ATL: KARL - Models

[cycloneye]

All models here. First plots by BAMS shortly.

[Vortex]

6Z Nogaps...Hit on Haiti then central Cuba


https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[Vortex]

00Z Canadian Southern Bahamas then west across Cuba



http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... cal168.gif

[KWT]

The CMC looks like a real strange solution, it lifts up real quickly then shoots it near due west. The broad pattern is the same as the GFS/ECM but its gains way more latitude in the early part of the run then those two models.

Interestingly Gustav got going in a region close to where 92L is right now as well, tracked WNW and then developed around 65W.

[Vortex]

I agree but the NAM and CMC the first on this system haven't budged from this solution...Probably an outlier but the forecasted pattern the next 24-72 does give merit to the cmc and even nam solution.

[hurricaneCW]

The NAM solution would completely change the dynamics of what we could be dealing with. Actually if the NAM is right, then this disturbance would probably go out to sea after coming near Puerto Rico.

[cycloneye]

First Tropical Model plots

Wow!! SHIP goes bunkers.

Code: Select all

 
WHXX01 KWBC 091230
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1230 UTC THU SEP 9 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922010) 20100909 1200 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100909  1200   100910  0000   100910  1200   100911  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    12.2N  60.4W   12.4N  60.8W   12.5N  61.5W   12.8N  62.5W
BAMD    12.2N  60.4W   12.3N  61.2W   12.6N  62.5W   13.0N  64.2W
BAMM    12.2N  60.4W   12.3N  61.0W   12.3N  62.0W   12.5N  63.4W
LBAR    12.2N  60.4W   12.5N  61.2W   13.0N  62.5W   13.7N  64.0W
SHIP        20KTS          26KTS          34KTS          46KTS
DSHP        20KTS          26KTS          34KTS          46KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100911  1200   100912  1200   100913  1200   100914  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    13.0N  63.7W   13.8N  66.9W   14.9N  70.4W   16.8N  74.1W
BAMD    13.4N  66.2W   13.9N  71.2W   14.0N  76.5W   13.6N  81.6W
BAMM    12.7N  65.1W   13.2N  68.9W   13.7N  72.7W   14.8N  76.3W
LBAR    14.4N  66.0W   16.2N  70.8W   17.7N  75.8W   19.2N  79.8W
SHIP        58KTS          76KTS          88KTS         101KTS
DSHP        58KTS          76KTS          88KTS         101KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  12.2N LONCUR =  60.4W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR =   5KT
LATM12 =  12.0N LONM12 =  59.3W DIRM12 = 281DEG SPDM12 =   5KT
LATM24 =  11.8N LONM24 =  58.3W
WNDCUR =   20KT RMAXWD =   40NM WNDM12 =   20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD =   90NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 
$$


[Scorpion]

When is the NAM ever right?? It is a completely worthless tropical model.

[HurricaneBelle]

When is the NAM ever right?? It is a completely worthless tropical model.

It sniffed out Hermine.

[KWT]

Yeah to be fair to the NAM it did do a decent job with Hermine.

Those SHIPS sure look pretty worrying, they show a decent set-up aloft which is confirmed by the global models though they don't really get this going till the W.Caribbean.

The NAM/CMC solutions aren't that unrealistic by the way, but I do think those two models are a little on the northern side of whats likely.

[perk]

Gonna be an interesting weekend to say the least.

[Chacor]

SHIPS-LGEM model intensity forecast is slightly under the regular SHIPS model but still takes it to 94 knots at five days:

Code: Select all

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    20    22    26    29    34    46    58    68    76    82    88    94   101
V (KT) LAND       20    22    26    29    34    46    58    68    76    82    88    94   101
V (KT) LGE mod    20    21    22    24    26    32    39    49    59    71    81    89    94


The forecast shear to be highest in around 4-5 days:

Code: Select all

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
SHEAR (KT)        11    15    14    12    11    14    15    19    16    19    16    22    15

And sea-surface temps consistent over 29°C (84°F) all the way:

Code: Select all

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
SST (C)         29.7  29.7  29.6  29.6  29.5  29.4  29.4  29.5  29.3  29.1  29.0  29.1  29.2

[Chacor]

Oh, and I missed out the SHIPS rapid intensification index - we could be looking at a fast developer...

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 32% is 2.5 times the sample mean(12.6%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 8.1%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 4.8%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%)

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/ ... _ships.txt

[KWT]

Yeah though its going to have to get itself going yet before any sort of decent development is likely to occur.

LGEM looks more realistic in terms of how long it takes to get going but once it gets going it shows decent conditions aloft thats for sure.

[cycloneye]

12z NAM at 48 hours.

[cycloneye]

12z NAM at 60 hours.

[KWT]

Looks like its a little weaker on the 12z run so far...

[cycloneye]

72 hours.

[cycloneye]

The 12z NAM ends with a possible landfall in Puerto Rico,but a little weaker than the past runs.

[wxman57]

Take a very close look at the model plots cycloneye posted, in particular the BAM runs. Note the 120-hr positions on the text output and then compare those 120hr points to the map below. I noticed this just today. The BAM models are now being run out to 168 hrs (7 days). The extra 2 days appear on the model plots but not in the text output.

I know that the NHC is experimenting with a 7-day forecast track internally this year (and for the next few years). I'll bet they are running the models out to 7 days to assist them in their internal 7-day tracks. No sign of the GFDL/HWRF being run 7 days yet, though.