ATL: JULIA - Advisories

[cycloneye]

000
WTNT32 KNHC 160248
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE JULIA ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122010
1100 PM AST WED SEP 15 2010

...JULIA WEAKENS SOME MORE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.2N 34.6W
ABOUT 755 MI...1215 KM WNW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JULIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 34.6 WEST. JULIA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN ON THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 115 MPH...185
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. JULIA IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125
MILES...205 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 962 MB...28.41 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

WTNT42 KNHC 160255
TCDAT2
HURRICANE JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122010
1100 PM AST WED SEP 15 2010

JULIA IS COMING UNDER INCREASING INFLUENCE OF SOUTHERLY SHEAR...AND
RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER AND THE
MID-LEVEL EYE ARE DISPLACED FROM ONE ANOTHER. SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE NOW T5.0/5.5 FROM TAFB...T4.0/5.0 FROM SAB...AND
T5.3/5.7 FROM THE UW-CIMSS ADT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED
TO 100 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT JULIA COULD
BE WEAKER THAN THAT. JULIA IS LOCATED VERY NEAR A DEVELOPING
CLOSED UPPER-LEVEL LOW...AND STRONG SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
OVER THE HURRICANE DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST INDICATES GRADUAL WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS
AND IS IN LINE WITH THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS. JULIA SHOULD WEAKEN
TO A TROPICAL STORM BY DAYS 4 AND 5...BUT THE FORECAST IS A LITTLE
ABOVE THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS AT THAT TIME SINCE THE SHIPS
MODEL...FOR SOME UNKNOWN REASON...SHOWS THE SYSTEM DISSIPATED BY
DAY 5. THIS SEEMS UNREASONABLE SINCE THE GFS STILL SHOWS AN INTACT
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE.

THE HURRICANE IS STARTING TO ACCELERATE AND IS NOW MOVING AT 315/14.
ADDITIONAL ACCELERATION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS JULIA
IS STEERED BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL HIGH TO ITS NORTHEAST AND THE
UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO ITS SOUTHWEST...ALMOST LIKE A SLING-SHOT AFFECT.
JULIA WILL THEN BE STEERED NORTH-NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH FROM
48-72 HOURS AS IT REACHES THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE AND THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE LARGE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH IGOR. THE
RECURVATURE TO THE NORTHEAST IS ANTICIPATED BY DAY 5 AS JULIA GETS
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW. THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND LIES JUST TO
THE WEST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. JUST LIKE IN THE CASE WITH
IGOR...THE ECMWF MODEL LIES AT THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE AND CANNOT BE IGNORED.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 16/0300Z 20.2N 34.6W 100 KT
12HR VT 16/1200Z 21.7N 36.9W 90 KT
24HR VT 17/0000Z 23.6N 40.4W 85 KT
36HR VT 17/1200Z 25.3N 43.8W 80 KT
48HR VT 18/0000Z 27.0N 46.5W 75 KT
72HR VT 19/0000Z 31.5N 49.5W 65 KT
96HR VT 20/0000Z 35.0N 48.0W 50 KT
120HR VT 21/0000Z 36.5N 43.5W 40 KT

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[abajan]

000
WTNT32 KNHC 160840
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE JULIA ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122010
500 AM AST THU SEP 16 2010

...JULIA CONTINUES WEAKENING AS IT MOVES QUICKLY NORTHWESTWARD OVER
THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.2N 36.2W
ABOUT 875 MI...1410 KM WNW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.64 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JULIA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 21.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 36.2 WEST. JULIA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A FURTHER INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR
...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

000
WTNT42 KNHC 160903
TCDAT2
HURRICANE JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122010
500 AM AST THU SEP 16 2010

