ATL: JULIA - Advisories

[cycloneye]

WTNT32 KNHC 122037
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122010
500 PM AST SUN SEP 12 2010

...DEPRESSION NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...WILL PASS NEAR THE
SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.3N 22.8W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...INCLUDING MAIO..SAO TIAGO...
FOGO...AND BRAVA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 22.8 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND MONDAY...AND A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE
EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE
DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM
TONIGHT OR MONDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE
WARNING AREA TONIGHT.

RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN




ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122010
500 PM AST SUN SEP 12 2010

RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION JUST
TO THE WEST OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER POSITION...HOWEVER THE INTENSITY
IS BEING HELD AT 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY BASED ON A BLEND OF DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB. THE DEPRESSION IS STILL EXPERIENCING
SOME EASTERLY SHEAR...HOWEVER THE SHIPS MODEL FORECASTS THE SHEAR
TO WEAKEN IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND STAY BELOW 15 KT UNTIL 72 HOURS.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...
SHOWING STEADY STRENGTHENING THROUGH 48 HOURS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH
THE SHIPS MODEL. AFTER THAT TIME...SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES COOL
ALONG THE TRACK AND THE SHEAR INCREASES AS THE CYCLONE INTERACTS
WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH/LOW AS INDICATED BY SEVERAL OF THE
GLOBAL MODELS. GIVEN THE MIXED TRENDS IN THE GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME
PERIOD...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL HOLD THE INTENSITY AT 65 KT
THROUGH DAY 5.

THE CURRENT POSITION IS A LITTLE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT. THE OVERALL
THE SYNOPTIC REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED. A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
TURN IS EXPECTED SOON AS THE DEPRESSION MOVES AROUND THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC. THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED CONTINUE THROUGH 36 TO 48 HOURS WHEN THE
DEPRESSION WILL TURN NORTHWESTWARD INTO A BREAK IN THE RIDGE. AT
DAYS 4 AND 5 A TURN BACK TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED WITH
AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS CYCLONE MOVES AROUND THE EASTERN
SIDE OF A UPPER-LEVEL LOW THAT CUTS OFF NEAR 40W. THE OFFICIAL NHC
FORECAST IS NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH 36 HOURS DUE TO THE
INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION...AND BEYOND THAT TIME IS BASICALLY AN
EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 12/2100Z 13.3N 22.8W 30 KT
12HR VT 13/0600Z 13.7N 24.6W 35 KT
24HR VT 13/1800Z 14.6N 27.1W 45 KT
36HR VT 14/0600Z 15.6N 29.0W 55 KT
48HR VT 14/1800Z 16.9N 30.6W 65 KT
72HR VT 15/1800Z 20.4N 34.2W 65 KT
96HR VT 16/1800Z 24.0N 39.5W 65 KT
120HR VT 17/1800Z 27.1N 45.5W 65 KT

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

NNNN

[cycloneye]

WTNT32 KNHC 122350
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122010
800 PM AST SUN SEP 12 2010

...DEPRESSION NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...RAINBANDS MOVING OVER
THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.3N 23.0W
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...INCLUDING MAIO..SAO TIAGO...
FOGO...AND BRAVA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 23.0 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR. A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND MONDAY...AND A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE
EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE
DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM
TONIGHT OR MONDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER THE
WARNING AREA OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY.

RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[cycloneye]

000
WTNT22 KNHC 130243
TCMAT2
TROPICAL STORM JULIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122010
0300 UTC MON SEP 13 2010

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...INCLUDING MAIO..SAO TIAGO...
FOGO...AND BRAVA

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 23.5W AT 13/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 45NE 45SE 45SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 23.5W AT 13/0300Z
AT 13/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 22.9W

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 14.0N 25.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 45NE 45SE 45SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 14.9N 27.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 45SE 45SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 15.9N 29.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 85NE 60SE 45SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 17.1N 31.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 35SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...105NE 75SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 20.9N 35.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 35SW 40NW.
34 KT...115NE 90SE 75SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 24.5N 41.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 27.5N 46.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.5N 23.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[Brent]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM JULIA ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122010
1100 PM AST SUN SEP 12 2010

...DEPRESSION BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM...TENTH OF THE ATLANTIC
HURRICANE SEASON...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 23.5W
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...INCLUDING MAIO...SAO TIAGO...
FOGO...AND BRAVA

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JULIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 23.5 WEST. JULIA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY
A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON
TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF JULIA IS EXPECTED
TO PASS NEAR THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS OVERNIGHT AND
MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND JULIA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON TUESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER THE
WARNING AREA OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY.

