WPAC: FANAPI - Tropical Depression (1011/12W/Inday)

[dexterlabio]

Fanapi moves at a slow pace in Taiwan. If he happened to move fast across Taiwan then he should avoid much weakening, noting that some areas in Taiwan are mountainous that could heavily disrupt his circulation. I'll not be surprised if Fanapi weakens further.

[RobWESTPACWX]

Wow, Crostorm are you photobyke on youtube, I was viewing those videos earlier today, intense stuff. And yet again thanks for those reports and videos from there in taiwan, one you got a video from what looks like on top of a sky scraper, jeez that must have been something.

Looks like the center of circulation is in the straight now, glad you all faired decently, taiwanguest I hope your house is ok, I know you were reporting flooding earlier, please let us know how you are doing.

Rob

[RobWESTPACWX]

Midnight update on westpacwx, will have a full in depth analysis in the morning though, late night and long day right now so I'm off to bed, time to gear up for landfall in china tomorrow. Hope all stay safe!

[supercane]

WTPN31 PGTW 191500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 12W (FANAPI) WARNING NR 020
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191200Z --- NEAR 23.3N 119.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.3N 119.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 23.5N 117.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 23.6N 114.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 23.8N 112.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 23.8N 110.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
191500Z POSITION NEAR 23.4N 119.1E.
TYPHOON (TY) 12W (FANAPI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 140 NM SOUTHWEST OF
TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191200Z IS 22 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 192100Z, 200300Z, 200900Z AND 201500Z.//
NNNN



WDPN31 PGTW 191500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 12W WARNING NR 20//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 12W (FANAPI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 140 NM SOUTHWEST OF
TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A TAIWAN RADAR
LOOP INDICATE TY 12W HAS RE-EMERGED OVER WATER IN THE TAIWAN STRAIT.
THE AFOREMENTIONED RADAR LOOP AND IR IMAGERY AS WELL AS A 191100Z 91
GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW A MAJORITY OF THE DEEP CONVECTION
ALONG THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM, WHILE CONVECTION ALONG
THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY DUE TO LAND
INTERACTION WITH TAIWAN. THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT
POSITION BASED ON THE SSMIS IMAGE AND A WEAKLY DEFINED EYE FEATURE
IN THE RADAR LOOP. CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES
FROM PGTW, AND RJTD OF 65 TO 70 KNOTS. OBSERVATIONS FROM KAOHSIUNG,
TAIWAN (40 NM SOUTH OF TY FINAPI'S TRACK) INDICATED MAX WINDS OF 40
KNOTS GUSTING TO 60 KNOTS AT 19/06Z. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO SHOW ENHANCED EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A
DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE EAST OF TY 12W. HOWEVER, POLEWARD
OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO BE RESTRICTED BY AN ANTICYCLONE NORTH OF THE
SYSTEM CAUSING INCREASED NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE OVERALL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 12W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE ANCHORED OVER NORTHEASTERN
CHINA THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO RE-
INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE TAIWAN STRAIT BEFORE
MAKING LANDFALL OVER EASTERN CHINA NEAR TAU 12. TY 12W IS EXPECTED
TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK WESTWARD OVER INLAND
CHINA AND DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TAU 48.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY PACKED THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD; THEREFORE THIS FORECAST IS CLOSE TO MODEL
CONSENSUS.//
NNNN



WTPQ20 RJTD 191800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1011 FANAPI (1011)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 191800UTC 23.4N 119.0E FAIR
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 220NM NORTHEAST 170NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 201800UTC 23.4N 114.3E 75NM 70%
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 211800UTC 23.2N 111.2E 110NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =




TPPN10 PGTW 191822
A. TYPHOON 12W (FANAPI)
B. 19/1732Z
C. 23.6N
D. 119.0E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T3.5/4.0/W1.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/06HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CONVECTION WRAPPED A .75 ON LOG
10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 3.5. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
19/1407Z 23.5N 119.4E TRMM
GATES

335
TCNA21 RJTD 191800
CCAA 19180 47644 FANAPI(1011) 14235 11190 14214 245// 92810=



07fW40191
WTCI RCTP 191800 =
WARNING VALID 201800Z =
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 3 HOURS =
TYPHOON 201011 (FANAPI 201011) WARNING =
POSITION 191800Z AT TWO THREE POINT FIVE NORTH ( 23.5N ) ONE ONE NINE POINT ZERO EAST ( 119.0E ) =
MOVEMENT NEXT 24HRS WEST 20KM/HR
MIN SURFACE PRESSURE 970 HPA =
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR CENTER 33 METER PER SECOND GUST 43 METER PER SECOND =
RADIUS OF OVER 15M/S WINDS 200 KM =
FORECAST POSITION =
12HRS VALID AT 200600Z AT TWO THREE POINT EIGHT NORTH ( 23.8N ) ONE ONE SIX POINT EIGHT EAST ( 116.8E )=
24HRS VALID AT 201800Z AT TWO THREE POINT NINE NORTH ( 23.9N ) ONE ONE FOUR POINT FOUR EAST ( 114.4E )=
48HRS VALID AT 211800Z Tropical Depression.=

[supercane]

From Bloomberg article "China Steps Up Emergency Response for Typhoon Fanapi as Storm Nears Coast":

Fanapi swept through Taiwan yesterday with winds gusting as high as 180 kilometers (112 miles) per hour, downing electric lines, forcing evacuations and closing schools, offices, airports and ground transport. Some 45 people were injured, the Central Emergency Operations Center said.

Power outages struck 313,596 households on the island, the Ministry of Economic Affairs reported on its website, adding that electricity was restored at 140,000. Emergency workers evacuated 10,468 people from 13 counties and 53 townships prone to landslides, the Central Emergency Operations Center said.

[supercane]

WTPQ20 RJTD 192100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1011 FANAPI (1011)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 192100UTC 23.6N 118.5E FAIR
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 220NM NORTHEAST 170NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 202100UTC 23.5N 113.9E 75NM 70%
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
45HF 211800UTC 23.2N 111.2E 110NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

WTPN31 PGTW 192100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 12W (FANAPI) WARNING NR 021
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191800Z --- NEAR 23.6N 119.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.6N 119.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 23.7N 116.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 23.8N 114.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 23.8N 112.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
192100Z POSITION NEAR 23.6N 118.4E.
TYPHOON (TY) 12W (FANAPI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 90 NM NORTHWEST OF
KAOHSIUNG, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A 191732Z PGTW SATELLITE
FIX AND A 191800Z TAIWAN RADAR FIX. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE
OF 70 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH PGTW AND RJTD DVORAK T-NUMBER
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 65 TO 77 KNOTS AND AN 1800Z WIND OBSERVATION
OF 65 KNOTS REPORTED BY THE NEARBY SHIP SAVANNAH EXPRESS. TY 12W HAS
INTENSIFIED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, WITH CONVECTION
DEEPENING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND STRONG ROTATION EVIDENT
ON A LOOP OF RECENT RADAR DATA FROM TAIWAN. THE TYPHOON IS TRACKING
WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN EXTENSIVE STEERING RIDGE
AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS MOTION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD,
MAKING LANDFALL NEAR SHANTOU, CHINA, JUST PRIOR TO TAU 12. THE
CYCLONE MAY STILL INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY PRIOR TO LANDFALL UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF VERY GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. AFTER LANDFALL, THE
CYCLONE WILL STEADILY DISSIPATE TO BELOW THE WARNING THRESHOLD
INTENSITY OF 25 KNOTS BY TAU 36. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
191800Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200300Z, 200900Z, 201500Z AND
202100Z.//
NNNN




TXPN27 KNES 192116
SIMWIR
A. 12W (FANAPI)
B. 19/2032Z
C. 23.4N
D. 118.3E
E. THREE/MTSAT
F. T3.5/3.5/D0.5/06HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS...SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED SLIGHTLY OVER PAST 6 AND DT OF 3.5
BASED ON 8/10 BANDING. HOWEVER BANDING IS LIMITED ON WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE
DUE TO LAND AND STRONGEST CONVECTION IS IN SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WHICH
IS OVER WATER. PAT IS ALSO 3.5. FT BASED ON DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...SWANSON
=

[TaiwanGuest]

Thanks for asking after me. I'm fine. I was beginning to think the storm would never end--just when it started to end. It was right on top of me for most of the day yesterday. The flooding isn't as bad as it could have been, especially with the stuff torn out around the air con. That room is well flooded, but we don't use it much anyway. The kitchen is wet, but cleanable.

This morning there were a couple of good lightening strikes and thunder claps as an encore.

The world outside my windows is full of busted trees and signs, and a couple of twisted traffic lights--you know, after the typhoon kinda stuff.

But like I said, I've riden out a super typhoon here before completely unprepared, but this was still worse than that. It was a right good typhoon.

[Typhoon10]

HKO is showing this as almost touching down on land in China

[RobWESTPACWX]

Thanks Taiwan Guest for keeping us informed on that, glad you faired well during the storm. I guess it could always be worst right?

[RobWESTPACWX]

Video Response someone gave me on youtube, crazy flooding

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fs0PzOvoHWg&feature=watch_response[/youtube]

[Infdidoll]

Wow! Can't wait to watch all the videos...I've had a few busy days here so I'll be sure to check them out this evening. So glad to hear no fatalities reported (last I heard, anyway). That's pretty amazing for such a strong storm. Glad to hear you're doing fine, Adam! If I were anywhere nearby, I'd come help you guys clean up the kitchen. I'm a woman, that's what we do (haha). Okay, back to work for me...

[RobWESTPACWX]

Three deaths at this time I have heard about unfortunately, two teenagers drowning in a canal and another older lady drowning while trying to get her harvest in before the storm hit..

[supercane]

WTPN31 PGTW 200300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 12W (FANAPI) WARNING NR 022
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
200000Z --- NEAR 23.9N 117.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.9N 117.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 23.8N 114.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 23.6N 112.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
200300Z POSITION NEAR 23.9N 116.9E. TYPHOON (TY) 12W (FANAPI),
LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 210 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF HONG KONG, CHINA, HAS
TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200000Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 200900Z, 201500Z AND 202100Z.//
NNNN



WDPN31 PGTW 200300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 12W WARNING NR 22//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 12W (FANAPI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 210 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF HONG KONG, CHINA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTARD AT 13
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A
192332Z PGTW SATELLITE FIX AND A 192331Z SSMIS IMAGE SHOWING A CLEAR
CENTER FEATURE. THE INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH CURRENT
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND RJTD. TY 12W CONTINUES TO
TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN EXTENSIVE STEERING RIDGE TO
THE NORTH AND IS PRESENTLY MAKING LANDFALL BETWEEN SHANTOU AND
XIAMEN, CHINA. INTERACTION WITH LAND HAS EXPOSED THE WESTERN PORTION
OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WHILE DEEP CONVECTION
PERSISTS OVER WATER IN THE STRONG CONVERGENT FLOW ALONG THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE LLCC.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE OVERALL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 12W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE ANCHORED OVER NORTHEASTERN
CHINA THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES
TRACKING OVER LAND IT WILL STEADILY DISSIPATE BELOW THE WARNING
THRESHOLD INTENSITY OF 25 KNOTS BY TAU 24.//
NNNN

[supercane]

2nd landfall over China.
WTPQ20 RJTD 200300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1011 FANAPI (1011)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 200300UTC 23.8N 116.3E FAIR
MOVE W 15KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 180NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 210300UTC 24.1N 111.7E 70NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =



TXPN27 KNES 200322
SIMWIR
A. 12W (FANAPI)
B. 20/0232Z
C. 23.6N
D. 116.4E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. OVERLAND
G. IR/EIR/VIS
H. REMARKS...THIS WILL BE THE FINAL BULLETIN UNLESS SYSTEM MOVES
OVER WATER.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...LIDDICK
=

[RobWESTPACWX]

Outer Rain Bands entering in to the HongKong Region...

Also posted a new update for the 20th at westernpacificweather.com for those of you that have been following them.

[Chacor]

JTWC has issued final warning on it as a 50 kt TS inland (don't get me started on how ridiculous that is). JMA at 9z have a 45 kt TS.

[RobWESTPACWX]

JT main concern is ship safety, with the storm inland they really are passing off the ball now. You know? Does seem a little early though.

[supercane]

JMA 12Z advisory:
WTPQ20 RJTD 201200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1011 FANAPI (1011)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 201200UTC 23.9N 115.5E FAIR
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 180NM SOUTH 90NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 211200UTC 23.8N 111.4E 70NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =




JTWC 09Z final advisory:
WTPN31 PGTW 200900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 12W (FANAPI) WARNING NR 023
DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 12W
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
200600Z --- NEAR 23.7N 115.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
REPEAT POSIT: 23.7N 115.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 24.0N 113.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 24.5N 112.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
200900Z POSITION NEAR 23.8N 115.2E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 12W (FANAPI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 125 NM
NORTHEAST OF HONG KONG, CHINA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES TS 12W HAS TRACKED OVER INLAND CHINA AND WEAKENED
CONSIDERABLY. DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO PERSIST ALONG THE
SOUTHEASTERN EXTENT OF THE SYSTEM ALONG COASTAL CHINA. THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON A 200532Z PGTW POSITION FIX AS WELL AS A
200600Z RJTD POSITION FIX WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. TS 12W IS FORECAST
TO CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD AND DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TAU 24. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM
BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVMARFCSTCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL
BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 200600Z IS 15 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13W
(THIRTEEN) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN



JMA Dvorak still 3.0?
699
TCNA21 RJTD 201200
CCAA 20120 47644 FANAPI(1011) 14238 11145 14104 230// 92913=

[senorpepr]

WTPQ20 RJTD 201500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1011 FANAPI (1011)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 201500UTC 23.7N 114.5E POOR
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 180NM SOUTH 60NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 211500UTC 23.8N 110.2E 70NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

[windysocks]

A windy and wet night in Hong Kong, but no worse than a regular winter's day in Scotland.