ATL: KARL - Models

[wxman57]

Both GFS and Euro continue to forecast that the CURRENT ridge over TX and the Gulf will remain in place through Thursday. The ridge will extend a bit farther east by then. Canadian has a weaker ridge farther east, but it also had 92L turning north and tracking north of the Greater Antilles and into the Gulf via the FL Straits. It's obviously not doing a good job with 92L.

I see no reason why 92L won't just track across the Yucatan and move ashore into Mexico in the vicinity of Tampico, or possibly a bit south of there.

[BigB0882]

I completely agree, wxman. I don't see this going anywhere other than across the Yucatan and into Mexico. It could creep a little further north at the end of the run but central Mexico should be a safe bet, maybe even south.

[ROCK]

CMC might not be all that bad from the looks of things attm....the MLC looks right under DR heading into Cuba....if it was to go thru the straits then you can tack on a day or two for this to round the high......just speculating really with no discernable center to use other than best track...

[ROCK]

here is the CMC....you can track it via the isobars though it closes it off for a time, it keeps it open.....


http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[caneman]

Clearly this is developing or errr.. located since there is no center much further North than the Euro had it. You may well be right in the end WXMAN57 but it looks like the Northern models (I believe GFDL, HWRF and NAM) win the early game. I'm not sure we can trust the GFS this time around as far as ridge placement as it for the most part hasn't shown development. So, if it does develop, wouldn't it by default lose credibility? Guess that is why the good folks at the NHC prefer a blend.
Clearly though there does seem to be a pattern of Atlantic Fish spinners and deep SW Gulf/BOC storms so unless the pattern changes, we should all be safe for now.....

[wxman57]

HWRF and Canadian had it tracking north of the DR and Cuba on Friday. As for the NAM, it's hard to imagine a worse tropical model (maybe NOGAPS). There isn't really much to track now. If there is any LLC, it's very broad and weak. I'm becoming more doubtful that this system is going to develop. Fair chance, but not a guarantee. Maybe we can get a little moisture out of it here in Texas when it moves inland to our south.

Here's the model plot from last Thursday. Canadian, NOGAPS and HWRF way too far north:


On Friday, HWRF was way too far north, still. And note the consensus model TVCN over Cuba.



HWRF continues to do terribly on Saturday. It's the right outlier with LBAR and Climo:


92L has been following along quite well with the bulk of model guidance, taking it very near Jamaica then toward the central to southern Yucatan. I still don't see anything in the current or predicted mid to upper-level flow pattern to bring a storm to Texas this week. Interesting long-range GFS, though.

[caneman]

Isn't the GFS the only that really hasn't shown development? Maybe it is right. I know others have been on again / off again so I'm not real confident that anything gets going.

[RachelAnna]

Any idea what that long range GFS is all about? It's not 92L, but it looks like it brings something into the upper Texas coast at the end of the run. Ideas?

[blazess556]

18z gfs definitely is more bullish with 92l. has it as a 1006 mb low in the BOC.

[KWT]

Yep the 18z is more agressive, probably the most agressive since it orginally dropped it.

Develops itweakly to maybe a TD before the Yucatan and strengthens in the BoC...which probably will be quite favourable for development.

Track is more or less exactly what Wxman57 said, good agreement on a broadly west track.

[ROCK]

Any idea what that long range GFS is all about? It's not 92L, but it looks like it brings something into the upper Texas coast at the end of the run. Ideas?

300+hr is very long range and considered fantasy land...I would not put to much thought into it.....

[ROCK]

the BAMMS have shifted north on the 0z run....FWIW

http://flhurricane.com/modelanimator.ph ... 0&title=92

[HouTXmetro]

thats the furthest north i have seen the BAMS...but it is the BAMS lol

[Wx_Warrior]

gfs 0z

[HURAKAN]

18z GFDL

[Weatherfreak000]

It seems GFS is picking up on this area finally...that certainly is promising..

[Ivanhater]

108 GFS

[Ivanhater]

Canadian much stronger

[Wx_Warrior]

CMC finally jumps on board with Mexicon run, and decent development. Let's see if it sticks to its guns.

[Wx_Warrior]

0z EURO