain its intensity in the short term. However the shear over
Igor is forecast to increase later today so no Major increase in
intensity is expected.

Observational data continue to show that igor has a very large wind
field, with gale force winds extending up to 300 NM outward from the
storm centre. At 0222Z Bermuda airport reported a wind gust of
81 knots as igor passed just to its west. Winds have since veered to
the southwest and diminished. However at 1025Z southwest winds
Were still gusting to 51 knots. The surface pressure has risen
significantly since igor has moved north of the island.

B. Prognostic

No change from previous track or intensity forecast philosophy. Igor
is currently moving north-northeastward but is expected to turn
toward the northeast in the next 12 hours as it begins to round the
edge of a strong mid-atmospheric ridge. Beyond that a shortwave from
the Great Lakes will round the base of a large upper low over Québec
and begin to accelerate igor northeastward. Most guidance agrees with
this general scenario. Most deterministic models also depict a
significant interaction between transitioning post-tropical igor and
the short wave over Newfoundland in the 24 to 36 hour time frame.
There is enough track uncertainty that igor could track as far north
as just south of Cape Race to as much as 400 kilometres south of
Cape Race.

Igor will remain over very warm sst's for at least another 12 hours.
Then shear is forecast to increase and gradual weakening of igor
Is expected beyond the 36 to 48 hour time period.

Cyclone phase space diagrams show extra-tropical transition
Beginning tonight, although most of the models are
Suggesting that the transition process will be slow. The timing of
this transition, specifically how quickly igor's rainfall pattern
will become asymmetrical and shift to left of track, could
Come into play with the short wave interaction over Newfoundland
On Tuesday.

C. Public weather

Models indicate a large area of 100 to 150 millimetres
Over the Avalon Peninsula. Pockets of over 150 millimetres are also
hinted at in many models and this seems reasonable. Interaction with
approaching trough will remain to be the tricky part and this will
Be monitored closely.

D. Marine weather

In addition, some long range models are indicating a
Major post-igor development to the east of Newfoundland which may
develop Major wave activity and significant storm surge for the
northeast coast and the east coast for Tuesday into Wednesday. The
tidal range will also be a bit larger than normal during this
Period but will not be perigean spring tides.

Predicted wind radii (NM)
Time gales storms hurricane
Ne se sw nw ne se sw nw ne se sw nw
20/12Z 300 285 200 260 180 150 120 135 130 90 50 50
21/00Z 310 295 205 250 180 150 110 115 130 90 50 50
21/12Z 320 315 215 250 180 150 110 100 100 60 30 20
22/00Z 335 335 230 250 160 155 110 95 60 60 15 10
22/12Z 350 350 255 250 165 165 110 95 10 10 0 0
23/00Z 360 360 295 260 175 175 110 105 0 0 0 0

End khan/hatt/fogarty




WOCN31 CWHX 200600
Hurricane igor information statement issued by the canadian
Hurricane centre of Environment Canada at 3.00 AM ADT Monday
20 September 2010.

The next statement will be issued by 9.00 AM ADT

...Igor leaving Bermuda...Expected to cross the Grand Banks and
Give heavy rain and gusty winds to Newfoundland on Tuesday...

1. Current position, strength, central pressure and motion

At 3.00 AM ADT... Hurricane igor was located near latitude 33.4 N
And longitude 65.1 W... About 60 nautical miles or 110 km
north-northwest of Bermuda . Maximum sustained winds are estimated
At 65 knots...120 km/h... And central pressure at 955 MB. Igor is
Moving north-northeast at 14 knots... 26 km/h.

2. Forecast position, central pressure and strength

Date time lat lon MSLP Max wind
ADT MB kts kmh
Sep 20 3.00 AM 33.4N 65.1W 955 65 120
Sep 20 3.00 PM 37.0N 62.3W 955 65 120
Sep 21 3.00 AM 40.5N 58.0W 952 70 130 transitioning
Sep 21 3.00 PM 44.5N 52.4W 954 70 130 transitioning
Sep 22 3.00 AM 47.4N 46.5W 958 65 120 post-tropical
Sep 22 3.00 PM 49.7N 41.3W 960 60 111 post-tropical
Sep 23 3.00 AM 52.2N 37.3W 963 50 93 post-tropical