RAINFALL...JULIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
2 TO 4 INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

TROPICAL STORM JULIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122010
0300 UTC MON SEP 13 2010

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...INCLUDING MAIO..SAO TIAGO...
FOGO...AND BRAVA

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 23.5W AT 13/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 45NE 45SE 45SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 23.5W AT 13/0300Z
AT 13/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 22.9W

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 14.0N 25.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 45NE 45SE 45SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 14.9N 27.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 45SE 45SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 15.9N 29.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 85NE 60SE 45SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 17.1N 31.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 35SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...105NE 75SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 20.9N 35.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 35SW 40NW.
34 KT...115NE 90SE 75SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 24.5N 41.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 27.5N 46.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.5N 23.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

TROPICAL STORM JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122010
1100 PM AST SUN SEP 12 2010

INFRARED AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW THAT THE CENTER OF
THE CYCLONE IS LOCATED NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF A CURVED BAND OF
CONVECTION THAT WRAPS AROUND THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM.
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT FROM TAFB AND 30 KT
FROM SAB. OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM UW/CIMMS ARE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER. A BLEND OF THESE ESTIMATES SUPPORT AN UPGRADE OF THE
DEPRESSION TO A 35-KT TROPICAL STORM...THE TENTH OF THE 2010
ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON.

THE EASTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS
AND IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LIGHT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
DURING THAT TIME JULIA WILL BE TRAVERSING WARM WATER AND AS A
RESULT...STEADY STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED. THE SHIPS...LGEM...
AND GFDL MODELS ALL BRING JULIA TO HURRICANE STATUS WITHIN TWO DAYS
AND THE NHC FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THEREAFTER...JULIA WILL
BE MOVING OVER SLIGHTLY COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INTO AN
AREA OF INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR TO THE EAST OF AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW/TROUGH BETWEEN 30W AND 40W. IT IS A BIT SURPRISING
GIVEN THESE NEGATIVE FACTORS THAT THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS
LITTLE...IF ANY...WEAKENING. BECAUSE OF THAT...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST WILL KEEP JULIA AT 65 KT AT DAYS 3-5 FOR NOW.

THE CENTER OF JULIA WAS RELOCATED A LITTLE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY POSITION BASED ON THE EARLIER MICROWAVE DATA. THE INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/10. THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING REMAINS
THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. JULIA IS FORECAST TO MOVE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM AFRICA WESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN ATLANTIC.
IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD
TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATES A
TURN BACK TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD AS JULIA
MOVES AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW THAT CUTS OFF
NEAR 40W. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND A BLEND OF THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS...
UKMET...GFDL...HWRF...AND ECMWF MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 13/0300Z 13.5N 23.5W 35 KT
12HR VT 13/1200Z 14.0N 25.3W 45 KT
24HR VT 14/0000Z 14.9N 27.6W 50 KT
36HR VT 14/1200Z 15.9N 29.5W 55 KT
48HR VT 15/0000Z 17.1N 31.1W 65 KT
72HR VT 16/0000Z 20.9N 35.1W 65 KT
96HR VT 17/0000Z 24.5N 41.0W 65 KT
120HR VT 18/0000Z 27.5N 46.5W 65 KT

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[Brent]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM JULIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122010
200 AM AST MON SEP 13 2010

...JULIA NEARING THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.0N 24.0W
ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...INCLUDING MAIO...SAO TIAGO...
FOGO...AND BRAVA

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JULIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 24.0 WEST. JULIA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON TUESDAY.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF JULIA WILL PASS NEAR OR OVER
THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AND JULIA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON TUESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER THE
WARNING AREA THIS MORNING.

RAINFALL...JULIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
2 TO 4 INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[WeatherGuesser]

000
WTNT32 KNHC 130835
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM JULIA ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122010
500 AM AST MON SEP 13 2010

...JULIA VERY NEAR THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS WITH NO CHANGE IN
STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.4N 24.6W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...INCLUDING MAIO...SAO TIAGO...
FOGO...AND BRAVA

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JULIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 24.6 WEST. JULIA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON TUESDAY.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF JULIA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NEAR THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS THIS MORNING...AND AWAY
FROM THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
AND JULIA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN SQUALLS ARE EXPECTED OVER
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS THIS MORNING.
THESE WINDS SHOULD DECREASE LATER TODAY.