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF JULIA HAS CONTINUED TO DETERIORATE
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IS DISPLACED
NORTH OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER POSITION...AND CLOUD TOPS HAVE
CONTINUED TO WARM. JULIA IS CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER WATERS OF
26-27C...AND THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH/LOW BETWEEN JULIA AND
HURRICANE IGOR IS IMPARTING 20 TO 30 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER
JULIA ACCORDING TO THE UW-CIMSS SHEAR ANALYSIS. BASED ON A BLEND
OF SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 90 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. WHILE THE SHIPS
MODEL OUTPUT SHOWS THE SHEAR DECREASING TO LESS THAN 20 KT FROM 12
TO 24 HOURS...JULIA WILL REMAIN OVER MARGINAL SSTS THROUGH THAT
TIME. THEN BY 36 HOURS OR SO...WHEN JULIA TEMPORARILY MOVES BACK
OVER WARMER WATERS...THE SHEAR INCREASES TO AROUND 30 KT AND
REMAINS HIGH FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THIS SCENARIO SHOULD
RESULT IN A GRADUAL WEAKENING FOR THE FIRST 48 HOURS...WITH MORE
RAPID WEAKENING TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
REFLECT THIS AND FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE LGEM AND SHIPS MODELS
THROUGH 48 HOURS...AND IS CLOSEST TO THE LGEM THEREAFTER.

WITH A LACK OF MICROWAVE IMAGERY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...THE
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 310/16 IS BASED LARGELY ON CONTINUITY
AND THE ASSUMPTION THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER REMAINS DISPLACED SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING
REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. JULIA IS CURRENTLY
BEING STEERED NORTHWESTWARD BY THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO ITS SOUTHWEST
AND A LARGE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS EAST...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THEN...AS JULIA MOVES AWAY FROM THE
UPPER-LOW...THE CYCLONE WILL MOVE AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE RIDGE AND TURN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AS
IT COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. SOME
DIFFERENCES REMAIN IN HOW SHARPLY JULIA MOVES AROUND THE RIDGE...
WITH THE UKMET SHOWING A SHARPER TURN...WHILE THE ECMWF AND HWRF
SHOW A WIDER TURN. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TOWARD
THE TVCN MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...AND IS CLOSE TO THE GFS FOR
THE FIRST 72 HOURS...WHICH REPRESENTS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE
ECMWF AND UKMET. THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS ALSO FASTER THAN THE
PREVIOUS PACKAGE DURING THE FIRST 24 HOURS...ACCOUNTING FOR THE
OBSERVED ACCELERATION OF JULIA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 16/0900Z 21.2N 36.2W 90 KT
12HR VT 16/1800Z 22.8N 38.8W 85 KT
24HR VT 17/0600Z 24.6N 42.4W 80 KT
36HR VT 17/1800Z 26.4N 45.5W 75 KT
48HR VT 18/0600Z 28.3N 47.7W 70 KT
72HR VT 19/0600Z 32.5N 49.5W 65 KT
96HR VT 20/0600Z 35.0N 46.5W 50 KT
120HR VT 21/0600Z 36.0N 42.5W 40 KT

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[cycloneye]

ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122010
500 PM AST THU SEP 16 2010

VERTICAL SHEAR APPEARS TO HAVE ABATED FOR THE MOMENT...WITH A 1533
UTC AMSR-E MICROWAVE PASS SHOWING THAT THE LOW- AND MID-LEVEL
CENTERS ARE JUST ABOUT VERTICALLY STACKED. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE
TOPS HAVE WARMED...AND SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE
NOW 77 KT FROM TAFB...65 KT FROM SAB...AND 65 KT AND 80 KT FROM TWO
VERSIONS OF THE UW-CIMSS ADT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS THEREFORE
LOWERED TO 75 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

JULIA HAS AN INITIAL MOTION OF 295/22 KT. THERE HAS BEEN A
SIGNIFICANT WESTWARD SHIFT IN NEARLY ALL THE TRACK GUIDANCE ON THIS
CYCLE...POSSIBLY DUE TO A STRONGER-THAN-EXPECTED MID-LEVEL HIGH TO
THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE HURRICANE. CONSEQUENTLY...THE NEW
OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED WESTWARD ABOUT HALFWAY BETWEEN
OFCI AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS TVCN. SEVERAL MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE
UKMET AND ECMWF...ARE EVEN FARTHER WEST THAN THIS TRACK SO IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT ADDITIONAL SHIFTS COULD BE REQUIRED IN THE NEXT FEW
ADVISORY PACKAGES. GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS INDICATE THAT AFTER JULIA
MOVES NORTHWARD AROUND THE RIDGE...IT SHOULD TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST AND DISSIPATE IN THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO THE
EAST OF IGOR IN ABOUT 120 HOURS.

