ATL: KARL - Models

[South Texas Storms]

thats still him down there in 108 hours!? anything coming that could pick him up or make a final landfall?

[ROCK]

thats still him down there in 108 hours!? anything coming that could pick him up or make a final landfall?

nah at 114hr he decides he has enough flowers and moves into MX....big ole high sitting over NGOM pushes him out.....

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_114l.gif

[dwsqos2]

Uh...this is one of those situations in which it is helpful to look at other levels of the atmosphere. The 500 mb and 850 mb circulations appear to be near or on the coast at hour 84 and completely inland by hour 90.

[ROCK]

Uh...this is one of those situations in which it is helpful to look at other levels of the atmosphere. The 500 mb and 850 mb circulations appear to be near or on the coast at hour 84 and completely inland by hour 90.

I am looking at the surface maps not upper air....but for the sake of looking...here is 108hr...

850mb
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... v_108l.gif

smidge of some voracity down there.

500mb

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_108l.gif

[HURAKAN]

Code: Select all

855
WHXX01 KWBC 151243
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1243 UTC WED SEP 15 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
TROPICAL CYCLONE KARL (AL132010) 20100915 1200 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100915  1200   100916  0000   100916  1200   100917  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    18.5N  87.6W   19.0N  89.4W   19.5N  91.2W   19.9N  92.5W
BAMD    18.5N  87.6W   19.1N  89.8W   19.6N  91.6W   20.0N  93.2W
BAMM    18.5N  87.6W   19.3N  89.6W   19.9N  91.4W   20.6N  92.9W
LBAR    18.5N  87.6W   19.2N  90.1W   20.3N  92.4W   21.4N  94.3W
SHIP        55KTS          68KTS          80KTS          89KTS
DSHP        55KTS          37KTS          46KTS          55KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100917  1200   100918  1200   100919  1200   100920  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    20.1N  93.7W   20.5N  95.5W   21.3N  98.8W   22.1N 103.2W
BAMD    20.0N  94.3W   19.7N  96.5W   19.6N  99.9W   20.9N 104.3W
BAMM    20.9N  94.0W   21.2N  96.3W   21.5N 100.1W   22.5N 104.8W
LBAR    22.3N  96.2W   23.8N  99.3W   24.8N 102.3W   25.7N 105.1W
SHIP        98KTS         107KTS         100KTS          90KTS
DSHP        64KTS          49KTS          29KTS          27KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  18.5N LONCUR =  87.6W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR =  12KT
LATM12 =  18.3N LONM12 =  85.0W DIRM12 = 275DEG SPDM12 =  12KT
LATM24 =  17.6N LONM24 =  82.3W
WNDCUR =   55KT RMAXWD =   10NM WNDM12 =   40KT
CENPRS =  991MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD =  120NM SDEPTH =   D
RD34NE =   45NM RD34SE =   30NM RD34SW =   30NM RD34NW =  45NM
 
$$
NNNN

[KWT]

Better start gaining latitude very soon if the models are to be right, they do seem to be in very good agreement though unlike they were with Alex.

[HURAKAN]

HWRF

[Wx_Warrior]

Looks to be another good job by the EURO and others.

[tailgater]

Nam won't give it up, keeps trying to bring it nortward. Do yall still need the rain?
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[South Texas Storms]

hmmm jb could be right. nam,cmc, and HWRF are showing a landfall north of tampico while the others still say south of there. could go either way.

[South Texas Storms]

Nam won't give it up, keeps trying to bring it nortward. Do yall still need the rain?
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

yes please tailgater!
im tired of sweating all day everyday!

[frederic79]

Just looked at the latest model graphics at wunderground.com and if these are truly up-to-date, the GFDL, NGFDL and UKMET, for whatever its worth, either keep Karl over water or bring Karl back into the gulf heading NNE over some really warm water. Are these actually the latest?

[Tstormwatcher]

Just looked at the latest model graphics at wunderground.com and if these are truly up-to-date, the GFDL, NGFDL and UKMET, for whatever its worth, either keep Karl over water or bring Karl back into the gulf heading NNE over some really warm water. Are these actually the latest?