RAINFALL...JULIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
2 TO 4 INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[cycloneye]

000
WTNT32 KNHC 131145
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM JULIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122010
800 AM AST MON SEP 13 2010

...JULIA MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...AWAY FROM THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.5N 25.6W
ABOUT 85 MI...130 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...23 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...INCLUDING MAIO...SAO TIAGO...
FOGO...AND BRAVA

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JULIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 25.6 WEST. JULIA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...23 KM/HR. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON TUESDAY.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF JULIA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE
AWAY FROM THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
AND JULIA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN SQUALLS ARE EXPECTED OVER
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS THIS MORNING.
THESE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH LATER TODAY.

RAINFALL...JULIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
2 TO 4 INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BRENNAN

[cycloneye]

000
WTNT32 KNHC 131447
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM JULIA ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122010
1100 AM AST MON SEP 13 2010

...JULIA MOVING AWAY FROM THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...NO CHANGE IN
STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.9N 26.1W
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...INCLUDING MAIO...SAO TIAGO...
FOGO...AND BRAVA

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JULIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 26.1 WEST. JULIA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON
TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF JULIA SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
AND JULIA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN SQUALLS ARE OCCURRING OVER
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...BUT SHOULD
DIMINISH LATER TODAY.

RAINFALL...THE RAINFALL THREAT FROM JULIA ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS WILL BE DIMINISHING TODAY AS THE STORM MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE ISLANDS WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 4 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BRENNAN

TROPICAL STORM JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122010
1100 AM AST MON SEP 13 2010

METEOSAT-9 IMAGERY AND A 0938 UTC SSMIS MICROWAVE OVERPASS INDICATE
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE CLOUD PATTERN DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE
MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTIVE BANDING IS SITUATED OVER THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE CYCLONE...WHERE THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS THE MOST
IMPRESSIVE. DVORAK TECHNIQUE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB
AND SAB ARE T2.5...35 KT...AND THIS IS THE INITIAL INTENSITY.

THE DYNAMICAL MODELS AND THE SHIPS MODEL SUGGEST THAT THE
UPPER-LEVEL WIND PATTERN SHOULD REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. BEYOND THAT TIME...JULIA COULD BE
IMPACTED BY A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN WESTERLY SHEAR DUE TO AN
AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN SUBTROPICAL
ATLANTIC...WHICH SHOULD HINDER FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. THE NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST REFLECTS THIS SCENARIO BY MAINTAINING JULIA AS A
LOW-END HURRICANE THROUGH 96 HOURS. AFTERWARD...THE SHIPS...
LGEM...AND THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS ALL SUGGEST THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE IGOR WILL CREATE MODERATE TO
STRONG NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER JULIA. THIS INCREASE IN SHEAR
AROUND DAY 5 IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...WHICH SHOWS
JULIA WEAKENING INTO A TROPICAL STORM.

BASED ON A NUMBER OF MICROWAVE FIXES...THE INITIAL MOTION IS
ESTIMATED TO BE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...295/12...A LITTLE LEFT OF THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH DAY 5 WITH A NORTHWESTWARD TURN IN 36 HOURS IN RESPONSE TO
A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST OF
JULIA. BEYOND THIS TIME...THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE AS THE CUT-OFF LOW
WEAKENS AND DISSIPATES. THIS SHOULD ALLOW JULIA TO MAINTAIN A
GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH DAY 5. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
FAVORS THE TVCN MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND LIES BETWEEN THE GFS AND
ECMWF GLOBAL MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 13/1500Z 14.9N 26.1W 35 KT
12HR VT 14/0000Z 15.6N 27.6W 45 KT
24HR VT 14/1200Z 16.7N 29.6W 55 KT
36HR VT 15/0000Z 18.1N 31.4W 60 KT
48HR VT 15/1200Z 19.6N 33.2W 65 KT
72HR VT 16/1200Z 22.8N 37.7W 65 KT
96HR VT 17/1200Z 25.5N 43.0W 65 KT
120HR VT 18/1200Z 28.5N 47.5W 60 KT

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BRENNAN

[Brent]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM JULIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122010
200 PM AST MON SEP 13 2010

...JULIA A LITTLE STRONGER...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.1N 26.7W
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...22 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...INCLUDING MAIO...SAO TIAGO...
FOGO...AND BRAVA

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JULIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 26.7 WEST. JULIA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...22 KM/HR. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON
TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF JULIA SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR
...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND JULIA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE IN A COUPLE OF
DAYS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL DIMINISH IN THE WARNING AREA
LATER TODAY.