WITH THE WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE FORECAST TRACK...JULIA APPEARS TO
HAVE A BETTER CHANCE TO MAINTAIN SOME OF ITS INTENSITY OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE HURRICANE WILL BE BATTLING THE STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW OF IGOR DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO...BUT
AFTER THAT THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT JULIA COULD SNEAK
UNDERNEATH THE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE PARTIALLY GENERATED BY IGOR.
THE SHEAR COULD RELAX JUST ENOUGH DURING THAT TIME AND CAUSE MORE
MODEST WEAKENING...SO THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE BIT
HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE FROM 36-72 HOURS. INCIDENTALLY... THE
NEW FORECAST IS STILL LOWER THAN INDICATED BY THE LGEM...THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS...AND THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 16/2100Z 23.1N 41.1W 75 KT
12HR VT 17/0600Z 24.2N 43.9W 65 KT
24HR VT 17/1800Z 26.0N 47.1W 65 KT
36HR VT 18/0600Z 27.9N 49.6W 60 KT
48HR VT 18/1800Z 30.1N 51.0W 55 KT
72HR VT 19/1800Z 34.0N 50.5W 45 KT
96HR VT 20/1800Z 37.0N 47.0W 35 KT
120HR VT 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122010
1100 PM AST THU SEP 16 2010

THE EYE OF JULIA BECAME BETTER DEFINED IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES
FOR A PERIOD OF TIME THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THE AREA OF COLD
CLOUDS TOPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE HURRICANE HAS DECREASED IN SIZE.
THE LATEST DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY
OF 70 KT. THE GLOBAL MODELS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW THAT
JULIA WILL BE ENTERING AN AREA OF STRONG NORTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTFLOW FROM HURRICANE IGOR VERY SHORTLY.
THE SHIPS GUIDANCE INDICATES 30-40 KT WIND SHEAR DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO. DURING THIS TIME JULIA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
SIGNIFICANTLY AND THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE LOWER THAN
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH 36 HOURS. IF JULIA SURVIVES THE
STRONG SHEAR...THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT COULD IMPROVE BETWEEN 36-72 HOURS. DURING THAT TIME
ONLY GRADUAL WEAKENING IS SHOWN. IN 4-5 DAYS...JULIA IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE IN THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO THE EAST OF IGOR. THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS
INTENSITY GUIDANCE.

JULIA CONTINUES TO MOVE QUICKLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH AN INITIAL
MOTION OF 290/21 KT. THE FORECAST TRACK REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED
AS JULIA WILL BE MOVING AROUND THE WESTERN PORTION OF A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE CENTERED SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES. THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS
AGAIN SHIFTED WESTWARD AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT. THE
NEW FORECAST LIES BETWEEN THE GFS...WHICH IS ALONG THE EAST EDGE OF
THE GUIDANCE...AND THE TVCN CONSENSUS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 17/0300Z 23.5N 42.9W 70 KT
12HR VT 17/1200Z 24.6N 45.7W 60 KT
24HR VT 18/0000Z 26.3N 48.8W 55 KT
36HR VT 18/1200Z 28.6N 50.8W 50 KT
48HR VT 19/0000Z 31.0N 52.0W 45 KT
72HR VT 20/0000Z 35.0N 50.5W 40 KT
96HR VT 21/0000Z 39.0N 46.5W 35 KT
120HR VT 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122010
1100 AM AST FRI SEP 17 2010

JULIA IS MAINTAINING A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE THAT IS
DISPLACED SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. USING A
BLEND OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB GIVES 75 KT
FOR THE CURRENT INTENSITY. THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE
INCREASING NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE
MASSIVE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN OF HURRICANE IGOR. GIVEN THE
HIGH AMOUNT OF SHEAR EXPECTED TO IMPACT JULIA...THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS A SOMEWHAT FASTER RATE OF WEAKENING THAN
INDICATED BY THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE MODELS LGEM AND
SHIPS. DISSIPATION IS LIKELY BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS
MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS DEPICT JULIA BECOMING ABSORBED WITHIN
THE MUCH LARGER CIRCULATION OF IGOR.

