WPAC: FANAPI - Tropical Depression (1011/12W/Inday)

[Infdidoll]

Any pro mets have any reasoning about the track? I know some in Taipei are wondering if they are going to be spared the worst of this after all. From radar, it appears the eye should be passing over Hualian (or is it Hualien? Two different spellings out there) at any time now. Does it look to anyone else that this is going to continue a little slightly more southwest?

It is going to track WSW to SW across Taiwan, Taipei will most likely be spared. This is a usual land effect induced on strong storms crossing Taiwan. Usually the low level center reforms SW of where it was landed for Typhoons that are moving west, while it reforms NW of the landfall location for WNW moving storms.

Moreover, JMA forecast a SW drift while in the strait, which may give enough time to re-organize a bit before smashing into the coast of SE China, at this point I am in danger as well, because it is forecast to pass over my head (JMA, HKO) at borderline TS/TY strength...

EDIT: sorry I am not a pro-met, just gave my 2 cents based on experience.

Thank you! Like Rob said, there is an area of high pressure just to the north that seems to be pushing it a little further to the south. Be careful over there. It seems to be moving rather quickly like you noted yesterday...which is a good thing for Taiwan as they struggle with water system overflow issues. It also doesn't look like there is as much rain behind this storms as have built up with other storms. Definitely good news for Taiwan.

[RobWESTPACWX]

Thanks Simon, appreciate your input in china there. Been so concentrated on landfall on Taiwan China has been kind of put on the back burner, this this looking to re-orgainze in the straits it still could be a pretty big problems there eh?

[HURAKAN]

moving over Taiwan

[Simone Lussardi]

Thanks Simon, appreciate your input in china there. Been so concentrated on landfall on Taiwan China has been kind of put on the back burner, this this looking to re-orgainze in the straits it still could be a pretty big problems there eh?

Definitely yes, news here are talking about it all the times, often as the first news. Models are forecasting an unleash of over 200 mm of rain for half Guangdong (including the Pearl River Delta, which is the most densely populated area), that will be almost certainly be coupled with TY force gusts over at least the first half of Guangdong till the PRD.

[Simone Lussardi]

Oh my God, Hualien reported max gust of 56.5 m/s at 8:00 AM, equal to 203.4 kph or 111 kts !

[HURAKAN]

latest

[Simone Lussardi]

latest

Same but without topography and standard colors.

[TaiwanGuest]

7-11 is ALAWYS open, and they mean that. I made it with no problems, but I really felt I had to go quickly, as there will be no going later. I was here for a super typhoon in 2005, I think it was, and had no idea it was even comming until it go here. I'm a BIT more north of where I was then, and on a much higher floor, but this is already way worse than I remember that being. The wind is just screaming like a choirus of demons.

[Infdidoll]

The wind is just screaming like a choirus of demons.

Typhoon winds put any horror movie sound effects to shame. I hope everyone is all right! I'm not too surprised about 7/11 still being open. They convenience stores are like that on Okinawan too...There would be some REALLY upset people if they ran out of beer during a typhoon!

Where are you guys finding the reports on the wind gusts? I couldn't find a WU station for those areas.

[supercane]

WTPQ20 RJTD 190000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1011 FANAPI (1011)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 190000UTC 23.7N 121.6E GOOD
MOVE W 14KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 180NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 200000UTC 23.4N 118.3E 85NM 70%
MOVE WSW 10KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
48HF 210000UTC 23.6N 113.2E 140NM 70%
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 220000UTC 23.6N 108.1E 210NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =




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Typhoon warning
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potential track area
warning information
07fW40192
WTCI RCTP 190000 =
WARNING VALID 200000Z =
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 3 HOURS =
TYPHOON 201011 (FANAPI 201011) WARNING =
POSITION 190000Z AT TWO THREE POINT SIX NORTH ( 23.6N ) ONE TWO ONE POINT SEVEN EAST ( 121.7E ) =
MOVEMENT NEXT 24HRS WEST 20KM/HR
MIN SURFACE PRESSURE 940 HPA =
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR CENTER 45 METER PER SECOND GUST 55 METER PER SECOND =
RADIUS OF OVER 15M/S WINDS 200 KM =
FORECAST POSITION =
12HRS VALID AT 191200Z AT TWO THREE POINT SEVEN NORTH ( 23.7N ) ONE ONE NINE POINT THREE EAST ( 119.3E )=
24HRS VALID AT 200000Z AT TWO THREE POINT NINE NORTH ( 23.9N ) ONE ONE SIX POINT NINE EAST ( 116.9E )=
48HRS VALID AT 210000Z AT TWO FOUR POINT FOUR NORTH ( 24.4N ) ONE ONE TWO POINT SEVEN EAST ( 112.7E )=
72HRS VALID AT 220000Z Tropical Depression.=

[Chacor]

CWB has an observations page.

Based on the radar, looks like landfall around 0020 UTC.

[Simone Lussardi]

Where are you guys finding the reports on the wind gusts? I couldn't find a WU station for those areas.

http://www.cwb.gov.tw/eng/observe/real/current_e.htm#

Click on the area and then the location.

[dexterlabio]

Scary to think that almost all of Taiwan would have winds of 50kts to 100kts!

[Infdidoll]

Thanks for the info, Chacor & Simone!

[dexterlabio]

In Hualien, there are gusts of up to 140km/h.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

Over Taiwan

[TaiwanGuest]

I work across the street from my house and there's a live tree down over there. If this really spins in the strait for a wile, I think we'll get hit pretty hard down here.

whoo! Either the wind is rockin' the house, or there are lots of little earthquakes happening. Impressive.

[Aquawind]

whoo! Either the wind is rockin' the house, or there are lots of little earthquakes happening. Impressive.

Yeow!! I hate it when that happens.. Stay safe!

[Typhoon10]

I went to Hualin in May to see the world famous Toroko Gorge. Amazing area, its a small city bit right on the coastline. Even when we were there, had a 5+ earthquake which shut off part of the gorge. Coastline is amazing that the sea goes straight into the mountains. At Hualin there is also Taiwanese Air Force base.

I hope Taiwan isnt affected too much as its a amazing country and Typhoons/Earthquakes have serious effect. In fact, I believe the little railway that goes upto Alishan is still not operating from the last typhoon.

A questions for all the Met's, as Taiwan is quite mountaineous, all the wind speeds we are seeing are at sea level, would the wind speeds at say Alishan which is 9,000 ft above sea level be a lot worse?