000
WTNT31 KNHC 081459
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IGOR ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
1100 AM AST WED SEP 08 2010
...IGOR FORMS IN THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...TROPICAL
STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.7N 23.5W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...INCLUDING MAIO...SAO
TIAGO...FOGO..AND BRAVA.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...INCLUDING MAIO...SAO TIAGO...
FOGO...AND BRAVA
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO
24 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IGOR WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 23.5 WEST. IGOR IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH SOME INCREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF IGOR
SHOULD PASS SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS BY TOMORROW.
DATA FROM A MICROWAVE SATELLITE INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLOW
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WINDS... TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS LATER TODAY AND OVERNIGHT.
RAINFALL...IGOR COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/PASCH
000
WTNT21 KNHC 081459
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM IGOR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
1500 UTC WED SEP 08 2010
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...INCLUDING MAIO...SAO
TIAGO...FOGO..AND BRAVA.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...INCLUDING MAIO...SAO TIAGO...
FOGO...AND BRAVA
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO
24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 23.5W AT 08/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 7 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 45SE 45SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 23.5W AT 08/1500Z
AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 23.3W
FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 13.7N 24.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 45SE 45SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 13.8N 26.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 14.0N 29.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 45SE 30SW 45NW.
FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 14.5N 31.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 35NE 0SE 0SW 35NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 35SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 15.5N 36.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 35SE 35SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 45SW 60NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 16.8N 41.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 18.0N 46.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.7N 23.5W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/PASCH
ATL: IGOR - Advisories
Moderator: S2k Moderators
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cycloneye
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ATL: IGOR - Advisories
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL : IGOR - Advisories
KNHC 081459
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM IGOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
1100 AM AST WED SEP 08 2010
THE LOW OVER THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN HAS BECOME
BETTER DEFINED AND DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER HAS PERSISTED
LONG ENOUGH FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BE CONSIDERED A TROPICAL CYCLONE. A
1042 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED WINDS OF 35 KT...AND THE INITIAL
INTENSITY WILL BE SET TO THAT VALUE. EASTERLY SHEAR IS PRESENT
OVER IGOR...BUT IS FORECAST TO LIGHTEN IN A DAY OR SO. ALL
RELIABLE MODELS SHOW INTENSIFICATION INTO A HURRICANE IN THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. BECAUSE OF THE SHEAR...THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST
WILL ONLY SHOW RELATIVELY SLOW STRENGTHENING...BELOW THE GUIDANCE
INITIALLY...BUT THE FORECAST ENDS UP CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS AT DAY
5. IF THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE PATTERN SEEN IN MOST OF THE GLOBAL
MODELS VERIFY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST COULD BE CONSERVATIVE IN THE
LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 265/7. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE A WESTWARD MOTION AT AN INCREASING
FORWARD SPEED. AT THE END OF THE PERIOD...A TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC COULD WEAKEN THE RIDGE...FORCING THE STORM TO MOVE
MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME SHORT-TERM
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW IGOR WILL INTERACT WITH THE LARGE CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE STORM. THE NHC FORECAST IS NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 08/1500Z 13.7N 23.5W 35 KT
12HR VT 09/0000Z 13.7N 24.6W 40 KT
24HR VT 09/1200Z 13.8N 26.6W 45 KT
36HR VT 10/0000Z 14.0N 29.0W 50 KT
48HR VT 10/1200Z 14.5N 31.5W 55 KT
72HR VT 11/1200Z 15.5N 36.5W 65 KT
96HR VT 12/1200Z 16.8N 41.2W 75 KT
120HR VT 13/1200Z 18.0N 46.0W 85 KT
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/PASCH
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM IGOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
1100 AM AST WED SEP 08 2010
THE LOW OVER THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN HAS BECOME
BETTER DEFINED AND DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER HAS PERSISTED
LONG ENOUGH FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BE CONSIDERED A TROPICAL CYCLONE. A
1042 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED WINDS OF 35 KT...AND THE INITIAL
INTENSITY WILL BE SET TO THAT VALUE. EASTERLY SHEAR IS PRESENT
OVER IGOR...BUT IS FORECAST TO LIGHTEN IN A DAY OR SO. ALL
RELIABLE MODELS SHOW INTENSIFICATION INTO A HURRICANE IN THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. BECAUSE OF THE SHEAR...THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST
WILL ONLY SHOW RELATIVELY SLOW STRENGTHENING...BELOW THE GUIDANCE
INITIALLY...BUT THE FORECAST ENDS UP CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS AT DAY
5. IF THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE PATTERN SEEN IN MOST OF THE GLOBAL
MODELS VERIFY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST COULD BE CONSERVATIVE IN THE
LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 265/7. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE A WESTWARD MOTION AT AN INCREASING
FORWARD SPEED. AT THE END OF THE PERIOD...A TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC COULD WEAKEN THE RIDGE...FORCING THE STORM TO MOVE
MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME SHORT-TERM
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW IGOR WILL INTERACT WITH THE LARGE CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE STORM. THE NHC FORECAST IS NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 08/1500Z 13.7N 23.5W 35 KT
12HR VT 09/0000Z 13.7N 24.6W 40 KT
24HR VT 09/1200Z 13.8N 26.6W 45 KT
36HR VT 10/0000Z 14.0N 29.0W 50 KT
48HR VT 10/1200Z 14.5N 31.5W 55 KT
72HR VT 11/1200Z 15.5N 36.5W 65 KT
96HR VT 12/1200Z 16.8N 41.2W 75 KT
120HR VT 13/1200Z 18.0N 46.0W 85 KT
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/PASCH
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Re: ATL : IGOR - Advisories
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IGOR INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
200 PM AST WED SEP 08 2010
...IGOR BRINGING SQUALLY WEATHER TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...
SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.7N 23.7W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM S OF PRAIA IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...INCLUDING MAIO...SAO TIAGO...
FOGO...AND BRAVA
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO
24 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IGOR WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 23.7 WEST. IGOR IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH SOME INCREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF IGOR
SHOULD PASS SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS BY TOMORROW.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WINDS... TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS LATER TODAY AND OVERNIGHT.
RAINFALL...IGOR COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/PASCH
TROPICAL STORM IGOR INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
200 PM AST WED SEP 08 2010
...IGOR BRINGING SQUALLY WEATHER TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...
SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.7N 23.7W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM S OF PRAIA IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...INCLUDING MAIO...SAO TIAGO...
FOGO...AND BRAVA
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO
24 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IGOR WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 23.7 WEST. IGOR IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH SOME INCREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF IGOR
SHOULD PASS SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS BY TOMORROW.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WINDS... TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS LATER TODAY AND OVERNIGHT.
RAINFALL...IGOR COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/PASCH
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SouthFLTropics
- Category 5
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Re: ATL: IGOR - Advisories
000
WTNT21 KNHC 082037
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM IGOR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
2100 UTC WED SEP 08 2010
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...INCLUDING MAIO...SAO TIAGO...
FOGO...AND BRAVA
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO
24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 23.9W AT 08/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 5 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 45SE 45SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 45SE 45SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 23.9W AT 08/2100Z
AT 08/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 23.7W
FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 14.0N 24.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 45SE 45SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 14.7N 26.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 45NE 45SE 45SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 15.5N 29.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 45SE 30SW 45NW.
FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 16.3N 32.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 35NE 30SE 30SW 35NW.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 45SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 17.0N 37.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 35SE 35SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 60SW 90NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 17.5N 42.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 18.5N 47.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.9N 23.9W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0300Z
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/PASCH
WTNT21 KNHC 082037
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM IGOR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
2100 UTC WED SEP 08 2010
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...INCLUDING MAIO...SAO TIAGO...
FOGO...AND BRAVA
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO
24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 23.9W AT 08/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 5 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 45SE 45SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 45SE 45SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 23.9W AT 08/2100Z
AT 08/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 23.7W
FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 14.0N 24.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 45SE 45SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 14.7N 26.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 45NE 45SE 45SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 15.5N 29.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 45SE 30SW 45NW.
FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 16.3N 32.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 35NE 30SE 30SW 35NW.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 45SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 17.0N 37.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 35SE 35SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 60SW 90NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 17.5N 42.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 18.5N 47.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.9N 23.9W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0300Z
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/PASCH
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Personal Storm History: David 79, Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05, Matthew 16, Irma 17
Personal Storm History: David 79, Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05, Matthew 16, Irma 17
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Re: ATL: IGOR - Advisories
000
WTNT31 KNHC 082037
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IGOR ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
500 PM AST WED SEP 08 2010
...IGOR CREEPING WESTWARD...SLIGHTLY STRONGER...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.9N 23.9W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM SSW OF PRAIA IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...INCLUDING MAIO...SAO TIAGO...