LATEST CENTER FIXES SHOW THAT THE INITIAL MOTION HAS SLOWED SOMEWHAT
AND IS NOW 285/17. THE HURRICANE HAS MOVED UNEXPECTEDLY FAR TO THE
WEST...LIKELY BECAUSE THE STEERING EFFECTS OF AN UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE
TO THE SOUTH WERE MORE PRONOUNCED THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED.
NONETHELESS...JULIA IS FORECAST TO MOVE AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 4 DAYS.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE
PREVIOUS ONE AND IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 17/1500Z 24.2N 46.7W 75 KT
12HR VT 18/0000Z 25.8N 48.8W 70 KT
24HR VT 18/1200Z 28.3N 51.1W 65 KT
36HR VT 19/0000Z 30.9N 52.1W 60 KT
48HR VT 19/1200Z 33.2N 51.7W 50 KT
72HR VT 20/1200Z 36.4N 48.5W 40 KT
96HR VT 21/1200Z 40.0N 44.0W 30 KT
120HR VT 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[cycloneye]

3
TCDAT2
HURRICANE JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122010
500 PM AST FRI SEP 17 2010

JULIA HAS BEEN EXPERIENCING MODERATE NORTHERLY SHEAR...AND
AT TIMES IT APPEARS THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS BEGINNING TO
BECOME EXPOSED. USING A BLEND OF SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK
T-NUMBERS LEADS TO A CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 65 KT. THE
SHEAR...WHICH IS PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MASSIVE OUTFLOW
PATTERN OF HURRICANE IGOR...IS NOT LIKELY TO RELENT. IN FACT...
THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE SHEAR WILL BECOME STRONGER.
THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS STEADY WEAKENING AND IS BASED
ON A COMBINATION OF THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL SHIPS AND LGEM
MODELS. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE
THAT JULIA WILL BECOME ABSORBED BY THE MUCH LARGER CIRCULATION OF
POST-TROPICAL IGOR.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT 300/18. THE FORECAST REASONING IS
ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED. JULIA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE AROUND A
MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL HIGH FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BEFORE GETTING
PULLED INTO THE CIRCULATION OF IGOR. THUS...THE NHC TRACK FORECAST
SHOWS A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...NORTH...AND NORTH-
NORTHEAST. THIS IS JUST A LITTLE TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS
OFFICIAL TRACK AND GENERALLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS TVCN.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 17/2100Z 25.2N 48.2W 65 KT
12HR VT 18/0600Z 26.9N 50.0W 60 KT
24HR VT 18/1800Z 29.6N 51.8W 55 KT
36HR VT 19/0600Z 32.5N 52.3W 50 KT
48HR VT 19/1800Z 34.8N 51.2W 45 KT
72HR VT 20/1800Z 38.2N 47.2W 35 KT
96HR VT 21/1800Z 43.0N 43.0W 25 KT
120HR VT 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[cycloneye]