RAINFALL...THE RAINFALL THREAT FROM JULIA ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS WILL BE DIMINISHING TODAY AS THE STORM MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE ISLANDS WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 4 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BRENNAN

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM JULIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122010
200 PM AST MON SEP 13 2010

...JULIA A LITTLE STRONGER...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.1N 26.7W
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...22 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...INCLUDING MAIO...SAO TIAGO...
FOGO...AND BRAVA

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JULIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 26.7 WEST. JULIA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...22 KM/HR. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON
TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF JULIA SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR
...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND JULIA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE IN A COUPLE OF
DAYS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL DIMINISH IN THE WARNING AREA
LATER TODAY.

RAINFALL...THE RAINFALL THREAT FROM JULIA ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS WILL BE DIMINISHING TODAY AS THE STORM MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE ISLANDS WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 4 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BRENNAN

[Brent]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM JULIA ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122010
500 PM AST MON SEP 13 2010

...JULIA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS STILL IN EFFECT...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.3N 27.5W
ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...INCLUDING MAIO...SAO TIAGO...
FOGO...AND BRAVA

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JULIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 27.5 WEST. JULIA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON
TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF JULIA WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR
...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND JULIA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL DIMINISH IN THE WARNING AREA
TONIGHT.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BRENNAN

TROPICAL STORM JULIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122010
2100 UTC MON SEP 13 2010

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...INCLUDING MAIO...SAO TIAGO...
FOGO...AND BRAVA

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 27.5W AT 13/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 45SE 45SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 45SE 45SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 27.5W AT 13/2100Z
AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 26.9W

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 16.0N 29.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 17.3N 30.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 75SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 18.8N 32.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 75SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 20.5N 34.4W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 23.8N 39.7W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 80SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 27.0N 46.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 30.0N 49.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.3N 27.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BRENNAN

TROPICAL STORM JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122010
500 PM AST MON SEP 13 2010

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT JULIA HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS
AFTERNOON...AS THE EASTERLY SHEAR APPEARS TO HAVE DIMINISHED A BIT.
BANDING CONTINUES TO IMPROVE OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE AND A
SMALL IRREGULAR CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE IS DEVELOPING OVER
THE CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KT IS BASED ON A BLEND OF
DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 35 AND 45 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...RESPECTIVELY
...AND A UW-CIMSS ADT ESTIMATE OF 53 KT USING THE SHEAR PATTERN.

THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS...THE LGEM...AND THE SHIPS MODEL CONTINUE TO
SHOW AN UPPER-LEVEL WIND ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING
DURING THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...THE CYCLONE
SHOULD FEEL THE AFFECTS OF INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR DUE TO AN
AMPLIFYING MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN SUBTROPICAL
ATLANTIC...WHICH SHOULD CURTAIL FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. THE NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR JULIA TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN 24
HOURS AND THEN BASICALLY MAINTAIN THIS INTENSITY THROUGH DAY 4.
AFTERWARD...THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ALL SUGGEST THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH LARGER HURRICANE IGOR WILL PRODUCE MODERATE
TO STRONG NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER JULIA. THIS INCREASE IN SHEAR
IS REFLECTED IN THE NHC FORECAST...WHICH SHOWS JULIA WEAKENING
TO A TROPICAL STORM AT DAY 5.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS BASICALLY THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
AND IS ESTIMATED TO BE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...OR 295/12. THE GFS...
GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN...HWRF...AND THE GFDL ARE NOW INDICATING MORE
OF A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION DURING THE 24 TO 36 HOUR PERIOD DUE TO A
DEVELOPING MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW LOCATED NORTH-NORTHWEST
OF JULIA. HOWEVER...THE NOGAPS...ECMWF...AND UKMET SHOW A
CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK...WHICH APPEARS TO BE DUE TO A
SHALLOWER VERTICAL STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE. THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS NORTHEAST OF THE JULIA AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
CUT-OFF LOW WEAKENS AND DISSIPATES. THIS SHOULD ALLOW JULIA TO
MAINTAIN A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
BASED ON THE TVCN CONSENSUS MODEL AND IS WEIGHTED MORE TOWARD THE
MODELS THAT INDICATE A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AROUND 36 HOURS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 13/2100Z 15.3N 27.5W 45 KT
12HR VT 14/0600Z 16.0N 29.0W 50 KT
24HR VT 14/1800Z 17.3N 30.8W 65 KT
36HR VT 15/0600Z 18.8N 32.4W 65 KT
48HR VT 15/1800Z 20.5N 34.4W 70 KT
72HR VT 16/1800Z 23.8N 39.7W 70 KT
96HR VT 17/1800Z 27.0N 46.0W 65 KT
120HR VT 18/1800Z 30.0N 49.5W 55 KT