FOGO...AND BRAVA.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO
24 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IGOR WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 23.9 WEST. IGOR IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF IGOR IS EXPECTED
TO PASS SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND IGOR COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY THE
WEEKEND.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WINDS... TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
RAINFALL...IGOR COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/PASCH
WTNT31 KNHC 082037
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IGOR ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
500 PM AST WED SEP 08 2010
...IGOR CREEPING WESTWARD...SLIGHTLY STRONGER...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.9N 23.9W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM SSW OF PRAIA IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...INCLUDING MAIO...SAO TIAGO...
FOGO...AND BRAVA.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO
24 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IGOR WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 23.9 WEST. IGOR IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF IGOR IS EXPECTED
TO PASS SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND IGOR COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY THE
WEEKEND.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WINDS... TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
RAINFALL...IGOR COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/PASCH
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cycloneye
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- Posts: 139067
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
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Re: ATL: IGOR - Advisories
000
WTNT41 KNHC 082038
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM IGOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
500 PM AST WED SEP 08 2010
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE LOCATED TO THE WEST OF
THE CENTER...A SYMPTOM OF EASTERLY SHEAR. HIGH-RESOLUTION ASCAT
DATA EARLIER INDICATED PEAK WINDS OF 35-40 KT...AND WITH SATELLITE
CLASSIFICATIONS INCREASING...THE WIND SPEED IS RAISED TO 40 KT.
AN UNCERTAIN ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/5. THE
MOTION HAS SLOWED SIGNIFICANTLY...POSSIBLY DUE TO THE LOW PRESSURE
AREA APPROACHING THE NORTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THE GLOBAL
MODELS ARE SHOWING A DIFFERENT SCENARIO IN THE SHORT-TERM AND HAVE
TRENDED TOWARD THE 00/12Z ECMWF SOLUTIONS. AS THE SMALL LOW TO
THE NORTHEAST OF IGOR MOVES WESTWARD...THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN SLIGHTLY...WHICH ALLOWS IGOR TO MOVE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST
OR EVEN NORTHWEST BRIEFLY. AFTERWARDS...THE RIDGE RESTRENGTHENS...
WHICH SHOULD TURN IGOR WESTWARD AGAIN. THE NHC FORECAST IS
SHIFTED TO THE NORTH TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INTERACTION OF THE TWO
SYSTEMS AND THE NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE MODELS...BUT STILL LIES
ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE ENVELOPE.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST...AT LEAST IN THE SHORT-TERM...SEEMS TRICKY
WITH IGOR ONLY ABOUT 210 NM SOUTHWEST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW.
THERE CERTAINLY IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SORT OF INTERACTION THAT
COULD SLOW THE STRENGTHENING PROCESS. THUS THE INTENSITY FORECAST
WILL ONLY SHOW SLOW INTENSIFICATION IN THE SHORT-TERM...GENERALLY A
LITTLE LOWER THAN THE MODELS. IN THE LONGER-RANGE...THERE IS
PLENTY OF WARM WATER AND LIGHT SHEAR FORECAST IN THE PATH OF
IGOR...WHICH WOULD PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LARGE AND POWERFUL
HURRICANE. THE NHC FORECAST IS INCREASED FROM THE PREVIOUS
ONE...CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS...AND STILL MIGHT BE CONSERVATIVE AT
THE END. HOWEVER...WITH THE TRACK FORECAST SHIFTING NORTHWARD... I
AM HESITANT TO FORECAST A MUCH STRONGER HURRICANE AT THIS TIME.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 08/2100Z 13.9N 23.9W 40 KT
12HR VT 09/0600Z 14.0N 24.8W 45 KT
24HR VT 09/1800Z 14.7N 26.5W 50 KT
36HR VT 10/0600Z 15.5N 29.1W 55 KT
48HR VT 10/1800Z 16.3N 32.2W 60 KT
72HR VT 11/1800Z 17.0N 37.5W 70 KT
96HR VT 12/1800Z 17.5N 42.5W 80 KT
120HR VT 13/1800Z 18.5N 47.5W 90 KT
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/PASCH
WTNT41 KNHC 082038
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM IGOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
500 PM AST WED SEP 08 2010
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE LOCATED TO THE WEST OF
THE CENTER...A SYMPTOM OF EASTERLY SHEAR. HIGH-RESOLUTION ASCAT
DATA EARLIER INDICATED PEAK WINDS OF 35-40 KT...AND WITH SATELLITE
CLASSIFICATIONS INCREASING...THE WIND SPEED IS RAISED TO 40 KT.
AN UNCERTAIN ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/5. THE
MOTION HAS SLOWED SIGNIFICANTLY...POSSIBLY DUE TO THE LOW PRESSURE
AREA APPROACHING THE NORTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THE GLOBAL
MODELS ARE SHOWING A DIFFERENT SCENARIO IN THE SHORT-TERM AND HAVE
TRENDED TOWARD THE 00/12Z ECMWF SOLUTIONS. AS THE SMALL LOW TO
THE NORTHEAST OF IGOR MOVES WESTWARD...THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN SLIGHTLY...WHICH ALLOWS IGOR TO MOVE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST
OR EVEN NORTHWEST BRIEFLY. AFTERWARDS...THE RIDGE RESTRENGTHENS...
WHICH SHOULD TURN IGOR WESTWARD AGAIN. THE NHC FORECAST IS
SHIFTED TO THE NORTH TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INTERACTION OF THE TWO
SYSTEMS AND THE NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE MODELS...BUT STILL LIES
ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE ENVELOPE.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST...AT LEAST IN THE SHORT-TERM...SEEMS TRICKY
WITH IGOR ONLY ABOUT 210 NM SOUTHWEST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW.
THERE CERTAINLY IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SORT OF INTERACTION THAT
COULD SLOW THE STRENGTHENING PROCESS. THUS THE INTENSITY FORECAST
WILL ONLY SHOW SLOW INTENSIFICATION IN THE SHORT-TERM...GENERALLY A
LITTLE LOWER THAN THE MODELS. IN THE LONGER-RANGE...THERE IS
PLENTY OF WARM WATER AND LIGHT SHEAR FORECAST IN THE PATH OF
IGOR...WHICH WOULD PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LARGE AND POWERFUL
HURRICANE. THE NHC FORECAST IS INCREASED FROM THE PREVIOUS
ONE...CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS...AND STILL MIGHT BE CONSERVATIVE AT
THE END. HOWEVER...WITH THE TRACK FORECAST SHIFTING NORTHWARD... I
AM HESITANT TO FORECAST A MUCH STRONGER HURRICANE AT THIS TIME.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 08/2100Z 13.9N 23.9W 40 KT
12HR VT 09/0600Z 14.0N 24.8W 45 KT
24HR VT 09/1800Z 14.7N 26.5W 50 KT
36HR VT 10/0600Z 15.5N 29.1W 55 KT
48HR VT 10/1800Z 16.3N 32.2W 60 KT
72HR VT 11/1800Z 17.0N 37.5W 70 KT
96HR VT 12/1800Z 17.5N 42.5W 80 KT
120HR VT 13/1800Z 18.5N 47.5W 90 KT
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/PASCH
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139067
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ATL: IGOR - Advisories
000
WTNT31 KNHC 082345
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IGOR INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
800 PM AST WED SEP 08 2010
...IGOR MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD...
SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.9N 24.2W
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM SSE OF SAO FILIPE IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...INCLUDING MAIO...SAO TIAGO...
FOGO...AND BRAVA.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO
24 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IGOR WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 24.2 WEST. IGOR IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF IGOR IS EXPECTED
TO PASS SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS BY THURSDAY
EVENING.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND IGOR COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY THE WEEKEND.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM
FROM THE CENTER. DURING THE PAST HOUR...A SUSTAINED WIND OF
40 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH A GUST TO 52 MPH...83 KM/HR...WAS OBSERVED
DURING A BRIEF SQUALL AT SAL IN THE NORTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WINDS... TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
RAINFALL...IGOR COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART/MUSHER
WTNT31 KNHC 082345
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IGOR INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
800 PM AST WED SEP 08 2010
...IGOR MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD...
SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.9N 24.2W
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM SSE OF SAO FILIPE IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...INCLUDING MAIO...SAO TIAGO...
FOGO...AND BRAVA.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO
24 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IGOR WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 24.2 WEST. IGOR IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF IGOR IS EXPECTED
TO PASS SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS BY THURSDAY
EVENING.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND IGOR COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY THE WEEKEND.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM
FROM THE CENTER. DURING THE PAST HOUR...A SUSTAINED WIND OF
40 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH A GUST TO 52 MPH...83 KM/HR...WAS OBSERVED
DURING A BRIEF SQUALL AT SAL IN THE NORTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WINDS... TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
RAINFALL...IGOR COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART/MUSHER
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139067
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ATL: IGOR - Advisories
9
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IGOR ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
1100 PM AST WED SEP 08 2010
...IGOR CONTINUES MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.8N 24.6W
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM S OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...INCLUDING MAIO...SAO TIAGO...
FOGO...AND BRAVA.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO
24 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IGOR WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 24.6 WEST. IGOR IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF IGOR IS EXPECTED
TO PASS SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS BY THURSDAY
EVENING.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND IGOR COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY THE WEEKEND.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WINDS... TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
RAINFALL...IGOR COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/STEWART
000
WTNT41 KNHC 090257
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM IGOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
1100 PM AST WED SEP 08 2010
IGOR REMAINS A SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE MAIN CONVECTIVE CLOUD
MASS IS DISPLACED WEST OF THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER...
AND THERE IS A SHARP EASTERN EDGE TO THE CENTRAL CONVECTION. IN
ADDITION...THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME SOMEWHAT LESS ORGANIZED
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES
RECENTLY WARMING. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE AT 2.5 FROM
TAFB...AND THE 3-HOURLY AVERAGED ADT VALUE IS CLOSE TO 3.0. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE REPRESENTS A BLEND OF CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES AND IS UNCHANGED AT 40 KT. THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE TO
STRONG EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND THE ONGOING INTERACTION OF
IGOR WITH ANOTHER LOW LOCATED 150 N MI TO ITS NORTH IS EXPECTED TO
IMPEDE THE INTENSIFICATION OF THE CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO. BEYOND THAT TIME...THE CONSOLIDATION OF IGOR WITH THIS
FEATURE...AS WELL AS A REDUCTION IN THE EASTERLY SHEAR...SHOULD
RESULT IN A STEADY STRENGTHENING. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS CLOSE TO THE LGEM/SHIPS
STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL INTENSITY GUIDANCE.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/06. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY
REMAINS UNCHANGED. IN THE SHORT-TERM...GLOBAL MODELS SHOW IGOR
INTERACTING WITH AND ABSORBING THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A SLIGHTLY WEAKER SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO ITS NORTH AND TEMPORARILY IMPART A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION. FROM 24-96 HOURS...A RE-STRENGTHENING OF THE RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO CAUSE IGOR TO TURN MORE WESTWARD. AFTER 96 HOURS...IGOR
IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER A DEVELOPING WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AND TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...SIMILAR TO BUT NOT AS FAR NORTH
AS THE GFDL/HWRF SOLUTIONS. THE NHC OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE IN THE SHORT-TERM...BUT HAS BEEN
ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD IN LINE WITH THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS
AT LATER FORECAST PERIODS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 09/0300Z 13.8N 24.6W 40 KT
12HR VT 09/1200Z 14.3N 25.7W 45 KT
24HR VT 10/0000Z 15.1N 27.9W 50 KT
36HR VT 10/1200Z 15.8N 30.7W 55 KT
48HR VT 11/0000Z 16.4N 33.6W 60 KT
72HR VT 12/0000Z 17.0N 39.0W 75 KT
96HR VT 13/0000Z 18.0N 43.5W 85 KT
120HR VT 14/0000Z 19.5N 47.5W 90 KT
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/STEWART
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IGOR ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
1100 PM AST WED SEP 08 2010
...IGOR CONTINUES MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.8N 24.6W
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM S OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...INCLUDING MAIO...SAO TIAGO...
FOGO...AND BRAVA.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO
24 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IGOR WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 24.6 WEST. IGOR IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF IGOR IS EXPECTED
TO PASS SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS BY THURSDAY
EVENING.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND IGOR COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY THE WEEKEND.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WINDS... TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
RAINFALL...IGOR COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/STEWART
000
WTNT41 KNHC 090257
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM IGOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
1100 PM AST WED SEP 08 2010
IGOR REMAINS A SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE MAIN CONVECTIVE CLOUD
MASS IS DISPLACED WEST OF THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER...
AND THERE IS A SHARP EASTERN EDGE TO THE CENTRAL CONVECTION. IN
ADDITION...THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME SOMEWHAT LESS ORGANIZED
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES
RECENTLY WARMING. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE AT 2.5 FROM
TAFB...AND THE 3-HOURLY AVERAGED ADT VALUE IS CLOSE TO 3.0. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE REPRESENTS A BLEND OF CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES AND IS UNCHANGED AT 40 KT. THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE TO
STRONG EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND THE ONGOING INTERACTION OF
IGOR WITH ANOTHER LOW LOCATED 150 N MI TO ITS NORTH IS EXPECTED TO
IMPEDE THE INTENSIFICATION OF THE CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO. BEYOND THAT TIME...THE CONSOLIDATION OF IGOR WITH THIS
FEATURE...AS WELL AS A REDUCTION IN THE EASTERLY SHEAR...SHOULD
RESULT IN A STEADY STRENGTHENING. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS CLOSE TO THE LGEM/SHIPS
STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL INTENSITY GUIDANCE.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/06. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY
REMAINS UNCHANGED. IN THE SHORT-TERM...GLOBAL MODELS SHOW IGOR
INTERACTING WITH AND ABSORBING THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A SLIGHTLY WEAKER SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO ITS NORTH AND TEMPORARILY IMPART A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION. FROM 24-96 HOURS...A RE-STRENGTHENING OF THE RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO CAUSE IGOR TO TURN MORE WESTWARD. AFTER 96 HOURS...IGOR
IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER A DEVELOPING WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AND TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...SIMILAR TO BUT NOT AS FAR NORTH
AS THE GFDL/HWRF SOLUTIONS. THE NHC OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE IN THE SHORT-TERM...BUT HAS BEEN
ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD IN LINE WITH THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS
AT LATER FORECAST PERIODS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 09/0300Z 13.8N 24.6W 40 KT
12HR VT 09/1200Z 14.3N 25.7W 45 KT
24HR VT 10/0000Z 15.1N 27.9W 50 KT
36HR VT 10/1200Z 15.8N 30.7W 55 KT
48HR VT 11/0000Z 16.4N 33.6W 60 KT
72HR VT 12/0000Z 17.0N 39.0W 75 KT
96HR VT 13/0000Z 18.0N 43.5W 85 KT
120HR VT 14/0000Z 19.5N 47.5W 90 KT
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/STEWART
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Re: ATL: IGOR - Advisories
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IGOR INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
200 AM AST THU SEP 09 2010
...IGOR REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED...AND MOVING LITTLE.
SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.8N 24.8W
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...3 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...INCLUDING MAIO...SAO TIAGO...
FOGO...AND BRAVA.
THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IGOR WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 24.8 WEST. IGOR HAS
BEEN MEANDERING DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS BUT IT SHOULD BEGIN TO
MOVE TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR LATER TODAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF IGOR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GRADUALLY
AWAY FROM THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TODAY
BUT A SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST THEREAFTER....AND IGOR COULD
BECOME A HURRICANE BY THE WEEKEND.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WINDS... TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS TODAY. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE LATER
TODAY.
RAINFALL...IGOR COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
TROPICAL STORM IGOR INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
200 AM AST THU SEP 09 2010
...IGOR REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED...AND MOVING LITTLE.
SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.8N 24.8W
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...3 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...INCLUDING MAIO...SAO TIAGO...
FOGO...AND BRAVA.
THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IGOR WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 24.8 WEST. IGOR HAS
BEEN MEANDERING DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS BUT IT SHOULD BEGIN TO
MOVE TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR LATER TODAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF IGOR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GRADUALLY
AWAY FROM THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TODAY
BUT A SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST THEREAFTER....AND IGOR COULD
BECOME A HURRICANE BY THE WEEKEND.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WINDS... TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS TODAY. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE LATER
TODAY.
RAINFALL...IGOR COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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cycloneye
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- Posts: 139067
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- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
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Re: ATL: IGOR - Advisories
WTNT41 KNHC 090837
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM IGOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
500 AM AST THU SEP 09 2010
THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS DETERIORATED DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS AND
CONTINUES TO BE HIGHLY SHEARED. NEITHER SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES NOR ASCAT MEASUREMENTS SUPPORT TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DOWN TO 35 KNOTS AND THIS
ESTIMATE IS GENEROUS. IGOR COULD WEAKEN A LITTLE MORE TODAY BUT
GIVEN THAT THE CYCLONE STILL HAS A LARGE CIRCULATION AND IS MOVING
TOWARD A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF LOWER SHEAR AND WARMER
OCEAN...A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING COULD BEGIN IN 24 HOUR OR SO. IGOR
IS STILL FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN ABOUT 3 DAYS.
FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CENTER IS STILL
LOCATED SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS SUGGESTING THAT IGOR HAS
BEEN MEANDERING DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...THE LARGE
CIRCULATION SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST
LATER TODAY. THE STEERING PATTERN OVER THE ATLANTIC HAS BEEN QUITE
PERSISTENT AND CONSISTS OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
PART OF THE BASIN AND A BROAD TROUGH OSCILLATING BETWEEN THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES AND THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE BASIN. THIS
STEERING PATTERN WHICH IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO
CONTINUE...WOULD FAVOR A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION WITH AN INCREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AND THEN A TURN MORE TO
THE WEST-NORTHWEST BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TRACK
GUIDANCE DEPICTS THIS SCENARIO WHICH IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 09/0900Z 13.8N 24.3W 35 KT
12HR VT 09/1800Z 14.0N 25.3W 30 KT
24HR VT 10/0600Z 15.0N 28.0W 40 KT
36HR VT 10/1800Z 16.0N 31.0W 45 KT
48HR VT 11/0600Z 16.5N 34.0W 55 KT
72HR VT 12/0600Z 17.0N 40.0W 65 KT
96HR VT 13/0600Z 18.0N 44.5W 75 KT
120HR VT 14/0600Z 19.5N 49.0W 85 KT
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM IGOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
500 AM AST THU SEP 09 2010
THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS DETERIORATED DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS AND
CONTINUES TO BE HIGHLY SHEARED. NEITHER SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES NOR ASCAT MEASUREMENTS SUPPORT TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DOWN TO 35 KNOTS AND THIS
ESTIMATE IS GENEROUS. IGOR COULD WEAKEN A LITTLE MORE TODAY BUT
GIVEN THAT THE CYCLONE STILL HAS A LARGE CIRCULATION AND IS MOVING
TOWARD A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF LOWER SHEAR AND WARMER
OCEAN...A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING COULD BEGIN IN 24 HOUR OR SO. IGOR
IS STILL FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN ABOUT 3 DAYS.
FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CENTER IS STILL
LOCATED SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS SUGGESTING THAT IGOR HAS
BEEN MEANDERING DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...THE LARGE
CIRCULATION SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST
LATER TODAY. THE STEERING PATTERN OVER THE ATLANTIC HAS BEEN QUITE
PERSISTENT AND CONSISTS OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
PART OF THE BASIN AND A BROAD TROUGH OSCILLATING BETWEEN THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES AND THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE BASIN. THIS
STEERING PATTERN WHICH IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO
CONTINUE...WOULD FAVOR A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION WITH AN INCREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AND THEN A TURN MORE TO
THE WEST-NORTHWEST BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TRACK
GUIDANCE DEPICTS THIS SCENARIO WHICH IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 09/0900Z 13.8N 24.3W 35 KT
12HR VT 09/1800Z 14.0N 25.3W 30 KT
24HR VT 10/0600Z 15.0N 28.0W 40 KT
36HR VT 10/1800Z 16.0N 31.0W 45 KT
48HR VT 11/0600Z 16.5N 34.0W 55 KT
72HR VT 12/0600Z 17.0N 40.0W 65 KT
96HR VT 13/0600Z 18.0N 44.5W 75 KT
120HR VT 14/0600Z 19.5N 49.0W 85 KT
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139067
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ATL: IGOR - Advisories
WTNT31 KNHC 091131
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IGOR INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
800 AM AST THU SEP 09 2010
...IGOR A WEAK TROPICAL STORM...DRIFTING NORTHWARD...
SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.1N 24.2W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...INCLUDING MAIO...SAO TIAGO...
FOGO...AND BRAVA
THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IGOR WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 24.2 WEST. IGOR IS
DRIFTING NORTHWARD AT ABOUT 2 MPH...4 KM/HR. IGOR IS EXPECTED TO
TURN WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TODAY BUT SOME
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST TO BEGIN ON FRIDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM...
MAINLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WINDS... TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS TODAY. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO END LATER
TODAY.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BRENNAN
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IGOR INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
800 AM AST THU SEP 09 2010
...IGOR A WEAK TROPICAL STORM...DRIFTING NORTHWARD...
SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.1N 24.2W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...INCLUDING MAIO...SAO TIAGO...
FOGO...AND BRAVA
THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IGOR WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 24.2 WEST. IGOR IS
DRIFTING NORTHWARD AT ABOUT 2 MPH...4 KM/HR. IGOR IS EXPECTED TO
TURN WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TODAY BUT SOME
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST TO BEGIN ON FRIDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM...
MAINLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WINDS... TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS TODAY. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO END LATER
TODAY.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BRENNAN
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139067
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ATL: IGOR - Advisories
000
WTNT31 KNHC 091430
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IGOR ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
1100 AM AST THU SEP 09 2010
...IGOR NOW MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.7N 24.8W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...INCLUDING MAIO...SAO TIAGO...
FOGO...AND BRAVA
THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IGOR WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 24.8 WEST. IGOR IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR. A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85
KM...MAINLY TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WINDS...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THESE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BRENNAN
WTNT41 KNHC 091431
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM IGOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
1100 AM AST THU SEP 09 2010
DEEP CONVECTION FORMED NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF IGOR AROUND 1030
UTC...AND HAS EXPANDED SINCE THAT TIME. HOWEVER...THIS CONVECTION
REMAINS WEST OF THE CENTER DUE TO ABOUT 20 KT OF EASTERLY SHEAR
...AS SHOWN BY UW-CIMSS ANALYSES. ALTHOUGH AN ASCAT PASS AROUND
0000 UTC ONLY SHOWED MAXIMUM WINDS OF 25-30 KT...THE WINDS ARE
ASSUMED TO BE A LITTLE STRONGER NOW DUE TO THE INCREASE IN
CONVECTION. THEREFORE...IGOR WILL REMAIN A TROPICAL STORM WITH AN
INITIAL WIND SPEED ESTIMATE OF 35 KT. THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS THE
EASTERLY SHEAR DECREASING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS...COMBINED
WITH WARM WATERS AND A RELATIVELY MOIST ATMOSPHERE SHOULD ALLOW FOR
STEADY INTENSIFICATION. THE STATISTICAL AND DYNAMICAL INTENSITY
MODELS BRING IGOR TO HURRICANE STRENGTH IN ABOUT 3 DAYS AND SHOW
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING THEREAFTER. THE NHC OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS IN CLOSEST AGREEMENT WITH THE
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE.
IGOR HAS BEEN GENERALLY MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE LAST
SEVERAL HOURS...AND THE 6-HOUR INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 330/5.
HOWEVER...THE LAST FEW FEW VISIBLE IMAGES SUGGEST A SLIGHTLY FASTER
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. NOW THAT IGOR APPEARS TO HAVE ABSORBED THE
WEAK LOW THAT HAD BEEN IN ITS VICINITY...A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF IGOR SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE WESTWARD OR
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW IGOR NEARING A
CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROUGH WHICH SHOULD CAUSE A NORTHWESTWARD TURN.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED TO THE NORTH IN THE SHORT-TERM
DUE TO THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION...AND IS A LITTLE SLOWER AT
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS SUGGESTED BY THE GUIDANCE SUITE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 09/1500Z 14.7N 24.8W 35 KT
12HR VT 10/0000Z 15.0N 26.3W 35 KT
24HR VT 10/1200Z 15.8N 29.0W 40 KT
36HR VT 11/0000Z 16.4N 32.0W 50 KT
48HR VT 11/1200Z 16.7N 35.0W 60 KT
72HR VT 12/1200Z 17.3N 40.4W 70 KT
96HR VT 13/1200Z 18.5N 44.5W 80 KT
120HR VT 14/1200Z 20.0N 48.5W 85 KT
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BRENNAN
WTNT31 KNHC 091430
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IGOR ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
1100 AM AST THU SEP 09 2010
...IGOR NOW MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.7N 24.8W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...INCLUDING MAIO...SAO TIAGO...
FOGO...AND BRAVA
THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IGOR WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 24.8 WEST. IGOR IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR. A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85
KM...MAINLY TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WINDS...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THESE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BRENNAN
WTNT41 KNHC 091431
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM IGOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
1100 AM AST THU SEP 09 2010
DEEP CONVECTION FORMED NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF IGOR AROUND 1030
UTC...AND HAS EXPANDED SINCE THAT TIME. HOWEVER...THIS CONVECTION
REMAINS WEST OF THE CENTER DUE TO ABOUT 20 KT OF EASTERLY SHEAR
...AS SHOWN BY UW-CIMSS ANALYSES. ALTHOUGH AN ASCAT PASS AROUND
0000 UTC ONLY SHOWED MAXIMUM WINDS OF 25-30 KT...THE WINDS ARE
ASSUMED TO BE A LITTLE STRONGER NOW DUE TO THE INCREASE IN
CONVECTION. THEREFORE...IGOR WILL REMAIN A TROPICAL STORM WITH AN
INITIAL WIND SPEED ESTIMATE OF 35 KT. THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS THE
EASTERLY SHEAR DECREASING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS...COMBINED
WITH WARM WATERS AND A RELATIVELY MOIST ATMOSPHERE SHOULD ALLOW FOR
STEADY INTENSIFICATION. THE STATISTICAL AND DYNAMICAL INTENSITY
MODELS BRING IGOR TO HURRICANE STRENGTH IN ABOUT 3 DAYS AND SHOW
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING THEREAFTER. THE NHC OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS IN CLOSEST AGREEMENT WITH THE
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE.
IGOR HAS BEEN GENERALLY MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE LAST
SEVERAL HOURS...AND THE 6-HOUR INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 330/5.
HOWEVER...THE LAST FEW FEW VISIBLE IMAGES SUGGEST A SLIGHTLY FASTER
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. NOW THAT IGOR APPEARS TO HAVE ABSORBED THE
WEAK LOW THAT HAD BEEN IN ITS VICINITY...A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF IGOR SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE WESTWARD OR
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW IGOR NEARING A
CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROUGH WHICH SHOULD CAUSE A NORTHWESTWARD TURN.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED TO THE NORTH IN THE SHORT-TERM
DUE TO THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION...AND IS A LITTLE SLOWER AT
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS SUGGESTED BY THE GUIDANCE SUITE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 09/1500Z 14.7N 24.8W 35 KT
12HR VT 10/0000Z 15.0N 26.3W 35 KT
24HR VT 10/1200Z 15.8N 29.0W 40 KT
36HR VT 11/0000Z 16.4N 32.0W 50 KT
48HR VT 11/1200Z 16.7N 35.0W 60 KT
72HR VT 12/1200Z 17.3N 40.4W 70 KT
96HR VT 13/1200Z 18.5N 44.5W 80 KT
120HR VT 14/1200Z 20.0N 48.5W 85 KT
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BRENNAN
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: IGOR - Advisories
1734
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IGOR INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
200 PM AST THU SEP 09 2010
...IGOR MOVING ERRATICALLY...
SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 25.4W
ABOUT 65 MI...110 KM NW OF BRAVA IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...INCLUDING MAIO...SAO TIAGO...
FOGO...AND BRAVA
THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IGOR WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 25.4 WEST. IGOR IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM...
MAINLY TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WINDS...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THESE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BRENNAN
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IGOR INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
200 PM AST THU SEP 09 2010
...IGOR MOVING ERRATICALLY...
SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 25.4W
ABOUT 65 MI...110 KM NW OF BRAVA IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...INCLUDING MAIO...SAO TIAGO...
FOGO...AND BRAVA
THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IGOR WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 25.4 WEST. IGOR IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM...
MAINLY TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WINDS...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THESE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BRENNAN
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: IGOR - Advisories
WTNT31 KNHC 092038
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IGOR ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
500 PM AST THU SEP 09 2010
...IGOR WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 26.4W
ABOUT 155 MI...255 KM WNW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION IGOR
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 26.4 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR. A
TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BRENNAN
000
WTNT41 KNHC 092038
TCDAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IGOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
500 PM AST THU SEP 09 2010
THE DEEP CONVECTION THAT WAS LOCATED NEAR THE CENTER EARLIER TODAY
HAS ERODED AND NOW TAKES THE SHAPE OF A CURVED BAND OVER
THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE...SITUATED ABOUT 90 N MI WEST OF THE CENTER.
THIS ASYMMETRIC CONVECTIVE PATTERN IS DUE TO ABOUT 20-25 KT OF
EASTERLY SHEAR. SINCE THE CONVECTION IS WELL REMOVED FROM THE
CENTER AND BECAUSE EARLIER ASCAT DATA DID NOT SHOW WINDS OF
TROPICAL STORM FORCE...IGOR IS BEING DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION AT THIS TIME. ALTHOUGH IGOR HAS WEAKENED TODAY...
INTENSIFICATION IS STILL EXPECTED DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
SHIPS MODEL SHOWS THE SHEAR DECREASING SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS...IN COMBINATION WITH A RELATIVELY WARM
OCEAN AND MOIST ATMOSPHERE SHOULD ALLOW IGOR TO STRENGTHEN.
HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE WILL BE PASSING THROUGH AN AREA OF SLIGHTLY
COOLER SSTS IN A COUPLE DAYS...SO THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A
MORE GRADUAL STRENGTHENING THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT STILL MAKES
IGOR A HURRICANE IN 3 DAYS.
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BEEN RACING NORTHWESTWARD DURING
THE LAST FEW HOURS...AND IS NOW LOCATED NORTH OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. HOWEVER...A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN SOON AND PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A LOW-
TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF IGOR BECOMES
THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM. THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW IGOR
APPROACHING A LARGE BUT RATHER FLAT TROUGH IN 4 TO 5 DAYS...WHICH
SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD WITH A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED. THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED TO THE NORTH
IN THE SHORT-TERM BUT IS OTHERWISE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 09/2100Z 16.0N 26.4W 30 KT
12HR VT 10/0600Z 16.7N 27.9W 30 KT
24HR VT 10/1800Z 17.3N 30.8W 35 KT
36HR VT 11/0600Z 17.5N 33.9W 45 KT
48HR VT 11/1800Z 17.8N 36.8W 55 KT
72HR VT 12/1800Z 18.4N 41.9W 65 KT
96HR VT 13/1800Z 19.5N 46.0W 75 KT
120HR VT 14/1800Z 21.0N 49.0W 85 KT
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BRENNAN
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IGOR ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
500 PM AST THU SEP 09 2010
...IGOR WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 26.4W
ABOUT 155 MI...255 KM WNW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION IGOR
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 26.4 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR. A
TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BRENNAN
000
WTNT41 KNHC 092038
TCDAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IGOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
500 PM AST THU SEP 09 2010
THE DEEP CONVECTION THAT WAS LOCATED NEAR THE CENTER EARLIER TODAY
HAS ERODED AND NOW TAKES THE SHAPE OF A CURVED BAND OVER
THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE...SITUATED ABOUT 90 N MI WEST OF THE CENTER.
THIS ASYMMETRIC CONVECTIVE PATTERN IS DUE TO ABOUT 20-25 KT OF
EASTERLY SHEAR. SINCE THE CONVECTION IS WELL REMOVED FROM THE
CENTER AND BECAUSE EARLIER ASCAT DATA DID NOT SHOW WINDS OF
TROPICAL STORM FORCE...IGOR IS BEING DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION AT THIS TIME. ALTHOUGH IGOR HAS WEAKENED TODAY...
INTENSIFICATION IS STILL EXPECTED DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
SHIPS MODEL SHOWS THE SHEAR DECREASING SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS...IN COMBINATION WITH A RELATIVELY WARM
OCEAN AND MOIST ATMOSPHERE SHOULD ALLOW IGOR TO STRENGTHEN.
HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE WILL BE PASSING THROUGH AN AREA OF SLIGHTLY
COOLER SSTS IN A COUPLE DAYS...SO THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A
MORE GRADUAL STRENGTHENING THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT STILL MAKES
IGOR A HURRICANE IN 3 DAYS.
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BEEN RACING NORTHWESTWARD DURING
THE LAST FEW HOURS...AND IS NOW LOCATED NORTH OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. HOWEVER...A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN SOON AND PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A LOW-
TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF IGOR BECOMES
THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM. THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW IGOR
APPROACHING A LARGE BUT RATHER FLAT TROUGH IN 4 TO 5 DAYS...WHICH
SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD WITH A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED. THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED TO THE NORTH
IN THE SHORT-TERM BUT IS OTHERWISE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 09/2100Z 16.0N 26.4W 30 KT
12HR VT 10/0600Z 16.7N 27.9W 30 KT
24HR VT 10/1800Z 17.3N 30.8W 35 KT
36HR VT 11/0600Z 17.5N 33.9W 45 KT
48HR VT 11/1800Z 17.8N 36.8W 55 KT
72HR VT 12/1800Z 18.4N 41.9W 65 KT
96HR VT 13/1800Z 19.5N 46.0W 75 KT
120HR VT 14/1800Z 21.0N 49.0W 85 KT
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BRENNAN
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139067
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- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
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Re: ATL: IGOR - Advisories
000
WTNT31 KNHC 100234
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IGOR ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
1100 PM AST THU SEP 09 2010
...IGOR OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.4N 28.0W
ABOUT 245 MI...390 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION IGOR
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 28.0 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20
KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND IGOR COULD REGAIN TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH
BY SATURDAY.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/MUSHER
000
WTNT41 KNHC 100237
TCDAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IGOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
1100 PM AST THU SEP 09 2010
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE A BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER
THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF IGOR DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH
CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AS COLD AS -90 C. THIS BURSTING PATTERN
SUGGESTS THAT EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CONTINUES OVER
THE CYCLONE...AND THIS IS CONFIRMED BY UW-CIMSS SHEAR ANALYSES
SHOWING ABOUT 20 KT OF EASTERLY SHEAR. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
ARE AT 2.5/35 KT FROM TAFB...AND 3-HOURLY AVERAGED ADT VALUES ARE
CLOSE TO THIS VALUE. A STRICT INTERPRETATION OF THE SATELLITE
ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT IGOR MAY BE NEARING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH
AGAIN. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE LACK OF PERSISTENCE OF THE CURRENT
BURST OF CONVECTION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT FOR
THIS ADVISORY.
A REFORMATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER DURING THE LAST 12 HOURS HAS
MADE DISCERNING AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE MORE DIFFICULT THAN
NORMAL. GIVEN THE DISCONTINUITY IN CENTER FIXES...A LONGER-TERM
MOTION WAS COMPUTED AND YIELDS AN UNCERTAIN 295/11. GLOBAL
DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT IGOR WILL BE
STEERED ON A MORE WESTWARD TRACK AT A FASTER FORWARD SPEED BY THE
FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THROUGH ABOUT 72
HOURS. THEREAFTER...IGOR IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AND SLOW LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT APPROACHES
A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.
THE SPREAD IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS INCREASED THIS CYCLE IN
RESPONSE TO THE DIFFERENCES IN THE WAY MODELS HANDLE THE EVOLUTION
OF THIS WEAKNESS. THE REFORMATION OF THE CENTER AND A NOTABLE
SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD SHIFT TO THE GUIDANCE HAS PROMPTED A FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANT THE OFFICIAL NHC TRACK FORECAST IN THAT DIRECTION...
THOUGH THE TRACK FORECAST REMAINS ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
A CONTINUATION OF MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR SHOULD SLOW OR POSSIBLY
EVEN HALT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
SHIPS MODEL OUTPUT INDICATES A REDUCTION IN THE SHEAR...A FAIRLY
MOIST ATMOSPHERE...AND RELATIVELY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
AHEAD OF IGOR FROM 24-72 HOURS. THESE INGREDIENTS SHOULD FAVOR A
STEADIER RATE OF INTENSIFICATION DURING THAT TIME. THEREAFTER...THE
INTENSITY FORECAST BECOMES A BIT TRICKIER. THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE
INDICATES POSSIBLE NEGATIVE EFFECTS OF SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAKNESS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC WHILE SEVERAL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW LESS SHEAR. THE
OFFICIAL NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BIT LOWER EARLY IN THE PERIOD
GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS BUT REMAINS CLOSE TO BOTH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
AND THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL INTENSITY GUIDANCE. REGARDLESS OF THE
EXACT INTENSITY...GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT IGOR
WILL GROW IN SIZE...POTENTIALLY BECOMING A LARGE-SIZED HURRICANE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 10/0300Z 15.4N 28.0W 30 KT
12HR VT 10/1200Z 15.9N 30.0W 30 KT
24HR VT 11/0000Z 16.3N 33.1W 35 KT
36HR VT 11/1200Z 16.5N 36.1W 40 KT
48HR VT 12/0000Z 16.7N 39.0W 50 KT
72HR VT 13/0000Z 17.5N 44.0W 65 KT
96HR VT 14/0000Z 18.5N 48.0W 80 KT
120HR VT 15/0000Z 19.5N 50.5W 85 KT
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/MUSHER
WTNT31 KNHC 100234
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IGOR ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
1100 PM AST THU SEP 09 2010
...IGOR OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.4N 28.0W
ABOUT 245 MI...390 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION IGOR
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 28.0 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20
KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND IGOR COULD REGAIN TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH
BY SATURDAY.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/MUSHER
000
WTNT41 KNHC 100237
TCDAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IGOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
1100 PM AST THU SEP 09 2010
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE A BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER
THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF IGOR DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH
CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AS COLD AS -90 C. THIS BURSTING PATTERN
SUGGESTS THAT EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CONTINUES OVER
THE CYCLONE...AND THIS IS CONFIRMED BY UW-CIMSS SHEAR ANALYSES
SHOWING ABOUT 20 KT OF EASTERLY SHEAR. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
ARE AT 2.5/35 KT FROM TAFB...AND 3-HOURLY AVERAGED ADT VALUES ARE
CLOSE TO THIS VALUE. A STRICT INTERPRETATION OF THE SATELLITE
ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT IGOR MAY BE NEARING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH
AGAIN. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE LACK OF PERSISTENCE OF THE CURRENT
BURST OF CONVECTION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT FOR
THIS ADVISORY.
A REFORMATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER DURING THE LAST 12 HOURS HAS
MADE DISCERNING AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE MORE DIFFICULT THAN
NORMAL. GIVEN THE DISCONTINUITY IN CENTER FIXES...A LONGER-TERM
MOTION WAS COMPUTED AND YIELDS AN UNCERTAIN 295/11. GLOBAL
DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT IGOR WILL BE
STEERED ON A MORE WESTWARD TRACK AT A FASTER FORWARD SPEED BY THE
FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THROUGH ABOUT 72
HOURS. THEREAFTER...IGOR IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AND SLOW LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT APPROACHES
A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.
THE SPREAD IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS INCREASED THIS CYCLE IN
RESPONSE TO THE DIFFERENCES IN THE WAY MODELS HANDLE THE EVOLUTION
OF THIS WEAKNESS. THE REFORMATION OF THE CENTER AND A NOTABLE
SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD SHIFT TO THE GUIDANCE HAS PROMPTED A FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANT THE OFFICIAL NHC TRACK FORECAST IN THAT DIRECTION...
THOUGH THE TRACK FORECAST REMAINS ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
A CONTINUATION OF MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR SHOULD SLOW OR POSSIBLY
EVEN HALT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
SHIPS MODEL OUTPUT INDICATES A REDUCTION IN THE SHEAR...A FAIRLY
MOIST ATMOSPHERE...AND RELATIVELY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
AHEAD OF IGOR FROM 24-72 HOURS. THESE INGREDIENTS SHOULD FAVOR A
STEADIER RATE OF INTENSIFICATION DURING THAT TIME. THEREAFTER...THE
INTENSITY FORECAST BECOMES A BIT TRICKIER. THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE
INDICATES POSSIBLE NEGATIVE EFFECTS OF SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAKNESS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC WHILE SEVERAL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW LESS SHEAR. THE
OFFICIAL NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BIT LOWER EARLY IN THE PERIOD
GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS BUT REMAINS CLOSE TO BOTH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
AND THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL INTENSITY GUIDANCE. REGARDLESS OF THE
EXACT INTENSITY...GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT IGOR
WILL GROW IN SIZE...POTENTIALLY BECOMING A LARGE-SIZED HURRICANE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 10/0300Z 15.4N 28.0W 30 KT
12HR VT 10/1200Z 15.9N 30.0W 30 KT
24HR VT 11/0000Z 16.3N 33.1W 35 KT
36HR VT 11/1200Z 16.5N 36.1W 40 KT
48HR VT 12/0000Z 16.7N 39.0W 50 KT
72HR VT 13/0000Z 17.5N 44.0W 65 KT
96HR VT 14/0000Z 18.5N 48.0W 80 KT
120HR VT 15/0000Z 19.5N 50.5W 85 KT
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/MUSHER
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: IGOR - Advisories
000
WTNT31 KNHC 101454
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IGOR ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
1100 AM AST FRI SEP 10 2010
...IGOR REGAINS TROPICAL STORM STATUS OVER THE FAR EASTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 31.0W
ABOUT 465 MI...750 KM W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IGOR WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 31.0 WEST. IGOR IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND IGOR COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY SUNDAY.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...
MAINLY WEST OF THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
WTNT31 KNHC 101454
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IGOR ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
1100 AM AST FRI SEP 10 2010
...IGOR REGAINS TROPICAL STORM STATUS OVER THE FAR EASTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 31.0W
ABOUT 465 MI...750 KM W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IGOR WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 31.0 WEST. IGOR IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND IGOR COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY SUNDAY.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...
MAINLY WEST OF THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: IGOR - Advisories
000
WTNT41 KNHC 101455
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM IGOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
1100 AM AST FRI SEP 10 2010
IGOR REMAINS A SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONE. DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS...HOWEVER...THE SHEAR HAS BEGUN TO SHOW SIGNS OF ABATING AND
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS NOW FARTHER INTO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION. THE UPGRADE TO STORM STATUS IS BASED ON A
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 35 KT FROM TAFB AND A 47-KT
UW-CIMSS 3-HR AVERAGE ADT.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/14. THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION ARE
STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN DUE TO MULTIPLE CIRCULATIONS ROTATING
AROUND THE CENTER OF A LARGER CYCLONIC GYRE. HOWEVER...THE MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO BE BASICALLY WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 96 HOURS OR SO
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED
TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. BY DAY 5...A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH FORECAST
TO BE OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST IS FORECAST BY ALL OF THE GLOBAL
MODELS TO CREATE A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE BETWEEN 50W-60W LONGITUDE.
THIS IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE STEERING FLOW AND CAUSE IGOR TO SLOW
DOWN AND ALSO TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK
IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE TVCN MODEL CONSENSUS.
CURRENT SHEAR ANALYSES FROM SHIPS AND UW-CIMSS...ALONG WITH WATER
VAPOR WINDS...INDICATE THE VERTICAL SHEAR ACROSS IGOR HAS DECREASED
FROM 20 KT DOWN TO 10 KT DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. THIS DECEASING
SHEAR TENDENCY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS IGOR MOVES OVER GRADUALLY INCREASING SSTS...ESPECIALLY
AFTER 48 HOURS. THE RESULT SHOULD BE STEADY INTENSIFICATION WITH
IGOR POSSIBLY REACHING HURRICANE STATUS ON SUNDAY AND MAJOR
HURRICANE STATUS BY DAY 5...AS INDICATED BY THE SHIPS...GFDL...AND
HWRF MODELS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE BELOW THE
GUIDANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ABOUT WHEN IGOR WILL
DEVELOP A CONSOLIDATED CENTER OF CIRCULATION...BUT IS CLOSE TO THE
GUIDANCE THEREAFTER.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 10/1500Z 16.4N 31.0W 35 KT
12HR VT 11/0000Z 16.6N 33.2W 40 KT
24HR VT 11/1200Z 16.8N 36.2W 45 KT
36HR VT 12/0000Z 17.0N 39.2W 50 KT
48HR VT 12/1200Z 17.1N 41.7W 60 KT
72HR VT 13/1200Z 17.3N 46.2W 70 KT
96HR VT 14/1200Z 18.2N 50.3W 85 KT
120HR VT 15/1200Z 19.5N 53.5W 95 KT
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
WTNT41 KNHC 101455
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM IGOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
1100 AM AST FRI SEP 10 2010
IGOR REMAINS A SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONE. DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS...HOWEVER...THE SHEAR HAS BEGUN TO SHOW SIGNS OF ABATING AND
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS NOW FARTHER INTO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION. THE UPGRADE TO STORM STATUS IS BASED ON A
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 35 KT FROM TAFB AND A 47-KT
UW-CIMSS 3-HR AVERAGE ADT.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/14. THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION ARE
STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN DUE TO MULTIPLE CIRCULATIONS ROTATING
AROUND THE CENTER OF A LARGER CYCLONIC GYRE. HOWEVER...THE MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO BE BASICALLY WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 96 HOURS OR SO
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED
TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. BY DAY 5...A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH FORECAST
TO BE OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST IS FORECAST BY ALL OF THE GLOBAL
MODELS TO CREATE A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE BETWEEN 50W-60W LONGITUDE.
THIS IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE STEERING FLOW AND CAUSE IGOR TO SLOW
DOWN AND ALSO TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK
IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE TVCN MODEL CONSENSUS.
CURRENT SHEAR ANALYSES FROM SHIPS AND UW-CIMSS...ALONG WITH WATER
VAPOR WINDS...INDICATE THE VERTICAL SHEAR ACROSS IGOR HAS DECREASED
FROM 20 KT DOWN TO 10 KT DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. THIS DECEASING
SHEAR TENDENCY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS IGOR MOVES OVER GRADUALLY INCREASING SSTS...ESPECIALLY
AFTER 48 HOURS. THE RESULT SHOULD BE STEADY INTENSIFICATION WITH
IGOR POSSIBLY REACHING HURRICANE STATUS ON SUNDAY AND MAJOR
HURRICANE STATUS BY DAY 5...AS INDICATED BY THE SHIPS...GFDL...AND
HWRF MODELS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE BELOW THE
GUIDANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ABOUT WHEN IGOR WILL
DEVELOP A CONSOLIDATED CENTER OF CIRCULATION...BUT IS CLOSE TO THE
GUIDANCE THEREAFTER.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 10/1500Z 16.4N 31.0W 35 KT
12HR VT 11/0000Z 16.6N 33.2W 40 KT
24HR VT 11/1200Z 16.8N 36.2W 45 KT
36HR VT 12/0000Z 17.0N 39.2W 50 KT
48HR VT 12/1200Z 17.1N 41.7W 60 KT
72HR VT 13/1200Z 17.3N 46.2W 70 KT
96HR VT 14/1200Z 18.2N 50.3W 85 KT
120HR VT 15/1200Z 19.5N 53.5W 95 KT
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: IGOR - Advisories
000
WTNT41 KNHC 102044
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM IGOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
500 PM AST FRI SEP 10 2010
THE UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR THAT HAS BEEN PLAGUING IGOR FOR THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS HAS FINALLY STARTED TO ABATE AND CIRRUS OUTFLOW HAS
NOW BECOME PRONOUNCED IN ALL QUADRANTS. HOWEVER...SOME MID-LEVEL
SHEAR AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT IS STILL AFFECTING THE CYCLONE...
WHICH HAS RESULTED IN A VERY ASYMMETRIC CONVECTIVE CLOUD PATTERN
WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER DISPLACED AT LEAST 30 NMI TO THE EAST OF
THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS. INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 30 KT FROM SAB...55
KT FROM TAFB...AND UW-CIMSS 3-HR AVERAGE ADT VALUES OF 49 KT AND
AMSU ESTIMATES OF 53 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN
CONSERVATIVELY INCREASED TO 40 KT...WHICH WILL BE TOO LOW IF THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS ACTUALLY CLOSER TO THE DEEP CONVECTION.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/18. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS
TRACK FORECAST OR REASONING. IGOR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD...
ACCOMPANIED BY A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...FOR THE NEXT 96
HOURS AS THE CYCLONE MOVES ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE
AND STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SITUATED TO THE NORTH. BY DAY 5...A
BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST
AND CREATE A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES. THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE STEERING FLOW TO WEAKEN AND ALLOW
WHAT IS EXPECTED TO BE A LARGE HURRICANE IGOR AT THAT TIME TO
GRADUALLY TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS
MORE TIGHTLY PACKED AROUND THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK...ESPECIALLY AT
DAYS 4 AND 5. IN PARTICULAR...THE GFDL AND ECMWF SHOW LESS OF A
NORTHWARD TURN THAT MIGHT BE RELATED TO A FLATTER LONGWAVE TROUGH
IN THE LATEST GLOBAL RUNS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK REQUIRES
LITTLE CHANGE AND IS AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DECREASE TO 5 TO 10 KT
FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THIS FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT...IN
CONJUNCTION WITH SSTS INCREASING TO 29C BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...SHOULD RESULT IN STEADY INTENSIFICATION. IGOR IS EXPECTED
TO REACH HURRICANE STATUS BY SUNDAY AND MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS BY
DAYS 4 OR 5. THIS SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY THE SHIPS...LGEM...
HWRF...AND GFDL MODELS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 10/2100Z 16.7N 33.3W 40 KT
12HR VT 11/0600Z 16.8N 35.4W 45 KT
24HR VT 11/1800Z 17.1N 38.4W 50 KT
36HR VT 12/0600Z 17.2N 41.0W 60 KT
48HR VT 12/1800Z 17.3N 43.4W 70 KT
72HR VT 13/1800Z 17.7N 47.8W 80 KT
96HR VT 14/1800Z 18.7N 51.6W 90 KT
120HR VT 15/1800Z 20.0N 55.0W 105 KT
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
WTNT41 KNHC 102044
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM IGOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
500 PM AST FRI SEP 10 2010
THE UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR THAT HAS BEEN PLAGUING IGOR FOR THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS HAS FINALLY STARTED TO ABATE AND CIRRUS OUTFLOW HAS
NOW BECOME PRONOUNCED IN ALL QUADRANTS. HOWEVER...SOME MID-LEVEL
SHEAR AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT IS STILL AFFECTING THE CYCLONE...
WHICH HAS RESULTED IN A VERY ASYMMETRIC CONVECTIVE CLOUD PATTERN
WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER DISPLACED AT LEAST 30 NMI TO THE EAST OF
THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS. INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 30 KT FROM SAB...55
KT FROM TAFB...AND UW-CIMSS 3-HR AVERAGE ADT VALUES OF 49 KT AND
AMSU ESTIMATES OF 53 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN
CONSERVATIVELY INCREASED TO 40 KT...WHICH WILL BE TOO LOW IF THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS ACTUALLY CLOSER TO THE DEEP CONVECTION.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/18. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS
TRACK FORECAST OR REASONING. IGOR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD...
ACCOMPANIED BY A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...FOR THE NEXT 96
HOURS AS THE CYCLONE MOVES ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE
AND STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SITUATED TO THE NORTH. BY DAY 5...A
BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST
AND CREATE A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES. THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE STEERING FLOW TO WEAKEN AND ALLOW
WHAT IS EXPECTED TO BE A LARGE HURRICANE IGOR AT THAT TIME TO
GRADUALLY TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS
MORE TIGHTLY PACKED AROUND THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK...ESPECIALLY AT
DAYS 4 AND 5. IN PARTICULAR...THE GFDL AND ECMWF SHOW LESS OF A
NORTHWARD TURN THAT MIGHT BE RELATED TO A FLATTER LONGWAVE TROUGH
IN THE LATEST GLOBAL RUNS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK REQUIRES
LITTLE CHANGE AND IS AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DECREASE TO 5 TO 10 KT
FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THIS FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT...IN
CONJUNCTION WITH SSTS INCREASING TO 29C BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...SHOULD RESULT IN STEADY INTENSIFICATION. IGOR IS EXPECTED
TO REACH HURRICANE STATUS BY SUNDAY AND MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS BY
DAYS 4 OR 5. THIS SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY THE SHIPS...LGEM...
HWRF...AND GFDL MODELS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 10/2100Z 16.7N 33.3W 40 KT
12HR VT 11/0600Z 16.8N 35.4W 45 KT
24HR VT 11/1800Z 17.1N 38.4W 50 KT
36HR VT 12/0600Z 17.2N 41.0W 60 KT
48HR VT 12/1800Z 17.3N 43.4W 70 KT
72HR VT 13/1800Z 17.7N 47.8W 80 KT
96HR VT 14/1800Z 18.7N 51.6W 90 KT
120HR VT 15/1800Z 20.0N 55.0W 105 KT
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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Re: ATL: IGOR - Advisories
000
WTNT31 KNHC 110233
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IGOR ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
1100 PM AST FRI SEP 10 2010
...IGOR GRADUALLY INTENSIFYING OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.1N 34.9W
ABOUT 725 MI...1170 KM W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IGOR WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 34.9 WEST. IGOR IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/HR. A TURN TO
THE WEST AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE
WEEKEND.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS AND IGOR IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY SUNDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/MUSHER
000
WTNT41 KNHC 110234
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM IGOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
1100 PM AST FRI SEP 10 2010
CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT IGOR IS MAINTAINING A
BURSTING PATTERN...CHARACTERISTIC OF A SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONE.
THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER LIES NEAR THE NORTHEAST SIDE
OF A LARGE AND CIRCULAR CONVECTIVE MASS IN THIS IMAGERY...BUT
SEVERAL EARLIER MICROWAVE OVERPASSES INDICATED THE POSSIBILITY OF
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER LYING UNDERNEATH THE CONVECTION. AN EXPANDING
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS WELL ESTABLISHED IN ALL QUADRANTS EXCEPT TO
THE EAST. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE AT 3.0/45 KT AND 3.5/55
KT FROM SAB AND TAFB...AND THE LATEST 3-HOURLY AVERAGED ADT VALUE
IS 3.3. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO THE LOCATION OF THE
CENTER...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS INCREASED CONSERVATIVELY TO 45
KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 285/18 IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AND
REPRESENTS A LONGER-TERM AVERAGE...GIVEN DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE FIXES. THE FORECAST REASONING
REMAINS UNCHANGED. DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW IGOR MOVING ON A WESTWARD
COURSE ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE EAST
CENTRAL ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS. DURING THIS
PERIOD...THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT IGOR SHOULD
SLOW ITS FORWARD SPEED AND THEN TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD BEYOND 72
HOURS IN RESPONSE TO A LARGE BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE OFFICIAL NHC TRACK LIES NEAR
THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...BUT IS A BIT NORTH OF THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WHICH HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD THIS
CYCLE.
UW-CIMSS ANALYSES STILL INDICATE AROUND 15 KT OF NORTHEASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER IGOR...A LESS THAN IDEAL ENVIRONMENT FOR
INTENSIFICATION. THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES A
QUICK REDUCTION TO THE SHEAR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND A LOW
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT OVER GRADUALLY WARMER WATERS ARE LIKELY TO LEAD
TO A STEADIER STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE PRESENTS A DILEMMA LATER IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD...HOWEVER. THE STATISTICAL MODEL OUTPUT INDICATES POSSIBLE
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR RELATED TO THE LONGWAVE TROUGH FORECAST OVER
THE WEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC...AS DO A FEW OF THE GLOBAL DYNAMICAL
MODELS. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE HWRF AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS A
CONTINUATION OF THE LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND A STRONGER IGOR. THE
OFFICIAL NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS ABOUT THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS
ONE...EXCEPT SLIGHTLY REDUCED LATE IN THE PERIOD IN DEFERENCE TO
THE STATISTICAL MODELS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 11/0300Z 17.1N 34.9W 45 KT
12HR VT 11/1200Z 17.2N 37.2W 50 KT
24HR VT 12/0000Z 17.4N 40.1W 55 KT
36HR VT 12/1200Z 17.5N 42.8W 65 KT
48HR VT 13/0000Z 17.6N 45.3W 75 KT
72HR VT 14/0000Z 18.0N 49.5W 85 KT
96HR VT 15/0000Z 19.0N 53.0W 90 KT
120HR VT 16/0000Z 20.5N 56.0W 100 KT
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
WTNT31 KNHC 110233
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IGOR ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
1100 PM AST FRI SEP 10 2010
...IGOR GRADUALLY INTENSIFYING OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.1N 34.9W
ABOUT 725 MI...1170 KM W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IGOR WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 34.9 WEST. IGOR IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/HR. A TURN TO
THE WEST AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE
WEEKEND.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS AND IGOR IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY SUNDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/MUSHER
000
WTNT41 KNHC 110234
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM IGOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
1100 PM AST FRI SEP 10 2010
CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT IGOR IS MAINTAINING A
BURSTING PATTERN...CHARACTERISTIC OF A SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONE.
THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER LIES NEAR THE NORTHEAST SIDE
OF A LARGE AND CIRCULAR CONVECTIVE MASS IN THIS IMAGERY...BUT
SEVERAL EARLIER MICROWAVE OVERPASSES INDICATED THE POSSIBILITY OF
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER LYING UNDERNEATH THE CONVECTION. AN EXPANDING
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS WELL ESTABLISHED IN ALL QUADRANTS EXCEPT TO
THE EAST. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE AT 3.0/45 KT AND 3.5/55
KT FROM SAB AND TAFB...AND THE LATEST 3-HOURLY AVERAGED ADT VALUE
IS 3.3. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO THE LOCATION OF THE
CENTER...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS INCREASED CONSERVATIVELY TO 45
KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 285/18 IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AND
REPRESENTS A LONGER-TERM AVERAGE...GIVEN DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE FIXES. THE FORECAST REASONING
REMAINS UNCHANGED. DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW IGOR MOVING ON A WESTWARD
COURSE ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE EAST
CENTRAL ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS. DURING THIS
PERIOD...THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT IGOR SHOULD
SLOW ITS FORWARD SPEED AND THEN TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD BEYOND 72
HOURS IN RESPONSE TO A LARGE BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE OFFICIAL NHC TRACK LIES NEAR
THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...BUT IS A BIT NORTH OF THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WHICH HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD THIS
CYCLE.
UW-CIMSS ANALYSES STILL INDICATE AROUND 15 KT OF NORTHEASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER IGOR...A LESS THAN IDEAL ENVIRONMENT FOR
INTENSIFICATION. THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES A
QUICK REDUCTION TO THE SHEAR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND A LOW
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT OVER GRADUALLY WARMER WATERS ARE LIKELY TO LEAD
TO A STEADIER STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE PRESENTS A DILEMMA LATER IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD...HOWEVER. THE STATISTICAL MODEL OUTPUT INDICATES POSSIBLE
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR RELATED TO THE LONGWAVE TROUGH FORECAST OVER
THE WEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC...AS DO A FEW OF THE GLOBAL DYNAMICAL
MODELS. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE HWRF AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS A
CONTINUATION OF THE LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND A STRONGER IGOR. THE
OFFICIAL NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS ABOUT THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS
ONE...EXCEPT SLIGHTLY REDUCED LATE IN THE PERIOD IN DEFERENCE TO
THE STATISTICAL MODELS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 11/0300Z 17.1N 34.9W 45 KT
12HR VT 11/1200Z 17.2N 37.2W 50 KT
24HR VT 12/0000Z 17.4N 40.1W 55 KT
36HR VT 12/1200Z 17.5N 42.8W 65 KT
48HR VT 13/0000Z 17.6N 45.3W 75 KT
72HR VT 14/0000Z 18.0N 49.5W 85 KT
96HR VT 15/0000Z 19.0N 53.0W 90 KT
120HR VT 16/0000Z 20.5N 56.0W 100 KT
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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000
WTNT31 KNHC 110834
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IGOR ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
500 AM AST SAT SEP 11 2010
...IGOR NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.1N 37.8W
ABOUT 915 MI...1475 KM W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IGOR WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 37.8 WEST. IGOR IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 2 DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
AND IGOR WILL LIKELY BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB...29.38 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
WTNT31 KNHC 110834
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IGOR ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
500 AM AST SAT SEP 11 2010
...IGOR NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.1N 37.8W
ABOUT 915 MI...1475 KM W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IGOR WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 37.8 WEST. IGOR IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 2 DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
AND IGOR WILL LIKELY BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB...29.38 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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