000
WTNT42 KNHC 180241
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122010
1100 PM AST FRI SEP 17 2010

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION SHOWS THE CIRCULATION CENTER OF JULIA
JUST BENEATH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE CLOUD CANOPY. THE SHEARED
CLOUD PATTERN IS DUE TO 20-30 KT OF NORTHERLY SHEAR PRODUCED BY A
STRONG OUTFLOW CHANNEL ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE EARL. SUBSEQUENT
BANDING CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED CONSIDERABLY THIS EVENING...AND THE
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB HAVE DECREASED TO
65 AND 60 KT RESPECTIVELY. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 60 KT. THE GLOBAL AND THE SHIPS MODELS ALL
SUGGEST THAT THE SHEAR WILL PERSIST AND STRENGTHEN BY THE 48 HOUR
PERIOD AS THE SHEAR VECTOR BECOMES MORE WESTERLY. THE NHC INTENSITY
FORECAST INDICATES A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND BASED ON THE
AFOREMENTIONED GUIDANCE...WITH THE CYCLONE ULTIMATELY BECOMING
ABSORBED IN 96 HOURS BY THE MUCH LARGER EXTRATROPICAL IGOR.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...AND IS ESTIMATED TO BE NORTHWESTWARD OR 310/14. THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW THE CYCLONE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE
NEXT 36 HOURS WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL HIGH
TO THE NORTHEAST OF JULIA. THROUGH DAY 3...THE MODELS INDICATE
THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TURN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...AND NORTHEASTWARD
AS THE MID-LEVEL HIGH BEGINS TO DRIFT SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC. AFTERWARD...THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH JULIA BECOMING ABSORBED BY IGOR...GENERALLY IN 96 HOURS...OR
EARLIER...AS SUGGESTED BY THE SHIPS AND BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS
ENSEMBLE MEANS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY AND IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 18/0300Z 26.0N 49.2W 60 KT
12HR VT 18/1200Z 28.1N 50.8W 55 KT
24HR VT 19/0000Z 31.0N 52.1W 50 KT
36HR VT 19/1200Z 33.5N 52.0W 45 KT
48HR VT 20/0000Z 35.5N 50.6W 40 KT
72HR VT 21/0000Z 39.0N 46.0W 30 KT
96HR VT 22/0000Z...ABSORBED BY A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL LOW

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA

[cycloneye]

WTNT42 KNHC 181447
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122010
1100 AM AST SAT SEP 18 2010

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT STRONG NORTHERLY SHEAR HAS
DISPLACED DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH JULIA TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
THE NOW EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER. AS A RESULT...DVORAK T-NUMBERS
ARE DECREASING AS QUICKLY AS CONSTRAINTS WILL ALLOW. A BLEND OF
T/CI NUMBERS FROM TAFB/SAB REPRESENT THE BASIS FOR AN INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 45 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE PERSISTENCE OF STRONG
SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTFLOW OF IGOR AND PROGRESSIVELY COOLER
WATERS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK SHOULD LEAD TO A CONTINUED
WEAKENING. THE NHC OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NEAR THE STATISTICAL-
DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE...AND INDICATES JULIA BECOMING A REMNANT LOW IN
48 HOURS. HOWEVER...JULIA COULD DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW
SOONER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. ULTIMATELY...THE REMNANT
CIRCULATION OF JULIA COULD BE ABSORBED BY LARGE HURRICANE IGOR AS
IGOR UNDERGOES EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BEYOND 72 HOURS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE MORE TO THE RIGHT
COMPARED TO BEFORE AND IS NOW 320/16. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT...SHOWING A TRACK BENDING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST
LATER TODAY AND TURNING NORTHWARD TOMORROW AS JULIA MOVES AROUND A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST IS NEAR
THE THE PREVIOUS ONE...CLOSE TO THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE
BUT SLIGHTLY RIGHT OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 18/1500Z 28.9N 51.0W 45 KT
12HR VT 19/0000Z 31.1N 51.9W 40 KT
24HR VT 19/1200Z 33.5N 51.8W 35 KT
36HR VT 20/0000Z 35.5N 50.3W 30 KT
48HR VT 20/1200Z 37.0N 48.0W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72HR VT 21/1200Z 40.5N 43.0W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96HR VT 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

[cycloneye]

