ATL: JULIA - Models

[WilmingtonSandbar]

I wonder if Julia's RI will change any models (hers or Igor's).

[WilmingtonSandbar]

I noticed that the latest BAMS and BAMD ar showing some funky moves. the BAMD is showing a loop which I can see as a possibility, but the BAMS is showing some turn back to the SE. Is this because the model doesn't know what to do with it because of Igor eating Julia or is this some sort of Fujiwara movement?

[artist]

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1831 UTC FRI SEP 17 2010

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE JULIA (AL122010) 20100917 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100917 1800 100918 0600 100918 1800 100919 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 24.8N 47.4W 27.0N 50.8W 29.8N 54.5W 32.4N 58.2W
BAMD 24.8N 47.4W 25.9N 49.8W 27.8N 51.5W 30.3N 52.3W
BAMM 24.8N 47.4W 26.6N 50.2W 29.2N 52.7W 32.2N 54.8W
LBAR 24.8N 47.4W 26.5N 49.8W 28.6N 52.0W 30.7N 53.3W
SHIP 65KTS 56KTS 49KTS 46KTS
DSHP 65KTS 56KTS 49KTS 46KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100919 1800 100920 1800 100921 1800 100922 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 34.6N 62.4W 33.4N 66.6W 31.2N 57.6W 30.7N 55.2W
BAMD 32.8N 51.3W 32.9N 44.3W 29.9N 43.0W 27.1N 45.9W
BAMM 35.1N 55.9W 41.9N 58.3W 47.5N 54.9W 51.4N 40.8W
LBAR 32.8N 53.6W 35.7N 50.0W 36.7N 43.1W 36.8N 37.0W
SHIP 41KTS 23KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 41KTS 23KTS 0KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 24.8N LONCUR = 47.4W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 17KT
LATM12 = 23.6N LONM12 = 44.0W DIRM12 = 284DEG SPDM12 = 18KT
LATM24 = 22.6N LONM24 = 40.0W
WNDCUR = 65KT RMAXWD = 15NM WNDM12 = 75KT
CENPRS = 987MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 100NM RD34SE = 80NM RD34SW = 50NM RD34NW = 100NM

WHXX01 KWBC 171820

CHGHUR