ATL: KARL - Models

[plasticup]

That GFDL solution of a Cat 3 in the Bay of Campeche is pretty sobering:



The GFDL has been bullish all season, but it hasn't been wildly inaccurate. If this starts to verify it could turn into a complete disaster.

[HURAKAN]

Code: Select all

148
WHXX01 KWBC 141253
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1253 UTC TUE SEP 14 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922010) 20100914 1200 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100914  1200   100915  0000   100915  1200   100916  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    17.5N  82.2W   18.2N  84.1W   19.0N  86.3W   20.0N  88.3W
BAMD    17.5N  82.2W   18.3N  84.4W   19.1N  86.6W   20.0N  88.7W
BAMM    17.5N  82.2W   18.3N  84.4W   19.2N  86.6W   20.2N  88.7W
LBAR    17.5N  82.2W   18.4N  84.8W   19.5N  87.5W   20.9N  89.9W
SHIP        30KTS          37KTS          48KTS          58KTS
DSHP        30KTS          37KTS          48KTS          37KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100916  1200   100917  1200   100918  1200   100919  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    21.0N  90.2W   22.6N  93.4W   23.6N  97.1W   23.9N 101.9W
BAMD    20.8N  90.5W   22.2N  93.4W   23.0N  95.9W   23.9N  99.2W
BAMM    21.1N  90.6W   22.7N  93.9W   23.4N  97.3W   23.5N 101.9W
LBAR    22.2N  91.9W   24.4N  94.3W   25.8N  95.7W   26.7N  97.1W
SHIP        70KTS          85KTS          88KTS          85KTS
DSHP        37KTS          53KTS          55KTS          30KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  17.5N LONCUR =  82.2W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR =  12KT
LATM12 =  16.6N LONM12 =  79.8W DIRM12 = 286DEG SPDM12 =  13KT
LATM24 =  16.0N LONM24 =  77.1W
WNDCUR =   30KT RMAXWD =   70NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD =  180NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 
$$
NNNN



[HURAKAN]

[Ivanhater]

12z Nam

[Ivanhater]

12z GFS is quite bullish

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Stays well south as i stated last week.

[DisasterMagnet]

As far as this post: looks like a pretty straight forward track ...with development chances low until the BOC.....i can't believe this has the same amount of page's as IGOR's model thread....really?!

Speaking for myself, I've been checking on the 92L threads because it's been gripping...will it? Won't it? Is it? The SSTs are so high in the Caribbean/Gulf/BoC that any development in those areas could be quick and possibly huge. The initial tracks showed possible Gulf implications too.

It is amazing how quickly it finally came together.

Just my opinion, of course.

[shah8]

What is with the NAM this year? Was it tinkered with?

[mattpetre]

So far the models have really nailed the tracks of storms pretty well this year. Not a whole lot of divergence. Is it because the surrounding synoptics have been that straightforward? I'm thinking that Karl or Matt may be the first to pull an "Ike" on the models. So far though this future Karl does look to have a pretty easy to predict path though. Does Igor's progression have anything to do with the Westward movement of the high over the GOM? Trying to figure out if there are any signs in his movement that we in TX should watch for in regards to 92L's path. I always have lots of questions with very few answers.

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KWBC 141847
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1847 UTC TUE SEP 14 2010

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE KARL (AL132010) 20100914 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100914 1800 100915 0600 100915 1800 100916 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 18.1N 83.6W 18.8N 85.9W 19.6N 88.2W 20.4N 90.3W

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100916 1800 100917 1800 100918 1800 100919 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 21.0N 92.2W 22.0N 95.4W 22.6N 99.0W 23.2N 102.8W

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 18.1N LONCUR = 83.6W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 17.0N LONM12 = 81.1W DIRM12 = 293DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 16.3N LONM24 = 78.5W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 10NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1001MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 10NM RD34SE = 10NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[Portastorm]

So far the models have really nailed the tracks of storms pretty well this year. Not a whole lot of divergence. Is it because the surrounding synoptics have been that straightforward? I'm thinking that Karl or Matt may be the first to pull an "Ike" on the models. So far though this future Karl does look to have a pretty easy to predict path though. Does Igor's progression have anything to do with the Westward movement of the high over the GOM? Trying to figure out if there are any signs in his movement that we in TX should watch for in regards to 92L's path. I always have lots of questions with very few answers.

This image (steering flow of 500-850 mb) explains it all, pretty much.

[Buck]

So we have a 35kt Karl for 5pm (or before)?

[SouthFloridawx]

Prolly waiting on Recon to go into the NE quad to sample the strongest winds.

[FogbowBlue]

Stays well south as i stated last week.

I dont live and die by some of the models, but I'm backin that statement above
No more Tx/Mx hits. Please.

back to lurking.

[StormClouds63]

Stays well south as i stated last week.

Do you think that the large high pressure system over us will remain in place for the next 2-3 weeks, or does it weaken and permit a chance late in September for tropical development in the WGOM?

It won't be Karl, that's for sure.

Other than Lili (2002) and Hilda (1964), I can't remember any other significant systems in October impacting our part of the coast, and Lili really weakened near landfall.

[Nederlander]

nice high pressure ridge over texas.. karl will be sipping coronas instead of shiner bock..

[Dean4Storms]

Thank God for that ridge, hate it for MX, but we don't need that up here!

[ROCK]

Stays well south as i stated last week.

Do you think that the large high pressure system over us will remain in place for the next 2-3 weeks, or does it weaken and permit a chance late in September for tropical development in the WGOM?

It won't be Karl, that's for sure.

Other than Lili (2002) and Hilda (1964), I can't remember any other significant systems in October impacting our part of the coast, and Lili really weakened near landfall.

it will weaken and like I have said before...I think the first couple of weeks of Oct will be the new last 2 weeks of Sept...if that makes sense....

[Steve]

Stays well south as i stated last week.

KFDM is indeed the man. But can anyone top this from last week?

...and if I had to bet, it would be at some classifiable level on the Yucatan between Tulum and Mahaual.

[caneman]

Hope you da' Man Steve!! Great job!