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



000
WTNT42 KNHC 182031
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122010
500 PM AST SAT SEP 18 2010

SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH
JULIA HAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE
CYCLONE CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE STRONG NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR...
AND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER REMAINS EXPOSED EVEN THOUGH REPEATED
BURSTS OF NEW CONVECTION CONTINUE FORMING NEAR AND TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF IT. DESPITE ITS APPEARANCE...RECENT PRESSURE DATA FROM A NUMBER
OF DRIFTING BUOYS NEAR JULIA SUGGEST THAT THE CIRCULATION OF JULIA
HAS LIKELY RETAINED ITS VIGOR. BASED UPON THESE OBSERVATIONS AND
DVORAK CI NUMBERS ARE 2.5 AND 3.5 AT 1800 UTC FROM TAFB AND
SAB...THE INTENSITY OF JULIA IS UNCHANGED AT 45 KT. SHIPS MODEL
OUTPUT SHOWS NORTHERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTFLOW FROM
HURRICANE IGOR INCREASING FURTHER DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WHILE
JULIA MOVES OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS. THE COMBINATION OF
THESE FACTORS SHOULD RESULT IN A CONTINUED WEAKENING. THE NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST IS IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IN LINE
WITH THE LATEST STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE. JULIA IS FORECAST
TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN 48 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER. THE REMNANT
CIRCULATION OF JULIA IS LIKELY TO BE ABSORBED BY LARGE HURRICANE
IGOR AS IGOR UNDERGOES EXTRATROPICAL IN ABOUT 72 HOURS.

THE TRACK OF JULIA CONTINUES BENDING TO THE RIGHT...WITH THE INITIAL
MOTION NOW ESTIMATED TO BE 330/17. JULIA IS FORECAST TO TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH BY TONIGHT AND TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND THEN
NORTHEAST TOMORROW AS JULIA MOVES AROUND THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
UKMET SOLUTION WHICH SEEMS LIKE AN OUTLIER...THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS
FAIRLY TIGHTLY CLUSTER AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO.
THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE NEAR THE THE PREVIOUS
ONE...AND IT CLOSE TO A MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS THAT EXCLUDES THE
UKMET.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 18/2100Z 30.6N 51.8W 45 KT
12HR VT 19/0600Z 32.6N 52.0W 40 KT
24HR VT 19/1800Z 34.8N 51.2W 35 KT
36HR VT 20/0600Z 36.4N 49.4W 30 KT
48HR VT 20/1800Z 38.0N 47.4W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72HR VT 21/1800Z 42.0N 43.0W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96HR VT 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

[cycloneye]

000
WTNT42 KNHC 190233
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 28
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122010
1100 PM AST SAT SEP 18 2010

JULIA HAS MOVED INTO A REGION OF WEAKER VERTICAL SHEAR DURING THE
PAST 6 HOURS AND VERY COLD TOPPED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER AS A RESULT. SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE T3.5/55 KT FROM TAFB...T2.5/35 KT FROM
SAB...AND ADT VALUES OF T3.4/43 KT FROM UW-CIMSS...RESPECTIVELY.
GIVEN THE NEW DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 45 KT...WHICH IS AN AVERAGE OF THE THREE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES.

JULIA HAS TURNED TOWARD THE NORTH AND IS NOW ESTIMATED TO BE MOVING
AT 360/12. JULIA EARLIER ACCELERATED NORTHWARD AT ABOUT 20 KT
DURING THE PERIOD WHEN IT POSSESSED NO DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE
CENTER. HOWEVER...NOW THAT CONVECTION HAS REFORMED...THE
CIRCULATION HAS LIKELY DEEPENED IN THE VERTICAL AND WILL BE SUBJECT
TO A DEEPER AND SLOWER STEERING FLOW. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT ON JULIA MOVING NORTHWARD FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS
AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD AFTER THAT AS THE CYCLONE MOVES AROUND THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO ITS EAST.
BY 48 HOURS...A SEVERELY WEAKENED AND SHALLOW JULIA AT THAT TIME IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME ABSORBED INTO THE EASTERN PORTION OF
THE VERY LARGE HURRICANE IGOR CIRCULATION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK...AND IS
SIMILAR TO THE CONSENSUS MODELS...TVCN AND TVCC.