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BRENNAN

[cycloneye]

000
WTNT32 KNHC 132339
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM JULIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122010
800 PM AST MON SEP 13 2010

...JULIA MOVING AWAY FROM THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...TROPICAL STORM
WARNING DISCONTINUED...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.3N 27.7W
ABOUT 225 MI...360 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS DISCONTINUED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JULIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 27.7 WEST. JULIA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON
TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF JULIA WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
AND JULIA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[Brent]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM JULIA ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122010
1100 PM AST MON SEP 13 2010

...JULIA MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.6N 28.0W
ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM WNW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JULIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 28.0 WEST. JULIA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
AND JULIA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

TROPICAL STORM JULIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122010
0300 UTC TUE SEP 14 2010

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 28.0W AT 14/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE 45SE 45SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 45SE 45SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 28.0W AT 14/0300Z
AT 14/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 27.5W

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 16.3N 29.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 50SE 50SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 17.5N 31.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 75SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 19.1N 32.7W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 75SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 21.1N 35.1W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 24.3N 40.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 80SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 27.5N 46.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 31.5N 50.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.6N 28.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

TROPICAL STORM JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122010
1100 PM AST MON SEP 13 2010

A RECENT AMSU MICROWAVE PASS SHOWS IMPROVED BANDING OVER THE WESTERN
SEMICIRCLE AND THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION IS NOW WRAPPING AROUND THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION. DESPITE THE IMPROVED
PRESENTATION...DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM SAB AND TAFB REMAIN 45 KT...SO
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED FOR NOW. THIS IS ALSO
SUPPORTED BY A 2324 UTC ASCAT PASS THAT SHOWED SEVERAL 35-40 KT
WIND VECTORS OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/11 KT. JULIA IS FORECAST TO TURN
NORTHWESTWARD IN ABOUT 12-24 HOURS AS IT MOVES BETWEEN THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND AN AMPLIFYING MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC. THEREAFTER JULIA IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE IN A DIRECTION BETWEEN WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST
AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE
CYCLONE. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THIS
SCENARIO...BUT THERE IS SOME SIGNIFICANT SPREAD ON WHEN THE
NORTHWESTWARD TURN WILL OCCUR. THE GFS/GFDL ARE ALONG THE EASTERN
EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE...WHILE THE UKMET AND NOGAPS ARE ALONG THE
WESTERN SIDE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES BETWEEN THE TVCN
CONSENSUS AND THE GFS/GFDL SOLUTIONS...AND IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
NHC ADVISORY.

JULIA WILL BE OVER WARM WATER AND IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE BRING THE CYCLONE TO
HURRICANE STRENGTH WITHIN THAT TIME AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST. THEREAFTER...INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND SLIGHTLY
COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO HALT ANY ADDITIONAL
INTENSIFICATION. AFTER 72 HOURS...THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT
STRONG UPPER-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTFLOW
FROM IGOR WILL BEGIN TO IMPINGE UPON JULIA. AS A RESULT...
WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED AT DAYS 4 AND 5.

THE WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED OUTWARD BASED ON THE ASCAT DATA.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 14/0300Z 15.6N 28.0W 45 KT
12HR VT 14/1200Z 16.3N 29.4W 55 KT
24HR VT 15/0000Z 17.5N 31.1W 65 KT
36HR VT 15/1200Z 19.1N 32.7W 70 KT
48HR VT 16/0000Z 21.1N 35.1W 70 KT
72HR VT 17/0000Z 24.3N 40.9W 65 KT
96HR VT 18/0000Z 27.5N 46.5W 55 KT
120HR VT 19/0000Z 31.5N 50.0W 50 KT

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[WeatherGuesser]

000
WTNT32 KNHC 140836
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE JULIA ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122010
500 AM AST TUE SEP 14 2010

...JULIA BECOMES A HURRICANE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...THE
FIFTH OF THE 2010 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.1N 29.0W
ABOUT 330 MI...535 KM W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JULIA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 29.0 WEST. JULIA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR. A WEST-NORTHWEST
TO NORTHWEST MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. JULIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90
MILES...150 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

[lester]

WTNT32 KNHC 141443 TCPAT2 BULLETIN HURRICANE JULIA ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122010 1100 AM AST TUE SEP 14 2010...JULIA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.2N 29.5W ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM WNW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/HR PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/HR MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JULIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 29.5 WEST. JULIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. A WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. JULIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...FOLLOWED BY SLOW WEAKENING. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 984 MB...29.06 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

[cycloneye]

WTNT42 KNHC 142036
TCDAT2
HURRICANE JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122010
500 PM AST TUE SEP 14 2010

THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH JULIA HAS BECOME SOMEWHAT
ASYMMETRIC DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH A LARGE MASS OF
DEEP CONVECTION HAVING FORMED SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER. THE
EYE THAT WAS VISIBLE EARLIER IS ALSO NO LONGER AS EVIDENT. THE
OUTFLOW HAS BECOME A BIT RESTRICTED TO THE WEST...INDICATIVE OF
SOME UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW ALREADY IMPINGING UPON THE CYCLONE.
DVORAK CI NUMBERS AT 1800 UTC ARE UNCHANGED FROM 1200 UTC...WHILE
THE 3-HOURLY AVERAGED ADT VALUE IS AT 4.6. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
HELD AT 75 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY IN AGREEMENT WITH SATELLITE
ESTIMATES.

RECENT FIXES INDICATE THAT JULIA HAS SLOWED A BIT FURTHER...AND THE
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/08. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
UKMET...THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT THIS CYCLE
CONCERNING THE SHORT-TERM TRACK FORECAST. JULIA IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ON A GENERAL NORTHWESTERLY COURSE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS
IT INTERACTS WITH A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING
SOUTHWESTWARD FROM A CYCLONE OVER THE NORTHEAST ATLANTIC.
FROM 24-72 HOURS...GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT JULIA SHOULD TURN
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. BEYOND THAT
TIME...JULIA IS FORECAST TO TURN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN
NORTHWARD ONCE IT REACHES THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL NHC TRACK FORECAST IS NUDGED TO THE RIGHT AGAIN
USING A MODEL CONSENSUS THAT EXCLUDES THE UKMET BUT HAS SHIFTED A
BIT TO THE LEFT LATE IN THE PERIOD...FOLLOWING THE TREND IN THE
GUIDANCE.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT WESTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A
MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...PARTIALLY RELATED TO THE OUTFLOW OF
HURRICANE IGOR...MAY ALREADY BE NEGATIVELY IMPACTING JULIA. SHIPS
MODEL OUTPUT INDICATES SOME INCREASE IN THIS SHEAR DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AT THE SAME TIME JULIA TRAVERSES MARGINAL SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. ALTHOUGH THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
OVER WARMER WATERS AGAIN LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...GLOBAL
MODELS SHOW A STRONG SURGE OF NORTHERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
OUTFLOW FROM HURRICANE IGOR ADVERSELY AFFECTING JULIA. ALTHOUGH
FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE OFFICIAL NHC INTENSITY FORECAST...
JULIA COULD BE WEAKER THAN FORECAST IF THE PREDICTED SHEAR
MATERIALIZES.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 14/2100Z 16.7N 30.2W 75 KT
12HR VT 15/0600Z 17.8N 31.4W 80 KT
24HR VT 15/1800Z 19.5N 33.1W 80 KT
36HR VT 16/0600Z 21.3N 35.7W 75 KT
48HR VT 16/1800Z 22.8N 39.1W 70 KT
72HR VT 17/1800Z 25.0N 46.0W 70 KT
96HR VT 18/1800Z 29.1N 50.5W 60 KT
120HR VT 19/1800Z 33.0N 51.0W 50 KT

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

[cycloneye]

TCDAT2
HURRICANE JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122010
1100 PM AST TUE SEP 14 2010

JULIA HAS AGAIN DEVELOPED A SMALL EYE...AND INTENSE DEEP CONVECTION
HAS BEEN WRAPPING AROUND THAT FEATURE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE A UNANIMOUS 5.0 FROM TAFB...
SAB...AND THE OBJECTIVE ADT...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO
90 KT. MICROWAVE IMAGES INDICATE THAT JULIA HAS A WELL-DEFINED
CENTER ALTHOUGH THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION IS NOW A LITTLE
ELONGATED AND OUTFLOW IS RESTRICTED OVER THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
HURRICANE...LIKELY DUE TO SHEAR PRODUCED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
TO ITS NORTHWEST. EVEN THOUGH THE SHEAR IS ALREADY PRESENT...IT
MAY NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH YET TO LIMIT INTENSIFICATION...AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST INDICATES VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY FOR THE
NEXT 24-36 HOURS. THIS FOLLOWS THE TREND SHOWN IN THE STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE. AFTER 36 HOURS...VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
DRASTICALLY AS JULIA MOVES AROUND THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL LOW...AND THEN BEGINS TO FEEL THE INFLUENCE OF
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW FROM HURRICANE IGOR. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
JUST A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE DUE TO THE RECENT
INTENSIFICATION...AND IT STILL SHOWS WEAKENING TO A TROPICAL STORM
BY DAY 5.

THE INITIAL POSITION HAS BEEN ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH BASED
ON RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY...BUT THE MOTION IS STILL ESTIMATED AT
295/8. JULIA IS EXPECTED TO TURN TO THE NORTHWEST SHORTLY...BUT IT
SHOULD TURN BACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITHIN 36 HOURS AS IT GETS
STEERED BETWEEN THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE UPPER LOW AND A BLOCKING
RIDGE TO THE NORTH. BY DAY 4...JULIA WILL HAVE REACHED THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND THE SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE
EAST OF IGOR...AND IT SHOULD TURN SHARPLY NORTHWEST THEN TO THE
NORTH BY DAY 5. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY-CLUSTERED THROUGH
DAY 4 BUT THEN WIDENS ON DAY 5 WITH THE ECMWF TAKING A MORE
WESTERLY COURSE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS LOCATED JUST TO THE WEST
OF THE CONSENSUS TVCN ON DAY 5 OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE ECMWF.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/0300Z 16.7N 30.9W 90 KT
12HR VT 15/1200Z 17.8N 32.1W 95 KT
24HR VT 16/0000Z 19.4N 34.2W 90 KT
36HR VT 16/1200Z 21.0N 37.3W 85 KT
48HR VT 17/0000Z 22.4N 40.8W 80 KT
72HR VT 18/0000Z 25.0N 47.0W 75 KT
96HR VT 19/0000Z 29.0N 51.0W 65 KT
120HR VT 20/0000Z 33.0N 51.0W 50 KT

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[Brent]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE JULIA SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122010
1230 AM AST WED SEP 15 2010

...JULIA STRENGTHENS RAPIDLY...NOW A MAJOR HURRICANE WITH 125 MPH
WINDS...


SUMMARY OF 1230 AM AST...0530 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.9N 31.3W
ABOUT 490 MI...785 KM W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1230 AM AST...0530 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JULIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 31.3 WEST. JULIA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN BACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH AN
ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON THURSDAY.

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT JULIA HAS STRENGTHENED RAPIDLY OVER
THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO
NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. JULIA IS NOW A
CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND
SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TODAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 955 MB...28.20 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...430 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/PASCJ

HURRICANE JULIA SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122010
1230 AM AST WED SEP 15 2010

ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT JULIA HAS RAPIDLY
STRENGTHENED DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS WITH THE EYE NOW MORE
DISTINCT AND CIRCULAR AND THE LARGER CIRCULATION LESS ELONGATED
THAN IT WAS EARLIER. CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -75 C NOW SURROUND THE
EYE. A SPECIAL CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB GAVE A DVORAK T-NUMBER OF
6.0 OR 115 KT AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS ARE
CLOSER TO 100 OR 105 KT. BASED ON THESE ESTIMATES...THE NEW
INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 110 KT. SINCE THE ENVIRONMENT HAS
OBVIOUSLY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING...AT LEAST IN THE
SHORT TERM...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED
UPWARD FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE CHANGES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/0530Z 16.9N 31.3W 110 KT
12HR VT 15/1200Z 17.8N 32.1W 120 KT
24HR VT 16/0000Z 19.4N 34.2W 120 KT
36HR VT 16/1200Z 21.0N 37.3W 110 KT
48HR VT 17/0000Z 22.4N 40.8W 90 KT
72HR VT 18/0000Z 25.0N 47.0W 75 KT
96HR VT 19/0000Z 29.0N 51.0W 65 KT
120HR VT 20/0000Z 33.0N 51.0W 50 KT

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/PASCH

[Brent]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE JULIA ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122010
500 AM AST WED SEP 15 2010

...JULIA STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE...NOW A CATEGORY FOUR
HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.3N 31.8W
ABOUT 525 MI...845 KM W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH...215 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.05 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JULIA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 31.8 WEST. JULIA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. A TURN TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 135 MPH...215
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. JULIA IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TODAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 950 MB...28.05 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

HURRICANE JULIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122010
0900 UTC WED SEP 15 2010

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 31.8W AT 15/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 950 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 20SE 15SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 45NE 30SE 25SW 40NW.
34 KT.......100NE 80SE 70SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 120SE 120SW 200NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 31.8W AT 15/0900Z
AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 31.4W

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 18.6N 33.2W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 45SE 35SW 55NW.
34 KT...120NE 95SE 75SW 105NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 20.4N 35.9W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 55SE 45SW 60NW.
34 KT...135NE 110SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 22.2N 39.3W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 55SE 45SW 60NW.
34 KT...135NE 110SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 23.4N 42.6W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 55SE 45SW 60NW.
34 KT...135NE 110SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 26.3N 48.1W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 45SW 60NW.
34 KT...135NE 110SE 90SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 30.0N 50.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 34.0N 49.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.3N 31.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

[cycloneye]

WTNT42 KNHC 152044
TCDAT2
HURRICANE JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122010
500 PM AST WED SEP 15 2010

THE EYE OF JULIA HAS BEEN APPARENT INTERMITTENTLY IN INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON. A 1912 UTC SSMIS MICROWAVE
OVERPASS INDICATES THAT THERE IS SOME TILT TO THE CIRCULATION WITH
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER LOCATED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF THE MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL EYE...DUE TO SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. JULIA HAS
LIKELY PEAKED IN INTENSITY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO
110 KT...BASED ON A BLEND OF SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK DATA
T-NUMBERS THAT HAVE DECREASED SLIGHTLY. THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING
INTO A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE SOUTHERLY SHEAR AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER SSTS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SHOULD RESULT
IN GRADUAL WEAKENING. AFTER 48 HOURS...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW JULIA
MOVING INTO AN AREA OF INCREASING NORTHEASTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTFLOW FROM HURRICANE IGOR. A FASTER RATE OF
WEAKENING IS INDICATED BY THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE AND IN THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST AT THAT TIME. THE NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE
INTENSITY CONSENSUS AT DAYS 3-5...BUT IS HIGHER THAN THE SHIPS
GUIDANCE WHICH WEAKENS THE JULIA VERY RAPIDLY AFTER 72 HOURS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 315/11. JULIA IS FORECAST TO MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD AROUND AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO ITS SOUTHWEST DURING THE
NEXT 12-24 HOURS. DURING THIS TIME...THE FORWARD SPEED OF JULIA IS
FORECAST TO INCREASE. BETWEEN 24 AND 72 HOURS...THE HURRICANE WILL
BE STEERED IN A WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST DIRECTION AROUND THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED BETWEEN JULIA AND
THE AZORES ISLANDS. THEREAFTER...JULIA SHOULD TURN
NORTHWARD...THEN NORTHEASTWARD BETWEEN THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE
RIDGE AND HURRICANE IGOR TO THE WEST. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN A
LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THIS CYCLE. THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST
HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SOMEWHAT NORTHWARD AND LIES NEAR THE MIDDLE OF
THE MODEL ENVELOPE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/2100Z 19.2N 33.5W 110 KT
12HR VT 16/0600Z 20.6N 35.5W 105 KT
24HR VT 16/1800Z 22.6N 38.9W 100 KT
36HR VT 17/0600Z 24.3N 42.4W 95 KT
48HR VT 17/1800Z 26.0N 45.5W 85 KT
72HR VT 18/1800Z 30.0N 49.6W 75 KT
96HR VT 19/1800Z 34.0N 49.0W 60 KT
120HR VT 20/1800Z 36.0N 45.0W 45 KT

$$
FORECASTER BROWN