Do you have a link? I just checked and only the UKMET shows it entering mexico and then turning NE.

[frederic79]

I'm using an old Mac but you saw what I saw... it still indicates a second landfall somewhere on the US gulf coast. Just one model, though.

[Tstormwatcher]

I never give credance to just one model.

[artist]

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1847 UTC FRI SEP 17 2010

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE KARL (AL132010) 20100917 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100917 1800 100918 0600 100918 1800 100919 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 19.2N 96.4W 19.4N 97.6W 19.8N 99.1W 20.3N 100.6W
BAMD 19.2N 96.4W 19.1N 98.2W 19.0N 100.3W 19.2N 102.6W
BAMM 19.2N 96.4W 19.6N 97.7W 19.8N 99.3W 20.3N 101.2W
LBAR 19.2N 96.4W 19.2N 97.9W 19.5N 99.9W 19.9N 102.2W
SHIP 90KTS 87KTS 88KTS 88KTS
DSHP 90KTS 49KTS 34KTS 29KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100919 1800 100920 1800 100921 1800 100922 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 21.0N 102.5W 22.5N 106.6W 23.3N 110.8W 23.7N 114.8W
BAMD 19.8N 104.8W 21.0N 109.4W 21.4N 113.9W 20.6N 118.6W
BAMM 20.9N 103.2W 22.5N 107.6W 23.2N 111.7W 23.4N 116.0W
LBAR 20.4N 104.4W 21.4N 108.7W 22.5N 112.4W 23.3N 115.9W
SHIP 90KTS 89KTS 84KTS 78KTS
DSHP 27KTS 27KTS 27KTS 27KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 19.2N LONCUR = 96.4W DIRCUR = 250DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 19.7N LONM12 = 94.9W DIRM12 = 266DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 19.6N LONM24 = 93.3W
WNDCUR = 90KT RMAXWD = 5NM WNDM12 = 95KT
CENPRS = 979MB OUTPRS = 1007MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 80NM RD34SE = 70NM RD34SW = 50NM RD34NW = 80NM

WHXX01 KWBC 171831

CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1847 UTC FRI SEP 17 2010

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE KARL (AL132010) 20100917 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100917 1800 100918 0600 100918 1800 100919 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 19.2N 96.4W 19.4N 97.6W 19.8N 99.1W 20.3N 100.6W
BAMD 19.2N 96.4W 19.1N 98.2W 19.0N 100.3W 19.2N 102.6W
BAMM 19.2N 96.4W 19.6N 97.7W 19.8N 99.3W 20.3N 101.2W
LBAR 19.2N 96.4W 19.2N 97.9W 19.5N 99.9W 19.9N 102.2W
SHIP 90KTS 87KTS 88KTS 88KTS
DSHP 90KTS 49KTS 34KTS 29KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100919 1800 100920 1800 100921 1800 100922 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 21.0N 102.5W 22.5N 106.6W 23.3N 110.8W 23.7N 114.8W
BAMD 19.8N 104.8W 21.0N 109.4W 21.4N 113.9W 20.6N 118.6W
BAMM 20.9N 103.2W 22.5N 107.6W 23.2N 111.7W 23.4N 116.0W
LBAR 20.4N 104.4W 21.4N 108.7W 22.5N 112.4W 23.3N 115.9W
SHIP 90KTS 89KTS 84KTS 78KTS
DSHP 27KTS 27KTS 27KTS 27KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 19.2N LONCUR = 96.4W DIRCUR = 250DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 19.7N LONM12 = 94.9W DIRM12 = 266DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 19.6N LONM24 = 93.3W
WNDCUR = 90KT RMAXWD = 5NM WNDM12 = 95KT
CENPRS = 979MB OUTPRS = 1007MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 80NM RD34SE = 70NM RD34SW = 50NM RD34NW = 80NM

WHXX01 KWBC 171831

CHGHUR