WEAKER VERTICAL SHEAR CONDITIONS THAT JULIA HAS BEEN EXPERIENCING
THE PAST 6 HOURS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED SINCE THE CYCLONE WILL BE
MOVING NORTHWARD INTO A REGION OF STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR OF 30-50 KT
EMANATING FROM THE MASSIVE OUTFLOW FROM HURRICANE IGOR IN 6-12
HOURS. BY 24 HOURS...JULIA WILL ALSO BE MOVING OVER SUB-26C
SSTS...WHICH WHEN COMBINED WITH THE INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR...
SHOULD INDUCE RAPID WEAKENING. JULIA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A
REMNANT LOW IN 36-48 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS
THE SHIPS/LGEM MODELS...WHICH DISSIPATE JULIA BY AROUND 48 HOURS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 19/0300Z 32.4N 51.9W 45 KT
12HR VT 19/1200Z 34.3N 51.7W 40 KT
24HR VT 20/0000Z 36.1N 50.4W 30 KT
36HR VT 20/1200Z 37.6N 48.7W 25 KT
48HR VT 21/0000Z 39.1N 46.9W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72HR VT 22/0000Z 43.6N 41.8W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96HR VT 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[cycloneye]

ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 30
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122010
1100 AM AST SUN SEP 19 2010

JULIA HAS HAD ANOTHER BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS...AND SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT T3.0/45 KT FROM
BOTH TAFB AND SAB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 45 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY...BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE STORM IS AGAIN RUNNING INTO
STRONG SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH OUTFLOW FROM HURRICANE IGOR AND SHOULD
WEAKEN SOON. THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS SHOW FASTER WEAKENING THAN
THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE GLOBAL MODELS WHICH SHOULD
HAVE A BETTER REPRESENTATION OF THE MID-LATITUDE SYNOPTIC PRESSURE
PATTERN. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NEAR OR JUST BELOW THE INTENSITY
CONSENSUS...AND INDICATES JULIA WEAKENING TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
OR REMNANT LOW IN 36-48 HOURS.

BASED ON RECENT MICROWAVE DATA AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE
CENTER OF JULIA HAS BEEN RELOCATED TO THE SOUTH...AND THE INITIAL
MOTION HAS VEERED QUICKLY TO 065 DEGREES AT 13 KT. JULIA IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING AROUND THE NORTHWESTERN AND NORTHERN
SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL HIGH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WITH THE
ADJUSTED INITIAL POSITION BEING FARTHER SOUTH...THE NEW TRACK
FORECAST IS SHIFTED SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND LIES ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 19/1500Z 34.2N 50.3W 45 KT
12HR VT 20/0000Z 34.9N 48.5W 35 KT
24HR VT 20/1200Z 35.6N 46.5W 35 KT
36HR VT 21/0000Z 36.2N 44.5W 30 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48HR VT 21/1200Z 37.5N 42.5W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72HR VT 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BERG

NNNN

[cycloneye]

92033
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 31
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122010
500 PM AST SUN SEP 19 2010

SINCE THIS MORNING...THE CENTER OF JULIA HAS BECOME EXPOSED TO THE
NORTHWEST OF A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. AMSU AND ASCAT
ESTIMATES FROM AROUND 1200 UTC SUPPORTED AN INTENSITY OF 45 KT...SO
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 40 KT NOW THAT THE CYCLONE IS
MORE STRONGLY SHEARED. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY DECREASING
T-NUMBERS. THE STATISTICAL MODELS STILL SHOW QUICKER WEAKENING
THAN THE DYNAMICAL MODELS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS NEAR
THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS. JULIA WILL BE BATTLING VERY STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR...BUT IT SHOULD TAKE SOME TIME FOR THE
CIRCULATION TO SPIN DOWN. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A
REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 36 HOURS AND THEN DISSIPATE WITHIN THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW EAST OF IGOR IN 48 HOURS.