3. Public weather impacts and warnings summary

While the centre of igor is expected to pass well southeast of the
Avalon Peninsula later on Tuesday, it is expected to spread heavy
rain across central and eastern portions of the province Tuesday
morning. In addition, a trough of low pressure unrelated to igor will
cross Newfoundland today and tonight and spread periods of rain to
the south coast. The nlwo has issued rainfall warnings for parts of
Southern Newfoundland associated with this trough. On Tuesday this
trough is expected to interact with the moisture from igor and
intensify the heavy rain over Eastern Newfoundland. Total potential
rainfall from these systems are expected to generally run from 50 to
100 millimeters to most of Central and Eastern Newfoundland. The
Avalon Peninsula will likely see the highest rainfall amounts from
igor and 100 to 150 millimeters is expected with local amounts
possibly exceeding 150 millimetres. As a result the nlwo will be
extending their rainfall warnings to Central and Eastern Newfoundland
with their 5:30 AM NDT forecast later this morning.

In addition, wind gusts possibly exceeding 90 km/h could also affect
parts of the Avalon Peninsula and Burin Peninsula Tuesday afternoon
and evening. As a result the CHC has issued tropical storm watches
for these areas. The watch area may need to be extended to the
Bonavista Peninsula later today.

Long period swells of up to 2 to 3 metres spreading out ahead of
Igor will continue to affect the Atlantic coast of Nova Scotia
And southern-facing coastlines of Newfoundland for the next several
days. In addition higher than normal water levels and rough pounding
surf can be expected along the northeast and east coasts of
Newfoundland later in the day Tuesday as igor moves east of the
Grand Banks.

4. Marine weather impacts and warnings summary

Hurricane force winds are expected close to igor's track as
It clips Laurentian fan Tuesday morning and crosses the Grand Banks
later on Tuesday. Storm force winds will affect most offshore waters
and gales are expected to extend well outward into all quadrants
surrounding igor as it passes on Tuesday. Hurricane force wind
warnings are currently being posted for the southeastern half of
Laurentian fan and most of the Grand Banks. Storm warnings are being
issued for adjacent waters. Gale warnings are also being posted for
all remaining maritime slope waters, and a swath from Eastern Sable
through to the south and east coasts of Newfoundland.

A swath of 9 to 10 metre significant wave heights can be expected
near and close to the right-hand-side of igors track.

5. Technical discussion for meteorologists

A. Analysis

Satellite imagery prior to the eclipse still shows igor as a large
hurricane with good outflow to the north and west. However, water
vapour imagery indicates some dry air has wrapped into the system.
Also, convection has decreased overall with igor, with the southern
edge of igor being practically convection-free. The most recent
Radar imagery from Bermuda seems to show this as well. Hence, the
initial intensity is lowered to 65 knots for this advisory. Despite
this, igor will remain over 27c sst's and in a low shear environment
for the next 12 hours and thus is forecast to slightly intensify in
the short term.

Observational data continue to show that igor has a very large wind
field, with gale force winds extending up to 300 NM outward from the
storm centre. At 0222Z Bermuda airport reported a wind gust of
81 knots as igor passed just to its west. Winds have since veered to
the southwest and surface pressure has risen slightly indicating
Igor has moved north of the island.

B. Prognostic

No change from previous track or intensity forecast philosophy. Igor
is currently moving north-northeastward but is expected to turn
toward the northeast in the next 12 hours as it begins to round the
edge of a strong mid-atmospheric ridge. Beyond that a shortwave from
the Great Lakes will round the base of a large upper low over Québec
and begin to accelerate igor northeastward. Most guidance agrees with
this general scenario. Most deterministic models also depict a
significant interaction between transitioning post-tropical igor and
the short wave over Newfoundland in the 36 hour time frame.

Igor will remain over very warm sst's and favorable shear conditions
for at least another 12 hours. Then shear is forecast to increase and
gradual weakening of igor is expected beyond the 36 to 48 hour time
period.

Cyclone phase space diagrams show extra-tropical transition
Beginning tonight, although most of the models are
Suggesting that the transition process will be slow. The timing of
this transition, specifically how quickly igor's rainfall pattern
will become asymmetrical and shift to left of track, could
Come into play with the short wave interaction over Newfoundland
On Tuesday.

C. Public weather

See above. Models indicate a large area of 100 to 150 millimetres
over the Avalon Peninsula. Pockets of over 150 millimetres are also
hinted at in many models and this seems reasonable. Interaction with
approaching trough will remain to be the tricky part and this will
Be monitored closely.

D. Marine weather

See above. In addition, some long range models are indicating a
Major post-igor development to the east of Newfoundland which may
develop Major wave activity and significant storm surge for for
northeast coast and the east coast for Tuesday into Wednesday. The
tidal range will also be a bit larger than normal during this
Period but will not be perigean spring tides.

Predicted wind radii (NM)
Time gales storms hurricane
Ne se sw nw ne se sw nw ne se sw nw
20/06Z 300 280 200 270 150 150 115 145 80 65 55 50
20/18Z 305 290 200 255 150 150 115 125 75 70 50 40
21/06Z 315 305 210 250 150 150 110 105 70 70 40 25
21/18Z 330 330 220 250 150 150 110 95 60 60 25 15
22/06Z 345 345 240 250 160 160 110 95 25 25 5 5
22/18Z 355 355 275 255 170 170 110 100 0 0 0 0
23/06Z 365 365 315 265 180 180 110 110 0 0 0 0

End khan

[HURAKAN]

HURRICANE IGOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 50
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
1100 AM AST MON SEP 20 2010

STRONG SOUTHERLY SHEAR HAS DISPLACED ALL OF THE DEEP CONVECTION TO
THE NORTH OF THE EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THERE HAVE BEEN NO
RECENT OBSERVATIONS NEAR THE CENTER OF IGOR...BUT SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUPPORT AN INTENSITY AT OR JUST BELOW 65 KT.
THE INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 65 KT...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT IGOR
COULD REGAIN A LITTLE BIT OF STRENGTH AS IT BEGINS TO GO THROUGH
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THAT PROCESS IS EXPECTED TO BE COMPLETE
BY 36 HOURS WHEN IGOR SHOULD BE COMPLETELY EMBEDDED WITHIN A
FRONTAL ZONE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS SOME RE-STRENGTHENING
DURING THE FIRST 24 HOURS AND GRADUAL WEAKENING FROM 36-96 HOURS.
THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY 120 HOURS. THIS FORECAST
IS MORE OR LESS A BLEND OF DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE AND GUIDANCE PROVIDED
BY THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

IGOR CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH A MOTION OF
025/21. THERE IS LITTLE SPREAD IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE DURING THE
NEXT 36 HOURS...AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST ONLY HAD TO BE
SHIFTED A SMALL DISTANCE TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
AFTER 36 HOURS...THERE IS MORE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE...BUT THE
BULK OF THE MODELS SHOW POST-TROPICAL IGOR TURNING NORTHWESTWARD
TOWARD GREENLAND. THE NHC FORECAST BY 96 HOURS IS TO THE WEST OF
THE MODEL CONSENSUS TO PUT MORE WEIGHT ON THE GLOBAL MODELS AND
LESS ON THE GFDL.

THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER ALSO PROVIDED THE CURRENT 12-FOOT SEAS
RADII AND THE WIND RADII DURING THE EXTRATROPICAL PHASE...ALL OF
WHICH HAVE BEEN EXPANDED IN THIS ADVISORY PACKAGE. IGOR WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A LARGE CYCLONE AS IT MOVES PAST NEWFOUNDLAND TOWARD
GREENLAND.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 20/1500Z 36.1N 63.3W 65 KT
12HR VT 21/0000Z 38.9N 60.6W 70 KT
24HR VT 21/1200Z 42.9N 55.0W 75 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36HR VT 22/0000Z 46.8N 48.9W 70 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48HR VT 22/1200Z 50.4N 44.0W 60 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72HR VT 23/1200Z 56.5N 40.5W 55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96HR VT 24/1200Z 62.5N 47.0W 30 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120HR VT 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[HURAKAN]

875
WTNT21 KNHC 202037
TCMAT1
HURRICANE IGOR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 51
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
2100 UTC MON SEP 20 2010

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND FROM STONES COVE NORTHWARD AND WESTWARD
TO CHARLOTTETOWN

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.2N 61.5W AT 20/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 24 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 968 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 75NE 50SE 60SW 75NW.
50 KT.......150NE 150SE 100SW 140NW.
34 KT.......330NE 300SE 300SW 300NW.
12 FT SEAS..600NE 600SE 850SW 530NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.2N 61.5W AT 20/2100Z
AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 37.2N 62.6W

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 41.0N 57.9W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 90SE 120SW 120NW.
50 KT...175NE 200SE 150SW 175NW.
34 KT...400NE 350SE 350SW 350NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 45.3N 52.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 180SE 180SW 150NW.
50 KT...200NE 250SE 250SW 230NW.
34 KT...600NE 450SE 450SW 400NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 50.1N 47.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 180SE 180SW 150NW.
50 KT...270NE 270SE 270SW 220NW.
34 KT...750NE 480SE 480SW 480NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 54.6N 45.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT...180NE 240SE 240SW 150NW.
34 KT...480NE 480SE 450SW 420NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 60.0N 46.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 150SE 150SW 0NW.
34 KT...360NE 270SE 300SW 360NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 66.0N 56.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.2N 61.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[HURAKAN]

319
WTNT41 KNHC 202040
TCDAT1
HURRICANE IGOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 51
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
500 PM AST MON SEP 20 2010

IGOR APPEARS TO BE STARTING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM
NEWFOUNDLAND SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE HURRICANE...AND COLD ADVECTION
IS INCREASING OVER THE WESTERN SIDE OF ITS CIRCULATION. GLOBAL
MODEL FIELDS SUGGEST THAT IGOR SHOULD BE FULLY INCORPORATED INTO
THE FRONTAL ZONE BY 24 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER. ASCAT DATA FROM
EARLIER THIS MORNING SHOWED A LARGE AREA OF STRONG WINDS...
BETWEEN 55-64 KT...OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE STORM AND
SUPPORTS AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KT. THE ORIENTATION OF THE
STRONG WINDS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT ALSO SUGGESTS THAT
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS OCCURRING. IGOR COULD BE REINVIGORATED
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL...AND THE NHC
FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME STRENGTHENING IN THE SHORT TERM...
FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL WEAKENING AND DISSIPATION BY 120 HOURS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 040/24. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS STILL
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THEN SHOWS INCREASING
SPREAD AFTER THAT TIME. THERE IS GREATER AGREEMENT THAT IGOR WILL
TURN NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD GREENLAND AFTER 24
HOURS...BUT THERE IS NOT AS MUCH AGREEMENT IN THE FORWARD SPEED.
THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...THE
MODEL CONSENSUS TVCN...AND GUIDANCE PROVIDED BY THE OCEAN
PREDICTION CENTER.

EVEN THOUGH IGOR IS FORECAST TO BE EXTRATROPICAL AS IT PASSES
NEWFOUNDLAND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS COULD REACH THE COAST OF
NEWFOUNDLAND BEFORE THE TRANSITION IS COMPLETE. THEREFORE...
ENVIRONMENT CANADA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
EASTERN PART OF THAT PROVINCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 20/2100Z 38.2N 61.5W 65 KT
12HR VT 21/0600Z 41.0N 57.9W 70 KT
24HR VT 21/1800Z 45.3N 52.3W 75 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36HR VT 22/0600Z 50.1N 47.5W 70 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48HR VT 22/1800Z 54.6N 45.8W 60 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72HR VT 23/1800Z 60.0N 46.5W 50 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96HR VT 24/1800Z 66.0N 56.0W 30 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120HR VT 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[Terry]

Tropical Cyclone Information Statements

WOCN31 CWHX 201800
Hurricane igor information statement issued by the canadian
Hurricane centre of Environment Canada at 3.22 PM ADT Monday
20 September 2010.

The next statement will be issued by 9.00 PM ADT

...Igor expected to cross the Grand Banks on Tuesday...Heavy rain
And strong winds expected Tuesday and Tuesday night for southeastern
Newfoundland...

1. Current position, strength, central pressure and motion

At 3.00 PM ADT... Hurricane igor was located near latitude 37.1 N
And longitude 62.5 W... About 430 nautical miles or 800 km
South southwest of Sable Island. Maximum sustained winds are
Estimated at 65 knots... 120 km/h... And central pressure at 965
MB. Igor is moving northeast at 23 knots... 43 km/h.

2. Forecast position, central pressure and strength

Date time lat lon MSLP Max wind
ADT MB kts kmh
Sep 20 3.00 PM 37.1N 62.5W 965 65 120 transitioning
Sep 21 3.00 AM 40.6N 57.7W 960 70 130 transitioning
Sep 21 3.00 PM 44.2N 52.4W 960 70 130 post-tropical
Sep 22 3.00 AM 47.2N 46.7W 960 70 130 post-tropical
Sep 22 3.00 PM 49.8N 41.6W 962 60 111 post-tropical
Sep 23 3.00 AM 52.2N 37.0W 966 55 102 post-tropical

3. Public weather impacts and warnings summary
Rain has moved into parts of Newfoundland due to a trough of
Low pressure unrelated to igor. The rain will likely become
Heavier tonight as moisture from igor interacts with the trough.
Heavy rainfall can be expected over southern and eastern
Newfoundland on Tuesday associated with the trough and more directly
from igor as the storm tracks southeast of the Avalon Peninsula.
Rainfall totals from the trough and igor could reach or exceed
150 millimetres (6 inches). This will likely lead to localized
flooding from excessive rain runoff and streams overflowing their
banks. Erosion from such flooding could cause some washouts of
Roads and property.

In addition, wind gusts reaching or exceeding 100 km/h could affect
parts of the Avalon Peninsula Burin Peninsula and Bonavista
Peninsula Tuesday afternoon and evening. As a result the CHC has
issued tropical storm warnings for these areas. Large tree branches
could break which would lead to downed utility lines.

Long period swells of up to 2 to 3 metres spreading out ahead of
Igor will continue to affect the Atlantic coast of Nova Scotia
And southern-facing coastlines of Newfoundland for the next several
days. In addition higher than normal water levels and rough pounding
surf can be expected along the northeast and east coasts of
Newfoundland later in the day Tuesday as igor moves east of the
Grand Banks.

4. Marine weather impacts and warnings summary

Hurricane force winds are expected close to igor's track as
It clips Laurentian fan Tuesday morning and crosses the Grand Banks
later on Tuesday. Storm force winds will affect most offshore waters
and gales are expected to extend well outward into all quadrants
surrounding igor as it passes on Tuesday. Hurricane force wind
warnings have been issued for the southeastern half of Laurentian fan
and most of the Grand Banks. Storm warnings have been issued for
adjacent waters. Gale warnings have also been posted for all
remaining maritime slope waters, and a swath from Eastern Sable
through to the south and east coasts of Newfoundland.

A swath of 9 to 10 metre significant wave heights can be expected
near and close to the right-hand-side of igors track.

5. Technical discussion for meteorlogists

A. Analysis
Satellite imagery continues to show significant outflow to the north
and west of igor. However, water vapour imagery shows dry air
wrapping into igor from the south. Although igor is a category
One storm, observational data continue to show a very large wind
field, with gale force winds extending over 300 NM outward from the
storm centre. At 14Z Bermuda was still reporting tropical storm
Force westerly winds however since then the winds have diminished
below tropical storm force.

Radar and satellite imagery indicate a band of moderate to heavy
Rain associated with the trough moving into Southern Newfoundland.

B. Prognostic
Although igor is still moving north-northeast, a turn more northeast
is expected tonight. The track forecast has shifted slightly more
north and west since the last bulletin issue. This is based on
The initial motion still north-northeasterly. A turn more northerly
after igor moves east of Newfoundland on Wednesday is expected as
igor becomes post-tropical and merges with an upper trough.

C. Public weather
Models indicate a large area of 100 to 150 millimetres
Over southern and Eastern Newfoundland. Pockets of over 150
millimetres are also hinted at in many models and this seems
reasonable. Interaction with the approaching trough will remain
To be the tricky part and this will be monitored closely. The
Models vary somewhat where the highest rainfall will occur. The nam
and gfs show the rainfall maximum west of the Avalon Peninsula
While the Gem shows the most rainfall over the Southern Avalon.

D. Marine weather

Large wave activity and some storm surge for the
Coastlines of the eastern peninsulas of Newfoundland is expected
For Tuesday into Wednesday. The tidal range will also be a bit
Larger than normal during this period but will not be perigean
Spring tides.

Predicted wind radii (NM)
Time gales storms hurricane
Ne se sw nw ne se sw nw ne se sw nw
20/18Z 310 300 200 255 180 160 110 125 100 90 50 50
21/06Z 315 305 210 250 180 160 120 120 100 90 60 60
21/18Z 325 325 220 250 180 180 130 130 80 80 60 60
22/06Z 340 340 240 250 170 170 130 130 50 50 30 30
22/18Z 355 355 275 255 170 170 130 130 0 0 0 0
23/06Z 365 365 315 265 180 180 130 130 0 0 0 0

End hatt/fogarty

[cycloneye]

000
WTNT41 KNHC 210233
TCDAT1
HURRICANE IGOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 52
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
1100 PM AST MON SEP 20 2010

IGOR CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS...HOWEVER
THERE IS STILL SOME ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM. MOREOVER...SHORT-TERM GLOBAL MODEL
FORECASTS INDICATE THAT THE BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT IS WITHIN THE
CIRCULATION HAS NOT YET REACHED THE CENTER. IGOR IS THEREFORE NOT
COMPLETELY EMBEDDED IN THE FRONT AND WILL BE MAINTAINED AS A
TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR THIS ADVISORY. IT IS...HOWEVER...EXPECTED TO
BECOME FULLY EXTRATROPICAL ON TUESDAY. SOME BAROCLINICALLY INDUCED
STRENGTHENING IS PREDICTED UNTIL THE CYCLONE MOVES PAST THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD THE SYSTEM WILL BE
MERGING WITH ANOTHER EXTRATROPICAL LOW OVER HIGH LATITUDES.

INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT FASTER 045/25. IGOR...OR ITS
POST-TROPICAL COUNTERPART...IS LIKELY TO BE STEERED AROUND A LARGE
MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC GYRE OVER NORTHEASTERN NORTH AMERICA OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK BEYOND 12 HOURS HAS
BEEN ADJUSTED SOMEWHAT TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.

EVEN THOUGH IGOR IS FORECAST TO BE EXTRATROPICAL AS IT PASSES
NEWFOUNDLAND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS COULD REACH THE COAST OF
NEWFOUNDLAND BEFORE THE TRANSITION IS COMPLETE. ENVIRONMENT CANADA
IS THEREFORE MAINTAINING THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE EASTERN
PART OF THAT PROVINCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 21/0300Z 39.9N 59.3W 65 KT
12HR VT 21/1200Z 43.2N 55.0W 70 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24HR VT 22/0000Z 48.9N 49.4W 75 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36HR VT 22/1200Z 54.8N 47.9W 65 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48HR VT 23/0000Z 59.0N 52.7W 60 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72HR VT 24/0000Z 63.5N 59.5W 50 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96HR VT 25/0000Z 68.5N 62.0W 25 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120HR VT 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[cycloneye]

000
WTNT31 KNHC 211153
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IGOR INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 53A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
800 AM AST TUE SEP 21 2010

...IGOR QUICKLY LOSING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS...CENTER IS
EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND THIS MORNING...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...44.5N 53.5W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM S OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 45 MPH...75 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND FROM STONES COVE NORTHWARD AND EASTWARD
TO FOGO ISLAND

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND FROM BURGEO NORTHWARD AND EASTWARD
TO TRITON
* THE ISLANDS OF ST-PIERRE AND MIQUELON

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 6 TO
12 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND
WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IGOR WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 44.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 53.5 WEST. IGOR IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR. A TURN TO THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED ON WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF IGOR WILL MOVE NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN TIP OF
NEWFOUNDLAND LATER THIS MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IGOR IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND IGOR IS
LIKELY TO BECOME AN INTENSE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 380
MILES...610 KM. CANADIAN BUOY 44139...LOCATED ABOUT 150 MILES WEST
OF THE CENTER...RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 62 MPH...100
KM/HR...AND CANADIAN BUOY 41138 LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE CENTER
REPORTED A PRESSURE OF 962 MB...28.41 INCHES.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 960 MB...28.35 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...WINDS OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE/GALE-FORCE ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA TODAY. WINDS OF HURRICANE FORCE
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA.

RAINFALL...IGOR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
4 TO 8 INCHES PRIMARILY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF NEWFOUNDLAND...WITH
ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE EAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES THROUGH TODAY AND THE SOUTH-FACING COASTLINES OF
NOVA SCOTIA AND NEWFOUNDLAND FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SWELLS WILL BE
SLOW TO SUBSIDE IN PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...HISPANIOLA...
AND PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE
SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS.
PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART