ATL: KARL - Ex-Hurricane - Discussion

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HURAKAN
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Re:

#1421 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Sep 17, 2010 11:20 am

cyclonic chronic wrote:nhc totally nailed the track. wnw once it left the yucatan, w over the b.o.c., wsw right before landfall.they were predicting this 2 days ago. may not have been exactly where they thought it was gonna go 48 hr. ago, but the general synoptics were/are sound. now for the intensity, well idk if we'll ever get that down. too many variables.


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I wouldn't call this "totally nailing the track"
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#1422 Postby Blown Away » Fri Sep 17, 2010 11:21 am

HenkL wrote:Latest METAR report from Veracruz:
southern wind 30kt, gust 40kt, 997 mb


Southern wind? Is Veracruz E of the center now?

edit: east
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#1423 Postby Vortmax1 » Fri Sep 17, 2010 11:24 am

Great graphic Hurakan!
Thanks.
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#1424 Postby brunota2003 » Fri Sep 17, 2010 11:27 am

Is the Recon aircraft missing the area of lowest pressure, or is Karl falling apart rapidly? The last three VDMs went from 959 to 967 to 972?
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Re:

#1425 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 17, 2010 11:30 am

brunota2003 wrote:Is the Recon aircraft missing the area of lowest pressure, or is Karl falling apart rapidly? The last three VDMs went from 959 to 967 to 972?



Part of the circulation is already over the 18,000 feet mountains so is weakening.
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#1426 Postby artist » Fri Sep 17, 2010 11:31 am

the winds are blowing hard and steady in Veracruz. They just showed it on their tv station.
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#1427 Postby Vortmax1 » Fri Sep 17, 2010 11:31 am

Is the Recon aircraft missing the area of lowest pressure, or is Karl falling apart rapidly? The last three VDMs went from 959 to 967 to 972?



They can only sample what is still offshore...a lot of the circulation is already inland.
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Re: Re:

#1428 Postby brunota2003 » Fri Sep 17, 2010 11:32 am

cycloneye wrote:
brunota2003 wrote:Is the Recon aircraft missing the area of lowest pressure, or is Karl falling apart rapidly? The last three VDMs went from 959 to 967 to 972?



Part of the circulation is already over the 18,000 feet mountains so is weakening.

Ah...he ran out of room to roam. That is good, though...hopefully he will weaken at least a little before finally coming ashore
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Re: ATL: KARL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1429 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Sep 17, 2010 11:33 am

Image

Latest
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Re:

#1430 Postby brunota2003 » Fri Sep 17, 2010 11:34 am

Vortmax1 wrote:
Is the Recon aircraft missing the area of lowest pressure, or is Karl falling apart rapidly? The last three VDMs went from 959 to 967 to 972?



They can only sample what is still offshore...a lot of the circulation is already inland.

While true, unless he has made landfall or the pressure center itself has shifted, they should be able to make a center fix...once they can no longer do that, they'll go home.
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#1431 Postby Vortmax1 » Fri Sep 17, 2010 11:38 am

Based on Hurakan's latest graphic I would say that is landfall so I doubt if you're going to get much more out of RECON on this one.
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#1432 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Sep 17, 2010 11:48 am

Image

model and track verification = fail! lol
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#1433 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Sep 17, 2010 11:49 am

Image

largest hurricane wind field ever!!! lol fail
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Re: ATL: KARL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1434 Postby Brent » Fri Sep 17, 2010 12:05 pm

HURRICANE KARL TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010
1200 PM CDT FRI SEP 17 2010

...KARL MAKES LANDFALL ON THE SOUTHWEST GULF COAST OF MEXICO...

MEXICAN RADAR OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE
CENTER OF HURRICANE KARL MADE LANDFALL ON THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF
MEXICO ABOUT 10 MILES...15 KM...NORTH OF VERACRUZ MEXICO NEAR 1130
AM CDT...1630 UTC. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS AT LANDFALL WERE
ESTIMATED TO BE 115 MPH...185 KM/HR.

SUMMARY OF 1130 AM CDT...1630 UTC...INFORMATION
--------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.3N 96.2W
ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM N OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...29.82 INCHES

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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Re: ATL: KARL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1435 Postby littlevince » Fri Sep 17, 2010 12:13 pm

Image

Image
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Re: ATL: KARL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1436 Postby blazess556 » Fri Sep 17, 2010 12:14 pm

Station VERV4 - Veracruz Harbor, Mexico recorded a gust of 82 knots at 11:33 am cdt.
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#1437 Postby Chacor » Fri Sep 17, 2010 12:18 pm

So it looks like Karl actually weakened before landfall, from 105 to 100 knots.
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#1438 Postby Vortmax1 » Fri Sep 17, 2010 12:20 pm

The eye of Karl was only eight nautical miles across at landfall.
Landfall was 10 miles North of Veracruz...sounds like a bumpy ride for those people.
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#1439 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Sep 17, 2010 12:29 pm

976mb and 100 kt? That seems unlikely. I would guess about 90 kt for landfall intensity.
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#1440 Postby Chacor » Fri Sep 17, 2010 12:30 pm

At this point the last report out of MMVR (Veracruz) was at 1654 UTC. South wind, 46 mph, gusts to 58 mph, 997 mbar.
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