AFTER TAKING A SUDDEN AND QUICK JUMP TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST THIS
MORNING...JULIA HAS SETTLED ON A MOTION OF ABOUT 50 DEGREES AT 12
KT. THE UKMET...GFDL...AND GFDN SEEM TO UNREALISTICALLY TURN JULIA
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH AFTER 24 HOURS...SO THE NHC TRACK
FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE OTHER MAJOR DYNAMICAL MODELS.
THIS TRACK REMAINS ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 19/2100Z 34.8N 49.7W 40 KT
12HR VT 20/0600Z 35.4N 48.4W 35 KT
24HR VT 20/1800Z 36.3N 46.6W 35 KT
36HR VT 21/0600Z 37.7N 44.4W 30 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48HR VT 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[cycloneye]

000
WTNT42 KNHC 200234
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 32
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122010
1100 PM AST SUN SEP 19 2010

JULIA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN THIS EVENING. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE
THAT DEEP CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO A POORLY ORGANIZED BAND WELL
NORTHEAST OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER. DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS HAVE
DECREASED TO 2.0 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
SET TO 35 KT...USING A BLEND OF THE DVORAK DATA T AND CI NUMBERS.
ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS STRONG NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR
CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE CYCLONE. JULIA IS NOW FORECAST TO BECOME A
REMNANT LOW IN 24 HOURS...AS IT IS ANTICIPATED TO BE OVER 25 C
WATERS BY THAT TIME...BUT THIS COULD OCCUR SOONER.

A 1958 UTC TRMM OVERPASS AND A 2307 UTC SSMIS OVERPASS HAVE BEEN
HELPFUL IN LOCATING THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF JULIA...WHICH IS VERY
NEAR THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS
055/11...USING A BLEND OF SATELLITE FIXES AND THE AFOREMENTIONED
MICROWAVE DATA. JULIA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE UNTIL DISSIPATION. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST
IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IN AGREEMENT WITH A CONSENSUS
OF THE GFS...ECMWF...NOGAPS...AND HWRF MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 20/0300Z 35.2N 48.7W 35 KT
12HR VT 20/1200Z 35.8N 47.5W 30 KT
24HR VT 21/0000Z 36.8N 45.7W 30 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36HR VT 21/1200Z 38.0N 43.7W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48HR VT 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL STORM JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 34
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122010
1100 AM AST MON SEP 20 2010


DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN SHEARED OFF TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER BY
THE OUTFLOW OF HURRICANE IGOR...WITH THE COLDEST TOPS NOW A COUPLE
OF HUNDRED MILES AWAY FROM THE CENTER. THE ASCAT PASS FROM 0046Z
LAST NIGHT SHOWED THAT THE CIRCULATION WAS BECOMING ELONGATED EVEN
THEN...AND VISIBLE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS THAT JULIA IS LOSING
SOME DEFINITION AS IT BECOMES ENTANGLED WITH A FRONTAL TROUGH TO
THE EAST OF THE CYCLONE. BASED ON THESE STRUCTURAL CHANGES...THIS
WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY.

MORNING VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT JULIA IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF
THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND IS MOVING AT 090/8. THE 00Z ECMWF HANDLED
THE OVERNIGHT MOTION OF JULIA BEST...WITH THE OTHER GUIDANCE WELL
TO THE LEFT AND SHOWING MORE OF AN INTERACTION WITH THE CIRCULATION
OF IGOR. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE ECMWF GUIDANCE WITH A
FORECAST MOTION SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

STRONG UPPER-LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD KEEP THE SHEAR OVER
JULIA ELEVATED...AND GIVEN THE MARGINAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...
PREVENT THE SYSTEM FROM REDEVELOPING ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION. IF
PRESENT TRENDS CONTINUE...THE CIRCULATION OF JULIA WILL BECOME
ILL-DEFINED WITHIN A FRONTAL TROUGH OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THAT
SCENARIO IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...ALTHOUGH IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT JULIA COULD REMAIN WELL-ENOUGH DEFINED TO LINGER AND
MOVE EASTWARD AS A REMNANT LOW FOR SEVERAL DAYS...AS SHOWN BY THE
ECMWF.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 20/1500Z 34.7N 46.4W 40 KT...POST-TROPICAL
12HR VT 21/0000Z 34.9N 45.3W 35 KT...POST-TROPICAL
24HR VT 21/1200Z 35.5N 43.0W 30 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36HR VT 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN